El Niñoin Peru

Photos: SENAMHI / EL TIEMPO NEWSPAPER (PIURA) - UNIVERSITY OF PIURA (UDEP, in Spanish)

Reducing the population vulnerabilityand their livelihoods at the risk of disasters.

Developing the knowledge of risk.

National Plan for Disaster Risk Management - PLANAGERD 2014 - 2021 (National Objective and Strategic Objective 1)

PREVAEDBudget Program 068: Vulnerability Reduction and Emergencies

Attention Service for Disasters.

Author : National Meteorology and Hydrology Service of Peru – SENAMHI Headquarters of Meteorology - Direction of Climatology

Technical Staff : Amelia Díaz, Esequiel Villegas, Luis Alfaro, Grinia Avalos, Juan Bazo, Yuri Escajadillo, Christian Barreto, Cristian Febre

Year: 2014

Ministry of the Environment – MINAMAv. Javier Prado Oeste 1440, San Isidro, Lima. Telephone (51-1) 611600http://www.minam.gob.pe

National Meteorology and Hydrology Service of Peru SENAMHIJr. Cahuide 785 Jesús MaríaTelephones:Main station: (51-1) 6141414Forecasts: (51-1) 6141407www.senamhi.gob.pe

Edition and Design : Fernando Zuzunaga Núñez Photography : Senamhi / El Tiempo Newspaper (Piura) - University of Piura (UDEP)

Contents of this document may be reproduced quoting SENAMHI’s source.

Once the Legal Deposit at the National Library Was Made Out Of Peru N° 2014-08286

Form at the printing office: Impresiones y Servicios Generales TAWA Av. Las Retamas Mz. V Lt. 1 - Villa Rica - Chaclacayo - Lima - Peru Tel.: (01) 3590171 / 981891932 / 986506301 E-mail: igtawalopez@gmail.com

SENAMHI - 2014

What is El Niño?

Evolution of El Niño definition

Types of El Niño: Canonical and Modoki

Kelvin Waves and their relationship with El Niño

An operational definition for the coastal region of Peru

Characteristics of El Niño in Peru

Impacts of El Niño, from strong to extraordinary

Background of El Niño in Peru

What should we do?

Institutional strategy to monitor and to forecast El Niño

Government strategy for disaster risk management in Peru

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EL NIÑO in Peru

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El Niño in Peru 6

El Niño is one of the most significant manifestations of the interannual variability of the climate of our planet. Today, as in the past, it is crucial for our country to understand and of course to be able to forecast El Niño.

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Records exist from the XIXth century, the scientific community tried to explain manifestations of what we meet today as El Niño. For example, in November 1867, the wise Antonio Raimondi told on the presence of a heavy rain shower in Magdalena de Cao, a community northwest of Trujillo: “…that it was so copious that led to water flows along the streets, rare on the coast of Peru ”, soon to conclude than be that as it may, the truth is that this was followed by a change in the direction of the ocean current, a rise in sea temperature, a mortality in fish whose bodies were thrown in bulk to the beach.

El Niño is one of the most significant manifestations of the interannual variability of the climate of our planet. Today as in the past, it is crucial for our country to understand and of course to be able to forecast this anomaly. Although we currently get more information with regard to this matter, there is still a lot to research and to develop in order to have a more comprehensive approach about El Niño.

Therefore, the National Meteorology and Hydrology Service of Peru - SENAMHI, an entity within the Ministry of the Environment, is making an important effort to achieve more knowledge on the behavior of weather and climate, in order to enhance the anticipation and resolution of their warnings and forecasts. This effort seeks to provide appropriate advice to several productive sectors and government organizations, strengthening the response capacity of the country to the risks associated with climate variability, as well as the capacities to achieve a better use of our resources to sustainable development.

Besides reporting on the current understanding of El Niño, this document aims to raise conscience of the importance of strengthening institution such as SENAMHI, which fulfills a key role in the system of risk management and planning development of Peru.

Dear reader:

Manuel Pulgar-Vidal OtáloraMinister of the Environment

El Niño in Peru8

What is El Niño?

A t the end of the XIX century, the fishers of the north of Peru appreciated that every year, towards the end of December, close to Christmas, there was an increase in the temperature of the seawater, which was observable

along the northern coast. They attributed this warming to the arrival of an ocean current of warm waters that they called “El Niño” current.

The presence of these warm waters along the Peruvian coasts is a recurrence that lasts several months. Now we know that this marine coastal warming stresses every number of years, being a manifestation of the changes that occur in the ocean’s surface and sub-surface layers. This is linked to complex interactions with the atmosphere produced in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, thousands of kilometers away from the Peruvian coast.

