Energy, Environment and Economy

Course Coordinators:

Pawel Keblinski, MSE

Lois Peters, Lally

Course Website:

http://homepages.rpi.edu/~keblip/ENERGYECONOMY/

Course Objectives

1. To introduce the complexity of the energy issue with its interdependencies between physical limits, market responses, environmental impacts, policy and law.

2. To develop project, research proposal, writing skills techniques for R&D and business related applications.

Course Structure and Grading

1. A series of lecture sessions by academics, industry and government representatives.

2. Energy related team project: 70% of the grade

Project presentation 30% Written document 40%

3. “Concept” exam: 15% of the grade4. Discussion participation: 15% of the grade.

Important Concepts I Wasn’t Taught in Business School

By Nate Hagens

Economic 'laws' were created during and based on a non-repeatable period of human history

The economy is a subset of the environment, not vice versa

Energy is almost everything

Cheap energy, not technology, has been the main driver of wealth and productivity

Energy is special, is non-substitutable in the production function, and has an upward sloping long term cost curve

Energy has costs in energy terms, which can differ significantly than dollar signals

Money/financial instruments are just markers for real capital

Our money is created by commercial banks out of thin air.

Important Concepts I Wasn’t Taught in Business School

Energy Consumption by Source (USA)EIA – Energy Information Agency (US government agency)

Age of wood Age of coal Age of

hydrocarbons

Energy is Everything as far as Macroeconomics is Concerned

Economic growth and energy consumption growth are strongly correlated

Germany vs. China

Germany appears to decouple economy and energy growth

But it is likely that it simply shifts energy intensive GDP to China

What if We Cannot Decouple Energy and GDP Growth?

We are at the peak of the fossil fuel mountainRenewables are our hope to stay on the top or for a gentle decent

Limits of Growth (1972 Book)

We must leave oil before it leaves us" Fatih Birol, Chief Economist EIA, 2008

G. M. Turnner, Global Environmental Change, Vol. 18, pp 397 (2008) “30 years of historical data compare favorably with key features of a business-as-usual scenario called the “standard run” scenario, which results in collapse of the global system midway through the 21st century. The data do not compare well with other scenarios involving comprehensive use of technology or stabilizing behaviour and policies.

Global Energy Consumption

Solar and wind are still insignificant

Global ElectricityIEA 2013 Key Statistics

Coal is #1, oil is out, natural gas is in, other than hydro, renewables still small.

Energy Past, Presence, and FutureEconomist, February 10th 2001

Past is true – future is questionable, H is not an energy source but an energy carrier

The Biggest Push for Renewable Energy - Germany

Summer in Germany is good for solar and bad for conventional electricity generation

In the USA renewable are a lesser factor but utility companies already push to limit the ability to sell back to grid electricity generated by solar panels

In May 2014, during a sunny Sunday 74% of electricity was generated by renewable at the peak consumption

time

Renewable Energy Has Problems

Coal is still a king in Germany (hopefully not for long)

Vladimir Putin effect

The Central Problem - Intermittence

On monthly basis solar and wind complement each other and limit fluctuations to about factor of 2

On daily basis fluctuations are huge – a critical problem if

renewables are ever going to take the dominant position

Need for energy storage

But Fossil Fuels also Have a Problem: Peak OilThe rate of resource extraction increases,

peaks, and declines, assuming finite amount of resource.

M. King Hubbard predicted in 1950 that US production will peak ~ 1970 – he was ridiculed, but he

was right

Alaska

Shale oil

Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI)

€

EROEI =Usable Energy

Energy Expended

Wind and solar are OK

Fossil fuels were great, but are getting worse, as

extraction requires more energy

Biofuels are scam (think Iowa)

When EROEI = 1, the game is over, no matter what is the price. Actually, EROEI has to be > 3 run things (food + shelter, but not much more)

Net Energy

We will leave a lot of fossil fuels in the ground, once is takes too much energy to get them out, and perhaps, much sooner, if we are smart.

What We Need – How We Can Get It

Total World Power (all energy, 2013) ~ 15 Terra Watts (TW)

Solar flux near Earth - 1.37 kW/m2 is captured by πR2 area of the Earth shadow, and averaged over Earth surface area = 4πR2. Furthermore, about 50% of the flux is scattered or adsorbed before reaching Earth, thus effectively the flux per surface area is 174.7 W/m2.

The associated total power is P = 174.7 W/m2 x 4πR2 = 89,300 TW. This theoretical potential translates into ½ hour of sun providing 1 year energy use.

Extractable potential is about 60,000 TW due to theoretical (thermodynamic) limits on the energy conversion.

Technical potential is about 5,000 TW due to current technological limits (e.g., impracticality of over the ocean energy collection).

