ESTIMATING THE URBAN CARRYING CAPACITY OF BAGUIO CITY

127 September 2019

PHILIPPINES ECONOMICS SOCIETY

THE BEDROCK OF CARRYING CAPACITY

Malthusian Principle of Population was

considered the bedrock of carrying capacity

framework. The Malthusian principle was very

simple even in its mathematical model. The

model predicts that when population remains

unchecked, it will grow exponentially while

(food) production will only grow linearly.

Simply put, time will come that land which is a

fixed input to production will yield an output

that will, in the long run, result to a diminishing

return.

URBAN CARRYING CAPACITY

THE ABILITY OF THE URBAN AREA TO ACCOMMODATE

POPULATION GROWTH WITHOUT

CAUSING SUBSTANTIAL

DAMAGES AND DEGRADATION TO THE ENVIRONMENT

THE MAXIMUM ECONOMIC SCALE THAT A REGION’S RESOURCE CAN

SUPPORT

THE LEVEL OF HUMAN ACTIVITIES,

POPULATION GROWTH AND

PHYSICAL DEVELOPMENT WHICH CAN BE

SUSTAINED WITHOUT CAUSING

IRREVERSIBLE DAMAGES

CONTEXT OF DIMINISHING RETURN

LAND AND HABITAT

WATER AND SANITATION (SEWAGE

AND WATER TREATMENT)

ROADS AND TRANSPORTATION

ENVIRONMENT AND AIR QUALITY

QU

ALI

TY O

F L

IFE

Theoretical Framework

P

ttw t1 t2

K3

K1 Q1

K2Q2

Q3

K1 – calculated population carrying capacity of a locality considering

limiting factor(s) (e.g., land or water)

K2 – degraded carrying capacity due to population overshoot of K1

K3 – enhanced carrying capacity due to technology development

and resource sustainability

t1 - critical year when K overshoots K1

t2 - year when K is degraded to K2

tw - year when P is approaching its K limits (warning and alert year)

and interventions are urgently needed (e.g., build dam, vertical

growth of green buildings, mass transport, etc.)

Q1 – quality of life at K1

Q2 – quality of life at K2

Q3 – quality of life at K3

THE MALTHUSIAN MODEL OF UCC FOR BAGUIO CITY

DATAPOPULATION

(SOURCE: PSA)LAND

(SOURCE: Estoque,2011)

DIMINISHING RETURNS

EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF THE

MODEL

PUBLIC SERVICES QUALITY OF LIFE ENVIRONMENT AND

ECOLOGY

Demographic Trends

Figure 3: Estimated Population Growth in Baguio

25,000 pop in 1918

398,552 pop as of 2018

Population linear Path CAPACITY

ESTIMATE OF BAGUIO’S CARRYING CAPACITY

2018

A

B

60:40

2010

Demographic Trends and the Malthusian

Principle: The Case of Baguio

Figure 1: Population Trend and Estimated Water Supply/Person/Day

Functional Relationship: Diminishing Water Water Supply/person/day

𝑊𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑟 = 20.729 + 1

𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 1.646

R = 0.813, sig..000***

URBAN CARRYING

CAPACITY OF BAGUIO CITYSUMMARY OF FINDINGS

UCC = f (ecology and environment,

urban facilities and services,

infrastructure and transport,

and public perception)

Most limiting factors

Limiting Factor Standard Used Population

Threshold

Urban road length 2.4km/1000pop 145,416

Urban road area 40m2/capita 169,500

Solid waste collection 0.246MT per person/year 216,666

Water supply 0.15m3/person/day 266,666

Liquid waste treatment

capacity

10,002 m3/day or 0.0289

m3/capita/ day 297,577

Forest cover 40m2/capita 326,075

Urban land for construction 100m2/capita 344,940

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Po

pu

lati

on

Year

Population Carrying Capacity of Urban Road Length: Baguio City

Projected Population Current Carrying Capacity of Urban Road Length

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Po

pu

lati

on

Year

Population Carrying Capacity of Urban Road Area: Baguio City

Projected Population Current Population Carrying Capacity of Urban Road Area

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Po

pu

lati

on

Year

Population Carrying Capacity of Solid Waste Collection: Baguio City

Projected Population

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Po

pu

lati

on

Year

Population Carrying Capacity of Water Supply: Baguio City

Projected Population Current Carrying Capacity of Water Supply

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Po

pu

lati

on

Year

Population Carrying Capacity of Liquid Waste Treatment: Baguio City

Projected Population

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Po

pu

lati

on

Year

Population Carrying Capacity of Forest Cover: Baguio City

Projected Population Current Population Carrying Capacity of Forest Cover

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Po

pu

lati

on

Year

Population Carrying Capacity of Land for Construction/Development: Baguio City

Projected Population

Tc

1. SUITABLE SLOPE

2. SUITABLE GEOLOGIC

FORMATION3. NON-FOREST AREA

4. NON-BUILT-UP AREA

5. NOT UNDER FAULT LINE

6. NOT A

ROAD

7. NOT UNDER PROTECTED

AREAS8. NOT VULNERABLE TO

LANDSLIDE

NET DEVELOPABLE AREAS

( 399.19 HECTARES)

