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TRANSCRIPT
Energy Policy Agenda after the Great East Japan Earthquake
The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
Chairman & CEO Masakazu Toyoda
June 3, 2011 (Friday)
IEEJ: June 2011
Table of Contents
1. Short-Term Agenda(1) Stabilization of Fukushima Daiichi NPP(2) Response to the electricity shortage(3) Measures for supply/demand balance of oil and gas
2. Medium- to Long-Term Agenda: Review of the Basic Energy Plan(1) Current Basic Energy Plan(2) Basic principles(3) Nuclear energy policy(4) Energy conservation policy(5) Renewable energy policy(6) Fossil fuel energy(7) Important points
2
IEEJ: June 2011
1. Short-Term Agenda(1) Response to the NPP Accident ①
1) Stabilization of Fukushima Daiichi NPP
Installed capacity of Fukushima Daiichi is 4,696MW, while that of Fukushima Daini is 4,400MW.
As of April 2011, there are 54 nuclear reactors in Japan: 19 in operation and 35 either under periodic inspection or shutdown, and another 2 under construction. Total installed capacity is 48,960MW. Nuclear energy accounts for 25% on an installed capacity basis and 30% on a power generation basis in fiscal year 2007.
For the time being, TEPCO will steadily carry out the revised 2 step roadmap for stabilization. At other NPPs, utmost efforts are being made to ensure safety focusing on measures against tsunami based on the Urgent Safety Measures. Operation of Hamaoka NPP (2,617MW) was suspended in response to the Prime Minister’s request on May 7.
Unless the reactors resume operation after planned outages, there will be serious energy shortages throughout Japan. Thus, steady restoration of NPPs is essential.
3
IEEJ: June 2011
1. Short-Term Agenda(1) Response to the NPP Accident ②
(Fig. 1) Roadmap announced by TEPCO (Revised on May 17)
4From the information provided by TEPCO
Fig.1
IEEJ: June 2011
1. Short-Term Agenda(1) Response to the NPP Accident ③
2) Response to compensation issues Amount of compensation is estimated to reach ¥3 – 5 trillion. Size and scheme of compensation are under review by the committee.
An expeditious response is required based on the Act on Compensation for Nuclear Damages.
3) Response to harmful rumors Import restrictions on Japanese products (agricultural, fishery and
industrial products), and drastic decline of foreign tourists to Japan At least the following 4 responses are necessary:
a. Provision of detailed information b. Issuance of product safety certificates by the JapaneseGovernment, etc. ,whenever necessaryc. Explanation of the current situation by the Japanese Governmentd. Giving publicity the safety of Japan by visiting foreigners
5
IEEJ: June 2011
1. Short-Term Agenda(2) Response to the Electricity Shortage ①
◆ Outlook for electricity supply this summerTEPCO will maximize the interchange of electricity with Tohoku Electric. As a result, TEPCO’s supply capacity is projected to be 53,800MW (end of July) while that of Tohoku Electric is expected to be 13,700MW (end of August). Thus, the required minimum reductions in demand are 10.3% for TEPCO and 7.4% for Tohoku Electric.
6
Tohoku Electric TEPCOEnd of July End of August End of July End of August
Forecasts for electricity supply 12,800MW 12,300MW 55,200MW 56,200MWAmount of electricity interchange +1,400MW +1,400MW ▲1,400MW ▲1,400MWElectricity supply after interchange 14,200MW 13,700MW 53,800MW 54,800MWDemand projection 14,800MW 14,800MW 60,000MW 60,000MWRequired minimum reduction in demand 4.1% 7.4% 10.3% 8.7%
IEEJ: June 2011
1. Short-Term Agenda (2) Response to the Electricity Shortage ②
◆ Target reduction in demand: 15% in all areas covered by TEPCO and Tohoku Electric
(1) Large lot customers (business operators whose contract demand is 5,000MW or more)
－ 637 companies are participating in the voluntary action plan led by the Japan Federation of Economic Organization (end of April)
(2) Small-scale customers (business operators whose contract demand is less than 5,000MW)
－ Establishment of voluntary restraint programs－ Announcement of “Standard Format for Energy Conservation Action Plan”
(3) Household customers－ Announcement and promotion of “Measures for Energy Conservation in
Households”Note: Establishment of energy conservation programs by the national
government, incorporated administrative agencies and public interest corporations
7
IEEJ: June 2011
1. Short-Term Agenda (2) Response to the Electricity Shortage ③
◆ Energy conservation by industry and households
8
295
94
36 28 16
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
照明間引き
冷房設定温度
OA機器省エネモード
ｴﾚﾍﾞｰﾀ・ｴｽｶﾚｰﾀ間引き
その他
(万kW)
オフィス 卸小売店 飲食店
学校 ホテル ･旅館 病院
その他
Power saving by energy conservation measures taken by office and commercial buildings in TEPCO’s area
(estimated maximum: 4,000MW)
Both figures are based onestimations by the IEE.
