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ESN Analyser

Investment Research

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Produced & Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report)

ESN Analyser

Investment Research

14 November 2016

DEAR CLIENT,

INVITATION

“31st ESN EUROPEAN CONFERENCE”

London, 13 December 2016

Merchant Taylors’ Hall (30 Threadneedle Street, London, EC2R 8JB)

Companies available for one-to-one meetings Please consult the ESN website conference dedicated page

http://www.esnpartnership.eu/conferences/actual

ESN Top Picks

Roadshows

Corporate Events

Tactical Sector Views

ESN European Top Picks

ANIMA (IN)- SMALL & MID CAPS

CELLNEX TELECOM (IN)- SMALL & MID CAPS

EUSKALTEL (IN)- SMALL & MID CAPS

RECOMMENDATION CHANGES

UnipolSai downgraded to Neutral from Accumulate Conference call: some highlights – Downgrade from Accumulate to Neutral

Credem upgraded to Accumulate from Neutral Q3 16 results

STRATEGY NEWS

European Strategy News: ESN Fundamental Value Monitor

NEWS BY SECTOR

AUTOMOBILES & PARTS

Stern Groep (Buy) Further progress in divesting property; book profit 5m

BANKS

Banco Santander (Buy) Potential repurchase of 50% of its AM

Credem (Accumulate) Q3 16 results

Creval (Neutral) Partnership in factoring

Deutsche Pfandbriefbank (Buy) Adj. Q3 results in line, extra dividend more likely

UBI Banca (Buy) Feed-back from results’ presentation

http://www.esnpartnership.eu/conferences/actual

ESN Analyser

Investment Research

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FINANCIAL SERVICES

Anima (Buy) 3Q16 results in line with estimates

Ferratum (Buy) Model Update

TIP Tamburi Investment Partners (Buy) 9M 16 results

FOOD & BEVERAGE

Enervit (Accumulate) Q3 16 results in line with our estimates

La Doria (Neutral) 9M 16 results weak as expected

FOOD & DRUG RETAILERS

Sector News Portugal - Prices in the “Food and non-alcoholic beverages” segment in October 2016 (+0.45% YoY)

Marr (Accumulate) Q3 16 results preview

GENERAL INDUSTRIALS

Kendrion (Buy) Good progress in strategy and results are recovering

HEALTHCARE

Pihlajalinna (Buy) Promising signs of profitability

HOUSEHOLD GOODS

Fila (Buy) 9M 16 results: good top line growth

INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING

Biesse (Accumulate) Positive 9M results and FY 16 guidance update

Datalogic (Accumulate) 9M 16 results: profitability slightly higher than expected

Emak (Accumulate) 9M 16 results

Prima Industrie (Buy) Q3: good results, improving profitability

INSURANCE

Cattolica Assicurazioni (Neutral) 3Q16 better than expected – 2017 targets revised down

UnipolSai (Neutral) Conference call: some highlights – Downgrade from Accumulate to Neutral

MATERIALS, CONSTRUCTION & INFRASTRUCTURE

Atlantia (Accumulate) Sound results in Q3

Heijmans (Buy) CFO to leave early next year

Lehto (Accumulate) Guidance upgrade, target price to EUR 10

Sacyr (Buy) Meeting held with the company

SIAS (Buy) Q3 results good and better than expected

Trevi (Accumulate) Oil & gas division expected to hit Q3 results

MEDIA

Sector News ESN Fundamental Value Monitor

Lagardère (Accumulate) Post Q3 revenues: confirmation of FY guidance

OIL SERVICES

Technip (Buy) Confirmation of the acceleration in draft-design studies

PERSONAL GOODS

Salvatore Ferragamo (Accumulate) Ferragamo: 9M 16 results preview

ESN Analyser

Investment Research

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REAL ESTATE

ADLER Real Estate (Buy) Q3 results in line with expectations on FFO I level

Hispania Activos Inmobiliarios (Buy) 9m’16 results: good operating momentum

SOFTWARE & COMPUTER SERVICES

Exprivia (Accumulate) 9m 2016 Post: back to growth with ACS, higher debt

TomTom (Buy) Technology Day feedback – a positive afternoon

SUPPORT SERVICES

Cellnex Telecom (Buy) Excessive and unjustified fall

Edenred (Buy) Roadshow feedback: compelling growth prospects

Openjobmetis (Buy) Positive 9M 16 results

TELECOMMUNICATIONS

Sector News Altice’s CFO argues that sport content costs will impact consumer prices in Portugal

Euskaltel (Buy) Investments increasing…

Telecom Italia (Accumulate) Conversion of EUR 1.3bn bond

UTILITIES

Snam (Accumulate) We expect a declining set of figures in 9M 2016 Y/Y

ESN Top Picks

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Blue Chips Top Picks

Compa ny Count r y S e c t or I de a Ra t i ngP r i c e a s of

13 / 11/ 2 0 16

Ta r ge t

P r i c e

Upsi de /

Downsi deEnt r y da t e

Ent r y

pr i c e

Ent r y

pr i c e

( D i v .

Adj )

Tot a l

Re t ur n

Ent r y To

Da t e

Re l . Cml . d

pe r f . v s Eur o

S t ox x

AM ADEUS Spain Sof t ware & Comput er Services Long Buy 40.31 50.70 26% 18/ 08/ 2016 41.96 41.96 - 3 . 9 % -4.5%

CI E FI N . R I CHEM ONT Swit zerland Personal Goods Long Buy 66.15 76.00 15% 17/ 10/ 2016 66.30 66.30 - 0 . 2 % 0.3%

I NDI TEX Spain General Ret ailers Long Accumulat e 30.49 36.10 18% 18/ 08/ 2016 30.93 30.33 0 . 5 % -0.1%

KP N TELECOM Net herlands Telecommunicat ions Long Buy 2.69 3.55 32% 20/ 09/ 2016 2.82 2.82 - 4 . 8 % -5.6%

P OS TE I TALI ANE It aly Banks Long Accumulat e 5.97 7.90 32% 03/ 11/ 2016 5.96 5.96 0 . 3 % -0.7%

RELX Net herlands Media Long Accumulat e 14.18 16.75 18% 27/ 10/ 2016 15.14 15.14 - 6 . 3 % -4.3%

S TORA ENS O Finland Basic Resources Long Accumulat e 8.72 9.30 7% 17/ 10/ 2016 8.16 8.16 6 . 9 % 7.4%

TECHNI P France Oil Services Long Buy 62.93 67.00 6% 18/ 102016 58.60 58.60 7 . 4 % 7.5%

source: ESN Members’ estimates

M/S Caps Top Picks

Compa ny Count r y S e c t or I de a Ra t i ngP r i c e a s of

13 / 11/ 2 0 16

Ta r ge t

P r i c e

Upsi de /

Downsi deEnt r y da t e

Ent r y

pr i c e

Ent r y pr i c e

( D i v . Adj )

Tot a l

Re t ur n

Ent r y To

Da t e

Re l . Cml . d

pe r f . v s

Eur o

S t ox x

ACERI NOX Spain Basic Resources Long Buy 11.85 14.00 18% 18/ 08/ 2016 11.71 11.71 1. 2 % 0.6%

ALTRAN France Sof t ware & Comput er Services Long Buy 12.28 15.00 22% 17/ 10/ 2016 13.20 13.20 - 7 . 0 % -6.4%

ANI M A It aly Financial Services Long Buy 4.89 5.80 19% 11/ 11/ 2016 4.13 4.13 18 . 3 % 18.8%

CAF Spain Indust r ial Transport at ion Long Accumulat e 344.80 390.00 13% 18/ 08/ 2016 342.80 342.80 0 . 6 % -0.0%

CELLNEX TELECOM Spain Support Services Long Buy 12.77 19.60 53% 11/ 11/ 2016 13.03 13.03 - 2 . 0 % -2.8%

DEUTS CHE P FANDBRI EFBANK Germany Banks Long Buy 9.73 12.30 26% 22/ 08/ 2016 8.10 8.10 2 0 . 1% 19.4%

EUS KALTEL Spain Telecommunicat ions Long Buy 8.43 12.00 42% 11/ 11/ 2016 8.62 8.62 - 2 . 2 % -4.1%

FOLLI FOLLI E GROUP Greece General Ret ailers Long Buy 20.64 27.70 34% 07/ 11/ 2016 20.91 20.91 - 1. 3 % -3.2%

FORFARM ERS Net herlands Food & Beverage Long Buy 6.93 8.30 20% 28/ 09/ 2016 6.48 6.48 7 . 0 % 6.3%

FUGRO Net herlands Oil Services Long Buy 15.26 19.00 25% 20/ 10/ 2016 15.56 15.56 - 1. 9 % -0.2%

J UM BO Greece General Ret ailers Long Buy 11.77 14.99 27% 21/ 10/ 2016 12.62 12.35 - 4 . 7 % -2.6%

NH HOTEL GROUP Spain Travel & Leisure Long Buy 3.90 6.80 74% 18/ 08/ 2016 4.00 4.00 - 2 . 5 % -3.1%

NOS Port ugal Telecommunicat ions Long Buy 5.62 7.00 25% 17/ 10/ 2016 5.89 5.89 - 4 . 6 % -4.0%

RI B S OFTWARE Germany Sof t ware & Comput er Services Long Buy 13.67 14.00 2% 20/ 06/ 2016 8.29 8.29 6 4 . 9 % 58.8%

TECHNOGYM It aly Personal Goods Long Buy 3.80 4.95 30% 15/ 06/ 2016 3.78 3.78 0 . 6 % -7.0%

THE NAVI GATOR COM P ANY Port ugal Basic Resources Long Buy 2.63 4.60 75% 22/ 06/ 2016 2.72 2.72 - 3 . 3 % -5.4%

YOOX NET- A- P ORTER It aly General Ret ailers Long Buy 24.70 31.30 27% 17/ 10/ 2016 27.82 27.82 - 11. 2 % -10.6%

source: ESN Members’ estimates

This selection of stocks is not intended to provide a recommended portfolio; therefore there is no point in comparing its performance with any benchmark. The performance of each stock has to be considered independently. Risk factors are taken into account when selecting individual stocks but the risk profile of the selection as a whole is not considered. The approach used to select each investment idea is opportunistic with an absolute return target.

ESN Top Picks

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SMALL & MID CAPS (IN)

ANIMA

The upside will be underpinned by the opportunities for growth arising from the strategic partner networks and the success of the agreement with Poste (net inflows of c. EUR 15bn by 2020), which could also be able to offset the loss of Montepaschi assets (we estimate c. EUR 23bn will be completely lost in 7 years starting from 2019). The need of Italian wealth to obtain a decent yield in the present low rates environment can determine further growth in the retail segment. Some opportunities are also likely to arise from the Popolari bank M&As in 2017 and 2018, which could speed up some aggregations of appealing asset management companies, (first of all with Aletti Gestielle and/or Arca), fostering the economies of scale.. Mr Carreri, Anima’s CEO, confirmed to be interested in combining with Aletti Gestielle (Banco Popolare’s asset management company). The non-binding offer presented together with Poste and CDP for Pioneer could be the trigger in the short term. We also underline that the role of asset management in banks’ profitability remains strategic in the medium term as long as interest rates remain low. In 2017 Poste could contribute its asset management company (BancoPosta Fondi SGR) to ANIMA Holding, trying to increase the stake in ANIMA from the current 10.32% up to a maximum of 24.9% of ANIMA voting rights. This operation will allow as of the beginning, to count on over EUR 147bn in assets (as of 30 September 2016) and is subject to Anima’s shareholder meeting approval. By applying the FCFE method we obtained a TP of EUR 5.8 per share. We stick to buy rating.

Despite a pure peer comparison could be misleading, due to Anima’s peculiar business model, in terms of multiple P/E 2016 and 2017 Anima is trading with a discount of c. 21% and 18% respectively vs its main European peers (Man, Henderson, Schroders, Vontobel). In terms of market capitalization on total assets, Anima is trading around 1.9% and 1.8% for 2016 and 2017, compared to 2.3% and 2.2% respectively of the same European peers.

ESN Top Picks

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CELLNEX TELECOM

TSR growths lean on the organic rise in PoPs (above forecasts in last results 9M'16) and the change in the consolidation perimeter (Galata TEF’s towers Protelindo Commscon Bouygues Shere).Our recommendation leans on the following aspects: visibility and recurrent cash flows (OpCF’17e yield of 6.4%), deleveraging capacity, neutrality (unlike other peers: Telxius, Inwit and EI Towers), long term anchor contracts with clients (Wind, Telefonica, Yoigo, KPN, Bouygues), diversified pipeline, operating leverage and potential to widen margins, structural strength in core business and nitche sectors (small cells, backhauling), very competitive cost of debt with over 60% at a fixed rate and possible rationalisation of the network in Europe.

We don't think yesterday drop of the CLNX' share price (-6.2%) was justified. It has been an overreaction due to the potencial higher interest rates in US that could penalize American peers as Towers/SBA Comm./Crown Castle.Acquisitions accretive as from Day 1. The recent M&A (4 acquisitions since its listing) implies increasing FCRA from EUR27m annual base considering incurred financial costs. The average EBITDA mg reached 77% and cash transformation 70%. Although we expect debt to reach 4.5x at year-end, the increasing cash generation and deleveraging capacity makes the additional debt manageable.

Guidance reiterated, bearing in mind the consolidation of the recent M&A move. Including: 1) Similar adjusted EBITDA as in 3Q’16 for the rest of the year; 2) maintenance capex representing 3% total revenues; 3) interests paid according to the final debt structure (majority paid in 3Q’16); 4) taxes in lien with 2015 despite the perimeter changes; 5) leveraged recurrent cash flow per share with >20% growth Y/Y; 6) organic growth of POPs around 3%; and 7) WC tending towards neutral.

TP EUR19.6/sh. = 70% DCF (EUR19.4/sh.) 30% M&A hypotesis considering potential synergies. Lasts M&A movements

included in our estimates.

ESN Top Picks

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EUSKALTEL

Euskaltel’s shares have fallen -25.6% YTD, however, in our view the stock will consolidate the positive trend that has begun. Although, in the medium term EKT’s market share will erode (mainly in fixed BB and pay-tv; on the contrary in mobile due to the positive effects from convergence) while operators such as VOD and ORA accelerate their FTTH deployments, there are enough short/medium term drivers to back our recommendation change from Neutral to Buy and fair value from EUR9 to EUR12/share.

- National/International roadshow to introduce the new CEO, Mr. F. Arteche.

- The upcoming 4Q’16 results will reflect synergies from the integration with R. These are evolving well and EKT anticipated more ambitious synergies with R Cable during the results CC (proceeding from uniting central services, administration homogenising investments, e-billing and IT) even despite the non-existence geographic over-lapping and not uniting the brand.

- News on attractive dividends: EKT mentioned its intention to set a 90% pay-out on 2016 results. The high cash generation will permit less than 4.5x net debt/EBITDA in 2017 (excluding dividends).

We have revised our estimates up mainly in revenues and operating leverage due to the higher synergies in the integration with R. We have also reduced capex to 14/15% 2019-20e, increasing the tax rate (32%) and beta from 0.8 to 0.9 due to the lower management risk. TP EUR12/sh.

Roadshows

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SUBJECT LOCATION EVENT DATE

Repsol Vienna Cross-country Company Roadshow 21/11/2016

Mapfre Lisboa Cross-country Company Roadshow 22/11/2016

Repsol Frankfurt Cross-country Company Roadshow 22/11/2016

AKKA TECHNOLOGIES Geneva Cross-country Company Roadshow 24/11/2016

Corporate Events

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Corporate Events today

Source: Precise

CompanyBloomberg

codeDate Event Type Description

ACS ACS SM 14/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

ADLER REAL ESTATE ADL GY 14/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

AEROPORTS DE PARIS ADP FP 14/11/16 Sales October Traffic Figures

BOLLORE BOL FP 14/11/16 Trading Update Q3 2016 Sales

CORP. FINANCIERA ALBA ALB SM 14/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

DEUTSCHE EUROSHOP DEQ GR 14/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

DEUTSCHE PFANDBRIEFBANKPBB GR 14/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

HISPANIA ACTIVOS INMOBILIARIOSHIS SM 14/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Earnings conference call {English}

IMA IMA IM 14/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

INDRA SISTEMAS IDR SM 14/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Earnings conference call / Webcast

IDR SM 14/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

MARR MARR IM 14/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

MAX AUTOMATION AG MXH GR 14/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

OBRASCON HUARTE LAIN OHL SM 14/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

OHL SM 14/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Earnings conference call / Webcast

SALVATORE FERRAGAMO SFER IM 14/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Earnings conference call / Webcast

SFER IM 14/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

SMT SCHARF AG S4A GY 14/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

SNAM SRG IM 14/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

SONAE INDUSTRIA SONI PL 14/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Earnings conference call

SURTECO SUR GR 14/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

TELEPERFORMANCE RCF FP 14/11/16 Trading Update Q3 2016 Sales conference call

RCF FP 14/11/16 Trading Update Q3 2016 Sales

TREVI TFI IM 14/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

VISCOM V6C GR 14/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Results

V6C GR 14/11/16 Results Q3 2016 Earnings conference call

ESN Tactical Sector Views

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Tactical Sector Allocation Matrix July 2016

SectorCurrent Tactical

ViewAction

Previous

Tactical View

Stoxx 600

Weighting

LATEST REVIEW

DATE

Automobiles & Parts + upgrade = 3% Jul-16

Banks - - 10% Jul-16

Basic Resources = = 2% Jul-16

Chemicals = = 5% Jul-16

Construction & Materials + + 3% Jul-16

Financial Services - dow ngrade = 2% Jul-16

Food & Beverage + + 7% Jul-16

Healthcare + upgrade = 14% Jul-16

Industrial Good & Services + upgrade = 11% Jul-16

Insurance - dow ngrade + 6% Jul-16

Media - dow ngrade = 3% Jul-16

Oil & Gas = = 5% Jul-16

Personal & Household Goods + + 9% Jul-16

Real Estate + upgrade - 2% Jul-16

Retail - dow ngrade = 3% Jul-16

Technology + upgrade = 4% Jul-16

Telecommunications = dow ngrade + 5% Jul-16

Travel & Leisure + + 2% Jul-16

Utilities + upgrade - 4% Jul-16

Legend: + (Overw eight); =/+ (Slightly Overw eight); = (Market Weight); =/- (Slightly Underw eight); - (Underw eight);

Note: The tactical sector view is the shorter term trading view of the ESN strategy team and it can vary from the longer term

fundamental view of the relevant ESN sector analyst team

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Strategy Update Summary

Analyser

$SECTOR$

European Strategy News: ESN Fundamental Value Monitor

ESN Fundamental Value Monitor

Conventional valuation measures for equity markets can be deceptive whenever earnings are significantly at

variance to their long term trend lines and/or whenever real interest rates / bond yields are significantly at variance

to their long run equilibrium levels. We see equity markets as being priced at fair value for the long run when the trend

line level of earnings is yielding 6%, consistent with a mean reverting required real total return of 6% per annum (which

decomposes into a mean reverting required real risk-free return of 3% plus a required equity risk premium of 3%).

Since the last cycle trough in 2009, cyclical expansion has pushed US earnings back above the long run trend line

(notwithstanding the subsidence over recent quarters which now appears to be reversing). In the aftermath of the Euro-

zone debt crisis, European earnings have struggled to recover cyclically and languish well below trend. Meanwhile, real

interest rates and bond yields remain at historically low levels, way below our assumptions for long run equilibrium. There

is some recent evidence of tentative upward cyclical pressure in the US albeit less so in Europe and elsewhere.

Looking beyond immediate cyclical forces, more important structural forces will continue to determine the propensity for

earnings and real interest rates / bond yields to reside above or below their long term trend/equilibrium levels over the

medium to longer term. We see excess global labour supply (stemming from globalisation and closely linked to excess

global savings) as the common factor linking the tendency over recent years/decades towards structurally low interest rates

and structurally high corporate profitability. We expect any structural mean reversion of profitability and interest rates to be

slow and tentative (albeit that recent anti-globalisation political drift in the US and Europe warrants caution against

complacency), suggesting that likely continuation of the current global economic expansion cycle could sustain earnings at

or above trend levels in a relatively benign structural interest rate environment for a time yet. This suggests that, over the

medium term, conventional valuation models (concentrating on current levels for earnings and interest rates) could be

making equity markets look cheaper than will ultimately prove to have been sustainable over the longer term.

Hypothetically assuming immediate mean reversion of both earnings and bond yields to their long run trend levels,

prospective long run equity risk premiums across the five main European markets (UK, France, Germany, Spain

and Italy) are currently averaging at 4.08% (as per the index data we use). This is above the long run mean-

reverting required level of 3% per annum and consistent with expected long run real total returns averaging 7.08%

compared to the required level of 6.0%. These figures are consistent with the main European markets having

potential upsides to fair value of about 18% on average. On the same mean-reversionary assumption, the prospective

risk premium for the US equity market is particularly inadequate at 1.03%, consistent with a prospective long run real total

return of 4.03% and implying downside to fundamental fair value of about 33%.

A significant caveat is that the index data shows trend growth rates in earnings for some of the main European

markets somewhat higher than might be considered sustainable/credible, implying the potential for progressive

overstatement of the fair value level of the market from some point in the past or future. However, we estimate that

the five main European markets on average would still be priced to deliver the long run required real total return of

6% if the trend earnings level was as low as 85% of the currently indicated level on the charts. So there is a margin

of comfort.

We conclude that European equities are at least modestly undervalued for the long run. Our confidence in the US earnings and index data inclines us to the trend earnings based indication that this market is quite significantly overvalued for the longer term, although it could continue to look reasonably attractive on conventional valuation measures (comparing the current earnings yield with current real interest rates/bond yields) for some time yet. Indeed, European equity markets could continue to look all the more attractive on such conventional measures for quite some time.