SENAMHI monitors climate conditions permanently.

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Evolution of El Niño definition

The definition of “El Niño” has changed through the years. In some South American countries such as

Peru and Ecuador, “El Niño” is referred to the increase of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) on the coastline of the west coast with the occurrence of intense rains. Before, it was considered a local anomaly. At present, it is recognized as the main modulator of the interannual climate variability all over the world.

The term “El Niño” comprises changes observed in the SST in the central equatorial Pacific, as well as changes of the atmospheric pressure in the Pacific Ocean, from

Australia (Darwin) to Tahiti (central-eastern tropical Pacific).

In recent years, in order to focus in the process of evolution of the ocean’s surface temperatures and in the winds, scientists have zoned the equator of the Pacific Ocean into four quadrants (Figure 1). Most of them concentrate their attention to the quadrants El Niño 3 and Niño 3.4 to try to understand its evolution.

Figure 1. The four regions of the Pacific Ocean where scientists are focusing their attention to study the winds, the sea surface temperature and the precipitations. Source: NOAA1

1. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – NOAA. (http://www.noaa.gov)

EcuadorNiño 1Niño 2 0°

Pacific Ocean

Niño 3.4Niño 4 Niño 3

Atlantic Ocean

Australia

America

10°

160° E 150° W 90° W

Atlantic Ocean

El Niño in Peru10

Chart 1. Thresholds to identify the magnitude of El Niño/La Niña, according to the NOAA in the tropical Pacific Ocean El Niño 3.4

2. An anomaly opposite to El Niño , characterized by a cooling of the sea surface temperature.3. Centered moving mean of three (3) consecutive months.4. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI, in English) is a value obtained from the difference of the surface atmospheric pressure values between Tahiti’s island and Darwin (Australia). Tahiti’s island is used as characteristic point of the behavior of the atmospheric pressure in the eastern-central tropical Pacific Ocean part; Meanwhile, Darwin is used as the representative point of the atmospheric pressure of the western part of the same ocean. In other words, the SOI is a comparative measure of how the atmospheric pressure changes in two big regions, western and eastern-central tropical Pacific Ocean. (http://www.imn.ac.cr/educacion/enos/oscil_sur1.html)

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States of America - NOAA, uses the

Oceanic Niño Index (ONI, in English) to identify El Niño and La Niña2. This index is calculated by averaging 3 consecutive months3 the monthly series of the anomalies of the sea surface temperature measured in the tropical Pacific at the Region El Niño 3.4 (5°N – 5°S, 120° - 170°W).

They are considered warm and cold episodes when the ONI index surpasses the threshold of +/- 0,5 ºC . When that threshold is covered during a minimum of 5

continuous months, they are defined as El Niño (+) or La Niña (-) episodes (Chart 1).

El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural event of climate variability in which the ocean and atmosphere in the tropical Pacific Ocean region are interrelated. This term became known as of the eighties, when the scientific community proved that there was an interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere that explained it. The ENSO’S warm phase corresponds to El Niño (oceanic warming and IOS4 negative), in the meantime the ENSO’S cold phase, corresponds to La Niña (oceanic cooling and IOS positive) (Figure 2).

Indice Oceánico El Niño (ONI)Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)

Very warm

Moderate warm

Weak warm

Neutral

Weak Cold

Moderate Cold

Very Cold

Greater than or equal to +1,4

Greater than +0,9 and less than +1,4

Greater than +0,5 and less than +1,0

Greater than -0,5 and less than +0,5

Less than -0,5 and less than -0,9

Less than -1,0 and less than -1,5

Less or equal than -1,5

CategoríaCategory

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Figure 2. Southern oscillation Index, blue color (oceanic warming) and red color (oceanic cooling).

During the warm phase of ENSO (El Niño), the tropical atmosphere gets warm and moistens altering zone storms, moving toward the eastern Pacific (South American coast).

Even though Peruvians are more interested in what

happens near our coasts (quadrant Niño 1+2), the impact of the ocean-atmospheric anomalies along the equator of the Pacific Ocean associated to ENSO is not only limited to the tropics, but has implications for other regions of the world through teleconnections5 (Figure 3).

