TimothyJ.Sullivana,CharlesT.Driscollb,ColinM.Beierc,DallasBurtrawd,IvanJ.Fernandeze.JamesN.Gallowayf,DavidA.Gayg,ChristineL.Goodaleh,

GeneE.Likensi,j,GaryM.Lovetti,ShaunA.Watmoughk

aE&SEnvironmentalChemistry,Inc.bCivil&EnvironmentalEngineering,cForestandNaturalResourcesManagement,StateUniversityofNewYorkCollegeofEnvironmentalScienceandForestrydResourcesfortheFutureeSchoolofForestResources&ClimateChangeInstitute

fDepartmentofEnvironmentalSciencesgWisconsinStateLaboratoryofHygienehDepartmentofEcology&EvolutionaryBiologyiCaryInstituteofEcosystemStudiesjDepartmentofEcologyandEvolutionaryBiologykSchooloftheEnvironment,TrentUniversity

EnvironmentalScience&Policy(inpress)

Goals

Ø  Informpublicdiscourseregardingroleofscience

inresourcemanagement

amidsta(emptstonegatevalueandrelevance ofscien4ficdataandfact-basedanalysis

infaceofpar4sanopinionandideology

Ø  Showdecreasesinairpollu8onanditseffectsa:ributabletopolicyinformedbyresearchand

monitoring

Examples

Ø  SandNemissionsanddeposi8on

Ø  Elimina8onoftetraethylleadfromgasoline

Ø  VisibilityØ  TroposphericozoneØ Wateracidifica8on

Ø  Hgbioaccumula8on

ExampleTimeSeriesTrendsinAirPollu8onLevels

Na8onalemissionsofoxidizednitrogen(NOx)andsulfurdioxide

(SO2)throughouttheU.S.fromU.S.EPA’sNa8onalEmissions

Inventory.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

SO2orNOX(m

illiontonsyr-1)

Year

SO2

NOX

Annualwetdeposi8onofsulfur(S)andnitrogen(N)since1979as

measuredbytheNa8onalAtmosphericDeposi8onProgramat

Hun8ngtonForest,NYandtotal(wetplusdry)deposi8on

es8matedbySchwedeandLear(2014)since2000atBigMoose

Lake,NY.

02468101214

1977 1987 1997 2007 2017SorNdep

osition

(kgha

-1 yr

-1)

YearWetS WetN TotalS TotalN

Meanairconcentra8onoflead(Pb)measuredateightUnited

Statesmonitoringsitesfrom1980-2015.Dataareannual

maximum3-monthaveragesfromU.S.EPA(

h:ps://www.epa.gov/air-trends/lead-trends).

00.20.40.60.81

1.21.41.61.82

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Aircon

centratio

nofPb(µgm

)- 3

Year

NationalStandard

Annualaveragehazeindexonthehaziest20%ofdaysatShining

RockWilderness,NC,since1995,plustheglidepathofcon8nuous

improvementneededtomeettheRegionalHazeRule

requirementofzerohuman-causedhazebytheyear2064.Data

source:h:ps://webcam.srs.fs.fed.us/graphs/vis/index.php?wilderness=shinin

15

20

25

30

35

1990 2000 2010 2020

Averagehazeinde

x(deciviews)

YearHaziest20%ofDays-AnnualAverageHaziest20%ofDays-GlidePath

ExampleTimeSeriesTrendsinAirPollu8onEffects

Decreasingconcentra8onsofhydrogenioninprecipita8onat

HubbardBrookExperimentalForest,NHovertheperiodof

availabledata.(Datasource:HolmesandLikens2016)

0

20

40

60

80

100

1960 1980 2000 2020

Hydrogenion(µeq

l)-1

Year

WaterchemistryatBigMooseLake,NY(datasource:AdirondackLakes

SurveyCorpora8on[h:p://www.adirondacklakessurvey.org/]).Adverse

impactsonaqua8clifearegenerallyassociatedwithinorganicaluminum

(Ali)concentra8onsabove2µM,pHbelowabout6.0,andacidneutralizing

capacity(ANC)below50µeql-1(U.S.EPA2009a).Sulfate(SO42-)isthemajor

driverofeffects.

-101030507090110130150

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1980 2000 2020

Ali(µm

oll-1 )orpHun

its

Year

SO4

Ali

ANC

orANC

(µeq

l-1 )

SO42-

Atmosphericozoneconcentra8onatLookRock,GreatSmokyMountains

Na8onalPark,TN,expressedasthefourthhighest8-hourannualaverage

andthree-yearaverageconcentra8ondata.Datasource:h:ps://www.epa.gov/outdoor-air-quality-data/monitor-values-report.Notethatozoneis

consideredasan“effect”becauseitformsintheatmosphereinresponse

toemissionsofitsprecursorsnitrogenoxidesandvola8leorganic

compounds.

405060708090100110120

1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016Ozone

concentration(ppb

)

YearFourthHighest8-HourAverage3-YearAverage

NationalStandard

Decreasingconcentra8onofcalciuminstreamwateratthe

HubbardBrookExperimentalForest,NH,referencewatershed,in

partreflec8ngdelayedrecoveryofthesoilfromacidifica8on.

051015202530354045

1960 1980 2000 2020

Calcium

(µmoll-1 )

Year

Economics

Ø  Airqualityimprovementsfrom1970to1990

undertheCleanAirActprovided$22trillionin

cumula8vehealthbenefits,with$0.5trillionin

costs(1990$)

Ø  In2011,the1990CleanAirActamendments

werees8matedtoyield$2trillioninaddi8onal

benefitsby2020,withcompliancecostsequal

to$65billion.

Conclusions

Ø  Pollutantreduc8onshaveprovidedenvironmental,social,andeconomicbenefits

Ø  Datafromlong-termresearchandmonitoring

arecri8calforfact-baseddecisionmaking

Ø  Ifnotus,thenwho?