environmental scanning - master vti

AC/UNU Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology

Environmental Scanning

by

Theodore J. Gordon and Jerome C. Glenn

1994



Acknowledgments

Some contents of this report have been drawn from other methodology and issues papers in this seriesas well as prior publications of the Millennium Project Feasibility Study of the United NationsUniversity. In particular, the first phase of the UNU/Millennium Project Feasibility Study, funded bythe United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), provided a great deal of backgroundabout the use of expert panels to identify future issues worthy of study. In addition, theMethodological Working Paper, titled Notes on Environmental Scanning, provided importantbackground on scanning approaches contemplated by the United Nations DevelopmentProgramme/African Futures; the elements of which were created during a training program conductedby one of this paper's authors (Glenn) for UNDP/African Futures. An abridged version is an appendixto this report.

Also this paper has been improved by the peer review comments of Joseph Coates, Presidentof Coates & Jarrett; Robert Smith, President of the Futures Group; and William Renfro, President,Issues Management Association and President of his own firm Policy Research in Washington, D.C. Finally, one of this paper's authors (Gordon) recently contributed to the design of a similar scanningsystem for EPA. Some of the suggestions offered in this report are derived from the earlier EPAwork.

Neda Zawahri provided excellent project support, Barry Bluestein provided research andcomputer operations, and Sheila Harty provided skillful editing of the final draft. Thanks to all foryour contributions.



Table of Contents

1. Introduction: Objectives of Environmental Scanning

2. Some Scanning Techniques

2.1 Expert Panels2.2 Computer On-Line Literature Review2.3 Hard Copy Literature Review2.4 Essays on Issues by Experts

3. Building an Environmental Scanning Data Base

4. Recommendations to Africa Futures

Appendix:

A. Sample of on-line computer scan

B. Abridged Notes on Environmental Scanning, NLTPS

Methodological Working Paper Series, MES/93/003.

UNDP/African Futures

C. Issues Management Process Flow Diagram andRelationship with the Strategic Planning Process

D. Summary Matrix: Issues Management Techniquesand Evaluation Factors


Environmental Scanning 1

1. INTRODUCTION: OBJECTIVES OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING

Since plans are based on forecasts and forecasts are based on assumptions about the future, scanningthe horizon is always prudent to identify new developments that can challenge past assumptions orprovide new perspective to future threats or opportunities. Environmental scanning systems provideearly warning about important changes and detect "weak signals" that indicate plans should beamended.

No system will be able to eliminate all uncertainty; the objective of a scanning system is simplyto find early indications of possibly important future developments to gain as much lead time aspossible. The question is how best to implement an early warning system. Based on our work for theAfrican Futures Project of the United Nations Development Programme and other research, webelieve that there are four approaches that should be considered:

1. Expert panels could "look out" for changes on the horizon that could be important toimplement or accomplish plans;

2. Computer on-line literature reviews could search on-line data bases for information that couldrevise plans;

3. Hard-copy literature reviews of selected periodicals could also to detect important incipientchanges; and

4. Essays by experts could explore critical long-term issues for recommendations on policy andstrategy such as the Millennium Project Feasibility Study work for UNDP/Africa Futures.

Each of these approaches will be reviewed in the next section of this report.

Environmental scanning fits into the larger process of issues management and strategicplanning. William Renfro, President of the Issues Management Association identifies four stages forthe issues management process:


1 William L. Renfro. Issues Management in Strategic Planning. Quorum Books, Westport: 1993. p. 67.


1. Identifying potential future issues by scanning the horizon and beyond of the corporation's [ornation's] current and planned operating and peripheral environments;

2. Researching the background, future, and potential impacts of these issues;

3. Evaluating issues competing for anticipatory operations and action programs; and

4. Developing strategies for these anticipatory operations.1

Renfro goes on to say: "These different stages are often seen as comprising a cycle, usuallyan annual one timed to the strategic planning cycle. Though usually run in an interlocked cycle, thesestages are unique enough that at first they are examined separately and then in the context of a cycle."


2 Theodore J. Gordon and Jerome C. Glenn, Issues in Creating the Millennium Project, UNUOctober 1993. This report also conducted a "test run" using an international panel to identify and evaluatesome important future environmental developments as well as to produce a forecast of population size inseveral countries and regions.


2. SOME SCANNING TECHNIQUES

2.1 Expert Panels

One approach to scanning the environment for incipient changes is the use of an expert panel.Participants in such a panel could be asked, systematically, to provide observations and judgmentsabout important developments that are underway or expected. Panelists would be contacted bycomputer communications, fax, mail, or telephone and asked to scan their fields for observationsabout new or intensifying issues or opportunities that could affect African countries. They would alsobe asked for judgments about developments suggested by other panelists as well as for policies toconsider in light of these developments.

The United Nations University (UNU) was recently funded by the U.S. EnvironmentalProtection Agency (EPA) to study the design of such a panel.2 Among the relevant key findings ofthis study to an African Futures' panel were:

• Candidate panelists can be identified through systematic literature searches, nomination bytwo or more peers in "daisy chain" fashion, and through recommendations of professionalorganizations.

• Panelists should be compensated for their time and reimbursed for the cost ofcommunications.

• Important qualifications of panelists are their discipline, experience, work, and interests;search mechanisms should also seek out creative thinkers, with diverse viewpoints fromaround the world.

• The composition of the panel should change over time with rotation encouraged to bring freshminds and views into the process.

• Communications media should include all forms -- electronic mail, telephone (voice), post,and fax -- as electronic mail is not available to all invitees and fax is expensive.

• Questions of fact should be directed to panelists who are experts; panelists should be able to



excuse themselves from answering questions beyond their expertise.

• Panelist responses should be anonymous when fed back to the group as a whole, although thelist of participants should be known to all.

In any practical design, the number of respondents will be small; therefore, an environment"look out" panel can not produce statistically significant results. The results provided by the panel willnot predict the response of a larger population or even the findings of a different panel. They willrepresent the synthesis of opinion of the particular group, no more or less.

Since the value of a "look out" panel will depend on the knowledge and cooperation of thepanelists, persons who are likely to contribute valuable ideas are essential to include. In a statisticallybased study, such as a public opinion poll, participants are assumed to be representative of a largerpopulation; in panels of this sort, nonrepresentative, knowledgeable persons are needed.Representatives of various national and international organizations, and others might be invited toparticipate.