From solar FAQs by Jeff Tsao, Nate Lewis, and George Crabtree (Sandia NL)

What We are Currently Getting

Total World power (all energy, 2013) ~ 15 Terra Watts (TW)Total electric power ~ 2.5 TW

Solar capacity (2013) 136 Giga Watts (GW) but is characterized by 10-20% capacity factor proving ~ 20 GW, which is about 0.1% of the total and about 1% of the total electric power

Wind capacity (2013) 318 Giga Watts (GW) but is characterized by ~ 20% capacity factor proving ~ 60 GW, which is about 0.3% of the total and about 3% of the total electric power

Hydro provides ~ 0.4 TW, which ~ 16% electricity

The rest is from fossil fuels

Solar: Photosynthesis Efficiency

6H2O + 6CO2 + energy → C6H12O6 + 6O2

100% sunlight → non-bioavailable photons waste is 47%, leaving 53% (in the 400–700 nm range) → 30% of photons are lost due to incomplete absorption, leaving 37% (absorbed photon energy) → 24% is lost due to wavelength-mismatch degradation to 700 nm energy, leaving 28.2% (sunlight energy collected by chlorophyl) → 32% efficient conversion of ATP and NADPH to d-glucose, leaving 9% (collected as sugar) → 35–40% of sugar is recycled/consumed by the leaf in dark and photo-respiration, leaving 5.4% net leaf efficiency. Many plants lose much of the remaining energy on growing roots, leaving ~ 0.25% to 0.5% energy stored in the product (corn kernels, potato starch, etc.). Sugar cane is exceptional in several ways, yielding peak storage efficiencies of ~8%.

Solar: Ethanol

From corn, soybean and switch grasses is takes more fossil fuel energy input than the fuel output. Also it does not limit emissions – in other words is completely insane and alive only due to subsidies. US Gov. (DOE and DOA) claims it is not insane. Currently about ½ of US corn production goes to ethanol, and represents 3% of US liquid fuel consumption (by energy content), so even if it is not insane, it is not a solution.

From sugar cane it makes sense, yields several times more energy and 60% life cycle reduction of emission (US EPA classifies sugar cane ethanol as advanced biofuel). Brazil is the biggest player with ~20% of liquid fuel for transport coming from ethanol. However, it will not work in most places, and even in Brazil it is a partial solution.

Solar: Photovoltaics

Generate electric power by converting sunlight directly into electricity

Photons (light) excite electrons from the valence to the conduction band and can diffuse to the junction with other material leading to voltage. In related, photoelectric effect, excited electrons are ejected to vacuum.

Typical efficiency ~ 15%, can be as high as 40%, which is ~ 100 times better than ethanol.

Photovoltaics: Efficiency Advances

Photovoltaics: Cost

The cost of the module is now smaller than other costs, such as installation, permits, etc.

From energy.goc

Concentrated Solar

Solar to heat, and then heat to electricity by a heat engine.

Typical efficiency ~ 30%. This number is a combination of increasing Carnot cycle efficiency with increasing temperature and increasing radiation losses with increasing temperature.

Cost ~ 0.1-0.2 $/kWh

Can be used with heat storage technologies to generate power overnight

What to do about a personal car?

Batteries – can we get the energy density required

Solar to fuel – hydrogen generation and storage

Biomass to fuel – sugar cane – yes, corn - no

Different Policy Approaches

Germany

No liquid and gas fuel resources

High taxes on liquid fuel

Still use a lot of coal (currently increasing)

Phasing out nuclear power

Approaching 30% electric power by renewable energy

USA

A lot of liquid and gas fuel resources with increasing production including shale gas/oil and ethanol

Low energy taxes

Coal on decline (and exported to Germany)

Solar picking up at selected states (California: Role of policy)

Wind provides 4% of electricity

Climate Change

Big questions

What will be the main drive for renewable energy

• Increasing cost of conventional energy• Peak oil

• Decreasing cost of renewable energy• Materials and efficiency• Installation cost, electric grid

• Policy associated with climate change/ national security

• Increasing taxes on energy or CO2

• Subsidies for renewable

What technical/scientific breakthroughs are needed• Energy storage, large scale for utilities and batteries/hydrogen storage

for transportation

Grid Storage Challenge (web comment)

It must be incredibly cheap. It must be efficient. It must be extremely long-lived. It must be reliable. It must have enormous scalability in both charging and discharge power to

many many megawatts. It must have enormous capacity in the hundreds of MW-hrs to GW-hrs range. It must be safe. One, two, maybe three of these. But the entire list? Exceedingly difficult. Not

something to realistically plan a wind/solar based power grid on, to be sure. But it would change everything, if it happens. I believe someone said in the last century that "What America needed was a

good five cent cigar." That never happened.

Storage: DOE Areas of Interest

Battery (electricity)Compressed air batteryCompressed air energy storageCryogenic energy storageFlywheel energy storageIce storage air conditioningMolten saltPower to gasThermal energy storageVanadium redox batteryLithium ion batterySuperconducting magnetic energy storagePumped-storage hydroelectricity – only significant player at the moment