EnergyEfficiency&IntegratedResourcePlanning

EllenZuckerman&JeffSchlegelSouthwestEnergyEfficiencyProject(SWEEP)

EnergyEfficiencyistheLeastExpensiveEnergyResourceAvailabletoMeetCustomerNeeds

DataSource:TucsonElectricPower(TEP)2016PreliminaryIntegratedResourcePlanandSupplement;TEPDemandSideManagementReports2011-2015.EEcostsexcludecostsandsavingsofdemandresponse.CostsareallporUoliocostsincludingrebatesandincenVves;trainingandtechnicalassistance;consumereducaVon;programimplementaVon;programmarkeVng;planningandadministraVon;measurement,evaluaVon,andresearch;andtheuVlityperformanceincenVve.

$-

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350Acutal2011EECost

Acutal2012EECost

Acutal2013EECost

Acutal2014EECost

Actual2015EECost

Wind(50MW)

SolarFixedPV

(20MW)

SolarSingleAxisTracking

(20MW)

NaturalGasCom

bine

dCycle

NaturalGasReciprocaVn

gEngine

s

SmallM

odularReactor

SolarThermal(6

-hou

rstorage,100M

W)

SmallA

erod

erivaV

veCT

SmallFrameCT

Levelized

Cost$

/MWh

ComparisonofTEPEECoststoOtherResources

ResourceCapacityCostComparisonPorGolio CapacitySavings,

MW*PorGolioCosts* $/kW

TEPIncrementalEE(2015)

24.5 $16.0M $653

APSIncrementalEE(2015)

99.9 $62.8M $629

Resource $/kW

CombusVonTurbine(Aero) $1,250

CombusVonTurbine(Frame) $800

ReciprocaVngEngine $1,200

SmallModularReactor $6,400

NaturalGasCombinedCycle $1,300

Source:TEP2016IRP.

*Doesnotincludedemandresponseorbehavioralefficiencyprograms.CostsareallporUoliocostsincludingrebatesandincenVves;trainingandtechnicalassistance;consumereducaVon;programimplementaVon;programmarkeVng;planningandadministraVon;measurement,evaluaVon,andresearch;andperformanceincenVves.Source:TEP/APS2015AnnualDSMProgressReports.

Energy Efficiency Technologies

Source: SRP 2014 Energy Efficiency Annual Report

Appliances

Building Envelope

Motors

Lighting

HVAC

Shading

SlidefromArizonaStateUniversity

DSM Portfolios, Programs, and Measures in AZ AZ DSM Portfolios Example Programs: TEP Example Measures: Small

Business/Schools Residential Programs: •  Low-income Weatherization •  Residential New Construction •  Shade Tree Program •  Efficient Products •  Existing Homes Retrofit and Audit

Direct Install •  Multi-Family •  Appliance Recycling Non-Residential Programs •  C&I Comprehensive •  Small Business/Schools •  Commercial New Construction •  Bid For Efficiency •  Retro-Commissioning •  Combined Heat and Power (CHP) Behavioral Sector •  Behavioral Comprehensive Support Sector •  Consumer Education and

Outreach •  Energy Codes and Standards Utility Improvement Sector •  Conservation Voltage Reduction •  Generation Improvement and

Facilities Upgrade •  C&I Direct Load Control Program

1.  14/15/16 SEER Packaged and Split ACs 2.  14/15/16 SEER Packaged and Split HPs 3.  Advanced Power Strips, Load Sensors,

Occupancy Sensors, Timer Plug Strip 4.  Anti-sweat Heater Controls 5.  Beverage Controls 6.  Day lighting Controls 7.  De-lamping 8.  Energy Efficiency Exit Signs 9.  Evaporative Fan Controls 10. Hard Wire CFL 11. HIDs to T8/T5 12. High Efficiency Evaporator Fan Motors 13.  Induction Lighting Interior 14.  Integral Screw In CFL 15.  Integrated Case Control and Motor Retro-

fit 16. LED Interior 17. Occupancy Sensors 18. Outdoor CFL 19. Programmable Thermostats 20. Refrigerated Display Automatic Door

Closers 21. Strip Curtains 22. Variable Speed Drives

[Others]

SlidefromArizonaStateUniversity

New DSM Technologies Recently Introduced in AZ

•  Western Cooling Control Optimizer

•  Smart Thermostats

•  Conservation Voltage Reduction

SlidefromArizonaStateUniversity

EnergyEfficiencyResourcesBuildUpCapacityOverTime

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Capa

city(M

W)

CapacityContribuLonsofEnergyEfficiencywithTime

2014EE 2015EE 2016EE 2017EE 2018EE

EEprogramsbuildupcapacityresourcesoverLme,ascustomersmakedecisionsonbuildings,appliances,andequipment,andasEEmeasuresareinstalled.Forexample,whenanEEmeasuresuchasaQcinsulaLonisinstalled,thataQcinsulaLonwilldelivercapacitybenefitsintheyearthatitisinstalledandinsubsequentyears(astheinsulaLonisnotremoved).Inthisway,EEresourcesimplementedinanyoneyearconLnuetodelivercapacitybenefitsformulLpleyears.InaddiLon,EEresourcesimplementedinsubsequentyearsbuildonthecontribuLonofEEresourcesimplementedearlier.