2.95
0.94
0.36 0.28 0.160.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Reducing lighting Raising preset air-conditioningtemperatures
Switching officeautomation
machines intoenergy-saving
modes
Reducingescalators/elevators
in operation
Others
(GW)
Office Buildings Wholesale & retail storesRestaurants SchoolsHotels & Inns HospitalsOthers
Raise the
temperature
setting by 1
degree
Celsius on
cooling
equipment,
64
Clean the
filters of
cooling
equipment,
44
Do washing
and cleaning
in the
morning or
nighttime, 43
Disconnect
audio-visual
equipment
(refrain from
leaving
equipment on
standby), 38
Raise the
temperature
of the
refrigerator
and refrain
from
overstuffing,
37
Carefully
switch off
lights, 36
Change PCpower
setting*, 27
Refrain from
using thewater-spray
function of
electric toilet
seats, 15
Lower the
brightness
and volume
on TV sets, 3
Raise the temperature setting by 1ºC on room air conditioner, 64
Clean the filter of room air conditioner, 44
IEEJ: June 2011
1. Short-Term Agenda (3) Measures for demand/supply balance of oil and gas ①
◆ Impact on worldwide demand/supply of oil and gas
Reducing factors◇ Reduction of demand due to slowing down of economic growth, general
decline in industrial activity
Growth factors (expected to have a larger impact)◇ Additional operations of oil- and gas-fired thermal power plants by
TEPCO and Tohoku Electric◇ Additional demand by other electric power companies
〇 Possibility of delay in restarting units after periodic inspection〇 Increase of in-house power generation
◇ Amount of increase consists of 120-150 thousand B/D of oil and 9.9-12.2 million tons of LNG.
Supply of both oil and LNG seems to be assured as a whole.◇ Extra supply is available on international markets.◇ Can use various procurement channels.◇ However, there are some restraints on supply/demand (especially LNG).
9
IEEJ: June 2011
1. Short-Term Agenda (3) Measures for demand/supply balance of oil and gas ②
◆ Energy-sector fundamentals
(生産と消費) (OPEC生産余力)
何かある？ 4/26の5頁
OPEC Surplus Production Capacity
Source: Prepared from IEA “Oil Market Report” 10
799
58
468
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2001年
03月
2001年
10月
2002年
03月
2002年
09月
2003年
03月
2003年
09月
2004年
02月
2004年
07月
2004年
12月
2005年
05月
2005年
10月
2006年
03月
2006年
08月
2007年
01月
2007年
06月
2007年
11月
2008年
04月
2008年
09月
2009年
02月
2009年
07月
2009年
12月
2010年
05月
2010年
10月
2011年
03月
（万B/D）
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
3,200
3,300
2003-1
Q 3Q200
4-1Q 3Q
2005-1
Q 3Q200
6-1Q 3Q
2007-1
Q 3Q200
8-1Q 3Q
2009-1
Q 3Q201
0-1Q 3Q
2011-1
Q 3Q45
55
65OECD在庫日数（右軸）
対OPEC需要（左軸）
OPEC生産（左軸）
（万B/D) （日数)
OPEC Production and OECD Inventories
OECD inventory day cover is 59 days at the 2011 1Q
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
3,200
3,300
2003-1
Q 3Q200
4-1Q 3Q
2005-1
Q 3Q200
6-1Q 3Q
2007-1
Q 3Q200
8-1Q 3Q
2009-1
Q 3Q201
0-1Q 3Q
2011-1
Q 3Q45
55
65OECD Inventory (Right axis)
Call on OPEC (Left axis)
OPEC Production (Left axis)
（10,000 B/D) （Day Cover)
7.99
0.58
4.68
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Mar-01
Oct-01
Mar-02
Sep-02M
ar-03Sep-03Feb-04Jul-04D
ec-04M
ay-05O
ct-05M
ar-06A
ug-06Jan-07Jun-07N
ov-07A
pr-08Sep-08Feb-09Jul-09D
ec-09M
ay-10O
ct-10M
ar-11
（Million B/D）
IEEJ: June 2011
1. Short-Term Agenda (3) Measures for demand/supply balance of oil and gas ③