Such a panel is envisioned as on-going and continuous, probably consisting of 75 or socarefully selected people from various disciplines. Questionnaires would be initiated by AfricanFutures or national planning staffs and sent to the panel on a regular basis. The first question of eachcould ask, essentially, "What newly perceived, high impact future developments in your field shouldbe included in plans being developed by sub-Saharan African countries?" A second question mightpresent the items newly suggested by others and ask for judgments by other knowledgeable panelists,as follows: "In the last round, some panelists contributed observations about future developmentsin their field; please review these and provide judgements from your experience and knowledge aboutthe likelihood and impacts of these developments." A final question might ask about policies underconsideration by the planners and judgments about likelihood of implementation (and if not, why not)and effectiveness, if implemented.

Other people should be included who might not function well on such review panels but arenevertheless reliable sources of information about change in specific areas, make change themselves,and/or often have new ideas and insight into the processes of change. Talking with these individualsone-to-one is helpful to explore their views more fully. In this way, one is not only keeping track ofissues but of thoughts and behaviors of key individuals who are leading indicators themselves.

2.2 Computer On-Line Literature Review

In deriving material for the issue report on Technological Capacity in this series, on-line data baseswere searched for information about future changes of potential importance to Africa. Two data bases



were searched: ABI Inform, and the Social Science Index. Both of these data bases were searchedon CD ROM through a subscription service called ProQuest. Subscribers to this service receive aCD ROM reader and an array of CD ROM discs that are updated frequently. The material on thediscs can be easily searched using words that are matched through a rapid search algorithm againstthe abstracts or full text contained in the data base. NOTE: this is not a keyword search, but a full-text search of the abstract, which is much more powerful. Either of these data bases can be searcheddirectly on-line using a time-sharing service.

ABI Inform is an accumulation of abstracts of articles that have appeared in some 1,200journals including, for example: Technology Review, International Journal of InformationResource Management, Chemical Week, Computers in Industry, and Agribusiness.

Social Science Index is a data base that uses full text from scientific journals coveringdisciplines that range from anthropology to sociology; about 9,000 pages of text are scannedper year.

Figure 1 shows the search terms that were used and the number of articles found in these sources.Not all of these abstracts or articles were direct "hits," but a high percentage were extremely useful.

Search Terms ABI/Inform Social Science Index

Africa and Technology not South Africa 061 030Africa and Economic not South Africa 250 334Africa and Trade not South Africa 132 027Africa and Agriculture not S.Africa 028 039Africa and Politics not S.Africa 018 329Sustainability 101 037Africa and Sustainability not S.Africa -0- 002Human Welfare 016 007Africa and Human Welfare not S.Africa -0- -0-Education and African not S.Africa 023 024Delphi 155 007Delphi and Method 055 003Cross Impact 010 016Cross Impact and Method 005 001Scenario 1587 051Scenario and Method 154 001

Figure 1. Data Base Search Results



In all cases, search terms were used that were likely to produce rich results; however, someterms proved unproductive. In particular, "scenario" has come into such wide and imprecise usagethat a great number of articles were retrieved using this search term alone. Combining "scenario" with"method" was more useful in targeting the search.

As Table 1 indicates, "South Africa" was an excluded term in many searches because whennot excluded, the articles of interest dealing with sub-Saharan African countries were greatlyoutnumbered.

We recommend that African Futures continue searching selected on-line data bases usingstandardized search terms that provide information relevant to national planning, such as thoseillustrated above.

With the increasing availability of Internet access in Africa and the proliferation of computerdata banks connected to it, new forms of searching are becoming available. New internationalsearching mechanisms, like Gopher, WAIS (Wide Area Information Server), Mosaic, and others, letsone search thousands of data banks without initially knowing which ones existed that containedrelevant information. Computer scanning services will give daily abstracts of articles based onindividual search requests. One can then order the full text of the article via voice, fax, or electronicmail. (See appendix for example of a daily scan from HeadsUp.)

2.3 Hard Copy Literature Review

Most of the issue papers prepared for African Futures referred to reports and papers published inperiodicals, including scholarly journals, newspapers, industry magazines, and other similar sources.In most instances these referenced documents were obtained by means other than on- line literaturesearches. Some of these sources proved particularly productive and are recommended for inclusionsin any systematic scanning system by African Futures. Listed below are some of the most usefulsources (and one or two examples of the material derived from these sources for the issue paper onTechnological Capacity).

Newspapers and News Magazines: African FocusAfrica Report:

- Topouzis, Daphne. "The Problem with People." Africa Report p. 64-66 (4 March 1991).- Da Costa, Peter. "Securing the Future." Africa Report p. 47- 50 (January 1993).

Business Africa:



- "How AIDS will Affect African Business." Business Africa p.1-2 (1 August 1993).

African Economic Digest- "Egypt: Utah Company Discovers Potassium Salt Deposits in the Gulf of Suez." African

Economic Digest p. 16 (9 March 1992).

Africa News- "National Security Review 30: American Policy toward Africa in the 1990s -- KeyFindings." Africa News (21 December 1992).

Newspapers and news magazines: general contentChristian Science Monitor

- Press, Robert. "African Nations Brace for Economic Impact of AIDS." The Christian ScienceMonitor (30 July 1993).

- Groc, Isabelle. "Third-World Schools Struggle to Catch Up." The Christian Science Monitor p.12(8 September 1993).

Financial Times- Gooding, Kenneth. "Ghana Points the Way along Africa's Golden Road." Financial Times p. 22 (28July 1992).- "Oxfam Wants Urgent Marshall Plan for Africa." Financial Times (27 April 1993).

The Wall Street Journal- Yamada, Ken. "Motorola Signs Up Some Investors in Iridium Satellite Phone System." The Wall

Street Journal p. B6 (23 December 1992).- Keller, John J. "Phone Space Race has Fortune at Stake." The Wall Street Journal (18 January.1993).

JournalsForeign Affairs

- O'Flaherty. J. Daniel. "Holding Together South Africa." Foreign Affairs p. 134 (September 1993).

The Economist - "Let the Sky Rain Potatoes," The Economist, (Oct. 13, 1990).

Periodicals dealing with the futureThe Futurist

- Eaton, W. G. "South African Destiny." The Futurist p. 24-28 (January 1991)- Cetron, Marvin, and Owen Davies. "50 Trends Shaping the World." The Futurist p. 11 (September1991).



Futures - Ihonvbere, Julius O. "The Third World and the New World Order in the 1990s." Futures p.

987-1002 (December 1992).

Technological Forecasting and Social Change- Halal, William E. "The Information Technology Revolution: Computer Hardware, Software, andServices into the 21st Century." Technological Forecasting and Social Change p. 69-86 (August1993).

Periodicals dealing with science and technologyTechnology Forecasts and Technology Surveys

- "Ceramic APU Engine R&D Tests Move Ahead." Technology Forecasts and Technology Surveysp. 6-7 (August 1993).