Authors: Bernard McAlinden, ESN, +353 87 241 4826, [email protected]

Kate O’Dowd, ESN, +39.02.4344.4447, [email protected]

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Stern Groep

Netherlands/Automobiles & Parts Analyser

AUTOMOBILES & PARTS

Stern Groep (Buy) ESN Fundamental Value Monitor Buy

18.50

closing price as of 10/11/2016

22.00

Target Price unchanged

Recommendation unchanged

Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg ARTN.AS/STRN NA

Market capitalisation (EURm) 110

Current N° of shares (m) 6

Free float 26%

Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 5

Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 64

Price high 12 mth (EUR) 19.89

Price low 12 mth (EUR) 15.25

Abs. perf. 1 mth -3.90%


Abs. perf. 12 mth 18.21%

Key financials (EUR) 12/15 12/16e 12/17e

Sales (m) 1,095 1,071 1,107

EBITDA (m) 29 34 39

EBITDA margin 2.7% 3.1% 3.5%

EBIT (m) 19 23 28

EBIT margin 1.7% 2.1% 2.5%

Net Profit (adj.)(m) 12 15 19

ROCE 3.2% 4.2% 5.0%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 296 265 260

Net Debt/Equity 2.0 1.7 1.5

Debt/EBITDA 10.2 7.9 6.6

Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 5.8 7.3 8.3

EV/Sales 0.3 0.3 0.3

EV/EBITDA 12.5 9.9 8.4

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 12.5 9.9 8.4

EV/EBIT 19.3 14.5 11.7

P/E (adj.) 8.9 7.2 5.8

P/BV 0.7 0.7 0.6

OpFCF yield -12.4% 34.4% 11.3%

Dividend yield 0.0% 5.5% 7.0%

EPS (adj.) 2.03 2.56 3.22

BVPS 26.09 28.01 29.18

DPS 0.00 1.02 1.29

Further progress in divesting property; book profit 5m

The facts: Last Friday, Stern reported the sale of 2 properties with a book profit

of EUR 5m and one intended transaction to be settled in 1Q17. Stern will report

3Q16 results Tuesday after the close of financial markets.

Our analysis: Last Friday, Stern reported a book profit of EUR 5m on the sale of

2 properties. We expect that on the head office alone, acquired in January this

year, Stern will make a book profit of ~EUR 4m (proceeds will be ~EUR 9m). In

return, Stern is leasing back the office for 12 years at market conditions. The

transaction is set to close later this year.

The sale of another property in Amsterdam, let to third parties, has been settled in

full now. We expect proceeds of ~EUR 3m and a book profit of EUR 1m on this

property.

Furthermore, another letter of intent has been signed with respect to another

property in Amsterdam let to third parties. After a technical due diligence

investigation that is still to be carried out, this transaction is expected to be

completed in Q1-2017. There will also be a book profit on this transaction.

With the newly announced transactions, Stern is also making good progress in

monetizing its property assets in 2016 as well. In 2015, Stern already announced

a sale and lease back transaction of EUR 57m. This made that properties on the

balance sheet reduced to EUR 52m from EUR 107m (book profit on that

transaction ~EUR 2m). The transactions announced Friday will decrease the

property assets by some EUR 3m (the head office was only acquired in 2016) to

below EUR 50m.

We see these transactions as very favourable as: 1) the proceeds in combination

with the book profit says that the book value of real estate on the balance sheet is

a good indicator of the realistic value, which says something about the robustness

of the book value of equity (~EUR 151m), compared to market value (EUR 110m)

2) it provides more financial room to grow the capital intensive lease business or

pre finance low tax addition cars for registration this year. We do not expect that

debt reduction will be the first use. 3) there is potential to sell more real estate

and another letter of intent is already signed

Conclusion & Action: The sale and (in some cases) lease back transactions are

a great means to generate cash in order to realize growth potential especially in

the capital intensive leasing activities, but also in the dealer activities (more

opportunity driven). Furthermore it unlocks part of Stern’s apparent

undervaluation and as such we welcome these transactions. We will adjust our

estimates for the book profit on the sold real estate after the 3Q results and our

EUR 23m number on FY16 EBIT now looks conservative. Although car sales are

not developing very favourable at the moment, we believe that profitability at

Stern is developing well and stick to our Buy rating and price target of EUR 22.

3Q results tomorrow after close of financial markets.

13

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15

16

17

18

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20

Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16

vvdsvdvsdy

STERN GROEP Amsterdam Small Cap Index (Rebased)Source: Factset Shareholders: NPM Capital 27%; HH vd Kwast 19%;

Todlin NV 7%; F.van Delft 10%; Otus 4%;

Maga Microcap fund 3%; Invesco 5%; Analyst(s):

Edwin de Jong, NIBC Markets N.V.

[email protected]

+312 0 5508569

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Banco Santander

Spain/Banks Analyser

BANKS

Banco Santander (Buy) Further progress in divesting property; book profit 5m

Potential repurchase of 50% of its AM

The facts: Santander is apparently preparing the repurchase of 50% of its asset

manager (Santander AM) and a partial sale of Allfunds Bank.

Our analysis: Banco Santander is apparently preparing the repurchase of the

50% of its asset manager “Santander AM”, that in 2013 was sold to Warburg

Pincus and General Atlantic (the two American funds entered in Santander AM’s

capital investing just over EUR1.000m). This operation has its origin in the

recently failed merger between Santander AM and Pioneer Funds AM.

The owners of 50% Santander AM (Warburg Pincus and General Atlantic) have a

commitment of permanence that expires in 2018, but the broken agreement

between Santander with UniCredit to merge Santander AM with Pioneer AM has

provoked the reconsideration of the agreement (the Italian bank has received four

offers from companies interested in Pioneer AM).

According to the press, Santander’s asset manager would be valued at

EUR1.700m, resulting from a 16x P/EBITDA (EUR107m). According to Reuters,

the value could be up to EUR2.000m. On the other hand and according to the

failed agreement with Pioneer, Santander’s asset manager would have a value of

about EUR2.600m. Finally, Reuters also mentions “UniCredit seeks to raise

around 3 billion euros from the sale of Pioneer…”, company with EUR220m

assets under management, similar to the EUR215bn of Santander AM figure.

The companies that have shown interest in Santander’s operation would be,

according to the press: Bain Capital, Advent, Cinven, Permira, BC Partners and

Hellman & Friedman.

Conclusion: it is likely that with the potential sale of 50% Santander AM the

Spanish bank could obtain some capital gains, but less than that expected with the

failed operation with Pioneer. Recommendation reiterated.

Analyst(s):

Javier Bernat, GVC Gaesco Beka

[email protected]

+34 91 436 7816

Buy

4.25


5.35



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg SAN.MC/SAN SM

Market capitalisation (EURm) 61,347

Current N° of shares (m) 14,434

Free float 99%

Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 100,286

Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 543,051







Total Revenue (m) 45,272 43,484 44,884

Pre-Provision Profit (PPP) (m) 23,702 22,443 23,199

Operating profit (OP) 13,594 13,184 13,858

Earnings Before Tax (m) 10,339 11,000 11,721

Net Profit (adj.) (m) 6,566 6,110 6,784

Shareholders Equity (m) 98,753 102,485 106,827

Tangible BV (m) 64,209 66,463 68,717

RWA (m) 583,893 580,476 590,065

ROTE 10.5% 9.4% 10.0%

Total Capital Ratio (B3) 13.1% 13.8% 14.3%

Cost/Income 47.6% 48.4% 48.3%

NPL ratio (gross) 4.8% 4.4% 4.1%

P/PPP 2.7 2.7 2.6

P/E (adj.) 9.8 10.0 9.0

P/BV 0.7 0.6 0.6

P/TBV 1.0 0.9 0.9

Dividend Yield 3.5% 3.9% 4.3%

PPPPS 1.68 1.55 1.61

EPS (adj.) 0.46 0.42 0.47

BVPS 6.98 7.10 7.40

TBVPS 4.54 4.60 4.76

DPS 0.15 0.17 0.18

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5


vvdsvdvsdy

BANCO SANTANDER Stoxx Banks (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Botin family 0.64%;

of 60


Credem

Italy/Banks Analyser

BANKS

Credem (Accumulate) Potential repurchase of 50% of its AM

Q3 16 results

The facts: Credem published Q3 16 results last Friday after market closing.

Our analysis: Credem closed Q3 16 with a net profit up 6.5% Y/Y to EUR 31m

vs. our flattish expectation, thanks to a slightly better operating performance.

The CET1 ratio improved 10bps Q/Q to 13.5% phased-in and 12.3% fully-loaded.

(EUR m) Q3 16A Q3 16E Differ. Q3 15A Y/Y Q2 16A Q/Q

Revenues 258 255 1.2% 248 4.0% 258 0.0%

Operating

costs -183 -182 0.5% -172 6.4% -193 -5.2%

GOP 75 73 2.7% 76 -1.3% 65 15.4%

Loan

provisions -16 -16 0.0% -18 -11.1% -21 -23.8%

Net Profit 33 31 6.5% 31 6.5% 24 37.5%

Total revenues increased 4% Y/Y to EUR 258m or EUR 3m more than expected,

as net commissions were almost flat Y/Y at EUR 119m vs. our 117.5m estimate

and the insurance income jumped from EUR 8.5m in Q3 15 to EUR 14.5m vs. our

12m forecast. The NII was up a mere 1% Y/Y to EUR 112m as anticipated, while

the trading income was a limited EUR 8m as expected.

Operating costs grew 6.5% Y/Y to EUR 183m as anticipated, fuelled by

continuous hiring and investments, leading to a gross operating profit (GOP)

down 1.3% Y/Y to EUR 75m or EUR 2m more than expected, with a C/I ratio of

70.9%.

Loan impairments were 11% lower Y/Y to EUR 16m as estimated, with a very low

cost of credit risk of less than 30bps thanks to an outstanding credit quality

confirmed by a net NPL ratio of 1.65%.

Finally, the bank booked EUR 9.5m provisions for risks and charges related the

annual contribution to the Deposit Guarantee Scheme.

Conclusion & Action: After a long underperformance, the stock has now a more

adequate valuation of 0.7x 17e P/TBV for 7% 17e ROTE. We upgrade the stock

from Neutral to Accumulate with an unchanged EUR 6.2 target price.

Analyst(s):

Luigi Tramontana, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4239

Accumulate

5.28


6.20


from Neutral

Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg EMBI.MI/CE IM



Free float 23%









Total Revenue (m) 1,127 1,072 1,129

Pre-Provision Profit (PPP) (m) 385 314 354

Operating profit (OP) 271 245 263

Earnings Before Tax (m) 239 195 248

Net Profit (adj.) (m) 189 148 179


Tangible BV (m) 2,192 2,259 2,378

RWA (m) 13,251 14,061 14,803

ROTE 7.8% 5.9% 6.9%


Cost/Income 64.3% 70.0% 67.9%


P/PPP 5.9 5.6 5.0

P/E (adj.) 12.1 11.9 9.8

P/BV 1.0 0.8 0.7

P/TBV 1.0 0.8 0.7


PPPPS 1.16 0.94 1.07

EPS (adj.) 0.57 0.44 0.54

BVPS 6.60 6.80 7.16

TBVPS 6.60 6.80 7.16

DPS 0.15 0.15 0.20

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

ott 15 nov 15 dic 15 gen 16 feb 16 mar 16 apr 16 mag 16 giu 16 lug 16 ago 16 set 16 ott 16 nov 16

vvdsvdvsdy

CREDEM Stoxx Banks (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Credemholding 77%;

of 60


Creval


BANKS

Creval (Neutral) Q3 16 results

Partnership in factoring

The facts: Creval announced last Friday a strategic partnership in the factoring

activity.

Our analysis: Creval announced an agreement to acquire a 37% stake in

Generalfinance from GGH, which will retain the remainder 63%, with an overall

investment of EUR 9m.

Generalfinance (GF) is an independent financial intermediary operating in the

field of loans to businesses, with a focus on factoring of trade receivables and an

expected turnover of approx. EUR 280m for FY16.

The transaction will allow Creval to support direct operations in the factoring

business, making use of technical/operational skills on GF and to strengthen the

offer for the SMEs, with positive effects in terms of profitability, in line with targets

of the recently-announced Action Plan.

A development plan of GF was defined with the target to increase the turnover by

almost 80% to EUR 500m in FY19, also thanks to the distribution through

Creval’s branch network.

Conclusion & Action: A positive strategic agreement to complete Creval’s

product offering, but with limited impact on the group’s fundamentals. Neutral

reiterated.

Analyst(s):


[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4239

Neutral

0.39


0.40



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg PCVI.MI/CVAL IM



Free float 100%









Total Revenue (m) 855 723 759


Operating profit (OP) -156 -360 25

Earnings Before Tax (m) 24 -395 -215

Net Profit (adj.) (m) -160 -261 12


Tangible BV (m) 2,078 1,800 1,656

RWA (m) 15,479 15,800 14,371

ROTE -8.1% -13.5% 0.7%


Cost/Income 64.4% 71.2% 66.2%

NPL ratio (gross) 13.1% 13.0% 13.8%

P/PPP 4.2 2.1 1.7

P/E (adj.) nm nm 35.7

P/BV 0.6 0.2 0.2

P/TBV 0.6 0.2 0.3


PPPPS 0.26 0.18 0.23

EPS (adj.) -0.14 -0.24 0.01

BVPS 1.97 1.72 1.59

TBVPS 1.87 1.62 1.49

DPS 0.03 0.00 0.00

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20


vvdsvdvsdy

CREVAL Stoxx Banks (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders:

of 60


Deutsche Pfandbriefbank

Germany/Banks Analyser

BANKS

Deutsche Pfandbriefbank (Buy) Partnership in factoring

Adj. Q3 results in line, extra dividend more likely

The facts: Friday evening Dt Pfandbriefbank reported Q3 results which were

better than expected both on an adjusted and a non-adjusted pretax profit level.

Pretax profit tripled yoy to EUR 159m (equine: EUR 141m) due to the positive

one-off resulting from Heta as PBB booked lower provisions than expected (delta

of EUR 18m). On an adjusted level pretax profit stood at EUR 42m which was

slightly above our forecast of EUR 41m; positively, NII was with EUR 97m above

our forecast of EUR 94m. Negatively, costs and risk provisions were above our

forecasts. For 2016e PBB is targeting an adjusted operating profit of EUR 170m

(equinet: EUR 186m), for 2017 an operating profit of between EUR 150m and

EUR 170m (equinet: EUR 185m, consensus: EUR 168m). Most importantly PBB

said that it was contemplating an extra dividend from the Heta one-off for 2016.

Our analysis: New business amounted to EUR 2bn in Q3 ’15 which was down by

31% yoy but slightly up by 10% qoq. New business margin in Real Estate Finance

remained in line with H1 at 170 basis points. Negatively, pbb is forecasting a tax

rate of 35% for 2016 which is well above previous guidance of 17% - this will have

a negative impact on the distributable income, i.e. our dividend forecast.

Conclusion & Action: While Q3 results are somewhat mixed and the outlook is

below our expectation but in line with consensus, the fact that PBB is

contemplating an extra dividend from the Heta one-off is clearly positive news.

Hence, we reiterate our Buy recommendation with a target price of EUR 12.30.

While pbb is clearly not a growth story, we like the shares as they offer a high

normal dividend yield of 6% for 2016 which should be even at 9% if including an

expected extra dividend related to Heta. The higher guided tax rate may however

somewhat reduce our dividend expectation. Additionally PBB is strongly

capitalized (CT1 B3 FL: 19%) and has a high asset quality (NPL ratio of 1.3%)

while trading at 2017e P/B of 0.4x.

Analyst(s):

Philipp Häßler, CFA, equinet Bank

[email protected]

+49 69 58997 414

Buy

9.73


12.30



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg PBBG.DE/PBB GR



Free float 80%













Net Profit (adj.) (m) 230 154 155


Tangible BV (m) 2,731 2,746 2,805

RWA (m) 13,402 13,804 14,218

ROTE 7.4% 5.6% 5.6%


Cost/Income 49.2% 52.5% 50.3%


P/PPP 7.0 6.9 6.2

P/E (adj.) 6.5 8.5 8.5

P/BV 0.6 0.5 0.5

P/TBV 0.6 0.5 0.5


PPPPS 1.59 1.42 1.56

EPS (adj.) 1.71 1.15 1.15

BVPS 20.31 20.42 20.86

TBVPS 20.31 20.42 20.86

DPS 0.43 0.57 0.58

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5


vvdsvdvsdy

DEUTSCHE PFANDBRIEFBANK Stoxx Banks (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Federal Republic of Germany 20%;

Deutsche Pfandbriefbank - Preview Q3 2016

EUR m Q3 '16 Q3 '16e Q3 '15 yoy Consensus delta

Revenues 214 185 98 118% 214 -14%

of which NII 97 94 95 2% 94 0%

Expenses 53 50 52 2% 52 -4%

CIR 24.8% 27.0% 53.1% -2829 BP na na

Risk provis. -3 -6 -3 na 2 na

EBT 159 141 53 200% 154 -8%

Net income 121 139 53 128% 116 20%

Sources: PBB, equinet Research

of 60


UBI Banca


BANKS

UBI Banca (Buy) Adj. Q3 results in line, extra dividend more likely

Feed-back from results’ presentation

The facts: UBI Banca held a conference call last Friday to present Q3 16 results.

Our analysis: Main highlights of the presentation were the following:

- Funding remix: continued growth in non -remunerated sight deposits and

shift away from retail bonds with focus on AUM and bancassurnace confirmed,

with significant growth (+8.8% in 9M and +3.8% in Q3 alone) and market share

recorded (6.3% at national level). Additionally, remix from bond (55%) to

equity/balanced/flexible products (45%) underway, with positive effects on

profitability.

- Lending remix: EUR 1.9bn quarterly decrease in loan book mainly due

to cut in repos with CCG (EUR -0.5bn) and cleanup of EVA-negative short-term

loans (EUR -1.1bn), to sustain ongoing profitability and with positive impact on

CET1, as RWA are down EUR 1.3bn Q/Q.

- Credit quality: improvement confirmed, with lower stocks, lower inflows

and higher coverage. Indeed, gross impaired loans are down 3.1% Y/Y to EUR

13.2bn, helped by new NPL inflows decreasing over 69% since the peak of the

crisis (2013) and 50% Y/Y and virtually back to FY07 levels. Coverage rising to

47.8% on bad loans (58.6% including write-offs) and to 37% on all impaired loans

(45.1% including write-offs).

- Capital: FL CET1 ratio of 11.3% not including yet 30bps to be added in

Q4 from Single Bank creation and 37-40bps to be added in 2017 from DTA. Mgmt

reiterated the bank doesn’t need any capital raising on a standalone basis, while

in a M&A scenario all will depend upon targeted aggregation. Mgmt reiterating

again is looking only to value-accretive deals and no buy-outs.

- FY16 guidance: revenue trend forecasted to grow vs. Q3, with

improvement in core revenues (NII + commissions) and lower trading/hedging

activity. Objective confirmed to contain operating expenses at FY15 level,

absorbing the higher ordinary systemic charges with staff and admin. costs cuts.

Finally, loan losses in Q4 16 expected to be down from Q4 15. All indications in

line with our expectations.

Conclusion & Action: We reiterate Buy with EUR 4.3 target price.

Analyst(s):


[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4239

Buy

2.50


4.30



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg UBI.MI/UBI IM



Free float 100%









Total Revenue (m) 3,289 3,101 3,154

Pre-Provision Profit (PPP) (m) 1,111 897 1,144

Operating profit (OP) 308 -658 453

Earnings Before Tax (m) 374 -707 453

Net Profit (adj.) (m) 195 -799 251


Tangible BV (m) 8,517 7,680 7,823

RWA (m) 61,338 61,906 62,481

ROTE 2.3% -9.9% 3.2%


Cost/Income 66.1% 67.7% 63.5%


P/PPP 5.0 2.7 2.1

P/E (adj.) 28.6 nm 9.7

P/BV 0.7 0.3 0.3

P/TBV 0.7 0.3 0.3


PPPPS 1.23 0.92 1.17

EPS (adj.) 0.22 -0.82 0.26

BVPS 9.46 7.87 8.02

TBVPS 9.46 7.87 8.02

DPS 0.11 0.11 0.13

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0


vvdsvdvsdy

UBI BANCA Stoxx Banks (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders:

of 60


Anima

Italy/Financial Services Analyser

FINANCIAL SERVICES

Anima (Buy) Feed-back from results’ presentation

3Q16 results in line with estimates

The facts: Anima reported its 3Q16 numbers on Friday, during trading hours, followed by a

conference call.

3Q16 9M16 Y/Y A/E 3Q16E 9M16E

Net commissions 52 160 2% 0% 53 160

Performance fees 1 5 -89% 22% 1 4

Other income 5 16 -5% -1% 5 16

Total revenues 59 181 -17% 0% 58 181

Operating expense -15 -48 -9% -4% -17 -51

Other income / costs -12 -27 -2% 1% -9 -27

EBT 32 106 -23% 3% 32 103

Net profit 16 63 -34% 6% 21 60

Adj. Net profit 30 88 -22% 4% 27 85

Our analysis: numbers were in line with estimates, and well below last year due to the lack

of performance fees (EUR 5m vs EUR 45m in 9M15) and to c. EUR 9m of non-recurring

costs due a tax settlement covering the period 2004 – 2014 and already disclosed to the

market in mid-July. Anyway, the net commissions rose c. 2% Y/Y (+4% Y/Y in 1H 16)

mainly thanks to the growth in AuM (EUR 71.5bn vs EUR 71.2bn in 1H16, EUR 70.3bn at

the end of 1Q16 and vs EUR 64.3bn in 9M 15). The cost income ratio, ex performance fees,

still improved to 27.4% (in line) from 28.2% in 1H16 (25.88% in 3Q26) vs 30.6% in 9M15:

this was mainly due to the renegotiations of some contracts in G&A costs. The net

commission margin on avg. assets decreased q/q, leading profitability to c. 30.1bps in 9M16

from 30.5bps in 1H 16, mainly due to the increase in weight of institutional mandates during

the quarter.

