etc technological platform / urenco & areva state

ETC TECHNOLOGICAL PLATFORM / URENCO & AREVA STATE & DEVELOPMENT FORECAST – 2018, V-1

IBRTM

1

IBRTM

TECHNOLOGY PLATFORM OF

ENRICHMENT TECHNOLOGY COMPANY.

STATUS AND DEVELOMENT PROSPECTS OF

URENCO & ORANO & ETC

VOLUME I

DESIGN & TECHNOECONOMIC PERFORMANCES

OF THE SIX GENERATIONS OF URENCO/ETC GC &

AUXILIARY EQUIPMENT

IBRTM

- INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS RELATIONS, LLC

Moscow, 2018


IBRTM

2

ABOUT INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS RELATIONS, LLC (IBRTM

)

INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS RELATIONS, LLC (IBR

TM) was set up in 1991 by a group of

researchers and engineers who previously worked at enterprises under the USSR Ministry of Atomic Power and Industry. IBR

TM is specialized in consulting & engineering along with project

management in nuclear power and nuclear fuel cycle. Leading Russian and foreign companies, as well as state organizations, are constant clients of IBR

TM. The IBR

TM successful activities are

based on high professionalism of the company staff, which implies:

Deep knowledge of technologies and operational experience in nuclear power and nuclear fuel cycle;

Knowledge of the tools for economic and investment analysis of nuclear technologies;

Experience in successful management of “nuclear” projects.

IBRTM

strives for expansion and intensification of cooperation with its constant clients and welcomes collaboration with new clients in the interests of further improvement of safety and efficiency of nuclear technologies.


IBRTM

3

PROJECT TEAM

The IBRTM

staff

Selected experts from state & private institutions


IBRTM

4

CONTENTS

About INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS RELATIONS, LLC (IBRTM

) 2

PROJECT TEAM 3

CONTENTS 4

DEFINITIONS 5

LIST OF TABLES 6

LIST OF FIGURES 8

CHAPTER 1

ANALYSIS OF TECHNICAL PERFORMANCES OF THE SIX GENERATIONS OF GC MANUFACTURED BY URENCO/ETC COMPANIES 10

CHAPTER 2 ANALYSIS OF URENCO/ETC GC DESIGN 22 CHAPTER 3

ANALYSIS OF POWER CONSUMPTION BY THE G3, TC-11, TC-12 & TC-21 GC MODELS 22

CHAPTER 4 GC RELIABILITY 25 CHAPTER 5 ANALYSIS OF MODELS TC-12 & TC-21 GC PRICES 27 APPENDIX A.1

IDENTIFICATION OF AREA BOUNDARIES ENCOMPASSING THE GEOMETRICAL DIMENSIONS OF MODELS TC-12 AND TC-21 GC 28

APPENDIX A.2

IDENTIFICATION OF THE GC NUMBER IN A SINGLE CASCADE WITHIN URENCO SELECTED PLANT PROJECTS 40

APPENDIX A.3 DESIGN ANALYSIS OF URENCO/ETC GC 49 APPENDIX A.4 CARBON FIBER FOR ETC MANUFACTURED GC 61 REFFERENCES 65


IBRTM

6

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1.1 Areas (ranges), encompassing the geometrical dimensions of models TC-12 and TC-21 of URENCO/ETC centrifuges, identified based on analysis of the available photographic and other information

Table 1.2 Estimated results of the GC number in a single cascade of UTA-1, UTA-2 plants and SBM-1001 module (NEF-LES plant, 2004 year Project)

Table 1.3 Input data and calculated results of model TC-12 GC capacity, obtained from analysis of various projects

Table 1.4 Comparative data on the dynamics of installed capacity of plant E23 of URENCO, presented in (NEF No.04-022 dated June 10, 200, and the results of the calculations with the use of IBRTM model with the measure of capacity of GC TC-12 equal to 40.0 SWU per year and with reliability factor of GC ~ 0.9935

Table 1.5 Technical specifications of model TC-12 GC

Table 1.6 URENCO GC models and their characteristics in relative units

Table 1.7 General characteristic of URENCO GC six generations

Table 1.8 Specifications of the six generations of URENCO/ETC GC

Table 1.9 Actual and IBRTM

forecasted URENCO/ETC GC service life as the 2017

Table 3.1 IBR estimate of energy consumption by various GC models and specific energy consumption of the process making use of different GC models

Table 4.1 IBR estimation of GC TC-12 and TC-21 models failure probability

Table 5.1 IBR estimate of models TC-12 and TC-21 GC price evolution

Table A.1.1 Geometrical dimensions of the elements shown in Figure A.1: results of analysis

Table A.1.2 Criteria for TC-12 GC nuclear safety analysis

Table A.1.3 Areas (ranges), encompassing the geometrical dimensions of models TC-12 and TC-21 of URENCO/ETC centrifuges, identified based on analysis of the available photographic and other information

Table A.2.1 Calculation of GC number in a cascade row of UTA-1, UTA-2 plants and SBM-1001 module

Table A.2.2 Calculated results: Total number of the sections in the cascade halls of UTA-1 and UTA-2 plants; The number of sections per cascade of UTA-1 and UTA-2 plants; The number of cascades in the cascade hall of UTA-1 and UTA-2 plants.