- "Diamond Film R&D paving way for lower cost processes." Technology Forecasts and TechnologySurveys p. 1-4 (August 1993).

Scientific American- Greene, Warren. "AIDS and the Immune System," Scientific American, (September 1993).- Davis, Ged R. "Energy for Planet Earth," Scientific American, special issue on energy, (September1990).

New Scientist- Newham, Mark. "Swarm of Protest Greets Pest Control by Wasps," New Scientist (7 August,1993).- Sattaur, Omar, "World Bank Calls For Action to Halt Brain Drain," New Scientist, 124 (1989).

Science News- Amato, Ivan, "Diamonds Out of Thin Air," Science News (19 August, 1990).

- "Cosalane Halts HIV Infection," Science News (September 4, 1992), p.153.

Periodicals dealing with specific technologiesAir Transport World

- Vandyk, Anthony. "Silver Lining in Africa." Air Transport World p. 47-50 (December 1992).

World Telecom Daily- "Market Report." World Telecom Daily p.5-6 (3 February 1992).

Chemical Week- Shamel, Roger E., and Joseph J. Chow. "Biotechnology." Chemical Week p. 31-32 (27 September1989).



Industry Week- Teresko, John. "Technology out of the Lab into Reality." Industry Week p.43-48 (18 January 1993).

Energy Policy- Davidson, Ogunlade, "Energy and Carbon Emissions: Sub Saharan African Perspective," Energy

Policy (January 1993).

Publications of specific institutionsWorldwatch Institute

- Lenssen, Nicholas, Nuclear Waste: The Problem That Won't Go Away, Worldwatch Institute(1991).

Office of Technology Assessment- Energy in Developing Countries, Office of Technology Assessment (Jananury 1991).- Biotechnology in a Global Economy (October 1991).

United Nations Publications - UNESCO, Statistical Yearbook (1992).

- Human Rights and Scientific and Technological Development, The United Nations University Press,Tokyo, Japan (1990).- Godet, Michel, From Anticipation to Action: A Handbook of Strategic Prospective, UNESCOPublishing (1993).- Gordon, Theodore J., and Jerome C. Glenn. Issues in Creating the Millennium Project: Initial

Report from the Millennium Project Feasibility Study. Washington, D.C.: UnitedNations University (October 1993).

- United Nations. Global Outlook 2000. New York, NY: United Nations Publications (1990).- World Health Organization regularly publishes AIDS statistics.

Population Reference Bureau- Goliber, Thomas J. "Africa's Expanding Population: Old Problems, New Policies." Population

Bulletin v. 44 (November 1989).

Specific mention must be made of Technology Survey, a monthly survey of books and articleswith content relevant to future developments. This survey, prepared by Dr. Michael Marien, was thebasis for the annotated bibliographies that appeared in all of the issue papers. Any environmentalscanning activity of the sort planned by Africa Futures should employ this source as a reference.

A wide variety of reports are prepared under the auspices of various government developmentagencies, such as the Overseas Development Agency (UK), the U.S. Agency for International


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Development (USAID), the Swedish International Development Agency, etc. A person from AfricanFutures should be included on each of these agency's mailing list to obtain current reports and plannedactivities. For example, USAID funds a project called the Center for International Health Informationthat compiles health statistics worldwide. Similarly, USAID funds a project through The FuturesGroups International that compiles and forecasts demographic and social sector data for developingcountries.

African Futures should select and subscribe to a number of publications and assign these tovarious staff members for review (see Appendix for NLTPS applications). A single person shouldbe the coordinator for the environmental scanning system. More on this topic is presented in Section3 of this report.


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2.4 Essays on Issues by Experts

The UNU/Millennium Project Feasibility Study Phase II work for African Futures prepared a seriesof issue papers. Each paper dealt with a domain of particular importance to the future of Africa. Asintended, this approach led to papers that will undoubtedly provide information useful to nationallong-range planning. The approach is also an environmental scanning technique and might beemployed in the future by UNDP/African Futures. Some of the administrative lessons learned inproducing these six essays include:

• Choose experts carefully. Although each of the "managing editors" was encouraged to callon others for contributions to their papers, most became single person authors and, therefore,their work is quite personal and reflects mostly their individual expertise.

• Consider use of staff as managing editors, with experts only contributing specific pieces andor reacting to initial text.

• Good intentions notwithstanding, schedules are sometimes missed by the contributors to suchpapers, therefore adequate lead time should be built into any schedule.

• Consider the interpersonal problems associated with the rejection of a paper or contribution.

• Pay contributors appropriately for their time; however, bureaucratic engines run slowly andpaying contributors when their work is complete is difficult to meet.

• Editing and preparation of final copy is very time consuming and labor intensive; such tasksare wrongly perceived as only "clerical," peripheral, and minor, but require professionalattention.

• Standardize a format for the manuscript, especially the outline, length, footnotes, andbibliography, and create a policy to make all contributors to adhere to this format.

• The peer review process employed in the UNU/Millennium Project Feasibility Study PhaseII was also very time consuming and labor intensive. Sometimes peer reviewers contributedlong and expert analyses that were themselves appropriate for addition to the managingeditors' texts; at other times, the comments were short, whether supportive or critical.

Despite these problems, we recommend that UNDP/African Futures consider the use of thistechnique in the future. One place for such an application would be in the expansion and explorationof a potential issue discovered by other means.


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3. BUILDING AN ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING DATA BASE

One of the authors of this paper (Glenn), developed the basis for an environmental scanning data basewith the staff of UNDP/African Futures during a training exercise. Nine domains were identified anda "template" was designed for organizing information about future developments that could beimportant to national plans. The interviews with key individuals, group judgement from panels ofexperts, scanning of on line data bases, and reading periodicals, were selected as providing input. Tobe most useful, this material should be recorded in some standard form and analyzed.

The suggested domains for scanning are:

1. Conflict and Governance;

2. Science and Technology;

3. Agriculture and Food Security;

4. Natural Resources and Environment;

5. Energy;

6. Population, Education and Human Welfare;

7. Communications and Transportation;

8. Regional and International Economics;and

9. Social Cultural Issues.

These subject domains guided the selection of issue topics in Phase II of the MillenniumFeasibility Study work for UNDP/African Futures.

Each staff member can be assigned responsibility for a domain or two. All staff can enterinformation in any domain, but assigned staff would be charged with oversight, quality control, andanalysis of that domain.

In order to record key prospective developments and track their evolution, a "template" wasderived that provides a series of questions about each future development of importance. This


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template consists of the following items:

1. Item:Identify the trend, event, or issue;

2. Description:Describe the trend, event, or issue;

3. Significance:What is the significance of this item for the future? (see section 4);

4. Importance:Why is this item important for the future?

5. Consequences or Impacts:What are the future consequences or impacts of this item?

6. Status:What is the status of this item; e.g., early social movement, laboratory testing,sales volume, percent of the public involved, or other way to specify currentstatus?