◆ Speculative aspects
-100000
-50000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2006/6/13
2006/8/13
2006/10/13
2006/12/13
2007/2/13
2007/4/13
2007/6/13
2007/8/13
2007/10/13
2007/12/13
2008/2/13
2008/4/13
2008/6/13
2008/8/13
2008/10/13
2008/12/13
2009/2/13
2009/4/13
2009/6/13
2009/8/13
2009/10/13
2009/12/13
2010/2/13
2010/4/13
2010/6/13
2010/8/13
2010/10/13
2010/12/13
2011/2/13
2011/4/13
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
マネージドマネー：非当業者
WTI価格（右軸）
（枚数＝1,000バレル） （ドル／バレル）
“Managed Money” and WTI prices
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
Jan-
07Fe
b-07
Mar
-07
Apr
-07
May
-07
Jun-
07Ju
l-07
Aug
-07
Sep-
07O
ct-0
7N
ov-0
7D
ec-0
7Ja
n-08
Feb-
08M
ar-0
8A
pr-0
8M
ay-0
8Ju
n-08
Jul-0
8A
ug-0
8Se
p-08
Oct
-08
Nov
-08
Dec
-08
Jan-
09Fe
b-09
Mar
-09
Apr
-09
May
-09
Jun-
09Ju
l-09
Aug
-09
Sep-
09O
ct-0
9N
ov-0
9D
ec-0
9Ja
n-10
Feb-
10M
ar-1
0A
pr-1
0M
ay-1
0Ju
n-10
Jul-1
0A
ug-1
0Se
p-10
Oct
-10
Nov
-10
Dec
-10
Jan-
11Fe
b-11
Mar
-11
Apr
-11 6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
WTIBrentDow Ind.
(US$/bbl) (US$)
WTI (Brent) and NY stock price
Prepared based on NYMEX and US CFTC information Prepared based on NYMEX information 11
-100000
-50000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2006
/6/1
320
06/8
/13
2006
/10/
1320
06/1
2/13
2007
/2/1
320
07/4
/13
2007
/6/1
320
07/8
/13
2007
/10/
1320
07/1
2/13
2008
/2/1
320
08/4
/13
2008
/6/1
320
08/8
/13
2008
/10/
1320
08/1
2/13
2009
/2/1
320
09/4
/13
2009
/6/1
320
09/8
/13
2009
/10/
1320
09/1
2/13
2010
/2/1
320
10/4
/13
2010
/6/1
320
10/8
/13
2010
/10/
1320
10/1
2/13
2011
/2/1
320
11/4
/13 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Managed Money
WTI
（1 contract＝1,000 bbl） （$／bbl）
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
Jan-
07Fe
b-07
Mar
-07
Apr
-07
May
-07
Jun-
07Ju
l-07
Aug
-07
Sep-
07O
ct-0
7N
ov-0
7D
ec-0
7Ja
n-08
Feb-
08M
ar-0
8A
pr-0
8M
ay-0
8Ju
n-08
Jul-0
8A
ug-0
8Se
p-08
Oct
-08
Nov
-08
Dec
-08
Jan-
09Fe
b-09
Mar
-09
Apr
-09
May
-09
Jun-
09Ju
l-09
Aug
-09
Sep-
09O
ct-0
9N
ov-0
9D
ec-0
9Ja
n-10
Feb-
10M
ar-1
0A
pr-1
0M
ay-1
0Ju
n-10
Jul-1
0A
ug-1
0Se
p-10
Oct
-10
Nov
-10
Dec
-10
Jan-
11Fe
b-11
Mar
-11
Apr
-11 6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
WTIBrentDow Ind.
(US$/bbl) (US$)
IEEJ: June 2011
2. Medium- to Long-Term Agenda〇 Review of the Basic Energy Plan ①
(1) Current Basic Energy Plan (2009-2030) Double the self-sufficiency of energy supply and independent development rate of fossil fuel.
Increase the self-sufficiency rate of energy supply* from 38% to 70%.*Take into consideration the independent development of resources in addition to the conventionalself-sufficiency of energy supply (domestically produced energy + nuclear energy).
Raise the rate of zero-emission power sources from 34% to 70%. Decrease CO2 emissions from “daily life” (residential sector) by half. Maintain and enhance the world’s highest energy efficiency in the industrial sector. A group of Japanese companies to achieve top share in the international energy products market.
① Assure energy security to protect the Japanese people.② Achieve low-carbon type economic growth, which can be a model for the world.③ Reform “daily life” that Japanese people can be aware of. ④ Contribute to global CO2 emissions reductions and attract foreign investment to Japan.
