energy supply analysis and projections
TRANSCRIPT
Energy Planning
Govind R. PokharelAssociate Professor
Energy Planning
Why are we doing planning? For what reason we are doing?Energy security, energy access, climate
change, economic development, etc What to do and what gets priority?
Develop RE, reduce CO2 emission? Replace petroleum? Upscale quality?
Where to start/act? Which level?Bottom up/Top down? Small vs Big? National,
regional, local?
3
Before1800
Global Ecosystem
Today
Economic Subsystem
Global Perspective: We cannot buy another earth
Energy Planning
When Act? Which time scale? Focusing access or sustainability or both,
within 5 years or long term? Wait lower cost or start with available one? Set target?
How to Act? What kind of policy, Mechanism? Model? Approach? Drivers, mandatory, voluntary, Govt led, PPP,
Private sector led,
Criteria/Conditions for New/Future Energy System
Physical and Technical AvailabilityCentralised/decentralised, large/small scale,
energy mix, RPS, technology mix, technology span
Cost-EffectiveWhat cost, external cost, social issues
Social, Ecological and Environmental
Mutually-reinforcing cycles of technology development and market deployment
IEA, 2003
Energy scenarios by level of energy consumption and share of renewable energy
Cost and benefit effects of RE, exemplified for the RE expansion sector
System analytical impacts
Price and allocation impacts
Macro economical impacts
1 2 3
Benefit Cost Discharging Charging Employment GDP, sales
cate
gory
impa
cts
stud
y sc
ope • Avoided externalities
• Differential cost in power and heat sector
• Transaction costs• Additional cost of control and
balancing power• Cost of grid expansion
• Avoided energy imports• Differential cost in the power sector• Transaction cost • Merit-order effect• Taxation of power • Public and private funding• Expansion of heat networks• Special equalisation scheme for
electricity-intensive enterprises
• Employment and sales• Energy price effect on GDP• Energy portfolio effect
Ragwitz et al. (2010)
RE technology is embedded in an enabling environment and Enabling Environment is created thru planning and Policy
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0.2 0.6 1.2 2
7.7
23
0
5
10
15
20
25
Kg
of O
il E
quiv
alent
/Day
Energy Consumption and Human Civilization
Primitive man Hunting man Primitive agricultural man Advanced Agricultural man Industrial man Technological man
Consumption trend for better livelihood is increasing
Compiled from Jose Goldemburg
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Poor People are lower at Energy Ladder
THE ENERGY PLANNING GRADUATION IN NEPAL (RE Example)
Time
Scale
BROADER VIEW OF ENERGY
MACRO ECONOMY
INTERMEDIATE
MICRO ECONOMY
Energy Sector
WHOLE ECONOMY- Industry, Agriculture, Energy Sector, etc.
Electricity, Petroleum, Solar, Biomass, etc.
Energy itself is not an end of development but the means for it. Energy is the prime mover of economic development
S.N.
Technology/ Resource Purposes Lighting Cooking/
Heating Transportation
Productive uses (SME use)
1 Mini/Micro/Pico Hydro 2 Solar PV (SHS) 3 Large scale Solar PV 3 Biogas (Dung, solid
waste)
4 Solar Thermal (Heater, Cooker, Dryer)
5 Biomass Based Solutions
6 Bio-fuel Based solutions 7 Wind Energy
RENEWABLE ENERGY AND APPLICATIONS
Chapter 5: Energy Supply Analysis and supply Projection
Energy Resource AssessmentNon-RE domestic resourcesRE Domestic resources, Hydropower supplyBiomass supplies analysis: Forest and non
forest products, analysis of agriculture residue and animal dung
Energy TransformationInternational Supply
Energy Supply Analysis and Projections
Main Objective is to assess a country’s energy supply potential
Finding the gap between demand and Supply Analysis considers:
Entire Fuel cycle Investment requirementOperational costsEnvironment and social impactsAs part of policy of supply, choice and
comparison of resources and technology
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Integrated Model Framework
Policy Goal
Energy Model
Economic Model
KeyEconomic Indicators
Air Quality Modelemissi
ons
expenditures
Wet/DryDeposition
Ambient Concentrations
Health Benefits Model
Health EffectsIncidence and Cost/Benefit
Meteorology Health/ValuationFunction
Regional-ScaleClimate Model
ClimateImpacts Models
Costs,Benefits, Adaptations
due to Climate
Global ClimateModel
JobsGDP
Household Income
Rural energy Database development& managementMacro
Economic data base
Rural electrification
data base Predefined process for input
Technology specifications
Environmental indicators’
Rural energy data Base
Forestry Data base
Agriculture Data Base
Household Survey
Data Preparation
Processing of Data for out put
Data Presentation
Project Evaluation
Policy Analysis Plan formulation
DECISIONS
Energy Supply Analysis and Projections
Supply analysis involves Characterization of country’s energy supply
system with its fuel mixes Assessment of domestic resources and
technologies Identification of supply gaps at various stages of
transformation Study the availability and prices of imports Evaluation of resource alternatives and
technology options Analysis the impacts of supplies on the energy
