em1 vulnerability adaptation
TRANSCRIPT
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Vulnerability and adaptation:
An Introduction
Manuel Winograd (CIAT, Colombia)
Module I: An Introduction
In collaboration with:
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Presentation Outline
1. Why assess vulnerability and adaptation?
2. How to define vulnerability and adaptation
3. What are the key elements of an assessment?
4. How to move from vulnerability to adaptation
5. How to choose the framework and methods?
6. How to choose the appropriate tools?
7. Practical implications
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To identify the extent and location of short-term and long-termthreats
To respond to the impacts of natural disasters and climatechange
To improve early warning systems and climate change
adaptation measures To understand the underlying vulnerability and the adaptive
capacity
To assist in the identification and prioritization of current andfuture adaptation needs
To guide and support appropriate response measures
1. Why assess vulnerability and adaptation?
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2. How to define vulnerability and adaptation?
There are a number of different ways to define, interpret anduse the terms vulnerability and adaptation. Thesedifferences have social, political, economic and environmental
implications.
Vulnerability
The degree to which a system is susceptible to (or incapableof) dealing with the negative impacts of climate change(including climate variability and extreme events).
Adaptation
Adjustment of a system to respond to new conditions orchanges in its environment.
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Prior to beginning an assessment, one should take into
consideration the following:
Needs and concerns of the clients and users
Temporal and spatial dimensions of the assessment Social and political importance of the assessment
Scales, resources, issues and target sectors
Needs of the actors and partners Resources (human and financial) available
Need to produce information relevant for decision-making
3. What are the key elements of an assessment?
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Technical and scientific community Decision-makers
Problems = Greenhouse effect, Problems = Budget, povertycontamination
Focus = Climate science Focus = Prioritization of issues
Methods = GCM scenarios, etc.. Methods = Development aid strategies.
Perspective = Top-down Perspective = Bottom-up
Vulnerability = Climate impacts Vulnerability = Current and future
Adaptation = Future Adaptation = Current
Goal = Adaptation measures Goal = Policies and actions
Assessment = Global, regional Assessment = National, local, projects
Source: World Bank, 2004 (ESSD Week, 2003).
Example:
Asymmetry in the needs/concerns of scientists/decision-makers
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Data
Data
In reality, a lot of data isproduced but only a smallamount of information is
used to actually makedecisions.
In theory, it is necessary touse a lot of data to producea little information that will
be pertinent to decision-making.
To change this reality, one must transform data into information andinformation into concrete actions.
Example:The theory and reality of using information
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4. How to move from vulnerability to adaptation?In theory
Vulnerability Assessment Adaptation Assessment
Risks
Conditions
FutureVulnerability
Options
Strategies &Priorities
Adaptation
Target Area
Vulnerability
Monitoring
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Assessment, policies, strategic planning, and implementation cycle
Strate
gic
Plan
ning A Ada
ptiv
e
Ca
pacity
P
roject
Form
ulation
A
Imp
leme
ntatio
nVDe
velo
pment
policie
s
V
Awaren
ess
Conditio
ns
andrisks
Assessment
Monitoring
4. How to move from vulnerability to adaptation?In practice
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Crop diversification Insurance Housing design
Early warning Building codes Infrastructure
Anticipatory
Disaster relief Rehabilitation Relocation incentives
Agricultural development Reconstruction Relocation of activities
Changes in ecosystemcomposition and location
Species migration
Reactive
Source: Smith, 2001 www.ipcc.ch/present/COP65/barriysmit.ppt
Naturalsystems
Human
systems
Public
Private
4. How to move from vulnerability to adaptation?
Definition of adaptive measures
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5. How to choose the framework and methods?
Elements to consider:
Identification of problems and issues, awareness raising,improving the level of knowledge and policy development
Strategic planning, objective setting, programme developmentand implementation of projects
Implementation, monitoring and evaluation of projects,programmes, and policies
International, regional and national context, specifically theinterplay of conventions, agreements and processes at these
different levels (e.g. UNFCCC, IPCC, NAPA, UNFCCC NationalCommunications, etc.)
