CUENCA EL SAUCILLO1 INSTITUTO POLITCNICO NACIONAL UNI DADPROFESI ONALLI C. ADOLFOLPEZMATEOS ESCUELA SUPERIOR DE INGENIERA Y ARQUITECTURA UNI DADZACATENCO INGENIERA CIVIL TURNOMATUTI NO HIDROLOGIA PROYECTO.CUENCA EL SAUCILLO. GRUPO: 6CM03 I NTEGRANTES:-DI AZCI SNEROSEVANGELI NA -ORTEGAGARCI ASAMUEL PROF: J ORGEZAVALAAGUI LERA CUENCA EL SAUCILLO2 I NDI CE Pg.I NTRODUCCI ON. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 OBJ ETI VOGENERAL. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 OBJ ETI VOPARTI CULAR. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 GENERALI DADESDELAZONADEESTUDI O. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5- 9 -Local i zaci n -Cl i ma -Or ogr af a -Hi dr ogr af a -Aspect ossoci oeconmi cos CARACTERI STI CASFI SI CAS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10- 13 -Par t eaguas -r eadel acuenca -Caucepr i nci pal-Longi t uddel caucepr i nci pal LOCALI ZACI ONDEESTACI ONESPLUVI OMETRI CAS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14- 15 -Ubi caci ngener al del acuencaenl acar t ahi dr ol gi ca -Local i zaci ndeest aci onesdei nt er s. ANLI SI SDEPRECI PI TACI ONESMXI MASEN24HRS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 -Sel ecci ndeest aci ones -Regi st r osdepr eci pi t aci onesmxi masanual esen24hr s FUNCI ONESDEDI STRI BUCI NDEPROBABI LI DADES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 -Apl i caci ndel aFunci ndeDi st r i buci ndepr obabi l i dadesNor mal .-Apl i caci ndel aFunci ndeDi st r i buci ndepr obabi l i dadesLogNor mal-Apl i caci ndel aFunci ndeDi st r i buci ndepr obabi l i dadesPear son -Apl i caci ndel aFunci ndeDi st r i buci ndepr obabi l i dadesGumbel .-Apl i caci ndel aFunci ndeDi st r i buci ndepr obabi l i dadesDobl eGumbel .-Resumender esul t ados.PRUEBASDEBONDADDEAJ USTE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 -Apl i caci ndel apr uebadel M ni moEr r or Cuadr t i co.-Apl i caci ndel apr uebadel Er r or Est ndar .-Resumender esul t ados.-Sel ecci ndel amej or f unci n.PARMETROSPARALAAPLI CACI NDEMTODOSLLUVI AESCURRI MI ENTO. . . . . . . . . . 34 -Resumendecar act er st i casf si cas.-Coef i ci ent esdeescur r i mi ent osegnusosdesuel o.-Ti empodeconcent r aci n.-Dur aci ndel al l uvi adedi seo.-Ti empoder et r aso( t r ) .-Tabl ar esumendepar met r os -I nt ensi dadesyLl uvi asdedi seosegnecuaci onesdeKui chl i ng.RELACI ONESLLUVI AESCURRI MI ENTO. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 GASTOSDEDI SEO. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 -Mt odoRaci onal Amer i cano.-Hi dr ogr amaUni t ar i oTr i angul ar .-VenTeChow.-Anl i si sder esul t adosysel ecci ndeGast osdedi seo.CONCLUSI ONES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 BI BLI OGRAFI A. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 CUENCA EL SAUCILLO3 INTRODUCCION El agua, esunel ement ovi t al par asuper vi venci ahumanaynosol opor su consumodi r ect o, si noquel ai mpor t anci ar adi caenel abast eci mi ent opar a di f er ent esusost al escomo, pobl aci onal , agr col a, pecuar i o, mi ner oy ener gt i co, par al af l or ayf auna. Espor el l oquesedebedef i ni r una ubi caci n, cant i dad, cal i dadydi st r i buci ndeest el qui dovi t al . Enl acuencadel r i oEl sauci l l oel cual est si t uadoenel Muni ci pi ode Sauci l l o( enel Est adodeChi huahua) . Esnecesar i oef ect uar unpr oyect o,enel queconl l evaunest udi ohi dr ol gi co, par aanal i zar yeval uar medi ant e r egi st r oshi st r i cosel compor t ami ent oquet i eneel aguasobr edi chacuenca,as mi smoconl aayudadel ai nf or maci ndeI NEGI ( car t at opogr f i ca) se del i mi t ar al acuencaysel ocal i zar al af uent epr i nci pal deagua super f i ci al , l asest aci onespl uvi omt r i casenl ascual esseencuent r aun r egi st r ohi st r i codedat osr espect oal aspr eci pi t aci ones. Medi ant eel Est udi oHi dr ol gi copodemosconocer yval uar sus car act er st i casf si casygeomor f ol gi casdel acuencaconl ascual esnos apoyar emospar ar eal i zar cl cul osyas saber el i mpact oquepuedet enerunapr eci pi t aci nennuest r azonadeest udi o. Deest amaner al osr esul t adosobt eni dospodr nser manej adospar adi seo deobr ashi dr ul i casosi mpl ement ecomoest ad st i cadepr evenci nf ut ur a.Yl asor gani zaci onescor r espondi ent espodr nanal i zar l osr esul t adosy opt ar por el apr ovechami ent odel acuencaoel buenmanej odel ami sma. FOTO 1. IMAGEN TOMADA DE EL SAUCILLO (Google imgenes, 2006) CUENCA EL SAUCILLO4 OBJETIVO GENERAL. Est i mar aveni damxi mapar aper i odosder et or nodesde2hast a10, 000aos,af i ndeusar l osr esul t adospar ael di seodedi st i nt asobr as. OBJETIVO PARTICULAR. Obt ener l ascar act er st i casf si casdel acuenca, def i ni r l al ocal i zaci n deest aci oneshi dr omt r i casy/ ocl i mat ol gi cas. CUENCA EL SAUCILLO5 -GENERALIDADES DE LA ZONA. Localizacin. Lazonadeest udi osel ocal i zaenEl car r i ci l l oenel muni ci pi ode At ar j ea, Gt o( Fi gur a1) . Lacuencahaest udi ar sel l amaEl sauci l l ol a cual t i eneunpunt odei ni ci oyunpunt odesal i da( Tabl a1) . FIGURA 1. FUENTE. INEGI. CARTA TOPOGRAFICA 1:50 000 EL CARRICILLO. Ubicacin el saucillo. Coor denadas I ni ci oSalida Longi t udLatitudLongitud Latitud 1000 6. 98O 212326.71 N995612.96 O212619.56 N TABLA 1. COORDENADAS INICIO-SALIDA EL SAUCILLO Foto satelital con coordenadas (ubicacin) FUENTE. GOOGLE EARTH. 2013 Foto satelital en 3D (ubicacin) FUENTE. GOOGLE EARTH. 2013 N CUENCA EL SAUCILLO6 Clima. El l ugar pr esent adoscl i masdeacuer doasucondi ci ngeogr f i ca,Semi cl i dosubhmedoconl l uvi asenver anoyenl apar t edeEl Sauci l l o sepr esent ael Semi cl i dosubhmedoconl l uvi asenver ano. El pr omedi ode pr eci pi t aci npl uvi al anual esde500mi l met r os. Lat emper at ur amxi ma r egi st r adahasi dode40Cyl am ni made0. 2C, si endol at emper at ur a pr omedi oanual de15. 3C. ( Fi g. 2) FIGURA 2. CLIMAS EN GUANAJUATO. FUENTE. INIFAP. Orografa. Lat ot al i daddel t er r i t or i oest enl asi er r aGor da( Fi g. 3) : l asal t ur as msnot abl essonl oscer r os: El Bl anco, El Car r i ci l l o, Laguni l l a, Tecol ot e,Gr eudo, El Agui l a, Di vi sader o, Mesadel aTor r eyEl Pi no. Laal t ur a pr omedi oesde2mi l 500met r ossobr eel ni vel del mar . FIGURA 3. OROGRAFIA EN GUANAJUATO. FUENTE. INEGI CUENCA EL SAUCILLO7 Hidrografa. Enl aubi caci ndel azonadeest udi osel ocal i zanal gunosar r oyosque cr uzanel t er r i t or i oson: ar r oyoMaj ada, el deChar cas, LaJ oya, El Dur azno,LaBander a, Gui t ar r a, yAt ar j ea. ( Fi g. 4) FIGURA 4. HIDROGRAFIA EN GUANAJUATO. FUENTE. INEGI. Aspectos socioeconmicos. Poblacin. At ar j eat i eneunapobl aci nde5. 035habi t ant essegndat osdel I NEGI( I nst i t ut oNaci onal deEst ad st i cayGeogr af a) . Del os5. 035habi t ant es deAt ar j ea, 2. 610sonmuj er esy2. 425sonhombr es. Por l ot ant o, el 48, 16 por ci ent odel apobl aci nsonhombr esyel 51, 84muj er es. Si compar amosl osdat osdeAt ar j eaconl osdel est adodeGuanaj uat o concl ui mosqueocupael puest o45del os46muni ci pi osquehayenel est ado yr epr esent aun0, 1029%del apobl aci nt ot al dest e. Ani vel naci onal ,At ar j eaocupael puest o1. 720del os2. 454muni ci pi osquehayenMxi coy r epr esent aun0, 0049%del apobl aci nt ot al del pa s. Vivienda. Car enci adecal i dadyespaci osdel avi vi enda2010( Absol ut os)Naci onal Est at al Muni ci palGr upo 1080[ 4]Vi vi endaspar t i cul ar eshabi t adas[ 1] 28, 138, 5561, 266, 2351, 3783, 529, 217 Vi vi endasconpi sodet i er r a[ 1] 1, 731, 41452, 540115691, 790 Vi vi endascont echosendebl es[ 2] 7, 039, 0116, 50721228, 693 Vi vi endasconmur osendebl es[ 2] 1, 907, 67010, 306135819, 000 Vi vi endasconal gnni vel dehaci nami ent o[ 3] 10, 231, 622458, 2286091, 919, 002 Fuent e: [ 1] I NEGI . CensodePobl aci nyVi vi enda2010.