Table A.2.3 Calculated results of the number of GC in a single cascade of UTA-1, UTA-2 plants and SBM-1001 module


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7

Table A.3.1 Structure of bending resonances of the TC-12 type rotors with a uniform rotor of the T-800 fiber and rotor with bellows (resonance frequencies in view of gyro effect are given after a slash )

Table A.4.1 Characteristics of high-strength carbon fiber fabricated by Toray

Table A.4.2 Characteristics of high-strength carbon fiber fabricated by Toray

Table A.4.3 Most probable makes of carbon fibers used in the structure of GC manufactured by ETC and formula of their laying


IBRTM

8

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1.1 Relative linear velocity of the rotor revolution and rotor relative length, as a function of URENCO centrifuge generation

Figure 3.1 Evolution of specific energy consumption on URENCO Deutschland GmbH site in 1989-2004, kW x hour / SWU

Figure 3.2 Evolution of specific energy consumption on URENCO Deutschland GmbH site in 1999-2014, kW x hour / SWU

Figure A.1.1 Figure from URENCO Annual Report 2005, page 18

Figure A.1.2 Centrifuges manufactured by ETC

Figure A.1.3 TC-12 gas centrifuges manufactured by ETC



Figure A.1.6 Passage between TC-12 centrifuge sections

Figure A.1.7 Passage between TC-12 centrifuge sections

Figure A.1.8 Start of winding in the video clip, the carriage (marked out by red) moves to the right

Figure A.1.9 The carriage has turned round and is moving to the left

Figure A.1.10 The pattern of forming the strengthening winding on the end of composite tube (Patent EP0406596B1)

Figure A.1.11 Video fragments

Figure A.2.1 Separation Building Module, first floor (The National Enrichment Facility Project, 2004)

Figure A.2.2 The SP4 plant cascade hall

Figure A.2.3 The UTA-1 plant cascade hall

Figure A.2.4 General view of UTA-1 plant and standard module layout

Figure A.2.5 General view of UTA-2 plant and standard module layout

Figure A.2.6 Fragment of Process Service Area at SBM plant of National Enrichment Facility (2004 year Project)

Figure A.3.1 Structural element as a fiber-reinforced cylindrical tube: US Patent 5134003, dated 28.07.1992, Uranit Co. (German Patent DE4100816 dated 14.01.1991)

Figure A.3.2 Two methods of bellows fastening for joining two composite tubes

Figure A.3.3 Possible technology of mounting a steel bellows on a composite tube

Figure A.3.4 Machining of an end element blank


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9

Figure A.3.5 Technology of metal flange parts mounting on a composite tube

Figure A.3.6 Manufacturing technology and design of (rotor) drive plate of an ultracentrifuge, inertial accumulator or other similar device

Figure A.3.7 The motor working parameters, effective power and efficiency depending on voltage

Figure A.3.8 Example of magnetization lines pattern

Figure A.3.9 TC-12 GC upper section

Figure A.3.10 A drawing to Patent DE2123654 dated 13.05.1971

Figure A.3.11 Centrifuge lower dampers (supports)


