ernesto ochoa director, marketing - tennessee gas pipeline
TRANSCRIPT
The Big Picture
Dramatic supply growth continues
Marcellus, Utica, Permian, Eagle Ford….. Unconventional = the “new” conventional?
Gas demand continues growth trajectory US economy : power gen residential / industrial Exports : LNG; Mexico
Infrastructure impetus New sources new plumbing supply to market Mexico Energy Reform
2
3
U.S. becomes net exporter Industrial demand growth
Less Canadian Exports to U.S. More U.S. Exports to Mexico Continued supply increases
Gas-fired generation increases
Source: ICF International and Kinder Morgan Analysis
+9.6 Bcfd Res +1.9 Bcfd
+20.1 Bcfd +1.5 Bcfd -2.0 Bcfd
+7.7 Bcfd Ind +3.1 Bcfd
Current Key Trends
Key Natural Gas Basins
Well-positioned connecting key natural gas resources with major demand centers
__________________________
(a) Includes KM share of non-wholly owned projects. Includes
projects currently under construction. 5
TGP Supply Diversity
8
Marcellus 19.8 Bcf/d
Haynesville 6.7 Bcf/d
Eagle Ford 6.4 Bcf/d
Fayetteville 1.1 Bcf/d
Utica 4.6 Bcf/d
Barnett 3.4 Bcf/d
• TGP touches > 42 Bcf/d of diverse shale supply basins • ~ 2 Bcf/d of northeast supply flows through Sta. 87 • Average flowing supply (2017): 8.6 Bcf/d
Changing TGP Operations
• Designed to deliver TX/LA supply rate-able to Northeast markets
• High utilization of 100 line, high seasonal utilization of 200 and 300 lines
• Consistent imports on the Niagara Spur • Maintenance typically performed in summer
months May – Oct
2007 2017
• Marcellus receipts > 3.4 Bcf/d serving Northeast markets, new power generation with record power burn
• Lower utilization of 100 line long-haul, high utilization of 200 & 300 lines, 300 line westbound from Station 315
• Consistent exports on Niagara Spur & to Mexico • Maintenance performed whenever possible due to power
plant load and Marcellus supply
100 Line
800 Line
500 Line
200 Line
300 Line 300 Line
100 Line 500 Line
800 Line
200 Line
TGP Outlook and Drivers
10
500 Line
200 Line
300 Line
100 Line
200 Line
800 Line
• System wide supply growth • New & Changing Power Demand • LNG
• Mexico
1.4BCF
200k Free Flow
2.3 BCF
700k
1.7 BCF
700k
240k
1.8 BCF 1.7 BCF
1 BCF
600k
Sta 87
Mexico
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• Exports to Mexico
have reached the
capacity of pipelines
at ~ 4 Bcf/d
• Future exports
bolstered by
forecasted steady
decline in Mexican
gas production
Source: S&P Global
Mexico Energy Reform
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Oil & Gas Production Open to private investment
Electricity More merchant generation.
Gas Transmission Shipper direction
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 New CENACE - Electricity Market Commences
CENAGAS formed
Round 0 Bidding
Round 1 Bidding
Additional bidding rounds
CENAGAS Operating Gas Pipelines
Energy Reform Authorized via
change to Mexico’s Constitution
Market-based gas pricing
Petroleum product prices deregulated
Mexico auctions pipeline capacity