ekos cbc survey results apr 162
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TRANSCRIPT
Copyright 2009. No reproduction without permission
The Political Landscape in Canada:Results of an EKOS Survey for the CBC
April 2009
Copyright 2009. No reproduction without permission
Methodology
This survey was conducted April 8-13, 2009 using EKOS’ unique hybrid internet-telephone research panel, Probit. This panel is randomly recruited from the general population, meaning that, the only way to be included in Probit is through random selection. Unlike opt-in internet-only research panels, Probit supports confidence intervals and error testing.
• In total, a random sample of 1,587 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey.
• A sample of this size provides a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as regions).
• All the data were statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.
Copyright 2009. No reproduction without permission
Canadian Outlook
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4741
12
3849
13
0
20
40
60
80
100
Right direction Wrong direction DK/NR
…the country… …the Government of Canada…
Direction of country and government
BASE: Canadians; Apr. 8-13 (n=half sample)
Q. All things considered, would you say [the country/the Government of Canada] is moving in theright direction or the wrong direction?
Copyright 2009. No reproduction without permission
Wrong
Right
Wrong
Right
DirectionVote Intention
BQGreenNDPLPCCPCOverall
153522188238…the Government
of Canada…635366691349
537161432141
401530427247
…the country…
Direction of country/government by vote intention
Q. All things considered, would you say [the country/the Government of Canada] is moving in theright direction or the wrong direction?
BASE: Canadians; Apr. 8-13 (n=half sample)
Copyright 2009. No reproduction without permission
0
20
40
60
80
100
2006 2007 2008 2009
Right direction Wrong direction DK/NR
Q. All things considered, would you say that the Government of Canada is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction?
Tracking direction of the Government of Canada
BASE: BASE: BASE: BASE: Canadians; most recent data point is from Apr. 8-13 (half sample)
3849
13
Right directionWrong directionDK/NR
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63
9
28
4352
50
20
40
60
80
100
"Careful approach" "Bold new vision" DK/NR
Perceived Preferred
Perceived vs. preferred government approach
BASE: Canadians; Apr. 8-13 n=1587
Q. Which of the following BEST describes the way the Government of Canada is currently operating? Is it following a careful, steady-as-she-goes approach or providing a bold new vision for the future of the country? And which way would you PREFER the Government of Canada to operate?
Copyright 2009. No reproduction without permission
2
37
17
45
0 20 40 60 80 100
Health of democracy in Canada
8
40
33
19
0 20 40 60 80 100
Healthy
Neither
Unhealthy
DK/NR
Q. How would you rate the overall health of democracy at the federal level in Canada?
Q. And compared to 20 years ago, would you say the health of democracy at the federal level in Canada is better, worse, or about the same?
Better
The same
Worse
DK/NR
BASE: BASE: BASE: BASE: Canadians; Apr. 8-13 n=1587
Copyright 2009. No reproduction without permission
The Political Landscape in Canada
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Vote intention
ATLQCONSK/MBABBC/TERNational
19.311.714.828.55.823.815.5
--39.5--------9.4
8.84.910.80.79.77.58.1
39.633.042.039.125.034.636.7
32.410.932.431.759.534.030.2
8.55.74.310.37.86.02.5Margin of error:
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
BASE: BASE: BASE: BASE: Decided voters; Apr. 8-13 n=1476
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Current vote intention vs. past election results
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Dec. 2-3, 2008 Jan. 15-17, 2009 Apr. 8-13, 2009
C
L
N
G
B2006ElectionResults
2008ElectionResults
BASE: BASE: BASE: BASE: Decided voters; Apr. 8-13 n=1476
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9 1525
47
50
20
40
60
80
100
As soon aspossible
Before the endof 2009
In the next 2years
Not until theend of the 4-
year term
DK/NR
Preferred date for next election
BASE: Canadians; Apr. 8-13 n=1587
Q. If you could choose, when would you want the next federal election to be held?
Copyright 2009. No reproduction without permission
35
8
17
21
12
11
26
54
46
28
36
7
39
38
37
50
52
82
0 20 40 60 80 100
Elizabeth May
Stephen Harper
Jack Layton
Michael Ignatieff
Gilles Duceppe (Quebec only)*
Barack Obama
DK/NR Disapprove Approve
Job approval ratings for federal political leaders
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the following leaders are handling their jobs?
