Emissions Inventory: India & China Assessments

P.R. Shukla

Indian Emissions in 1995 (Million Ton)

CO2 780

CH4 18.3

N2O 0.3

NOx 3.6

SO2 4.7

Trends of Indian emissions (Million Ton)

Carbon dioxide Methane

15

16

17

18

19

20

1985 1990 19950

200

400

600

800

1000

1985 1990 1995

Em

issi

on

s (M

T)

Growth rate 6.4 % Growth rate 1 %

Trends of Indian emissions (MT)

0

1

2

3

4

5

1985 1990 1995

N2O: Growth rate 5.6 %

SO2: Growth Rate 5.4%

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

1985 1990 1995

NOxN2O and SO2

Growth rate 4.8 %

Comparative GHG Emissions from Other Countries

Methane Emissions (1990)

(MT) Dominant Sources

India 17.2 Livestock

China 28.5 Rice

Brazil 9.9 Livestock

USA 27.0 Solid Waste, Oil

Global 375 Agriculture, Solid Waste, Livestock

CO2 per Capita (1990)

0

5

10

15

20

25

Wor

ld

US

A

Ger

man

y

Jap

an

Ch

ina

Ind

ia

Ton

s

Growth Rates of CO2 Emissions (1990-95)

-2

0

2

4

6P

erce

nta

ge

Wor

ld

Ind

ia

Ch

ina

Bra

zil

Jap

an

US

A

Ger

man

y

N2O Emissions (1990)

Global Emissions ….. 9000 Gg

0

100

200

300

400

500

Japan Germany India China USA

Em

i ss i

o ns

(Gg )

SO2 per Area (1990)

0

4

8

12

16

Ger

man

y

UK

Sp

ain

Jap

an

US

A

Ch

ina

Ind

ia

Can

ada

T /

km

2

Growth Rates of SO2 Emissions

-2

0

2

4

6

8

% G

row

th

Ind

ia

Ch

ina

Jap

an

US

A

Ger

man

y

NOx Emissions (1990)

0

5

10

15

20

25

USA Germany India Japan

Em

issi

ons

(MT

)

Emission Coefficients

Indian Emission Coefficients

CO2, N2O and NOX coefficients are same as IPCC

Fuelwood Sulfur contents assumed to be closer to CORINAIR 90 range, rather than to IPCC default values

Methane Emission Coefficients

Age profile specific livestock emissions (from IPCC)

Methane coefficients for paddy are Indianised

Coal mines are categorized in four levels (as per IPCC) for Methane estimates

For MSW, IPCC co-efficient is used. While MSW estimates are Indianised, composition may differ from IPCC assumptions

Methane Emission Coefficient : Paddy

Water regime Emission factor (g/m2)

Upland --- ---

Low land Rainfed Flood prone 19.0+6.0

Drought prone 6.0+1.5

Irrigated Continuously flooded 25.1+8.4

Intermittently flooded

Singleaeration

6.0+1.5

Multipleaeration

1.36+0.57

Deep water Water depth 50-100 cm 19.0+6.0

Methane Emission Coefficient :Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)

Thirty cities measured values

Composition of Indian MSW differs from IPCC assumptions

(Grams/person) 1990 1995

Daily MSW 300 350

IPCC Value 330

Co-eff 0.045 (kg/kg of MSW)

Differences in SO2 Emission coefficients

(Ton/Ton)

Gas

olin

e

Ker

ose

ne

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

Lig

ht

Die

sel O

il

Die

sel

Fu

elw

oo

d

Co

al*

Su

lfu

ric

acid

India Specific IPCC

* Coal coefficients compared with IPCC low coal

Emissions (MT) 1990 1995Indian coefficients 3.61 4.65IPCC coefficients 4.14 5.04

Regional Emission Distributions

CO2 Emission Distribution

Methane Emissions

Sectoral Emissions

Contribution to GWP (1995)

62%

31%

7%

CO2 CH4 N2O

CO2 equivalent GWP 1254 MT

Growth rate (1990-95) 4.1 %

CO2 Emissions (1995)

45%

35%

13%2%5%

Power sector

Industry Road

Other transport

Other sectors

35%

10%

55%

Steel

CementOther industries

Power sector emits 80% from 30 plants

Industry emissions are relatively dispersed 10% districts emit 70% (including 5 steel plants)

62 % contribution to GWP

CO2 Emissions Growth Rates (1985-95)