[ 2] I NEGI . CensodePobl aci nyVi vi enda. Mi cr odat osdel amuest r aCensal 2010. CUENCA EL SAUCILLO8 Economa. Distribucin de la Poblacin Ocupada segn sector de actividad, 2010 Pr i mar i o11Agr i cul t ur a, ganader a, apr ovechami ent of or est al , pescaycaza717 Secundar i o 21Mi ner a6 22El ect r i ci dad, aguaysumi ni st r odegaspor duct osal consumi dor f i nal23Const r ucci n237 31I ndust r i asmanuf act ur er as54 Ter ci ar i o 43Comer ci oal por mayor 21 46Comer ci oal por menor 111 48Tr anspor t es, cor r eosyal macenami ent os15 51I nf or maci nenmedi osmasi vos 52Ser vi ci osf i nanci er osydesegur os 53Ser vi ci osi nmobi l i ar i osydeal qui l er debi enesmuebl esei nt angi bl es 54Ser vi ci ospr of esi onal es, ci ent i f i cosyt cni cos3 55Di r ecci ndecor por at i vosyempr esas 56Ser vi ci osdeapoyoal osnegoci osymanej odedesechosyser vi cosder emedi aci n15 61Ser vi ci oseducat i vos126 62Ser vi ci osdesal udydeasi st enci a54 71Ser vi ci osdeespar ci mi ent ocul t ur al esydepor t i vos, yot r osser vi ci osr ecr eat i vos6 72Ser vi ci osdeal oj ami ent ot empor al ydepr epar aci ndeal i ment osybebi das42 81Ot r osser vi ci osexcept oaact i vi dadesdegobi er no57 93Act i vi dadesdel Gobi er noydeor gani smosi nt er naci onal esyt er r i t or i al es135 No especi f i cado 99Noespeci f i cado9 Fuent e: I NEGI . CensodePobl aci nyVi vi enda2010. Mi cr odat osdel amuest r a. Salud. Distribucin porcentual de casos registrados por principales causas de defuncin [4], segn grupo de edad, en el grupo de los 1080 municipios Gr uposdeedad No. de casos [ 5]N/ E0a910a1920a6465yms Tot al( %)Causasext er nasdemor t al i dad[ 6] 9, 7191. 204. 8911. 9966. 6815. 24100 Di abet es8, 6700. 070. 020. 2040. 2059. 52100 Enf er medadesdel si st emageni t our i nar i o [ 7]2, 3170. 091. 732. 9330. 9064. 35100 Enf er medadeshi per t ensi vas2, 7350. 040. 110. 2215. 2584. 39100 Enf er medadesi nf ecci osasypar asi t ar i as2, 7050. 1119. 784. 6242. 9232. 57100 Tumor es8, 6200. 142. 202. 8940. 2154. 56100 Fuent e: Secr et ar adeSal ud. Basededat ossobr edef unci ones2010. CUENCA EL SAUCILLO9 Carta edafolgica. Sel ocal i zl acuencaenl acar t aedaf ol gi caconl af i nal i daddeconocerenqut i podesuel oseencuent r a, par apoder saber si exi st eal gn f act or quepuedai nt er veni r ennuest r oest udi ohi dr ol gi co. ( Fi g. 5) FIGURA 5. CARTA EDAFOLOGICA. FUENTE. INEGI. Carta uso de suelo. Lacar t adeusodesuel osenecesi t par aconocer l aveget aci nonat ur al eza queseencuent r aennuest r acuencayser el aci oneconnuest r oest udi o.FIGURA 6. CARTA USO DE SUELO. FUENTE. INEGI N N CUENCA EL SAUCILLO10 CARACTERISTICAS FISICAS. Parteaguas. Ser eal i zent r azodel par t eaguast omandocomor ef er enci al ascur vasdeni vel par a asi poder i r obt eni endosuf or maysaber por dondepasaba, t eni endosumapr ecauci n denocor t ar ni ngnsi st emadedr enaj e( Fi g7) . Fi nal ment e, unavest r azadonuest r o par t eaguas, esposi bl ecal cul ar el per met r o, dandoconcomodat o: Permetro de la cuenca= 22,719.82 m. FIGURA 7. CARTA TOPOGRAFICA. TRAZO DE PARTEAGUAS. FUENTE. INEGI. Cl asi f i caci ondeacuenca Por su tamao GeogrficoMedi ana Por su EcosistemaHumedo Por su ObjetivoAguadeRi egoyPobl aci onalPor su ReliveDeAl t aMont aa Por su Salida TABLA 2. CLASIFICACION DE LA CUENCA EL SAUCILLO N PARTEAGUAS CUENCA EL SAUCILLO11 rea de la cuenca. Post er i or ment eser eal i zel cl cul oder eaconel apoyodeunsof t war e. rea de la cuenca= 22,189,634.5715 m2. Cauce principal. SeTr azel caucepr i nci pal unavezt r azadoel par t eaguas, sei dent i f i c comol ar edmsl ar gaqueexi st aennuest r acuencayasi sedet er mi nsu l ongi t ud. ( Fi g. 8) Longitud del cauce principal: 115588.43 m. FIGURA 8. CARTA TOPOGRAFICA. CAUCE PRINCIPAL EL SAUCILLO. FUENTE. INEGI. N N AREA CAUCE PRINCIPAL CUENCA EL SAUCILLO12 Pendiente media del cauce principal. Par ael cl cul odel apendi ent emedi aseusal aecuaci ndel mt odode Tayl or Schwar z( ecuaci n1) . Yas f uecomoser eal i zel cl cul odebi do aquel asdi st anci assondi f er ent es.For mul a.Smcp=_L|1x1+ |2x2++ |nxn_ ECUACION 1. Smcp= pendi ent emedi adel caucepr i nci pal .L= l ongi t uddel caucepr i nci pal .Li =l ongi t uddel t r amoent r eunacur vayot r a.Si =pendi ent edet r amoent r eunacur vayot r a. Smcp=.587 Consultar tabla 3. CUENCA EL SAUCILLO13 TABLA 3. CALCULO DE PENDIENTE MEDIA DEL CAUCE PRINCIPAL. Cal cul odependi ent es TramoLongi t ud det r amo Di st anci aent r e cur va Pendi ent e S Longi t ud ent r e pendi ent e 760-780216. 8130. 0599631885. 3545849 780-800349. 17200. 057278691458. 949927 800-820469. 25200. 04262122272. 958069 820-840203. 37200. 09834292648. 5079958 840-860359. 19200. 055680841522. 19874 860-880226. 18200. 08842515760. 6174798 880-900574. 13200. 034835323076. 099387 900-920510. 49200. 039178042579. 086219 920-940310. 49200. 064414311223. 366062 940-960814. 77200. 02454685200. 409547 960-980400. 95200. 049881531795. 230958 980-1000388. 03200. 051542411709. 160935 1000-1020409. 5200. 048840051852. 959219 1020-1040314. 56200. 063580871247. 499116 1040-1060247. 41200. 08083748870. 183564 1060-1080153. 09200. 13064211423. 550537 1080-1100346. 94200. 057646861444. 995729 1100-1120265. 89200. 07521908969. 4781115 1120-1140294. 95200. 06780811132. 680967 1140-1160235. 39200. 08496538807. 5455263 1160-1180272. 58200. 073372951006. 296548 1180-1200367. 84200. 054371471577. 514766 1200-1220225. 53200. 08868757. 3410231 1220-1240363. 86200. 05496621551. 981267 1240-1260196. 43200. 10181744615. 5973295 1260-128093. 64200. 21358394202. 6175733 1280-1300248. 46200. 08049585875. 7289834 1300-1320116. 08200. 17229497279. 6540423 1320-1340241200. 08298755836. 585949 1340-1360190. 38200. 10505305587. 3770664 1360-1380245. 67200. 08141002861. 0199037 1380-1400417. 94200. 047853761910. 53901 1400-1420141. 97200. 14087483378. 2508178 1420-1440343. 62200. 058203831424. 303864 1440-1460249. 18200. 08026326879. 5383377 1460-1480106. 14200. 18843037244. 5139419 1480-1500134. 5200. 14869888348. 7935367 1500-152067. 84200. 29481132124. 9435269 1520-154098. 87200. 20228583219. 8273899 1540-1560281. 31200. 071095941055. 025018 1560-158087. 39200. 22885914182. 674367 1580-16007. 653. 250. 424836611. 73682076 11588. 43 Longitud de cauce principal=115588.43 =47812.69376 Smcp=.587 CUENCA EL SAUCILLO14 LOCALIZACION DE ESTACIONES PLUVIOMETRICAS. Ubicacin general de la cuenca en la carta hidrolgica. Ser eal i zent r azodel acuencaenl acar t ahi dr ogr f i capar aasi segui rconel anl i si sdel osel ement osconl osquecont ar emospar al l egar alcl cul odel gast o. Fi g. 9) FIGURA 9. CARTA HIDROGRAFICA. CUENCA EL SAUCILLO. FUENTE. INEGI. N CUENCA EL SAUCILLO15 Localizacin de estaciones de inters. Sel ocal i zar onl asest aci onescl i mat ol gi cascer canasal acuenca, ( t abl a 4) conel f i ndeobt ener l osr egi st r osdepr eci pi t aci npar aasi podercal cul ar el gast oquesepr oduceennuest r azonadeest udi o. ( Fi g. 10) FIGURA 10. CARTA HIDROLOGICA. CUENCA EL SAUCILLO. ESTACIONES CLIMATOLOGICAS. FUENTE. INEGI. Nmero de estacin NombreClave cartaCoordenadasAos de registro (n)Lat i t ud ( N)Longi t ud ( E)15Vi gas24- 1182145 24. 19930 4415aos 39Ayut l a22- 0282115 23. 659930 44. 1010a0s 34Laguni l l as24- 0132130 22. 89930 4432aos 51J al pan22- 0132100 23. 489915 4533aos 52J al pan22- 0332100 23. 489915 4510aos 53Ahuacat l an22- 0012100 23. 419930 45. 521aos TABLA 4. ESTACIONES CLIMATOLOGICAS EL SAUCILLO. N CUENCA EL SAUCILLO16 ANALISIS PROBABILISTICO DE PRECIPITACIONES. Seleccin de estaciones. Par al asel ecci ndel asest aci oneshi dr ol gi cassedebet ener unr egi st r o m ni mode20aos, por l oqueacont i nuaci nsemuest r anl asest aci ones sel ecci onadaspar at r abaj ar . Nmero de estacin NombreClave cartaCoordenadasAos de registro (n)Lat i t ud ( N)Longi t ud ( E)15Vi gas24- 1182145 24. 19930 4415aos 39Ayut l a22- 0282115 23. 659930 44. 1010a0s 34Laguni l l as24- 0132130 22. 89930 4432aos 51J al pan22- 0132100 23. 489915 4533aos 52J al pan22- 0332100 23. 489915 4510aos 53Ahuacat l an22- 0012100 23. 419930 45. 