BASE: BASE: BASE: BASE: Canadians; Apr. 09 n=1587/*Quebec only (n=329)
Approval Rating Jan. 09
81
63
44
44
35
42
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644680361037Jack Layton
474434803350Michael Ignatieff
90315530952Gilles Duceppe*
878588907282Barack Obama
Elizabeth May
Stephen Harper
Leader
39
38
Overall Approval
Vote Intention
BQGreenNDPLPCCPC
4176464918
1028181491
Approval of leaders by vote intention
BASE: BASE: BASE: BASE: Canadians; Apr. 09 n=1587/*Quebec only (n=329)
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the following leaders are handling their jobs?
Copyright 2009. No reproduction without permission
7
9
50
57
44
34
0 20 40 60 80 100
Dalton McGuinty**
Jean Charest*
DK/NR Disapprove Approve
Job approval ratings for provincial political leaders
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the following leaders are handling their jobs?
BASE: BASE: BASE: BASE: Apr. 09; *Quebec only (n=329)/**Ontario only (n=561)
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Outlook on the Economy & the Global Economic Crisis
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
"I think there is a good chance I could lose my job over the next couple of years.""I feel I have lost all control over my economic future."
Tracking Economic & Employment Insecurity
BASE: BASE: BASE: BASE: Canadians; most recent data point is from Apr. 8-13 n=1587
% agree
29
16
Copyright 2009. No reproduction without permission
18
55
27
0 20 40 60 80 100
Impact of economic crisis on retirement plans
2
16
40
43
0 20 40 60 80 100
Yes
No
DK/NR
Q. Have your retirement plans changed as aresult of the current economic crisis?
Q. Which of the following best explains how your retirement plans have changed? Have you...
…pushed back date of retirement
Other
DK/NR
BASE: BASE: BASE: BASE: Canadians; Apr. 8-13 n=1587/*have changed plans (n=502)
…drastically cut back expenditures
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Soundness of economic plans
16
41
18
25
4
44
21
31
020406080100
Sound (5-7)
Somewhat sound (4)
Not very sound (1-3)
DK/NR19
15
28
39
5
18
23
54
0 20 40 60 80 100
Q. From what you have heard, how sound would you say … plans are to combat the current recession?
…the Conservative government’s… …Barack Obama’s…
BASE: Canadians; most recent data point Apr. 8-13 n=1587
Apr. 09
Jan. 09
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48
27
23
Greed and incompetence at root of economic crisis
Consumers spending beyond their means on houses and other things they could not afford
BASE: BASE: BASE: BASE: Canadians; Apr. 8-13 n=1587
Q. From your own point of view, which of the following factors contributed most to producing the current global economic crisis?
Inadequate financial oversight by governments
The greed and incompetence of the world of business
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52 35
7
Taxed at a rate of 90% for any income over $1 million
Set by the boards of corporations as they are now
Submitted to shareholders for their approval
BASE: Canadians; Apr. 8-13 n=1587
Executive compensation seen as in need of reform
Q. There is a lot of talk about how high executive compensation has risen in recent years. From your perspective, do you think that executive pay and bonuses should be…
Copyright 2009. No reproduction without permission
1
3
2
1
2
10
1
67
63
51
46
38
23
30
20
21
27
29
35
29
31
12
12
20
24
25
38
38
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Executives of lg. businesses
Stock brokers
Investment advisors
Bankers
Economists
NGOs
Public servants
DK/NR Low (1-3) Moderate (4) High (5-7)
Trust in occupations
Q. How much trust you have in the following occupational groups?
BASE: BASE: BASE: BASE: Canadians; Apr. 8-13 n=1587
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Attitudes towards diversity
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5
31
64
0 20 40 60 80 100
Role for diversity in building a more tolerant society
Having a multicultural blend of different cultures provides a richer, more tolerant society
Too much diversity can weaken a society and it would be better if we all subscribed
to the same values and culture
DK/NR
BASE: BASE: BASE: BASE: Canadians; Apr. 8-13 n=1587
Q. Which of the following two statements comes closest to your own point of view?
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The Mission in Afghanistan
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0
20
40
60
80
100
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Oppose Neither Support
Support for military participation in Afghanistan
BASE: BASE: BASE: BASE: Canadians; most recent data point is from Apr. 8-13 n=1587
Q. Do you support or oppose Canadian military participation in Afghanistan?
39
11
48
SupportNeitherOppose
Copyright 2009. No reproduction without permission
For more information:
FRANK GRAVES EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATESt: 613.235.7215e: [email protected]
PAUL ADAMSEKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATESt: 613.235.7215e: [email protected]