GD573: GraDuate seminartrenD DiaGram & essays

Errors in Reasoning

The Dangers of a Mindset

Jumping to Conclusions

Misconceptions

Wrong Generalizations

Mistaking Evidence for Proof

Circular Reasoning

False Analogies

Misusing Statistics

Relative Versus Absolute

Extreme Judgments

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Dangers of a Mindset

to wear a seat belt

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Dangers of a Mindset

personal experiences influencethe development of

our beliefs and values

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Dangers of a Mindset

mindets arepatterns of thinking

that guide the way

we react to situations

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Dangers of a Mindset

mindsets determine

what we notice andwhat we ignore

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Dangers of a Mindset

we see and hearwhat we want to

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Dangers of a Mindset

we select facts thatreinforce our ideas

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Dangers of a Mindset

... but mindsets performimportant functions

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Dangers of a Mindset

checks and balances:

examine assumptions&

play devil’s advocate

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Jumping to Conclusions

you did it

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Jumping to Conclusions

don’t have all the factsand closed to new facts

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Jumping to Conclusions

didn’t see it happendon’t know why it happened

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Jumping to Conclusions

judgment based oncircumstantial evidence

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Jumping to Conclusions

checks and balances:

assume benevolence&

ask open questions&

have the courage to be wrong

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Misconceptions

national testspredict performance

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Misconceptions

confuse the meaning ofa relational word

i.e. average

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Misconceptions

the glass ishalf full or half empty

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Misconceptions

stereotypes,prejudices, anddiscrimination

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Misconceptions

checks and balances:

define terms&

support conclusion with direct facts (not inference)

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Wrong Generalizations

pit bulls areaggressive dogs

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Wrong Generalizations

too many exceptionsto the rule

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Wrong Generalizations

biased selectionof information

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Wrong Generalizations

overgeneralizationapplied beyond its proper limits andlikely to produce wrong conclusions

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Wrong Generalizations

checks and balances:

define limitations&

contextualize statements

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Mistaking Evidence for Proof

belief that womenare inferior to men

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Mistaking Evidence for Proof

absolutely sureof generalized facts

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Mistaking Evidence for Proof

beliefs becomeself-fulfilling prophecies

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Mistaking Evidence for Proof

testimoniesare not reliable

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Mistaking Evidence for Proof

checks and balances:

identify exceptions&

evidence must be overwhelming

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Circular Reasoning

Taxation of incomeis for the common good.

Why do you say that?

Because in the long run,taxation of income isin the best interest

of all citizens.

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Circular Reasoning

rephrasethe statement you’re proving

and then

use a similar statementas proof for the original

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Circular Reasoning

“because”makes it seem as ifyou’re saying why

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Circular Reasoning

checks and balances:

“5 Why’s” activity&

list multiple effects

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

False Analogies

there areplenty of fish

in the sea

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

False Analogies

if two things aresimilar in one way,

they may also besimilar in other ways

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

False Analogies

“maybe”gets converted into

“is”

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

False Analogies

omitimportant differences

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

False Analogies

an analogies is only ahypothesis

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

False Analogies

proverbsappear to be sage advice,but can support any side

i.e.

“Make hay while the sun shines” (buy)“Haste makes waste” (don’t buy)

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

False Analogies

checks and balances:

identify assumptions&

identify concrete similarities

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Misusing Statistics

the modern plagueof ADHD

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=zDZFcDGpL4U

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Misusing Statistics

makes the informationseem accurate

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Misusing Statistics

used to arguefor special interests

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Misusing Statistics

does not includeoutliers or discounted

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Misusing Statistics

misinterpret“average”

does not give any indicationof the distribution of numbers

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Misusing Statistics

checks and balances:

learn basic statistical principles&

verify the population & methods&

look at the whole data set

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Relative Versus Absolute

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Relative Versus Absolute

subjective wordsare relative

lack established standards

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Relative Versus Absolute

checks and balances:

avoid absolutes (yes/no)&

relation to multiple examples&

plot examples along a spectrum

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Extreme Judgments

legalized in 1967

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Extreme Judgments

black and whiteinterpretations

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Extreme Judgments

convinced beyonda shadow of doubt

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Extreme Judgments

seeking justice and/or revenge

GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays

Errors in Reasoning

Extreme Judgments

checks and balances:

investigate the backstory&

see from multiple sides&

practice compassion