endogenous growth theory iii. r and d. where are we? there seems to be convergence to own steady...
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Endogenous growth theory
III. R and D
Where are we?
• There seems to be convergence to own steady state, although rate is low
• We expect permanent policy differences to lead to permanent pcGDP differences
• BUT all countries should grow at the same rate• Presumably this is because there is
technological diffusion• However, we still don’t know what this growth
rate is
R and D models
• Technology is produced by an R and D sector
• The sector is profit-motivated• But ideas are non-rival• So how can I make profits out of an
invention?• They can arise from monopoly rents either
naturally (trade secrets, barrier to entry), or artificially (Intellectual property)
The schumpeterian view
• Traditional economics states that monopoly is bad
• But absent monopoly rents there would be no incentives for innovation and entrepreneurship
• Monopoly is bad statically but good dynamically
The hard-core public economics view
• If ideas are a public good, let us subsidize it or provide them publicly
• In principle, we could have zero monopoly power and a subsidy to R and D
• Problem: we can’t define ex-ante what a useful idea is vs. a useless idea
• We need a market test (although for some authors markets only matter for selection)
R and D models of growth
• Horizontal innovation: we introduce new products that are valued by consumers
• There is growth in utility terms if not physical output terms
• Vertical innovation: we introduce new technologies that increase output
• The two can be combined, and quality innovation can also be introduced
What do we need for a model of horizontal innovation?
• A utility function such that– The number of goods can vary– Product variety is appreciated
• An innovation sector that introduces new goods
• Imperfect competition in the goods sector, which creates rents to innovators
The Dixit-Stiglitz paradigm
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Taste for variety
• Because of concavity, consumers gain by having a greater range of goods and consuming proportionally less
• The effect is larger, the more the goods are complements
• If ε<0 the goods are “too complements” and the model does not make sense
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Embodying DS in a growth model(Grossman-Helpman)
• At each date t the R and D sector produces new goods
• The patent owner has monopoly power over the good forever
• The R and D sector has free entry PDV of future monopoly profits = current R and D cost
• The only input in the R and D sector is the labour of researchers
Labour
• Each representative agent is endowed with one unit of labour
• He can work either in the R and D sector or in the production sector
• The wage is the same throughout the economy, equal to wt
Monopolists
• Each monopolist at date t, has a CRTS production function
• Labour is the only input
• Unit productivity
• Takes demand function as given, as well as the aggregate price level (atomistic)
The R and D sector
• One unit of labour produces γ new goods per unit of time
• The PDV of monopoly profits from one additional good is equal to its production cost (free entry)
• The production cost is wt/ γ
Can we get sustained growth?
• The increase in the number of goods is γLR
• For N to grow at a constant rate, so must dN/dt
• But this is impossible if LR is bounded
• So we assume that the productivity of R and D is proportional to the number of goods
The representative consumer problem
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The intra-period allocation of consumption
• Same as in the static Dixit-Stiglitz model
• Income replaced with total expenditure at t, ptCt
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Price normalization
• At any date t, p and w can be multiplied by a small factor and the nominal interest rate adjusted accordingly
• So we need 1 price normalization per period
• We pick pt = 1
• All values are expressed in terms of units of utility
• r = real interest rate in aggregate hedonic consumption units
The monopoly maximization problem
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The R and D problem
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Closing the model
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Solving the model: step 1
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Solving the model, step 2
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Balanced growth path
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Constant
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Growth rate determination
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Intertemporalsubstitution
Innovation
An increase in L
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Innovation
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Welfare analysis
• Profits are a small fraction of the social value of innovation not enough people in R and D
• Monopoly markups depress the wage in the production sector too many people in R and D
• The latter, however, is due to the fact that R and D is the only alternative to production work
• Finally, more innovation reduces the cost of future innovations
Transforming this into a model of productivity growth: the Romer
model
• Differentiated goods are now intermediate inputs into production
• “taste for variety” more varieties increase productivity
• Inventing new intermediate goods TFP growth in aggregate production function
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Scale effects
• A key prediction of R and D models is that there are scale effects: dg/dL > 0
• More peoplemore ideasmore growth
• The number of people engaged in R and D has increased substantially
• Yet no sign of accelerating growth
Where do scale effects come from?
• The externality in learning costs prevents growth in ideas from falling
• And this rate goes up with the number of researchers
• In contrast, if this externality were weaker, L would only have a level effect
• But trend growth in population would offset decreasing returns to research just like TFP growth offsets decreasing returns to capital!
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Policy consequences
• Intellectual property, profitability and subsidies no longer have an effect on long-term growth
• These policies only have a level effect
• LT growth only depends on population growth