ET2050 Transport Trends and Scenarios

Michael WegenerSpiekermann & Wegener (S&W)

ET2050 Project Group Meeting, Brussels, 19 March 2012

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EU transport trends 1995-2010

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Expected transport trends (Germany)

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Transport in ET2050 scenarios

Because of the importance of transport for spatialdevelopment, transport should be a component of all ET2050 scenarios.

The transport component of the baseline scenarioand the exploratory scenarios should consist of twokinds of assumptions:• assumptions about developments exogenous to transport and • assumptions about European transport policy.

However, assumptions about the impacts of these assumptions should not be made: the prediction oftheir impacts should be left to the models.

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Baseline scenario: exogenous developments

For the baseline scenario in transport the followingassumptions about exogenous developments willhave to be made:• Economy: assumptions about the speed of recov-

ery of the European economy• Energy: assumptions about the speed of energy

price increases• Climate: assumptions about policies to achieve

the CO2 reduction targets of the EU

• Demography: assumptions about immigration policies within and into the EU

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Baseline scenario: transport policy

For the baseline scenario in transport the followingassumptions about transport policy will have to be made:• Will the new TEN-T Guidelines come into effect?• To what degree will the core network defined in

the Guidelines be implemeted by 2030? • To what degree will the comprehensive network

defined in them be implemented by 2050?• Or will the effects of the economic and fiancial crisis

lead to a shift of transport investments towards growth-oriented projects?

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Exploratory scenarios: transport policy

For the definition of the exploratory scenarios, thefollowing options in transport policy exist:• Transport infrastructure: assumptions about the

selection of TEN-T projects: - priority to major metropolitan areas?- priority to small and medium-sized cities?- priority to rural/peripheral regions?- priority to road or rail?• Transport demand management: assumptions

about positive or negative monetary incentives, such as fuel taxes or road user charges

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Wegener, M. (2012): Thematic Report on Transport. Draft 12/03/2012. Dortmund: Spiekermann & Wegener Urban and Regional Research. http://www.et2050.eu/ europe_2050/TechNotes/ET2050_DiscNote17_Transport_Report_(v12032012).pdf

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