Decrease CO2 emissions from energy production by at least 30% by 2030 compared with 1990, by thoroughly promoting the policies of this plan. This is a very ambitious goal, corresponding to approximately half of the CO2 emissions reduction target of 80% by 2050 from the 1990 level.
12
IEEJ: June 2011
Reference: Basic Energy Plan: Energy Composition
○ Raise self-sufficiency of energy supply (self-sufficiency + independent development) from 38% to 70%.○ Reduce CO2 emissions by 30% from 1990 level.
592 517
13% decrease
(13%)
(24%)
(17%)
(16%)(3%)
(27%)
Hydro accounts for approx. 5%
Nuclear power
Nuclear power
Natural gas
Natural gas
Renewables, etc.
Renewables, etc.Coal
Coal
PetroleumPetroleum
FY2007 (Actual) FY2030 (Estimate)
Self-sufficiency rate of energy supply is approx. 40%
Out of 60% of fossil fuel dependence, about a half
comes under self-development interests
(approx. 30%)
GL (oil equivalent)
13
IEEJ: June 2011
14
Reference: Basic Energy Plan: Composition of Power Sources
○ New construction and extension of 14 nuclear reactors; raise the operating rate from 60% to 90%.○ Introduce renewable energy to 2.4 times the current level (15 times excluding hydropower).○ Raise the share of zero-emission power sources from 34% to 70%.
Hydro: 1,070Geothermal: 100Solar: 590Wind: 190etc.
Hydro: 710Geothermal: 30Solar: 20Wind: 30etc.
FY2007 FY2007 (Actual) FY2030 FY2030 (Estimate)
Renewables, etc.
Renewables, etc.
Renewables, etc.
Nuclear power Nuclear power
Nuclear power
Nuclear power
CoalCoal
Coal
Coal
Petroleum, etc. Petroleum, etc. Petroleum, etc.
Petroleum, etc.
Zero-emission power sources 34%
Zero-emission power sources approx. 70%
Some of coal-fired generation
facilities have CCS
approx. 40%
approx. 20%
approx. 10%
approx. 20%
approx. 10%
approx. 20%
approx. 50%
approx. 10%
approx. 10%
(10MW) (100GWh)【generation capacity】 【electricity generation】
Renewables, etc.
14
IEEJ: June 2011
2. Medium- to Long-Term Agenda 〇 Review of the Basic Energy Plan ②
(2) Basic principles Importance of a comprehensive perspective Comprehensive perspective
a. Standpoint of security b. Standpoint of global warmingc. Standpoint of costs d. Standpoint of available potential reserves/energy density, etc.
Unfortunately, there is no energy which can satisfy the first four standpoints.◇ Oil has problems concerning all of a, b and c.◇ Gas is superior to oil concerning a and b, while it is related to oil concerning c.◇ Coal is superior to oil concerning a and c, but has significant problems
concerning b. ◇ Photovoltaic power has advantages concerning a and b, but problems
concerning c and d. ◇ Wind and geothermal power, etc. have advantages concerning a, b and c, but
problems concerning d.
Note: Photovoltaic power requires a land area equivalent to that inside the YamanoteLine in order to generate 1 million kW of electricity.Wind power requires 3.5 times more land area than photovoltaic power.
15
IEEJ: June 2011
2. Medium- to Long-Term Agenda 〇 Review of the Basic Energy Plan ③
◆ Security ◆ Global warming
(国産度合) (CO2排出量のグラフ)
◆ Costs ◆ Energy density
16
Energy White Paper
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000
日本
米国
イギ
リス
ドイ
ツ
フラ
ンス
スペ
イン
デン
マー
ク
人/1ha 森林・耕地を除く面積に対する人口密度
The land equivalent to the area inside the Yamanote Line is required for photovoltaic power to generate the amount of electricity produced by one nuclear unit (1000MW), while the land equivalent to the area 3.5 times as large as the area inside the Yamanote Line is required for wind power to generate the same amount. It is extremely difficult to secure the land as thearea excluding forests and farm land is extremely small.