5. Atmospheric interactions between separate regions among themselves.

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Figure 3. Once El Niño has developed, it is known to influence the patterns of temperature and precipitation in many regions of the world. These changes, although they vary slightly of one El Niño event to another one, they are quite consistent at the shaded regions (temperature anomalies and precipitation for teleconnections) between December-February (above) and June-August (below). Source: Adapted from NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

El Niño in Peru

Ecuador 0°

Atlantic OceanAmerica

dry

wet

dry

dry

dryand cold

Australia

wetwarm and

dry

warm

wetwarm

Ecuador 0°

Atlantic Ocean

Australia

Americawarm

dryand

warm

dry

dry

wet

warm

wet and cold

dry

warm

warm

wet

wetand

warm

TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AND PRECIPITATION FOR TELECONNECTIONS BETWEEN JUNE AND AUGUST

TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AND PRECIPITATION FOR TELECONNECTIONS BETWEEN DECEMBER AND FEBRUARY

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The Canonical El Niño and The Modoki El NiñoDo we know everything about El Niño?

Most risk management studies analyze the impacts of the “extraordinary El Niño”6 events of 1982/83 and 1997/98, due to the chain of devastating impacts in Peru and other regions of the world (Figure 4a and 4b).

ANOMALY OF THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATUREExtraordinary El niño: Year 1982. June, July and August.

Figure 4a: Anomaly patterns of the sea surface temperature (°C) during the 1982 “Extraordinary El Niño”, winter period (June, July and August). Source: NOAA_OI_SST_V2 data products from PSD - SENAMHI.

ANOMALY OF THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATUREExtraordinary Niño: Year 1997. June, July and August

Figure 4b: Anomaly patterns of the sea surface temperature (°C) during the 1997 “Extraordinary El Niño”, winter period (June, July and August). Source: NOAA_OI_SST_V2 data products from PSD - SENAMHI.

6. Term to determine the presence of an extraordinary El Niño in the central-eastern Pacific, whose evolution is not necessarily credited to the one belonging to a “Canonical Niño”.

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ANOMALY OF THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURECanonical Niños: Years 1965/1969/1972. June, July and August.

Figure 4c: Anomaly patterns of sea surface temperature (°C) during the 1965, 1969 and 1972 “Canonical El Niño”, winter period (June, July and August). Source: COBE-SST2/NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD – SENAMHI..

Figure 4d. Anomaly pattern of sea surface temperature (°C) during the 1994, 2002 and 2004 “Modoki El Niño”, winter period (June, July and August). Source: NOAA_OI_SST_V2 data products from PSD - SENAMHI.

ANOMALY OF THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATUREModoki Niños: Years 1994/2002/2004. June, July and August.

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Even before the 1982/83 El Niño, several events known as the “Canonical Niño” (Rasmussen and Carpenter, 1982), in terms of its temporary evolution, that was documented, when the heating of the sea starts up in the Peruvian coast in fall and extends towards the west, with a maximum heating in the eastern-central tropical Pacific during the following summer (Figure 4c). The 1982/83 El Niño broke off these schemes.

Recent investigations (Ashok et al., 2007; Ashok and Yamagata, 2009; Takahashi et al., 2011) answer for another pattern of surface temperature anomalies in the central Pacific that do not necessarily link with the eastern Pacific, becoming the second dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific, and it is known as “Modoki Niño”7, whose characteristics include its low effect on water temperatures, air and rains on the Peruvian coast, even though they may keep on generating remote impacts in other parts of Peru and the world. (Figure 4d).

But El Niño is not the only impact, there is another anomaly known as the “Pacific Decadal Oscillation” (PDO8, in English) attached to it, which is a natural fluctuation that switches between phases of heating and cooling every 20 or 30 years, detectable by measuring the surface temperature of the north Pacific (north of parallel 20). Studies indicate that this natural oscillation would determine the frequency and intensity of El Niño9.

Today there is too much uncertainty at the worldwide centers of climate research as to the evolution of the intensity and frequency of El Niño in the future, due to the recurrence of patterns associated to new modes of interannual variability, and to the context of climate change (Figure 5).

Figure 5. Representation of the physical processes associated to El Niño. a) Normal conditions; b) Conditions during classic or canonical El Niño; c) Conditions during Modoki El Niño. Source: Ashok and Yamagata, 2009.

a) Normal conditions

Thermocline

Air movement

b) Classic or canonical

Thermocline

c) Modoki

Thermocline

Air movement

Air movement

Air movement

6. Term to determine the presence of El Niño in the central-eastern Pacific of extraordinary magnitude, whose evolution is not necessarily to be credited to the one belonging to a “Canonical Niño”. 7. Japanese term that means “match but different”, used to determine the presence of El Niño in The Central Pacific. 8. Fluctuation of long period in the Pacific Ocean (Trenberth 1990; Mantua and Hare, 2002)9. The extraordinary El Niño events of 1982/83 and 1997/98, were developed during the PDO’s positive phase. It was predicted in 1999 that we were getting into a PDO’s cold phase; the worldwide climate at present is influenced by this phase.