On the basis of the deal with Anima announced on Friday, Poste ought to contribute around

EUR 75bn, of which c. EUR 68bn of Life insurance, of which c EUR 40bn related to

traditional Life products. This operation could allow as of the beginning, to count on

over EUR 147bn in assets (as of 30 September 2016), but anyway it will be

subject to Anima’s shareholder meeting approval. That said, potentially we are

talking about the third largest asset manager in Italy, which could rely on Poste’s

distribution strength in the medium-long term, considering the size of Poste’s

network and the huge amount of money (over EUR 500bn) managed by Poste at

the moment. The synergies could come from volume side and not from costs. The

offer on Pioneer will not require a capital increase according to Anima’s

management.

Conclusion & Action: We stick to Buy. Despite a pure peer comparison could be

misleading, due to Anima’s peculiar business model, in terms of multiple P/E 2016 and 2017

Anima is trading with a discount of c. 14% and 11% respectively vs its main European peers

(Man, Henderson, Schroders, Vontobel). In terms of market capitalization on total assets,

Anima is trading around 2% and 1.9% for 2016 and 2017, compared to 2.3% and 2.1%

respectively of the same European peers.

Analyst(s):

Enrico Esposti, CIIA, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4022

Buy

4.89


5.80



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg ANIM.MI/ANIM IM



Free float 75%













Net Profit (adj.) (m) 151 118 133

Shareholders Equity (m) 796 802 876

Tangible BV (m) 0 0 0

RWA (m) 0 0 0

ROTE 20.0% 14.7% 15.9%


Cost/Income 30.6% 35.8% 33.3%

P/PPP 11.9 9.5 8.4

P/E (adj.) 16.0 12.4 11.0

P/BV 3.0 1.8 1.7

P/TBV nm nm nm


PPPPS 0.67 0.52 0.58

EPS (adj.) 0.50 0.39 0.44

BVPS 2.66 2.68 2.92

TBVPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

DPS 0.25 0.13 0.19

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0


vvdsvdvsdy

ANIMA FTSE Italy All Share (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: BPM 15%; Poste Italiane 10%;

of 60


Ferratum

Germany/Financial Services Analyser

FINANCIAL SERVICES

Ferratum (Buy) 3Q16 results in line with estimates

Model Update

The facts: Following weaker than expected Q3 results and taking into account

Ferratum’s profit guidance for 2017 we have updated our earnings model.

Our analysis:

Q3 results: Pretax profit declined by 42% yoy to EUR 2.4m in Q3 (equinet: EUR

3.2m) due to a strong increase in costs yoy (+41% yoy). Reason for the weaker

than expected Q3 results were lower than expected revenues, which increased by

30% yoy to EUR 38.2m (equinet: EUR 39.5m). Both costs and risk provisions

were slightly below our forecast while the financial result was slightly weaker than

expected.

Revenue development by product: Revenues with the Credit Limit product

increased by 72% yoy to EUR 46m in 9M’16 and PLUS Loan revenues went up

by 251% yoy to EUR 20.8m. While the former generated a net product margin of

EUR 0.8m due to high upfront costs (marketing and risk provisions), the latter

contributed a net margin of EUR 8m. Microloans revenues declined by 11% yoy

to EUR 38.9m, net product margin declined by 11% yoy to EUR 5.6m.

Asset Quality: Positively, asset quality has further improved during Q3 as the

NPL ratio declined by 5%-pts. qoq to 33%, total loans overdue as a percentage of

total loans declined by 6%-pts. qoq to 41%. At the same time the coverage ratio

declined by 7%-pts. qoq to 60%.

Strategic measures announced: FRU announced that it would give up non-

profitable products like FerBuy, lending activities in Slovakia and that it would

cancel the planned takeover of FCB-Firmen Credit Bank GmbH. While the latter

clearly comes as a surprise and we are still somewhat struggling to understand

this U-turn, we see it positively that Ferratum is giving up unprofitable products

and focuses more on its core products and countries. Particularly for fast growing

companies like Ferratum we see it of utmost importance to not get distracted by

too many initiatives. Hence, we see it also positively, that new market entries are

postponed and FRU rather focuses on further improving its product offering in the

existing countries. In the CC the CEO explained that the expansion outside of

Europe will be done through cooperations/JV’s in the future.

Mobile Bank and Deposit Business: The Mobile Bank is now active in three

countries: Germany, Sweden and Norway. As of 30 September, 2016 Ferratum

had EUR 89m of deposits at an average interest rate of around 1%. Thus

Ferratum has successfully opened up a new and most importantly cheap funding

source.

Financials: We have cut our EPS estimates from EUR 0.74 to EUR 0.62 and

from EUR 1.40 to EUR 1.13 for 2016e and 2017e, respectively, taking into

account the weak Q3 results and the company’s 2017 guidance.

Conclusion & Action: Based on our reduced earnings estimates we have cut

our target price (which is based upon a peer group analysis and a DDM) from

EUR 27.00 to EUR 20.00. We stick however to our Buy recommendation as we

continue to see Ferratum as an interesting growth story, particularly following the

recent share price decline which is overdone in our view. With a 2017e PER of

13x the shares are trading now at very attractive valuation multiples which do not

reflect the company’s future earnings potential, in our view. Driven by an ongoing

roll-out of the consumer loan products to new countries revenues should continue

to grow significantly. We forecast an average revenue growth of 35% p.a. and an

EPS growth of 66% for the next two years (CAGR 2016e-18e).

Analyst(s):


[email protected]

+49 69 58997 414

Buy

14.60


20.00

27.00from Target Price: EUR


Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg FRU.DE/FRU GY



Free float 34%













Net Profit (adj.) (m) 11 13 25

Shareholders Equity (m) 78 88 108

Tangible BV (m) 78 88 108

RWA (m) 0 0 0

ROTE 22.0% 16.1% 25.1%


Cost/Income 54.0% 53.9% 51.0%

P/PPP 12.6 4.6 3.1

P/E (adj.) nm 23.7 12.9

P/BV 8.3 3.6 2.9

P/TBV 8.3 3.6 2.9


PPPPS 2.38 3.16 4.70

EPS (adj.) 0.51 0.62 1.13

BVPS 3.61 4.07 4.97

TBVPS 3.61 4.07 4.97

DPS 0.10 0.12 0.23

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32


vvdsvdvsdy

FERRATUM SDAX (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Jorma Jokela 57%; Carmignac 9%;

of 60


TIP - Tamburi Investment Partners

Italy/Financial Services

Analyser

FINANCIAL SERVICES

TIP Tamburi Investment Partners (Buy) Model Update

9M 16 results

The facts: TIP published its 9M 16 results on Friday November 11th

.

Our analysis: TIP released EUR 10m revenues in 9M 16 (vs. EUR 2.5m in 9M

15) thanks to advisory revenues increase (including fees related to Asset Italia).

Financial income was EUR 110m (EUR 25.5m in 9M 15) and net profit was EUR

81m.

We point out that TIP had EUR 78m capital gain related to Clubsette / Moncler

operation; TIP still holds more than 2% in Moncler.

Total net equity exceeded EUR 400m.

Conclusion & Action: We confirm our rating and target price.

Analyst(s):

Giada Cabrino, CIIA, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4092

Buy

3.61


4.40



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg TIP.MI/TIP IM



Free float 71%








Total Net Asset Value 0.0 0%

NAVPS (EUR) nm nm

Share price*: EUR 3.61 3.61

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8


vvdsvdvsdy

TIP TAMBURI INVESTMENT PARTNERS FTSE Italy All Share (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: D'amico Società di Navigazione 10%;

Giovanni Tamburi 7%; The Summer Trust

6%; Francesco Angelini 5%;

of 60


Enervit

Italy/Food & Beverage Analyser

FOOD & BEVERAGE

Enervit (Accumulate) 9M 16 results

Q3 16 results in line with our estimates

The facts: we remind investors that Enervit’s sales are seasonal, with Q1 and Q3

generally each accounting for 20% of annual volumes, while Q2 and Q4

accounting for c. 60%.

Q3 16 Enervit sales were at EUR 11.5m, with an increase of 3.4% Y/Y and they

were in line with our forecasts.

9M 16 Enervit sales were at EUR 34.0m, with an increase of 4.5% Y/Y. 9M 16

Italian business unit sales were up 4.5% Y/Y and 9M 16 International business

unit sales increased by 119.3% Y/Y.

Conclusion & Action: 9M sales were overall in line with our estimates, so we

confirm our DCF- based Target Price is of EUR 2.85 per share and our

Accumulate recommendation.

Analyst(s):

PaolaSaglietti, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4287

Accumulate

2.81


2.85



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg ENVT.MI/ENV IM



Free float 16%









Sales (m) 52 55 57

EBITDA (m) 4 5 6


EBIT (m) 2 3 4

EBIT margin 3.4% 5.5% 6.3%


ROCE 6.7% 11.9% 13.4%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 1 2 2




EV/Sales 1.0 1.0 0.9

EV/EBITDA 14.5 10.8 9.5

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 14.5 10.8 9.5

EV/EBIT 29.3 17.6 14.7

P/E (adj.) nm 28.2 23.6

P/BV 2.5 2.9 2.7

OpFCF yield -2.7% 5.3% 2.5%


EPS (adj.) 0.02 0.10 0.12

BVPS 1.15 0.96 1.04

DPS 0.03 0.04 0.04

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2


vvdsvdvsdy

ENERVIT Stoxx Food & Beverage (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Sorbini Alberto 18%; Sorbini Giuseppe

18%; Alessandri Nerio 31%; Sorbini

Maurizia 15%; Baldini Stefano 2.00%;

of 60


La Doria

Italy/Food & Beverage Analyser

FOOD & BEVERAGE

La Doria (Neutral) Q3 16 results in line with our estimates

9M 16 results weak as expected

- 9M 16 sales decreased by 12.6%: this result was due to the drop in sales

prices and a negative Forex impact.

- 9M 16 EBITDA decreased by 23.7%: the revenues decrease and the

continuous competitive pressure negatively impacted the profitability.

LA DORIA: 9M 16 results

H1 15a H1 16a %Chg.

Sales 562.6 491.6 -12.6%

EBITDA 58.9 44.9 -23.7%

EBITDA margin 10.5% 9.1%

Source: Company Data

Outlook on FY 16: the management expect a continuous contraction in revenues

and margins owing to the deflationary effects on sales prices largely due to the

2015 and 2016 tomato processing campaigns. Furthermore, the unfavourable

EUR-GBP exchange rate movements will continue to impact the current year.

Conclusion & Action: based on the still negative scenario we confirm our

Neutral recommendation.

Analyst(s):

Paola Saglietti, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4287

Neutral

7.20


11.00



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg LDO.MI/LD IM



Free float 37%









Sales (m) 748 656 660

EBITDA (m) 78 57 50


EBIT (m) 61 42 37

EBIT margin 8.1% 6.3% 5.6%


ROCE 11.6% 8.0% 7.0%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 130 112 100




EV/Sales 0.8 0.6 0.6

EV/EBITDA 7.5 6.7 7.4

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 7.5 6.7 7.4

EV/EBIT 9.6 9.2 10.0

P/E (adj.) 9.0 7.7 8.9

P/BV 2.0 1.0 1.0

OpFCF yield 11.5% 15.0% 11.4%


EPS (adj.) 1.45 0.94 0.81

BVPS 6.40 7.06 7.57

DPS 0.28 0.30 0.32

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vvdsvdvsdy

LA DORIA FTSE Italy All Share (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Ferraioli family 63%;

of 60


Food & Drug Retailers

Analyser


9M 16 results weak as expected Portugal - Prices in the “Food and non-alcoholic

beverages” segment in October 2016 (+0.45% YoY)

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vvdsvdvsdy

The facts: According to the Portuguese statistical office (INE) the variation of

the price index for the “Food and non-alcoholic beverages” segment was

+0.45% YoY in October vs. +1.0% in September and +1.82% YoY in August.

Our analysis: The total CPI annual rate in Portugal was +0.88% YoY in October

vs. +0.63% YoY in September. The main drivers for that YoY variation were

“Restaurants and hotels” (+4.2% YoY) and “Communications” (+3.1% YoY).

Exhibit: Portugal - Price index evolution* (YoY)

Source: INE & CaixaBI Equity Research. *Index for “Food and non-alcoholic beverages”

Conclusion & Action: The evolution of prices in the Food segment continued

positive in September in spite of a deceleration in the growth rate when

comparted to the most recent months. The average monthly price evolution is

now close to 0.48% YoY in 2016 (with +1.50% YoY in the 3Q16).

If this trend on prices remains visible in the coming months (low but positive

inflation), the food sector can aspire to rebalance its pricing competition, thus

allowing companies to consider accommodating some margin protection. In

fact, during its 9M16 results conference call (held on 10 November), Sonae

stated that “food retail prices may have reached equilibrium”; the company can

sustain current price investment levels without further margin deterioration.

However, both Jerónimo Martins and Sonae are ready to further deepen its

commercial aggressiveness if local competitors attempt to threaten its market

position. Overall, the main companies in the country continue to emphasize the

idea that the market remains strongly driven by promotions and their focus on

discounts could not be reduced in the next quarters.

Sonae generates over 90% of its sales in Portugal while for Jerónimo Martins

local sales account for around 30% of revenues. According to their most recent

results presentations, Jerónimo Martins presented a LfL sales growth of 0.9%

YoY in 9M16 for Pingo Doce (+2.4% in 3Q16) and +4.4% YoY for the cash &

carry unit Recheio (+5.9% in 3Q16). In the case of Sonae, the LfL sales growth

in the food retail unit was at 1.8% YoY in 9M16 (+4.1% YoY in 3Q16).

---------- Stoxx Food & Drug Retailers,

DJ Stoxx TMI rebased on sector

Analyst(s):

André Rodrigues Caixa-Banco de Investimento

[email protected]

+351 21 389 68 39

José Mota Freitas, CFA, Caixa-Banco de

Investimento

[email protected]

+351 22 607 09 31

1.0%

0.5%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16

of 60


Marr

Italy/Food & Drug Retailers Analyser


Marr (Accumulate) Portugal - Prices in the “Food and non-alcoholic beverages” segment in October 2016 (+0.45% YoY)

Q3 16 results preview

The facts: Q3 16 results are due out on 14th

November.

Our analysis: we forecast a 6.0% increase in revenues in Q3 16 to EUR 482.3m,

driven by a 4.0% growth in the Street Market channel and by the positive

contribution of DE.AL acquired in April. We expect Q3 16e EBITDA at EUR

42.8m, with an EBITDA margin of 8.9% in line with the previous year.

The following table shows our Q3/9M 16 forecast:

MARR: Q3 16e and 9M 16e preview

Q3 15a Q3 16e %Chg. 9M 15a 9M 16e %Chg.

Sales 454.8 482.3 6.0% 1,152.7 1,205.1 4.5%

EBITDA 40.7 42.8 5.0% 88.0 92.3 4.9%

Margin % 8.9% 8.9% 7.6% 7.7%

Source: Company data, Banca Akros estimates

Conclusion & Action: we confirm our Accumulate recommendation.

Analyst(s):


[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4287

Accumulate

16.70


20.30



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg MARR.MI/MARR IM



Free float 49%









Sales (m) 1,481 1,566 1,629

EBITDA (m) 106 111 116


EBIT (m) 89 95 100

EBIT margin 6.0% 6.0% 6.1%


ROCE 15.4% 14.4% 14.9%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 165 198 185



Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 15.6 (48,724.6) 1,718.4

EV/Sales 0.9 0.8 0.8

EV/EBITDA 13.2 11.4 10.8

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 13.2 11.4 10.8

EV/EBIT 15.7 13.5 12.6

P/E (adj.) 28.9 22.3 21.1

P/BV 4.6 3.8 3.5

OpFCF yield 5.2% -1.8% 5.9%


EPS (adj.) 0.66 0.75 0.79

BVPS 4.11 4.43 4.77

DPS 0.66 0.69 0.71

15.5

16.0

16.5

17.0

17.5

18.0

18.5

19.0

19.5

20.0


vvdsvdvsdy

MARR FTSE Italy STAR (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Cremonini S.p.a. 51%;

of 60


Kendrion

Netherlands/General Industrials Analyser

GENERAL INDUSTRIALS

Kendrion (Buy) Q3 16 results preview Buy

26.12


30.00



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg SVEL.AS/KENDR NA



Free float 68%









Sales (m) 442 444 465

EBITDA (m) 45 47 57

EBITDA margin 10.2% 10.6% 12.3%

EBIT (m) 22 23 33

EBIT margin 5.0% 5.2% 7.1%


ROCE 6.3% 7.7% 9.6%





EV/Sales 0.9 0.9 0.9

EV/EBITDA 8.6 8.8 7.1

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 8.4 7.9 6.9

EV/EBIT 17.7 17.8 12.4

P/E (adj.) 15.0 15.1 12.3

P/BV 1.9 2.0 1.9

OpFCF yield 5.8% 4.8% 6.3%


EPS (adj.) 1.61 1.73 2.12

BVPS 12.88 13.09 13.75

DPS 0.78 0.78 0.87

Good progress in strategy and results are recovering

The facts: We published an update on Kendrion. We slightly raise our price

target to EUR 30 and maintain out Buy rating.

Our analysis: Kendrion is making good progress with its strategy which is

focused on simplifying its organisation. It already announced the closure of its

facility in Brazil and recently the closure of another relatively small facility in

Switzerland was announced. Total annual cost savings are now expected to be

EUR 5m. Over the next 12-18 months, the company will gradually announce more

measures which will increase total cost savings to an estimated EUR 10m,

reflecting a margin improvement of 200bps. Based on cost savings and operating

leverage we see further margin potential towards 9.5% in 2018 (+230bps versus

7.2% in 2016E).

Following a disappointing 2H15, Kendrion is showing improving revenue trends in

2016. In Q3, organic revenue growth was 2% versus flat in Q2 and a decline of

3% in Q1. Growth is driven by a better performance within Passenger Cars whilst

Commercial Vehicles still faced tough market conditions. Industrial is growing

slightly in a stable German machine building industry. The focus on high growth

niche markets should gradually pay off and result in an accelerating organic

revenue growth. We have lowered our 2016 growth forecast to 1% but still expect

a strong acceleration towards 5% in 2017 (unchanged) and 7% in 2018 (was

6.5%).

Kendrion’s financial position is strong with solvency at 50% and net debt /

EBITDA of 1.2 this year expected to improve to 0.5 in 2018. The dividend policy

remains at a pay-out ratio of 30-50% (2015: 60%). Although we think that the

primary focus is on organic revenue growth, management won’t shy away from

acquisitions if they become available (most targets are family owned). Kendrion

has a ‘war chest’ of EUR 100m, offering ample room for add-on acquisitions. If

this is not used for acquisitions we expect the company to return more cash to

shareholders.

We have slightly adjusted our estimates. Our revenue forecast for 2016 is

lowered somewhat which also has an impact on our 2017 and 2018 estimates. As

growth in 2016 is slower than we previously estimated, we now take into account

a CAGR of 4% in the period 2016-2018, slightly below company target of 5%. As

cost savings are higher than previously estimated we raise our margin forecast for

2016 a bit and maintain our margin forecast of 9.5% for 2018, thereby assuming

that the company will be able to reach the 10% level as from the end of 2018. On

our new estimates we arrive at a DCF-based price target of EUR 30.00 (was EUR

27.00).

Conclusion & Action: Kendrion is making good progress with its new strategic

direction which was set in May of this year. Costs saving measures are being

taken which will underpin margin potential in the next few years. Kendrion’s focus

on high growth niche markets should gradually pay off, with high potential for its

damping systems and sound systems. The new strategy should result in organic

revenue growth of 5% on average and a return to an EBITA level of 10% as from

the end of 2018, which still seems reasonable and achievable. We slightly raised

our margin estimate for 2016 and our estimates assume an EBITA CAGR of 20%

in the 2016-2018 period. Kendrion is valued at an EV/EBITDA of 6.9 for 2017,

which shows a large discount of 20-30% to industrial peers. We have raised our

price target to EUR 30.00 and the company offers a good dividend yield of 3-4%.

We maintain our Buy rating.

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vvdsvdvsdy

KENDRION EuroNext (Rebased)Source: Factset Shareholders: Delta Lloyd Deelnemingen 10%; Kempen

CM 6%; Janivo 6%; Darlin 5%; T. Rowe

Price 5%; Analyst(s):

Johan van den Hooven, NIBC Markets N.V.

[email protected]

+312 0 5508518

of 60


Pihlajalinna

EUR million 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E

Sales 104 149 213 402 431 450

Sales Growth (%) 121% 43% 43% 88% 7% 4%

EBIT excl non rec items 7.3 6.0 3.6 15.5 22.1 32.1

EBIT (%) 7.0 % 4.0 % 1.7 % 3.9 % 5.1 % 7.1 %

PTP - - 1 11 16 24

EPS - - 0.03 0.39 0.65 0.98

DPS - - 0.02 0.14 0.32 0.49

Yield (%) - - 0.1% 0.9% 2.0% 3.0%

EV/Sales - - 1.9 0.8 0.8 0.7

EV/EBITDA - - 34.6 12.1 9.6 7.0

P/E - - 590.0 40.8 24.8 16.5

P/B - - 4.4 3.2 2.8 2.5

ROE - - 0% 8% 11% 15%

ROCE - - 3% 10% 15% 22%

Equity Ratio - - 45% 46% 49% 51%

Gearing - - 45% 9% -3% -15%

Source: OP

Pihlajalinna

Finland/Healthcare Analyser

HEALTHCARE

Pihlajalinna (Buy) Good progress in strategy and results are recovering

Promising signs of profitability

The facts: As a whole, Pihlajalinna’s Q3 results were good even though the

reported sales were below expectations and the company slightly downgraded its

sales guidance. The sales generated by outsourcing agreements will remain

slightly below the original estimate as certain items have been transferred from

the joint venture to a municipality. The change will have no effect on earnings. Q3

EBITDA (EUR 6.8m) was better than expected (EUR 5.2m) and it thus offered a

positive image of the company's earnings potential. The results of the L&E

segment were soft as expected in a seasonally weak Q3 (summer months), but

the solid profitability of P&S (11% EBITDA margin) was a positive surprise. As a

result of provisions for holiday pay, Q3 was exceptionally good for this segment.