7. Actors:Who are the actors directly involved or affected (people, organizations, nations)?

8. Miscellaneous:What do you want to add that is not noted above?

9. Classification:In which domain does this event, trend or issue belong?

10. Source:Where did you obtain this information (i.e. journals, books, or other media)?

11. Location:Where is the source located?

12. Date: The day the information was entered; and

13. Scanner:


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Name and address of the person making the entry.

Using a template like this allows computer generated reports of patterns to be produced.Each item (in computer terminology: "field") can be searched for certain key words of interest to thescanner. For example, one might search filed number 5 for consequences using the world "health"and generate a report of all items with impacts on health that have been entered. Or, one mightgenerate a report of all the entries under actors and then determine if any patterns exist. In this way,additional "weak signals" or new elements can be found within the pattern of previously identifiedissues, trends, or potential future events. Clearly, entering such information into a computer database will facilitate retrieval and analysis.


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4. RECOMMENDATIONS TO AFRICAN FUTURES

Environmental scanning can be done periodically or continuously, performed ad hoc or systematically.We recommend that UNDP/African Futures set up a systematic environmental scanning system thatwill operate continuously. Such a system is illustrated below:

The system might have four sources of input at the leading edge:

• an on-going expert panel;

• a review of selected computer on-line data bases;

• a review of selected periodicals; and

• expert essays.

An item suggested by a single panelist or essayist or an item discovered in the review of on-line data bases or periodicals would be reviewed by staff and entered in the environmental scanningdata base. This review would test the potential significance (field number 3 in the "template"described in section 3) of the item by testing it against a number of criteria, such as:

Number of people affected affects a larger number of people. Severity of affects has the highest potential for damage Imminence is closest in time

Uncertainty is least certainCatalytic potential can open the most doors downstream

Not all of the criteria need have the same weight, of course. This review would lead to a

"score" for each item, based on its perceived significance. This score cannot be taken too seriously;however, the more important should be separated from the less important items. The list of criteriaabove provides a common procedure to respond to the third item or field in the environmentalscanning data base template.

Once sorted in this way, significant items can be fed back to the panel for further assessmenton probability and likelihood or, for policies, likelihood of implementation and expected effectiveness,if implemented.


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Then, for key developments, further study might be undertaken, including expert essays,assessment using quantitative models, and discussion in workshops. Renfro sums up nicely: "All ofthis information is generated for a purpose - to identify strategies and actions to implement before anissue develops into a crisis."

Key organizations with special skills in environmental scanning are: the Issues ManagementAssociation (Washington, D.C.; Congressional Clearinghouse on the Future (Washington, D.C.);The Conference Board (New York City); and Futuribles International (Paris).


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APPENDIXES

APPENDIX A: Example of an on-line computer scan:

From [email protected] Wed Jun 22 00:56:02 1994Date: Wed, 22 Jun 1994 03:56:00 -0400From: [email protected] (An Information Service of INDIVIDUAL Inc.)To: [email protected]

Wednesday, June 22, 1994

____________________________________________________________________________ELECTRONIC FRONTIER

>> INTERNET, THE global system of computer networks, now links an estimated 2.2m computers and over 25musers in 137 countries. New users are hooking up at the rate of about one every two minutes. [Media Monitor,92 words, 805340#]

>> SPRINT TODAY ANNOUNCED Global SprintLink, an international Internet service that connects Europe,the United States and the Asia-Pacific region. [PR Newswire, 476 words, 800572#]

>> SIGNALING ITS INTENTION to cash in on the growing UK demand for Internet access, telecommunicationsgiant BT recently announced Internet services, starting with simple access and extending to on-line services inthe future. [IDG News Service, 191 words, 805685#]

>> IBM OFFICIALS HAD to scurry to produce a fix last month after a user discovered a way to breach thestandard security procedures built into the company's AIX version of Unix. [PC Week, 335 words, 803598#]

>> COPYRIGHT LAW AND the business of protecting one's creative product are up against a whole newchallenge posed by the opening of the so- called information highway, the nation's top patent officer said Mondayin St. Paul. [Saint Paul Pioneer Press, 594 words, 801250#]

>> SIR, YOUR excellent supplement on Telecommunications in Business omits to mention one group of citizenswho have more than most to benefit from the information technology revolution. [Financial Times of London, 130 words, 801863#]

>> INFORMATION SUPERHIGHWAY BRIDGED to San Diego freeway system; Maxwell Laboratories andCaltrans deliver real-time traffic information via the Internet World Wide Web ... [Business Wire, 883 words, 801091#]

>> THE COMMERCE DEPARTMENT announced Monday a program designed to bolster technologicaladvancement in the United States and create more stops along the emerging information superhighway. [Palm Beach Post, 348 words, 800839#]


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>> THE US GOVERNMENT will push for deregulation of the telecommunications and cable televisionindustries, hoping that competition will steer the development of the national and global information society inthe right direction, according to a top US government official. [IDG News Service, 724 words, 805678#]

>> CHINA IS BUILDING a futuristic information superhighway by exploiting the country's backwardness,Telecommunications Minister Wu Jiachuan said. [Reuters, 453 words, 805418#]

____________________________________________________________________________VIRTUAL REALITY

>> THE FOLLOWING WAS released today by VictorMaxx Technologies: While gaminggiants Sega and Nintendo spend millions promoting their products this week at CES, a small Chicago companyplans to steal the show by introducing a product that will take gaming to the next level. [PR Newswire, 181words, 805051#]

>> MAGIC MEDIA, the London-based company, has developed one of the first virtual-reality headsetsworldwide which is compatible with a personal computer. The helmet weighs 3 pounds and uses two 2.2 inchliquid-crystal displays. [Media Monitor, 66 words, 805268#]

>> WEARING A SPORTS shirt and shorts, Steve Facella climbed into the cockpit of a Boeing 747 andperformed a slightly unorthodox takeoff. He zigzagged down the runway of New York's Kennedy InternationalAirport before pulling back on the yoke. [Sun-Sentinel, 780 words, 805430#]

____________________________________________________________________________ADVANCED DIGITAL TECH.

>> MFS DATANET, Inc., an operating company of MFS Communications Company, Inc. , today launched itsFrame Transport Service, the first service to provide frame relay over an Asynchronous Transfer Mode network... [PR Newswire, 402 words, 803732#]

