et2050 new step towards scenarios

ET2050New Step towards Scenarios

TPG Meeting Bruxelles March 2012

Most likely scenario

Worse-Scenario

SPSP / Infographic Group United Kingdom view by Alessandro Augiri ex. Flows?

According to Project Specifications:

This scenario provides an image of the European territory in which economic and population growth as well as public investments are mainly stimulated to take place within maincorridors. Europe of the Flows is characterised by strong connections between cities and transport nodes that structure the European territory. Political focus lies on issues such as enhancing connections and long distance networks and global integration

SPSP / Infographic Group Netherlands // Paul van Hemert ex. Cities?


This scenario provides an image of the European territory in which economic and population growth as well as public investments are mainly stimulated to take place within existing cities; cities that have a role as driving forces in the global, national and/or regional level. Europe of the Cities is characterised by economically strong and compact cities that structure the European territory. Political focus lies on issues such as intensified use of urban space, strong preservation of open space, reduction of long-distance traffic

ex. Regions?


This scenario provides an image of the European territory in which economic and population growth as well as public investments mainly take place on the basis of specific regional identities and strengths. Europe of the Regions is characterised by strong urban and rural territories that form a mosaic of different regions and types of territories with strong identities. Political focus lies on issues such as regional self-reliance, small-scale development and landscape protection.

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1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Consistent Likely Desirable

CITIES FLOWS REGIONS

Initial Assessment: Opinions of the ET2050 experts

Next Assessment: Opinions of the Krakow Seminar experts

Jacques Robert (2011) Scenario territoral-policy matrix

Michael Wegener (2012) based on Jacques Robert (2011)

Political/economic framework

Scale Scenario

orientation A Global

integration

B Euro-crisis

C Fortress Europe

D Energy scarcity

1 European Promotion of competitive metropolitan areas

A1 B1 C1 D1

2 Transnational /macro- regional

Promotion of macro-regional territorial integration

A2 B2 C2 D2

3 Regional Promotion of endo-genous regional potentials

A3 B3 C3 D3

4 Subregional/ local

Promotion of territorial and social cohesion

A4 B4 C4 D4


Scale Scenario


integration

B Euro-crisis

C Fortress Europe

D Energy scarcity


A1 B1 C1 D1



A2 B2 C2 D2


A3 B3 C3 D3



A4 B4 C4 D4

3/ National

Michael Wegener (2012) based on Jacques Robert (2011)


Scale Scenario


integration

B Euro-crisis

C Fortress Europe

D Energy scarcity


A1 B1 C1 D1



A2 B2 C2 D2


A3 B3 C3 D3



A4 B4 C4 D4

REGIONS

CITIES

FLOWSTOWNS

Local differencié Archipel éclaté

Polycentrisme maillé

Centralisme renové

Territorial scenarios for France “Amenager la France” (DATAR, AEBK 1999)

SustainableGrowth

(Growingwithinlimits)

ResilientDevelopment

(New Welfare)

UnhealthyGrowth

(Growingwithout

limits)

Declineand/or collapse

I II

IIIIV

PASHMINA Paradigm Shift AnalyzerDO IT FAST

DO IT SLOW

DO IT TOGETHER

DO IT

ALONE

The Future of Internet

ENERGY & INTERNET

CONVERGENCE

SOCIAL INTERNET

SURFING ALONE

INTERNET DISCONNECTION

I II

IIIIV

DO IT

TOGETHERDO IT ALONE

DO IT FAST

DO IT SLOW

Internet Infrastructure& Regulation

Internet UseBehaviour

The Future of Global Governance

GLOBAL CONSTITUTION

LEGAL BORDERS

LEGAL INTERNET

GOVERNANCEBREAKDOWN

I II

IIIIV

PUBLICPRIVATE

INTERNATIONAL

NATIONAL

Global vs Regional-ledGovernance

Public vs Private-ledGovernance

The Future of Population Settlement

DEMOGRAPHIC BOOM

(Fast growing population)

DEMOGRAPHIC STAGNATION(Decliningpopulation

compensated by immigration)

DEMOGRAPHIC PRESSURE

(push& pull factors leadingtoemigration)

DEMOGRAPHIC DECAY

(Ageing& shrinking population)

I II

IIIIV

POSITIVENEGATIVE

HIGH

(above substitution)Fertility Rate

Net Immigration

LOW

(below substitution)

…

FUTURE PATTERNS RECOGNITIONSustainable

Growth(Growingwithin

limits)


(New Welfare)

UnhealthyGrowth

(Growingwithout

limits)


I II

IIIIV


DO IT SLOW

DO IT TOGETHER

DO IT

ALONE


ENERGY & INTERNET

CONVERGENCE

SOCIAL INTERNET

SURFING ALONE


I II

IIIIV

DO IT

TOGETHERDO IT ALONE

DO IT FAST

DO IT SLOW




GLOBAL CONSTITUTION

LEGAL BORDERS

LEGAL INTERNET

GOVERNANCEBREAKDOWN

I II

IIIIV

PUBLICPRIVATE

INTERNATIONAL

NATIONAL




DEMOGRAPHIC BOOM






DEMOGRAPHIC DECAY


I II

IIIIV

POSITIVENEGATIVE

HIGH


Net Immigration

LOW


…

FUTURE PATTERNS RECOGNITION

SustainableGrowth

(Growingwithinlimits)


(New Welfare)

UnhealthyGrowth

(Growingwithout

limits)


I II

IIIIV


DO IT SLOW

DO IT TOGETHER

DO IT

ALONE


ENERGY & INTERNET

CONVERGENCE

SOCIAL INTERNET

SURFING ALONE


I II

IIIIV

DO IT

TOGETHERDO IT ALONE

DO IT FAST

DO IT SLOW




GLOBAL CONSTITUTION

LEGAL BORDERS

LEGAL INTERNET

GOVERNANCEBREAKDOWN

I II

IIIIV

PUBLICPRIVATE

INTERNATIONAL

NATIONAL




DEMOGRAPHIC BOOM






DEMOGRAPHIC DECAY


I II

IIIIV

POSITIVENEGATIVE

HIGH


Net Immigration

LOW


…

FUTURE PATTERNS RECOGNITION

A

B

C

DELocal differencié

Archipel éclaté

Polycentrisme maillé

Centralisme renové

Regions

Flows/Markets/Technology (KS4)

Creative Cities/Government (KS2)

Talent Towns/Behaviour (KS1, KS5)

VISION ?

Links/Networks/CorporativismZones/Landscape/Cooperativism

Nodes/Territories/Institutions

Houston (Texas, USA)Antigua (Guatemala)

Singapur

Vevey (Nestlé HQ)?

et2050 new step towards scenarios

Documents

european territory

existing cities cities

strong connections

strong identities

compact cities

population growth

public investments

project specifications