electricity in thailand: current arrangements, impacts, alternatives 27 june, 2007 eri chom greacen...
TRANSCRIPT
Electricity in Thailand:current arrangements, impacts,
alternatives
27 June, 2007ERI
Chom GreacenChris Greacen
www.palangthai.org
Will our electricity future look like
this?
…or this?
… or this?
Natural gas
• Used to make 71% of Thailand’s electricity (among highest in world)
• Cleaner than other fossil fuels (especially SOx) but still big CO2 emissions
• Limited domestic supply.• Human rights issues in
pipeline from Burma (Yadana)
LNG terminal
Natural gas• Severe price volatility – linked to crude oil price.• Now around $0.05 to $0.07 / kWh
Coal
• Used to make 14% of Thailand’s electricity
• History of respiratory illnesses from coal smoke – Mae Mot, Lampang
• Acid rain• Worst fuel for global warming• Limited domestic supply• Cheaper (now) than natural gas
($0.04 to $0.06/kWh)• Strong environmental opposition
Big hydro
• Used to make 6% of Thailand’s electricity
• Consensus: no more big dams will be built in Thailand– Limited sites left in Thailand– Strong environmental opposition
• Environmental issues– Inundation– Fish killed– Global warming– Changes in temperature / sediment
loading / flow regime
• Can be cheap– If reasonably close to load centers
Thailand seen from altitude of 450 kilometers
Burma
Sri Nakharin dam reservoir
Khao Laem dam reservoir
Thailand seen from 54 kilometers
Sri Nakharin dam reservoir
Khao Laem dam resettlement• "We had to spend all of our compensation for
living, and it wasn't enough, actually. The condition of the land here and my previous land is very different...I miss the fertile resources. Our ancestors did rice farming for ages. But now I cannot grow rice and have to buy it, which is also very expensive ... If I could ask the officials for one thing, I would like to ask, 'Please can I return to where I was?'" – Panya Kwanprasertwaree, a Karen elder who was
forced to move because of the dam
Nuclear
• In 2007 PDP starting year 2020
• Cost uncertain– $0.02 to $0.12/kWh
• Environment & security issues– Generates materials that can
be used to make weapons– Thailand has spotty nuclear
safety record already– Waste dangerous for 250,000
years.
Thai Electricity demand is projected to grow
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
450001992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
MW
Peak D
em
and
Jan 04 (MEG)
ACTUAL
What should be done to make sure that there is enough electricity?
• Natural gas interests say:– “Use more gas!” – “It’s clean(er).”
• Coal interests say:– “Use more coal” for fuel diversity– “Clean” coal– “It’s cheaper”
• Hydropower interests say:– “New dams in Lao and Burma!”– Asian Development Bank GMS grid– “Big hydro for poverty reduction!”– “It’s cheap”
• Nuclear advocates say:– It’s cheap! (contested)– No green house gases!
Industry response…
What should be done to make sure that there is enough electricity?
ADB/World Bank response…
ADB’s Indicative Master Plan on Power Interconnect-ion in the GMS
Civil society response…
1. Fix governance problems• Transparency, accountability, public participation• Remove conflict of interest• Set up empowered, competent regulatory authority
2. More realistic demand projections3. Consider a full range of alternatives in power
development plan including:• Energy savings• Renewable energy• Combined Heat and Power (CHP)
Fix governance problems: Transparency, accountability, public
participation
Fix governance problems: Remove conflict of interest
• Example: transmission shouldn’t be controlled by the same business that owns generation.