IBRTM 65

REFERENCES

[1] Safety Evaluation Report for the Claiborne Enrichment Center, Homer, Louisiana, Docket No. 70-3070 Louisiana Energy Services, L.P., NUREG-1491 [2] National Enrichment Facility, Safety Analysis Report, Revision 2, July 2004 [3] Eagle Rock Enrichment Facility Environmental Report, Revision 0, December 2008 [4] Eagle Rock Enrichment Facility Environmental Report, Revision 0, April 2009 [5] Complementary Safety Margin Assessment URENCO Netherlands BV [6] Section 4.2 - “Gas Centrifuges” from monograph “Isotopes: Properties, Production, Application”, 2000 (in Russian) [6] Centrifuge technology: the future for enrichment, Pat Upson, World Nuclear Association Annual Symposium, 5-7 September 2001 – London [7] Centrifuge technology: the future for enrichment, Pat Upson, World Nuclear Association Annual Symposium, 5-7 September 2001 – London [8] Umwelterklarung Zweite Aktualisierung URENCO Deutschland GmbH Urananreicherungsanlage Gronau, 2005 [9] Umwelterklärung Erste Aktualisierung URENCO Deutschland GmbH Urananreicherungsanlage Gronau 2015 Berichtsjahr 2014) [10] URENCO Nederland B.V. Uitbreiding capaciteit naar 6.200 tSW/jaar Drienemansweg 1 te Almelo, Milieueffectrapport, Definitief, 15 December 2010 [11] The Enriching Troika. A History of URENCO to the Year 2000. R.В.Kehoe. © Urenco Limited, 2002. [12] On a Formula to Evaluate the Separative Power of Long Gas Centrifuges V. D. Borisevich, V. D. Borman, S. V. Bogovalov, V. A. Kislov, V. N. Tronin, I. V. Tronin, V. I. Abramov, and S. V. Yupatov, National Research Nuclear University MEPhI, Moscow, Russian Federation, Separation Science and Technology, 49: 329–334, 2014 Copyright Taylor & Francis Group, LLC ISSN: 0149-6395 print=1520-5754 online DOI: 10.1080/01496395.2013.851697 [13] Separative Power of an Optimized Concurrent Gas Centrifuge, Sergey Bogovalov, Vladimir Borman, National Research Nuclear University (MEPHI), Nuclear Engineering and Technology, Volume 48, Issue 3, June 2016, Pages 719–726 [14] Umwelterklärung, URENCO Deutschland GmbH, Urananreicherungsanlage Gronau, Berichtsjahr 2016, 2017

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1738573316300365

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1738573316300365

ETC TECHNOLOGICAL PLATFORM / URENCO & AREVA STATE & DEVELOPMENT FORECAST - 2018, V2

IBRTM 1

IBRTM

TECHNOLOGY PLATFORM OF

ENRICHMENT TECHNOLOGY COMPANY.

STATUS AND DEVELOMENT PROSPECTS OF

URENCO & ORANO & ETC

VOLUME II

STATUS AND DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS OF

URENCO & AREVA & ETC

IBRTM

- INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS RELATIONS LLC

Moscow, 2018


IBRTM 2

ABOUT INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS RELATIONS, LLC (IBRTM

)

INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS RELATIONS, LLC (IBR

TM) was set up in 1991 by a group of

researchers and engineers who previously worked at enterprises under the USSR Ministry of Atomic Power and Industry. IBR

TM is specialized in consulting & engineering along with project

management in nuclear power and nuclear fuel cycle. Leading Russian and foreign companies, as well as state organizations, are constant clients of IBR

TM. The IBR

TM successful activities are

based on high professionalism of the company staff, which implies:

Deep knowledge of technologies and operational experience in nuclear power and nuclear fuel cycle;

Knowledge of the tools for economic and investment analysis of nuclear technologies;

Experience in successful management of “nuclear” projects.

IBRTM

strives for expansion and intensification of cooperation with its constant clients and welcomes collaboration with new clients in the interests of further improvement of safety and efficiency of nuclear technologies.


IBRTM 3

PROJECT TEAM

The IBRTM

staff

Selected experts from state & private institutions


IBRTM 4

CONTENTS

About INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS RELATIONS, LLC (IBRTM

) 2

PROJECT TEAM 3

CONTENTS 4

DEFINITIONS 5

LIST OF TABLES 6

LIST OF FIGURES 8

CHAPTER 1 IBR

TM MODEL OF URENCO & AREVA & ETC, INITIAL DATA, TESTING 11

CHAPTER 2 URENCO BACKGROUND, STATUS & DEVELOPMENT FORECAST UP TO

2035 13 CHAPTER 3

AREVA ENRICHMENT BUSINESS UNIT BACKGROUND, STATE & DEVELOPMENT FORECAST UP TO 2035 66

CHAPTER 4 ENRICHMENT TECHNOLOGY COMPANY (ETC) BACKGROUND, STATUS &

DEVELOPMENT FORECAST UP TO 2035 77 APPENDIX A.1 PROCEDURES TO DETERMINE INITIAL DATA FOR THE MODEL 83 APPENDIX A.2

OTHER MANUFACTURERS AND SUPPLIERS OF AUXILIARY EQUIPMENT FOR URENCO AND AREVA URANIUM ENRICHMENT PLANTS 89

APPENDIX A.3 URENCO’S TAILS ASSAY ANALYSIS: BACKGROUND, STATE &

FORECAST. URENCO’S DEPLETED URANIUM STRATEGY ANALYSIS: BACKGROUND, STATE & FORECAST RESULTS OF EUP MARKET FORECAST DYNAMIC PATTERN OF URENCO AND AREVA CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT UP TO YEAR 2035 90

REFERENCES 97


IBRTM 6

LIST OF TABLES

Table 2.1 Data on rated operational capacities of separate URENCO sites and of URENCO as a whole obtained with the aid of the IBR

TM model as compared with data in annual

URENCO reports

Table 2.2 Dynamics of URENCO’s main financial and economic performances (absolute values)