発電方式 発電単価（円／kWh）設備利用率
（％）水力 8.2～13.3 45石油 10.0～17.3 30～80
ＬＮＧ 5.8～7.1 60～80石炭 5.0～6.5 70～80
原子力 4.8～6.2 70～85太陽光 46 12風力 10～14 20
Source: White Paper on Energy, METI
Prepared by IEE
PowerSource
Generation Cost（yen／kWh）CapacityFactor（％）
Hydro 8.2～13.3 45Oil 10.0～17.3 30～80
LNG 5.8～7.1 60～80Coal 5.0～6.5 70～80
Nuclear 4.8～6.2 70～85Solar 46 12Wind 10～14 20
Italy Japan Germany France US UK Canada
Nuclear power as a domestic source
Nuclear power as an imported source
Population density against areas excepting woods and cultivated lands
Japan US UKGermany
France
Spain
Denmark
self-
suffi
cien
cy ra
tio
Person/ 1ha
IEEJ: June 2011
2. Medium- to Long-Term Agenda 〇 Review of the Basic Energy Plan ④
(3) Nuclear energy policy Four comprehensive standpoints: Nuclear energy has advantages concerning all
of a to d.
However, all possible safety measures must be taken to achieve safer nuclear energy.
- A meticulous study to identify the cause of the current accident (earthquake, tsunami or other factor?) is essential. - Safety must be secured through international cooperation.
Best practices must be shared among operators.
Global perspective is also important.- How and on what grounds does each country implement respective policies?
Risk management- Must assume unexpected problems.
17
IEEJ: June 2011
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
最大導入 基本計画
2010 2020 2030
万kW
4,896
6,0156,806
Reference: Installed Capacity of Nuclear Energy
More than 40 years since established
Less than 40 years since established
Fukushima Daiichi
FukushimaDaini
Under construction
Planning of construction/expansion
新増設計画 741 1532建設中 414 414既設40年以内 4,896 3,555 2,122 うち福島 910 440（第二） 0既設40年超 1,305 2,738
うち福島 470（第一） 910（第一、第二）
Maximum introduction Basic Plan
Fukushima out of above
Fukushima out of above
Less than 40 years since established
More than 40 years since established
Under construction
Planning of construction/expansion
(Daiichi)(Daiichi and Daini)
(Daini)
(10MW)
18
IEEJ: June 2011
2. Medium- to Long-Term Agenda 〇 Review of the Basic Energy Plan ⑤
(4) Energy conservation policy 1 Four standpoints: This policy has advantages concerning 3
standpoints except d) potential reserves.
Make Japan’s advantages even stronger. (see next page)A 10% electricity saving is equivalent to 13,500MW of nuclear power and95,000MW of photovoltaic power.
Especially, there is still huge scope for conserving energy in households and workplaces, which will also boost industrial competitiveness.
(High performance, new materials, new products) But there may be limits on energy conservation by industry as it has
already made the greatest progress. It is also important to convert the industrial structure, and to change
life styles and work styles.(The current energy conservation efforts will serve as a trigger.)
19
IEEJ: June 2011
2. Medium- to Long-Term Agenda 〇 Review of the Basic Energy Plan ⑥
(4) Energy conservation policy 2
20
Trend of energy consumption intensity by country
Source: Website of Agency for Natural Resources and Energy
US
Korea
Germany
France
EU 15UK
Japan
France
Germany
Japan
Korea
US
UK
EU 15
Benchmark year of reduction rate
Crude oil conversion of tons/US$1,000 (as of 2000)
IEEJ: June 2011
2. Medium- to Long-Term Agenda 〇 Review of the Basic Energy Plan ⑦
(5) Renewable energy policy
Maximum introduction of especially photovoltaic power, wind power and geothermal power is necessary.
Comprehensive perspectives: c) costs and d) energy densityare challenges to be solved.
How much renewable energy can be stably supplied to the grid and by how much can costs be reduced by systems such as storage batteries, smart grids and mega solar systems?
How to deal with the physical limitation concerning the relationbetween c and d?