__________________________________________________________________________DESKTOP PUBL. & PRESENT. SW

>> WHAT SEPARATES HIGH-end desktop-publishing programs from lower-end products? Features such ascolor management, automatic indexing, and cross-referencing are key indicators. [PC Week, 727 words, 803637#]

>> WELCOME TO DESKTOP Publishing: From Mystery to Mastery, by David Browne. High-resolutionoutput and faster computers have put desktop-publishing tools into the hands of millions of would-be designers.[PC Week, 147 words, 803603#]

____________________________________________________________________________ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

>> INTELLICORP ANNOUNCED THE first results of its year-long joint development effort with SAP which


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created: * a link between IntelliCorp's expert system/object-oriented development environment ... [IDG PRService, 427 words, 805701#]

____________________________________________________________________________MICRO. APPLICATION SOFTWARE

>> BETA TESTERS OF Lotus Development Corp.'s 1-2-3 Release 5 are giving the spreadsheet upgrade highmarks for its ability to integrate with other applications.[PC Week, 248 words, 803601#]

>> THE THREAT POSED by Microsoft Corp.'s software challenge to Lotus Notes will be little more than soundand fury, according to Lotus Development Corp. President and CEO Jim Manzi. [IDG News Service, 399 words, 805682#]

>> AS MICROSOFT CORP. and Lotus Development Corp. continue sparring for the hearts and minds ofgroupware users, Collabra Inc.'s Share is getting an initial thumbs-up from beta testers as an inexpensivealternative to both. [PC Week, 372 words, 803609#]

================ TO GET THE WHOLE STORY================o Dial 800-866-2266 or 617-354-2411.o Use Option 1 of the voice menu to order articles from today's issue or from any of your last ten issues.o Use Option 2 to change your password.o "Power Users" need not wait for system prompts.o To change your profile or if you have any questions, call Client Services at 800-414-1000 or 617-354-2230.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------Entire contents (C) 1994 by INDIVIDUAL, Inc., 84 Sherman Street, Cambridge,MA 02140, Phone: 800-414-1000 or 617-354-2230, FAX: 800-417-1000 or 617-354-6210.================[The End - HeadsUp(tm)]=================


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APPENDIX B: ABRIDGED NOTES ON ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNINGfrom original by National Long-Term Perspectives StudiesMethodological Working Paper Series MES/93/003African Futures May 1993

Introduction

The business of studying and forming opinions about the future is a complicated task...which does not have anall purpose tool....attempts to glimpse at future possibilities...has led to the development of various tools...oneis Environmental Scanning...a relatively new phenomenon...to plan the future; to increase their effectiveness; toincrease their bottom line or profitability and, in the case of the military, to win a war or maintain strategicadvantages over the perceived enemy...termed differently by different organizations...the process is aimed atidentifying emerging issues; obtaining most current factual materials and information available on subjects ofinterest; and considering the implication of the issues on the institution (Grell, 1992). Rather than just beinganother "planning technique for information gathering, it is a systemic process of strategic learning aboutorganization circumstances" (Spies, 1991). This learning process, according to Spies (1991), aims at providingan understanding with respect to:

a) the nature of change (what is happening); b) the reasons for change (why it is happening); c) the processes producing and supporting change; d) the relations between processes; e) the main actors and their objectives; and, f) the consequences of change for the organization.

In his classic article on scanning, Aguilar (1967) has identified two types of viewing and two types of search:undirected viewing, conditioned viewing, informal search and formal search. Based on this, Renfro et al. (1983B) classified scanning into four specific aspects which determine the kind of scanning used by institutions. Thesefour aspects are:

a) selecting information to scan, b) searching or screening for information resources, c) identifying criteria by which to search, and d) determining special action for the scanning results.

As identified by Renfro et al. (1983 B), the different kinds of scanning are passive, active and directedscanning...As defined by Spies (1991), undirected viewing is a general exposure to information where thescanner/person does not have any specific purpose in mind...conditioned viewing, however, involves directedexposure without active search. Informal search, described as a "relatively limited and unstructured effort toobtain information for a specific purpose" (Spies 1991), corresponds with active scanning. In this mode,information resources which are being scanned are specifically selected and not left to chance. Formal search orDirected Scanning involves a deliberate active scanning of existing resources. This scanning approach usuallyfollows well established plans and procedures.


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Objectives and purpose...according to Spies (1991), the purposes of environmental scanning are:

a) understanding the context which the organization has to operate in;b) adapting to a rapidly changing environment;c) creating a more desirable operating environment in the future; andd) improving judgement regarding management's action potential (what aspects of the future cannot be changed and what aspects can be changed and how).

Environmental scanning...is approached in different ways...a generic process...creation of a scanning

committee; the definition of its operations, the scanning procedures and methodologies. Subsequently, the focusand the taxonomy of the scan should be defined. Then the list of information resources to scan must beestablished.

The scanning committee...must be interdisciplinary...where possible, heads of the different divisions...is betweentwelve and fifteen...serve as an advisory group...usually no authorization to act on the issues. As a group, thecommittee is expected to define its modality of operations, the procedures and methodologies. The committeeshould meet at regular intervals. Individual members are assigned day-to-day tasks. The committee usually electsa coordinator or chairman.

Focus & Taxonomy of the Scan...threats or opportunities...attention to technological innovations, social changeand developments, economic developments and legislative and regulatory developments... information resourcesto scan...major newspapers, journals, trade publications, professional journals, magazines, resident and outsideexperts, outside resources such as electronic mails, other institutions and national agencies. Other materials suchas underground and fringe publications can also be very useful. Procedures...regular meetings...members report emerging issues in their designated areas...background report on emerging issues...should be prepared...background research materials should be providedto the committee members...discussed, assessed and evaluated with regard to their importance to the institution.Impacts assessment can be done using futures wheel. Implementing a futures wheel is a structured process whichallows the impacts and possible consequences of new developments to be assessed and addressed.

In addition, each issue can be evaluated using a probability impact chart in order to establish the priority of issues.This process involves each member of the committee estimating the probability that the issue will materializefully within the time frame of the interested future, and the probable impact of the issue or event on theorganization. The resulting matrix can then be summarized based on the objective of the evaluation. Likewise,cross-impacts analysis or structural analysis can be used in ranking or prioritizing the issues or consequences.

QUEST - An example of Environmental Scanning

The Quick Environmental Scanning Technique,is a scanning procedure designed to assist executives and plannersto keep abreast of change and its implications for the organizational strategies and policies. The procedurepermits administrators and top executives to share their views and to develop a shared understanding of highpriority issues, future options and eventualities which have implications to the institution. QUEST produces a)a broad and comprehensive analysis of the external environment and b) analysis and assessment of the institutions


22

capacity and strategic options for dealing with the external environment. In doing this, the organization can clarifytheir underlying purpose in relation to environmental changes and also encourage strategic thinking and anunderstanding of the dynamics of change.

