What are the dimensions of armed violence and insecurity in Europe?Ernesto U. Savona

Director and Professor

ernesto.savona@unicatt.it

Transcrime – Joint Research Centre on Transnational CrimeUniversità Cattolica del Sacro Cuore | Università degli

studi di Trentowww.transcrime.it

Regional Review Conference on the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and DevelopmentGeneva, Switzerland | 8-9 July 2014

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This Presentation • Aims to answer the main question of this conference

combining the first results of two research projects that Transcrime is developing for the European Commissiono Project OC Portfolio (www.ocportfolio.eu), which examines

the development and investments of Organised Crime Groups in the European legal economy

o FIRE (Fighting illicit firearms trafficking routes and actors at European level)

o Points for discussion:o TOC UN CONVENTION AND ITS PROTOCOLS: GENERIC

AND LEGAL DEFINITIONS;o Organized crime and illicit trafficking as passepartout

conceptso Differences on who is trafficking what to whom and whereo The case of small arms traffickingo Operationalising definitions and collecting data on authors,

and flows

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Main stages and actors involved

Licit production

Illicit production

Theft, leakage for manufacturers, leakage from surplus stock, fake export

Transfer to country of destination

Sale to criminals and users

Transfer to country of destination

Sale to criminals and users

Restart of a new illicit trafficking (e.g. through theft, fake export, etc.)

Stages Actors

Contract negotiation Buyer; seller; manufacturer; broker

Preparation of exportManufacturer; exporter; broker; carrier; warehousing agent; handling agent

Transit Carrier; broker; warehousing agent; handling agent

ImportImporter/end user; broker; warehousing agent; carrier; handling agent

Sources: Spapens, 2007; Small Arms Survey, 2010

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Traffickers’ profiles (1)

• Former members of police/armed forces Role: brokers Tools and contacts exploited: contacts with military groups, police

and armed forces. They usually obtain arms from military deposits in their home country or receive them from an importer or other brokers

Other information: use of corruption, exploitation of position of power

• Managers or workers in legal arms manufactures/dealers Role: sellers (at the very first stage of the trafficking chain) Tools and contacts exploited: contacts with brokers that arrange and

prepare the whole trafficking Other information: not directly involved in the selling or transportation

of arms to the destination country

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Traffickers’ profiles (2)

• Organised crime groupso Mafia type organisations

Role: consumers or brokers (usually classified as users and not as sellers)

Tools and contacts exploited: they can receive arms form other organisations or brokers

Other information: arms in exchange for some other illicit goods (e.g. drugs)

o Other criminal organisations Role: brokers, importers and exporters (they arrange the trafficking and

act as intermediaries in order to finalise the transaction) Tools and contacts exploited: presence of several individuals belonging to

different organisations and exploiting their personal contacts to arrange the illicit traffic

Other information: illegal trafficking in firearms as core business and for a long period of time. They can be set up and expand where there is the opportunity of making money, usually in areas of conflict

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Traffickers’ profiles (2)

• Organised crime groupso Loose networks

Role: brokers, importers and exporters (they arrange the traffic and act as intermediaries in order to finalise the transaction)

Tools and contacts exploited: presence of several individuals exploiting temporary opportunities

Other information: mainly small scale, limited period of time, limited number of people, actors specialised in different roles. They can be involved in other offences and the illicit trafficking in firearms can be just a secondary activity for the criminal group

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Traffickers’ profiles (3)

• Businessmen and professionals Role: brokers, exporters, sellers Tools and contacts exploited: high status within the legal society and

high knowledge of the firearms market Other information: they usually export and sell arms in areas of

conflicts

• Occasional traffickers Role: sellers (not brokers: they are not able to manage and arrange the

entire traffic) Tools and contacts exploited: few contacts and little knowledge of the

market’s dynamics Other information: limited period of time and moved by temporary

opportunities or needs

E.g. The emerging trends in distributing illicit firearms through specialist websites (in the so-called “dark web”). The possible sellers active in this market can be individuals that do not have a close network of contacts and want to make some profit from reselling arms already they already possess or created for this purpose

8Source: Project OCP preliminary results (July 2014)

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Estimates – Methodology

• Estimates of the size of the illicit trafficking in firearms (ITF) market as a share of the total turnover of the licit firearms market at EU levelo According to the literature, the illicit trafficking in

firearms is between 10% and 20% of the licit market

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Estimates – Data and results

• As the estimates take into consideration the value of import, export and production, the value of the illicit trafficking in firearms is calculated at EU level

• Data retrieved from Eurostat 2012 ono Area: EU 27 (Croatia is not included since it was not a

Member State in 2012)o Value (euro) of import + export + productiono Type of firearms included: revolvers and pistols + shotguns,

rifles, carbines + cartridges and ammunitions

• Estimates in thousands of euro

Source: Project OCP preliminary results (2014)

Low High Average246,509 493,017 369,763

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Sources

• KLPD-IPOL (2009), National Threat Assessment 2008. Organised crime. Zoetermeer, Netherlands: Korps Landelijke Polietdiensten - IPOL Department. Retrieved from http://www.politie.nl/binaries/content/assets/politie/documenten-algemeen/publicaties-archief/2008_ndb2008_georganiseerde_criminaliteit_engels.pdf

• Media and open sources• Project OCP preliminary results (www.ocportfolio.eu)• Spapens, T. (2007). Trafficking in Illicit Firearms for Criminal

Purposes within the European Union. European Journal of Crime, Criminal Law and Criminal Justice, 15(3), 359–381. doi:10.1163/092895607X231206

• Small Arms Survey (2010), “Controlling Air Transport: Practice, Options, and Challenges”, in Small Arms Survey 2010: Gangs, Groups, and Guns. Retrieved from http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/fileadmin/docs/A-Yearbook/2010/en/Small-Arms-Survey-2010-Chapter-02-EN.pdf)

What are the dimensions of armed violence and insecurity in Europe?Ernesto U. Savona

Director and Professor

ernesto.savona@unicatt.it

Transcrime – Joint Research Centre on Transnational CrimeUniversità Cattolica del Sacro Cuore | Università degli

studi di Trentowww.transcrime.it

Regional Review Conference on the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and DevelopmentGeneva, Switzerland | 8-9 July 2014