The Multisectorial Committee for the National Study of El Niño – ENFEN10, systematically monitors and

estimates the arrival of warm and cold Kelvin oceanic waves to our coasts. This with the aim of foreseeing the variations of the sea surface temperature, its impact on the air temperatures and, if appropriate, their relationship to precipitations, when it coincides with the rainy season. Its impact is in many instances short-lived in time and in other cases they may be the start of an El Niño episode.

When trade winds (blowing from east to west throughout Ecuador) weaken at several zones of the equatorial Pacific, warm equatorial oceanic Kelvin waves (waves severely modified by the rotation of the earth) can be generated that spread out toward the South American coasts. This produces the sinking of the thermocline11 and an increase in both temperature anomalies in the sea surface and below it. (Figure 6).

The Kelvin waves are formed close to Indonesia (Western Pacific) in an area known as ”warm pool”, the largest area of warm waters of our planet. These waves travel East towards South America, deepening the thermocline. Its propagation speed is on average from 2 to 3 m/s, which is why its arrival from the central equatorial Pacific to our coasts takes about two months.

The TAO network (set of buoys throughout the equatorial Pacific) is one of the most reliable monitoring systems to monitor the temperature of the water surface and sub-surface sea water, winds, atmospheric temperature and relative moisture in the monitoring regions of El Niño. The satellite observation also plays an important role since they can measure the height of the ocean surface, surface winds, among others. These technologies, added up to the numerical models of propagation of these waves, allow traceability and estimation of their arrival on South America coasts.

10. The Multisectorial Committee for the National Study of El Niño – ENFEN, in Spanish, is the scientific and technical agency multisectorial official character, commissioned by the Peruvian State, has the role of monitoring, keeping watch, analyzing and alerting on anomalies of ocean and atmosphere in order to design appropriate prevention measures to reduce the impacts of El Niño. It is formed by the Marine Research Institute of Peru (IMARPE, in Spanish), the National Meteorology and Hydrology Service of Peru (SENAMHI), the Direction of Hydrography and Navigation (DHN, in Spanish), The National Institute of Civil Defense (INDECI, in Spanish), The Water National Authority (ANA, in Spanish) and the Geophysical Institute of Peru (IGP, in Spanish).11. Thermocline: Water layer that divides the masses deep cold water of upper mass warm waters. This layer gets deep as a consequence of the propagation of the Kelvin wave to South America.

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Kelvin Waves and their relationship with El Niño

“The Kelvin Waves are formed close to Indonesia (Western Pacific) in an area known as ”warm pool”, the largest area

of warm waters of our planet”.

Figure 6: Sea sub-surface temperature anomalies12. Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationSource: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States of America – NOAA.

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February 19 – 2014

March 16 – 2014

April 18 – 2014

12. Anomaly: The difference between the value observed in a determined time and the historic average (climatology).

18 El Fenómeno EL NIÑO en el Perú

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An operational definition for the coastal region of Peru:

The Multisectorial Committee for the National Study of El Niño – ENFEN, has determined an index to

define the occurrence and magnitude of El Niño on the coastal region of Peru, named ICEN, in Spanish (El Niño Coastal Index).

In this context, the condition statement of El Niño from ENFEN may or may not match NOAA’s diagnoses, because NOAA centers on the monitoring of the thermal anomalies of the central equatorial Pacific (Niño 3.4 Region), whose large scale appearances, depending

on its intensity, alter the worldwide climate through teleconnections, including Peru.

The ICEN is based on an average of three consecutive months of monthly anomalies of the sea surface temperature in the region named Niño 1+2. That is, it is named “El Niño Event in the coastal region of Peru” (or similar expression) to the period in which the ICEN indicates “warm conditions” for at least three (3) consecutive months (Figure 8).

Figure 8: El Niño Coastal Index (ICEN). El Niño and La Niña coastal events indicated in red and blue, respectively. Source: ENFEN

°C

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Characteristics of El Niño in Peru

During the development of an El Niño episode, depending of its intensity and temporarily, the

behavior of the meteorological conditions at the national territory, provoking anomalies in the behavior of the rains and air temperatures, mainly on the western spring

and the High Plateau, just as it can be appreciated by means of data observed by SENAMHI during the two big extraordinary El Niño episodes happened in the years 1982/1983 and 1997/199813.(Chart 3).