Table 2.3 Dynamics of URENCO’s main financial and economic performances (specific values)

Table 2.4 IBRTM

forecast of URENCO capacity development

Table 2.5 IBR forecast of URENCO share at the world market of SWU production, EUP production and EUP supplies to the final customers

Table 2.6 Current status of UTA-1 plant (2017)

Table 2.7 Current status of UTA-2 plant (2017)

Table 2.8 Activities to implement the development strategy of URENCO Deutschland GmbH (UD) in the period of up to 2035 (Option, if Gronau site development doesn’t stop)

Table 2.9 Current state of SP4 plant (2017)

Table 2.10 Current state of SP5 plant (2017)

Table 2.11 Activities to implement the development strategy of URENCO Nederland B.V. (UNL) in the period up to 2035

Table 2.12 Current state of A3 plant (2017)

Table 2.13 Current state of E22 plant (2017)

Table 2.14 Current state of E23 plant (2017)

Table 2.15 Activities to implement the development strategy of URENCO UK Ltd. (UUK) in the period up to 2035

Table 2.16 Current state of LES plant (2017)

Table 2.17 Actions to be taken to implement strategic plans of URENCO USA Inc. development through 2035

Table 3.1 Dynamics of financial and economic performance of AREVA Enrichment Business Unit (a total for three companies which are part of Business Unit)

Table 3.2 Current state of GB-II plant, phase I (2017)

Table 3.2 IBRTM

forecast of market demands for EUP from AREVA Enrichment Business Unit and sources of EUP supplies

Table 3.4 IBRTM

forecast of AREVA Enrichment Business Unit capacity development

Table 3.5 IBR forecast of ORANO share at the world market of SWU production, EUP production and EUP supplies to the final customers

Table 4.1 Financial and economic performances of ETC


IBRTM 7

Table A.1.1 Structures of the investments in the construction and commissioning of the plant using the TC-12 technology (in term of 2017 year prices), EUR per installed SWU

Table A.1.2 Structure of the investments in the construction and commissioning of the plant using the TC-21 technology (in term of 2017 year prices), EUR per installed SWU

Table A.1.3 Structure of the investments in the plant upgrading (in term of 2017 year prices), EUR per installed SWU

Table A.1.4 Structure of the investments in the plant upgrading (in term of 2017 year prices), EUR per installed SWU

Table A.1.5 Results of analyzing value of efficient specific investments into installed capacity of plants using ETC technology

Table A.2.1 Auxiliary equipment for uranium isotope separation plants and its manufacturers (URENCO/ETC technology)

Table A.3.1 Contract’s terms for URENCO’s depleted uranium enrichment in Russia

Table A.3.2 URENCO’s depleted uranium volume and quality supplied to Russia in 1999-2009 for the enrichment

Table A.3.3 Estimation of annual average tails assay at URENCO Gronau site in 1996-2014

Table A.3.4 URENCO’s products (EUP, NU) production, and DU generation and utilization in 2004-2016


IBRTM 8

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 2.1 Corporate structure of URENCO

Figure 2.2 Dynamics of URENCO’s Installed Capacity, Nominal Capacity, Nominal Operating Capacity and Output in 1973 - 2000, mln. SWU per year

Figure 2.3 Dynamics of URENCO’s Installed Capacity, Nominal Capacity, Nominal Operating Capacity and Output in 2001 - 2017, mln. SWU per year

Figure 2.4 URENCO’s Nominal Operating Capacity dynamics in 1973 – 2000, as calculated using the IBR

TM model, compared against URENCO’s data, mln. SWU per year


TM model, compared against URENCO’s data, mln. SWU per year

Figure 2.6 Dynamics of URENCO’s GC fleet in 1973-2000, % of total quantity


Figure 2.8 Distribution of URENCO’s Capacity by GC models in 1973-2000, % of total capacity

Figure 2.9 Distribution of URENCO’s Capacity by GC models in 2001-2017, % of total capacity

Figure 2.10 Relation of Nominal Operating Capacity to original Installed Capacity of URENCO’s cascades in operation in 1973-2000, % of Installed Capacity


Figure 2.12 URENCO’s dynamics of regional sales, mln. €

Figure 2.13 URENCO’s dynamics of regional sales, mln. SWU

Figure 2.14 URENCO debt maturity profile, € mln

Figure 2.15 IBRTM

-forecasted development dynamics of URENCO for the period up to 2035, mln. SWU

Figure 2.16 IBRTM

- forecasted capital expenditures of URENCO for the period up to 2035, € mln.

