eircom results presentation · (together the “group”) nor are the information or documents...
TRANSCRIPT
eircom Results Presentation
November 29, 2013
Herb Hribar – CEO eircom Group
Richard Moat – CFO eircom Group
First Quarter FY 13/14 Results Presentation
© eircom
This presentation contains information and documents for information purposes only. They do not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as an advertisement, an
offer or an invitation to subscribe to or to purchase securities of eircom Finance Limited or any of its subsidiaries, holding companies and subsidiaries of its holding companies
(together the “Group”) nor are the information or documents contained thereon meant to serve as a basis for any kind of contractual or other obligation. This presentation does
not constitute a prospectus or a prospectus equivalent document.
By reviewing the information in this presentation you agree to the terms of this disclaimer.
This presentation should not be treated as giving investment advice. No specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient have been taken into
consideration in connection with the preparation of this presentation.
This presentation may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and Section 27A of the US Securities Act
of 1933 regarding certain of the Group’s plans and its current goals, intentions, beliefs and expectations concerning, among other things, the Group’s future results of operation,
financial condition, liquidity, prospects, growth, strategies and the industries in which the Group operates. These forward looking statements can be identified by the fact that they
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‘plan,’ ‘seek,’ ‘continue,’ ‘target,’ ‘goal,’ ‘would’, or their negative variations or similar expressions identify forward looking statements. By their nature, forward-looking statements
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forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and that its actual results of operations, financial condition and liquidity and the development of the
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This presentation has not been approved by any regulatory authority. This presentation has been prepared by, and is the sole responsibility of, the Group and has not been
independently verified
Disclaimer
2
Agenda
Trading Q4 FY 13/14
Key themes for FY14
Q&A
Business update
Economic update
3
Business highlights
© eircom
Business highlights
• Continued EBITDA stability
• Significant capability delivered:
– 600,000 premises passed with fibre ahead of
schedule and extending footprint to 1.4 million
premises
– First to market with 4G services
– TV launched enabling TV triple play and unique
quad play
• Continued postpay growth driving improved mobile
profitability despite SAC investment. Prepay churn
remains high
• Strong Wholesale growth partially offsetting Retail
fixed access losses
• Competitive intensity creating challenges in delivery
of B2B stabilisation and growth
• Cost transformation on track – IE scheme to deliver
further 1,100 FTE reduction
• Continued progress but trading conditions are
intense and significant challenges remain
4
© eircom
Agenda
Trading Q4 FY 13/14
Key themes for FY14
Q&A
Business update
Economic update
5
Business highlights
© eircom
The Irish economy continues
to show positive signs
6
UNEMPLOYMENT CONTINUES TO FALL
CONSUMER SENTIMENT RISING
IMPROVEMENT IN RETAIL SALES VOLUMES
BUSINESS SENTIMENT RISING
0
20
40
60
80
100
-80-60-40-20
020406080
100
90
100
110
120
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
• Ireland set to make clean exit from Troika bailout
• However, budget 2014 implemented €2.5bn of cuts; €0.9bn tax rises & €1.6bn spending cuts
– Included within the budget was the full removal of the DSP telephone allowance
Source: Ibec, CSO,
E&Y economic eye
winter forecast
© eircom
Agenda
Trading Q4 FY 13/14
Key themes for FY14
Q&A
Business update
Economic update
7
Business highlights
© eircom 8
Group fixed line: Launch of new
products and services to drive growth
FIXED ACCESS ‘000 FIXED BROADBAND ‘000
NETWORK INVESTMENT
• Extending to 1.4 million premises by Jul ‘16
• 600,000 premises passed Sep ’13 ahead of
schedule
• 700,000 by Dec ‘13
• Uncongested speeds of up to 70Mb/s
• Speeds of up to 100Mb/s by Jan 14
RANGE OF NEW SERVICES
• High speed fibre broadband launched
in May ‘13 - 66,000 customers to date
• TV launched Oct ‘13
• Triple play bundles with TV launched
• Quad play bundles now uniquely
available in Ireland
• Fixed/mobile bundles launched
Oct ‘12 & continue to grow - 38,000
customers to date
459 461 455 451 447
202 204 208 218 230
661 665 663 668 677
Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14
Retail Broadband Wholesale Broadband
979 964 940 917 896