Our analysis: With regard to outsourcing contracts, Pihlajalinna was awarded

with the contract with Tervola after the second examination, as we assumed. The

contract is worth about EUR 13m and the current plan is to start service

production on 1 July 2017. To our surprise, Pihlajalinna did not tender for the

Tesoma wellbeing centre in Tampere (value EUR 10m), as the terms and

conditions of the contract were not reasonable. The possible contract with Forssa

has been specified to be worth around EUR 95–115m, but the scope of the

contract may still change. Kouvola has predicted that the contract with the city is

worth EUR 84m, which is considerably less than our preliminary estimate (EUR

240m; it is not likely to be a total outsourcing). It is still open whether Kauhajoki

will join the Kuusiokunnat agreement and there is no deadline set for the decision.

The draft law for the social and health care reform will be circulated for comments

in November and December. It seems that the freedom of choice will be more

restricted than anticipated in 2019, but it will notably be extended in 2021. The

final entity is still open but we consider the key role of private companies

inevitable in service production.

Conclusion & Action: We see no reason to change our positive view of the

company. We retain our target price at EUR 20 (70% EV/EBITDA 10x and 30%

DCF) and our Buy recommendation.

Analyst(s):

Kimmo Stenvall, OP Corporate Bank

[email protected]

+358 10 252 4561

Buy

16.10


20.00



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg PIHLIS.HE/PIHLIS FH



Free float 70%









Sales (m) 213 422 449

EBITDA (m) 12 27 33


EBIT (m) 4 14 21

EBIT margin 1.7% 3.4% 4.7%


ROCE 2.1% 8.9% 13.0%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 27 10 (2)


Debt/EBITDA 2.3 0.4 -0.1


EV/Sales 1.8 0.8 0.7

EV/EBITDA 33.7 12.9 10.0

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 33.7 12.9 10.0

EV/EBIT nm 23.8 15.5

P/E (adj.) nm 46.0 25.9

P/BV 3.9 3.2 2.9

OpFCF yield -7.4% 6.7% 5.9%


EPS (adj.) 0.00 0.35 0.62

BVPS 4.54 4.97 5.61

DPS 0.02 0.12 0.31

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vvdsvdvsdy

PIHLAJALINNA OMXH (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Sentica Buyout 16%; Mww Corporation

11%; Lähitapiola Mutual Insurance

Company 7%;

of 60


Fila

Italy/Household Goods Analyser

HOUSEHOLD GOODS

Fila (Buy) Promising signs of profitability

9M 16 results: good top line growth

The facts: Fila released its 9M 16 results on Friday November 11th after market

closure, a conference call followed.

Our analysis: Fila released another good quarter, in line with expectations. The

top line was driven by 8.2% organic growth (4.5% est. in Q3 16) and by EUR

82.7m M&A effect (Writefine, Daler Rowney and St. Cuthberts), notably Writefine

grew double digits; negative forex impact was EUR 9m in 9M1 6. Organic growth

was in Central and South America, Europe (in particular Italy, Spain, Russia,

Poland, Greece and Scandinavia) and North America. By product, organic growth

was given by all the product categories: other creativity instruments (+13.7%,

43.3% on sales); colored pencils (+4.8%; 42.5%) and by office and industrial

products (+6.9%, 14.2%). EBITDA grew 12% excluding the M&A (EUR 10m

positive contribution to EBITDA from M&A) and forex effects. EUR 6.2m

adjustments relate to extraordinary costs for the acquisitions.

Net debt at the end of September was EUR 175.7m vs. EUR 38.7m net debt YE

2015. The difference (EUR 137.1m) was given by both extraordinary and ordinary

effects. Extraordinary effect: -EUR 87.2m net debt of the newly acquired

companies, -EUR 23.7m for acquisitions. Net of these effects the net debt would

be EUR 64.9 (+26m vs. 9M 16).

Cash flow before trade working capital was EUR 41m (EUR 27.3m in 9M 15).

Trade working capital absorbed EUR 53.8m (EUR 56.2m in 9M 15), capex was

EUR 7.3m, dividends EUR 4.3m, interest paid EUR 3.9m and positive forex effect

EUR 3m.

Fila: 9M 16 results

(EUR m) Q3 15 Q3 16 Y/Y 9M 15 9M 16 Y/Y

Sales 76.3 107.8 41.3% 217.8 309.3 42.0%

EBITDA 11.9 17.8 49.8% 37.9 49.0 29.3%

% on sales 15.7% 16.5%

17.40% 15.8%

EBITDA adj.* 13.1 18.6 42.1% 40.9 55.2 35.0%

% on sales 17.1% 17.3%

18.8% 17.8%

Net income 6.1 9.6 nm -28.2 22.7 nn

Net income adj.** 7.4 10.3 39.2% 20.7 27.3 31.9%

Source: company data and Banca Akros elaborations

Conclusion & Action: Fila reported another good set of results. Canson (EUR

100m sales and est. EBITDA EUR 7.5m in FY 15) acquisition, consolidated

starting from October 2016, gives boost to our investment case, thanks to the

synergies arising especially with Fila and Daler Rowney (est. EUR 4.5m in FY

17E, EUR 9m in FY 18E synergies); according to our new estimates (not

reflected in our price target yet, an update will follow) Fila should reach 17%

EBITDA margin in FY 19E and even higher in the following years.

Analyst(s):


[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4092

Buy

12.89


14.80



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg FILA.MI/FILA IM



Free float 26%








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vvdsvdvsdy

FILA FTSE Italy Microcap (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Pencil 66%; VEI 8%;

Key financials (EUR)

12/15 12/16e

12/17e Sales (m) 275 394 419 EBITDA adj. (m) 47.5 65.1 71 EBITDA margin adj. 17.3

% 16.5

% 17.0

% EBIT (m) 34 52 59 EBIT margin 12.3

% 13.1

% 14.2

% Net Profit (adj.)(m) 25 32 35 ROCE 9.8

% 8.6

% 9.2

% Net debt/(cash) (m)

39 129 109 Net Debt/Equity 0.2 0.5 0.3 Debt/EBITDA

0.9 2.0 1.5 Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) high 9.3 12.3 EV/Sales 1.9 1.8 1.6 EV/EBITDA 12.4 11.1 9.6 EV/EBITDA (adj.) 10.9 10.7 9.6 EV/EBIT 15.3 13.6 11.5 P/E (adj.) 18.1 16.8 15.1 P/BV 2.4 2.4 2.1 OpFCF yield -

9.0% -

20.6% 4.5

% Dividend yield 0.7

% 1.2

% 1.5

% EPS (adj.) 0.60 0.77 0.86 BVPS 4.50 5.51 6.22 DPS 0.09 0.15 0.19

of 60


Biesse

Italy/Industrial Engineering Analyser


Biesse (Accumulate) 9M 16 results: good top line growth

Positive 9M results and FY 16 guidance update

- 9M 16 sales increased by 19.5%: in particular thanks to the good performance

of Western Europe (+29.5%), North America (+13.5%) and APAC (+24.8%);

- 9M 16 EBITDA grew by 17.6% Y/Y: the profitability improvement is less than

proportional to sales growth, mainly due to the strong increase in the personnel

costs (+18.2% Y/Y) owing to the significant investments in personnel.

BIESSE: Q3/9M 16 results

9M 15a 9M 16a % Chg

Sales 365.1 436.4 +19.5%

EBITDA 43.2 50.8 +17.6%

% margin 11.8% 11.6%

Q3 15a Q3 16a % Chg

Sales 119.6 152.7 +27.7%

EBITDA 14.2 20.4 +43.9%

% margin 11.9% 13.4%


Biesse’s order intake in 9M 16 increased by 13.4% compared to 9M 15,

consequently, the order portfolio at the end of September 16 was higher by 16.5%

compared to September 15.

FY 16 guidance update: based on 9M results and on the current order backlog,

the management revised FY 16 guidance announced in February.

EUR m Old

guidance

New

guidance

Sales 572 +10% Y/Y 595 – 598 +14-15% Y/Y

EBITDA 73.6 EBITDA margin 12.9% 58 - 60 EBITDA margin 11.4-11.9%

Net Debt 0.1 0 - 5

We have factored this guidance into our FY 16e estimates: FY 16e sales growth

of +14.8% (vs. previous est. +8.9%) and FY 16e EBITDA margin of 11.4% (vs.

previous est. 11.7%).

Conclusion & Action: given the positive results and the strong orders, we

confirm our Accumulate recommendation and our Target Price of EUR 18.80 per

share calculated based on our DCF model (1.2% perpetual growth rate and

WACC 7.5%).

Analyst(s):


[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4287

Accumulate

15.76


18.80



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg BSS.MI/BSS IM



Free float 33%









Sales (m) 519 596 654

EBITDA (m) 64 68 78

EBITDA margin 12.4% 11.4% 12.0%

EBIT (m) 44 45 54

EBIT margin 8.4% 7.5% 8.3%


ROCE 15.6% 14.4% 16.4%

Net debt/(cash) (m) (0) 3 (4)




EV/Sales 0.9 0.8 0.7

EV/EBITDA 7.0 6.6 5.7

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 7.0 6.6 5.7

EV/EBIT 10.2 10.1 8.2

P/E (adj.) 18.0 17.8 14.5

P/BV 3.1 2.8 2.5

OpFCF yield 5.1% 4.5% 3.9%


EPS (adj.) 0.88 0.89 1.09

BVPS 5.15 5.64 6.31

DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

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vvdsvdvsdy

BIESSE Stoxx Industrial Engineering (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: BI.FIN s.r.l. 51%;

of 60


Datalogic



Datalogic (Accumulate) Positive 9M results and FY 16 guidance update

9M 16 results: profitability slightly higher than expected

As previously announced, 9M 16 sales increased by 7.8% Y/Y to EUR 421.8m.

The group recorded a good sales growth in both divisions: 1) revenues in the

ADC division grew by 9.3% Y/Y, especially thanks to the sales of POS check out

fixed scanners, the new mobile computers and the new products Joya Touch and

Shop Evolution 7; 2) the IA sector sales grew by 9.2% Y/Y.

In terms of geographic sales, all markets recorded a robust trend. Europe

achieved robust growth in IA (+13.4%) and in ADC (+8.6%); North America

recorded double digit growth in ADC division and a decrease in IA sector due to a

seasonality effect impacting T&L projects; lastly, the group achieved a strong

revenues growth in China mainly driven by IA and in Latin America thanks to

ADC.

9M 16 EBITDA improved by 25.5% (slightly better than our est of +23.3%): the

EBITDA margin increased from 13.6% in 9M 15 to 15.8% in 9M 16 (vs our

estimates 15.5%). This improvement was due to a strong cost control and a lower

incidence of the distribution costs.

DATALOGIC: Q3/9M 16 results

9M 15a 9M 16a % Chg

Sales 391.3 421.8 +7.8%

EBITDA 53.1 66.6 +25.5%

% margin 13.6% 15.8%

Q3 15a Q3 16a % Chg

Sales 133.8 139.9 +4.6%

EBITDA 18.8 21.7 +15.6%

% margin 14.0% 15.5%


Positive outlook on FY 16 confirmed: based on the booking during Q3 16 (EUR

138.1m, +3.5% vs Q3 15) FY 16 revenues growth will be in line with the trend of

the first nine months; 2) the profitability will continue to improve.

So, we confirm our FY 16 estimates, which are in line with the indications.

Conclusion & Action: we maintain our positive stance on the stock and, based

on the positive outlook, we confirm our Accumulate recommendation and our

target price of EUR 19.20 per share (DCF model - WACC at 7.00% and 1.5%

perpetual growth rate).

Analyst(s):


[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4287

Accumulate

18.00


19.20



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg DAL.MI/DAL IM



Free float 33%









Sales (m) 535 578 617

EBITDA (m) 74 89 97

EBITDA margin 13.8% 15.3% 15.8%

EBIT (m) 56 67 75

EBIT margin 10.4% 11.7% 12.2%


ROCE 11.1% 12.1% 12.3%


Net Debt/Equity 0.1 0.0 -0.1

Debt/EBITDA 0.3 0.0 -0.2


EV/Sales 1.9 1.9 1.8

EV/EBITDA 14.0 12.5 11.1

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 14.0 12.5 11.1

EV/EBIT 18.7 16.5 14.4

P/E (adj.) 23.6 20.9 17.9

P/BV 3.2 3.0 2.6

OpFCF yield 5.2% 2.4% 2.7%


EPS (adj.) 0.69 0.86 1.01

BVPS 5.10 5.96 6.97

DPS 0.15 0.15 0.16

12

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vvdsvdvsdy

DATALOGIC FTSE Italy STAR (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Hydra 67%;

of 60


Emak



Emak (Accumulate) 9M 16 results: profitability slightly higher than expected

9M 16 results

Positive sales trend: 9M 16 sales grew by 2.5% Y/Y; despite a negative forex

impact for 1.2%, the sales benefited from organic growth +3.1% Y/Y and external

growth +0.6%. The “Outdoor power equipment” sector recorded a positive

performance (+2.0% Y/Y) thanks to a sales acceleration in Q3; “Pumps and High

pressure water jetting” sector recorded a slight positive sales growth of +1.5% Y/Y

and “Components and accessories” division achieved a growth of +4.4% Y/Y.

Good improvement in profitability: 9M 16 EBITDA grew by 11.4%. The

profitability benefited from a strong costs reduction.

EMAK: 9M 16 results

9M 15a 9M 16a %Chg.

Sales 302.2 309.7 +2.5%

EBITDA 32.6 36.3 +11.4%


Source: Company Data and BANCA AKROS estimates

Outlook on FY 16: based on 9M results and on the visibility on Q4 trend, the

management is confident that the group will achieve a FY 16 turnover at around

390m and an EBITDA at around EUR 40m.

Our FY 16 estimates are substantially in line with the foregoing indications.

Conclusion & Action: we confirm our Accumulate recommendation and our

target price of EUR 0.93 per share calculated based on our DCF model (perpetual

growth rate of 1.5% and WACC of 7.5%).

Analyst(s):


[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4287

Accumulate

0.84


0.93



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg EM.MI/EM IM



Free float 26%









Sales (m) 382 391 397

EBITDA (m) 36 40 41


EBIT (m) 23 26 25

EBIT margin 6.1% 6.6% 6.4%


ROCE 5.8% 6.3% 6.2%





EV/Sales 0.6 0.6 0.6

EV/EBITDA 6.6 6.1 5.7

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 6.6 6.1 5.7

EV/EBIT 10.1 9.5 9.3

P/E (adj.) 14.3 10.6 11.3

P/BV 0.8 0.8 0.8

OpFCF yield -7.3% 19.5% 10.0%


EPS (adj.) 0.05 0.08 0.07

BVPS 1.02 1.06 1.10

DPS 0.04 0.04 0.04

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90


vvdsvdvsdy

EMAK Stoxx Industrial Engineering (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: YAMA Group 74%;

of 60


Prima Industrie



Prima Industrie (Buy) 9M 16 results

Q3: good results, improving profitability

The facts: Prima Industrie released Q3 & 9M 2016 results on November 11th

.

Our analysis: 9M and Q3 results came in almost in line with our estimates, with

slightly below revenues and slightly better profitability (EBITDA margin came in

0.3pp above our expectations). Net profit came in significantly above 9M 15 figure

due to better comparison base (9-months 2015 were impacted by EUR 2.1m non-

recurring financial charges related to the Finpolar loan advance repayment) and

to lower than expected tax rate driven by company’s available tax credits in Italy

and in Finland.

EUR m Q3

15A Q3-16A Y/Y

Q3

16E

9M-

15A

9M-

16A Y/Y

9M-

16E

Sales 84.2 91.2 8.4% 94.7 260.1 274.5 5.6% 278

EBITDA 7.0 9.2 32.0% 8.7 21.7 24.0 10.7% 23.5


9.2% 8.3% 8.8%

8.5%

D&A -3.4 -4.0 17.9% -3.2 -9.9 -11.7 18.2% -10.9

EBIT 3.6 5.2 45.4% 5.5 11.8 12.3 4.4% 12.6

EBIT margin 4.3% 5.7%

5.8% 4.5% 4.5%

4.5%

Net Profit 0.9 2.7 nm 1.8 2.2 5.6 nm 4.7

Source: Banca Akros estimates, Prima Industrie

Geographic. Q3 confirmed the strong contribution from Americas and APAC

(+22% and +46% Y/Y respectively) that more than offset the negative contribution

of EMEA (-5% Y/Y in Q3). EMEA sales drop in the period was mainly driven by

Prima Electro (-43% Y/Y) due to decline in Oil & Gas related product sales.

EMEA’s weight further declined to 56.7% (1pp less than in H1 and 7pp less than

in 9M 15) in 9M, confirming PRI's increasing international exposure.

Net Debt. Net Debt at the end of September reached EUR 122m, increasing from

June (EUR 104m) as usual for seasonal reasons related to NWC expansion (from

EUR 76m in H1 to current EUR 96m). Q4 sales will contribute to a material NWC

reduction thus leading Net Debt to be almost in line with previous year. We

remind investors that the debt covenants are calculated only in June and

December thus providing the company a higher flexibility over the other two

quarters.

Backlog. Orders intake increased by 12% Y/Y in 9M to EUR 305.8m, thus

contributing to a very sound order intake of EUR 144.7m in Sep-16, further

increased to EUR 159.1m in Oct-16.

Conclusion & Action: Good set of results confirming our projections and our

investment case based on a continuous internationalisation of the company. On

the back of 9M figures we adjust our estimates to factor in lower tax rate and

slight increase in Capex (from EUR 11m to EUR 12.7m) on FY 16. We believe the

very sound backlog at the end of October should allow the company to meet our

estimates on 2016 and provide better than usual visibility on begin-2017 too. Net

debt should not represent an issue at year end. Buy confirmed.

Analyst(s):

Enrico Filippi, CEFA, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4071

Buy

14.24


16.40



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg PRII.MI/PRI IM



Free float 43%









Sales (m) 364 395 428

EBITDA (m) 31 36 43


EBIT (m) 17 21 28

EBIT margin 4.8% 5.2% 6.6%


ROCE 4.2% 4.7% 6.2%





EV/Sales 0.7 0.7 0.6

EV/EBITDA 8.3 7.1 5.7

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 8.3 7.1 5.7

EV/EBIT 14.9 12.4 8.7

P/E (adj.) 25.8 14.3 10.1

P/BV 1.2 1.1 1.0

OpFCF yield -7.5% 4.9% 6.6%


EPS (adj.) 0.57 1.00 1.41

BVPS 12.37 13.12 14.24

DPS 0.25 0.30 0.35

8

9

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vvdsvdvsdy

PRIMA INDUSTRIE Stoxx Industrial Engineering (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Management 7%; Stable Financial

Investors 50%;

of 60


Cattolica Assicurazioni

Italy/Insurance Analyser

INSURANCE

Cattolica Assicurazioni (Neutral) Q3: good results, improving profitability

3Q16 better than expected – 2017 targets revised down

The facts: Cattolica reported its 9M16 numbers on Friday during trading hours,

followed by a conference call.

3Q16 9M16 Y/Y A/E 3Q16E 9M16E

Net premiums 942 3,192 -15% 2% 886 3,136

Net Profit 28 45 -46% 17% 21 38

Net Profit Adj. 31 95 -9% 2% 21 93

CoR 93.6% 93.2% 1% 0% 93.5% 93.1%

Our analysis: net profit adj. was better than our estimates. More in detail, the

net premiums achieved EUR 3.192bn, -15% Y/Y. The direct premiums in Life

business recorded a decrease around -25% Y/Y, mainly still due to the slowdown

in Banca Popolare di Vicenza’s distribution channel. P&C premiums decreased

around -2.9% Y/Y (-3.5% in 1H16). Auto business premiums decrease c. -3.3%

Y/Y (-4.4% Y/Y in 1H16), mainly due to the reduction in average premium,

although at a slower pace, and despite the increase in the number of policies sold

around 2% YTD compared to 1.7% YTD in the 1H16. The Non-Auto business

premiums decreased c. 2.4% Y/Y (-2.4% Y/Y in the 1H16). CoR closed around

93.2%, essentially in line with estimates, vs 92.5% at the end of 1H16: the

increase was due to the decrease in average premium, which is still going on,

and to the Italian’s August earthquake. The Solvency II ratio, calculated using the

standard formula, close at 1.75 (1.88 in 1H16), worse than our expectations

(1.89). The 2017 consolidate net profit guidance was revised down to EUR

150m from EUR 200m, mainly due to current tough market conditions.

Conference call highlights: the average premium in Auto business ought to

increase in 2017; the negotiations with BPVI are going on; despite M&A is still on

the table, the rumours on a possible acquisition of Groupama’s Italian assets are

groundless according to Cattolica’s management.

Conclusion & Action: numbers were a little bit better than expected. Anyway,

the revision downward of the net profit guidance for 2017, the increase expected

in Auto business frequency of claims and the still negative trend of premiums of

the joint ventures with BPVI, convinced us to revise down our EPS estimate

around 15% for 2017. On the other side, we increase 2016 EPS around 5% vs

previous estimate. We stick to neutral, but we reduce our target price to EUR 6.0

from EUR 6.4. We remind readers that, the exercise price of the put option on

BPVI’s JVs ought to be c. EUR 175m. Cattolica ought to lose c. EUR 500m of

premiums distributed by this channel and net profits between EUR 8m and EUR

10m according to our calculation. The NPV of the transaction, if the put is

exercised, ought to be c. EUR 60m, equal to c. 6% of Cattolica’s current market

cap. On the other side, the overhang risk could also increase, considering that the

BPVI’s 15% in Cattolica could be sold after the exercise of the option. The

transformation of Cattolica into a joint stock company or a more likely

improvement in corporate governance remains the most important upside

potential for the medium – long term.