Figure 2.17 Dynamics of URENCO’s GC fleet in the period of 2018-2035, % of total quantity

Figure 2.18 Distribution of URENCO’s capacity by GC models in the period of 2018-2035, % of total capacity


Figure 2.20 Overall view of the URENCO Deutschland GmbH (UD) site

Figure 2.21 Installed Capacity, Nominal Operating Capacity and Output dynamics of URENCO Deutschland GmbH (UD) in 1985 - 2000, mln. SWU per year

Figure 2.22 Installed Capacity, Nominal Operating Capacity and Output dynamics of URENCO Deutschland GmbH (UD) in 2001 - 2017, mln. SWU per year

Figure 2.23 Nominal Operating Capacity dynamics of URENCO Deutschland GmbH (UD) in 1985 –


IBRTM 9

2000, as calculated using the IBRTM

model, compared against URENCO’s data, mln. SWU per year

Figure 2.24 Nominal Operating Capacity dynamics of URENCO Deutschland GmbH (UD) in 2001 – 2017, as calculated using the IBR

TM model, compared against URENCO’s data, mln.

SWU per year

Figure 2.25 Output dynamics of URENCO Deutschland GmbH (UD) in 1995 – 2017, as calculated using the IBR

TM model, compared against the data of URENCO Deutschland GmbH

(UD), mln. SWU per year

Figure 2.26 IBRTM

-predicted development of URENCO Deutschland GmbH (UD) in 2017-2035, mln. SWU per year

Figure 2.27 Overall view of the URENCO Nederland B.V. (UNL) site

Figure 2.28 Installed Capacity, Nominal Operating Capacity and Output dynamics of URENCO Nederland B.V. (UNL) in 1973 - 2000, mln. SWU per year

Figure 2.29 Installed Capacity, Nominal Operating Capacity and Output dynamics of URENCO Nederland B.V. (UNL) in 2001 - 2017, mln. SWU per year

Figure 2.30 Nominal Operating Capacity dynamics of URENCO Nederland B.V. (UNL) in 1973 – 2000, as calculated using the IBR


SWU per year

Figure 2.31 Nominal Operating Capacity dynamics of URENCO Nederland B.V. (UNL) in 2001 – 2017, as calculated using the IBR


SWU per year

Figure 2.32 IBRTM

-forecasted development dynamics of URENCO Nederland B.V. (UNL) in 2017 – 2035, mln. SWU per annum

Figure 2.33 Overall view of A3 plant at the site of URENCO UK Ltd. (UUK)

Figure 2.34 Overall view of E22 plant at the site of URENCO UK Ltd. (UUK)

Figure 2.35 Overall view of E23 plant at the site of URENCO UK Ltd. (UUK)

Figure 2.36 Installed Capacity, Nominal Operating Capacity and Output dynamics of URENCO UK Ltd. (UUK) in 1973 - 2000, mln. SWU per year

Figure 2.37 Installed Capacity, Nominal Operating Capacity and Output dynamics of URENCO UK Ltd. (UUK) in 2001 - 2017, mln. SWU per year

Figure 2.38 Nominal Operating Capacity dynamics of URENCO UK Ltd. (UUK) in 1982 – 2000, as calculated using the IBR

TM model, compared against URENCO’s data, mln. SWU per

year

Figure 2.39 Nominal Operating Capacity dynamics of URENCO UK Ltd. (UUK) in 2001 – 2017, as calculated against the IBR

TM model, compared against URENCO’s data, mln. SWU per

year

Figure 2.40 IBRTM

-forecasted dynamics of URENCO UK Ltd. (UUK) in 2018 – 2035, mln. SWU per year

Figure 2.41 Overall view of URENCO USA Facility’s plant site

Figure 2.42 Installed Capacity, Nominal Operating Capacity and Output dynamics of URENCO USA Inc. (UUS) in 2010 - 2017, mln. SWU per annum


IBRTM 10

Figure 2.43 IBRTM

-forecasted development dynamics of URENCO USA Inc. (UUS) in 2018 – 2035, mln. SWU per year

Figure 3.1 George Besse II South Unit

Figure 3.2 George Besse II North Unit

Figure 3.3 Installed Capacity, Nominal Operating Capacity and Output dynamics of AREVA Enrichment Business Unit (George Besse II) in 2011 - 2017, mln. SWU per year

Figure 3.4 Nominal Operating Capacity dynamics of AREVA Enrichment Business Unit (George Besse II) for 2011 – 2017, as calculated using the IBR

TM model, compared against

AREVA’s data, mln. SWU per year

Figure 3.5 IBRTM

-forecasted development dynamics of AREVA Enrichment Business Unit for the period until 2035, mln. SWU

Figure 3.6 IBRTM

-forecasted capital expenditures of Enrichment Business Unit for the period until 2035, € mln.