521aos Anlisis de precipitacin mxima en 24 horas. Acont i nuaci nsemuest r anl osr egi st r osqueset i enendel as pr eci pi t aci onesmxi masanual esen24hor asdel asdosest aci ones( Tabl a 5, 6) . NOTA: LA ESTACION NUMERO 53 AHUACATLAN SE ENCUENTRA SUSPENDIDA Y POR LO TANTONOEXISTEREGISTRODEELLA.PORCONSIGUIENTESOLOSETOMARON:LA ESTACION 34 Y LA ESTACION 51. CUENCA EL SAUCILLO17 Est aci nN34Laguni l l as. TABLA 5. REGISTR DE PRECIPITACION MAXIMA ANUAL EN 24 HORAS. Dadoqueenl osaos1987y1988sepr esent aunapr eci pi t aci nmxi maanualmuybaj aconr espect oal osdemsypr esent amuypocosdat osenmesesde r egi st r o, noset omar aencuent apar anuest r oscl cul ossi gui ent es. AO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC ACUMULADO MEDIA MAXIMA MESES24035LAGUNILLAS, LAGUNILLASLLUVIA MAX 24H.1954 2.5 2 0 8 19 9 35 40 60 83.5 1 1.5 261.5 21.8 83.5 121955 6.5 1.5 3.5 1 32 36 36 26 232 64.5 9.5 6 454.5 37.9 232 121956 9 0 0 18 39 18 83 20 48 10 15.5 7.5 268 22.3 83 121957 2 0 0.5 2 11 8 48.5 31.5 36.5 25 8 173 15.7 48.5 111958 14 9 1.5 0 23.5 70 90 15.5 33 88 32 11 387.5 32.3 90 121959 2.5 7 14 16.5 50 40 21 14.5 21 45 6 12 249.5 20.8 45 121960 3 0 0 27 2 54 42 25.5 13 67 25 1 259.5 21.6 67 121961 6 13 0 3.5 7.5 52.5 9.5 20 41.5 7 17.5 1.5 179.5 15 52.5 121962 0 0 0 29 4 28.5 19 4.5 101 19 13.5 14.5 233 19.4 101 121963 0.5 1.5 1.5 10.5 7 40 18 40 87 29 5 13.5 253.5 21.1 87 121964 1 31 15.5 13.5 7 26 10 29 28.5 37 9.5 208 18.9 37 111965 9.5 6 8 4.5 10 28.5 14 20.5 63.5 25 4.5 8.5 202.5 16.9 63.5 121966 4.5 34 6 7 26.5 110 13 18 37 42 6.5 0 304.5 25.4 110 121967 20 4 12 7 6.5 35.5 40 86 80 28 53.5 0 372.5 31 86 121968 6 21.5 15 21 9 16 28 22.5 40 24 1.5 28 232.5 19.4 40 121969 11 1.5 11 24.5 4.5 20 45 26 20.6 2 166.1 16.6 45 101970 0 6 0.5 0 9.5 51.5 66 55 75 8 1 1.5 274 22.8 75 121971 7.5 0 1.5 1.5 14.5 27.5 16 30 21 30 14 10 173.5 14.5 30 121972 5 11 8 0 20 30 69.5 27.5 14 20.5 6.5 2 214 17.8 69.5 121973 0 5 1.5 10.5 6.5 60 48 48 32 21 8 20 260.5 21.7 60 121974 5 2.5 50 60 8.5 62 12 5 108 24.5 18.5 16 372 31 108 121975 28 0 0 2 23 50 70 23 20 0 5 221 20.1 70 111976 4 3 4.5 13.5 51 48.5 40.5 42.5 34 32.5 20 3 297 24.8 51 121977 1 6.5 0 4.5 20 40.5 12.5 18.5 75.5 45.5 5 229.5 20.9 75.5 111978 2.5 14 0 65 98.5 76 17.5 118 25.5 18.5 0 435.5 39.6 118 111979 1 2.5 2.5 6.5 2.5 24.5 4.5 40.5 75.5 0 4.5 35 199.5 16.6 75.5 121980 19.5 4.5 1 27 20 16.5 15 28 82 10.5 2.5 12 238.5 19.9 82 121981 17.5 3.5 3 31 27 106 51.5 52 41.5 7.5 0 35 375.5 31.3 106 121982 0 9 1.5 2.5 7 51 2 8 37.5 38 11.5 14 182 15.2 51 121983 15.5 1 2 0 19.5 1.5 26.5 16.5 44.5 20.5 6.5 0 154 12.8 44.5 121984 11.5 19.5 0 0 39.5 19.5 46.5 28.5 49.5 18.5 3.5 4 240.5 20 49.5 121985 4 3 2 37.5 25 20 91.5 15.3 37.5 61987 16 20 16 9 11 8 0 80 11.4 20 71988 2 0 21.5 23.5 7.8 21.5 31992 10 21.5 52 26.5 28.4 20 36 27.7 8.5 230.6 25.6 52 91993 4.5 9 0 0.2 11.5 60.5 18.5 48 210 50.8 12 0 425 35.4 210 121994 50 2.8 0 21.7 22.4 35.5 0 41 26 35 12.5 0 246.9 20.6 50 121995 0 0 0 0 26.8 27.5 25 81 39 31.3 8.4 9.5 248.5 20.7 81 121996 0 0 11 0 11.5 16 0 91 8.3 0 137.8 13.8 91 101997 0 4.2 18.5 36.5 0 13.3 16 0 12.5 112.5 9.8 3 226.3 18.9 112.5 121998 0 5.5 0 0 0 31.5 24.3 33.3 113 40 4 0 251.6 21 113 121999 0 0 0 0 0 59.7 64.3 31.3 92.8 9 6 2.2 265.3 22.1 92.8 122000 0 0 11.2 0 0 30 1.5 24.5 92.8 38 3.7 4 205.7 17.1 92.8 122001 3 6 5.8 3.8 4.5 3 26 24 117 23 5.5 0 221.6 18.5 117 122002 9.5 6 0 9 6.8 28 57 25.5 44 20 13.5 219.3 19.9 57 112003 4.5 1.5 0 25.8 0 14.3 26.5 29.2 48.3 20 5 6.5 181.6 15.1 48.3 122004 2 0 27 0 20 30.5 19.3 20 26 27.5 0 6.5 178.8 14.9 30.5 122005 5.3 6 7 3 9.5 30.5 38 10 29.5 57.7 4 200.5 18.2 57.7 11COMISIN NACIONALDELAGUASUBDIRECCIN GENERALTCNICAUNIDAD DEL SERVICIO METEOROLGICO NACIONALPROYECTO DEBASESDEDATOS CLIMATOLGICOS CUENCA EL SAUCILLO18 Est aci nN51J al pan.TABLA 6. REGISTR DE PRECIPITACION MAXIMA ANUAL EN 24 HORAS. Set omar anl osaosdel oscual essecuent aconr egi st r oyaquepor l o queseobser vaenal gunosaossi hayi nf or maci nydeal gunosno. AO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC ACUMULADO MEDIAHpMAXIMA mm MESES22008JALPAN (SMN), JALPAN DELLUVIA MAX 24H.1942 8 0.5 4 0 25 33.5 32.5 44.5 35 12 9 12 216 18 44.5 121943 4 0.5 0 41 22 35.5 14 21.5 56.5 16 12 20.5 243.5 20.3 56.5 121944 7 2 8.5 18 50.5 37 58.5 69 26 7 283.5 28.4 69 101945 3 3 0 0 55 32.5 12.5 30 23 41 9 5.5 214.5 17.9 55 121946 3 32 1.5 10 37.5 37.5 11 17 34 24 40.5 8 256 21.3 40.5 121947 4.5 3.5 0 14 20 24 15 108 27.5 22 22 12.5 273 22.8 108 121948 8 26 0.5 4.5 37.5 19 60.5 17 55.5 15.5 1 3.5 248.5 20.7 60.5 121949 2 5.5 1 2.5 5.5 38.5 54.5 21.5 27.5 7.5 0 4.5 170.5 14.2 54.5 121950 0 5 9.5 38 31 37 38.5 19 15 18 6 0 217 18.1 38.5 121951 0 0 13 3 37.5 42.5 38.5 62 27.5 30.5 1 6 261.5 21.8 62 121952 2 3 0.5 37.5 42 45.5 16 40.5 92.5 14.5 15.4 0.5 309.9 25.8 92.5 121953 0 2 0.5 0 12 9 65.5 27.5 33.5 63.5 25 0.5 239 19.9 65.5 121954 3.5 19.5 0 9.5 19 12.5 27 26 45 65 3 0.5 230.5 19.2 65 121955 8 1.5 0.4 0 3 23.5 112 50 187 50.5 21 7 463.9 38.7 187 121956 4.5 0 0.5 3 36 26 58.5 58 69.5 28 12 2 298 24.8 69.5 121957 0.5 3.5 1.5 4 18.5 16 47.5 40.5 49.5 23 7 8.5 220 18.3 49.5 121958 16.5 2 1.5 34.5 1 49.5 34.5 21 38.5 55.5 31.5 2.3 288.3 24 55.5 121959 1.5 8.5 44.5 13.5 46.5 55 50 17 23 46 7 2.5 315 26.3 55 121960 3 0 2 14.5 17.5 21 40 30 34.5 34.5 5.7 7.5 210.2 17.5 40 121961 4.5 11.2 13 0 60.5 86 27 60.5 32.5 7 3.5 0 305.7 25.5 86 121985 0 2 0 17.5 7 70 49.4 17.7 42.5 9.6 11 0.7 227.4 19 70 121986 3.7 0 0 40 28 62 21.3 33.7 24.6 26 33.8 2.7 275.8 23 62 121987 0 0 1.8 7 22.5 86.7 14 8 6.7 25 0 171.7 15.6 86.7 111988 0 3.5 82 28.6 40 40 60 69 94 6.3 8 431.4 39.2 94 111990 0 0 4.6 20 23 40 40 56 7.5 3.5 194.6 19.5 56 101991 0 3.7 1 26 14 44.7 8.9 26 51992 4.2 8 26.7 17 14.8 30 2 3.7 106.4 13.3 30 81993 5 6.4 107 38 40 158 0 21 375.4 46.9 158 81994 2.5 0 0 14 50 20 8 15 0 109.5 12.2 50 91995 0 0 0 20 116 40 40 0 29 0 245 24.5 116 101996 0 0 0 40 32.8 69.8 60 25 4.8 4 236.4 23.6 69.8 101997 12.5 3.8 18.5 21.5 27 12 48.7 28.8 0 172.8 19.2 48.7 91998 0 0 0 0 0 11 34 43.5 45 16.5 3 153 13.9 45 111999 0 0 19.5 52.5 37 3 0 112 16 52.5 72000 6 12 1.5 46 14 68 19 23 50 39 7 285.5 26 68 11COMISIN NACIONALDEL AGUASUBDIRECCIN GENERALTCNICAUNIDADDELSERVICIOMETEOROLGICO NACIONALPROYECTO DEBASESDEDATOSCLIMATOLGICOS CUENCA EL SAUCILLO19 Registros de precipitaciones mximas anuales en 24 horas. Unavezr eal i zadoel anl i si sdel asest aci onesydespusdehaberdet er mi nadol osval or esqueseut i l i zar anenl oscl cul os, sepr esent an l osdat oscor r espondi ent esal osaosyl aspr eci pi t aci onesmxi masen24 hor asquesemuest r asacont i nuaci n. Est aci nN34Laguni l l asEst aci nN51J al pan. AO1954195519561957195819591960196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005hp MAXIMA mm83.52328348.590456752.5101873763.5110864045753069.560108705175.511875.5821065144.549.537.552210508191112.511392.892.81175748.330.557.7AO19421943194419451946194719481949195019511952195319541955195619571958195919601961198519861987198819901991199219931994199519961997199819992000Hp MAXIMA mm44.556.5695540.510860.554.538.56292.565.56518769.549.555.5554086706286.7945626301585011669.848.74552.568 CUENCA EL SAUCILLO20 Funciones de distribucin de probabilidades. Par al apl aneaci nyel di seodepr oyect osr el aci onadosconel aguase necesi t ai nf or maci ndedi f er ent esevent oshi dr ol gi cosquenoson gober nadospor l eyesf si casyqu mi casconoci das, si nopor l asl eyesde azar . Unej empl odeest oesel cl cul odel aaveni dadedi seopar aelver t edor deunapr esa.Espor esoqueseapl i car on5f unci onesdedi st r i buci ndepr obabi l i dades conl af i nal i daddeescoger l aquemej or seadapt eanuest r osdat os. Estacin N 34 Lagunillas.-FUNCION DE DISTRIBUCION NORMAL. Pr i mer ament esenecesi t asacar l amedi ayl adesvi aci nest ndar de nuest r apr eci pi t aci nmxi maconl assi gui ent esf or mul as. Unavezobt eni dosest osdat ossepuedencal cul ar l aspr eci pi t aci onespar a l ossi gui ent esper i odosder et or no.TrP(x)F(x)FDN 20. 50. 575. 44mm50. 20. 8109. 63mm100. 10. 9127. 50mm200. 050. 95142. 26mm500. 020. 98158. 87mm1000. 010. 99169. 94mm5000. 0020. 998192. 36mm10000. 0010. 999200. 97mm20000. 00050. 9995209. 11mm50000. 00020. 9998219. 24mm100001E- 040. 9999226. 51mm =75. 440 o=40. 622 Medi a. X= X ni=1n Desvi aci nEst ndar . S=_ (X-X)ni=12n-1 P(x) =1Ir CUENCA EL SAUCILLO21 -FUNCION DE DISTRIBUCION LOG NORMAL. For mul as. TrP(x)F(x)FDLN 20. 50. 580. 12mm50. 20. 8126. 18mm100. 10. 9159. 99mm200. 050. 95194. 65mm500. 020. 98242. 71mm1000. 010. 99281. 17mm5000. 0020. 998378. 71mm10000. 0010. 999424. 62mm20000. 00050. 9995473. 09mm50000. 00020. 9998541. 30mm100001E- 040. 9999596. 17mm -FUNCION DE DISTRIBUCION PEARSON. For mul as.

