energy security – need for diversification arild moe energy security and energy efficiency:...
TRANSCRIPT
Energy Security – need for diversification
Arild Moe
Energy security and energy efficiency: Possibilities for Slovak-Norwegian cooperation
Bratislava, 4 October, 2007
Traditional concept - Energy Security Security of supply
– Post 1973 concept – oil focus
– ”Reliable supplies at reasonable prices”
– A seller-buyer relationship
Gas as alternative energy– diversification away from oil and coal
Now: Concern over gas supplies – little flexibility
– Russia most important supplier to Europe
Energy security - a broader concept Security of investment
– Free or at least predictable market conditions upstream • not in place in all main gas supplying
nations
Security of demand– Market conditions downstream that justify long
term investments• Long term contracts vs. spot sales• 1990s: Buyers strengthened• After 2000 – Resource owners again gaining
strength
Proper balance between producer and consumer interests not found
Interdependence between East and West not fully acknowledged
Political dialogue wanting– US-Russian energy dialogue dead– Russia-EU dialogue stalled
Has energy security deteriorated?
New EU-members: Increased dependence on Russian energy supplies for the EU as a whole – 25% of gas consumption
Russian gas supplies: Still reliable?
Russian gas diplomacy The Baltic pipeline – Nordstream:
– Increasing security of supply – or splitting EU? The conflict with Ukraine
– Unintended consequences? Demand for better downstream access and
threats to redirect exports– Not so seriously meant?
The Shtokman project– Too much back and forth
Russian ’energy superpower’ rhetoric overblown– but makes buyers want to diversify away from Russian
energy Russian down-stream integration not wellcomed
The real problem
Russia needs gas investments upstream Discrepancy between projected deliveries and
firm production plans by 2010-15 some 100 BCM – Independents important balancer, + 100-200 BCM? But
independence more and more curtailed– Central Asian gas: 100 BCM – how reliable is it?
Serious rationalisation of domestic consumption required
Pipeline refurbishment – looming technical problems?
Decision paralysis? Time is getting short
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Belgium
France
The Netherlands
Poland
Spain
United Kingdom
Germany
Czech Republic
Italy
Denmark
Austria
Bulgaria
Croatia
Finland
Greece
Hungary
Latvia
Lithuania
Romania
Serbia
Slovakia
Slovenia
Switzerland
Russia
Norway
Norway and Russia in European gas markets 2006 (BCM)
The Norwegian potential
Source: Ministry of Petroleum and energy/NPD
Norwegian gas export infrastructure
Source: Ministry of Petroleum and energy/NPD
Outlook for energy security in Europe Direct Norwegian supplies cannot replace Russian
gas – but is very important in some markets and as part of integrated European market
Bilateral deals between importing countries and Russia understandable – but a common European policy would be more effective
More integration of the European markets will enhance energy security if short term supply problems arise
A broader approach to diversification needed to increase long term energy security
