energy security sharif university june 1st 2014 thanks to sami andoura notre europe – jacques...
TRANSCRIPT
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ENERGY SECURITYSharif University
June 1st 2014
Thanks to Sami Andoura Notre Europe – Jacques Delors Institute for many input
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What to know to tackle energy security
• Geology – the stone age did not end by lack of stone !….
• Geography - always look at maps• Technology –It changes, but speed is unknown?• Historical evolution –long memories….• Demography and social acceptance / environment• Geopolitics – International law -Economics…and understand visions, and….. keep common sense
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Some Historical points
• Prehistory: domestic fires 800 to 400,000 years ago
• Silk road and the trans African route until 15th century.• The British Empire: watch the map• The great game – capital Kashgar• War in Europe and then “Coal and steel pact”• The coal story, then oil, gas, LNG, GTL,….• The path to energy efficiency • The new great game –revival of the silk road?• A new world…
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SILK ROAD – Is it back on the map?
Why did the roman empire collapse ? Why did the silk road collapse in the 15th century?
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SUPPLY SECURITY – British Empire geostrategic view
Straight of MalaccaCape Town
Gibraltar
PanamaHong Kong
Kashgar
Straight of Magellan
Channel
Aden & Ormuz
Suez
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World Oil Transit Chokepoints
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CRUDE OIL FLOW
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The Strait of Malacca, linking the Indian and Pacific Oceans is the shortest sea route between the Middle East and growing Asian markets.
More than 15 million bbl/d, no wander why China is worried about Malacca!
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Increased oil exports from the Caspian Sea region make the
Bosporus Straits one of the busiest and most dangerous chokepoints in the world supplying Western and Southern Europe.
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The energy supply problem is not going to disappear any time soon ….More than 9 billion customers thirsty for energy by 2050!
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How is Iran Energy triangle ? How is it managed?
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What will be the price target for Iranian gas? – remember the GTL gas price negotiation?The train might not come back soon to the station… not only for GTL!
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Dilemma on energy security
Self sufficiency
Interdependency
Bilateral Agreements
FOR IMPORT & EXPORT
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Would you like to see a similar map for ME and Central Asia?
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No one expected such an event. Back in 2005, regasification terminals were being planned on US West Coast
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What if coal become cleaner? What if RES does not take off ? What about public acceptance in Europe on nuclear ?
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Iran share?
What if there is also in European unconventional revolution?
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What will be Iranian share? – it missed the 2015 opportunity!
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What is Iran view?
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But, how far, how fast will unconventional go?
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IRAN
and export
WasteEnergy efficiency Cost of development
Access to technology
Deal with neighbours
Some self sufficiency… but not onlyWhich alliances?
Increasingly relevant- not only in Iran
and, … what about other natural resources….
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Questions on energy security in Iran
• Why so much oil produced and so little capacity to refine –no flexibility no quality?• Why so much energy (and water) wasted?• Could there be in this region a local version of the “1950’s coal and steel pact”? why
not a regional interconnection for gas, electricity, water and products? More interdependency, less risk of serious conflicts, more security ?
• Promote a regional peak shaving mechanism?• Move away from a power game based on the illusion of self sufficiency to a regional
collective better economic development?• “East or West” choice or “Region and East and West and South” alliance? A no brainer!• Energy, yes but not only: water, technology, efficiency, health, other raw material,…
SELF SUFFICIENCY: A MYTH, even Maoists are moving away from the concept of “rely on your own forces”.
INTER DEPENDENCY : THE BEST PATH TO SECURITY and lower cost
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BACK UP
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