Mis

cella

neo

us

0

3

6

9

12

Ele

ctri

cp

ow

er

Tra

nsp

ort

Ind

ust

ry

Ag

ricu

ltu

re

serv

ices

All

Ind

ia

%

Growth rates of Transport CO2

(1985-95)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Oth

ertr

ansp

ort

Roa

d

Ship

ping

Avi

atio

n

Rai

lway

Ove

rall

Gro

wth

rat

es

Methane : Major Contributors

45%

22%

15%

10%2% 4% 2%

LivestockPaddy cultivationBiomass burningMunicipal solid waste

Waste waterOil & gas production & transportationCoal production

31 % contribution to GWP

N2O : Major Contributors 7 % contribution to GWP

60%11%

10%

9%7% 3%

Nitrogen fertilizer use Biomass burning Fertilizer production Livestock

Others Industry (non-energy)

SO2 : Major Contributors

46%

36%

8%6%3%1%

Powerr

IndustryAgriculture RoadOthers Other transport

42%

27%

14%

10%7%

Other industries SteelFertilizer Cement

Industry (non-energy)

Emission sources same as CO2 emissions

NOx : Major Contributors

28%

28%19%

19%

4% 2% 0%

Electric power generation Road transportIndustry (energy use) Biomass burningOther transport OthersIndustry (non-energy)

Methane Emissions : Urban - Rural Comparison

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Pad

dy

Liv

esto

ck

Bio

mas

s

Oil

& N

atu

ral

Gas

Man

ure

Man

agem

ent

MS

W

Ag

ricu

ltu

rere

sid

ue

Was

te W

ater

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Medinipur (Rural)

Delhi (Urban)

Emissions from Large Point Sources

LPS Location Map Sectors LPScovered

Power 94Steel 11Cement 85Fertilizer 31Paper 33Sugar 28Caustic Soda 19Crude refinery 12Petrochemical 14HNO3 manufacturing 5H2SO4 manufacturing 63Aluminum 3Copper smelting 8Lead smelting 5Zinc smelting 3Alcohol production 14Coal mining 32Natural gas production 9N. gas transportation 12Crude oil production 7Municipal solid waste 14Other industries 7Total 509

LPS: CO2 Emissions

Million Tons

CO2Emissiondetails

No. ofLPS LPS (Tg) LPS/Total

Power 94 365 47

Steel 11 48 6

Cement 85 68 9

Fertilizer 31 14 2

Sugar 28 0.7 0.09

Paper 33 2.9 0.37

LPS: SO2 Emissions

Region Details No. ofLPS

LPS/TotalSO2 (%)

MainSources

A Golden corridor 32 6.1 Power,H2SO4

B Delhi 20 2.4 Power,Cement

C Northeast Indiacoal mine

21 7.9 Power,Cement

D East India coalmine

18 5.5 Power,Steel,Cement

E Central Indiacoal mine

16 6.1 Power,Steel

F Southern region 13 3.9 Power,Cement

Thousand Tons

A

B

C

D

E

F

CO2 from Power Plants

50 LPS emit 40% of all India CO2

More concentration near coal mine mouths

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

No. of LPS

Em

issi

on S

har

e (%

)

Share in Power CO2 Share in All India CO2

Million Tons

65%

35%

72%

2%

13%

10%

3%

Power Others CementSteel Fertilizer

94 LPS

85 LPS

11 LPS

31 LPS

288 LPS

CO2 Contribution from LPS

Others (Transport, Household)

LPS

All India Emissions = 778 MT

All India LPS

Emission Performance and Age of Power Plants

R2 (age & SO2 gm/kWh) = 0.57

Other measures (FGD) required for further improvements

0

100

200

300

400

1 6 11 16 21 26 31

Average age of plant as in 1995

SO2

(kt)

0

4

8

12

16

SO2

(gm

/kW

h)

SO2 (kt) SO2 (gm/kWh)

Regression Line

Largest CO2 LPS

0

0.5

1

1.5

2K

orba

Cha

ndra

pur

Ram

agun

dam

Sing

raul

i

Ney

veli

-II

Anp

ara

Vij

aiw

ada

Tut

icor

in

Vin

dhay

acha

l

Wan

akbo

ri

Far

raka

Satp

ura

Kor

adi

Rih

and

All

Ind

ia

CO

2 (k

g/kW

h)

0

5

10

15

20

CO

2 (M

T)

Kg/kWh Million Ton CO2

All these top emitters are power sector LPS

Urbanization and LPS (Metro-districts)

LPS/district emissions (%)City No of LPSCO2 CH4 SO2

Mumbai 15 60 95 70Chennai 10 67 90 77Delhi 8 52 80 77Kolkata 7 52 77 55

0

20

40

60

80

100

Kolkata Chennai Delhi Mumbai

LP

S e

mis

sion

s/D

istr

ict

Em

issi

ons

in (

%)

CO2 CH4 SO2

Emissions Maps for China

China’s SO2 Emissions Inventory Maps