Chart 3. Characteristics of the two extraordinary El Niño episodes in Peru.

El Niño manifestations in Peru are summarized in Chart 4:

Chart 4. General manifestations of El Niño

13. El Niño 1991/92 was not cataloged as one of extraordinary intensity; However, it generated intense droughts in the Andean region.

Precipitation AnomaliesPrecipitation Anomalies

El Niño1982-1983

On the north coast: 3000 mm between September and May; in Summer, bigger nucleuses in Piura.

13On the Southern highlands : Severe deficit of precipitation.

El NiñoEpisodeEl NiñoEpisode

Minimum temperature Anomalies

Minimum temperature Anomalies

+8,0 °C (Chiclayo)+10,0 °C (Chimbote)

El Niño1997-1998

North coast: 3000 mm between September and May; in the summer, bigger nucleus in Piura and Tumbes; increments of about 2000% in some northern coastal stations: Miraflores, Talara (Piura), Tumbes; heavy rains in Lambayeque; rains in Lima.On the Southern highlands: Defic i t o f precipitation.

+8,0 °C from Chiclayoto the Small North

Trade winds weakening along the coast.

Air temperature increased in coastal areas

adjacent to the hot sea, and throughout the

troposphere.

Moisture content increased in the air.

Increasing cloudiness in the summer and

spring seasons.

Decreased atmospheric pressure.

In the oceanIn the ocean

Increase in the sea surface and sub-

surface temperature.

Sea level rise in the heating zone.

Decreased outcrop of cold water and

nutrients to the surface.

Variation of salinity in coastal waters.

Oxygen content increased.

In the atmosphereIn the atmosphere

Source: Own elaboration on basis of referential bibliography.

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Impacts of El Niño, from strong to extraordinaryClimate variations that Peru demonstrates from one

year to another, known as interannual variability, are largely determined by the presence of El Niño. Extreme events associated with it are causing impacts and affecting the living conditions of the population.

El Niño of 1972/73 is called “El Niño olvidado” (The forgotten El Niño, in English) (Glantz, 1996), since if compared to the 1982/83 and 1997/98 extraordinary events, such statement seems accurate; however, Peru does not forget it. It is in this Niño’s context that the collapse of the fishing industry occurs in the country. Besides, similar effects happened in the world: Russia registered a harsh fall in grain production, that forced it to import great quantities of wheat and U.S. corn, which meant a scarcity of these products at worldwide scale. The soja bean, a food for animal consumption, would replace the wheat in a moment of nutritious global crisis.

The climatic anomalies of the early 70s, according to Glantz, encouraged not only the oceanographic, atmospheric and biological investigations, it would give rise to the development of a multidisciplinary field

investigation since then it has been known as Impacts Assessment Related Climate. Such assessments interrelate climate variability and human activities.

Observed this way, Peru shows a great vulnerability to drastic climate variations, such as the extreme rain episodes and the high temperatures associated with El Niño. An evidence of it is the economic losses that events like The 1982/83 El Niño (loss of US$ 3283 million) and the 1997/98 El Niño (caused estimated damage in US$ 3500 million), equivalent losses to 11.6 % and 6.2 % of annual GDP of 1983 and 1998, respectively14.

Chart 5 summarizes the positive and negative impacts of El Niño, associates with the air temperatures increase and heavy rains that occur during El Niño episodes from strong to extraordinary.

14. The amounts in dollars express these values at 1998 prices for the comparison of both events. Source: Vargas, P., 2009 - Central Reserve Bank of Peru.

Effects of the rains in Piura in 1998. Bolognesi bridge aerial photos. Source: Louis Lévano - El Tiempo Newspaper (Piura)

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Chart 5. El Niño impacts in Peru.

It should be understood that not only El Niño (depending on its intensity) produces catastrophes in the countries in the region. The events that show up on a regular basic as part of the climate variability, without being connected to El Niño necessarily also make it. Risk management is a theme of the moment, because the impacts for extreme climate have been increasing (CAN, 2004).

Source: Own compilation based on referential bibliography.

Positive ImpactsPositive Impacts

Negative ImpactsNegative Impacts

Occurrence of other pelagic species.

Increase of rains and air temperature favors the development of rice cultivation on the coast.

Heavy rains in El Niño from strong to extraordinary events, favor natural regeneration of dry forests on the north coast.