Analyst(s):


[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4022

Neutral

5.53


6.00



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg CASS.MI/CASS IM



Free float 85%









Life Gross premiums (m) 3,129 2,256 2,202

Non-Life Gross prem.(m) 2,079 2,023 2,060

Total Net Revenues (m) 5,429 4,406 4,349

Life Ins.Tech.Result (m) 0 0 0

Non-Life Ins. Tech.Result 0 0 0

EBIT (m) 225 232 226

Net Profit (adj.) (m) 140 120 93


ANAV (m) 1,696 1,734 1,776

ROE (adj.) (%) 7.3 6.3 4.8

Combined ratio (%) 91.5 93.1 92.6

Solvency Ratio 209.6% 214.3% 217.1%

P/E (adj.) 9.0 7.9 10.1

P/BV 0.7 0.5 0.5

P/ANAV nm nm nm

P/EbV nm nm nm


EPS (adj.) 0.82 0.70 0.54

BVPS 11.17 11.40 11.64

ANAVPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

EbVPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

DPS 0.35 0.30 0.27

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5


vvdsvdvsdy

CATTOLICA ASSICURAZIONI FTSE Italy All Share (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Banca Popolare di Vicenza 15%;

of 60


UnipolSai

Italy/Insurance Analyser

INSURANCE

UnipolSai (Neutral) 3Q16 better than expected – 2017 targets revised down

Conference call: some highlights – Downgrade from Accumulate to Neutral

The facts: UnipolSai reported its 9M16 on Friday, followed by a conference call.

Our analysis: the conference call set the following most important takeaways:

Non-Life business: the profitability in motor business is deteriorating,

although the management team expects prices will go up in the next months

with a possible improvement in current generation’s profitability, which is

negative at the moment;

Put option on Popolare Vita: the transaction ought to be closed by the end

of the year. We remind readers that the agreement is going to expire in 2017

and that Popolare Vita, the JV between UnipolSai and Banco Popolare,

distributed c. EUR 1.4bn at the end of June 2016. UnipolSai has a put option

to sell the 50% of Popolare Vita to Banco Popolare. The partnership could be

renewed for further five years;

Unipol Banca: the coverage is increasing as well as net inflows in the

quarter. The company said that it is not thinking about a big NPL disposal. On

the M&A side, UnipolSai is not considering anything at the moment. The

situation is unchanged: Unipol would like to confer the bank in another group,

also in exchange of a minority stake;

Montepaschi: the group has a marginal position in Banca Monte Paschi.

Conclusion & Action: UnipolSai’s results, in terms of EBT, beat our estimates in

all the business segments. On the back of the results we updated our estimates.

We increase our EPS adj. numbers around 8.5%, 2% and 2.3% for 2016, 2017

and 2018 respectively. We increase our target price to EUR 1.8 from EUR 1.65,

but we reduce our rating from accumulate to neutral. Indeed, after the

performance around 18% in the last month, we believe the stock is fairly priced at

the moment. In terms of cumulated net profit we are in the high range (EUR

1.558bn) of UnipolSai’s business plan targets (EUR 1.4bn – EUR 1.6bn in 2016 -

2018). Our estimates are more conservative in terms of cumulated dividend (EUR

933m vs EUR 1bn of the business plan in 2016 - 2018). The main trigger remains

an attractive and sustainable dividend yield (c. 6.7% on average in 2016 2017,

2018 according to consensus estimates). On the other side, according to

Bloomberg consensus’ multiples, the stock seems a little bit expensive (c. +23%

on average 2016, 2017, 2018 P/E Adj.).

Analyst(s):


[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4022

Neutral

1.79


1.80


from Accumulate

Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg US.MI/US IM



Free float 37%









Life Gross premiums (m) 6,648 5,451 5,342

Non-Life Gross prem.(m) 7,334 6,956 7,101

Total Net Revenues (m) 15,142 13,523 13,422

EBIT (m) 1,044 825 743

Net Profit (adj.) (m) 711 552 504


ANAV (m) 5,527 5,600 5,784

ROE (adj.) (%) 11.7 8.9 7.9

Combined ratio (%) 94.6 95.1 95.2

Solvency Ratio 180.4% 184.6% 189.5%

P/E (adj.) 9.5 9.3 10.2

P/BV 1.1 0.8 0.8

P/ANAV 1.2 0.9 0.9

P/EbV 1.2 0.9 0.9


EPS (adj.) 0.25 0.19 0.18

BVPS 2.19 2.24 2.30

ANAVPS 1.93 1.95 2.02

EbVPS 1.99 2.02 2.08

DPS 0.15 0.12 0.11

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6


vvdsvdvsdy

UNIPOLSAI Stoxx Insurance (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Unipol Gruppo Finanziario S.p.A. 61%;

Norges Bank 2%;

of 60


Atlantia

Italy/Materials, Construction & Infrastructure Analyser


Atlantia (Accumulate) Conference call: some highlights – Downgrade from Accumulate to Neutral

Sound results in Q3

The facts: Atlantia published its third quarter results on Friday after market

closing.

Our analysis: the company’s results were good and slightly better than expected

Q3 15 Q3 16 y/y% Q3 16E 9M 15 9M 16 y/y%

Total revenues 1,510 1,563 3.5% 1,544 4,003 4,129 3.1%

o/w Italian mot. 1,085 1,137 4.8% 1,100 2,842 2,987 5.1%

o/w Foreign mot. 136 150 10.3% 149 415 405 -2.4%

o/w ADR 252 257 2.0% 263 622 656 5.5%

o/w Other 50 22 -56.0% 35 139 89 -36.0%

EBITDA 970 1,062 9.5% 1,042 2,488 2,640 6.1%

% revenues 64.2% 67.9%

67.5% 62.2% 63.9%

EBIT 729 757 3.8% 750 1,804 1,722 -4.5%

PBT 584 631 8.0% 616 1,220 1,342 10.0%

Net profit 377 400 6.1% 376 754 813 7.8%

Outlook- the company said its expected consolidated gross operating profit to

register an overall improvement.

Nice airport consolidated in Q4 - the company said that its results for 2016 will

also benefit from the line-by-line consolidation of the fourth quarter 2016 of

Aéroports de la Côte d’Azur.

Conclusion & Action: the company’s result were good. The present stock prices

implies a 4.7% dividend yield; we expect the company’s dividends to show a

sizeable growth in the next few years Recommendation confirmed

Analyst(s):

Francesco Sala, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4240

Accumulate

20.47


27.00



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg ATL.MI/ATL IM



Free float 52%









Sales (m) 5,304 5,295 5,488

EBITDA (m) 3,215 3,349 3,475

EBITDA margin 60.6% 63.2% 63.3%

EBIT (m) 2,212 2,376 2,450

EBIT margin 41.7% 44.9% 44.7%


ROCE 5.0% 5.3% 5.4%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 10,399 10,028 10,070




EV/Sales 6.1 5.4 5.2

EV/EBITDA 10.0 8.5 8.2

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 10.0 8.5 8.2

EV/EBIT 14.6 12.0 11.6

P/E (adj.) 27.3 18.5 17.6

P/BV 3.0 2.4 2.3

OpFCF yield 5.2% 7.1% 5.1%


EPS (adj.) 0.90 1.11 1.16

BVPS 8.13 8.49 8.82

DPS 0.88 0.97 1.04

20

21

22

23

24

25

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vvdsvdvsdy

ATLANTIA Stoxx Construction & Materials (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Sintonia 30%; Investco 8%; Blackrock

5%; Fondazione CRT 5%;

of 60


Heijmans

Netherlands/Materials, Construction & Infrastructure Analyser


Heijmans (Buy) Sound results in Q3 Buy

5.83


10.00



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg HEIJ.AS/HEIJM NA



Free float 90%









Sales (m) 1,979 2,155 2,291

EBITDA (m) (10) 11 50

EBITDA margin nm 0.5% 2.2%

EBIT (m) (29) (11) 26

EBIT margin nm nm 1.1%

Net Profit (adj.)(m) (26) (10) 9

ROCE -17.4% -6.6% 17.0%


Net Debt/Equity 0.0 0.0 -0.1

Debt/EBITDA -1.0 0.9 -0.5

Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) (1.0) 1.4 6.5

EV/Sales 0.1 0.1 0.0

EV/EBITDA nm 12.5 2.1

EV/EBITDA (adj.) nm 12.5 2.1

EV/EBIT nm nm 4.0


P/BV 0.6 0.5 0.5

OpFCF yield -7.7% -0.2% 26.4%


EPS (adj.) (1.28) (0.48) 0.41

BVPS 12.87 11.75 12.09

DPS 0.00 0.00 0.14

CFO to leave early next year

The facts: CFO Mark van den Biggelaar will be leaving Heijmans early 2017 after

the FY16 results. He will be available until the end of June to ensure a good

transition.

Our analysis: We expect that this is a personal decision, as Heijmans’

Supervisory Board states in the press release that it “recognizes Mr. van den

Biggelaar’s contribution to the development of Heijmans over the past seven

years and regrets his departure but respects his choice”.

However, the departure of Mr. van den Biggelaar can not be seen separately from

the financial troubles that Heijmans currently is in. With the tremendous strain on

the company, we can imagine that tensions have built up in the organization.

We believe that Mr. van den Biggelaar has had a great contribution to Heijmans

with the fit for cash working capital program and the efforts to strengthen the IT

(BIM/ERP) and financial control functions. Of course, Mr. van den Biggelaar has

also been responsible for negotiating the terms for the current credit facilities

which now appear to be very tight. Although Mr. van den Biggelaar will be in the

board until early 2017, his position will clearly not be as strong and this puts more

risk to our investment case.

The financial function is very important, certainly at a construction company like

Heijmans to get a firm grip on the organization and as such the supervisory board

will have to find another solid personality with not only financial skills. The

supervisory board has started the process that will result in the appointment of a

new CFO and we would welcome a swift process.

Conclusion & Action: We expect that Heijmans will continue to act in the best

interest of shareholders and as such, Mr. van den Biggelaar’s leaving changes

nothing to our investment case that all focus should be on settling problem

projects to take away uncertainty. If this leads to a breach of covenants in the

short term, Heijmans should push for a waiver and not for adding extra equity, as

this is not the solution for the problem which is simply too low profitability. Of

course there is a relatively high risk in this investment case, but we stick to our

Buy rating and PT of EUR 10.

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

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vvdsvdvsdy

HEIJMANS Midkap (Rebased)Source: Factset Shareholders: ASR 5%; Delta Lloyd 5%; Fidelity 5%;

Analyst(s):

Edwin de Jong, NIBC Markets N.V.

[email protected]

+312 0 5508569

of 60


Lehto Group

EURm 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e

Sales 113 171 276 340 440 493

Sales growth (%) 0.0 % 50.8 % 61.1 % 23.2 % 29.4 % 12.2 %

EBIT 9.2 5.8 27.2 35.7 43.7 48.5

EBIT (%) 8.1 % 3.4 % 9.9 % 10.5 % 9.9 % 9.8 %

EPS 0.11 0.07 0.36 0.48 0.59 0.65

DPS 0.05 0.12 0.14 0.19 0.23 0.26

EV/Sales 1.4 1.1 1.0

EV/EBIT 13.2 10.8 9.7

P/E 18.9 15.4 13.8

P/E (kassaoikaistu) 16.9 13.8 12.4

EV/FCF -389.2 47.4 29.3

ROE 44% 25% 64% 25% 26% 24%

ROCE 41% 19% 54% 27% 28% 27%

Gearing -16% 51% -8% -48% -39% -34%

Equity ratio 41% 27% 37% 60% 60% 62%

Source: OP

Lehto

Finland/Materials, Construction & Infrastructure Analyser


Lehto (Accumulate) CFO to leave early next year

Guidance upgrade, target price to EUR 10

The facts: Lehto upgraded its guidance for 2016. Sales are estimated to increase

by 20–25% (previously at least 10–15%), while our forecast was 22% (consensus

20%). Lehto estimated that its EBIT will be about 10–11% of sales in 2016

(previously 8–10%). Our forecast was 9.8% (cons. 9.7%). The mid-point of the

guidance range indicates a higher EBIT of 8% compared to our forecast and the

upper end an EBIT that is 15% higher for 2016. The key factors affecting net

sales and operating profit are the recognition based on delivery of developer

contracting housing production, the number of apartments sold, as well as start

and sales of social care and educational premises and other business premises

projects.

Our analysis: Even though part of the guidance upgrade results from a more

specific completion schedule, solid sales and the start of new projects also

support the outlook for 2017. Therefore, we are raising our forecast for the EBIT

margin in 2017 to 10%. We will also include in our forecasts the recently reported

acquisition in building renovation (Wareco, annual sales EUR 29m), a module

construction project worth EUR 25m for the Pyhäjoki nuclear power plant site and

agreements on the construction of more than 200 rental apartments. We upgrade

our EBIT forecast by 8% for 2016, 13% for 2017 and 11% for 2018. Lehto will

issue a more limited business review for Q3 on 17 November compared to a half

year financial report.

Conclusion & Action: We are raising our target price for Lehto Group to EUR 10

(from EUR 9) while maintaining the Accumulate recommendation after the

company upgraded its 2016 guidance a week before the Q3 revision. We are

raising forecasts for upcoming years as a result of good sales and the recently

reported acquisition and new orders. The target price is based on forecasts for

2018 and EV/EBIT valuation at 11. Lehto benefits from a solid demand and the

company is excellently positioned in the growing sub-segments of the industry.

On the basis of the forecasts for 2017, Lehto’s EV/EBIT valuation is at the peer

group level (11) at the current share price without a premium of a good growth

profile.

Analyst(s):

Matias Rautionmaa, OP Corporate Bank

[email protected]

+358 10 252 4408

Reuters/Bloomberg LEHTO.HE/LEHTO FH



Free float 28%







Abs. perf. 12 mth


Sales (m) 276 336 413

EBITDA (m) 29 35 41

EBITDA margin 10.4% 10.4% 10.0%

EBIT (m) 27 33 39

EBIT margin 9.9% 9.8% 9.4%


ROCE 108.3% 52.3% 41.2%

Net debt/(cash) (m) (8) (54) (51)

Net Debt/Equity -0.2 -0.5 -0.4

Debt/EBITDA -0.3 -1.6 -1.2

Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) high high high

EV/Sales 1.4 1.1

EV/EBITDA 13.1 11.3

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 13.1 11.3

EV/EBIT 14.0 12.0

P/E (adj.) 20.4 17.3

P/BV 4.8 4.1

OpFCF yield 0.7% 1.3%


EPS (adj.) 0.36 0.44 0.52

BVPS 0.57 1.86 2.21

DPS 0.14 0.18 0.21

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16

vvdsvdvsdy

LEHTO OMXH (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Lehto Invest Oy 37%; Myllymäki Asko

11%; Kinnunen Mikko 4%;

Accumulat

e8.9

9 closing price as of 11/11/2016 10.0

0 From Target Price EUR 9.00


Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

of 60


Sacyr

Spain/Materials, Construction & Infrastructure Analyser


Sacyr (Buy) Guidance upgrade, target price to EUR 10

Meeting held with the company

The facts: Last Friday we held a meeting with the company and clients

Our analysis: From the meeting we highlight the following aspects mentioned:

Repsol: The intention is to continue reducing the Repsol risk, thus the Company

is studying various structures. 16% of the stake held in Repsol (8.4%) has no risk

trading under EUR10.7/share and a rise above EUR15.6/share book value is

guaranteed. The current finance ends in 2018.

Equity concessions: The corresponding contribution to 2016 has taken place

and for 2017 the Company estimates investing EUR80-90m. To date the policy

has been to rotate assets (21 assets in 5 years) and releveraging.

Itínere. The sales process continues and offers are expected at the end of the

year. The book value amounts to EUR240m. The destination would be to reduce

corporate debt (EUR260m, EUR289m convertibles) and contribute equity to

concessions.

Construction: Recovery in Somague not foreseen, but Sacyr is positive

regarding the rest of the construction activity once restructured. In addition, is the

fact that 42% of the portfolio proceeds from new concessions awarded. The

Employment Reduction Schemes amount to EUR25m in Spain and EUR10m in

Somague.

Pedemontana. Finance expected to be completed in 1Q’17. The motor way is

under construction (EUR500m executed) and financed with subsidies (EUR614m)

and equity contributed by partners (EUR100m).

US: Sacyr is the preferred bidder for the construction of two waste treatment

plants and the contract is expected to be signed in 1Q’17. Another contract is also

under negotiations. At the moment, Sacyr is not present in construction or

concessions in the US.

Services: Favourable outlook, especially in Industrials.

Conclusion: Sacyr’s operating trend continues positive (despite construction)

which we value positively. However, our doubts are on financing the equity to be

contributed to concessions that up to year 2020 amounts to over EUR500m. The

sale of Itinere is a revenues source to consider, but not enough, considering the

expected reduction in corporate debt. We maintain our positive outlook for the

meantime.

Analyst(s):

Rafael Fernández de Heredia, GVC Gaesco Beka

[email protected]

+34 91 436 78 08

Buy

1.97


2.02



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg SCYR.MC/SCYR SM



Free float 74%









Sales (m) 2,949 2,973 3,129

EBITDA (m) 318 344 389

EBITDA margin 10.8% 11.6% 12.4%

EBIT (m) 148 230 261

EBIT margin 5.0% 7.7% 8.3%

Net Profit (adj.)(m) (227) 118 146

ROCE 5.5% 11.1% 11.1%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 4,180 4,019 4,048


Debt/EBITDA 13.1 11.7 10.4


EV/Sales 1.3 1.3 1.2

EV/EBITDA 12.3 11.2 10.0

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 12.3 11.2 10.0

EV/EBIT 26.4 16.7 14.9

P/E (adj.) nm 8.6 7.0

P/BV 0.6 0.6 0.5

OpFCF yield 3.1% 7.6% 14.6%


EPS (adj.) (0.44) 0.23 0.28

BVPS 3.20 3.38 3.61

DPS 0.05 0.05 0.05

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6


vvdsvdvsdy

SACYR Stoxx Construction & Materials (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Grupo Carceller 13%; Jose Manuel

Loureda 8%; Manuel Manrique 5%;

of 60


SIAS



SIAS (Buy) Meeting held with the company

Q3 results good and better than expected

The facts: Sias published its third quarter results on Friday before market

closing.

Our analysis: the company’s results were sizeably better than expected because

of much higher than expected margins.

Q3 15 Q3 16 y/y Q3 16e 9M 15 9M 16 y/y

Revenues 310.2 311.8 0.5% 310.0 828.5 829.8 0.2%

o/w motorways 284.2 292.7 3.0% 282.0 744.3 770.0 3.5%

EBITDA 198.5 209.2 5.4% 196.4 510.8 523.7 2.5%

EBITDA % 64.0% 67.1%

63.4% 61.7% 63.1%

Interim dividend at EUR 0.14/sh- the board approved the distribution of an interim

dividend of EUR 0.14/sh -.

Conclusion & Action: the company’s results were good and better than

expected. Buy confirmed

Analyst(s):


[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4240

Buy

7.99


11.50



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg SIS.MI/SIS IM



Free float 18%









Sales (m) 1,088 1,090 1,201

EBITDA (m) 652 642 713

EBITDA margin 59.9% 58.9% 59.3%

EBIT (m) 357 345 445

EBIT margin 32.8% 31.7% 37.0%


ROCE 5.3% 5.0% 6.4%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 1,575 1,591 1,158




EV/Sales 3.0 2.7 2.1

EV/EBITDA 5.0 4.5 3.5

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 5.0 4.5 3.5

EV/EBIT 9.1 8.4 5.6

P/E (adj.) 13.9 11.5 8.5

P/BV 1.3 1.0 0.9

OpFCF yield 0.6% 3.6% 27.3%


EPS (adj.) 0.71 0.69 0.94

BVPS 7.71 8.04 8.67

DPS 0.32 0.34 0.37

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0


vvdsvdvsdy

SIAS Stoxx Construction & Materials (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Gavio Group 73%; Lazard AM 5%;

Generali Group 4%;

of 60


Trevi



Trevi (Accumulate) Q3 results good and better than expected

Oil & gas division expected to hit Q3 results

The facts: Trevi is publishing its third quarter results on November 14th

.-

Our analysis: we summarize our preview in the following table:

Q3 15 Q3 16e Y/Y 9M 15 9M 16e Y/Y

Revenues 355.2 276.6 -22.1% 956.3 795.9 -16.8%

Value of production 363.5 295.6

991.0 853.5

EBITDA 32.8 30.3 -7.9% -15.9 92.6 nm


-1.7% 11.6%

EBIT 15.9 13.0

-88.6 38.6 nm


-9.3% 4.8%

EBT 0.0 8.0 nm -124.4 2.3 nm

Net profit -3.3 6.1 nm -131.4 -17.1 nm


We expect the company’s results to be negatively affected by the performance og

the oil&gas division with revenues down almost 65% y/y in Q3.

Conclusion & Action: the company has been hit by the plunge in oil prices; the

visibility on the oil & gas sector remains low. However the present stock price

barely discounts any recovery in this division.

Analyst(s):


[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4240

Accumulate

1.38


2.00



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg TFI.MI/TFI IM



Free float 50%









Sales (m) 1,342 1,136 1,485

EBITDA (m) 9 112 136


EBIT (m) (88) 38 63

EBIT margin nm 3.3% 4.2%

Net Profit (adj.)(m) (115) (6) 23

ROCE -6.4% 2.7% 4.7%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 419 439 379




EV/Sales 0.6 0.7 0.5

EV/EBITDA 90.3 6.6 5.1

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 90.3 6.6 5.1

EV/EBIT nm 19.7 11.1


P/BV 0.5 0.4 0.4

OpFCF yield 17.8% 0.5% 26.6%


EPS (adj.) (0.70) (0.04) 0.14

BVPS 3.43 3.26 3.40

DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0


vvdsvdvsdy

TREVI FTSE Italy All Share (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Trevi family 33%; FSI 17%;

of 60


Spanish Media

Analyser

MEDIA

Oil & gas division expected to hit Q3 results SPAIN: The EU endorses the RTVE finance model

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The fats: The EU’ Court of Justice found against the appeal presented by

Canal+DTS (2014) which questions RTVE’s financial system.