and economic sector
Energy Supply System
.Primary Energy
Conversion processing
Secondary Energy
Distribution Transmission
StorageFinal EnergyEnd-use
Devices
Useful Energy
LossLoss
Loss
T
T
T
T
Energy Supply System
Primary Energy: Crude Oil, Natural gas, Coal, Hydropower, Solar heat and Fuelwood. But coal and fuelwood could be the final energy
Secondary Energy: Petroleum products, charcoal, biogas, electricity
Supplied or Final energy: delivered and transported to the users
Useful energy: Energy services, work, heat and light – energy to the users after end-use devices
Energy Supply Analysis
Data Requirement (reference energy system a helpful tool) IEP requires more than just energy data. It needs data of
technology side ( energy supply system with respect to economics of technologies and impacts) and
resource side (reserves-in case of non-renewable, resources- in case of renewable) and their availability, accessibility, costs involved in fuel cycles and impacts i.e. GHG emissions, etc
Resources side deals with total reserves, addition and production rate, extraction cost
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Four stage representation of an energy system
Industry, e.g.-Process steam-Motive power
Services, e.g.-Cooling-Lighting
Households, e.g.-Space heat-Refrigeration
Agriculture, e.g.-Water supply
Transport, e.g.-Person-km
Demand for Energy Service
Industry, e.g.-Steam boilers-Machinery
Services, e.g.-Air conditioners-Light bulbs
Households, e.g.-Space heaters-Refrigerators
Agriculture, e.g.-Irrigation pumps
Transport, e.g.-Gasoline Car-Fuel Cell Bus
End-UseTechnologies
ProcessTechnologies
Primary Energy Supply
Fuel processing Plants e.g.-Oil refineries-Hydrogen prod.-Ethanol prod.
Power plants e.g.-Conventional Fossil Fueled -Solar-Wind-Nuclear-CCGT-Fuel Cells-Combined Heat and Power
Renewables e.g. -Biomass-Hydro
Mining e.g.-Crude oil-Natural gas-Coal
Imports e.g.-crude oil -oil products
Exports e.g.-oil products-coal
Stock changes
(Final Energy) (Useful Energy)
Data
Engineering data :to determine the size and extent of
Economic data: Cost of technology, investment
Social and environmental data will help on decision making
Climate Change related data
Energy Supply Analysis
Resource Assessment: Determine energy resources available to a country
Non-renewable (fossil) energy is assessed by geological methods. Resources, identified resources, undiscovered resources, reserves
Factors used: exploration, production rates, economics of production,
Renewable energy is assessed based on how economically it can be exploited or captured.
Factors used: production rates, economics of production
Energy Supply Analysis
Resource Assessment Evaluation of international energy resources
as they are part of a country’s resource base. International energy resources are important
from the perspective of price, availability, required infrastructure and other political uncertainties
Energy Supply Analysis
Technology evaluationIt deals with various extraction, transportation,
transmission, storage, distribution, conversion, transformation processes
It also deals with availability of technology, economic aspects of technology and their impacts on socio-ecological and economic sector.
Divided into three: non-renewable energy based technologies. Renewable energy technologies and electric system technologies
Energy Supply Analysis and Projections
Resource assessment Resource available (total) and accessible
resources (like renewable hydro. Forest etc.) Within assessment scope, domestic non-
renewable, renewable, international Information required for an assessment: Total
energy resources available annually, rate of addition to resources, possible production rate, extraction cost and time period of availability
A planner need to be specific for any information Supply analysis is not only geological or
engineering studies but also equally focuses on economic viability
Energy Supply: Domestic Non-renewable
Fundamental issues: Classification of Resources, identified
reserves, undiscovered resources, reserves (recoverable material),
Exploration of non-renewable resources is needed to determine how long energy supply can be made and cost of fuel supplied and added reserves and cost per units reserve
Production rate depends on market, technology
Resource and Reserve
ResourcesResources
ReserveReserve
Energy Resources Classification
Identified resources Undiscovered resources
Increasing degree of economic feasibility
Measured Indicated Inferred Hypothetical speculativeEconomically
Feasible Reserves Inferred reserves
Marginally Economic Marginal Reserves
Inferredmarginal
reserves
Subeconomic Demonstrated subeconomic resources
Inferred subeconomic reserves
Increasing degree of geological uncertainty
Energy Supply Analysis
Planners must know the physical features of production: technology, technical limitation, environment impacts, life of resources
Economics of production: marginal cost of production
Holding production, price fluctuation and future demand and price factor
Assessment of petroleum product, coal and Natural gas
Energy Supply Analysis
