El Niño

Past, present and future perspectives

M Jarraud

Secretary-General Emeritus

World Meteorological Organization

www.wmo.int

Rome, 17 March 2016

El Niño (1997)

La Niña (1988)

Largest component of

internal climate variability

Global impacts

Major actor in human

history

Significant progress in

understanding and

prediction, but…

Important remaining

questions!

2

El Niño: Much ado

about something

El Niño: a brief history of time

3

Fishing off the coast of Peru

• Observed for many centuries

with failures of fish catch

• Often near Christmas

• El Niño

• At the same time…

Droughts in China and Africa

Failure of monsoon in India

As a result, tens of millions

died from famine

El Niño and Southern Oscillation: ENSO

4

El Niño: Ocean component of ENSO

Southern Oscillation: atmospheric

component of ENSO

Connection discovered

in 1960s-1970s

Intensive observation

campaigns and research

(1980s-1990s)

significantly improved predictive skill (1990s-2000s)

ENSO: Current state of knowledge

5

Equator

120°E 60°W

Increased convection

Thermocline

El Niño

ENSO: Current state of knowledge

6

Strong convection

La Niña

Cold upwelling

Equator

120°E 60°W

Thermocline

7

Zimbabwe Chennai-India

Indonesia Peru

El Niño: Impacts

8

December-February

Wet

Dry and warm

Dry and warm

Warm

Warm

Warm

Warm

Warm Wet

Wet

Wet

Wet and warm

Wet and cold

Dry

Dry

EL Niño: Impacts

9

June-August

Dry

Dry

Dry and cold Wet

Wet Warm

Warm

Dry and warm

ENSO: Impacts

10

Warm and wet

More hurricanes

Fewer hurricanes

Also:

• Global temperature

• Sea level

Global surface temperature anomalies 1950-2015

11

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

ENSO: Impacts

12

Can affect tens of million people

Increased frequency of extreme events (droughts,

floods, fires…)

Food security (severe reduction or even total loss of

harvest, need to slaughter cattle…)

Health (diseases transmitted by insects, or linked to

quality of water or air pollution…)

Energy production (in particular hydro power)

Environment (coral bleaching…)

Economic losses attributed to 1997-98 El Niño: 30 to 100

billions $. Direct setback to sustainable development

Weather-to-climate: seamless framework

13

Adapted from NOAA 2011

Forecast

uncertainty

Minutes

Hours

Days

1 Week

2 Weeks

Months

Seasons

Years

Decades

Centuries

Weather forecasting

Climate predictions

Climate scenarios

and projections

Fo

reca

st

lead

tim

e

Socioeconomic benefits

Warnings and

alert

coordination

Watches

Scenarios

Outlooks

Guidance

Threat

assessment

Forecasts

Skill of SST Forecast for JFM from North America Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)

CorrelaEon (x10)

HIGH SKILL

LOW SKILL

MEDIUM SKILL

ENSO predictions

15

16

Regional climate outlooks

and climate services

Food Security Outlook for Horn of Africa based on seasonal forecast

Projected food security outcomes,

October to December 2015

Consensus Climate Outlook for

September to December 2015

Probabilistic El Niño forecast – 11 February 2016

17

The future

18

Further investments in observation and research

(including social sciences)

Capacity development

Climate change and ENSO

Further development of climate services (GFCS), in

close cooperation with all relevant partners and

stakeholders. Need for stronger 2 ways communication

Need for strengthened regional cooperation

Need for more systematic socio economic impact

studies

19

Stakeholder engagement

Effective engagement of

various stakeholders

essential to the

implementation of GFCS

Definition of principles

allowing future

designation of activities

implemented by various

stakeholders as

contributing to GFCS

Weather • Climate • Water 20

GFCS is a partnership

However…

21

Mummy, it’s El

Niño

ENSO is a normal part

of climate system

Not every weather or

climate anomaly can

be attributed to El Niño

Link with climate

change still unclear

Forecasting ENSO

different from

forecasting its impacts

(after M Glantz – 2000)

Weather • Climate • Water 22

Thank you

www.wmo.int

спасибо

شكرا

谢谢

Gracias

Merci

Thank you

Current ENSO

23

ENSO: Current state of knowledge

24

Precise definition difficult

Every 2 to 10 years

No two ENSO are identical

Significant historical

variability (over last 10 to

20 000 years), derived

from:

• Pollens, corals,

sediments, tree rings,

…

From observations to prediction

25

26

Space-based component of the Global Observing System

From observations to prediction

27

Over 3600 ARGO floats

Made March 1997

Made June 1997

Made September 1997

Forecasts of the 1997-98 El Niño From the Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin (COLA)

Global surface temperature anomalies 1880-2015

over 5 and 10 years

29

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

5-year anomaly

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

10-year anomaly