Our analysis: With this sentence, and for the 3rd

time, finds in favour of

RTVE’s financial system in which advertising was eliminated from the public TV

chain in exchange for FTA, pay TV and telco groups contributing a fee. In

addition, the EU stated that if said contributions did not suffice to cover RTVE’s

costs it is the State that should cover the difference.

We recall that in 2010 the financial model for RTVE was approved, in which the

government set the rates for telco/audio-visual operators (3% revenues for FTA

TV providers, 1.5% pay-TV and 0.9% gross operating revenues for telco

operators) to finance the public chain’s activity and thus eliminating advertising.

This model was chosen, and leaving aside (for the moment) a possible fee on

behalf of citizens, as Spain is one of the few countries in the EU that does not

do so.

Consequently, RTBE cannot broadcast publicity except for self-

promotion, institutional communications, electoral campaigns, social

character campaigns, and for example sponsors for sports events, but

cannot charge a fee. In addition the possibility of RTVE broadcasting a pay TV

theme channel has been eliminated.

Conclusion: Positive news continues for free-to-air operators (A3M/MSE).

Although the CNMC urged a change in the finance model due to the low

predictability of revenues, the entity used obsolete 2014 data when the deficit

was much higher.

In our opinion, the problem of refinancing RTVE is not the revenues but the

costs.

In addition, with the new Single Digital Market, the OTTS acquire the same

obligations as are audiovisual groups and thus RTVE would receive additional

revenues.

---------- Stoxx Media,


Analyst(s):

Eduardo Garcia Arguelles, GVC Gaesco Beka

[email protected]

+34 914 367 810

of 60


Lagardère

France/Media Analyser

MEDIA

Lagardère (Accumulate) SPAIN: The EU endorses the RTVE finance model

Post Q3 revenues: confirmation of FY guidance

The facts: No major information was disclosed at the Q3 conference call on

Thursday.

Our analysis: 1) Publishing: the Q3 figure (+10.9%) should not be extrapolated

as it was helped by the renewal of school programmes in France and the success

of the new Harry Potter in the UK; Q4 will face high comps (Q4-15: +9.2%),

chiefly thanks to Astérix; 2) Active: Q4 looks to be worse than Q3 (-3.1% over 9M)

in publicity; the group thus reiterated its guidance of -4-5% y-o-y; 3) Travel Retail:

the pace of growth continues to slow but remained high in Q3 (+5.7%), despite

the challenging environment in France and the deterioration of the Chinese

travellers mix, which was more than offset by the development of networks and

new services (food service); Q4 should carry on the Q3 trend; 4) Distribution: the

Belgian and Canadian subsidiaries are expected to be sold by year-end for an

estimated EUR70m; the last country, Hungary (revenues of roughly EUR150m) is

more difficult to sell; 4) guidance of EBIT growth on a comparable basis ‘slightly

higher than 10%’ was confirmed; we maintain our forecast of +13%

(EUR403mE).

Conclusion & Action: We expect the group to publish FY results well within

guidance. IV adjusted from EUR23 to EUR24 to take into account the solid trend

in Travel Retail (30% of operating assets).

Analyst(s):

Eric Ravary, CM - CIC Market Solutions

[email protected]

+33 1 53 48 80 71

Accumulate

23.13


24.00



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg LAGA.PA/MMB FP



Free float 87%









Sales (m) 7,193 7,373 7,121

EBITDA (m) 501 515 575


EBIT (m) 165 303 370

EBIT margin 2.3% 4.1% 5.2%


ROCE 4.5% 6.4% 6.6%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 1,551 1,503 1,500




EV/Sales 0.7 0.6 0.6

EV/EBITDA 9.9 8.5 7.6

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 8.0 7.1 7.0

EV/EBIT 30.0 14.5 11.9

P/E (adj.) 21.3 18.2 14.5

P/BV 1.8 1.5 1.5

OpFCF yield 9.3% 2.9% 5.9%


EPS (adj.) 1.29 1.27 1.60

BVPS 14.87 14.94 15.38

DPS 1.30 1.30 1.30

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vvdsvdvsdy

LAGARDERE Stoxx Media (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: LCM 8%; Employees' Mutual Funds 3%;

Treasury stock 1.77%;

of 60


Technip

France/Oil Services Analyser

OIL SERVICES

Technip (Buy) Post Q3 revenues: confirmation of FY guidance

Confirmation of the acceleration in draft-design studies

The facts: In a meeting with sell-side analysts as part of the roadshow linked to

their merger project, the CEOs of Technip and FMC, Mr Pilenko and Mr

Pferdehirt, reviewed the progress of the project and trends in market conditions.

Our analysis: While Technip and FMC have received most of the necessary

antitrust approvals – the only missing ones are the EU and Brazil, which last year

approved the creation of the Forsys joint venture (Brazil’s authorisation is not a

blocking point) – the two MDs have highlighted the acceleration in clients’

interests to develop integrated projects. The Forsys joint venture won three FEED

contracts (Front end engineering) during its eight months of existence, then

thirteen during the next eight, and four in the last four weeks. A FEED contract

was converted into an integrated contract. Furthermore, Technip and FMC are

well positioned for the ambitious Mad Dog 2 project (BP). Both responded to the

call for tender separately (fourth bid for FMC which won the first three times, third

for Technip). Moreover, out of the 20 largest market projects, none was in the call

for tender phase one year ago. There are currently eight, and some are in the

tender response process.

Clients are changing their stance and are switching from specific designs for each

operator to Vendor Based Solutions, which factor in their many experiences in

field development. Operators favour rapid payback developments:

Interconnections between fields that have been recently discovered or not with

existing production infrastructures. These are not necessarily small projects; for

example, Trestakk, awarded by STL to Technip and FMC last week: over

USD600m of which ~USD200m for TECFMC. The solidity of the balance sheet is

also an advantage. Technip was selected for a project over two cheaper

competitors.

Conclusion & Action: The reassuring messages continue to support confidence

in the outlook on Technip FMC.

Analyst(s):

Jean-Luc Romain, CM - CIC Market Solutions

[email protected]

+33 1 53 48 80 66

Buy

62.93


67.00



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg TECF.PA/TEC FP



Free float 85%









Sales (m) 12,209 11,193 10,368

EBITDA (m) 627 1,191 1,205


EBIT (m) 331 900 921

EBIT margin 2.7% 8.0% 8.9%


ROCE 2.5% 14.9% 15.3%

Net debt/(cash) (m) (24) (356) (697)

Net Debt/Equity 0.0 -0.1 -0.1

Debt/EBITDA 0.0 -0.3 -0.6


EV/Sales 0.4 0.6 0.7

EV/EBITDA 8.6 6.1 5.7

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 8.6 6.1 5.7

EV/EBIT 16.3 8.1 7.5

P/E (adj.) 10.2 14.0 13.4

P/BV 1.4 1.8 1.7

OpFCF yield 9.9% 7.5% 7.8%


EPS (adj.) 4.46 4.51 4.69

BVPS 33.20 35.60 38.09

DPS 2.10 2.21 2.32

35

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60

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vvdsvdvsdy

TECHNIP CAC 40 (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Oppenheimer Funds 5%; ING Group NV

5%; Employees 1.90%; Treasury stock

3%;

of 60


Salvatore Ferragamo

Italy/Personal Goods Analyser

PERSONAL GOODS

Salvatore Ferragamo (Accumulate) Confirmation of the acceleration in draft-design studies

Ferragamo: 9M 16 results preview

The facts: Ferragamo is due to publish its 9M 16 results on Monday November

14th

after market closure. A conf. call will follow @ 6:00 pm CET (ITALY: +39 023

0350 9005; UK: +44 (0)207 1620 177; USA: +1 646 934 6795).

Our analysis: We remind readers that the conference call will be held by Mr.

Greco and by Mr. Eraldo Poletto, recently appointed company’s CEO.

According to our estimates, there should have been an improvement in the top

line in Q3 16 (+1% increase). We forecasts profitability improvements thanks to

gross profit increase, and operating costs containment (excluding approx. EUR 3

/ 4 m one-off, we estimate EBITDA margin up 80 bps in 9M 16E Y/Y).

Ferragamo: 9M 16 results preview

EUR m Q3 15 Q3 16E Y/Y Chg. 9M 15 9M 16E Y/Y Chg.

Europe 86.2 78.0 -9.4% 281.7 267.0 -5.2%

North America 70.2 73.5 4.6% 234.7 241.0 2.7%

Japan 31.8 27.1 -14.7% 94.3 90.7 -3.8%

Asia Pacific 95.3 105.3 10.5% 361.0 361.0 0.0%

Latam 15.1 17.6 16.2% 49.4 52.1 5.5%

Total revenues 298.7 301.6 1.0% 1,021.0 1,011.7 -0.9%

Wholesale 98.9 86.9 -12.1% 371.5 355.8 -4.2%

Retail 193.6 208.4 7.7% 631.7 638.1 1.0%

Licences 3.0 3.0 0.5% 8.2 8.2 -0.5%

Rental Income 3.2 3.2 0.2% 9.7 9.7 0.2%

Total revenues 298.7 301.6 1.0% 1,021.0 1,011.7 -0.9%

Gross Profit 196.9 202.3 2.8% 672.1 677.9 0.9%

% on sales 65.9% 67.1%

65.8% 67.0%

EBITDA 53.0 54.1 2.1% 217.6 220.2 1.2%

% on sales 17.7% 17.9%

21.3% 21.8%

Operating profit 38.1 38.1 0.1% 173.6 173.6 0.0%

% on sales 12.7% 12.6%

17.0% 17.2%

Profit/(loss) - group 24.1 24.2 0.4% 112.3 114.5 2.0%


Conclusion & Action: All in all, excluding the one-off costs, we expect a decent

improvement in EBITDA margin. We welcome the appointment of Mr. Poletto as

a new CEO and we confirm our Accumulate.

Analyst(s):


[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4092

Accumulate

21.99


22.60



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg SFER.MI/SFER IM



Free float 25%









Sales (m) 1,430 1,449 1,514

EBITDA (m) 324 334 367

EBITDA margin 22.7% 23.1% 24.2%

EBIT (m) 265 269 299

EBIT margin 18.5% 18.6% 19.7%


ROCE 30.5% 31.2% 31.1%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 10 (46) (130)

Net Debt/Equity 0.0 -0.1 -0.2

Debt/EBITDA 0.0 -0.1 -0.4


EV/Sales 2.8 2.7 2.5

EV/EBITDA 12.2 11.7 10.4

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 12.2 11.7 10.4

EV/EBIT 15.0 14.6 12.8

P/E (adj.) 21.2 21.4 18.5

P/BV 6.5 5.6 4.8

OpFCF yield 3.4% 3.6% 4.6%


EPS (adj.) 1.02 1.03 1.19

BVPS 3.34 3.91 4.59

DPS 0.46 0.51 0.58

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SALVATORE FERRAGAMO Stoxx Personal Goods (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Ferragamo Finanziaria 58%; Ferragamo

Family 11%; Majestic Honour - Peter

Woo 6%;

of 60


ADLER Real Estate

Germany/Real Estate Analyser

REAL ESTATE

ADLER Real Estate (Buy) Ferragamo: 9M 16 results preview

Q3 results in line with expectations on FFO I level

The facts: On a FFO I level Q3 results were fully in line with expectations. On a

net profit level Q3 results were with EUR 67m well above our forecast due to

higher than expected earnings from the sale of properties and higher than

forecasted valuation effects. Therefore LtV declined by 5%-pts. qoq to 62%.

Our analysis:

Conclusion & Action: On a FFO I level results were fully in line with our

forecast. Hence, we confirm our Buy rating with a target price of EUR 16.00.

Analyst(s):


[email protected]

+49 69 58997 414

Buy

12.97


16.00



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg ADLG.DE/ADL GY



Free float 49%









Gross Rental Income (m) 132 164 182

EBITDA (m) 94 81 102

EBITDA margin 70.1% 48.5% 55.0%

Portfolio Result (m) 82 74 70

Net Financial Result (80) (94) (88)


Funds From Operations 16 24 44

EPS (adj.) 1.56 0.78 1.10

DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

IFRS NAVPS 12.68 13.51 14.67

EPRA NAVPS 15.50 16.33 17.48

Premium/(Discount) 12.2% (4.0%) (11.6%)

DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

Earnings adj. yield 12.0% 6.0% 8.5%


EV/EBITDA 29.2 35.6 31.2

P/E (adj.) 9.1 16.6 11.7

Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin.int) 1.2 0.8 1.1

Net debt/(cash) (m) 2,093 2,281 2,580

Net Debt/Total Assets 68.3% 72.8% 81.1%

10.0

10.5

11.0

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12.0

12.5

13.0

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14.0

14.5

15.0


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ADLER REAL ESTATE CDAX (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Klaus Wecken 23%; Mezzanine IX

Investors S.A. 22%; Thomas Bergander

7%;

ADLER Real Estate - Q3 2016

EUR m Q3 2016 Q3 2016e (eq) Q3 2015 yoy Consensus delta

Earnings from prop. Lettings 30.3 31.0 26.8 13% na

of which gross rental income 41.8 42.0 45.9 -9% na

Earn. from the sale of prop. 17.5 18.2 2.4 637% na

EBIT 133.5 43.5 30.0 345% na

Net Profit 60.5 12.3 2.5 2331% na

FFO I 6.7 6.5 3.6 84% na

Sources: ADLER Real Estate, equinet Research

of 60


Hispania Activos Inmobiliarios

Spain/Real Estate Analyser

REAL ESTATE

Hispania Activos Inmobiliarios (Buy) Q3 results in line with expectations on FFO I level

9m’16 results: good operating momentum

The facts: Hispania released 9m’16 results. EPRA NAV grew 4.7%

(EUR12.24/sh vs. EUR11.69 Dec’15). All P&L lines grew substantially due to the

acquisitions realised and organic growth.

Our analysis Sales reached EUR100m, NOI EUR77m and net profit EUR136m.

The annualised NOI increased to EUR101m (excluding hotels under management

and repositioned assets), above our estimated EUR97.7m. The majority of the

activity proceeds from hotels where the operating lines have evolved very

positively. In hotels with fixed and variable yields, revpar increases 18.5% and in

Canary Islands 20.5%. EBITDAR in Bay and Atlantis reached 21%.

In offices occupancy continued to improve (84% vs. 77% Dec’15) and the

average rent 7%. Residentials: the new rents on refurbished assets are higher

than before changes: +74% in Isla del Cielo and +31% in Sanchinarro, the

average rent increases 7.9% vs. 2015 and occupancy drops from 86% to 82%

9m’16.

Net debt rises to EUR281m which implies net LTV 16%.

Operating CF increases to EUR37.4m vs. EUR4.6m 1H’16. The adjusted FFO

comes to EUR32.6m vs. EUR20.8m 1H’16.

GAV increased 18.1% (EUR1,684m vs. EUR1,425m Dec’15) due to the new

investments +8%), capex (2.3%) and revaluation of assets (8%).

Conclusion: Good results, leaning mainly on organic growth which overflows to

all products. Positive outlook maintained.

Analyst(s):

Rafael Fernández de Heredia, GVC Gaesco Beka

[email protected]

+34 91 436 78 08

Buy

10.20


14.08



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg HIS.MC/HIS SM



Free float 42%









Gross Rental Income (m) 38 117 133

EBITDA (m) 10 78 95

EBITDA margin 25.9% 66.6% 71.3%

Portfolio Result (m) 78 221 238

Net Financial Result (4) (16) (17)

Net Profit (adj.)(m) (12) 62 78

Funds From Operations 7 62 78

EPS (adj.) -0.17 0.65 0.72

DPS 0.00 0.37 0.41

IFRS NAVPS 12.33 14.22 16.53

EPRA NAVPS 11.69 12.50 15.07

Premium/(Discount) (1.0%) (28.3%) (38.3%)

DPS 0.00 0.37 0.41

Earnings adj. yield nm 6.4% 7.1%


EV/EBITDA 142.4 20.0 17.5

P/E (adj.) nm 15.7 14.1

Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin.int) 2.3 4.9 5.7

Net debt/(cash) (m) 339 290 375

Net Debt/Total Assets 19.7% 13.5% 14.9%

9M15 9M16 %

Hotels 7.7 81.7 961.7%

Offices 8.6 13.8 59.9%

Residential 3.3 4.7 42.0%

SALES 19.6 100.1 411.2%

9M15 9M16 %

Hotels 3.5 63.5 1694.7%

Offices 6.7 10.9 62.9%

Residential 2.4 3.1 31.5%

NOI 12.6 77.5 514.5%

ACCOUNT 9M15 9M16 %

Costs -10.8 -15.2 40.6%

EBITDA 1.8 62.3 -

Financial result -1.7 -15.8 843.2%

Other 14.4 111.9 -

Taxes -1.3 -1.9 46.2%

Minoritaries -0.4 -19.7 -

Net Income 12.9 136.7 959.8%

Source: Hispania

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5


vvdsvdvsdy

HISPANIA ACTIVOS INMOBILIARIOS IGBM (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Soros 17%; Paulson 10%; FMR 10%;

Other 22%;

of 60


Exprivia

Italy/Software & Computer Services Analyser


Exprivia (Accumulate) 9m’16 results: good operating momentum

9m 2016 Post: back to growth with ACS, higher debt

The facts: publication of Q3 2016 results.

Our analysis: Q3 results were broadly in line/better than our estimates on

revenues and EBITDA, while the net debt position was higher than expected. The

top-line was back to growth in the quarter thanks to the contribution of ACS

(completed on June 23) which added EUR 2.5m, along with EUR 0.7m to the

EBITDA line. We note that the underlying trend was in any case improving with

around 3% organic revenue decline, vs. -8% in the first half. The results were still

affected by delays in the BPO segment and a decline in the international unit (still

down by above 20% Y/Y in Q3). On the positive, the finance segment was up by

6% in Q3, the industry segment by 4.7%. We note the higher than expected net

debt, increased by EUR 9.6m in the quarter and was due to EUR 12.4m net

investments in the period, partly related to the impact of ACS (c EUR 4/5m) and

partly to seasonal net working capital dynamics, this year not offset by the

utilization of factoring, in our view.

Exprivia 9m 2016 results (EUR m)

Q3 15 Q3 16e Q3 16a Y/Y 9M 15 9M 16a Y/Y

Sales Revenues 31.7 33.5 32.9 3.5% 102.2 98.6 -3.5%

Total Turnover 32.5 34.5 34.1 4.9% 106.1 101.7 -4.1%

EBITDA 3.13 4.00 4.27 36.3% 10.03 8.31 -17.1%

Margin 9.6% 11.6% 12.5% 2.9% 9.5% 8.2% -1.3%

EBIT 2.05 2.70 2.98 45.2% 5.88 4.90 -16.5%

Margin 6.3% 6.9% 8.7% 2.4% 5.5% 4.8% -0.7%

EBT 1.47 2.00 2.27 54.0% 4.07 2.80 -31.1%

Net Income 0.59 1.15 1.37 131% 1.89 2.08 10.6%

Net Debt (Cash) 31.2 33.0 41.0 31.4% 31.2 41.0 31.4%

Source: Company data, BANCA AKROS estimates

Outlook: H2 2016 benefits from the full consolidation of ACS into the group

perimeter; the company said that it now expects for the year a decline in revenues

and stability in margins. We cut our estimates for 2016 by 2.7% and 3.3% on

revenues and EBITDA respectively, while on 2017/18 the cut is by 4/4.5% and

2.5/3%, assuming slower growth but better margins.

M&A. A key point in the investment case is represented by the negotiations with

Italtel for an acquisition, a deal which would radically change the size and scope

of the group. The company has set a new deadline by the end of November.

Conclusion & Action: Neutral set of results, limited estimates revision. We keep

a positive view on the stock.

Analyst(s):

Andrea Devita, CFA, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4031

Accumulate

0.64


0.81



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg XPR.MI/XPR IM



Free float 43%









Sales (m) 145 145 156

EBITDA (m) 15 15 17

EBITDA margin 10.6% 10.1% 11.0%

EBIT (m) 10 9 11

EBIT margin 6.9% 6.3% 7.3%


ROCE 5.4% 4.9% 6.1%





EV/Sales 0.6 0.6 0.5

EV/EBITDA 6.1 5.9 4.8

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 6.1 5.9 4.8

EV/EBIT 9.3 9.5 7.2

P/E (adj.) 8.7 12.2 7.0

P/BV 0.5 0.4 0.4

OpFCF yield -1.3% 8.4% 17.3%


EPS (adj.) 0.09 0.05 0.09

BVPS 1.43 1.46 1.54

DPS 0.03 0.02 0.01

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85


vvdsvdvsdy

EXPRIVIA FTSE Italy SmallCaps (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Abaco Spa 49%; Merula Srl 5%; Data

Management Spa 2%; Own Shares

1.83%;

of 60


TomTom

Netherlands/Software & Computer Services Analyser


TomTom (Buy) 9m 2016 Post: back to growth with ACS, higher debt Buy

7.92


10.00



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg TOM2.AS/TOM2 NA



Free float 56%









Sales (m) 1,007 1,003 1,033

EBITDA (m) 124 138 154

EBITDA margin 12.3% 13.8% 14.9%

EBIT (m) 1 14 27

EBIT margin 0.1% 1.4% 2.6%


ROCE 0.0% 1.0% 1.8%

Net debt/(cash) (m) (99) (92) (106)


Debt/EBITDA -0.8 -0.7 -0.7


EV/Sales 2.6 1.7 1.7

EV/EBITDA 20.8 12.6 11.2

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 20.8 12.6 11.2

EV/EBIT nm nm 63.6

P/E (adj.) nm 43.4 34.8

P/BV 2.7 1.9 1.9

OpFCF yield 0.4% 1.1% 2.1%


EPS (adj.) 0.21 0.18 0.23

BVPS 4.23 4.17 4.17

DPS 0.00 0.12 0.11

Technology Day feedback – a positive afternoon

The facts: Last Friday, TomTom organised a technology day for some 70

investors, analysts and media. Presentations were given by CEO Goddijn, board

member Alain de Taeye (Maps), Antoine Saucier (Automotive), Willem Strijbosch

(Autonomous driving) and Harold Schmidt (Telematics). As part of his

presentation, CEO Goddijn provided FY20 guidance for Telematics, Licensing

and Automotive combined, stating that revenue of the 3 divisions would grow with

a CAGR of 15%. Other key subjects were the competitive advantage versus Here,

operational leverage and the US OEMs as targets for Automotive.