387 392 400 414 431
1,366 1,356 1,340 1,331 1,327
Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14
Retail Access Lines Wholesale Access Lines
© eircom
• Key enabler for quad play
• 34 channel entry level package for €10 per
month
• Content delivering c. 80 channels
• Add on services including Setanta Sports,
BT Sport, Sky* Sports and Sky Movies
• Intuitive PVR & engaging UI
TV launched in Oct 13
enabling quad play
* Sky Sports 1, Sky Sports 2, Sky Movies Premiere, Sky Movies Showcase, Sky Movies
Disney, Sky Movies Family, Sky Movies Action & Adventure, Sky Movies Comedy 9
© eircom © eircom
Mobile profitability: Further EBITDA growth in Q1 FY14 while
delivering significant postpay growth
10
EBITDA
€2m
2%
€9m
9%
Q1 FY13 Q1 FY14
GROWTH/CHURN
• Continued postpay growth – 86k YoY & 24k
in Q1 FY 14
• 36% of base is now postpay customers –
from 27%
• Strong performance in business mobile
• Postpay churn improvements
• Prepay churn challenging
IMPROVING CAPABILITY
• 4G services launched covering
38% of the population
• Upgrade to Dual Carrier on 3G
42Mbit/s in Dublin, Cork,
Limerick & Galway
IMPROVED COVERAGE
• Deployment of U900 to 74%
population, improving our 3G
footprint and in-building speeds
NETWORK
© eircom
First Irish operator to launch 4G in Ireland
delivering average download speeds of 21Mb/s
• Highly positive feedback
• 26% population coverage
at launch
• 38% population coverage
at November ‘13
• 50% population coverage
by June ‘14
• 19 4G devices available
• Establishing eircom as
a technology leader
11
© eircom
Cost transformation:
€68m run rate savings achieved
1 Excludes SAC and Phonewatch opex 2 Q4 normalised level of opex (excl one-offs) was €137.6m - run rate equivalent of €68m saving vs FY12 opex of €618m1 3 Run rate of €100 million by Q4 of FY14 compared to FY12
QUARTERLY OPEX1 FY 14A (000’S) HIGHLIGHTS
• YoY opex Improvement of €17m
• Run rate equivalent to a €68m2 saving
over full year opex of €618m1 in
FY11/12
• 908 reduction in FTE employees YoY
(including reversal of the 9DF)
EFFICIENT COST BASE CRITICAL
• Fixed & Mobile sectors remain highly competitive
• ARPU’s and revenues coming under pressure
• Cost reduction essential to deliver the plan
KEY DELIVERABLES FY 14
• Opex reduction of €100m by Q43 FY 14 (vs. FY 12)
• Further FTE reductions to secure 2,000 exits
– Recent IE Scheme to deliver further 1,100
• Significant operating site consolidation
• Shared services consolidation
• Drive operational efficiencies
12
159 159
153
148
165 165
159
154152 149
146
133
133
Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14
€m
Actual 11/12
Actual 11/12 (Gross 9DF)Actual 12/13
Actual 13/14
© eircom
Incentivised exit scheme to deliver FTE
reduction of 1,100 by Dec ‘14
1Mixture of opex & capex exits
Targeted incentivised
exit (“IE”) scheme to
deliver remainder of
2,000 targeted
resource reduction
Accelerated exits
give more certainty to
planned rightsizing
and cost savings
Short term backfill
required to meet
customer demands
and maintain customer
experience
1,100 exits1 - 80% by
Dec ’13
Average tenure of
35 years
Cost of €180 million
€145 million by Jun ’14 &
€35 million by Dec ’14
Av. cost 1,100 IE exits - €164k
Av. cost all IE exits - €140k
Delivers streamlined
& flexible organisation
No further IE schemes
expected
13
© eircom
Agenda
Trading Q4 FY 13/14
Key themes for FY14
Q&A
Business update
Economic update
14
Business highlights
© eircom
Trading highlights
3 months to September 30, 2013
15
• Q1 EBITDA of €119m highlighting continued
stabilisation
• Pressure on fixed Line revenues, in both
Consumer and B2B, partially offset by
Wholesale growth
• Group access line losses of 4k in quarter, down
from 15k last year - growth in group broadband
of 9k
• Strong growth in mobile postpay – 24k net adds
in Q1, 86k net adds in year - but continuing
prepay weakness
• Mobile EBITDA up €6m versus last year, despite
increased SAC investment to drive long term
sustainable growth
• Strong cost control – €17m saving YoY – Q1
annualised savings €68m
• Continued investment in growth programmes
during Q1 - €73m incurred capex , up 39% YoY
• Maintaining strong liquidity – closing cash
€324m
YoY comparison adjusted to exclude results from Phonewatch in Q1 FY 13
© eircom
Group EBITDA
1The EBITDA results of Phonewatch Limited, which was disposed of in May 2013, are excluded in the results for
the quarter ended 30 September 2012. For information purposes only the results for Q1 FY 13 for Phonewatch
were revenue of €7 million, operating costs of €4 million and EBITDA of €3 million 2 Numbers in the above tables have been presented to the nearest million and therefore totals presented above
may vary slightly from the actual arithmetic totals of such information
16
• Group EBITDA of €119m was
€1m behind budget and prior
year.
