Click to add title

Envisioning and Materialising Energy Transitions: A comparison of public and policy system scenarios

Catherine Butler & Christina Demski

Karlsruhe, 10th October 2013

Collaborators: Karen Parkhill, Alexa Spence, Nick Pidgeon

Click to add title Overview

• Project Introduction - Public Engagement with

Energy Futures

• UK Energy Policy Visions and Scenarios

• Public perspectives, visions and scenarios

• The importance of public values

• Comparing similarities and differences

Project Background

Multiple long-term national policy goals bring imperatives to transform the energy system

• Climate change, Energy security, Affordability, Environment

Publics are deeply implicated in how energy systems are configured Scenarios have limited social dimensions

• Simplified assumptions about public perspectives • Lack of empirical research

Public engagement with whole energy system change

Project Overview

WP 1: Scenarios

• Scenario Analysis

• Expert Consultation & Material Development

• Conducted Jan-June 2011

WP 2: Qualitative

• Deliberating Energy System Scenarios & Trade-offs

• 6 Workshops, UK

• Conducted June – Oct 2011

WP 3: Quantitative

• National (GB) Survey: Attitudes toward Whole Energy System Transformations

• Conducted online 2-12th 2012 August

Methods Overview

WP 2 Deliberative Workshops

6 Workshops (n=68)

• Different UK locations

Diverse sample

WP 3 National Online Survey

Nationally representative for GB (n=2,441)

Core samples in Wales & Scotland

Theoretical sub-sampling

Click to add title

Energy Futures for 2050 –

UK Policy Perspectives

“Energy Futures”

Cost effective

Whole energy system transformations...

Click to add title UK Energy Policy Context

Core MARKAL scenario > 2050:

Supply • Nuclear (33 GW) • Fossil fuels with CCS (29 GW) • Renewable (incl. bioenergy) (45 GW )

Demand

• 50% reductions in final energy consumption on 2011 levels

• Heat pumps and heat networks, energy efficiency (insulation), battery electric and fuel cell vehicles, reduced use of private vehicles

Click to add title UK Energy Policy Context

• Gas expected to remain dominant for heating until 2030 (subsequent transitions to heat pumps and networks)

• Gas unabated until 2030 (replacing coal) then with CCS

• Strategy aims to reassure investors + improves context for unconventional gas (and oil)

Click to add title UK Policy Context

Energy Futures for 2050 –

Public Perspectives

Click to add title

2.34

2.2

2.17

2.12

1.9

1.89

1.88

1.87

1.86

1.8

1.58

1.57

1.2

1.11

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

Home effic.

Business greenness

Other Renewables

Wind- sea

Biofuels

How we Travel

Transport fuel

Fossil fuel reduction

Heating fuel

Wind-land

Home temp.

CCS

Nuclear

Manufacturing Growth

1

0.96

0.96

0.94

0.93

0.93

0.9

0.88

0.87

0.83

0.83

0.83

0.8

0.57

0 0.5 1 1.5

Nuclear

CCS

Wind-land

Home temp.

Biofuels

Manufacturing Growth

Heating fuel

Transport fuel

How we Travel

Wind- sea

Other Renewables

Business

Home effic.

Fossil fuel reductionMean inclusion level

Standard deviations

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5M

ean

incl

usi

on

Findings: Energy Supply

Strong commitment to renewable forms of energy production, and a corresponding shift away from fossil fuels.

Nearly 80% include high levels of

renewables including offshore wind in their energy pathways.

Findings: Energy Demand

People want to see a reduction in energy demand and a corresponding increase in energy efficiency

Findings: Energy Demand

Reducing energy demand and increasing energy efficiency

The importance of values

Examining what UNDERLIES preferences and views

• Public perceptions and acceptability as highly complex

• Preferences may shift and change

• Especially important for topics of low-salience in everyday life, new and emergent issues, and views that are not yet fully formed.

Formulation of a preference or perception occurs through connecting up new information and experiences with existing values and ideas

Solar Energy - example

“RENEWABLE” “CLEAN”

“FAIR” “JUST”

It’s not about the technology, it’s about the values

Public VALUES

Reducing the use of finite resources

Reducing overall levels of energy use

Environmental protection

Naturalness and

Nature

Avoiding waste

Efficient

Capturing opportunities

Availability and Affordability

Reliability

Safety

Autonomy and Freedom

Choice and Control

Social Justice

Fairness, Honesty & Transparency

Long-term trajectories

Interconnected

Improvement and quality

Efficient and not Wasteful

Avoiding waste and waste products, being more efficient and capturing opportunities

Click to add title Just and Fair

Being mindful of implications for people’s abilities to live healthy lives; a system that is fair and inclusive, where actors are honest and transparent.

- Social, environmental, financial impacts

- Vulnerable groups

- Intra- and intergenerational justice

Social Justice

Fair distribution of cost and benefits

Click to add title Just and Fair

Being mindful of implications for people’s abilities to live healthy lives; a system that is fair and inclusive, where actors are honest and transparent.

Pragmatism

Comparing Energy Futures for 2050 – Public and Policy

Drivers for Transitions

Cost effective

Drivers for Transitions - Values

Reducing the use of finite resources

Reducing overall levels of energy use

Environment and

Nature

Efficient and Not-Wasteful

Secure and Stable

Autonomy and Power

Just and Fair

Process and

Change

Click to add title System Elements

Similarities • Public and policy

scenarios move toward high renewables.

• High reductions in demand facilitated through state-led initiatives in public transport and low carbon vehicles, and efficiency and low carbon heat.

Differences • Relatively high levels

of fossil fuels with CCS remain in 2050.

• Differences for nuclear • Bioenergy plays a

significant role in policy scenarios as part of RETs.

• Reductions in demand less innovative in policy – little focus on regulation or incentives.

Click to add title Final Reflections

• Importance of moving beyond perceptions and looking at underlying concerns across whole systems

• Further development of comparative analysis – more specific policy scenarios

• Integrating public values with scenarios - strengthening socio-political contexts for scenarios

Click to add title Thank you

UK Energy Research Centre

+44 (0)20 7594 1574, www.ukerc.ac.uk

Collaborators: Karen Parkhill, Alexa Spence, Nick Pidgeon