Our analysis: It is positive that TomTom has provided some guidance beyond

the next year, which is what the company traditionally provides. Having said that,

the 15% CAGR is more or less in line with consensus (we are at 15.9%).

Nevertheless, the guidance does show that (assuming very modest growth for

Licensing and around 10-12% organic growth for Telematics) Automotive revenue

is set to grow substantially. This was reiterated to a large extent by CEO Goddijn

who stated that automotive revenue growth for FY17 and FY18 was “pretty much

in the bag”. All in all, Automotive revenue should therefore increase from EUR

127m in FY16 to around EUR 380m in FY20. Given a gross margin of around

70%, TomTom will see operational leverage kicking in even if more opex will be

added to be able to properly service all the OEMs and Tier1 and even if more

map database costs will be allocated to Automotive (allocation is based on

revenue development as well so if Consumer declines and Automotive grows,

more costs will be allocated to Automotive). So implicitly, the revenue guidance

also provides insight into the question on operational leverage.

With regards to Here and its technology, board member de Taeye explained that

Here still uses batch processing (albeit at a very high frequency) to refresh and

update maps. That is still possible in today’s markets but Here will have to go to

transactional map making (which is TomTom’s methodology) if it wants to

compete in the (semi) autonomous driving markets where updates must be made

available every hour or even faster. De Taeye also indicated that if Here were to

have unlimited funds available, it could replicate TomTom’s processes and

products within a 3 year time frame but that a chance of a failure is also a

possibility. De Taeye admitted that TomTom (TeleAtlas) only got it right the 3rd

time around. TomTom will continue to work on automating its map updating

process and that it expects the effectivity of that process to improve “not by

percentages but by orders of magnitude”. That also bodes well for operational

leverage going forward.

On the subject of winning clients like Ford and GM, Antoine Soucier answered

that the TomTom brand is not as strong in North America as it is in Europe.

During a break he added that TomTom’s Traffic service does not provide the

same strategic advantage in the US as it does in Europe because there are very

viable alternatives in the North American market. However, as dual sourcing is

the standard, he continues to expect that TomTom will eventually win contracts

from both players (Ford and GM are 100% Here clients). It is a “matter of time”.

When questioned about the future of Consumer within TomTom, CEO Goddijn

reiterated that the division remains important. Our take is that any speculation

about an equity carve out and sale is unrealistic.

Conclusion & Action: A positive afternoon with guidance that not only shows

confidence about Automotive and Telematics but also implies operational

leverage. We retain our positive stance but do expect FY17 to finally show the

anticipated operational leverage.

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13


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TOMTOM EuroNext (Rebased)Source: Factset Shareholders: H.Goddijn 11%; C.Goddijn 11%; P.F.

Pauwels 11%; P.Geelen 11%;

Analyst(s):

Martijn den Drijver, NIBC Markets N.V.

[email protected]

+312 0 5508636

of 60


Cellnex Telecom

Spain/Support Services Analyser

SUPPORT SERVICES

Cellnex Telecom (Buy) Technology Day feedback – a positive afternoon

Excessive and unjustified fall

The facts: Cellnex’ shares have fallen 10% in the last week.

Our analysis: Having spoken to the Company, there are no reasons justifying the

negative performance. CLNX accumulates -25.9% YTD.

The main risks in CLNX would be:

Falling market share in DTT technology (78.2% 9m’16, -0.5pp Y/Y)

associated to TV consumption in favour of IPTV (7.1% 9m’16, +0.4pp

Y/Y). This aspect was considered by the Company and is precisely one of the

reasons why CLNX began to diversify towards mobile board band

infrastructures.

Interest rate hikes in Europe. In our opinion, these could begin to rise as

from 2018e, but with limited effects on CLNX’ debt as the majority is at a set

rate (96% thanks to the latest refinancing via bonds issue).

Merger of European operators. In this case, the risk resides in single-

handedly dismantling existing duplicities in infrastructures, not allowing CLNX

to participate and reporting these as integration synergies. In addition, CLNX

will also lose a potential client in each merger as the number of MROs

reduces.

High multiples in its acquisitions policy. Although some of the recent

acquisitions (Shere/Bouygues) the implicit EVEBITDA was around 16x, in our

opinion, it is backed by the high sharing ration, cash transformation, accretive

as from Year 1; strategic importance in portfolios, greater deleveraging

capacity and double digit IRRS (estimating 13-15%).

Conclusion: The risk/yield ratio is very attractive and is a clear opportunity

to buy at current trading levels.

Either way, the falls were general in the sector (as included in the table) since

Donald Trump was elected president of the US. The market discounts a possible

acceleration in interest rate hikes and this fact will affect CLNX’ main US peers:

American Towers/SBA Communications/Crown Castle. In our opinion, an

unjustified contagion effect has ocurred.

Analyst(s):


[email protected]

+34 914 367 810

Buy

12.77


19.60



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg CLNX.MC/CLNX SM



Free float 52%









Sales (m) 612 717 794

EBITDA (m) 235 304 348

EBITDA margin 38.4% 42.4% 43.8%

EBIT (m) 81 136 175

EBIT margin 13.3% 18.9% 22.1%


ROCE 3.5% 4.9% 6.3%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 927 1,363 1,136




EV/Sales 8.0 6.0 5.2

EV/EBITDA 20.9 14.2 11.8

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 20.9 14.2 11.8

EV/EBIT 60.4 31.9 23.3

P/E (adj.) nm 34.6 25.1

P/BV 8.8 5.5 4.5

OpFCF yield 3.9% 6.2% 7.4%


EPS (adj.) 0.20 0.37 0.51

BVPS 1.96 2.33 2.84

DPS 0.09 0.18 0.19

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18


vvdsvdvsdy

CELLNEX TELECOM IBEX 35 (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Abertis 34%; Threadneedle 8%;

Blackrock 6%;

of 60


Edenred

France/Support Services Analyser

SUPPORT SERVICES

Edenred (Buy) Excessive and unjustified fall

Roadshow feedback: compelling growth prospects

The facts: We highlight certain key points regarding strategy, following a post

Investor Day roadshow with Edenred.

Our analysis: It will be difficult to quantify the impact of the US elections on

business, which is not very exposed to the US, but well settled in Mexico. Even

though it is local, activity will be impacted by the trend in the Mexican peso, which

has lost 12% since 9 November (+/-5% +/-EUR1.5m EBIT15).

Employee Benefits: The plan provides for single-digit revenue growth driven

by a still underpenetrated market, but also by digitalisation of the offer, which

will help: 1) extend the addressable market; 2) improve pricing; 3) increase the

value proposed to affiliates with catchment area data analysis; and 4) increase

stickiness of the offer. In our view, Edenred could expand 3-5% in France, a

fairly mature market. The Brazilian situation and business appear to be

stabilising. The unemployment rate has to contract however (not until H2-17) for

activity to rebound.

Expense management: revenue growth set to be higher than 10%. Edenred is

settled in Brazil with Embratec, and the group is likely to step up diversification

in Europe by becoming the majority shareholder of UTA in early 2017. Edenred

is thus set to capitalise on UTA and LCCC (France) to extend its presence on

the Light Fleet and Heavy Fleet market. Edenred has gained its first foothold in

Asia, as it did with Fleetcore in the US a few years ago, by proposing the

software part of its card offers to oil groups ahead of outsourcing of their

management.

Corporate payments: the “bonus” to the medium-term targets at group level,

Edenred intends to integrate the payments scheme as part of B2B transactions.

Edenred will act as issuer, processor, acquirer and scheme by creating a closed

scheme that will enable it to regulate, filter, and administer the transaction and

above all create a relationship of trust between stakeholders.

Conclusion & Action: The vectors set up under this strategy are not new, but

help clarify the new management’s ambitions. New initiatives have been put in

place but remain a “bonus” to the financial targets in the Fast Forward plan,

which, in our view, are the minimum level of future performance. We maintain our

positive stance with a target price (present value) of EUR26.

Analyst(s):

Kévin Woringer, CM - CIC Market Solutions

[email protected]

+33 1 53 48 80 69

Buy

18.65


26.00



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg EDEN.PA/EDEN FP



Free float 74%









Sales (m) 1,069 1,135 1,255

EBITDA (m) 388 419 477

EBITDA margin 36.3% 36.9% 38.1%

EBIT (m) 341 368 424

EBIT margin 31.9% 32.4% 33.8%


ROCE -12.7% -13.0% -12.6%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 637 603 356




EV/Sales 4.4 4.4 3.8

EV/EBITDA 12.2 11.9 10.0

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 12.2 11.9 10.0

EV/EBIT 13.8 13.6 11.3

P/E (adj.) 20.2 20.2 17.7

P/BV nm nm nm

OpFCF yield 7.7% 10.7% 11.9%


EPS (adj.) 0.87 0.92 1.05

BVPS (6.24) (6.27) (6.20)

DPS 0.84 0.88 1.00

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22


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EDENRED SBF 120 (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Colony Capital 11%; Morgan Stanley IM

9%; Veritas AM 5%;

of 60


Openjobmetis

Italy/Support Services Analyser

SUPPORT SERVICES

Openjobmetis (Buy) Roadshow feedback: compelling growth prospects

Positive 9M 16 results

OPENJOBMETIS: 9M 16 results

9M 15a 9M 16a % Chg

Sales 321.1 330.3 +2.9%

First contribution margin 43.0 43.1 +0.4%

% margin 13.4% 13.1%

EBITDA 10.9 10.6 -2.3%

% margin 3.5% 3.2%

EBIT 7.0 8.8 +26.3%

% margin 2.3% 2.7%

Net Profit 2.4 5.4 n.m.

% margin 0.9% 1.6%


Sales acceleration in Q3: after a stable sales growth in H1 16, Q3 revenues

showed a strong improvement (+5.1% Y/Y); this acceleration allowed the group to

achieved a positive sales growth in the first nine of the year.

Despite a stable trend of First contribution margin and a slight decrease in the

EBITDA margin, 9M 16 EBIT grew by +26.3% Y/Y thanks to a strong decrease in

depreciations and amortisations.

Further strengthening of the financial position: NFP was negative by EUR

33.9m, an improvement of around EUR 9.7m compared to approximately EUR

43.5m as of 31 December 2015. This decrease is the result of both the positive

contribution of cash flows from the group’s operating activities and the working

capital dynamics.

Outlook on FY 16: the management said that sales trend remained robust in

October, so they are confident to be able to increase the contract work revenues

and to continue the development of ancillary services in the last quarter of the

year and to improve further the profitability.

Furthermore, the management confirms the focus on the continuous network

expansion through the opening of 3 new branches in Emilia Romagna.

Conclusion & Action. We maintain our positive stance on the stock and confirm

our Buy recommendation and our target price of EUR 8.60 per share (valuation

based on our DCF model - 1.2% perpetual growth rates and WACC of 7.85%).

Analyst(s):


[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4287

Buy

6.35


8.60



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg OJM.MI/OJM IM



Free float 45%







Abs. perf. 12 mth


Sales (m) 433 461 502

EBITDA (m) 15 18 21


EBIT (m) 10 15 19

EBIT margin 2.4% 3.3% 3.7%


ROCE 5.9% 6.6% 7.6%





EV/Sales 0.3 0.3 0.2

EV/EBITDA 10.0 7.4 5.9

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 8.4 7.4 5.9

EV/EBIT 14.3 8.5 6.6

P/E (adj.) 22.2 9.7 8.0

P/BV 1.5 1.2 1.0

OpFCF yield 10.3% 10.0% 8.8%


EPS (adj.) 0.33 0.66 0.79

BVPS 4.85 5.51 6.30

DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

5.4

5.6

5.8

6.0

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7.0

7.2

7.4

7.6

Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16

vvdsvdvsdy

OPENJOBMETIS FTSE Italy STAR (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: M.T.I. Investimenti 5%; Omniafin 18%;

Wise Vwnture SGR 41%; Questio Capital

SGR 9%;

of 60


Telecommunications

Analyser

TELECOMMUNICATIONS

Positive 9M 16 results Altice’s CFO argues that sport content costs will

impact consumer prices in Portugal

280

290

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

390


vvdsvdvsdy

The facts: During the presentation to analysts of the 3Q16 results, Altice’s

CFO (Dennis Okhuijsen) argued that the increase of the content costs in the

Portuguese telecom market, namely sports content, will impact consumer

prices. According to the CFO, Altice’s operating margin should not be more

hurt than the rest of the other operators since this trend should also be pursued

by them (Souce: Jornal de Negócios).

Our analysis: In our opinion this is the most probable outcome arising from the

sports content cost increase, as we argued on our previous Company Update

for NOS (“New Telecom Order” – October 2016), since these costs have a

material impact in EBITDA margin. Please bear in mind that all Portuguese

telecom operators signed a MoU in July 2016 where it was agreed to share all

the existing and future costs related with sports content. Additionally, since all

the telecom operators are shareholders of SportTV (except Altice although it is

expected that the company will also enter the capital of the company in the

short-term) and the monthly fee of SportTV is already perceived as high.

Conclusion & Action: We argue that telecom operators in Portugal will have a

strong incentive to increase and practice similar prices for its base bundles in

order to accommodate the negative effect in terms of EBITDA related with the

increase of the sports content costs.

---------- Stoxx Telecommunications,


Analyst(s):

Artur Amaro Caixa-Banco de Investimento

[email protected]

+351 213 89 6822

of 60


Euskaltel

Spain/Telecommunications Analyser

TELECOMMUNICATIONS

Euskaltel (Buy) Altice’s CFO argues that sport content costs will impact consumer prices in Portugal

Investments increasing…

The facts: Some investors and the new CEO recently took positions in the

company.

Our analysis: 40 North Latitude acquired 1% capital. Other shareholders also

increased stakes such as Bestinver, UBS (9%) and Artemis (5%).

The CEO also acquired 5,000 shares at EUR9.05/sh thus is the second

manager behind Albert Garcia Erauzkin who holds 0.235% capital.

Conclusion: The operator was listed at EUR12/share and has performed

negatively on the market (-27.2% YTD) partially due to the sector and also

unstable management since the unexpected exit of the previous CEO. Short

positions reached 3.43% capital at the end of October. However, this scenario is

an opportunity to buy shares at current prices.

We lean on the following aspects: 1) important cash generation (c. 8% FCF

yield 2016e) and high margins (EIBTDA mg 48.6% 2016e), synergies arising

from the acquisition of R in the ramp-up period mainly in 4Q’16/2017,

attractive dividend policy and positive impressions from the meeting with

the new CEO (focus on value generation for shareholders, advance in

convergence and boosting n-play service sales while maintaining capex under

control).

Analyst(s):


[email protected]

+34 914 367 810

Buy

8.43


12.00



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg EKT.MC/EKT SM



Free float 61%









Sales (m) 327 570 580

EBITDA (m) 143 277 290

EBITDA margin 43.6% 48.6% 50.0%

EBIT (m) 64 154 169

EBIT margin 19.5% 26.9% 29.2%


ROCE 2.3% 5.5% 5.8%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 1,358 1,238 1,132




EV/Sales 9.0 4.2 4.1

EV/EBITDA 20.7 8.7 8.1

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 20.7 8.7 8.1

EV/EBIT 46.2 15.7 13.9

P/E (adj.) nm 13.9 12.1

P/BV 2.1 1.4 1.1

OpFCF yield 5.6% 8.0% 8.3%


EPS (adj.) 0.05 0.61 0.70

BVPS 5.56 6.16 7.39

DPS 0.00 0.00 0.55

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0


vvdsvdvsdy

EUSKALTEL Stoxx Telecommunications (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Kutxabank 25%; Corp. Financ. Alba 10%;

JP Morgan Chase 4%;

of 60


Telecom Italia

Italy/Telecommunications Analyser

TELECOMMUNICATIONS

Telecom Italia (Accumulate) Investments increasing…

Conversion of EUR 1.3bn bond

The facts: TI announced the terms of the conversion for the EUR 1.3bn

mandatory convertible bond issued three years ago which matures tomorrow. The

average price calculated between October 13 and November 10 was EUR 0.7634

(vs. a range of EUR 0.6801/0.8331), so that the company will issue 1,703m new

ordinary shares.

Our analysis: the new shares represent 11.2% of the previous ordinary capital,

8% on a fully diluted basis. Net debt will decline from EUR 26.7bn to EUR 25.4bn,

implying 3.1 times the adj EBITDA FY 2016e. The stake of Vivendi will be diluted

from the current 24.6% to around 22%.

Conclusion & Action: The impact on valuation based on our target price is

around EUR 3c. The impact on debt was obviously anticipated in the credit

market and by rating agencies. We would expect Vivendi to increase its stake

back to the original level close to the threshold of 25%.

Analyst(s):

Andrea Devita, CFA, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4031

Accumulate

0.71


1.15



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg TLIT.MI/TIT IM



Free float 65%









Sales (m) 19,718 18,836 18,382

EBITDA (m) 7,004 8,058 8,059

EBITDA margin 35.5% 42.8% 43.8%

EBIT (m) 2,962 3,730 3,681

EBIT margin 15.0% 19.8% 20.0%

Net Profit (adj.)(m) 774 1,685 1,235

ROCE 5.6% 5.2% 5.0%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 28,475 27,567 27,468




EV/Sales 2.7 2.3 2.4

EV/EBITDA 7.6 5.4 5.4

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 6.6 5.4 5.4

EV/EBIT 17.9 11.7 11.9

P/E (adj.) 29.5 8.2 11.2

P/BV 1.3 0.7 0.7

OpFCF yield -4.5% 4.6% 2.2%


EPS (adj.) 0.04 0.09 0.06

BVPS 0.91 0.98 1.04

DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30


vvdsvdvsdy

TELECOM ITALIA Stoxx Telecommunications (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: Vivendi 25%; brandes 2%; Findim 2.00%;

Blackrock 6%;

of 60


Snam

Italy/Utilities Analyser

UTILITIES

Snam (Accumulate) Conversion of EUR 1.3bn bond

We expect a declining set of figures in 9M 2016 Y/Y

The facts: Snam is unveiling its 9M 16 results tomorrow, before market opening.

Our analysis: the company ought to post declining results YoY:

EUR m 9M 15A 9M 16E Y/Y

Gas injected into the network (bcm) 49.9 51.4 3.0%

Total sales 2,748 2,586 -5.9%

EBITDA 2,108 1,968 -6.6%


EBIT 1,472 1293 -12.2%


Pre-tax profit 1,292 1126 -12.8%

Net profit 888 786 -11.5%


The volumes of gas injected into the network ought to be up by around 3%

YoY. It is worth noting that the gas demand was up by around 1.4% in 9M 16

YoY. In fact, consumptions recorded for thermoelectric uses were up by nearly

6%, residential were down by around 4%, while industrial demand was up YoY

(+3%). The difference between the gas demand and the gas transported is due to

the inflows from the storage sites. We remind readers that the inflows act

positively on the volumes transported. The inflows were around 3bcm in 9M 16,

while they were roughly 2.2bcm in 9M 2015.

Revenues. The decrease we expect in revenues is mainly due to the regulatory

review, which lowered the allowed return. Based on our estimates, this ought to

impact for around EUR 110m. The remaining around EUR 52m difference in

terms of revenues we estimated is due to lower pass-through (EUR 36m lower)

and non-regulated revenues (EUR 16m lower). Pass-through revenues ought to

be around EUR 82m vs. EUR 118m in H1 15.

Costs. Snam ought to be affected by higher costs YoY (in relative terms) related

to the movements of the risk and provisions funds (there was a release from the

fund for roughly EUR 15m in 9M 15; we expect this to be restored in 9M 16 and

thus the total impact ought to be a nearly EUR 30m impact in terms of costs YoY)

and to the one-off cost for the Italgas demerger. This explains the decrease in

EBITDA margin.

EBIT. At an EBIT level, we expect a reduction YoY as a consequence of higher

D&A (EUR 675m in 9M 2016 vs. EUR 636m in H1 2015).

Financial charges and NFP. Financial charges should be nearly EUR 258m,

EUR 277m in 9M 2015. The decrease is mainly due to the debt optimisation

process the company is successfully carrying on. Snam ought to post a net debt

of around EUR 14.0bn vs. EUR 14.2bn recorded as at the end of H1 2016. Based

on our estimates, the company’s cost of debt should be around 2.5%. Incomes

from associates are expected at nearly EUR 91m (EUR 97m in 9M 15).

Tax rate ought to be almost flat YoY at roughly 30% and thus the net profit

should be down by around 12%. Capex. In 9M 16, Snam should have invested

around EUR 845m (EUR 803m invested in 9M 15).

Conclusion & Action: we don’t believe 9M 2016 results may be considered a

catalyst for the stock. The catalyst remains, in our view, the releverage process

and the interest rate dynamic. At the current market price, based on our

estimates, the stock is trading at a nearly 5% premium vs. its equity RAB and it

offers an attractive 5.8% dividend yield. We confirm our positive stance on the

stock.