CapacityProvidedbyEEInvestmentsFrom2011-2015isFarGreaterthanRecentSupplySideAddiVonsthatareComparaVvelyMoreExpensive

DataSource:ArizonaPublicService2011-2015DSMReports;TucsonElectricPower2011-2015DSMReports;UNSE2011-2015DSMReports;ArizonaPublicService2014IRP.CapacitycontribuVonsfromdemandresponseandbehavioralenergyefficiencyprogramswereexcluded.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

EECapacityContribuVons OcoVlloExpansion(NetCapacityIncreaseAherSteamUnitReVrements)

Capa

city(M

W)

CapacityContribuLonsofTEP,APS,andUNSEEE(2011-2015)VersusCapacityofOcoLlloExpansion

TEPhasUnmetCapacityNeedsOvertheNext15Years

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032ResourceCap

acity(M

W),Ca

pacityReq

uired

toM

eetP

eakDem

and(M

W)

TEPLoadForecast;ExisLngResources(withoutEE,DR,andDistributedRenewableEnergy)

Coal NaturalGas UVlityScaleRenewables

MarketResources Storage LoadObligaVons*

*LoadobligaVonsarewithouteffectsofEE,DR,andDG;andincludea15%reservemargin.DataSource:TucsonElectricPower(TEP)2016PreliminaryIntegratedResourcePlanandSupplement.

Unmetcapacityneeds

EEHelpsTEPtoMeetitsUnmetCapacityNeeds

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032

ResourceCap

acity(M

W),Ca

pacityReq

uired

toM

eetP

eakDem

and(M

W)

TEPLoadForecast;ExisLngResources(withEE,DR,andDistributedRenewableEnergy)

Coal NaturalGas UVlityScaleRenewables

MarketResources Storage DistributedRenewables

DemandResponse EnergyEfficiency LoadObligaVons*

*LoadobligaVonsarewithouteffectsofEE,DR,andDG;andincludea15%reservemargin.DataSource:TucsonElectricPower(TEP)2016PreliminaryIntegratedResourcePlanandSupplement.

EEMeetsBetween~30-55%ofUnmetCapacityNeedsEachYearOvertheNext15Years

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032

Contribu

Lon

ofR

esou

rcesto

Unm

et

Capa

cityReq

uiremen

ts(M

W)

ContribuLonofFutureResourceAddiLonstoUnmetCapacityNeeds

EnergyEfficiency DemandResponse DistributedRenewables UnmentCapacityNeed

*UnmetcapacityneediswithouteffectsofEE,DR,andDG;andincludea15%reservemargin.DataSource:TucsonElectricPower(TEP)2016PreliminaryIntegratedResourcePlanandSupplement.

FailuretoInvestinEEwillResultinInvestmentinMoreExpensiveSupplySideResources

SWEEPexaminedahypotheLcalscenariowhereEEcapacityisreplacedwithsupplysideresourcesinTEP’s2016IRP.WeassumedthealternaLvesupplysideresourcewouldbea102MWcombusLonturbine(suchastheoneproposedbyAPSatOcoLllo).

ThefigureillustratesthebuildoutofcombusLonturbineunitsnecessarytoprovidecapacityresourcesequivalenttothecapacityprovidedbyEEinTEP’s2016IRP.Asshowninthisfigure,failuretoinvestinEEwillresultinsignificantinvestmentinsupplysideresourcesthatarecomparaLvelymoreexpensive.Indeed,TEPwouldneedtobuildthreecombusLonturbinesovertheplanninghorizonandwouldneedtocommenceconstrucLonimmediately.

DataSource:TucsonElectricPower(TEP)2016PreliminaryIntegratedResourcePlanandSupplement.

TEPSlowsitsInvestmentinEEAhertheEEStandardSunsets

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032

MW

TEPAnnualIncrementalEnergyEfficiencyInvestment

PostEEStandard

DataSource:TucsonElectricPower(TEP)2016PreliminaryIntegratedResourcePlanandSupplement.

ContactInformaVon

!  EllenZuckermanezuckerman@swenergy.org609-610-2989(m)

!  JeffSchlegelschlegelj@aol.com520-907-1088(m)