• Group revenue €323m was 1%
below budget and 9% down on
the prior year quarter
– Fixed revenue down 10%
reflecting reduced fixed line
access volumes and traffic
usage in the period
– Mobile revenue down 5%
reflecting reduced MTRs /
ARPUs and reduction in
prepay base offset by strong
growth in postpay base
• Mobile SACs €1m higher than
budget due to strong postpay
growth
• Group operating costs of €140m
were broadly in line with budget
and 11% lower than in prior year
quarter reflecting strong
performance on cost
transformation
• Fixed EBITDA 6% down on prior
year, in line with expectations,
while mobile EBITDA has grown
strongly in the period
Q1 v Budget v Budget v Prior Year1 v Prior Year
FY 14 Better/(Worse) Better/(Worse) Better/(Worse) Better/(Worse)
€m €m % €m %
Fixed Revenue 249 (1) (1%) (29) (10%)
Mobile Revenue 86 (0) (0%) (5) (5%)
Eliminations (11) 0 0% 2 15%
Group Revenue 323 (2) (1%) (32) (9%)
Cost of Sales (64) 1 1% 13 17%
Gross Profit 259 (1) (0%) (19) (7%)
% Margin 80.2%
Pay Costs (63) 1 2% 8 11%
Non Pay Costs (77) (2) (3%) 9 11%
Operating Expenses (140) (1) (0%) 17 11%
Group EBITDA 119 (1) (1%) (1) (1%)
Fixed 111 (1) (1%) (8) (6%)
Mobile 9 1 6% 6 275%
© eircom
Monthly trading to September 30, 2013
Actual Operating Costs (€m)
1
Avg: €40m Avg: €40m
1 Includes €2m corporate finance costs 2 FY 13 data presented above includes results from Phonewatch up to the date of disposal in May 2013 17
117123118120115107
116113115104110108106
Sep 1
2
Oct 12
No
v 1
2
De
c 1
2
Jan 1
3
Fe
b 1
3
Ma
r 13
Apr
13
Ma
y 1
3
Jun 1
3
Jul 13
Aug 1
3
Sep 1
3
51 52 51 54 5248
5248 49
4448 47 45
Sep 1
2
Oct
12
No
v 1
2
De
c 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Fe
b 1
3
Ma
r 1
3
Apr
13
Ma
y 1
3
Ju
n 1
3
Ju
l 1
3
Au
g 1
3
Se
p 1
3
41 42 4037
40 39 42 41 42 40 40 39 40
Sep 1
2
Oct 12
No
v 1
2
De
c 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Feb
13
Ma
r 13
Apr
13
Ma
y 1
3
Jun 1
3
Jul 13
Aug 1
3
Sep 1
3
92 94 91 91 93 88 94 89 9184 88 86 85
Se
p 1
2
Oct 12
No
v 1
2
De
c 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Fe
b 1
3
Ma
r 1
3
Ap
r 1
3
Ma
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3
Ju
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3
Ju
l 1
3
Au
g 1
3
Se
p 1
3
• The business has
continued to perform in line
with management
expectations showing
EBITDA stability over the
last five quarters
• During the quarter, monthly
EBITDA remained
relatively constant in the
range €39-€40m.