y=CHI/2 v= 2 o=4. 3835481 |=0. 5396539 TrP(x)F(x)x2yFDP 20. 50. 50. 4550. 2353. 68mm50. 20. 81. 6420. 8283. 28mm100. 10. 92. 7061. 35109. 79mm200. 050. 953. 8411. 92138. 10mm500. 020. 985. 4122. 71177. 25mm1000. 010. 996. 6353. 32207. 74mm5000. 0020. 9989. 5504. 77280. 40mm10000. 0010. 99910. 8285. 41312. 26mm20000. 00050. 999512. 1166. 06344. 37mm50000. 00020. 999813. 8316. 92387. 13mm100001E- 040. 999915. 1377. 57419. 68mm=75. 440 o=40. 622 o=49. 856775 |=0. 6638474 o=42. 342293 u=1. 3276948 o=Ln(X) ni=1n

|=[ Ln(X)- ni=1xn ]2 P(x) =1Ir S= (Xi X)n=12/n-1 X= Xi / nn=1 y = [(Xi X)n=13/n] / S3 [ =j2y[2 o = S[ o =(X (o [)) P(x) =1Ir CUENCA EL SAUCILLO22 -FUNCION DE DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL. For mul as. x = [ 1u lnln [11 -1 Seut i l i zl asi gui ent et abl aencompa adel asf or mul asant er i or es. Seobt uvol asi gui ent ei nf or maci ndeacuer doal os46aosder egi st r oq set i enendel aest aci n, set uvoqi nt er pol ar par aencont r ar el val or ms pr eci so.

0.0284018 56. 187987 TrFDG 269. 09mm5109. 00mm10135. 42mm20160. 77mm50193. 57mm100218. 15mm500274. 96mm1000299. 39mm2000323. 80mm5000356. 07mm10000380. 47mmo = oS[ =x p/ o X= X ni=1n p=0.54678 o=1.15373 CUENCA EL SAUCILLO23 -FUNCION DE DISTRIBUCION DOBLE GUMBEL. For mul as. F(x) =e-c-o1(x-1)jp+(1 p)e-c-o2(x-2)[ S=_ (X-X)ni=12n-1 p =NnNT Medi aydesvi aci nest ndar dedat osno ci cl ni cosyci cl ni cos.Noci cl ni cos. Ci cl ni cos.x1=66.9113636x2=169.25 s1=25. 6085761s2= 60. 43 0.0447413 54. 712333 0. 0121048 132. 42149 P 0. 9130435 o = oS[ =x p/ o X= X ni=1n Tr F(x) FD2G F(x)2 0.5 65.70 mm -0.49 -0.6116457 0.5424574 0.81 -2.242625129 0.1061794 0.922 0.50029575 0.8 98.00 mm -1.94 -0.1441725 0.8657384 0.42 -1.516892159 0.21939267 0.932 0.8069730310 0.9 125.00 mm -3.14 -0.0430773 0.95783734 0.09 -1.093994082 0.3348763 0.942 0.90243904820 0.95 165.00 mm -4.93 -0.0071947 0.99283111 -0.39 -0.674114836 0.50960731 0.957 0.9504939750 0.98 245.00 mm -8.51 -0.0002007 0.99979932 -1.36 -0.25595977 0.77417311 0.98 0.980166142100 0.99 280.00 mm -10.08 -4.192E-05 0.99995808 -1.79 -0.167562087 0.84572411 0.987 0.986543344500 0.998 307.00 mm -11.29 -1.253E-05 0.99998747 -2.11 -0.120847042 0.8861695 0.99 0.9900892931000 0.999 501.00 mm -19.97 -2.129E-09 1 -4.46 -0.011544437 0.98852194 0.999 0.9990019062000 0.9995 559.00 mm -22.56 -1.589E-10 1 -5.16 -0.005720911 0.99429542 1 0.999503955000 0.9998 635.00 mm -25.96 -5.303E-12 1 -6.08 -0.00227998 0.99772262 1 0.99980196710000 0.9999 700.00 mm -28.87 -2.894E-13 1 -6.87 -0.001038065 0.99896247 1 0.99990978e^(-e^(-1 (x-1 ) ) ) e^(-e^(-2 (x-2 ) ) )Doble GumbelmHp MAXIMA mmDoble gumbel1 2322 2103 1184 1175 1136 112.57 1108 1089 10610 10111 92.812 92.813 9114 9015 8716 8617 83.518 8319 8220 8121 75.522 75.523 7524 7025 69.526 6727 63.528 6029 57.730 5731 52.532 5233 5134 5135 5036 49.537 48.538 48.339 4540 4541 44.542 4043 37.544 3745 30.546 30ciclonicono ciclonico CUENCA EL SAUCILLO24 Estacin N 51 Jalpan.-FUNCION DE DISTRIBUCION NORMAL. Pr i mer ament esenecesi t asacar l amedi ayl adesvi aci nest ndar de nuest r apr eci pi t aci nmxi maconl assi gui ent esf or mul as. Unavezobt eni dosest osdat ossepuedencal cul ar l aspr eci pi t aci onespar a l ossi gui ent esper i odosder et or no. TrP(x)F(x)FDN 20. 50. 565. 06mm50. 20. 894. 36mm100. 10. 9109. 68mm200. 050. 95122. 32mm500. 020. 98136. 56mm1000. 010. 99146. 05mm5000. 0020. 998165. 26mm10000. 0010. 999172. 64mm20000. 00050. 9995179. 61mm50000. 00020. 9998188. 30mm100001E- 040. 9999194. 53mm -FUNCION DE DISTRIBUCION LOG NORMAL. For mul as. =65. 062 o=34. 812 TrP(x)F(x)FDLN 20. 50. 570. 85mm50. 20. 8122. 86mm100. 10. 9163. 83mm200. 050. 95207. 78mm500. 020. 98271. 49mm1000. 010. 99324. 49mm5000. 0020. 998465. 54mm10000. 0010. 999534. 81mm20000. 00050. 9995609. 68mm50000. 00020. 9998717. 79mm100001E- 040. 9999806. 92mmo=4. 2605175 |=0. 654126 Medi a. X= X ni=1n Desvi aci nEst ndar . S=_ (X-X)ni=12n-1 o=Ln(X) ni=1n

|=[ Ln(X)- ni=1xn ]2 P(x) =1Ir P(x) =1Ir CUENCA EL SAUCILLO25 -FUNCION DE DISTRIBUCION PEARSON. For mul as.

y=CHI/2 v= 2 TrP(x)F(x)x2yFDP 20. 50. 50. 454940. 2274744. 15mm50. 20. 81. 642370. 8211968. 07mm100. 10. 92. 705541. 3527789. 48mm200. 050. 953. 841461. 92073112. 36mm500. 020. 985. 411892. 70595144. 00mm1000. 010. 996. 63493. 31745168. 64mm5000. 0020. 9989. 549544. 77477227. 35mm10000. 0010. 99910. 82765. 41378253. 09mm20000. 00050. 999512. 11576. 05783279. 04mm50000. 00020. 999813. 83116. 91554313. 60mm100001E- 040. 999915. 13677. 56835339. 90mm=65. 062 o=34. 812 o=40. 288395 |=0. 7466374 o=34. 981342 u=1. 4932747 S= (Xi X)n=12/n-1 X= Xi / nn=1 y = [(Xi X)n=13/n] / S3 [ =j2y[2 o = S[ o =(X (o [)) P(x) =1Ir CUENCA EL SAUCILLO26 -FUNCION DE DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL. For mul as. x = [ 1o lnln _II1_ Seut i l i zl asi gui ent et abl aencompa adel asf or mul asant er i or es. Seobt uvol asi gui ent ei nf or maci ndeacuer doal os46aosder egi st r oq set i enendel aest aci n, set uvoqi nt er pol ar par aencont r ar el val or ms pr eci so.

TrFDG 259. 70mm594. 67mm10117. 82mm20140. 02mm50168. 77mm100190. 30mm500240. 08mm1000261. 48mm2000282. 87mm5000311. 14mm10000332. 52mm 0.03241568 48. 393071 o = oS[ =x p/ o X= X ni=1n p=0.54034 o=1.12847 CUENCA EL SAUCILLO27 -FUNCION DE DISTRIBUCION DOBLE GUMBEL. For mul as. F(x) =e-c-o1(x-1)jp+(1 p)e-c-o2(x-2)[ S=_ (X-X)ni=12n-1 p =NnNT Medi aydesvi aci nest ndar dedat osno ci cl ni cosyci cl ni cos.Noci cl ni cos. Ci cl ni cos.x1=55.7060606x2=142.25 s1=19. 9963894s2= 37. 03 0.05580607 46. 0811228 0. 01975563 119. 684286 P 0. 88571429 o = oS[ =x p/ o X= X ni=1n mHp MAXIMA mmDoble Gumbel1 1872 1583 1164 1085 946 92.57 86.78 869 7010 69.811 69.512 6913 6814 65.515 6516 6217 6218 60.519 56.520 5621 55.522 5523 5524 54.525 52.526 5027 49.528 48.729 4530 44.531 40.532 4033 38.534 3035 26CiclonicoNo ciclonicoTr F(x) FD2G F(x)2 0.5 56.00 mm -0.55 -0.5749147 0.56275287 1.26 -3.5188 0.02963461 0.89 0.5003441975 0.8 86.00 mm -2.23 -0.1077743 0.89783019 0.67 -1.9454 0.1429337 0.9 0.80988733610 0.9 113.00 mm -3.73 -0.0238856 0.97639741 0.13 -1.1412 0.31944568 0.92 0.90045552920 0.95 152.00 mm -5.91 -0.0027097 0.99729397 -0.64 -0.5281 0.58970813 0.95 0.95053035450 0.98 204.00 mm -8.81 -0.0001488 0.9998512 -1.67 -0.1891 0.82773991 0.98 0.980167262100 0.99 241.00 mm -10.88 -1.888E-05 0.99998112 -2.40 -0.091 0.91299886 0.99 0.990038325500 0.998 325.00 mm -15.57 -1.738E-07 0.99999983 -4.06 -0.0173 0.98283337 1 0.9980379251000 0.999 360.00 mm -17.52 -2.465E-08 0.99999998 -4.75 -0.0087 0.99136492 1 0.9990131092000 0.9995 395.00 mm -19.47 -3.495E-09 1 -5.44 -0.0043 0.99566575 1 0.9995046545000 0.9998 441.00 mm -22.04 -2.683E-10 1 -6.35 -0.0018 0.99825093 1 0.99980010610000 0.9999 477.00 mm -24.05 -3.599E-11 1 -7.06 -0.0009 0.99914073 1 0.999901798Doble Gumbele^(-e^(-1 (x-1 ) ) ) e^(-e^(-2 (x-2 ) ) ) CUENCA EL SAUCILLO28 Resumen de resultados de las funciones de probabilidad. Estacin N 34 Lagunillas. RESUMEN TrFDNFDLNFDPFDGFD2G 275. 44mm 80. 12mm 53. 68mm 69. 09mm 65. 70mm5109. 63mm 126. 18mm 83. 28mm 109. 00mm 98. 00mm10127. 50mm 159. 99mm 109. 79mm 135. 42mm 125. 00mm20142. 26mm 194. 65mm 138. 10mm 160. 77mm 165. 00mm50158. 87mm 242. 71mm 177. 25mm 193. 57mm 245. 00mm100169. 94mm 281. 17mm 207. 74mm 218. 15mm 280. 00mm500192. 36mm 378. 71mm 280. 40mm 274. 96mm 307. 00mm1000200. 97mm 424. 62mm 312. 26mm 299. 39mm 501. 00mm2000209. 11mm 473. 09mm 344. 37mm 323. 80mm 559. 00mm5000219. 24mm 541. 30mm 387. 13mm 356. 07mm 635. 00mm10000226. 51mm 596. 17mm 419. 68mm 380. 47mm 700. 00mm Estacin N 51 Jalpan.RESUMEN TrFDNFDLNFDPFDGFD2G 265. 06mm 70. 85mm 44. 15mm 59. 70mm 56. 00mm594. 36mm 122. 86mm 68. 07mm 94. 67mm 86. 00mm10109. 68mm 163. 83mm 89. 