energy price projections

8/10/2019 Energy Price Projections

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Sources:

Energy Information AdministrationAnnual Energy Outlook 2014 for prices through 2040, except as noted.

Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) Mini-CAM Model for price extrapolation after 2040, except as noted.

Energy Information Administration State Energy Data System for wood and biomass waste prices in 2012; assumed constant in real dollars.

Methanex for bulk methanol prices and MIT for estimated methanol distribution costs and taxes (see note in Methanol row).

All energy prices based on fuel HHV

Units 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Residential $(2012)/MMBtu 10.98 10.46 10.39 11.20 11.00 10.68 11.01 11.46 11.63 11.59 11.80

Commercial $(2012)/MMBtu 8.96 8.11 8.31 9.09 8.92 8.72 9.01 9.41 9.55 9.49 9.68

Industrial $(2012)/MMBtu 5.09 3.77 4.59 4.80 4.94 5.15 5.43 5.85 5.95 5.79 5.93

Transportation $(2012)/MMBtu 15.90 14.64 15.45 15.50 15.64 15.73 15.81 15.99 15.91 15.62 15.63

Electri c Utility $(2012)/MMBtu 4.88 3.44 4.32 4.47 4.43 4.47 4.69 5.06 5.18 5.07 5.24









Distillate Fuel Oil (Diesel) $(2012)/MMBtu 28.37 28.80 28.31 26.88 25.87 25.51 25.52 25.79 26.35 26.80 27.30

Motor Gasoline $(2012)/MMBtu 30.32 30.68 29.71 28.13 26.41 25.53 25.16 25.11 25.23 25.59 25.95

E85 $(2012)/MMBtu 44.13 35.06 33.54 31.85 31.42 28.60 25.72 25.07 24.92 25.61 25.84

Hydrogen Analysis Resource Center: Energy Pr ice Ass ump t ions

Natural Gas Prices

Electricity Prices

Transportation Fuels

Propane Prices


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2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080

14.34 14.61 14.99 15.15 15.28 15.62 15.98 16.71 17.44 18.17 19.03 19.81 20.53 21.19 21.78

11.75 11.95 12.26 12.37 12.46 12.76 13.08 13.68 14.27 14.87 15.58 16.21 16.80 17.34 17.82

7.57 7.76 8.04 8.09 8.13 8.34 8.59 8.99 9.38 9.77 10.24 10.66 11.04 11.39 11.71

17.75 18.09 18.59 18.80 18.94 19.25 19.67 20.57 21.47 22.37 23.43 24.39 25.27 26.08 26.80

7.09 7.29 7.57 7.63 7.68 7.90 8.16 8.53 8.90 9.28 9.72 10.12 10.48 10.82 11.12

26.66 26.84 27.02 27.15 27.27 27.45 27.64 28.91 30.17 31.44 32.93 34.28 35.52 36.65 37.67

23.91 24.14 24.37 24.54 24.69 24.92 25.17 26.33 27.48 28.63 29.99 31.21 32.35 33.38 34.31

24.50 24.73 24.98 25.16 25.33 25.56 25.84 27.02 28.20 29.38 30.78 32.03 33.20 34.25 35.21

27.82 28.01 28.20 28.33 28.44 28.62 28.82 30.14 31.46 32.78 34.33 35.74 37.03 38.21 39.28

37.57 37.82 38.08 38.30 38.37 38.58 38.83 38.51 38.10 38.22 38.37 38.43 38.30 38.10 37.87

31.73 31.98 32.25 32.46 32.53 32.75 33.01 32.73 32.38 32.49 32.61 32.67 32.56 32.39 32.19

22.65 22.91 23.19 23.41 23.52 23.76 24.05 23.85 23.60 23.67 23.77 23.80 23.72 23.60 23.46

32.29 32.65 32.96 33.25 33.44 33.80 34.19 33.90 33.54 33.65 33.78 33.83 33.72 33.54 33.34