Occurrence of temporary meadows on the north coast is important for the cattle industry,

Excessive rains favor the aquifer recharge.

High sea temperatures during fall and winter, favor decrease in frost intensity in the central highlands and north.

Acceleration of glacier regression.

Loss of agricultural lands.

Silting of reservoirs.

Soil salinization.

Destruction of productive infrastructure (irrigation canals, water intake, gates, etc.)

Destruction of communication channels (roads and collapsed bridges).

Death or migration of some plant and animal species.

High probability of occurrence of forest fires due to high temperatures.

High temperatures generate impact on cattle production (low production of meat and milk)

Decreased potato production on the coast and highlands, due to high temperatures and excess moisture.

In some cultivation, the vegetative cycle is shortened; absence of floral induction.

Destruction of basic sanitation infrastructure.

Increase in diseases such as cholera, malaria, stomach infections and conjunctivitis.

A mass of anchovy moving into deep waters, which cannot be compensated by the presence of new species.

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Background of El Niño in Peru

16. Physical Geography and Climatology of the Northern Coastline in the Bulletins N° 7, 8 and 9 of the Geographic Society of Lima. Lima, December 31, 1897.

In the last five centuries there have been at least 120 El Niño episodes, according to the historical investigations compiled by Quinn W., Neal V., and Antúnez de Mayolo S. (1986, 1987; IMARPE, 1999; INDECI, 2002).

Unlike the countries in the Northern Hemisphere, proper instrumentation for climate observation started in Peru just in the second decade of the XXth Century and in some specific regions of the country. It is from the year 1965, when the most of the meteorological and hydrological stations are installed in our territory, where sustained climate observation started. That is why Peru does not count on observational records that report manifestations of El Niño episodes before that date.

However, various publications report estimates of testimonies in relation to the occurrence of this phenomenon. For example, the bulletins of the Geographical Society of Lima published in December 1897, show Antonio Raimondi’s manuscripts on oceanography and climatology of our coastline, that report the occurrence of extreme events associated to marine and coastal warming in the north of the country, which according to Eguiguren (1895) would correspond to one El Niño event.

Following, we see some fragments of this text prepared by Antonio Raimondi in the XIX century:

El Niño as such, is known since pre-Inca civilizations as the Moche, the Lima, the Nazca settled down at the coasts of the ancient Peru. Geomorphology, sediment studies and paleontology indicate that El Niño has occurred for at least 40.000 years. Besides, these archaeological investigations prove that drastic climate changes affected the central coast of Peru (Lima Culture, approximately 400 AC)

The situation turned out to be especially dramatic for the Moche nation on the northern coast of Peru (200–700 AC). Everything indicates than during the first decades of the VII century of our era, this prosperous civilization suffered the havoc of a prolonged and relentless El Niño episode.

During the XX century and even before the 1997/98’s extraordinary El Niño, about 25 El Niño episodes of different intensity occurred; The bibliographic references suggest that El Niño events of 1891 and 1925 were events of comparable intensity to the ones belonging to 1982/83 and 1997/98. So far in the XXI century, according to the ONI index (Oceanic Niño Index) of NOAA, four El Niño episodes have encountered in the central Pacific; Two of weak intensity (Years 2004/05 and 2006/07) and two of moderate intensity (years 2002/03 and 2009/10).

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"On a night in November 1867, it was heard in several towns on the north

coast some cannon detonations. In the port of Guañape this phenomenon

with clear and serene sky took place; detonations were heard towards the

sea coming from the north and were preceded by a very bright light that lit

up the whole beach, and you could tell by some, it showed a long distance

at the sea northwest a �xed light. It began at 7 at night and lasted until 2 in

the morning.

Trujillo experienced the same thing, but with cloudy sky. Further north, in

the town of Magdalena de Cao, thunder was heard, followed by a heavy

rain shower, which was so copious that led to water �ows along the streets,

a rare on the coast of Peru.For the long duration of the anomaly observed at the Guañape port that

lasted 7 hours, it cannot be due to a simple storm such as the one

experienced in Magdalena de Cao, and everything seems to suggest that

there has been o�shore a submarine eruption and the storm held in

Magdalena de Cao was not an e�ect of this last one.Be that as it may, the truth is that this was followed by a change in the

direction of the ocean current, a rise in sea temperature, a mass mortality of

�sh, whose bodies were thrown to the beach��

26 El Niño in Peru

What should we do?

