SEP 2014

Aliasghar Abbasi

Forecasting Methods

Environmental Scanning

Mohsen Bahrami

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I. History and Introduction: Objectives of Environmental Scanning

II. What is Environment Scanning

III. How to do it - Some Scanning Techniques1. Expert Panels2. Database Literature Review3. Internet Searches4. Hard-Copy Literature Review5. Essays on Issues by Experts6. Key Person Tracking and Conferencing Monitoring

Table of Contents

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Environmental scanning is the term most futurists used in the 1960-1970s

Since plans are based on forecasts and forecasts are based on assumptions about the future, scanning the horizon is always prudent to identify new developments that can challenge past assumptions or provide new perspectives about future threats or opportunities.

History and Introduction Objectives of Environmental Scanning (ES)

All futurists do Environmental Scanning – some are more organized and systematic, all try to distinguish among what is constant, what changes, and what constantly changes.

Futures Scanning Systems

Early Warning Systems

Futures Intelligence Systems

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Environmental scanning can be thought of as the central input to futures research.

All futurists do it in one way or another.

What is ES?

Section 2What is ES?

All futurists do Environmental Scanning – some are more organized and systematic, all try to distinguish among what is constant, what changes, and what constantly changes.

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Our Environment Changes in Our Environment

Classifying Change

Section 2

All futurists do Environmental Scanning – some are more organized and systematic, all try to distinguish among what is constant, what changes, and what constantly changes.

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Marketing Environment The Enterprise Environment: Macro and Micro LevelSection 2

All futurists do Environmental Scanning – some are more organized and systematic, all try to distinguish among what is constant, what changes, and what constantly changes.

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Marketing Environment An Environmental Scan of Today’s MarketplaceSection 2

All futurists do Environmental Scanning – some are more organized and systematic, all try to distinguish among what is constant, what changes, and what constantly changes.

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1. Expert Panels

How to do it

Section 3Some Scanning Technics

The best way to predict the future is to create it.- Abraham Lincoln

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2. Database Literature Review

How to do it

Section 3Some Scanning Technics

The best way to predict the future is to create it.- Abraham Lincoln

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3. Google Alerts and Web Crawlers for Internet Searches

How to do it

Section 3Some Scanning Technics

The best way to predict the future is to create it.- Abraham Lincoln

http://www.googlealert.com/

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4. Hard Copy Literature Review

How to do it

Section 3Some Scanning Technics

The best way to predict the future is to create it.- Abraham Lincoln

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5. Essays on Issues by Experts

How to do it

Section 3Some Scanning Technics

The best way to predict the future is to create it.- Abraham Lincoln

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6. Key Person Tracking and Conferencing Monitoring

How to do it

Section 3Some Scanning Technics

The best way to predict the future is to create it.- Abraham Lincoln

THE END