Epidemiology Situation Unit

October 22nd, 2020

Ethan S. Walker, PhD, MPHPostdoctoral Researcher

Erin O. Semmens, PhD, MPHAssociate Professor

Press Conference

Kristie Scheel, MS, MPHCOVID-19 Situation Unit Leader

Rebecca M. Elderkin, MPHCOVID-19 Testing Data Specialist

Cindy Farr, BSNCOVID-19 Incident Commander

COVID-19 Situation in Missoula County

• Situation has changed dramatically since our last press conference on August 19th when we described the situation as relatively stable

• Current environment• Epi profile• New and active cases• Incidence• Testing

• Capacity• Public health response• Testing• Healthcare

• Recommendations

https://www.missoulainfo.com/data

7-day average of new cases per day

cel.health.umt.edu/covid19

Missoula County Dashboard

https://www.missoulainfo.com/

Dashboard daily updates

Daily new cases per 100,000 people in Missoula County

Age distribution of active cases in Missoula County

September 30th

• 20-29 years: 51%• 60+ years: 5%

Age distribution of active cases in Missoula County

October 6th

• 20-29 years: 38%• 60+ years: 14%

Age distribution of active cases in Missoula County

October 13th

• 20-29 years: 30%• 60+ years: 19%

Age distribution of active cases in Missoula County

October 22nd

• 20-29 years: 29%• 60+ years: 20%

Missoula County Hospitalizations

Daily Positivity Rate: 7-day average 8.03%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

0

50

100

150

200

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300

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500

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Daily Positivity Rate - Week 33 (10.11.2020 - 10.17.2020)

Test Events Positivity Rate

14 Day Positivity Rate: 14-day avg. 8.72%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

0

100

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600

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900

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Posi

tivi

ty R

ate

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nts

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14 Day Positivity Rate - Week 32&33 (10.4 - 10.17.2020)

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

0

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% P

osi

tivity R

ate

Test

Events

Weeks since Mar. 9

Weekly Test Events and Positivity Rate (Mar. 9 – Oct. 17, 2020)

Test Events Pos Rate

Public health capacity

• Contact tracing• Case investigation and contact tracing

process

• Why is it so important?

• Current number of close contacts in Missoula

• Impact of case/contact numbers on time it takes to perform these key steps

• Testing• Expanded testing capacity (e.g. at UM) but

increased demand

• Time between test and result

Healthcare capacity

• Healthcare capacity in the county – hospital beds, ICU beds, staffing, PPE

• Flu/cold season will place additional strains on healthcare system

MT DPHHS hospital bed status report (10/21/2020)

What comes next and what can we do

• MT has one of the highest Rt and case rates of any state

• We need to act now as we head into cold/flu season

• We need to use all of interventions available to us whenever possible, not just one

• Even if you have mild symptoms, get tested

Questions?