em - emergency management summit minneapolis 2014 presentation - surprise prevention in emergency...

8/10/2019 EM - Emergency Management Summit Minneapolis 2014 presentation - Surprise Prevention in Emergency Management_Eric Waage

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Preventing Surprisein Emergency Management

Eric WaageHennepin County Emergency Management


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Duluth population: 89,200

In-force flood insurance policies on 19-20 June 2012: 111 (0.001%)


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Is PreventingOperational Surprise

anEmergency

ManagementResponsibility?

QUESTION


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SURPRISE PREVENTION?

EM Phases (4 or 5) Prevention Preparedness Response Recovery Mitigation

EM Principles (8) Comprehensive Progressive Risk-Driven Integrated Collaborative Coordinated Flexible Professional


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Core Capabilities (31) Planning Public Info & Warning Operational Coordination Forensics and Attribution Intelligence & Info Sharing Interdiction & Disruption Screening, Search, Detect Access Control Cybersecurity

Physical Protection

Risk Management Supply Chain Integrity Community Resilience Vulnerability Reduction Resilience Assessment Threats/Hazards ID Critical Transportation Environmental Response Fatality Management

Infrastructure Systems


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Core Capabilities Mass Care Mass Search and Rescue On-Scene Security Operational Communications Public/Private Resources Public Health/Medical Situational Assessment Economic Recovery Health & Social Services

Housing

(continued) Natural/Cultural Resources


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Is PreventingOperational Surprise

anEmergency

ManagementResponsibility?

PredictiveAnticipatoryFuture-orientedProactive

YES!


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NFPA 1600 states that emergency managementprograms shall identify hazards, monitor those

hazards, [ assess ] the likelihood of their occurrence,and the vulnerability of people, property, theenvironment, and the entity [program] itself tothose hazards

IDENTIFY, MONITOR & ASSESS

Oriented to the present environment

(no explicit mention of readiness for future states)


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SITUATIONAL AWARENESSLevel 1 Scan, Detect, Identify, Seeing

Level 2 Meaning, Relevance, Understanding

Level 3 Anticipate, Foresee, Predicting


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How much do you know about the situation? More H o w

w e

l l c a n

y o u p r e

d i c t t h e r e s u

l t s o

f y o u r a c t i o n s ?

COMPLEXITY VOLATILITY

AMBIGUITY UNCERTAINTY

The challenge is unexpected or unstable,but not unknown, unprecedented ordifficult to understand.

Improve: redundancy and capacity

Situation has many inter-connected parts and variables.Volume and tempo of information can overwhelm.Improve: acquirespecialized talent and skills

Casual relationships of situationare unknown or unclear.Unprecedented event.

Improve: Experimentation,agility and innovation

Events basic cause and effects are known.Lack of complete information.

Improve: information flow, interpretationand assessment systems

Based on Nathan Bennet and G. James Lemoine, Harvard Business Review, JAN 2014

VUCA: Volitile-Uncertain-Complex-Ambiguous


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History is a vast

early warning s ystem. Norman Cousins

Ruins of the Saint Paul High Bridgefollowing a probable derecho on20 August 1904 (winds 110 mph)

Regional Disaster PlanningReference Collection- Historical references- Original research

- After action reviews- Plans and policies
http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=dw6ijD6MeC6SIM&tbnid=uODnkMNR_99i_M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://serviceminder.me/&ei=k8wNVJaiJI6uyASAz4KQAw&psig=AFQjCNEy5x8aQAMHBrwyzx2UQGqIPaPRCw&ust=1410276877151154http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=dw6ijD6MeC6SIM&tbnid=uODnkMNR_99i_M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://serviceminder.me/&ei=k8wNVJaiJI6uyASAz4KQAw&psig=AFQjCNEy5x8aQAMHBrwyzx2UQGqIPaPRCw&ust=1410276877151154


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ANE

MSP

FCM

MIC

MnDOT087

MnDOT094

MnDOT494

MnDOT085

MnDOT086

MnDOTFrost (P)

NWS-TCFrost (S)

Inadequate

SensorZone

GAPS

1. Western Hennepin County w/o official sensors2. Approaches to Hennepin not well covered3. Narrow sensor orientation airports/interstates4. Significant gap in frost depth sensor coverage5. Technology gap in special heat sensor coverage
http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=dw6ijD6MeC6SIM&tbnid=uODnkMNR_99i_M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://serviceminder.me/&ei=k8wNVJaiJI6uyASAz4KQAw&psig=AFQjCNEy5x8aQAMHBrwyzx2UQGqIPaPRCw&ust=1410276877151154http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=dw6ijD6MeC6SIM&tbnid=uODnkMNR_99i_M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://serviceminder.me/&ei=k8wNVJaiJI6uyASAz4KQAw&psig=AFQjCNEy5x8aQAMHBrwyzx2UQGqIPaPRCw&ust=1410276877151154


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HCEM Watch Leader

Situation Monitoring Station(SMS )

HC Emergency Operations Center(HC EOC)


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Preventing Surprisein Emergency Management

Eric WaageHennepin County Emergency Management

em - emergency management summit minneapolis 2014 presentation - surprise prevention in emergency...

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