Fix governance problems: regulatory authority
• Independent– Able to think for itself
• Competent in working for public interest– Public wants reliable, affordable energy without
environmental impacts
• Empowered– Has authority to enforce the rules
13 out of 14 official base case forecasts predicted demand that failed to materialize
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
MW
pea
k d
eman
d
Jun-93
Dec-94
Oct-95
Apr-96 (High)
Oct 96 (Base)
Jun 97 (Low)
Sep 97 (Very Low)
Sep 98 (RER)
Sep 98 (MER)
Sep 98 (LER)
Feb-01
NGO-01
Aug-06
Jan 04 (MEG)
Apr 06 Base
Jan-07
NGO-04
ACTUAL
Demand growth has been close to linear over the past 20 years…
y = 844.21x - 2E+06
R2 = 0.989
0
10000
20000
30000
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Pea
k d
eman
d (
MW
)
Historic peak demand Linear (Historic peak demand)
… but “official forecasts” assume exponential growth
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
Pea
k d
eman
d (
MW
)
2007 Forecast Historic peak demand trend
24 power plants
Power Development Plan(Planned installed capacity = peak demand + 15% reserve)
Fuel mix in power generationGWh
Import
NukeRE
Gas
Coal
LigniteHydro
Options that need to be included
Options that need to be included
• Saving energy
Options that need to be included
• Saving energy
• Renewable energy
Options that need to be included
• Saving energy
• Renewable energy
• Combined heat and power (CHP)
Customer Efficiency
Central Generation
Centralized utilityCentralized utility(EGAT)(EGAT)
Decentralized utilityDecentralized utility(A better way)(A better way)
RemoteLoads
Wind
PV
Genset
Fuel Cell
Battery
Customers
Central Generation
30
Saving electricity is cheaper than generating it…
Source: The World Bank (1993)
2.12.6
4.04.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.5
8.2
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
DSM Hydro fromLaos
Gascombined
cycle
Lignite withFGD
Low-sulphurcoal w/o
FGD
Low-sulphur fuel
oil w/oFGD
LNG Low-sulphur
coal withFGD
Nuclear
Type of Power Plant
Co
st
of
En
erg
y (
US
ce
nts
/kW
H)
Demand Side Management (saving electricity)
Saving Energy : big potential in Thailand
• 2000 to 3000 MW: “Achievable and cost effective Demand Side Management (DSM)” in 1991 (Utility study)
Saving energySaving energy in the house: in the house: Using overhangs, trees to keep Using overhangs, trees to keep
house coolhouse cool
ที่��มา : Australian Greenhouse Office (2003)
South
Saving Energy in a typical pumping system
Source: Presentation by Ministry of Energy at Energy Strategy Workshop chaired by Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. 28 August 2003
Rice husk fired power plant
• 9.8 MW• Roi Et province• Subsidy 0.3 baht/kWh
• Uses waste water from cassava to make methane
• Produces gas for all factory heat (30 MW thermal) + 3 MW of electricity
• 3 x 1 MW gas generators• Subsidy 0.3 baht/kWh
Korat Waste to Energy - biogas
Biogas from Pig Farms
Reduces air and water pollution
Produces fertilizer
Produces electricity
8 x 70 kW generator
Ratchaburi
Subsidy: 0.3 baht/kwh
Community micro-hydro• Mae Kam Pong village,
Chiang Mai
• 1x40 kW; 2x20 kW
• Community cooperative
• Subsidy 0.4 to 0.8 baht/kWh
Wind energy
• Power Potential “1,600 MW”
• Wind speeds still not well characterized
• Projects in planning phase 5 to 30 MW in southern gulf provinces
• Subsidy 2.5 baht/kWh
•Subsidy 8 baht/kWh•68 projects on-line generating >1 MW•Several big projects planned > 7 MW additional
Grid-Connected Solar Electricity
Tesco Lotus 460 kW grid-connected PV Rama I,
Bangkok8 kW grid-connected
Honda Automobile
Co., Bangkok
Off-grid handouts
• 230,000 solar home systems• >900 solar battery charging stations• >60 community micro-hydropower
systems
DEEP CY CLEEBB 125
3K THAI STORAGE BATTERY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
3KDEEP CY CLE
EBB 1253K THAI STORAGE BATTERY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
3KDEEP CY CLE
EBB 1253K THAI STORAGE BATTERY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
3KDEEP CY CLE
EBB 1253K THAI STORAGE BATTERY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
3KDEEP CY CLE
EBB 1253K THAI STORAGE BATTERY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
3K
SH-1210M
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Renewable energy accounts for very little of Thailands’ total electricity production
Source: (EPPO) 2007
Combined Heat and Power
(CHP)… also called
“cogeneration”
CHP potential in Thailand
–8610 MW cogen installed as of 2001
–At least 3,000 MW of additional cogen had applied and have not been accepted.
Summary of alternatives
• Energy saving 2000 to 3000 MW
• Renewables > 3000 MW
• Cogeneration > 3000 MW
• Total peak load in Thailand (2007): around 22,600 MW
Civil society response…
1. Fix governance problems• Transparency, accountability, public participation• Remove conflict of interest• Set up empowered, competent regulatory authority
2. More realistic demand projections3. Consider a full range of alternatives in power
development plan including:• Energy savings• Renewable energy• Combined Heat and Power
Let’s work together…
• Are you interested in looking at clean energy options in your country?
• Are you motivated, self-reliant, willing to ask tough questions?
• Mekong Energy and Climate Network (MECN) forming 2008…
Your comments and questions are welcome!
Palang Thai
Tel. 02-672-0364
www.palangthai.org
Cost of renewable energy is sometimes higher than conventional
1.36 1.45 2.02 1.57 1.76
9.07
3.98
0.50
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
ก!าซ์ ถ่#านหิ�น น%&าม�นเต์า ชี�วมวล พล�งน%&า(เล(ก) แสงอาที่�ต์ย์� พล�งลม DSM
Pro
duct
ion
cost
(ba
ht/k
Wh)
gas coal Smallhydro
biomass solar wind Energy efficiency