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Epidemiology Situation Unit
October 22nd, 2020
Ethan S. Walker, PhD, MPHPostdoctoral Researcher
Erin O. Semmens, PhD, MPHAssociate Professor
Press Conference
Kristie Scheel, MS, MPHCOVID-19 Situation Unit Leader
Rebecca M. Elderkin, MPHCOVID-19 Testing Data Specialist
Cindy Farr, BSNCOVID-19 Incident Commander
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COVID-19 Situation in Missoula County
• Situation has changed dramatically since our last press conference on August 19th when we described the situation as relatively stable
• Current environment• Epi profile• New and active cases• Incidence• Testing
• Capacity• Public health response• Testing• Healthcare
• Recommendations
https://www.missoulainfo.com/data
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7-day average of new cases per day
cel.health.umt.edu/covid19
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Missoula County Dashboard
https://www.missoulainfo.com/
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Dashboard daily updates
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Daily new cases per 100,000 people in Missoula County
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Age distribution of active cases in Missoula County
September 30th
• 20-29 years: 51%• 60+ years: 5%
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Age distribution of active cases in Missoula County
October 6th
• 20-29 years: 38%• 60+ years: 14%
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Age distribution of active cases in Missoula County
October 13th
• 20-29 years: 30%• 60+ years: 19%
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Age distribution of active cases in Missoula County
October 22nd
• 20-29 years: 29%• 60+ years: 20%
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Missoula County Hospitalizations
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Daily Positivity Rate: 7-day average 8.03%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Daily Positivity Rate - Week 33 (10.11.2020 - 10.17.2020)
Test Events Positivity Rate
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14 Day Positivity Rate: 14-day avg. 8.72%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Posi
tivi
ty R
ate
Test
eve
nts
Day
14 Day Positivity Rate - Week 32&33 (10.4 - 10.17.2020)
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0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
% P
osi
tivity R
ate
Test
Events
Weeks since Mar. 9
Weekly Test Events and Positivity Rate (Mar. 9 – Oct. 17, 2020)
Test Events Pos Rate
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Public health capacity
• Contact tracing• Case investigation and contact tracing
process
• Why is it so important?
• Current number of close contacts in Missoula
• Impact of case/contact numbers on time it takes to perform these key steps
• Testing• Expanded testing capacity (e.g. at UM) but
increased demand
• Time between test and result
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Healthcare capacity
• Healthcare capacity in the county – hospital beds, ICU beds, staffing, PPE
• Flu/cold season will place additional strains on healthcare system
MT DPHHS hospital bed status report (10/21/2020)
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What comes next and what can we do
• MT has one of the highest Rt and case rates of any state
• We need to act now as we head into cold/flu season
• We need to use all of interventions available to us whenever possible, not just one
• Even if you have mild symptoms, get tested
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Questions?