1. BAGUIO ANCESTRAL

CLAIMS

2. PROCLAMATION LOTS

3. HERITAGE SITES

1. SUITABLE SLOPE

2. SUITABLE GEOLOGIC

FORMATION3. NON-FOREST AREA

4. NON-BUILT-UP AREA

5. NOT UNDER FAULT LINE

6. NOT A

ROAD

7. NOT UNDER PROTECTED

AREAS8. NOT VULNERABLE TO

LANDSLIDE

Sector

Standard or

benchmark

applied

Population

Carrying Capacity

of Resource x (Pt)

t = estimated

number of

years from

2015

Y = Actual

year

Green cover (forest

+ other green

vegetation)

80m2/capita*

350,458 +1 2016

Forest cover (forest

trees)

40 m2/capita*326,075 - 3 2012

Land for construction

or development

100m2/capita344,940 0 2015

Water supply 0.15m3/person/

Day 266,666 -13 2002

Urban road length 2.4km/1000pop 145,416 -30 1985

Urban road area 40m2/capita** 169,500 -27 1988

Parks 5m2/capita*** 413,320 +13 2028

Open space 20m2/capita*** 306,370 -7 2008

Solid waste

collected

0.246MT per

person/year216,666 -21 1994

Liquid waste

treatment capacity

0.0289

m3/capita/ day297,577 -8 2007

Critical UCC Indicators and Estimated Year of Reaching Threshold Population Carrying CapacityActual PGR (PSA): 1980-1990 = 4.41% 1990-1995 = 4.09% 1995-2000 = 2.31% 2000-2007 = 2.50% 2007-2010 = 1.98% 2010-2015 = 1.54%*Based on Consultant’s estimate in the absence of official estimates from DENR.

**Half of DILG standard of 80m2 per capita based on Consultant’s estimate considering the high value of DILG’s estimate which may be intended for provincial roads.

*** Based on Consultant’s estimate in the absence of official estimates from government agencies and Baguio City.

THE MALTHUSIAN

PREDICTION IS BECOMING

TRUE FOR BAGUIO CITY

POLICY IMPLICATION

The Malthusian has two major variables, population growth and fixed resources (i.e. water, public services, land). Both are policy variables.

Controlling population in the light of urbanization is not a short run solution to the current state of urban carrying capacity. The pull factors of the

urban development, will remain to be the major factor of migration.

POLICY IMPLICATION

POPULATION CONTROL

DO SOMETHING POLICY: To deter migration via the market mechanism can be a short and long run

policy option. Stricter policy on rents, land ownership, and standardizing housing

construction, can make the city expensive, hence deterring fast growth of migration, therefore

slower deterioration of resources.

POLICY IMPLICATION

DO NOTHING POLICY (Let it be, the self-correcting mechanism): Allow Baguio to reach population

threshold, results to low quality of life, out-migration, eventually reaches urban decay. Baguio

in the long run goes through a process of urban decay and in the longer run gentrification

preservation/rebuilding of what remains of the city.

POLICY IMPLICATION

EXPANSION OF FIXED RESOURCES

DO SOMETHING POLICY: Services

(1) Expansion of fixed resources, such as the creation of smart buildings that can house

increasing population with strict provisions for green building ideas such as solar power, water

catchment designs, and private septic and sewer systems to sustain good quality of life.

POLICY IMPLICATION

EXPANSION OF FIXED RESOURCES

DO SOMETHING POLICY: On Services

(2) Strengthen the creation of Circular Economies at the barangay level by converting waste into

inputs for upcycled or recycled products.

POLICY IMPLICATION

EXPANSION OF FIXED RESOURCES

DO SOMETHING POLICY: On Land

(3) Expand land resource through consolidated land mapping and land use plans among the

contiguous municipalities. Pursue the BLISTT plan.

POLICY IMPLICATION

EXPANSION OF FIXED RESOURCES

DO SOMETHING POLICY: On Land

(4) Create hubs of economic activity, i.e. techhubs, fintech, agritech, and creative hubs, in the

contiguous municipalities to disperse economic activities from Baguio City.

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