Figure 3.7 Relation of the Nominal Operating Capacity to the original Installed Capacity the AREVA Enrichment Business Unit cascades in operation in 2011-2035, % of Installed Capacity

Figure 4.1 Dynamics of GC models TC-12 and TC-21 production, pieces per year

Figure 4.2 Dynamics of GC models TC-12 and TC-21 production, SWU per year



Figure A.3.1 URENCO Gronau site feeding in 1996-2005

Figure A.3.2 URENCO Gronau site SWU production & feeding dynamics in 2001-2016


IBRTM 15

Figures 2.2-2.3 show the dynamics of the URENCO development in the period up through the year 2017.

Figure 2.2 Dynamics of URENCO’s Installed Capacity, Nominal Operating Capacity and Output in 1973 - 2000,

mln. SWU per year

Figure 2.3 Dynamics of URENCO’s Installed Capacity, Nominal Operating Capacity and Output in 2001 - 2017,

mln. SWU per year

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Installed Capacity (IBR Data) Nominal Operating Capacity (IBR Data) Production (IBR Data)


IBRTM 16

Figures 2.4-2.5 compare the dynamics of URENCO’s Nominal Operating Capacity calculated using the IBR

TM model against URENCO’s data.


TM model,

compared against URENCO’s data, mln. SWU per year


TM model,

compared against URENCO’s data, mln. SWU per year Table 2.1 gives a digital comparison of data on rated operational capacities of separate URENCO sites and of URENCO as a whole, obtained with the aid of the IBR

TM model, with data presented by URENCO.

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Nominal Operating Capacity (IBR Data) Nominal Operating Capacity (URENCO Data)


IBRTM 17

Table 2.1

Data on rated operational capacities of separate URENCO sites and of URENCO as a whole obtained with the use of the IBRTM

model as compared with data in annual URENCO reports

URENCO

Deutschland GmbH (UD) URENCO

Nederland B.V. (UNL) URENCO

UK Ltd. (UUK) URENCO

USA Inc. (UUS) URENCO

Year

IBR Data,

Mln. SWU

URENCO Data,

Mln. SWU

IBR Data,

Mln. SWU

URENCO Data,

Mln. SWU

IBR Data,

Mln. SWU

URENCO Data,

Mln. SWU

IBR Data,

Mln. SWU

URENCO Data,

Mln. SWU

IBR Data,

Mln. SWU

URENCO Data,

Mln. SWU

2006 1.825 1.800 3.499 3.500 3.765 3.750 0.000 0.000 9.089 9.000

2007 1.811 1.800 3.602 3.600 4.187 4.200 0.000 0.000 9.600 9.600

2008 2.178 2.200 3.804 3.800 4.998 5.000 0.000 0.000 10.980 11.000

2009 2.778 2.750 4.432 4.400 5.073 5.050 0.000 0.000 12.283 12.200

2010 3.183 3.200 4.595 4.600 5.040 5.000 0.196 0.200 13.014 13.000

2011 4.213 4.200 4.985 5.000 5.007 5.000 0.391 0.400 14.597 14.600

2012 4.178 4.200 5.489 5.500 4.975 5.000 2.194 2.200 16.836 16.900

2013 4.142 4.130 5.412 5.400 4.942 4.900 3.165 3.200 17.661 17.600

2014 4.107 4.100 5.414 5.400 4.909 4.900 3.711 3.700 18.141 18.100

2015 4.071 4.100 5.376 5.400 4.877 4.900 4.634 4.600 18.958 19.000

2016 4.036 4.000 5.378 5.400 4.729 4.700 4.692 4.700 18.834 18.800

2017 4.000 4.000 5.340 5.300 4.697 4.700 4.844 4.800 18.881 18.800


IBRTM 18

Figures 2.6-2.9 show the characteristic of URENCO’s GC fleet in 1973-2016.



0.0

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G1+SNOR LEC G2+CNOR G3 4M 3LC TC-10 TC-11 TC-12 TC-16 TC-21

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120.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

LEC G2+CNOR G3 4M 3LC TC-10 TC-11 TC-12 TC-16 TC-21


IBRTM 19

Figure 2.8 Distribution of URENCO’s Capacity by GC models in 1973-2000,

% of total capacity

Figure 2.9 Distribution of URENCO’s Capacity by GC models in 2001-2017,

% of total capacity

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



IBRTM 20

Figures 2.10-2.11 show the relation of Nominal Operating Capacity to original Installed Capacity of URENCO’s cascades in operation.