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Global
Local
National
Countries
Livelihoods:Basic needs,
sustainable activities, andgoods and services
Communities Households
Target groups
Climate Change
NAPA(LDCs)
IPCC
APF
InternationalConventions
(CCD, CBD,UNFCCC)
Resources/Sectors:
Agriculture, WaterForests, Health,Infrastructure
Impacts
Biophysical and
socio-economic
Measures&
projects
Politicalstrategies
Scientific assessment
Different levels and needs of an assessment
ProjectsImpac
ts
Impacts
Impacts
Urgent and immediate needs
Scientificperspective
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Source: www.grida.no/climate/vitalafrica
Glob
al
Climate Variability
Climate Change
Example: Use of reference methods according to differentlevels
Regional and global scientific
assessments
Climate variability
Climate change
Example: Use of reference methods according to different
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National and regionalscientific assessments
Bio-physical impacts
Socio-economic impacts
Example: Use of reference methods according to differentlevels
Global
Climate Variability
Climate Change
Bio-physical andsocio-economic
Impacts
Source: www.grida.no/climate/vitalafrica
Hydric stress and lack of freshwaterby 2025
Lack
Stress
Example: Use of reference methods according to different
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Global
National
Climate Variability
Climate Change
Resources/Sectors:Agriculture, Water, Biodiversity,
Health, Infrastructure
Bio-physical andsocio-economic
Impacts
Source: www.grida.no/climate/vitalafrica
Example: Use of reference methods according to differentlevels National and regional policies
and strategies
Sectoral impacts (water andagriculture) of climate variability
Climate impacts on resources(biodiversity)
E l U f f th d di diff t l l
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Global
Loca
l
National
Livelihoods:
Basic needs,sustainable activities,goods and services
Climate Variability
Climate Change
Resources/Sectors:Agriculture, Water, Biodiversity,
Health, Infrastructure
Bio-physical andsocio-economic
Impacts
Source: www.grida.no/climate/vitalafrica
Example: Use of reference methods according different levels
Local and national measures
Impacts of climate variability onlivelihoods
Impacts of climate change onlivelihoods
Food insecurity in Uganda, 2003
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6. How to choose the appropriate tools?
Tools selection must be a function of the desired level of analysis:
Resources Scale Decision levels
Global International Agreements
Ecosystem Regional Agreements
Watershed Governments
Landscape Communities
Farm Families
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Macro-scale/level A set of relationships characterizing the society-environment interactions that
have similar structures and problems
Scenario analysis to assess and explore the potential impacts of variousadaptation strategies
Multi-criteria analysis to compare adaptation options using monetary or non-monetary values
Micro-scale/level Livelihood indicators to identify and analyze the typologies and characteristics
of the most vulnerable groups
Multi-agent simulations to assist the development of adaptation strategies andto assess the differential impacts on stakeholders groups
Oral histories and focus groups to elicit the different perceptions of thestakeholders
Multi-scale/level Vulnerability indicators and mapping to quantify and characterize risks and
vulnerability
Coupled land use models and multi-agent simulations to analyze dependenciesand interrelations between the different scales and levels
Some examples:
6. How to choose the right tools?
Examples of tools
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Examples of tools
Status of the assessment over time
Scales
Regional
National
National
Local
Global
RegionalImportant:
The tools presented in the slides that followare examples and do not represent an
exhaustive list. Some of the tools can be
used at a variety of scales and levels, e.g.participatory GIS, scenario analysis,
vulnerability indicators and multi-agentmodels.
Examples of tools
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Adaptation AssessmentVulnerability Assessment
Source: Downing and Ziervogel, 2004.