48mm 117. 82mm 113. 00mm20122. 32mm 207. 78mm 112. 36mm 140. 02mm 152. 00mm50136. 56mm 271. 49mm 144. 00mm 168. 77mm 204. 00mm100146. 05mm 324. 49mm 168. 64mm 190. 30mm 241. 00mm500165. 26mm 465. 54mm 227. 35mm 240. 08mm 325. 00mm1000172. 64mm 534. 81mm 253. 09mm 261. 48mm 360. 00mm2000179. 61mm 609. 68mm 279. 04mm 282. 87mm 395. 00mm5000188. 30mm 717. 79mm 313. 60mm 311. 14mm 441. 00mm10000194. 53mm 806. 92mm 339. 90mm 332. 52mm 477. 00mm CUENCA EL SAUCILLO29 Hp mmXr m Tr F(x) P(x) Xe (Xe-Xr)2Xe (Xe-Xr)2x2y Xe (Xe-Xr)2Xe (Xe-Xr)2Xe (Xe-Xr)2232 1 47.00 0.9787 0.0213 157.823 5502.192 239.368 54.292 5.304 2.652 174.562 3299.091 191.370 1650.794 240.00 64210 2 23.50 0.9574 0.0426 145.382 4175.496 202.902 50.384 4.113 2.057 144.874 4241.349 166.580 1885.282 176.00 1156118 3 15.67 0.9362 0.0638 137.323 373.361 182.300 4134.518 3.435 1.717 127.971 99.411 151.912 1150.032 147.00 841117 4 11.75 0.9149 0.0851 131.153 200.310 167.955 2596.384 2.965 1.482 116.245 0.571 141.384 594.560 131.00 196113 5 9.40 0.8936 0.1064 126.054 170.409 156.954 1931.979 2.607 1.304 107.334 32.100 133.120 404.800 121.00 64112.5 6 7.83 0.8723 0.1277 121.648 83.682 148.030 1262.408 2.321 1.160 100.195 151.425 126.285 190.022 113.00 0.25110 7 6.71 0.8511 0.1489 117.727 59.708 140.517 931.313 2.083 1.042 94.271 247.403 120.433 108.857 107.00 9108 8 5.88 0.8298 0.1702 114.165 38.011 134.023 677.211 1.881 0.941 89.234 352.152 115.299 53.277 102.00 36106 9 5.22 0.8085 0.1915 110.879 23.803 128.298 497.188 1.706 0.853 84.873 446.344 110.710 22.184 98.30 59.29101 10 4.70 0.7872 0.2128 107.809 46.368 123.171 491.572 1.553 0.776 81.044 398.252 106.549 30.787 94.50 42.2592.8 11 4.27 0.7660 0.2340 104.915 146.764 118.525 661.752 1.416 0.708 77.644 229.705 102.731 98.620 91.50 1.6992.8 12 3.92 0.7447 0.2553 102.162 87.653 114.269 460.922 1.294 0.647 74.599 331.288 99.194 40.888 88.50 18.4991 13 3.62 0.7234 0.2766 99.528 72.721 110.339 373.984 1.184 0.592 71.851 366.683 95.892 23.933 85.60 29.1690 14 3.36 0.7021 0.2979 96.991 48.869 106.682 278.282 1.084 0.542 69.357 426.130 92.787 7.767 83.30 44.8987 15 3.13 0.6809 0.3191 94.535 56.777 103.258 264.315 0.992 0.496 67.082 396.727 89.849 8.118 81.00 3686 16 2.94 0.6596 0.3404 92.147 37.790 100.034 196.950 0.909 0.454 64.998 441.088 87.055 1.113 78.90 50.4183.5 17 2.76 0.6383 0.3617 89.816 39.893 96.983 181.799 0.832 0.416 63.082 416.891 84.385 0.783 76.80 44.8983 18 2.61 0.6170 0.3830 87.531 20.533 94.084 122.849 0.761 0.381 61.316 470.207 81.822 1.388 75.00 6482 19 2.47 0.5957 0.4043 85.284 10.786 91.317 86.798 0.696 0.348 59.683 498.036 79.352 7.014 73.20 77.4481 20 2.35 0.5745 0.4255 83.067 4.272 88.666 58.764 0.635 0.317 58.171 521.141 76.962 16.302 71.30 94.0975.5 21 2.24 0.5532 0.4468 80.872 28.857 86.118 112.736 0.579 0.289 56.769 350.842 74.643 0.734 69.70 33.6475.5 22 2.14 0.5319 0.4681 78.693 10.194 83.660 66.592 0.526 0.263 55.467 401.325 72.385 9.704 68.10 54.7675 23 2.04 0.5106 0.4894 76.523 2.319 81.283 39.480 0.478 0.239 54.256 430.301 70.179 23.246 66.50 72.2570 24 1.96 0.4894 0.5106 74.356 18.977 78.977 80.585 0.433 0.216 53.130 284.588 68.017 3.933 64.90 26.0169.5 25 1.88 0.4681 0.5319 72.186 7.217 76.733 52.315 0.391 0.195 52.083 303.365 65.892 13.017 63.40 37.2167 26 1.81 0.4468 0.5532 70.007 9.044 74.543 56.902 0.352 0.176 51.108 252.560 63.798 10.253 61.90 26.0163.5 27 1.74 0.4255 0.5745 67.812 18.597 72.401 79.230 0.315 0.158 50.201 176.855 61.728 3.141 60.50 960 28 1.68 0.4043 0.5957 65.595 31.304 70.299 106.079 0.281 0.141 49.359 113.238 59.675 0.106 59.00 157.7 29 1.62 0.3830 0.6170 63.348 31.898 68.232 110.919 0.250 0.125 48.576 83.242 57.634 0.004 57.60 0.0157 30 1.57 0.3617 0.6383 61.063 16.508 66.192 84.490 0.221 0.110 47.851 83.707 55.597 1.969 56.30 0.4952.5 31 1.52 0.3404 0.6596 58.732 38.835 64.173 136.266 0.194 0.097 47.179 28.309 53.558 1.119 54.80 5.2952 32 1.47 0.3191 0.6809 56.344 18.871 62.170 103.423 0.169 0.085 46.559 29.600 51.510 0.240 53.50 2.2551 33 1.42 0.2979 0.7021 53.889 8.344 60.174 84.168 0.146 0.073 45.989 25.115 49.445 2.419 52.00 151 34 1.38 0.2766 0.7234 51.352 0.124 58.180 51.552 0.125 0.063 45.465 30.640 47.354 13.296 50.60 0.1650 35 1.34 0.2553 0.7447 48.717 1.647 56.179 38.178 0.106 0.053 44.986 25.139 45.226 22.788 49.20 0.6449.5 36 1.31 0.2340 0.7660 45.965 12.500 54.162 21.733 0.089 0.044 44.551 24.492 43.051 41.590 47.70 3.2448.5 37 1.27 0.2128 0.7872 43.070 29.488 52.118 13.093 0.073 0.036 44.158 18.851 40.813 59.092 46.20 5.2948.3 38 1.24 0.1915 0.8085 40.000 68.884 50.036 3.014 0.059 0.029 43.806 20.192 38.494 96.161 44.70 12.9645 39 1.21 0.1702 0.8298 36.714 68.660 47.898 8.401 0.046 0.023 43.494 2.267 36.070 79.739 43.00 445 40 1.18 0.1489 0.8511 33.152 140.373 45.685 0.469 0.035 0.018 43.221 3.164 33.510 132.009 41.30 13.6944.5 41 1.15 0.1277 0.8723 29.231 233.131 43.366 1.286 0.026 0.013 42.986 2.292 30.770 188.519 39.60 24.0140 42 1.12 0.1064 0.8936 24.825 230.278 40.900 0.811 0.018 0.009 42.788 7.773 27.782 149.289 37.40 6.7637.5 43 1.09 0.0851 0.9149 19.726 315.913 38.222 0.521 0.011 0.006 42.627 26.286 24.439 170.588 35.30 4.8437 44 1.07 0.0638 0.9362 13.557 549.593 35.214 3.190 0.006 0.003 42.502 30.274 20.551 270.575 33.00 1630.5 45 1.04 0.0426 0.9574 5.497 625.138 31.638 1.296 0.003 0.001 42.413 141.926 15.711 218.718 29.5 130 46 1.02 0.0213 0.9787 26.819 10.122 0.001 0.000 42.360 152.770 8.722 452.741 25 25Sumatoria. 13716.089 16580.5156 16415.107 8261.515 5186.2C= 117.1157075 128.765 128.121 90.893 72.015F2DG FDN FDLN FDP FDGPruebas de Bondad de ajuste: Estacin Lagunillas.Apl i caci ndel apr uebadel M ni moEr r or Cuadr t i co.1. Seor denar onl osdat osdel l uvi ademenor amayor ysel esasi gnoun numer omacadadat o.2.Secal cul el per i ododer et or nodecadadat oconl aecuaci ndewei bul l .Ir =n +1m 3. Secal cul l apr obabi l i daddeocur r enci ayl adenoocur r enci a. 4. Secal cul el val or esper adoXeconcadaunadel asdi st r i buci onespar a cadaper i ododer et or no, secompar conel dat oXr conel dat oest i mado Xe, haci endounadi f er enci aydi chadi f er enci aseel evaal cuadr ado. 5. Seobt uvol asumat or i adel asdi f er enci asel evadasal cuadr adoyse apl i cl aecuaci ndem ni moer r or cuadr t i co. C =(Xc Xr)2 CUENCA EL SAUCILLO30 Unavezqueser eal i zl apr uebaycompar andor esul t adossedet er mi nper o par aest aest aci nl amej or f unci nesDOBLEGUMBEL, debi doaquenosar r oj a unval or m ni modeer r or . Apl i caci ndel apr uebadel Er r or Est ndar .Lamet odol og aesl ami smaqueel er r or m ni mocuadr adosol oqueaqu se ocupal aecuaci ndeEr r or Est ndar .EE =(Xc Xr)2/ P- 1 Apl i candoel er r or est ndar t ambi nnosar r oj aunval or deer r or m ni moen l af unci ndedi st r i buci nDOBLEGUMBEL. Hp mmXr m Tr F(x) P(x) Xe (Xe-Xr)2Xe (Xe-Xr)2x2y Xe (Xe-Xr)2Xe (Xe-Xr)2Xe (Xe-Xr)2232 1 47.00 0.9787 0.0213 157.823 5502.192 239.368 54.292 5.304 2.652 174.562 3299.091 191.370 1650.794 240.00 64210 2 23.50 0.9574 0.0426 145.382 4175.496 202.902 50.384 4.113 2.057 144.874 4241.349 166.580 1885.282 176.00 1156118 3 15.67 0.9362 0.0638 137.323 373.361 182.300 4134.518 3.435 1.717 127.971 99.411 151.912 1150.032 147.00 841117 4 11.75 0.9149 0.0851 131.153 200.310 167.955 2596.384 2.965 1.482 116.245 0.571 141.384 594.560 131.00 196113 5 9.40 0.8936 0.1064 126.054 170.409 156.954 1931.979 2.607 1.304 107.334 32.100 133.120 404.800 121.00 64112.5 6 7.83 0.8723 0.1277 121.648 83.682 148.030 1262.408 2.321 1.160 100.195 151.425 126.285 190.022 113.00 0.25110 7 6.71 0.8511 0.1489 117.727 59.708 140.517 931.313 2.083 1.042 94.271 247.403 120.433 108.857 107.00 9108 8 5.88 0.8298 0.1702 114.165 38.011 134.023 677.211 1.881 0.941 89.234 352.152 115.299 53.277 102.00 36106 9 5.22 0.8085 0.1915 