21
IEEJ: June 2011
Reference: Impacts of a 1GW Nuclear UnitImpact of 1GW power station- Nuclear v.s Renewables-
Energy conservation (10% electricity saving)equal: Nuclear: 13.5GW
PV: 95GW
Energy conservation in the Demand side
設備容量（万kW）
用地面積
太陽光 100万kW 12.0 10.5 0.7 5,200 49.5 710 山手線内
風力（陸上） 〃 20.0 17.5 1.1 1,900 10.8 430 山手線の3.5倍
風力（洋上） 〃 30.0 26.3 1.6 2,500 9.5 280
小水力 〃 80.0 70.1 4.3 16,000 22.8 110
地熱 〃 70.0 61.3 3.7 8,500 13.9 120
原子力 〃 85.0 74.5 4.5 3,000 6.5 100
(火力発電）
LNG 〃 1,640 7.5
石炭 〃 2,720 5.8
発電コスト（円/kWh）
原子力100万kWの代替に必要な
山手線内67k㎡
設備利用率%
発電量,億kWh
CO2削減量
（百万トン）
初期コスト（億円） capacity
(GW)Area
PV 1GW 12.0 1,051 0.7 520 49.5 7.1 67 km2
WIND (onshore) 1GW 20.0 1,752 1.1 190 10.8 4.3 235 km2
WIND (offshore) 1GW 30.0 2,628 1.6 250 9.5 2.8
Small Hydro 1GW 80.0 7,008 4.3 1,600 22.8 1.1
Geothermal 1GW 70.0 6,132 3.7 850 13.9 1.2
Nuclear 1GW 85.0 7,446 4.5 300 6.5 1.0
(Thermal Power Generation)
LNG 1GW 164 7.5
Coal 1GW 272 5.8
powergenerationcost（JPY/kWh）
To replace 1GWnuclear power plant,Capacity
factor (%)
powergeneration, GWh
CO2reduction（Mt）
Initial cost(BillionJPY)
22
IEEJ: June 2011
Reference: Outlook for Renewable Energy(Corresponding to the Basic Plan)
2008年 ISEP実績 2020年
設備容量：
214万kW 2,760万kW 5,592万kW 8,100万kW
住宅： 1,660万kW 3,942万kW －非住宅： 1,100万kW 1,650万kW －設備容量：
186万kW 500万kW 1,000万kW 4,000万kW
陸上：186万kW 500万kW 800万kW －
洋上：0万kW 0万kW 200万kW －設備容量：
53万kW 70万kW 165万kW 340万kW地熱発電
2020年 2030年
太陽光発電
風力発電
Outlook of ISEP: from “Unplanned blackout” to “Strategic energy shift”, on May 6, 2011
2008 ISEP2020
Capacity2.14GW 27.6GW 55.9GW 81GW
Residential use 16.6GW 39.4GW －Non residential use 11GW 16.5GW －Capacity1.86GW 5GW 10GW 40GW
On-shore:1.86GW 5GW 8GW －Off-shore:0GW － 2GW －Capacity0.53GW 0.7GW 1.65GW 3.4GW
Wind
Geothermal
2020 2030
PV
23
IEEJ: June 2011
１戸建て総数：約２６５０万戸
耐震基準（昭和５５年以前）耐震基準（昭和５６年以降）
屋根の大きさや方角等を勘案し、太陽光パネルが設置可能
設置場所なし
約１０００万戸（最大限の導入戸数）
約４００万戸（導入不可能）
約１２５０万戸（導入無理）
2. Pace of installation At the pace of 150,000 houses in FY2009. Although the surplus electricity purchase price system is in
place, it is necessary to install PV systems in 550,000 houses per year to reach 12 million houses by 2030. This means that PV systems must be made mandatory for all new houses.
1. Potential for installation According to the “PV Roadmap toward 2030+ (PV2030+)” by
NEDO, there is potential of 54,000MW to 200,000MW for Japan as a whole. According to the Ministry of the Environment (in FY2010), the potential for non-residential facilities is estimated to be 59,000MW to 150,000MW.
The number of detached houses which could install solar panels is a maximum of 10 million (35,000MW – 40,000MW)in view of seismic standards, installation locations, etc.
Considering solar water heater units too, the limit will be even smaller.
Analyzed by Prof. Yuhara of Tokyo University, Member of Mid-Term Target Investigation Committee
Reference: Limit on installing PV power generation systems for detached houses
< Cumulative Installation of PV >
Reference: Installation of Photovoltaic Power Generation by Households (Corresponding to the Basic Plan)
237
3,942
30
1,650
268
5,592
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030
（万kW）
住宅
非住宅
・It is estimated that 12 million households will install photovoltaic power generation systems.・It is estimated that photovoltaic power in non-residential facilities will increase to 55 times the current level.
2.4
39.4
0.3
16.5
2.7
55.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030
（GW）
Residential use
Non Residential use
Total number of detached houses: approx. 26.5 million
Seismic criteria (after 1981) Seismic criteria (until 1981)
approx. 10 million
approx. 12.5 million
approx. 4 million Impossible to install
Maximum number of introduction
Impossible to install
Solar panels installable
considering size and angle of roofs
No space to install
24
IEEJ: June 2011
Reference: Installation Status of PV Power Generation
PV power generation module manufacturersin the world (2009)
Source: IEA-PVPS “Trends in Photovoltaic Applications – Survey report of selected IEA countries between 1992 and 2008”
Source: IEA “Trends in Photovoltaic Applications – Survey report of selected IEA countries between 1992 and 2008”
Note: The “world” means all countries participating in IEA-PVPS.