Surely we should intensify the monitoring and the multidisciplinary investigation as the main strategy to generate and manage our knowledge about El Niño. Another aspect, every bit as important, it is to understand the social and

economic dimensions of climate impacts in society. Forecasting the impacts of El Niño is complex, because each event is different and unique at the same time. Besides, it underlies the fact that not all climate anomalies that take place during El Niño are attributable to the anomaly, since these can be part of other forms of natural variability.

These events associated to climate variability do not only affect the economy of the countries affected by it, but they bring a consequence of their impacts to the social and even political structure.

Therefore, it is necessary to assess the relevance of new forms of governance that integrate the environmental issues to development policies. This implies learning how to live together with climate variability, value and use the positive aspects of the event and to mitigate the negative aspects through policies designed for such effect.

MINAM photo

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El Niño in Peru28

Inter-institutional strategy to monitor and to forecast El NiñoIn Peru, the monitoring of the ocean-atmospheric conditions are accomplished by the Multisectorial Committee for the National Study of El Niño (ENFEN), a scientific official entity that involves researchers from six national institutions:

• Marine Research Institute of Peru – IMARPE.• National Meteorology and Hydrology Service of Peru

- SENAMHI.• Geophysical Institute of Peru – IGP.• Direction of Hydrology and Navigation – DHN.• National Institute of Civil Defense – INDECI.• Water National Authority - ANA.

This Committee permanently informs to authorities and to the population about the ocean–atmospheric conditions, its relation to the occurrence of El Niño and its evolution.

SENAMHI, as part of ENFEN, is the institution responsible for forecasting the atmospheric conditions linked to the occurrence of extreme events associated to El Niño, in addition to the evaluation and permanent monitoring of the atmospheric circulation in the tropical region in order to forecast El Niño. It also disseminates information services about El Niño/La Niña, as well as meteorological, hydrological and climate warnings.

NOTE: For this publication, information has been compiled from different field research, studies, technical notes and data from other sources. The corresponding authors are listed in the reference section..

Press conference of the Multisector Committee for the National Study of El Niño – ENFEN (03/19/2014)SENAMHI photo

SENAMHI - 2014 29

ENFEN keeps the authorities involved in the task of preventing the risk of El Niño always

informed

ESTUDIO NACIONAL DEL FENÓMENO “EL NIÑO”

El Niño in Peru30

Government strategy for disaster risk management in PeruA new approach in the allocation of budget resources: “To go from an inertial budget allocation to a resource allocation by results, taking into account the priorities of attention that the citizens require and appreciate”.

Since 2007, Peru has been executing the most important reform in the National Budget System: The Budget by Results (PPR, in Spanish), which is a

public management strategy that entails the resource allocation to products and measurable results in favor of the population, a strategy that implies surpassing the traditional way to accomplish the allocation process, approval, execution, monitoring and evaluation of the Public Budget. (Ministry Of Economic and Finance – MEF).

The Meteorology and Hydrology National Service of Peru - SENAMHI, has participated in PPR 068 since 2012, offering results linked to the reduction of the population vulnerability and its livelihoods to the occurrence of climate-related natural hazards such as: heavy rains, frost, cold fronts, droughts, El Niño, among other extreme events. A set of articulated interventions among several sectors comprises its participation: Agriculture, dwelling, Construction and Sanitation, Territorial management, Transportation, health, INDECI, MEF, etc.

Since 2014, along with other ENFEN institutions, SENAMHI consolidates its contribution to the risk of

disaster management in the country through the Product: “Entities permanently informed and with forecasts before El Niño”. This product considers disclosure diagnoses of evolution of the oceanographic, atmospheric conditions and biological fishing grounds, as well as forecasts of El Niño based on international climate models, through monthly technical reports in their brief and extended versions. SENAMHI contribution, with the aim of strengthening the investigation capacities of El Niño in the country, is through the activity “Study and Monitoring of the effects of El Niño on atmospheric conditions at the national level”.

The budget by results linked to the disaster risk management: Budget program 068 Vulnerability Reduction and Emergencies Attention Service for Disasters – PREVAED

NOTEFor this publication, information has been compiled from different work investigations, studies, technical notes and data from other sources. The corresponding authors are listed in the reference section.

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To learn more about El NiñoReferences:

1. ASHOK, K., S. K. BEHERA, S. A. RAO, H. WENG, and T. YAMAGATA, 2007. El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection, J. Geophys. Res., 112, C11007, doi: 10.1029/2006JC003798.