32.32 32.60 32.91 33.15 33.45 33.96 34.53 34.88 35.14 35.32 35.39 35.44 35.48 35.51 35.50

30.13 30.40 30.79 31.14 31.49 32.06 32.67 33.01 33.26 33.42 33.49 33.54 33.57 33.60 33.59

30.03 30.68 31.63 32.60 33.60 34.49 35.49 35.86 36.20 36.53 36.78 36.94 36.99 36.96 36.84

25.46 25.83 26.23 26.57 26.98 27.50 28.07 28.35 28.57 28.71 28.77 28.81 28.84 28.86 28.86


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The following are used for extrapolating EIA data past 2040

2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075

Coal Delivered to Utilities 1975$/GJ 0.78 0.79 0.81 0.82 0.84 0.85 0.86 0.88Wellhead Natural Gas 1975$/GJ 1.14 1.19 1.24 1.30 1.36 1.41 1.46 1.51Natural Gas Delivered to Utilities 1975$/GJ 1.73 1.80 1.86 1.93 2.02 2.09 2.15 2.20

Crude Oil Price 1975$/GJ 2.36 2.40 2.44 2.47 2.48 2.49 2.50 2.50

Delivered Diesel 1975$/GJ 4.69 4.74 4.78 4.80 4.81 4.82 4.82 4.83Average Electricity 1975$/GJ 6.20 6.15 6.09 6.11 6.13 6.14 6.12 6.09

Dry Biomass at Farmgate 1975$/GJ 1.05 1.08 1.12 1.15 1.19 1.21 1.23 1.24

Ethanol (cellulosic) 1975$/GJ 6.94 6.95 6.96 6.98 6.99 6.99 6.96 6.94Ethanol (corn) 1975$/GJ 8.12 8.20 8.28 8.36 8.42 8.45 8.46 8.46

Coal Delivered to Utilities 2007$/short ton 52.50 53.33 54.23 55.16 56.11 57.08 58.00 58.83

Wellhead Natural Gas 2007$/mcf 3.90 4.08 4.25 4.43 4.64 4.83 5.01 5.17Natural Gas Delivered to Utilities 2007$/mcf 5.90 6.14 6.38 6.62 6.91 7.16 7.36 7.53Crude Oil Price 2007$/bbl 45.54 46.39 47.05 47.59 47.85 48.05 48.20 48.33

Delivered Diesel 2007$/gallon 2.17 2.19 2.21 2.22 2.22 2.22 2.23 2.23

Average Electricity 2007cents/kWh 7.05 6.99 6.91 6.93 6.96 6.97 6.95 6.91Dry Biomass at Farmgate 2007$/MMBtu 3.50 3.60 3.72 3.84 3.95 4.04 4.10 4.14

Ethanol (cellulosic) 2007$/MMBtu 23.12 23.14 23.20 23.26 23.29 23.27 23.20 23.11

Ethanol (corn) 2007$/MMBtu 27.05 27.33 27.59 27.84 28.04 28.15 28.19 28.17

Hydrogen Analysis Resource Center: Price Data from JGCRI Mini-CAM Model


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2080 2085 2090 2095 2100

0.89 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.90

1.55 1.59 1.62 1.63 1.632.24 2.26 2.26 2.23 2.242.51 2.51 2.52 2.62 2.564.83 4.82 4.83 4.92 4.86

6.05 6.02 5.99 5.94 5.961.25 1.26 1.26 1.25 1.266.90 6.86 6.81 6.75 6.768.43 8.39 8.34 8.26 8.22

59.61 60.28 60.76 60.88 60.72

5.31 5.44 5.54 5.56 5.587.66 7.73 7.75 7.65 7.6748.38 48.40 48.57 50.54 49.33

2.23 2.23 2.23 2.27 2.24

6.87 6.84 6.80 6.75 6.764.18 4.19 4.19 4.18 4.20

22.99 22.85 22.67 22.47 22.5228.08 27.96 27.77 27.51 27.39

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