The QUEST procedure involves four stages. These are: a) preparation, b) environmental scanning workshop, c)intermediate analysis and report, d) strategic options workshop and follow-up.

Preparation: Preparation for the QUEST involves four specific tasks. These tasks are definition of the strategicissue, selection of participants (usually between twelve and fifteen members), preparation of a notebook whichcontains information on the major environmental trends and events which are pertinent to the institution, andselection of suitable distraction-free sites for the QUEST workshop. Usually an off-premises site isrecommended.

Environmental Scanning Workshop: Following the preparation phase, an all-day workshop is organized todiscuss the strategic environment in which the institution operates. The workshop begins with a definition anddiscussion of the mission, purposes and objectives of the institution in order to increase the relevance of thedeliberations. After the discussion of the strategic context, an open-ended discussion of the critical events andtrends in the external environment which could have significant impacts onthe institution takes place. During this meeting, time is also devoted to analyzing the cross-impacts of these issueson each other and on the institution's strategic strengths.

Intermediate Analysis and Report: Following the all-day workshop, the results are summarized in a written report.The brief report is presented in two sections with the first part dealing with the institution's mission, purposes,objectives, stakeholders, and the second part presenting alternative scenarios describing the external environmentswhich the institution may face in the interested future.

Strategic Options Workshop and Follow-up: The final QUEST step is to hold a strategy meeting, usually forabout half a day, to discuss the report and the strategic options open to the organization. The strategic optionsare evaluated, keeping in mind the expected external environment and for consistency with the strengths andweaknesses of the institution. The QUEST is not used to set strategic policies. However, it provides theorganization with a series of precise strategic issues which have to be studied in detail before decisions are made.

In doing QUEST or any other active environmental scanning various tools can be used to solicit emerging issueswhich are of importance to the organization. Questionnaires, delphi, SWOT analysis, stakeholder analysis, futureswheels, probability charts, assumption testing, structural analysis, cross impacts analysis, and scenario planningare among the various procedures which can be used.

Issues Analysis as an Extension of Environmental Scanning - The OPIN Program as an Example.

As a process of learning and discovery of critical events and trends in the environment, environmental scanningcan easily be extended into analysis of issues, including policy alternatives and their potential implications. TheOPIN program, Ohio Policy Issues Network, is an environmental scanning network, the purpose of which is tocontribute to the improvement of government and quality of life in the state of Ohio in the United States.

The OPIN program, an environmental scanning process, was augmented by issues analysis because it wasdiscovered that simply identifying relevant issues leads only to recycled discussions and not to continuing


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contribution. The OPIN program uses environmental scanning as the principal method for anticipatingunforeseen emerging issues and trends that the members of the network believe can have significant impacts.Issues analysis was added to provide opportunity for participants to remain involved in the search for solutions.The issues analysis uses environmental scanning as a first step.

A properly implemented issues analysis is more or less a condensed futures studies because it involves goingthrough most, if not all, the steps of futures research.

In the OPIN program, scanning the environment to identify emerging issues is a collaborative effort by themembers of the network. Extra effort is made by the team to find current factual materials on the emerging issuesand specific fields of interest. In addition to these, the network tries to identify the newness or emerging featuresof the emerging trends and issues; also the scanners consider the implications of the issues to the organizationswhich they are considering. To guide their analysis of issues several questions were developed. These issuesanalysis questions guide the discussions during the scanning process. These same questions can be adapted foruse in other settings such as addressing an internal corporate or national problem and developing strategies. Thesequestions are:

* What is new about the issue? * What specific facts are known that substantiate this emerging issue? * What further information, if any, is needed to support or confirm this issue? * How is this issue relevant to local leaders, state officials and governors? * How can local leaders, governors and other policy makers influence this issue? * Who are the other actors this issue will affect? * What other levels of government will this issue impact? * What policy options can we propose and what comments do we have about them?

The OPIN program is a practical example of an environmental scanning process. The program follows the basicsteps of the scanning process, however, with the addition of issues analysis. Environmental scanning can beadapted to any situation where there is a need for the organization to have a good knowledge about theenvironment. The implementation of an environmental scanning process may vary among institutions, however,its primary objective as a learning process about the environment in order to strategically take advantage ofexternal developments does not. As a tool for exploring how an organization should respond strategically to likelyfuture events, it provides strategic planners the capabilities to plan in a more process oriented environment whichcannot easily be understood with predictive and forecasting processes.

Organizing an Environmental Scanning Function for NLTPS

In organizing a scanning function for NLTPS, determination of the issues and developments to scan for is a majorproblem which has to be addressed. Given that the unit of study in an NLTPS is a nation, rather than anorganization, the focus of the scan must take on multiple perspectives. Not only will developments within thenation have to be scanned, emerging issues from the region and the world at large must also be examined. Thatis, for the purpose of the NLTPS or strategic planning for a nation multiple perspectives must be adopted. Thisinvolves scanning the internal and external environments of the nation.

Spies (1991) specifies the environment of an organization in terms of an hierarchy of influence and control and


24

in terms of multiple perspectives. These he represented with two figures and they are in annex III. However, fora nation, the key elements of the system and trend areas must be completely defined in order to determine thescanning focus. In general, system elements for a nation may contain the following: capital, infrastructure,materials, knowledge, people, energy, customs, laws, processes, constituents, while the trend areas may include demography, international factors, environment, technology,values and attitudes, knowledge/information, religion, culture, work and workers, agriculture, life-styles, industryand business, institutions, economy, natural resources and family. The above list is not exhaustive. However, itis a starting point.

Given the extensiveness of what an active scanning process will involve for a nation, African Futures has decidedat the regional project level to assist the NLTPS process in scanning the regional and international environment.The scanning function will utilize the regional team members as well as other key individuals in strategicpositions around the world. Also the regional project is entering into an agreement with the United NationsMillennium feasibility studies project to assist in scanning global forecasts and trends.

As a support service to the National NLTPS process, African Futures will be scanning the region andinternational environment for developments in the following nine broad domains. They are: conflict andgovernance, science and technology, agriculture and food security, natural resource and environment, population,education and human welfare, communication and transportation, regional and international economics, socialand cultural issues. Each domain will be handled by a member of the regional team.