Figure 2.10 Relation of Nominal Operating Capacity to original Installed Capacity of URENCO’s cascades in

operation in 1973-2000, % of Installed Capacity

Figure 2.11 Relation of Nominal Operating Capacity to original Installed Capacity of URENCO’s cascades in

operation in 2001-2017, % of Installed Capacity

82.0

84.0

86.0

88.0

90.0

92.0

94.0

96.0

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

Nominal Opearating Capacity / Installed Capacity

80.0

82.0

84.0

86.0

88.0

90.0

92.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Nominal Opearating Capacity / Installed Capacity


IBRTM 22

Table 2.3

Dynamics of URENCO’s main financial and economic performances (specific values)

Year

Specific revenue from sales of goods and

services, € / SWU

Specific EBITDA, € / SWU

Specific cash generated from

operations, € / SWU

Specific net income, € / SWU

Specific SWU cost5,

€ / SWU

2008 109.3 63.6 52.0 25.3 64.5

2009 96.6 56.6 58.0 29.6 54.6

2010 100.2 64.4 68.3 30.8 53.6

2011 94.6 57.0 65.6 26.1 57.4 / 65.9

2012 101.7 64.4 75.3 25.5 60.9 / 69.6

2013 87.7 56.1 51.0 19.5 63.2 / 70.5

2014 89.7 59.6 54.5 22.5 60.7 / 69.0

2015 101.3 62.8 64.6 24.3 65.4 / 75.3

2016 100.2 61.9 64.9 15.0 58.6 / 66.0

2017 102.3 66.4 69.8 27.3 52.7 / 63.2

5 Без учета / с учетом отчислений на создание и эксплуатацию Tails Management Facility (TMF).


IBRTM 35

Table 2.5

IBR forecast of URENCO share at the world market of SWU production, EUP production and EUP supplies to the final customers

URENCO

Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

Share at the world market

of SWU production, % 28.9 28.3 27.7 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.2 25.2 24.5 23.9 23.5 23.3 23.2 23.1 22.8 22.5 21.8 21.4 21.1


of EUP production, % 34.8 34.4 34.5 34.5 33.3 32.8 32.4 31.2 30.8 30.8 29.3 28.4 27.2 26.9 26.2 26.6 25.9 25.5 24.9


of EUP supplies to the final

customers (with account of

EUP receipt from the other

enrichers), %

34.8 34.4 34.5 34.5 33.3 32.8 32.4 31.2 30.8 30.8 29.3 28.4 27.2 26.9 26.2 26.6 25.9 25.5 24.9


IBRTM 41

2.3 Background, state-of-the-art and forecast of URENCO Deutschland GmbH (UD) Development Figure 2.20 gives an overall view of the URENCO Deutschland GmbH (UD) site. At present time, there are two plants, UTA-1 and UTA-2, in operation at the site of URENCO Deutschland GmbH (UD).

Table 2.6

Current status of UTA-1 plant (2017)

Cascade hall serial number Main equipment

(GC model) Operation years

11

1 G3 1985 - 2009

2 G3 1985/1986 - 2009

3 G3 1986 - 2010

4 G3 1987 - 2010

5 TC-11 TC-12

1988/1990 – 2011 1991/1994 ~ 2021/2024

6 TC-12 1994/1996 ~ 2024/2026

7 TC-12 TC-21

1997/2000 ~ 2027/2030 2000 ~ 2030

8 TC-12 TC-21

2000/2006 ~ 2030/2036 2001/2005 ~ 2031/2035

Table 2.7

Current status of UTA-2 plant (2017)

Cascade hall serial number

Main equipment (GC model)

Operation years

1 TC-21 2008/2009 ~ 2038/2039

2 TC-21 2009 ~ 2039

3 TC-21 2010 ~ 2040

4 TC-21 2011 ~ 2041

5 TC-21 2011 ~ 2041

Figures 2.21-2.25 present data that characterize the installed capacity, nominal operating capacity and output dynamics of URENCO Deutschland GmbH (UD) in 1985-2017.

11

Here and below, in case the date of cascade's decommissioning is indicated after 2014, this date is forecasted.


IBRTM 46

Nevertheless, if URENCO does not abandon the development of the site in Gronau, then the following activities will be performed on the site in Gronau until 2035 - Table 2.8.

Table 2.8

Activities to implement the development strategy of

URENCO Deutschland GmbH (UD) in the period of up to 2035 (Option, if Gronau site development doesn’t stop)

Plant Development (forecast)

UTA-1 Option 1 – UTA-1 plant modernization. Option 2 - Termination of UTA-1 plant operation by 2035. Decommissioning (decontamination and dismantling) after 2035.

UTA-2

The project of the UTA-2 plant provided for construction and placing into service of the plant two phases [8]. According to the UTA-2 plant project the first and second phases will have a shared UF6 Handling Area. The project provided for the TC-21 technology to be used in the first phase of the UTA-2 plant, the TC-12 technology – in the second phase. The first phase of the UTA-2 plant (made operational in 2008-2011) is based on the GC TC-21 technology. UTA-2 plant first phase nominal operation capacity is 2.85 mln. SWU. UTA-2 plant second phase nominal operation capacity is 1.15 mln. SWU. Option 1 - UTA-1 plant modernization. UTA-2 second phase will be not demanded until 2035. UTA-2 plant second phase will be not in demand until 2035. Option 2 - Termination of UTA-1 plant operation by 2035. Decommissioning (decontamination and dismantling) after 2035. Construction and commissioning UTA-2 plant second phase started from 2021.