110.879 23.803 128.298 497.188 1.706 0.853 84.873 446.344 110.710 22.184 98.30 59.29101 10 4.70 0.7872 0.2128 107.809 46.368 123.171 491.572 1.553 0.776 81.044 398.252 106.549 30.787 94.50 42.2592.8 11 4.27 0.7660 0.2340 104.915 146.764 118.525 661.752 1.416 0.708 77.644 229.705 102.731 98.620 91.50 1.6992.8 12 3.92 0.7447 0.2553 102.162 87.653 114.269 460.922 1.294 0.647 74.599 331.288 99.194 40.888 88.50 18.4991 13 3.62 0.7234 0.2766 99.528 72.721 110.339 373.984 1.184 0.592 71.851 366.683 95.892 23.933 85.60 29.1690 14 3.36 0.7021 0.2979 96.991 48.869 106.682 278.282 1.084 0.542 69.357 426.130 92.787 7.767 83.30 44.8987 15 3.13 0.6809 0.3191 94.535 56.777 103.258 264.315 0.992 0.496 67.082 396.727 89.849 8.118 81.00 3686 16 2.94 0.6596 0.3404 92.147 37.790 100.034 196.950 0.909 0.454 64.998 441.088 87.055 1.113 78.90 50.4183.5 17 2.76 0.6383 0.3617 89.816 39.893 96.983 181.799 0.832 0.416 63.082 416.891 84.385 0.783 76.80 44.8983 18 2.61 0.6170 0.3830 87.531 20.533 94.084 122.849 0.761 0.381 61.316 470.207 81.822 1.388 75.00 6482 19 2.47 0.5957 0.4043 85.284 10.786 91.317 86.798 0.696 0.348 59.683 498.036 79.352 7.014 73.20 77.4481 20 2.35 0.5745 0.4255 83.067 4.272 88.666 58.764 0.635 0.317 58.171 521.141 76.962 16.302 71.30 94.0975.5 21 2.24 0.5532 0.4468 80.872 28.857 86.118 112.736 0.579 0.289 56.769 350.842 74.643 0.734 69.70 33.6475.5 22 2.14 0.5319 0.4681 78.693 10.194 83.660 66.592 0.526 0.263 55.467 401.325 72.385 9.704 68.10 54.7675 23 2.04 0.5106 0.4894 76.523 2.319 81.283 39.480 0.478 0.239 54.256 430.301 70.179 23.246 66.50 72.2570 24 1.96 0.4894 0.5106 74.356 18.977 78.977 80.585 0.433 0.216 53.130 284.588 68.017 3.933 64.90 26.0169.5 25 1.88 0.4681 0.5319 72.186 7.217 76.733 52.315 0.391 0.195 52.083 303.365 65.892 13.017 63.40 37.2167 26 1.81 0.4468 0.5532 70.007 9.044 74.543 56.902 0.352 0.176 51.108 252.560 63.798 10.253 61.90 26.0163.5 27 1.74 0.4255 0.5745 67.812 18.597 72.401 79.230 0.315 0.158 50.201 176.855 61.728 3.141 60.50 960 28 1.68 0.4043 0.5957 65.595 31.304 70.299 106.079 0.281 0.141 49.359 113.238 59.675 0.106 59.00 157.7 29 1.62 0.3830 0.6170 63.348 31.898 68.232 110.919 0.250 0.125 48.576 83.242 57.634 0.004 57.60 0.0157 30 1.57 0.3617 0.6383 61.063 16.508 66.192 84.490 0.221 0.110 47.851 83.707 55.597 1.969 56.30 0.4952.5 31 1.52 0.3404 0.6596 58.732 38.835 64.173 136.266 0.194 0.097 47.179 28.309 53.558 1.119 54.80 5.2952 32 1.47 0.3191 0.6809 56.344 18.871 62.170 103.423 0.169 0.085 46.559 29.600 51.510 0.240 53.50 2.2551 33 1.42 0.2979 0.7021 53.889 8.344 60.174 84.168 0.146 0.073 45.989 25.115 49.445 2.419 52.00 151 34 1.38 0.2766 0.7234 51.352 0.124 58.180 51.552 0.125 0.063 45.465 30.640 47.354 13.296 50.60 0.1650 35 1.34 0.2553 0.7447 48.717 1.647 56.179 38.178 0.106 0.053 44.986 25.139 45.226 22.788 49.20 0.6449.5 36 1.31 0.2340 0.7660 45.965 12.500 54.162 21.733 0.089 0.044 44.551 24.492 43.051 41.590 47.70 3.2448.5 37 1.27 0.2128 0.7872 43.070 29.488 52.118 13.093 0.073 0.036 44.158 18.851 40.813 59.092 46.20 5.2948.3 38 1.24 0.1915 0.8085 40.000 68.884 50.036 3.014 0.059 0.029 43.806 20.192 38.494 96.161 44.70 12.9645 39 1.21 0.1702 0.8298 36.714 68.660 47.898 8.401 0.046 0.023 43.494 2.267 36.070 79.739 43.00 445 40 1.18 0.1489 0.8511 33.152 140.373 45.685 0.469 0.035 0.018 43.221 3.164 33.510 132.009 41.30 13.6944.5 41 1.15 0.1277 0.8723 29.231 233.131 43.366 1.286 0.026 0.013 42.986 2.292 30.770 188.519 39.60 24.0140 42 1.12 0.1064 0.8936 24.825 230.278 40.900 0.811 0.018 0.009 42.788 7.773 27.782 149.289 37.40 6.7637.5 43 1.09 0.0851 0.9149 19.726 315.913 38.222 0.521 0.011 0.006 42.627 26.286 24.439 170.588 35.30 4.8437 44 1.07 0.0638 0.9362 13.557 549.593 35.214 3.190 0.006 0.003 42.502 30.274 20.551 270.575 33.00 1630.5 45 1.04 0.0426 0.9574 5.497 625.138 31.638 1.296 0.003 0.001 42.413 141.926 15.711 218.718 29.5 130 46 1.02 0.0213 0.9787 26.819 10.122 0.001 0.000 42.360 152.770 8.722 452.741 25 25Sumatoria. 13716.089 16580.5156 16415.107 8261.515 5186.2EE= 117.1157075 128.765351 90.59555 64.27097 41.578F2DG FDN FDLN FDP FDG CUENCA EL SAUCILLO31 Pruebas de Bondad de ajuste: Estacin JALPAN.Apl i caci ndel apr uebadel M ni moEr r or Cuadr t i co.6. Seor denar onl osdat osdel l uvi ademenor amayor ysel esasi gnoun numer omacadadat o.7.Secal cul el per i ododer et or nodecadadat oconl aecuaci ndewei bul l .Ir =n +1m 8. Secal cul l apr obabi l i daddeocur r enci ayl adenoocur r enci a. 9. Secal cul el val or esper adoXeconcadaunadel asdi st r i buci onespar a cadaper i ododer et or no, secompar conel dat oXr conel dat oest i mado Xe, haci endounadi f er enci aydi chadi f er enci aseel evaal cuadr ado. 10. Seobt uvol asumat or i adel asdi f er enci asel evadasal cuadr adoyse apl i cl aecuaci ndem ni moer r or cuadr t i co. C =(Xc Xr)2 Unavezqueser eal i zl apr uebaycompar andor esul t adossedet er mi nper o par aest aest aci nl amej or f unci nesGUMBEL, debi doaquenosar r oj aun val or m ni modeer r or .Hp mmXr m Tr F(x) P(x) Xe (Xe-Xr)2Xe (Xe-Xr)2x2y Xe (Xe-Xr)2Xe (Xe-Xr)2Xe (Xe-Xr)2187 1 36.00 0.9722 0.0278 131.711 3056.892 247.855 3703.379 4.84181 2.4209 132.516 2968.54 158.508 811.766 186 1158 2 18.00 0.9444 0.0556 120.526 1404.298 200.875 1838.274 3.66533 1.83267 108.817 2419.01 136.681 454.480 145 169116 3 12.00 0.9167 0.0833 113.208 7.797 175.067 3488.933 2.99866 1.49933 95.387 424.897 123.718 59.571 123 49108 4 9.00 0.8889 0.1111 107.556 0.197 157.428 2443.156 2.53835 1.26917 86.114 478.984 114.377 40.665 108 094 5 7.20 0.8611 0.1389 102.845 78.234 144.093 2509.276 2.19023 1.09511 79.102 221.959 107.014 169.372 98 1692.5 6 6.00 0.8333 0.1667 98.740 38.944 133.397 1672.602 1.91267 0.95634 73.511 360.597 100.898 70.526 90.8 2.8986.7 7 5.14 0.8056 0.1944 95.058 69.852 124.479 1427.231 1.68362 0.84181 68.896 316.966 95.637 79.870 85.4 1.6986 8 4.50 0.7778 0.2222 91.684 32.303 116.832 950.590 1.48996 0.74498 64.995 441.191 90.997 24.975 80.8 27.0470 9 4.00 0.7500 0.2500 88.543 343.836 110.136 1610.923 1.3233 0.66165 61.638 69.9192 86.828 283.187 77 4969.8 10 3.60 0.7222 0.2778 85.583 249.090 104.177 1181.810 1.17793 0.58897 58.710 122.993 83.025 174.912 73.7 15.2169.5 11 3.27 0.6944 0.3056 82.764 175.931 98.803 858.693 1.04979 0.52489 56.129 178.797 79.515 100.299 70.7 1.4469 12 3.00 0.6667 0.3333 80.057 122.254 93.903 620.183 0.9359 0.46795 53.834 229.996 76.241 52.437 68.2 0.6468 13 2.77 0.6389 0.3611 77.438 89.069 89.394 457.701 0.83403 0.41701 51.782 263.02 73.162 26.648 65.8 4.8465.5 14 2.57 0.6111 0.3889 74.887 88.112 85.210 388.496 0.74241 0.37121 49.937 242.217 70.244 22.504 63.6 3.6165 15 2.40 0.5833 0.4167 72.388 54.578 81.301 265.738 0.6597 0.32985 48.270 279.879 67.459 6.048 61.5 12.2562 16 2.25 0.5556 0.4444 69.926 62.819 77.626 244.180 0.58478 0.29239 46.761 232.218 64.786 7.762 60 462 17 2.12 0.5278 0.4722 67.488 30.119 74.151 147.641 0.51677 0.25839 45.391 275.849 62.205 0.042 57.8 17.6460.5 18 2.00 0.5000 0.5000 65.062 20.813 70.847 107.053 0.45494 0.22747 44.146 267.464 59.700 0.640 56 20.2556.5 19 1.89 0.4722 0.5278 62.636 37.654 67.690 125.210 0.39867 0.19933 43.012 181.921 57.255 0.570 54.3 4.8456 20 1.80 0.4444 0.5556 60.199 17.627 64.659 74.981 0.34746 0.17373 41.981 196.543 54.858 1.304 52.6 11.5655.5 21 1.71 0.4167 0.5833 57.737 5.003 61.736 38.890 0.30088 0.15044 41.042 209.026 52.496 9.025 51.1 19.3655 22 1.64 0.3889 0.6111 55.238 0.056 58.904 15.243 0.25856 0.12928 40.190 219.341 50.156 23.466 49.5 30.2555 23 1.57 0.3611 0.6389 52.687 5.352 56.147 1.317 0.2202 0.1101 39.417 242.828 47.825 51.474 48 4954.5 24 1.50 0.3333 0.6667 50.067 19.647 53.451 1.100 0.18553 0.09276 38.719 249.052 45.492 81.148 46.5 6452.5 25 1.44 0.3056 0.6944 47.360 26.415 50.800 2.889 0.15432 0.07716 