2. ASHOK, K., y T. YAMAGATA, 2009. The El Niño with a difference. Nature. 461, 481-484. (Nature Site).3. B. WANG, 2012. Kelvin Waves. University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, USA4. CAF, 2000. Las lecciones de El Niño: Perú.5. CAN, 2009. Estrategia andina para la prevención y atención de desastres. Decisión número 713 del Consejo Andino

de Ministros de Relaciones Exteriores. 40 pp.6. ENFEN, 2012. Nota técnica: Definición operacional de los eventos El Niño y La Niña y sus magnitudes en la costa

del Perú. 3 pp.7. EGUIGUREN, V. 1895. Las lluvias en Piura, en Boletín de la Sociedad Geográfica de Lima, tomo IV, No 7, 8 y 9, 1894,

pp. 241-258; y Las lluvias en Piura: Fundación y traslaciones de la ciudad de San Miguel de Piura. Lima: Imprenta Liberal, 1895.

8. FLORES, E. I., 2005. Pucllana, esplendor de la Cultura Lima. Lima, Instituto Nacional de Cultura. 86 pp.9. FRANCO, E., 2006. El Niño en el Perú: viejos y nuevos temas. En: Gestión de riesgo y adaptación al cambio

climático. Revista Tecnología y Sociedad. Soluciones Prácticas-ITDG. pp. 155-166.10. GILL, A. E; RASMUSSON E. M., 1983. The 1982/83 climate anomaly in the equatorial Pacific. Nature 305, pp. 2

29-234. 11. GLANTZ, M. H., 1996. Currents of change: El Niño’s impact on climate and society. Cambridge University Press.

ISBN 0521 49580 6. 194 pp. 12. INDECI, 2002. Plan de contingencia para el Fenómeno El Niño 2002-2003. 57 pp. 13. MANTUA, N. J., HARE, S. R., 2002. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation. J. Oceanography N° 58, pp. 35–44.14. OMM, 2004. La predicción de El Niño: el aporte de la ciencia al siglo XXI. America Latina. The Flip Side of Science.

M. H. Glantz. 43 pp.15. PROMPERU, 1999. Perú et El Niño, aprendiendo de la naturaleza. PromPerú. Lima, Perú. 340 pp.16. QUINN, W., NEAL, V. T., and ANTÚNEZ DE MAYOLO, S., 1986. Preliminary report on El Niño occurrences over the

past four and a half centuries, Nat. Sci. Found., ATM-85 15014, 36 pp. 17. QUINN, W., NEAL, V. T., and ANTÚNEZ de MAYOLO, S., 1987. El Niño occurrences over the past four and a half

centuries. Jour. Geophys. Res., 93(C13): 14449-14461. 18. RASMUSSON, E. M., CARPENTER, T. H. 1982. Variations in tropical sea surface temperatura and surface wind fields

associated with the Southern Oscilation/El Niño. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110: 354-384

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19. SENAMHI-Perú, 1999. Fenómeno El Niño 1997/98. 84 pp. 20. SANABRIA J., 2012. Impacto de la variabilidad y cambio climático en la agricultura peruana. Servicio Nacional de

Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú - SENAMHI.21. TAKAHASHI, K., A. MONTECINOS, K. GOUBANOVA y B. DEWITTE, 2011. ENSO regimes: Reinterpreting the canonical

and Modoki El Niño, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L10704, doi:10.1029/2011GL047364.22. TRENBERT, K. E., 1990. Recent observed interdecadal climate changes in the northern hemisphere, Bull. Amer.

Meteorol. Soc., no. 71, pp. 988–993.23. TRENBERT, K. F., 1997. The definition of El Niño. Bulletin AMS, 78; pp. 2771-2777.24. VARGAS, P., 2009. El cambio climático y sus efectos en el Perú. Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. D.T. Nº 2009-

14. Working papers series. 59 pp.25. WYRTKI, K., 1975. El Niño The dynamic response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to atmospheric forcing. J. Phys.

Oceanograph. 5, pp. 572-584.

Links of interest

http://www.bom.gov.au

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/

http://www.inocar.mil.ec/modelamiento/elnino/

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/

https://www.meted.ucar.edu/

http://www.senamhi.gob.pe/?p=0220

http://www.imarpe.gob.pe/

http://www.igp.gob.pe/

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory

http://elnino.noaa.gov/

34 El Niño in Peru

Photos: SENAMHI

National Meteorology and Hydrology Services of Peru SENAMHIJr. Cahuide 785 Jesus Maria

Telephones: (511) 6141414 (main station) and (511) 6141407 (Forecasts)

www.senamhi.gob.pe

El Niño in Peru