• Continued pressure on
fixed line revenues and
margins in both consumer
and B2B segments,
partially offset by growth in
wholesale
• Strong focus on reducing
operating costs over the
period
Actual EBITDA (€m)
Actual Revenue (€m) Actual Gross Margin (€m)
© eircom
38.2 37.9 38.0 38.0 37.8
16.3 16.0 17.5 16.8 16.0
45.8 45.4 46.4 46.1 45.9
Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14
Retail PSTN Retail Broadband
Retail Blended ARPU
Fixed line KPIs - retail
18
17.8%16.5%
20.5%21.9% 21.4%
24.1 %
20.8 %
25.1 %26.6% 27.2 %
Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14
Consumer Access Churn (%)Consumer Broadband Churn (%)
5,1
33
4,1
80 6,3
34
5,2
99
6,0
93
7,8
12
9,1
36
6,8
92
9,9
51
6,4
48 8
,95
7
7,1
06
5,2
26
Se
p 1
2
Oct
12
No
v 1
2
De
c 1
2
Jan
13
Fe
b 1
3
Ma
r 1
3
Ap
r 13
Ma
y 1
3
Jun 1
3
Jul 13
Au
g 1
3
Se
p 1
3
979 964 940 917 896
459 461 455 451 447
Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14
Retail Access Lines Retail Broadband Lines
Total Retail Lines (000’s) Fixed Line Churn (%)
Retail Access Line Losses ARPU (€)
• Competitive environment
within consumer and B2B
remains intense
• Average rate of retail fixed line
losses at 7k per month in Q1
compared to 8k in Q4 FY13
and 6k in Q1 FY13
• Recent announcement of full
removal of DSP subsidy from
1 Jan 2014 will maintain
pressure on churn
• Retail Broadband lines
declined by 4k in the quarter
but fibre take up starting to
have an impact on base
stabilisation
• In Q1, eircom was first
operator to launch unique
quad play including fibre
broadband - key enabler of
return to retail broadband
growth
• ARPU for Q4 was in line with
the prior year and the previous
quarter, contributing to relative
stability in EBITDA
performance over the last
quarter
© eircom
Fixed line KPIs - wholesale
19
387 392 400 414 431
202 204 208 218 230
Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14
Wholesale Access Lines
Wholesale Broadband Lines
17.9 18.0 18.3 17.5 17.7
29.8 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.3
Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14
WLR ARPU WLR & BITSREAM ARPU
3,3795,366
7,334
14,15817,225
Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14
WLR net growth
2,506 1,8843,621
10,06311,944
Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14
Broadband net growth
Wholesale Lines (000’s) ARPU (€)
Wholesale Access Line Growth Wholesale Broadband Growth
• Strong growth in wholesale
has partially offset declines in
Retail
• Wholesale access lines grew
by 17k or 4% in the quarter
and by 44k or 11% compared
to last year
• Wholesale Bitstream
(Broadband) grew by 12k or
5% in the quarter which drove
overall Group broadband
growth of 9k lines or 16k YoY
• Wholesale growth equals
approximately 80% of Retail
losses – historical rate was
23%
• Retail and Wholesale
combined share of the fixed
broadband market was ~65%
at June 30, 2013
• Wholesale business critical to
ensuring that eircom network
retains scale and is the
national network of choice for
operators in the market
© eircom
785 770 735 702 676
295 316 331 357 381
1079 1086 1076 1,059 1057
Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14
Prepay Subscribers Postpay Subscribers
21 21
15
2624
Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14
Postpay Subscribers Growth
Mobile KPIs
1 Includes Mobile Broadband and M2M 20
19.7 19.1 17.7 18.4 17.3
42.4 41.338.8 39.4 38.0
Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14
Prepay Postpay
52.7 %56.8 % 58.6 % 57.5%
59.0 %
19.7%17.0% 16.1% 15.7% 16.3%
Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14
Prepay Postpay
Total Handsets (000’s) Postpaid Growth (‘000)
Mobile Churn (%) Prepaid vs. Postpaid ARPU1 (€)
• Strong rate of postpaid growth
maintained with net adds of
24k in the quarter
• At end Sept 13, total postpaid
subscribers were 381k, an
increase of 86k YoY
• Postpay ARPU decline from
€39.40 in Q4 FY13 to €38
attributable to MTR reduction
on 1 July
• Reduced rate of ARPU decline
going forward as MTR
reductions bottoming out
• Postpay churn reduced from
19.7% in Q113 to 16.3% in
Q114
• Prepay handset subscribers
declined by 26k during the
period driven by pre to post