38.090 207.651 43.140 87.602 45 56.2550 26 1.38 0.2778 0.7222 44.542 29.792 48.180 3.313 0.12637 0.06319 37.527 155.575 40.755 85.468 43.4 43.5649.5 27 1.33 0.2500 0.7500 41.582 62.703 45.573 15.421 0.10153 0.05077 37.027 155.586 38.317 125.067 41.9 57.7648.7 28 1.29 0.2222 0.7778 38.441 105.253 42.961 32.932 0.07965 0.03982 36.586 146.755 35.801 166.383 40.3 70.5645 29 1.24 0.1944 0.8056 35.067 98.673 40.322 21.883 0.0606 0.0303 36.202 77.4046 33.177 139.782 38.6 40.9644.5 30 1.20 0.1667 0.8333 31.384 172.034 37.626 47.248 0.04428 0.02214 35.873 74.4195 30.402 198.758 36.9 57.7640.5 31 1.16 0.1389 0.8611 27.279 174.786 34.833 32.110 0.03061 0.01531 35.598 24.0298 27.412 171.285 35.1 29.1640 32 1.13 0.1111 0.8889 22.569 303.852 31.883 65.890 0.01952 0.00976 35.375 21.3949 24.109 252.534 33 4938.5 33 1.09 0.0833 0.9167 16.917 465.838 28.670 96.621 0.01095 0.00547 35.202 10.8776 20.313 330.767 30.7 60.8430 34 1.06 0.0556 0.9444 9.598 416.230 24.987 25.131 0.00486 0.00243 35.079 25.7979 15.650 205.919 27.9 4.4126 35 1.03 0.0278 0.9722 676.000 20.251 33.054 0.00121 0.00061 35.006 81.1038 9.019 288.363 23.9 4.41Sumatoria 8542.053 24549.092 12073.8 4604.62 10423.19C= 92.423 156.681 109.881 67.857 102.094FD2G FDG FDN FDLN FDP CUENCA EL SAUCILLO32 Apl i caci ndel apr uebadel Er r or Est ndar .Lamet odol og aesl ami smaqueel er r or m ni mocuadr adosol oqueaqu se ocupal aecuaci ndeEr r or Est ndar .EE =(Xc Xr)2/ P- 1 Apl i candoel er r or est ndar t ambi nnosar r oj aunval or deer r or m ni moen l af unci ndedi st r i buci nDOBLEGUMBEL. Hp mmXr m Tr F(x) P(x) Xe (Xe-Xr)2Xe (Xe-Xr)2x2y Xe (Xe-Xr)2Xe (Xe-Xr)2Xe (Xe-Xr)2187 1 36.00 0.9722 0.0278 131.711 3056.892 247.855 3703.379 4.84181 2.4209 132.516 2968.54 158.508 811.766 186 1158 2 18.00 0.9444 0.0556 120.526 1404.298 200.875 1838.274 3.66533 1.83267 108.817 2419.01 136.681 454.480 145 169116 3 12.00 0.9167 0.0833 113.208 7.797 175.067 3488.933 2.99866 1.49933 95.387 424.897 123.718 59.571 123 49108 4 9.00 0.8889 0.1111 107.556 0.197 157.428 2443.156 2.53835 1.26917 86.114 478.984 114.377 40.665 108 094 5 7.20 0.8611 0.1389 102.845 78.234 144.093 2509.276 2.19023 1.09511 79.102 221.959 107.014 169.372 98 1692.5 6 6.00 0.8333 0.1667 98.740 38.944 133.397 1672.602 1.91267 0.95634 73.511 360.597 100.898 70.526 90.8 2.8986.7 7 5.14 0.8056 0.1944 95.058 69.852 124.479 1427.231 1.68362 0.84181 68.896 316.966 95.637 79.870 85.4 1.6986 8 4.50 0.7778 0.2222 91.684 32.303 116.832 950.590 1.48996 0.74498 64.995 441.191 90.997 24.975 80.8 27.0470 9 4.00 0.7500 0.2500 88.543 343.836 110.136 1610.923 1.3233 0.66165 61.638 69.9192 86.828 283.187 77 4969.8 10 3.60 0.7222 0.2778 85.583 249.090 104.177 1181.810 1.17793 0.58897 58.710 122.993 83.025 174.912 73.7 15.2169.5 11 3.27 0.6944 0.3056 82.764 175.931 98.803 858.693 1.04979 0.52489 56.129 178.797 79.515 100.299 70.7 1.4469 12 3.00 0.6667 0.3333 80.057 122.254 93.903 620.183 0.9359 0.46795 53.834 229.996 76.241 52.437 68.2 0.6468 13 2.77 0.6389 0.3611 77.438 89.069 89.394 457.701 0.83403 0.41701 51.782 263.02 73.162 26.648 65.8 4.8465.5 14 2.57 0.6111 0.3889 74.887 88.112 85.210 388.496 0.74241 0.37121 49.937 242.217 70.244 22.504 63.6 3.6165 15 2.40 0.5833 0.4167 72.388 54.578 81.301 265.738 0.6597 0.32985 48.270 279.879 67.459 6.048 61.5 12.2562 16 2.25 0.5556 0.4444 69.926 62.819 77.626 244.180 0.58478 0.29239 46.761 232.218 64.786 7.762 60 462 17 2.12 0.5278 0.4722 67.488 30.119 74.151 147.641 0.51677 0.25839 45.391 275.849 62.205 0.042 57.8 17.6460.5 18 2.00 0.5000 0.5000 65.062 20.813 70.847 107.053 0.45494 0.22747 44.146 267.464 59.700 0.640 56 20.2556.5 19 1.89 0.4722 0.5278 62.636 37.654 67.690 125.210 0.39867 0.19933 43.012 181.921 57.255 0.570 54.3 4.8456 20 1.80 0.4444 0.5556 60.199 17.627 64.659 74.981 0.34746 0.17373 41.981 196.543 54.858 1.304 52.6 11.5655.5 21 1.71 0.4167 0.5833 57.737 5.003 61.736 38.890 0.30088 0.15044 41.042 209.026 52.496 9.025 51.1 19.3655 22 1.64 0.3889 0.6111 55.238 0.056 58.904 15.243 0.25856 0.12928 40.190 219.341 50.156 23.466 49.5 30.2555 23 1.57 0.3611 0.6389 52.687 5.352 56.147 1.317 0.2202 0.1101 39.417 242.828 47.825 51.474 48 4954.5 24 1.50 0.3333 0.6667 50.067 19.647 53.451 1.100 0.18553 0.09276 38.719 249.052 45.492 81.148 46.5 6452.5 25 1.44 0.3056 0.6944 47.360 26.415 50.800 2.889 0.15432 0.07716 38.090 207.651 43.140 87.602 45 56.2550 26 1.38 0.2778 0.7222 44.542 29.792 48.180 3.313 0.12637 0.06319 37.527 155.575 40.755 85.468 43.4 43.5649.5 27 1.33 0.2500 0.7500 41.582 62.703 45.573 15.421 0.10153 0.05077 37.027 155.586 38.317 125.067 41.9 57.7648.7 28 1.29 0.2222 0.7778 38.441 105.253 42.961 32.932 0.07965 0.03982 36.586 146.755 35.801 166.383 40.3 70.5645 29 1.24 0.1944 0.8056 35.067 98.673 40.322 21.883 0.0606 0.0303 36.202 77.4046 33.177 139.782 38.6 40.9644.5 30 1.20 0.1667 0.8333 31.384 172.034 37.626 47.248 0.04428 0.02214 35.873 74.4195 30.402 198.758 36.9 57.7640.5 31 1.16 0.1389 0.8611 27.279 174.786 34.833 32.110 0.03061 0.01531 35.598 24.0298 27.412 171.285 35.1 29.1640 32 1.13 0.1111 0.8889 22.569 303.852 31.883 65.890 0.01952 0.00976 35.375 21.3949 24.109 252.534 33 4938.5 33 1.09 0.0833 0.9167 16.917 465.838 28.670 96.621 0.01095 0.00547 35.202 10.8776 20.313 330.767 30.7 60.8430 34 1.06 0.0556 0.9444 9.598 416.230 24.987 25.131 0.00486 0.00243 35.079 25.7979 15.650 205.919 27.9 4.4126 35 1.03 0.0278 0.9722 676.000 20.251 33.054 0.00121 0.00061 35.006 81.1038 9.019 288.363 23.9 4.41Sumatoria 8542.053 24549.092 12073.8 4604.62 10423.19EE= 92.4232262 156.681499 77.6975 67.85735 58.94401FD2G FDG FDN FDLN FDP CUENCA EL SAUCILLO33 Resumender esul t ados.Enl asi gui ent et abl asemuest r anl osr esul t adosobt eni dospor medi odelanl i si sdel aspr uebasyl oqueseobt uvo.PruebaEstacin lagunillas. Estacin Jalpan. C Doble GumbelGumbel EE Doble GumbelDoble Gumbel Sel ecci ndel amej or f unci n.Unavezqueser eal i zar onl aspr uebassedet er mi nquel amej or f unci ones DOBLEGUMBEL, yaquecumpl ecasi ent odas, except oenunapr ueba, conelm ni moer r or l oquepar acl cul osdedi seosever r ef l ej adoconms pr eci si n. CUENCA EL SAUCILLO34 PARAMETROS PARA LA APLICACIN DE METODOS LLUVIA-ESCURRIMIENTO. Resumendecar act er st i casf si casdel acuenca.rea de la cuenca= 22.190 km2. Longitud del cauce principal: 115.59 km. Smcp=.587 D= 6785.04 m Coef i ci ent esdeescur r i mi ent osegnusosdesuel o.Car t aUsodeSuel o rea de la cuenca= 22.190 km2. Promedio PonderadoBOSQUE CADUCIFOLIO Ce= 0.2BOSQUE NATURAL Ce= 0.2PASTIZAL NATURAL Ce= 0.1250.1990.16 km219.69 km22.33 km2 CUENCA EL SAUCILLO35 Anl i si sdepr eci pi t aci nei nt ensi daddedi seosegnecuaci ones deKui chl i ng.Resumendecar act er st i casf si casdel acuenca.rea de la cuenca= 22.190 km2. Longitud del cauce principal: 115.59 km. Smcp=.587 D= 6785.04 m Estacin Lagunillas.Ti empodeconcent r aci n.Esel t i empoquet ar dal al l uvi aenr ecor r er el caucedesdesui ni ci ohast a suf i n. El t i empodeconcent r aci nsepuedecal cul ar conl assi gui ent es ecuaci onesyapar t i r deel l asseel egi r el t i empodeconcent r aci nMENOR. -Ki r pi ch. Tc= 7. 66hr s.-Soi l conser vat i onser vi ci e. Tc= 7. 21hr s.-Rowe. Tc= 7. 66hr s. Not a: Debi doaquesol oset i enendosest aci onesconmsaosder egi st r o ypor el l onosepudohacer el mt ododePol gonosdeThi essenysehi zo unpr omedi oponder adopar ar eal i zar l ossi gui ent escl cul osut i l i zandol a est aci nLaguni l l asyaqueesl aest aci ndemayor i nf l uenci aycondat os depr eci pi t aci onesmsal t ol oquenossi r vemej or par acl cul osdedi seo. tc =0.000325Lcp0.S0.38S = 0.000325115588.430..05870.38S tc =Icp1.153085(0.385)= 115588.431.153085(6785.040.385)tc =_0.87Icp3_0.385=_0.87(115.59)36785.04_0.385