・ The total cumulative installed capacity in the world is 20,630MW. Japan ranked top in the world until 2004 by cumulative installed capacity. However, following the introduction of the Feed-in Tariff (FIT) system, Germany and Spain are now first and second.
・ Japanese companies produced almost half of all solar power generation panels up to 2005, but the share has gradually declinedand German, Chinese and U.S. manufacturers have increased production.
21,000MWin the world (2009)
0
5
10
15
20
25
1995 2000 2005 2009
Japan
Germany
US
Spain
Italy
World
GW
Japan:2.6GW(2009)
World total:21GkW (2009)
Q-Cells（Germany,Malaysia）
5.0%
Canadian Solar(China)3.1%
Gintech (Taiwan)3.5%
Others35.9%
First Solar(US, Germany,
Malaysia)9.5%
Suntech Power(China)6.6%
Sharp (Japan)5.6%
Tria Solar(China)3.7%
Sanyo (Japan)2.4%Solarfun
(China)2.1% Sun Power
(Philippines, US)3.7%
SolarWorld（ﾄﾞｲﾂ･米国）
3.2%
JA Solar(China)4.8%
Kyocera(Japan)
3.8%
Motech(Taiwan)
3.4%
Yingli GreenEnergy(China)4.9%
World Totalin 2009
10,660 MW
Equivalent to 3GW of nuclear power plant
56GW (2030)
(Germany, US)3.2%
Installation status of PV power generation in the world
25
IEEJ: June 2011
単位：万kW日本風力発電協会
環境省
陸上 16,890 30,000洋上（着床式） 9,383 31,000洋上（浮体式） 51,949 130,000合計 78,222 190,000
1. Potential scale of installation The potential for constructing onshore wind power generation units is 6,400MW according to NEDO’s estimation. Therefore,
it is necessary to select large sites in nature parks or offshore areas in order to install 1,000MW. The construction potential assumed by the National Institute for Environmental Studies is considered to be excessive. For
example, the Institute assumes that wind power units will be installed in woodlands while constructing access roads of up to 10km. Will such a program be permitted in terms of nature conservation?
26
Reference: Installation of Wind Power Generation (Corresponding to the Basic Plan)
2. Siting restrictions, etc. There are issues to be solved such as preservation of natural
landscapes, prevention of noises and bird strikes, etc. It is necessary to negotiate with local residents, so a rapid increase is difficult. Fishing rights is another issue concerning offshore wind power generation units.
It is estimated that planning to start of construction takes 6 to 9 years due to environmental assessments.
There are few suitable places for hosting wind power units due to geographic and wind conditions. Therefore, investigation of installation potential based on the natural conditions in Japan is necessary.
3. Cost of installation Although onshore wind power generation costs are already
globally competitive, system costs are rising as suitable locations decrease due to the rapid increase in worldwide demand and facility installation.
・Installing 10,000MW by 2030
Trends in the system prices in Japan
Source: New and Renewable Energy Subcommittee of the Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy
Estimated wind power generation potential in Japan
Source: White Paper on Renewable Energy Technologies published by NEDO
Maximum capacity is estimated to be 5 million MW.
4. Other challenges Due to volatility, the same as for PV power generation systems,
Japanese electric utilities place an upper limit on the interconnection capacity of the wind power generation system. Measures to upgrade interconnection capacity is a significant challenge for the future.
(MW)
JWPA MOE
Onshore 168,900 300,000Offshore(bottom-mounted） 93,830 310,000Offshore(floating） 519,490 1,300,000Total 782,220 1,900,000
maximumminimum
average
26
IEEJ: June 2011
Sinovel（中国）
9%
Enercon（ドイツ）
9%
Gamesa（スペイン）
7%
Suzlon（インド）
6%
Siemens（ドイツ）
6%
RePower（ドイツ）
3%
その他21%
Goldwind（中国）
7%
Dongfang（中国）
7%
GE Wind（米国）12%
Vestas（デンマーク）
13%
Reference: Installation Status of Wind Power Generation
Installation status of wind power generation in the world
Share of wind power generation units in the international market (2009)
・ The global cumulative installed wind power capacity as of the end of 2009 was 158.500MW, up 32% from a year ago.The U.S., Germany and Spain have been active, but now China and India have been significantly expanding installed capacity.