Analyst(s):

Dario Michi, Banca Akros

[email protected]

+39 02 4344 4237

Accumulate

3.57


4.30



Target price: EUR

Share price: EUR

Reuters/Bloomberg SRG.MI/SRG IM



Free float 69%









Sales (m) 2,576 2,417 2,454

EBITDA (m) 2,052 1,953 2,003

EBITDA margin 79.7% 80.8% 81.6%

EBIT (m) 1,476 1,345 1,375

EBIT margin 57.3% 55.6% 56.0%


ROCE 6.6% 5.4% 5.9%

Net debt/(cash) (m) 10,317 10,700 10,775




EV/Sales 8.9 9.0 8.9

EV/EBITDA 11.1 11.2 10.9

EV/EBITDA (adj.) 11.1 11.2 10.9

EV/EBIT 15.5 16.2 15.9

P/E (adj.) 14.3 15.4 13.8

P/BV 2.1 1.9 1.8

OpFCF yield 4.6% 2.8% 5.3%


EPS (adj.) 0.28 0.23 0.26

BVPS 1.88 1.90 1.95

DPS 0.25 0.21 0.22

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6


vvdsvdvsdy

SNAM Stoxx Utilities (Rebased)Source: Factset

Shareholders: CDP 31%;

of 60


European Coverage of the Members of ESN

A ero space & D efense M em(*) Bcp CBI Kemira OPG Corbion NIBC

Airbus Group CIC Bnp Paribas CIC Linde EQB Danone CIC

Dassault Aviation CIC Bper BAK Tikkurila OPG Ebro Foods GVC

Latecoere CIC Bpi CBIElectro nic & Electrical

EquipmentM em(*) Enervit BAK

Leonardo BAK Caixabank GVC Alstom CIC Fleury M ichon CIC

Lisi CIC Commerzbank EQB Areva CIC Forfarmers NIBC

M tu EQB Credem BAK Euromicron Ag EQB Heineken NIBC

Ohb Se EQB Credit Agrico le Sa CIC Kontron EQB Hkscan OPG

Safran CIC Creval BAK Legrand CIC La Doria BAK

Thales CIC Deutsche Bank EQB Neways Electronics NIBC Lanson-Bcc CIC

Zodiac Aerospace CIC Deutsche Pfandbriefbank EQB Nexans CIC Laurent Perrier CIC

A irlines M em(*) Eurobank IBG Pkc Group OPG Ldc CIC

Air France Klm CIC Ing Group NIBC Rexel CIC Naturex CIC

Finnair OPG Intesa Sanpaolo BAK Schneider Electric Se CIC Olvi OPG

Lufthansa EQB M ediobanca BAK Vaisala OPG Parmalat BAK

A uto mo biles & P arts M em(*) M erkur Bank EQB Viscom EQB Pernod Ricard CIC

Bittium Corporation OPG National Bank Of Greece IBG F inancial Services M em(*) Raisio OPG

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Brembo BAK Nordea OPG Athex Group IBG Remy Cointreau CIC

Continental EQB Piraeus Bank IBG Azimut BAK Vidrala GVC

Daimler Ag EQB Poste Italiane BAK Banca Generali BAK Vilmorin CIC

Elringklinger EQB Societe Generale CIC Banca Ifis BAK Viscofan GVC

Faurecia CIC Ubi Banca BAK Banca Sistema BAK Vranken Pommery M onopole CIC

Ferrari BAK Unicredit BAK Bb Biotech EQB Wessanen NIBC

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles BAK B asic R eso urces M em(*) Binckbank NIBC F o o d & D rug R etailers M em(*)

Landi Renzo BAK Acerinox GVC Bolsas Y M ercados Espanoles Sa GVC Ahold NIBC

Leoni EQB Altri CBI Capman OPG Carrefour CIC

M ichelin CIC Arcelormittal GVC Christian Dior CIC Casino Guichard-Perrachon CIC

Nokian Tyres OPG Corticeira Amorim CBI Cir BAK Dia GVC

Norma Group EQB Ence GVC Comdirect EQB Jeronimo M artins CBI

Piaggio BAK Europac GVC Corp. Financiera Alba GVC Kesko OPG

Plastic Omnium CIC M etka IBG Deutsche Boerse EQB M arr BAK

Sogefi BAK M etsä Board OPG Deutsche Forfait EQB M etro CIC

Stern Groep NIBC M ytilineos IBG Eq OPG Sligro NIBC

Valeo CIC Outokumpu OPG Euronext CIC Sonae CBI

Volkswagen EQB Semapa CBI Ferratum EQB General Industria ls M em(*)

B anks M em(*) Ssab OPG Finecobank BAK 2G Energy EQB

Aareal Bank EQB Stora Enso OPG Grenke EQB Aalberts NIBC

Abn Amro Group Nv NIBC Surteco EQB Hypoport Ag EQB Accell Group NIBC

Aktia OPG The Navigator Company CBI M lp EQB Ahlstrom OPG

Alpha Bank IBG Tubacex GVC Ovb Holding Ag EQB Arcadis NIBC

Banca Carige BAK Upm-Kymmene OPG Patrizia Ag EQB Aspo OPG

Banca M ps BAK B io techno lo gy M em(*) Rallye CIC Huhtamäki OPG

Banco Popolare BAK 4Sc EQB Unipol Gruppo Finanziario BAK Kendrion NIBC

Banco Popular GVC Cytotools Ag EQB F o o d & B everage M em(*) Nedap NIBC

Banco Sabadell GVC Epigenomics Ag EQB Acomo NIBC Pöyry OPG

Banco Santander GVC Wilex EQB Atria OPG Prelios BAK

Bankia GVC C hemicals M em(*) Bonduelle CIC Rubis CIC

Bankinter GVC Air Liquide CIC Campari BAK Saf-Holland EQB

Bbva GVC Holland Colours NIBC Coca Cola Hbc Ag IBG Serge Ferrari Group CIC

of 60


Siegfried Holding Ag EQB H o useho ld Go o ds M em(*) Axa CIC Thermador Groupe CIC

Tkh Group NIBC Bic CIC Banca M edio lanum BAK Titan Cement IBG

Wendel CIC De Longhi BAK Catto lica Assicurazioni BAK Trevi BAK

General R etailers M em(*) Fila BAK Delta Lloyd NIBC Uponor OPG

Banzai BAK Osram Licht Ag EQB Generali BAK Vicat CIC

Beter Bed Holding NIBC Seb Sa CIC Hannover Re EQB Vinci CIC

Elumeo Se EQB Zumtobel Group Ag EQB M apfre Sa GVC Yit OPG

Fielmann EQB Industria l Engineering M em(*) M unich Re EQB M edia M em(*)

Folli Fo llie Group IBG Accsys Technologies NIBC Nn Group Nv NIBC Ad Pepper EQB

Fourlis Holdings IBG Aixtron EQB Sampo OPG Alma M edia OPG

Groupe Fnac Sa CIC Ansaldo Sts BAK Talanx Group EQB Atresmedia GVC

Inditex GVC Biesse BAK Unipolsai BAK Axel Springer EQB

Jumbo IBG Cargotec Corp OPGM aterials, C o nstruct io n &

InfrastructureM em(*) Brill NIBC

M acintosh NIBC Cnh Industrial BAK Abertis GVC Cofina CBI

Rapala OPG Danieli BAK Acs GVC Cts Eventim EQB

Stockmann OPG Datalogic BAK Aena GVC Editoriale L'Espresso BAK

Yoox Net-A-Porter BAK Deutz Ag EQB Aeroports De Paris CIC Gl Events CIC

H ealthcare M em(*) Dmg M ori Seiki Ag EQB Astaldi BAK Havas CIC

Amplifon BAK Duro Felguera GVC Atlantia BAK Impresa CBI

Bayer EQB Emak BAK Bilfinger Se EQB Ipsos CIC

Biotest EQB Exel Composites OPG Boskalis Westminster NIBC Jcdecaux CIC

Diasorin BAK Gesco EQB Buzzi Unicem BAK Lagardere CIC

Fresenius EQB Ima BAK Caverion OPG M 6-M etropole Television CIC

Fresenius M edical Care EQB Interpump BAK Cramo OPG M ediaset BAK

Gerresheimer Ag EQB Kone OPG Eiffage CIC M ediaset Espana GVC

Korian CIC Konecranes OPG Ellaktor IBG Notorious Pictures BAK

M erck EQB Kuka EQB Eltel OPG Nrj Group CIC

Orio la-Kd OPG M anz Ag EQB Ezentis GVC Publicis CIC

Orion OPG M ax Automation Ag EQB Fcc GVC Rcs M ediagroup BAK

Orpea CIC M etso OPG Ferrovial GVC Relx NIBC

Pihlajalinna OPG Outotec OPG Fraport EQB Rtl Group EQB

Recordati BAK Pfeiffer Vacuum EQB Heidelberg Cement Ag CIC Sanoma OPG

Rhoen-Klinikum EQB Ponsse OPG Heijmans NIBC Solocal Group CIC

H o tels, T ravel & T o urism M em(*) Prima Industrie BAK Hochtief EQB Spir Communication CIC

Accor CIC Prysmian BAK Imerys CIC Syzygy Ag EQB

Autogrill BAK Smt Scharf Ag EQB Italcementi BAK Telegraaf M edia Groep NIBC

Beneteau CIC Technotrans EQB Lafargeholcim CIC Teleperformance CIC

Elior CIC Valmet OPG Lehto OPG Tf1 CIC

Europcar CIC Wärtsilä OPG Lemminkäinen OPG Ubisoft CIC

I Grandi Viaggi BAK Zardoya Otis GVC M aire Tecnimont BAK Vivendi CIC

Iberso l CBI Industria l T ranspo rtat io n M em(*) M ota Engil CBI Wolters Kluwer NIBC

Intralo t IBG Bollore CIC Obrascon Huarte Lain GVC Oil & Gas P ro ducers M em(*)

Kotipizza OPG Caf GVC Ramirent OPG Eni BAK

M elia Hotels International GVC Ctt CBI Royal Bam Group NIBC Galp Energia CBI

Nh Hotel Group GVC Deutsche Post EQB Sacyr GVC Gas Plus BAK

Opap IBG Hhla EQB Saint Gobain CIC Hellenic Petro leum IBG

Snowworld NIBC Logwin EQB Salini Impregilo BAK M aurel Et Prom CIC

Sodexo CIC Insurance M em(*) Sias BAK M otor Oil IBG

Sonae Capital CBI Aegon NIBC Sonae Industria CBI Neste Corporation OPG

Trigano CIC Allianz EQB Srv OPG Petrobras CBI

of 60


Qgep CBI Wcm Ag EQB Enav BAK Falck Renewables BAK

Repsol GVC R enewable Energy M em(*) Fiera M ilano BAK Fortum OPG

Total CIC Daldrup & Soehne EQB Lassila & Tikanoja OPG Gas Natural Fenosa GVC

Oil Services M em(*) Gamesa GVC Openjobmetis BAK Hera BAK

Bourbon CIC So ftware & C o mputer Services M em(*)T echno lo gy H ardware &

EquipmentM em(*)Iberdro la GVC

Cgg CIC Affecto OPG Asm International NIBC Iren BAK

Fugro NIBC Akka Technologies CIC Asml NIBC Public Power Corp IBG

Saipem BAK Alten CIC Besi NIBC Red Electrica De Espana GVC

Sbm Offshore NIBC Altran CIC Elmos Semiconductor EQB Ren CBI

Technip CIC Amadeus GVC Ericsson OPG Snam BAK

Tecnicas Reunidas GVC Assystem CIC Gemalto CIC Terna BAK

Tenaris BAK Atos CIC Gigaset EQB

Vallourec CIC Basware OPG Ingenico CIC

Vopak NIBC Cenit EQB Nokia OPG

P erso nal Go o ds M em(*) Comptel OPG Roodmicrotec NIBC

Adidas EQB Ctac NIBC Slm Solutions EQB

Adler M odemaerkte EQB Digia OPG Stmicroelectronics BAK

Amer Sports OPG Docdata NIBC Suess M icrotec EQB

Basic Net BAK Econocom CIC Teleste OPG

Cie Fin. Richemont CIC Ekinops CIC T eleco mmunicat io ns M em(*)

Geox BAK Esi Group CIC Acotel BAK

Gerry Weber EQB Exprivia BAK Deutsche Telekom EQB

Hermes Intl. CIC F-Secure OPG Drillisch EQB

Hugo Boss EQB Gft Technologies EQB Elisa OPG

Interparfums CIC Ict Group NIBC Euskaltel GVC

Kering CIC Indra Sistemas GVC Freenet EQB

L'Oreal CIC Nemetschek Se EQB Kpn Telecom NIBC

Luxottica BAK Neurones CIC M asmovil GVC

Lvmh CIC Nexus Ag EQB Nos CBI

M arimekko OPG Novabase CBI Oi CBI

M oncler BAK Ordina NIBC Ote IBG

Puma EQB Psi EQB Tele Columbus EQB

Safilo BAK Reply BAK Telecom Italia BAK

Salvatore Ferragamo BAK Rib Software EQB Telefonica GVC

Sarantis IBG Seven Principles Ag EQB Telia OPG

Technogym BAK Software Ag EQB Tiscali BAK

Tod'S BAK Sopra Steria Group CIC United Internet EQB

R eal Estate M em(*) Tie Kinetix NIBC Vodafone BAK

Adler Real Estate EQB Tieto OPG Utilit ies M em(*)

Beni Stabili BAK Tomtom NIBC A2A BAK

Citycon OPG Visiativ CIC Acciona GVC

Deutsche Euroshop EQB Wincor Nixdorf EQB Acea BAK

Grand City Properties EQB Suppo rt Services M em(*) Albioma CIC

Hispania Activos Inmobiliarios GVC Asiakastieto Group OPG Direct Energie CIC

Igd BAK Batenburg NIBC Edp CBI

Lar España GVC Bureau Veritas S.A. CIC Edp Renováveis CBI

Realia GVC Cellnex Telecom GVC Enagas GVC

Sponda OPG Dpa NIBC Endesa GVC

Technopolis OPG Edenred CIC Enel BAK

Vib Vermoegen EQB Ei Towers BAK Eydap IBG

LEGEND: BAK: Banca Akros; CIC: CM CIC Market Solutions; CBI: Caixa-Banca de Investimento; GVC: GVC Gaesco Beksa, SV, SA; EQB: Equinet bank; IBG: Investment Bank of

Greece, NIBC: NIBC Markets N.V: OPG: OP Corporate Bank:; as of 1st September 2016

of 60


List of ESN Analysts (**)

Ari Agopyan CIC +33 1 53 48 80 63 [email protected] Victoria Kruchevska (CFA,FRM) EQB +49 69 5 89 97 416 [email protected]

Artur Amaro CBI +351 213 89 6822 [email protected] Jean-Christophe Lefèvre-Moulenq CIC +33 1 53 48 80 65 [email protected]

Helena Barbosa CBI +351 21 389 6831 [email protected] Konstantinos Manolopoulos IBG +30 210 817 3388 [email protected]

Javier Bernat GVC +34 91 436 7816 jav [email protected] Dario Michi BAK +39 02 4344 4237 [email protected]

Dimitris Birbos IBG +30 210 81 73 392 [email protected] Marietta Miemietz CFA EQB +49-69-58997-439 [email protected]

Agnès Blazy CIC +33 1 53 48 80 67 [email protected] José Mota Freitas, CFA CBI +351 22 607 09 31 [email protected]

Charles Edouard Boissy CIC +33 01 53 48 80 81 [email protected] Henri Parkkinen OPG +358 10 252 4409 [email protected]

Rafael Bonardell GVC +34 91 436 78 171 [email protected] Victor Peiro Pérez GVC +34 91 436 7812 [email protected]

Louise Boyer CIC +33 1 53 48 80 68 [email protected] Francis Prêtre CIC +33 4 78 92 02 30 [email protected]

Giada Cabrino, CIIA BAK +39 02 4344 4092 [email protected] Francesco Previtera BAK +39 02 4344 4033 francesco.prev [email protected]

Arnaud Cadart CIC +33 1 53 48 80 86 [email protected] Jari Raisanen OPG +358 10 252 4504 [email protected]

Niclas Catani OPG +358 10 252 8780 [email protected] Hannu Rauhala OPG +358 10 252 4392 [email protected]

Pierre Chedeville CIC +33 1 53 48 80 97 [email protected] Matias Rautionmaa OPG +358 10 252 4408 [email protected]

Emmanuel Chevalier CIC +33 1 53 48 80 72 [email protected] Eric Ravary CIC +33 1 53 48 80 71 [email protected]

David Consalvo CIC +33 1 53 48 80 64 [email protected] Iñigo Recio Pascual GVC +34 91 436 7814 [email protected]

Edwin de Jong NIBC +312 0 5508569 [email protected] Gerard Rijk NIBC + 31 (0)20 550 8572 [email protected]

Martijn den Drijver NIBC +312 0 5508636 [email protected] André Rodrigues CBI +351 21 389 68 39 [email protected]

Christian Devismes CIC +33 1 53 48 80 85 [email protected] Jean-Luc Romain CIC +33 1 53 48 80 66 [email protected]

Andrea Devita, CFA BAK +39 02 4344 4031 [email protected] Jochen Rothenbacher, CEFA EQB +49 69 58997 415 [email protected]

Sebastian Droste EQB +49 69 58 99 74 34 [email protected] Vassilis Roumantzis IBG +30 2108173394 [email protected]

Enrico Esposti, CIIA BAK +39 02 4344 4022 [email protected] Sonia Ruiz De Garibay GVC +34 91 436 7841 [email protected]

Rafael Fernández de Heredia GVC +34 91 436 78 08 [email protected] Antti Saari OPG +358 10 252 4359 [email protected]

Enrico Filippi, CEFA BAK +39 02 4344 4071 [email protected] Paola Saglietti BAK +39 02 4344 4287 [email protected]

Gabriele Gambarova BAK +39 02 43 444 289 [email protected] Francesco Sala BAK +39 02 4344 4240 [email protected]

Eduardo Garcia Arguelles GVC +34 914 367 810 [email protected] Holger Schmidt, CEFA EQB +49 69 58 99 74 32 [email protected]

Alexandre Gérard CIC +33 1 53 48 80 93 [email protected] Cengiz Sen EQB +4969 58997 435 [email protected]

Philipp Häßler, CFA EQB +49 69 58997 414 [email protected] Pekka Spolander OPG +358 10 252 4351 [email protected]

Simon Heilmann EQB +49 69 58 997 413 [email protected] Kimmo Stenvall OPG +358 10 252 4561 [email protected]

Dr. Knud Hinkel EQB + 49 69 58997 419 [email protected] Natalia Svyrou-Svyriadi IBG +30 210 81 73 384 [email protected]

Marcell Houben NIBC +31 20 550 8649 [email protected] Luigi Tramontana BAK +39 02 4344 4239 [email protected]

Carlos Jesus CBI +351 21 389 6812 [email protected] Johan van den Hooven NIBC +312 0 5508518 [email protected]

Mark Josefson EQB +4969-58997-437 [email protected] Kévin Woringer CIC +33 1 53 48 80 69 [email protected]

(**) excluding: strategists, macroeconomists, heads of research not covering specific stocks, credit analysts, technical analysts

of 60


ESN Recommendation System The ESN Recommendation System is Absolute. It means that each stock is rated on the basis of

a total return, measured by the upside potential (including dividends and capital reimbursement)

over a 12 month time horizon.

The ESN spectrum of recommendations (or ratings) for each stock comprises 5 categories: Buy

(B), Accumulate (A), Neutral (N), Reduce (R) and Sell (S).

Furthermore, in specific cases and for a limited period of time, the analysts are allowed to rate the

stocks as Rating Suspended (RS) or Not Rated (NR), as explained below.

Meaning of each recommendation or rating:

Buy: the stock is expected to generate total return of over 15% during the next 12 months time horizon

Accumulate: the stock is expected to generate total return of 5% to 15% during the next 12 months time horizon

Neutral: the stock is expected to generate total return of -5% to +5% during the next 12 months time horizon

Reduce: the stock is expected to generate total return of -5% to -15% during the next 12 months time horizon

Sell: the stock is expected to generate total return under -15% during the next 12 months time horizon

Rating Suspended: the rating is suspended due to a change of analyst covering the stock or a capital operation (take-over bid, SPO, …) where the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a related party of the issuer is or could be involved

Not Rated: there is no rating for a company being floated (IPO) by the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a related party of the issuer

Certain flexibility on the limits of total return bands is permitted especially during higher phases of volatility on the markets

ESN Ratings Breakdown

Date and time of production: 14th November 2016 9 :18am CET First date and time of dissemination: 14th November 2016 9 :20am CET

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Caixa-Banco de Investimento

Rua Barata Salgueiro, nº 33

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Portugal

Phone: +351 21 313 73 00

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C/ Marques de Villamagna 3

28001 Madrid

Spain

Phone: +34 91 436 7813

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151 25 Maroussi,

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Tel: +30 210 81 73 383

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Viale Eginardo, 29

20149 MILANO

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France

Phone: +33 1 53 48 80 78

Fax: +33 1 53 48 82 25

equinet Bank AG

Gräfstraße 97

60487 Frankfurt am Main

Germany

Phone:+49 69 – 58997 – 212

Fax:+49 69 – 58997 – 299

OP Corporate Bank plc

P.O.Box 308

Teollisuuskatu 1, 00013 Helsinki

Finland

Phone: +358 10 252 011

Fax: +358 10 252 2703

http://www.bancaakros.it/

http://www.caixabi.pt/

https://mail.esnpartnership.eu/owa/redir.aspx?C=8Zt3eXAOIkqYEQDE_-yjO4gceHQnAtMIAKuq5wlXoeMctWfJzR5HnUAHD5WapHeCCa8AyfgTFB4.&URL=http%3a%2f%2fwww.cmcicms.com

http://www.equinet-ag.de/

http://www.ibg.gr/

http://www.nibcmarkets.com/

http://www.op.fi/

http://www.valores.gvcgaesco.es/

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