In scanning the environment, what is important are new trends, emerging issues, ruptures and breakthroughs. Theidea is to scan resources for what is new or developments in the different domains. The scanner is charged withthe following: identify the new trend, issue or event, describe it, find its significance, its importance, itsconsequences or impacts for the future, its status of development, the actors involved, the source of theinformation and the location. It is important that there should be a formal procedure for recording the outputs ofthe scanning process. The name of the scanner must be included in each scanning report. A computer softwaresuch as database management program orhypertext can be used to store the results of the scanning exercise. Using computers for this process will allowextensive flexibility in the retrieval and subsequent usage of the system. The regional project office will beencouraging information sharing between national teams and also between the national teams and itself.

Environmental Scanning in the NLTPS process

As envisioned in the project document and in the methodological approach, the NLTPS process, in many ways,is an extension of the strategic planning process. As such, it is a learning process, since it is now recognized, inmany circles, that planning is learning. It is a learning process about the past, the present and the future. To learnabout the past, since it has already occurred or passed, one can turn to the history books, and in areas whereexisting books are not adequate one can always employ social science methods to explore and find out whathappened. In studying the present, research methods can also be employed. However, learning about the future- which has not occurred - is an extremely complicated and difficult task. One approach which has gained ground,as more and more institutions anticipate the future, is environmental scanning. The NLTPS which is both afutures studies and strategic planning exercise will be employing this process.

As indicated in the African Futures publication, A Methodological Guide to the NLTPS Process, the NLTPS


25

process is envisioned to go through five phases. These phases are: Issue Identification, Preparing the Base ofStudy, Constructing Scenarios, Designing Alternative Strategies and a Strategic Agenda and an Action Plan. Theissue identification phase is expected to be used to define the purpose of the NLTPS, national aspirations andlong-term goals as well as the scope of the study. The phase for preparing the base of the study is to be used forstudying the past, the present, analyzing the actors, their rolesand strategies, and also to study the most important dynamics in society. The scenarios phase is expected to beused to construct scenarios while the strategies phase is expected to be used to construct broad strategies andpolicy options. The strategic agenda phase is left for each government to design their action plan and programsfor achieving the desired future.

Unlike established institutions with extensive resources and personnel, NLTPS has only a two year lifeexpectancy and four to five core team members. Given this special situation, the NLTPS process, in doing theirenvironmental scanning will have to, in addition to the national core team, employ the assistance of outsideresources and experts.

Precisely, an environmental scanning committee with fifteen members should be formed at the outset. Four ofthe members should be the national core team members. The remaining eleven positions should be filled withoutside experts and visionaries in different fields. In selecting outside assistants for the scanning process, effortsmust be made to utilize existing resources such as the universities, ministry of planning, non-governmentalorganizations (NGOs) and the members of the multidisciplinary working groups of the NLTPS. The committeeshould be chaired by a member of the National Core Team. At the beginning, the committee should meet at leastonce a month and thereafter meet on a bi-monthly basis.

Before the first meeting, the national core team should prepare the terms of reference for the committee, determinethe phases in which they will be called upon to provide their services and in general, decide how to make use ofthe committee during the study process. During this preparation, a brief note on the purpose and objectives ofsetting up the team should be elaborated. So that it could be distributed during the first meeting. Also themembers should be sensitized on the NLTPS processes, and they should be alerted to the contributions which areexpected of the team. The team will be scouting internal and external sources of information for emerging issueswhich will have implications for the nation. During the first meeting of the committee, the focus of the scan mustbe defined, as well as the sources of information to scan, how the results of the scan will be discussed andelaborated, how the meetings will be organized and the frequency of the meetings. It is also necessary to decideon the day-to-day assignments of each committee member. For example what areas each committee member willbe responsible for and what sources of information the members must scan and report to the scanning committee.In many instances, the committee will need a clerk to assist the chair. It is also necessary to decide on how thereports of the scanning will be written. At this point, it should be noted that for the committee to be effective theirdecisions have to be completely democratic. The preferred voting method is secret balloting. This is necessaryto avoid continued discussions on issues when there is already a consensus, and to reduce the likelihood of agroup dominating the proceedings.

Conclusion

...The need for directed active scanning arises mostly due to the dramatic pace at which society is changing today.Scanning, particularly external environmental scanning, is even more important for Africa because of the impactsof the changes in the world on the continent.


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To do a credible NLTPS, which demands a 25 to 30 year horizon, it is compulsory that we must scan for all thelikely developments within this time frame which would have significant impacts on African nations collectivelyor individually. Let us examine two examples of likely developments. In the field of bio-technology, scientistsin the United States are currently experimenting with the development of genetically engineered cocoa trees whichwill have all the utilities of traditional cocoa trees (Anderson 1989). The only difference and major problem forAfrica is that this cocoa will be able to grow in the United States . Could one imagine the consequences of Africahaving to compete with U.S. farmers in the world cocoa market? This is the type of significant events that couldhave major effects on the opportunities facing cocoa exporting nations in the developing world and can only bediscovered by actively scanning the environment.

Today many of the developed nations are moving from the industrial age into the information societies and someare even talking about the impending revolution at the molecular level. These revolutions, and others which aresure to come, will certainly affect the way humans, whether in the developed or developing world, live their dailylives. How will this affect your nation? Which of the technologies are likely to come on-board soon, that is, withinthe interested future of 25 years for the NLTPS project?

Finding out changes (critical trends, emerging issues), whether in technology, agriculture or human culture andlearning about the effects of these changes on the nation, organization or institution is the sole objective andpurpose of environmental scanning. In this regard, it is a process or technique which an NLTPS cannot dowithout.

References for African Futures Appendix on Environmental Scanning:

African Futures. A Methodological Guide to the NLTPS Process, UNDP, Abidjan (1993). Aguilar, F. J. , Scanning the Business Environment. New York: Macmillan (1967).

Anderson, C. , ?Biotechnology: Agriculture's Last Hurrah?,” in Didsbury, H. F. (ed), The Future: OpportunityNot Destiny. Maryland: World Future Society (1989).

Enzer, Selwyn , ?New Directions in Futures Methodology,” in Morrison, J.L et al. (eds), Applying Methods andTechniques of Futures Research. Washington: Jossey-Bass Inc. (1983).

Grell, Jan M., ?Issue Analysis As An Extension of Environmental Scanning,” Futures Research Quarterly, Vol.8, No. 2, (1992) pp 84-87.

Markley, O. W. , ?Explaining and Implementing Futures Research: Part I A Development Perspective,” inDidsbury, H. F. (ed), The Future: Opportunity Not Destiny, Maryland: World Future Society (1989).

Renfro, W.L. and Morrison, J.L. ?The Scanning Process: Getting Started,” in Morrison, J.L et al. (eds), ApplyingMethods and Techniques of Futures Research Washington: Jossey-Bass Inc. (1983).

