east african broadband market - increasing uptake of broadband services in ethiopia, sudan, and...
DESCRIPTION
This research service encompasses an analysis of East African broadband market focusing on Ethiopia, Sudan, and Rwanda. The study includes an analysis of key market developments and trends, the market size in terms of revenue and subscribers, demand and competition, and drivers and restraints. It also investigates the deployment of new technologies in East Africa. This study identifies the market forces in the 3 countries and determines the potential growth of these countries. Three big predictions and strategic recommendations are included. The base year used for this research study is 2011 and the forecast period is from 2012 to 2017.TRANSCRIPT
East African Broadband Market Increasing Uptake of Broadband Services in Ethiopia, Sudan,
and Rwanda
M8C2-63
November 2013
2 M8C2-63
Chipo Ngongoni Research Analyst, Information and Commmunications Technology
(+27) 21 680 3271
Chi N i
Research Team
Jana Thirion Research Analyst, Information and Commmunications Technology (ICT)
(+27) 21 680 3212
J Thi i
Lead Analyst Contributing Analyst
Research Director
Mani James Regional Director, Operations Manager
(+27) 21 680 3208
M i J Ian Duvenage CBU Leader, ICT
(+27) 21 680 3275
I D
Strategic Review Committee Leader
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Section Slide Numbers
Executive Summary 4
Market Overview 10
Total Broadband Market -
• External Challenges: Drivers and Restraints 24
• Forecast and Trends 32
• Demand Analysis 42
• Market Share and Competitive Analysis 45
Ethiopia Breakdown 52
Rwanda Breakdown 63
Sudan Breakdown 75
The Last Word 87
Appendix 92
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Contents
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Executive Summary
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• The combined broadband market revenue in Ethiopia, Sudan, and Rwanda is expected to
reach $159.2 million in 2017, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.1%
between 2011 and 2017. The combined revenue will derive from 2, 465,000 broadband
subscribers.
• The combined revenue growths will be mainly driven by the increasing uptake of broadband
services and the entry of new Internet Service Providers (ISPs) in these countries. Ethiopia is
likely to open up its telecommunications sector in the short term and this will certainly have a
huge impact on the uptake of broadband services in the country.
• Sudan accounted for 53% of the combined broadband services market in the 3 countries.
• In 2011, the combined broadband revenue was $99.6 million, generated by 880,000 broadband
subscribers.
• In 2011, there were 29 broadband providers in the 3 countries. However, there was only 1
broadband provider in Ethiopia.
• Broadband providers have been deploying wireless networks such as worldwide
interoperability for microwave access (WiMAX) and Third Generation (3G) to serve end users
in the respective countries. This has enormously contributed to the increase in broadband
subscriptions.
• For example, Rwanda has had significant changes in terms of broadband services with the
entry of several ISPs and the issuance of 3G licenses to mobile operators. Source: Frost & Sullivan
Executive Summary
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Executive Summary (continued)
• Moreover, as a result of the multiple government-led initiatives, Rwanda has improved the
Internet penetration rates from 1% in 2009 to 7% in 2011.
• Broadband network coverage is still relatively low across all countries, with an average 20%
geographic coverage.
• This is indicative of a large under-serviced market and the existence of high growth potential in
the 3 countries.
• Consequently, new market participants might target areas without broadband services in the 3
countries by providing affordable tariffs to both consumers and businesses.
• For example, service providers could have regional or provincial deployments just to service
areas where the other broadband operators are not operating.
• This could help them enjoy first-mover advantages when other operators decide to launch their
network in these regions.
• Code division multiple access (CDMA) technology has emerged as an alternative access
network to digital subscriber line (DSL) and global system for mobile communications (GSM)
technologies across all these countries.
• The other technology used by ISPs is WiMAX, mainly to serve their corporate customers. Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Market Stage
Growth
Market Revenue
$99.6 M
(2011)
Market
Subscriber
880,000
(2011)
Market Size at
End of Forecast
Period
$159.2 M
(2017)
Base Year
Market Growth
Rate
8.5%
Compound
Annual Growth
Rate
8.1%
(CAGR)
Customer Price
Sensitivity
9
(scale:1 [low] to 10 [High])
Market Concentration (in terms of subscribers)
81.7%
Degree of
Technical
Change
5
(scale:1 [low] to 10 [High])
Total Broadband Market: East Africa, 2011
For a tabular version click here. Stable Increasing Decreasing
(% of base year market controlled by top 4
competitors)
Executive Summary—Market Engineering Measurements
Market Overview
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Number of
Companies
that Exited*
0
(2011)
Number of
Companies
that Entered*
1
(2011)
Number of
Competitors
29
(active market competitors in base year)
Competitor Overview
Total Addressable Market
Current
Potential Users
9.9 M
*Companies with revenue > $50 M.
Executive Summary—Market Engineering Measurements
(continued)
Stable Increasing Decreasing Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan
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2 Network expansions and government-led initiatives have increased the uptake of broadband services.
3 Ethiopia has a single ISP, therefore, the regulator is expected to issue ISP licenses in the short to medium term.
4 All incumbent fixed line operators have deployed CDMA technologies to offer broadband services.
5 Some ISPs have started to bundled broadband services with managed services in Rwanda and Sudan.
1 Mobile broadband connections have surpassed fixed broadband connections across all 3 countries.
Executive Summary—CEO’s Perspective
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Market Overview