migrations (12k in the quarter)
and high levels of customer
churn
• 36% eircom subscribers on
postpaid contracts - up from
27% as at Sept 2012 and 34%
as at June 12
© eircom
1 Excludes cost of sales, non-cash pension charge, non-cash lease fair value credits, amortisation, depreciation, and exceptional items
FY 13 includes operating costs in relation to Phonewatch up to the date of disposal in May 2013 2 For indicative purposes includes impact of reversal of 9-day fortnight working arrangement in Oct 12 – 450 FTE 3 Approximate targeted FTE by Dec ‘14
Operating cost breakdown
21
€87m €85m €84m €80m €77m
€73m €73m €70m
€60m €63m
€160m €157m €154m
€140m €140m
Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14
Total Non Pay Costs Total Pay Costs
5,110
450
5,560 5,444
4,9294,705 4,652
3,500
Q1 13A Q2 13A Q3 13A Q4 13A Q1 14A Q2 15E
FTE 9 day fortnight
2
3
Operating Costs1 (000’s) Full Time Equivalent Headcount
• Operating costs flat on Q4 FY 13
but €20m lower than prior year
quarter (€17m including
phonewatch)
• Pay Costs €10m lower year on year
• Prior year pay costs included c.€6m
savings from 9 day fortnight which
was reversed in October 2013
• Pay cost savings driven by
substantial headcount reductions of
908 FTE compared to the prior year
quarter (ex impact of 9DF of 450
FTE
• FTE of 4,652 at end of Sept 13
compared with 5,560 (adjusted for
9DF) at end of Sept’12
• Non-pay costs down €10m YoY
and reduced by €3m during the
quarter ended Sept ’13
• Current VL scheme will deliver
further 1,100 headcount reduction
by Dec ‘14 – deliver targeted right
sized organisation of c.3,500 FTE
• Gives more certainty to delivery of
savings, in both pay and capex
costs, already included in the plan
© eircom
€39m €39m €44m€54m
€46m
€14m €21m€27m
€45m
€28m
€144m
€53m
€204m
€71m
€99m
€73m
Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14
Capex¹ NGA Spectrum
Capex breakdown
Capex % Revenue2
1 Incurred capex 2 Includes spectrum investments in Q2 FY 13
22
14.6%
56.5%
21.0%
29.7%
22.7%
• Incurred capex of €73m in Q1
FY14 compared to €53m in same
quarter last year
• Continued focus on growth
programmes
– €28m spend on rollout of NGA
fibre network
– €46m spend on network and
BAU capex and spend on
other key programmes
including IPTV, 4G and next
generation billing system
• FY13 and FY14 are peak years of
capex investment, with NGA
rollout and 4G largely complete
by FY15
© eircom
eircom maintains strong cash balance
23 1 Other operating cashflow includes €(1)m WC and €(2)m tax,
Operating +€21m
Financing -€21m
© eircom
Pension Update
• Minimum Funding Standard (wind up basis)
- Main Fund satisfied MFS at 30 Sept 2013 (110% cover)
- No Funding proposal required, no cash call
• Triennial Funding Valuation (in progress for value date 30 Sept 2013)
- Past obligations: Current expectation is that outcome will be broadly square
- Future obligations: Circa 1,100 exits expected by Dec 2014 will reduce future accrual and funding
costs
• Floor on contributions of €20m per annum expires on 31 Dec 2013 and future funding rate will
be reset as part of outcome of actuarial funding request to Board
• IAS 19 Deficit
- Deficit of €844m at the end of quarter 1 FY14 due to prescribed discount rate use for liabilities
(AA- Corporate Bond Yield 3.55%)
- No Debt on the Employer, no funding proposal, no cash call
• Full update to be provided in Q3 FY14
24
© eircom
Agenda
Trading Q4 FY 13/14
Key themes for FY14
Q&A
Business update
Economic update
25
Business highlights
© eircom © eircom
Delivery of FY14 imperatives underway
COST TRANSFORMATION
• Secured headcount reductions – 1,950
• Non pay savings
• Drive operational efficiencies
• Deliver €100m savings by Q4
FIXED LINE RETENTION MOBILE PROFITABILITY
• Network improvement:
3G & 4G
• Postpay momentum,
utilising 4G advantage
• New propositions to
reduce prepay churn
• Fibre
- Over 100,000
customers Jun ’14
- 1,000,000
premises Jun ‘14
• TV launched Oct ‘13
• Triple & quad pay bundling Oct‘13
GROWTH
• Wholesale
• Mobile for business
• Cloud & ICT
• Datacentre
26
© eircom
Agenda
Trading Q4 FY 13/14
Key themes for FY14
Q&A
Business update
Economic update
27
Business highlights
Thank you
28