RenewableFundamental issues Definition of resource base (e.g. solar resource,
wind 59.3%) Production rate (e.g. biomass) Economics of production (MCP)
Rs
Time
Energy Supply Analysis
Renewable Resource Assessment Life cycle costing (renewable has high initial
capital cost, almost negligible fuel cost) Present Value is calculated Technical factor in different resources
Biomass Solar Wind Geothermal hydro
Energy Supply Analysis
Internal Energy supplyImported energy : petroleum, gas, coal and
electricityConsiderations: available resources and security
of supplyEconomic aspects (e.g. cost) and long term
agreements (spot, future), inflationInfrastructure required (e.g. for hydrogen, gas)
Energy Supply Analysis
Policy consideration and recommendations Objective analysis (clear, not deliberated, link
with economic system) Multidisciplinary approach (technical,
economics, etc) Definition or terms (sector, technology,
resources) Time horizon uncertainties
Questions regarding energy resource assessment
Total resources currently available (quantity and annual production capacity)
Rate of addition to the resources (exploration programme, technological development and construction of import facility)
Possible production rates of resourcesThe extraction cost
Energy Supply Analysis and Projections
Supply analysis mainly deals with: characterizing energy supply system and fuel mixes, assessment of domestic supplying resources and raw
materials and technologies, identification of supply gaps, study the availability and
price of energy imports, evaluation resources alternatives and technology
options Analysis of impacts due to increased supply on
economy, environment and energy and other sector
Supply Side Technology Interventions
Heat
BIOMASS
Mechanical Energy Electrical Energy
Heat
Illumination
Heat
WOOD CHIPPER
CHARCOAL KILN
COW-DUNG
AGRI. RESIDUES
GASIFICATION
ANAEROBIC DIGESTION
COMBUSTION
IC ENGINE
BOILER, COOK STOVES,
FURNACESHeat
Energy Supply Models
Energy Supply Models
These models either stand alone (e.g., MARKAL, WASP) or serve as a module of a energy system model (e.g., electricity market module, coal market module in US NEMS model)
Demand forecasts, energy resources and technologies characteristics, costs are the key driving variables
Can accommodate any policy instruments or constraints such as emission constraints
Methodologies for Energy Supply Planning
Optimization
Ensure cost minimization meeting all constraints such as resource availability, system reliability, environmental quality (if desired)
More appropriate when a large number of supply alternatives are available
Example: MARKAL, EFOM, WASP
Simulation
Simulates behavior of energy consumers and producers under various signals (e.g. price, income levels)
Forecasts can be sensitive to starting conditions and behavioral parameters
Energy Supply Model: MARKAL
MARKAL is a “bottom-up” model with detailed representation of energy resources and production technologies
It follows the principal of reference energy system and finds a least cost set of technologies to satisfy end-use energy service demands and user-specified constraints
MARKAL is found extensively used for both academic and consulting studies
The MARKAL Energy PerspectiveThe MARKAL Energy Perspective
Industry, e.g.-Process steam-Motive power
Services, e.g.-Cooling-Lighting
Households, e.g.-Space heat-Refrigeration
Agriculture, e.g.-Water supply
Transport, e.g.-Person-km
Demand for Energy Service
Industry, e.g.-Steam boilers-Machinery
Services, e.g.-Air conditioners-Light bulbs
Households, e.g.-Space heaters-Refrigerators
Agriculture, e.g.-Irrigation pumps
Transport, e.g.-Gasoline Car-Fuel Cell Bus
End-UseTechnologies
ConversionTechnologies
Primary Energy Supply
Fuel processingPlants e.g.-Oil refineries-Hydrogen prod.-Ethanol prod.
Power plants e.g.-ConventionalFossil Fueled
-Solar-Wind-Nuclear-CCGT-Fuel Cells-Combined Heat
and Power
Renewables e.g. -Biomass-Hydro
Mining e.g.-Crude oil-Natural gas-Coal
Imports e.g.-crude oil -oil products
Exports e.g.-oil products-coal
Stock changes
(Final Energy) (Useful Energy)
MARKAL: MARKet ALlocation)
Developed under the Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program of IEA
Linear programming type optimization ; based on Reference Energy System
Detailed modeling of energy resources and supply chains
Includes electricity generation and transmission planning
Energy Supply Model: MARKAL
Electricity Supply Model: WASP
WASP stands for Wien Automatic System Planning
It was originally developed by the Tennessee Valley Authority and Oak Ridge National Laboratory of the US for International Association of Atomic Energy
It is the most well-known and widely used optimization model for examining medium- to long-term expansion options for electrical generating systems
The software is distributed for use by electric utilities and regulation agencies in over 90 countries, as well as to 12 international organizations including The World Bank
Rural energy Demand supply Balancing
Input Data Requirements
Demand side Data
Supply side Data
Analytical Task
Energy consuming
Sector
Energy supply Sector
Coping with future
uncertainties
Scenario Development& Policy
Formulation