・ Although Vestas (Denmark), GE Wind (U.S.) and Gamesa (Spain) accounted for 50% of global wind power generationunits in 2008, Chinese manufacturers grew strongly in 2009. Among Japanese manufacturers, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries has expanded its share in both the domestic and U.S. markets.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2000 2005 2010
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000米国
中国
ドイツ
スペイン
インド
日本
世界計（右軸）
万kW 万kW （世界計）（各国）
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2000 2005 2010
0
50
100
150
200
250US
China
Germany
Spain
India
Japan
World
GW GW (World)(Nations)
Sinovel, China9%
Enercon,Germany
9%
Gamesa, Spain7%
Suzlon, India6%
Siemens,Germany
6%
RePower,Germany
3%
Others21%
Goldwind, China7%
Dongfang, China7%
GE Wind, US12%
Vestas, Denmark13%
Source: Global Wind Energy Council“Global Wind Report” 2010 Source: REN21”RENEWABLES 2010 GLOBAL STATUS REPORT”
27
IEEJ: June 2011
Installation has been expanding in the U.S., Indonesia, etc.
Challenges for installation in Japan・Although current installed capacity is 530MW, the corresponding Basic Plan assumes a cumulative capacity of 1,650MW which isperhaps the upper limit of the potential in 2030. However, there has been no new development in the last decade.
・Development risk is high due to the need for confirming the underground heat source by boring tests.・There are siting restrictions due to conflicts of interest with national parks and utilization of hot springs.
Japanese manufacturers have a large share in the world market.
Installation status of geothermal power generation
Installation status of geothermal power generation
Reference: Installation Status and Production Trend of Geothermal Power Generation System
東芝24%
その他
合計11%
ORMAT10%
Ansaldo/Tosi11%
富士電機20%
三菱重工24%
Cumulative value
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
アメリカ
フィリピ
ンイ
ンドネ
シア
メキ
シコ
イタリア
ニュー
ジー
ラン
ドア
イス
ラン
ド日
本
エル
サル
バドル
コス
タリカ
その
他
MW
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
％2005年（MW） 2010年（MW） （％）
全発電容量に占める割合
Major manufacturers of geothermal power generation system
Major manufacturers of geothermal power generation system
(Note) Total power generation capacity is the value of 2008 (EIA).
Potential of geothermal power generationPotential of geothermal power generation
Cost of power generation Up to ¥12/kWh: 1,100MWCost of power generation Up to ¥15/kWh: 1,460MWCost of power generation Up to ¥20/kWh: 1,650MW
2030年目標165万kW
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
USPh
ilippine
sIndo
nesia
Mex
ico
Italy
New
Nea
land
Icelan
dJa
pana
El S
alva
dor
Cos
ta R
ica
Oth
ers
MW
0
5
10
15
20
25
％2005 (MW) 2010 (MW) (%)
Percentage ofGeothermal in the totalpower productioncapacity
Toshiba
24%
Others
11%
ORMAT
10%Ansaldo
/Tosi
11%
Fuji
20%
Mitsubishi
24%
Target in 2030:1.65GW
Source: Prepared based on the “Study on the Low-Carbon Electricity Supply System” 28
IEEJ: June 2011
2. Medium- to Long-Term Agenda 〇 Review of the Basic Energy Plan ⑧
6) Fossil Fuel Energy Policy
Comprehensive perspective: It has problems concerning a, b and c(security, warming and costs).
Among fossil fuels, the problems of natural gas are relatively small, but the problems of global warming gases cannot be avoided.
It is necessary to accelerate the development of CCS, but:- There are little suitable sites in Japan.- Transportation by ship is essential.
Idea of CCU (Carbon Capture and Use) is also important.(Note: Remark by Dr. Eiichi Negishi)
29
IEEJ: June 2011
7) Important points(1) The starting point should be the recognition that Japan has few energy
resources.(2) Comprehensive studies are essential:
a. Security : Independently developed energy or notb. Global warming : Amount of CO2 emissionsc. Costs : Effects on industrial competitivenessd. Available reserves/energy density : Physical limit
(3) There is no perfect energy which can replace nuclear energy. It is necessary to diversify energy sources and to promote technological development based on safety.
(4) It is important to mix safer nuclear energy, cheaper renewable energy and cleaner fossil fuels (especially, natural gas and clean coal) and to promote energyconservation.
(5) It is essential to internationally standardize the safety criteria and to share bestpractices through international cooperation for assuring the safety of nuclear energy and risk management.
2. Medium- to Long-Term Agenda○ Review of the Basic Energy Plan ⑨
30
IEEJ: June 2011