IBRTM 62

2.5 Background, state-of-the-art and forecast of URENCO USA Inc. (UUSA) Development

Figure 2.41 Overall view of URENCO USA Facility’s plant site

Table 2.16

Current state of URENCO USA Facility LES (2017)

Module Main equipment

(GC model) Operation years Notes

SBM-1001/1002 TC-12 2010/2013 – 2040/2043 All GC cascades are in

operation.

SBM-1003/1004 TC-21 2012/2014 – 2043/2044 All GC cascades are in

operation.

SBM-1005/1006 TC-21 2015/2023 – 2044/2053

All GC cascades in SBM-1005 are in operation.

10 GC cascades out of 12 are installed in SBM-1006. No one of GC cascades in operation in

SBM-1006.


IBRTM 69

Table 3.2

Current state of GB-II facility, phase 1 (2017)

Module Basic equipment

(GC model) Year of

commissioning Note

South Unit 1 TC-12 2011 ~ 2041

South Unit 2 TC-12 2012 ~ 2042

South Unit 3 TC-12 2012/2013 ~ 2042/2043

South Unit 4 TC-12 2013 ~ 2043

North Unit 1 TC-12 2012/2013 ~ 2042/2043

North Unit 2 TC-12 2013/2014 ~ 2043/2044

North Unit 3 TC-12 2014/2015 ~ 2044/2045

North Unit 4 TC-12 2015/2017 ~ 2045/2047 8 GC cascades out of 16 are installed and in

operation.

It proceeds from IBR

TM analysis that 120 cascades of the GC of TC-12+ of 128 cascades envisaged by

design have been installed in cascade halls of GB-II as of the end of 2017. 120 cascades of the GC of TC-12+ are in operation (2017). Figure 3.3 presents the evolution dynamics of ORANO GB-II capacity in the period up to the year 2017 inclusively.


IBRTM 74

Table 3.5

IBR forecast of ORANO share at the world market of SWU production, EUP production and EUP supplies to the final customers

ORANO

Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

Share at the world market of

SWU production, %

11.6 11.3 11.0 10.7 10.6 10.5 10.3 10.1 10.0 9.9 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.8 10.2 10.6 10.7

Share at the world market of

EUP production, %

16.6 15.4 15.2 14.1 14.3 13.9 13.1 12.7 12.1 11.9 11.5 12.1 11.9 11.8 11.3 10.7 11.2 11.5 12.5


of EUP supplies to the final

customers (with account of

EUP receipt from the other

enrichers), %

19.0 17.7 17.5 17.0 17.2 16.7 16.4 15.9 15.3 14.9 14.1 14.5 14.2 14.1 13.4 12.8 12.4 12.6 13.6


IBRTM 79

4.3 GC production by ETC in 2004-2017



0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TC-12, pieces per year TC-21, pieces per year

0

500 000

1 000 000

1 500 000

2 000 000

2 500 000

3 000 000

3 500 000

4 000 000

4 500 000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

SWU per year

ETC TECHNOLOGICAL PLATFORM / URENCO & AREVA STATE & DEVELOPMENT FORECAST, V-2, 2017

IBRTM 97

REFERENCES

[1] Uranium Enrichment – Update from URENCO, World Nuclear Fuel Market, Istanbul, Paul Harding, Executive Director Commercial, URENCO Enrichment Company, 11 June 2013 [2] The Enriching Troika. A History of URENCO to the Year 2000. R.В.Kehoe. © Urenco Limited, 2002. [3] NATIONAL ENRICHMENT AFACILITY, June 10, 2004, NEF#04-022 [4] European Communities — Commission, EUR 11486 —Uranium enrichment by gas centrifuge, I. D. Heriot, Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities 1988 [5] Umwelterklarung Zweite Aktualisierung URENCO Deutschland GmbH Urananreicherungsanlage Gronau, 2012 [6] Safety Evaluation Report for the Claibome Enrichment Center, Homer, Louisiana, RECEIVED FEB0 3 1994, OSTI, Docket No. 70-3070, Louisiana Energy Services, L.P., U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards, January 1994 [7] Gronauer Nachrichten Feb. 14, 2005 [8] Urananreicherungsanlage Gronau Kurzbeschreibung des Endausbaus und der voraussichtlichen Auswirkungen auf die Umgebung, Stand: Dezember 2002 [9] URENCO Nederland B.V. Uitbreiding capaciteit naar 6.200 tSW/jaar Drienemansweg, Definitief 15 December 2010 [10] Nuclear Engineering International, October 8, 2014

etc technological platform / urenco & areva state

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