Multi-agentmodels andsimulationsCognitive
Cartography
DecisionTree
Delphitechniques
ESE
Expertjudgment
Focus Groups
InstitutionalAnalysis
Multi-criteriaAnalysis
Risk Analysis
Role play
ScenarioAnalysis
BayesianAnalysis
Brainstorming
Checklists
Livelihood
indicators
Oral Histories
Syndromes
Vulnerability Profiles
Vulnerability Indicatorsand cartography
Participatorymodeling and
GIS
Status of the assessment over time
Scales
Regional
National
National
Local
Global
Regional
Examples of tools
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7. Practical implications: Difference between vulnerability to(current) climate variability and vulnerability to (future)
climate change
ClimateVariability
Risks
Flood Risk
Risk ofdrought
CycloneRisk
Currentvulnerability
CommunitiesSectors
Resources
CommunitiesSectors
Resources
CommunitiesSectors
Resources
Vulnerability to climate variability
Adapted from Fussel and Klein, 2002.
www.pik-potsdam.de/~fuessel/download/undp02_final.pdf
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ClimateVariability
Adapted from Fussel and Klein, 2002 .
www.pik-potsdam.de/~fuessel/download/undp02_final.pdf
Risks
Risk ofdrought
Future
VariabilityCommunities
SectorsResources
CommunitiesSectors
Resources
CommunitiesSectors
Resources
Potential
Hazard
Flooding
Drought
Cyclones
Climate Change Vulnerability
ClimateChange
Changes inRisk
Flood Risk
CycloneRisk
Practical implications: The difference between options
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Practical implications: The difference between optionsgeared towards reducing vulnerability to climate variabilityand those aimed at reducing vulnerability to climate change
Adapted from Fussel et Klein, 2002.
www.pik-potsdam.de/~fuessel/download/undp02_final.pdf
Communities
Resources
Pricefluctuation
Frequencyof Drought
Precipitationpattern
Agriculturalpractices
Duration ofDrought
SeasonalTemperature
ClimateVariability
ClimateChange
Otherstressfactors
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Com
munities
Re
sources
PriceFluctuation
Frequencyof Drought
Precipitationpatterns
Agriculturalpractices
Duration ofDrought
SeasonalTemperature
ClimateVariability
ClimateChange
Otherstressfactors
Adaptation
Adapted from Fussel et Klein, 2002.
www.pik-potsdam.de/~fuessel/download/undp02_final.pdf
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Reduction of other stress factors
Adapted from Fussel et Klein, 2002.
www.pik-potsdam.de/~fuessel/download/undp02_final.pdf
Com
munities
Re
sources
Pricefluctuation
Frequencyof Drought
Precipitationpattern
Agriculturalpractices
Duration ofDrought
SeasonalTemperature
ClimateVariability
ClimateChange
Otherstressfactors
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Increasing the adaptive capacity
Resources
Communitie
s
Adapted from Fussel et Klein, 2002.
www.pik-potsdam.de/~fuessel/download/undp02_final.pdf
Pricefluctuation
Frequencyof Drought
Precipitationpattern
Agriculturalpractices
Duration ofDrought
SeasonalTemperature
ClimateVariability
ClimateChange
Otherstressfactors
In summary
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The choice of terms, concepts, methods and tools is not crucial
The important thing is to use those selected in a way so asto produce information that will be relevant for the clients,users, partners and stakeholders
Vulnerability and adaptation assessments are multi-scale andmulti-level processes
Impacts will be distributed in a heterogeneous manner as afunction of the different spatial and temporal scales
The necessary strategies/policies/measures will be definedas a function of the level considered (global, regional,national or local)
Spatial entities (landscapes, watersheds) should be linked tosocial entities (families, villages, individuals) in order to take in
account the realities of the situation
In summary
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One must ensure that realities in the field (institutional
limitations, technical capacities, stakeholders and partnersneeds) are coherent with the selected methods and tools
Information produced must be politically relevant, sociallyacceptable and technically reliable to avoid anecdotic orephemeral elements in the assessments
Scientific knowledge about vulnerability, climate impacts andadaptation options needs to be translated into a language thatdecision-makers understand and converted to timescalesappropriate for the decision-making process
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Political ownership and credibility of the information on
vulnerability and adaptation must be achieved in order to:
Have them viewed as investments and not one-off costs;
Move from implementing reactive measures to implementingproactive measures, namely planning and adapting to thepotential impacts and mitigating the direct and indirect causesof vulnerability.
To overcome the challenge of developing sustainably, onemust: increase adaptive capacity, build resilience, and identifyand capitalize on any advantages resultant from theconsequences of climate change