Slaughter, Richard A., ?Assessing the QUEST for Future Knowledge: Significance of the Quick EnvironmentalScanning Technique for Futures,” Futures, Vol. 22, No. 2, (1990) pp 153-166.


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Spies, P. H. (eds), ?Formulating the Mess: Environmental Scanning,” BusinessFutures, Institute for FuturesResearch, University of Stellenbosch, (1991), pp 19-24.


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APPENDIX C: ISSUES MANAGEMENT PROCESS FLOW DIAGRAM AND RELATIONSHIP WITH THE STRATEGIC PLANNING PROCESS

The following diagram illustrates how scanning, both inside and outside a nation, provides information to thestrategic planning process. The diagram illustrates that this should not be a static, linear process but one that isdynamic. For a detailed explanation of this process, see Issues Management in Strategic Planning by WilliamL. Renfro published by Quorum Books, Westport, Connecticut, USA in 1993, from which the following chartis reprinted with permission of the author:

The following diagram, also from Renfro, illustrates the relationship between environmental scanning andlong-range planning that defines the strategic planning process:


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The following diagram (reprinted from the author referenced below) will be helpful for national teamsto develop their own process:

Environmental scanning and issues management are approaches to help large organizations andnations manage their future. To work, they must be embedded in a network reaching throughout thenation. The location, participation, authority, and path to effective impact are implicit in theorganizational process outline above and are fully explored in Issues Management by Joseph F.Coates and the Staff of Coates & Jarratt published by Lamond, Mt. Airy, Maryland, in 1986.


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APPENDIX D: SUMMARY MATRIX: ISSUES MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUES andEVALUATION FACTORS

The chart on two pages, also reprinted from Issues Management with permission from the author,list and evaluate many of the techniques used in environmental scanning and issues management.Many of these techniques are included in the Futures Research and Studies Methodology series ofwhich this is a part. All the techniques below are concisely explained in Issues Management.

EvaluationFactors

Relevance to IM

Importance to IM

LaborCost

Expertiseto Use

ServicesAvailable

Use inStartup

Use insteady state

Transferability to new users

Understandableto management

Do-able bymanagement

Validity

TechniquesNetworking

H H H L S M HL

H H M H

Precursor EventsBellwethers

M M H H S L M M M L L-H

Media Analysis(Col. InchCounting)

M M M H F L M H M L L-H

Polls/Surveys M M H H M L M H M L L-H

Executive Jury H H L L NA H H H H H L-H

Expert Panel

M H H H M L L M H H L-H

Scanning &Monitoring

H H M-H M S H H H M L M-H

Content Analysis

M M H M F L M L L L M-H

LegislativeTracking

H M H M S L H L M L M-H

Delphi L L M H M L L M L L L-M

ConversationalDelphi

H M M H S L L L H L H

Consensor M L L L NA L L H M-H H H

Cross-Impact H M L-H H S M M M M=H M M-H

DecisionSupportSystems

H M M L-M F L M M M-H M M-H

ComputerAssistedTechniques

H M M-H M M L H L L-M L M-H

Small groupProcess

H H L H M H H L H H M-H


EvaluationFactors

Relevance to IM

Importance to IM

LaborCost

Expertiseto Use

ServicesAvailable

Use inStartup

Use insteady state

Transferability to new users

Understandableto management

Do-able bymanagement

Validity

31

ScenarioBuilding

M M H H M L M L L-H L L-H

TrendExtrapolation

M H H H S M H L L-H L L-H

Technological Forecasting

L L H H S L L L L-H L L-H

DecisionAnalysis

L L - H F NA NA L L L L-H

FactorAnalysis

L L - H M NA NA L L L M-H

SensitivityAnalysis

L L - H M NA NA L L L M-H

Trigger EventIdentification

M M - H F L M L L-H L L-H

Key PlayerAnalysis

M M M H F H H L M-H M M-H

Correlation/Regression

L L - H M NA NA L L L L-H

CODE: H High 0-2 (years) Near Term S Some,Short M Medium 2-5 (years) Mid-Term M Maby L Low, Long 5-50 (years)Long-term F Few NA No Application UNK Unknown


32

Summary chart continued:

EvaluationFactors

Scope of Use in Industry

StartupTime

DatabaseRequire-ments

Interpersonal SkillsReqd.

Usable inAdvisoryFramework

Understandable to Advisors

TimeHorizon

CapitalCost

Application toStrategic planning

Use of Computers

TechniquesNetworking

M L L H H H 0-5* L M L

Precursor EventsBellwethers

M L H L M M 0-5* L M-H M

Media Analysis(Col. InchCounting)

M S M L M M 0-2 L L-M H

Polls/Surveys M S M L M M 0-2 L L-H H

Executive Jury M S L H H H 0-5* L L-H HL

Expert Panel

S S L H H H 0-5* L L-H L

Scanning &Monitoring

S S M M M M 0-5* L L-H M-H

Content Analysis

F L M L L L 0-5* L L-H H

LegislativeTracking

M L H L L M 0-5* L L-H M-H

Delphi F S L L H M 0-5* L M-H M-H

ConversationalDelphi

F S L H H H 0-5* L M-H L

Consensor F S L H H H 0-5* L L-H H

Cross-Impact F S L-H H L L 0-5* L M-H L-H

Decision SupportSystems

F L M-H L L M 0-5* M L-H H

ComputerAssistedTechniques

M L M-H L M M 0-5* M-H L-H H

Small groupProcess

M S L H H H 0-5* L L-H L-M

ScenarioBuilding

S L M-H H L-M M 0-5* L-H M-H L-H

TrendExtrapolation

M L M-H M L M 0-5* L M-H M-H

Technological Forecasting

M L M-H L L M 0-5* L M-H M-H


EvaluationFactors

Scope of Use in Industry

StartupTime

DatabaseRequire-ments

Interpersonal SkillsReqd.

Usable inAdvisoryFramework

Understandable to Advisors

TimeHorizon

CapitalCost

Application toStrategic planning

Use of Computers

33

DecisionAnalysis

UNK UNK UNK L NA M 0-5* L M-H H

FactorAnalysis

UNK UNK UNK L NA M UNK L M-H H

SensitivityAnalysis

UNK UNK UNK L NA M UNK L M-H H

Trigger EventIdentification

UNK UNK UNK M M L 0-5* L L L

Key PlayerAnalysis

UNK UNK UNK M M L 0-5* L L-M L

Correlation/Regression

UNK UNK UNK L L M UNK L M-H HG

CODE: H High 0-2 (years) Near Term S Some,ShortM Medium 2-5 (years) Mid-Term M ManyL Low,Long 5-50 (years) Long-Term F FewNA No ApplicationsUNK Unknown

environmental scanning - master vti

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