CUENCA EL SAUCILLO36 Pr eci pi t aci ndedi seoeI nt ensi daddedi seo.Secal cul anapar t i r del asecuaci onesdeKui chl i ng:Coeficiente k de Kuichling k =p

(1 c)241-c Precipitacin de diseo. pd=k (tc1-c)1c Intensidad de diseo. i =k (1-c)tcc e= 0. 58 Donde:k= coef i ci ent eadi mensi onal .e = coef i ci ent equedependedel t i empodeconcent r aci n, adi mensi onalhp

= pr eci pi t aci npr omedi oenl acuencasi haymsdeunaest aci ncl i mat ol gi ca,unavezdet er mi nadosl osval or esdepr eci pi t aci nmxi maen24hr s.medi ant eunaf unci ndedi st r i buci n.hpd= pr eci pi t aci ndedi seo, enmm.tc= t i empodeconcent r aci n, enhor as.Par acadaper i ododer et or noquet enemoscal cul amosl ospar met r osde kui chl i ng. Trhp max 24 hrs. FDP: Doble gumbel.khpd (mm)i (mm/hr)2 65.7 7.2640.025.555 98 10.83 59.698.2810 125 13.82 76.1410.5620 165 18.24 100.5013.9450 245 27.08 149.2220.70100 280 30.95 170.5423.65500 307 33.94 186.9925.931000 501 55.39 305.1542.322000 559 61.80 340.4847.225000 635 70.20 386.7753.6410000 700 77.39 426.3659.13 CUENCA EL SAUCILLO37 Rel aci nl l uvi a- escur r i mi ent o. Fasesdel pr ocesol l uvi a- escur r i mi ent o. El pr ocesol l uvi a- escur r i mi ent oenzonasur banas, pr esent acar act er st i cas muypecul i ar es, descr i bi endoacont i nuaci nl asf asesmsr el evant es. 1. Lal l uvi aesi nt er cept adapar ci al ment epor l aveget aci n, pr i nci pal ment e por l asr amasdel osr bol es, ant esdel l egar al suel o. 2. Al l l egar l al l uvi al asuel osepr esent andosf enmenossi mul t neos:Lal l uvi asei nf i l t r aenel t er r eno.Comi enzaamoj ar sel asuper f i ci e, l l enandol asdepr esi ones. 3. Lospr ocesosant er i or escont i nanhast af or mar seunt i r ant esuf i ci ent e quer ompal at ensi nsuper f i ci al . Est ehechosucedecuandol ai nt ensi dad del al l uvi aesmayor quel acapaci daddei nf i l t r aci ndel t er r eno. Se i ni ci ael escur r i mi ent osuper f i ci al . 4. Al ocur r i r el escur r i mi ent osuper f i ci al sepr esent anvar i ospr ocesos si mul t neos:El aguasei nf i l t r aconunavel oci dadvar i abl e( dependedel gr adode sat ur aci ndel t er r eno, i nt ensi daddel al l uvi ayvol umendeaguaal macenado sobr el asuper f i ci e) .Lasdepr esi onesmsgr andesdel t er r enocont i nanl l enndose.Sepr oduceel escur r i mi ent oenel cual l ost i r ant esyl asvel oci dades var anenf or macont i nuaysongober nadospor l asecuaci onesdecont i nui dad ycant i daddemovi mi ent o. Est epr ocesoesal i ment adopor l al l uvi aef ect i va. 5. El aguaquel l egaal ascunet asseacumul aenel l as, hast aquesef or ma unt i r ant esuf i ci ent eyescur r ehaci al ascol ader as. 6. El aguaquel l egaal ascol ader asi ngr esaal si st emadedr enaj e. 7. El escur r i mi ent oenl oscol ect or esdedr enaj eest gober nadopor l as ecuaci onesdecont i nui dadycant i daddemovi mi ent o.I ni ci al ment eel escur r i mi ent oesasuper f i ci el i br e.Despus, cuandol acapaci daddel osconduct or esnoessuf i ci ent e, el agua escur r eapr esi nyenocasi onespuededer r amar se. CUENCA EL SAUCILLO38 Mt odoRaci onal amer i cano.Car t aUsodeSuel o rea de la cuenca= 22.190 km2. Ti empode concent r aci n. Tc= 7. 21Hr s I nt ensi dadde di seo. i =hpd1c Gast odedi seo. =0.278 Cc i Ac Promedio PonderadoBOSQUE CADUCIFOLIO Ce= 0.2BOSQUE NATURAL Ce= 0.2PASTIZAL NATURAL Ce= 0.1250.1990.16 km219.69 km22.33 km2Tr Ce hpdi(mm/hr)QMRAm3/s2 0.199 40.025.556.827 5 0.199 59.698.2810.183 10 0.199 76.1410.56 12.989 20 0.199 100.50 13.94 17.146 50 0.199 149.22 20.70 25.458 100 0.199 170.54 23.65 29.095 500 0.199 186.99 25.93 31.901 1000 0.199 305.15 42.32 52.060 2000 0.199 340.48 47.22 58.087 5000 0.199 386.77 53.64 65.984 10000 0.199 426.36 59.13 72.739 CUENCA EL SAUCILLO39 Hi dr ogr amaUni t ar i oTr i angul ar .Par acomenzar adesar r ol l ar est emt odoesnecesar i ot ener l ossi gui ent es el ement os. Conl af i nal i daddeobt ener ungast odedi seopor el mt odode hi dr ogr amauni t ar i ot r i angul ar .El ement osdeanl i si s.-Ti empoder et r aso( t r ) .4. 33hr .-Ti empopi co( t p)t p=0. 5*d+ t r =0. 5*7. 21+ 4. 33=7. 93hr .-Ti empobase( t b) .t b=2. 67*t p=2. 67*7. 93= 21. 18hr .-Pr eci pi t aci nef ect i va Ecuaci onesdeGast os. Donde:Q= m3/ s Ac= Km2 t b, t p= hr s.hpe= mm t r =0. 6*t c=0. 6*7. 21= p =0.555 Actb hpep =0.208 Actp hpe hpe=Ce hpd Promedio PonderadoBOSQUE CADUCIFOLIO Ce= 0.2BOSQUE NATURAL Ce= 0.2PASTIZAL NATURAL Ce= 0.1252.33 km20.199 19.69 km20.16 km2rea de la cuenca=22.19 Km2Trhpd Kuichlinghpe mmQHUT m3/seg2 40.027.984.645 59.6911.90 6.9310 76.1415.18 8.8320 100.50 20.04 11.66 50 149.22 29.76 17.32 100 170.54 34.01 19.79 500 186.99 37.29 21.70 1000 305.15 60.85 35.41 2000 340.48 67.89 39.51 5000 386.77 77.12 44.88 10000 426.36 85.02 49.48 CUENCA EL SAUCILLO40 VenTeChow.Par ael cl cul odegast odedi seopor el mt odoVenTeChow, esnecesar i o r et omar l osdat osant er i or ment ecal cul ados, comosonl apr eci pi t aci nde di seoqueseobt uvoconl asecuaci onesdekui cl i ng, as comol ost i empos deconcent r aci nquecor r espondenal ami smacuenca. Tambi nseocupanl os dat osf si cosdel acuencacomoesel r eayl al ongi t uddel caucepr i nci pal .Unavezr euni dosl osdat osant esmenci onadossepr ocedeal cl cul o.Dat os. -Ti empodeconcent r aci n= 7. 21hor as -Cal cul ar pr eci pi t aci nef ect i va. -Seest abl eceque: de= t c.-Ti empoder et r aso.4. 93Hor as.4. 33Hor as Por l ot ant oset omael menor . -Rel aci nent r eel t i empodeconcent r aci nyel t i empoder et r aso.1. 67 Promedio PonderadoBOSQUE CADUCIFOLIO Ce= 0.2BOSQUE NATURAL Ce= 0.2PASTIZAL NATURAL Ce= 0.1252.33 km20.199 19.69 km20.16 km2rea de la cuenca=22.19 Km2hpe=Ce hpd tr =0.005_ IS_0.64=0.005_115588.435.86_0.64=tr=0.6*tc=0.6*7.21=Jctr=7.214.93= CUENCA EL SAUCILLO41 -Cal cul ar Z.( Z= 0. 89) -Cal cul ar gast o. Donde:Q= m3/ s Ac= Km2 de= hr s.hpe= mmZ= const ant e. =0.278 pc AcJc ZTr hpd Kuichlinghpe mmQVTC m3/seg2 40.02 7.986.085 59.69 11.90 9.0610 76.14 15.18 11.56 20 100.50 20.04 15.26 50 149.22 29.76 22.66 100 170.54 34.01 25.89 500 186.99 37.29 28.39 1000 305.15 60.85 46.33 2000 340.48 67.89 51.70 5000 386.77 77.12 58.73 10000 426.36 85.02 64.74 CUENCA EL SAUCILLO42 Tabl ar esumenySel ecci ndegast osdedi seo.Sepr esent al at abl aquecont i enel osgast osdedi seoar r oj adospor l os t r esmt odosvi st osant er i or ment eyf i nal ment epar aef ect osdedi seose t omar onl osgast ossemej ant espar ar eal i zar unpr omedi oypoder acer car nos aungast odedi seomspt i mo( Qd) . CONCLUSI ONESFI NALES.Fi nal ment ecomor esul t adodeest eest udi oseobt uvol aher r ami ent a f undament al par ael di seodeobr ashi dr ul i casquepuedenser dedr enaj e odei nf r aest r uct ur ayt odoest oapar t i r del ascar act er st i casf si cas del acuencadeest udi o, nosi nant eshaber r eal i zadoel anl i si st er i co enel aul a, par ael posi bl ecal cul o, yaunavezdet er mi nadasl asest aci ones hi dr omt r i casycl i mat ol gi cas, par aobt ener l osr egi st r osdei nf or maci n necesar i ayas r eal i zar l oscl cul osdemaner acl ar a, obt eni endogast os dedi seopar al acuencaEl Sauci l l o. TrQMRAm3/sQHUT m3/segQVTC m3/segQd2 6.83 4.64 6.08 6.455 10.18 6.93 9.06 9.6210 12.99 8.83 11.56 12.2720 17.15 11.66 15.26 16.2050 25.46 17.32 22.66 24.06100 29.10 19.79 25.89 27.50500 31.90 21.70 28.39 30.151000 52.06 35.41 46.33 49.202000 58.09 39.51 51.70 54.895000 65.98 44.88 58.73 62.3610000 72.74 49.48 64.74 68.74 CUENCA EL SAUCILLO43 BIBLIOGRAFIA. 1. Apar i ci oMi j ar esFr anci scoJ . Fundament osdehi dr ol og a super f i ci al , Ed. Lamusa, Nor i egaEdi t or es, Mxi coD. F, 1987. 2. Chow VenTe, Hi dr ol og aApl i cada, Edi t or i al McGr aw Hi l l , 1994. 3. ht t p: / / www. i negi . or g. mx 4. ht t p: / / www. desar r ol l osoci al . guanaj uat o. gob. mx