efficiency energy for the future sustainable development, step 1 reduce worldwide energy intensity...

Efficiency

Energy for the Future

Sustainable Development, Step 1Reduce Worldwide Energy Intensity by 2% Per Year

Talk at Global Energy International PrizePresentation and Symposium.

University of California at Berkeley, 19 Nov. 2003

Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commissioner

California Energy Commission

(916) 654-4930

[email protected]

www.Energy.CA.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfeld.html

Arthur Rosenfeld, Figure 2

Efficiency


TW Power Demand in IPCC Base CaseCompared To Other Cases

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

19

80

19

90

20

00

20

10

20

20

20

30

20

40

20

50

20

60

20

70

20

80

20

90

21

00

21

10

Base Case Assumptions = IS 92a

Improved efficiency case = IS 92a with E/GDP at -2%/yr

EIA International Energy Outlook 2003

Like Improved Case starting with World at current EU E/GDP

1990 to 2000 Actuals from EIA

- 0.8% until 2020then - 1.0% = - 2.0 % from 2000 until 2100

Av

era

ge

TW

α α =

α = Annual change in E/GWP


Efficiency


United States Refrigerator Use v. TimeAnnual drop from 1974 to 2001 = 5% per year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1947

1949

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

Av

era

ge

En

erg

y U

se

pe

r U

nit

So

ld (

kW

h p

er

ye

ar)

0

5

10

15

20

25

Ref

rig

erat

or

volu

me

(cu

bic

fee

t)

Energy Use per Unit

Refrigerator Size (cubic feet)

1978 Cal Standard

1990 Federal Standard

1987 Cal Standard

1980 Cal Standard


2001 FederalStandard


Efficiency


United States Refrigerator Use v. Time

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

1947

1949

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

Ave

rag

e E

ern

gy

Use

per

Un

it S

old

(kW

h p

er y

ear)

0

5

10

15

20

25

Ref

rig

erat

or

volu

me

(cu

bic

fee

t)

Energy Use per Unit

Refrigerator Size (cubic feet)

Refrigerator Price in 1983 Dollars

$ 1,270

$ 462


Efficiency


United States Refrigerator Use (Actual) and Estimated Household Standby Use v. Time

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1947

1949

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

Ave

rage

En

ergy

Use

per

Un

it S

old

(k

Wh

per

yea

r)

Refrigerator Use per Unit

1978 Cal Standard


1987 Cal Standard

1980 Cal Standard

1993 Federal Standard 2001 Federal

Standard

Estimated Standby Power (per house)


Efficiency


Electricity Generating Capacity for 150 Million Refrigerators + Freezers in the US

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

at 1974 efficiency at 2001 efficiency

GW

capacity savedcapacity needed


Efficiency


Electricity Use of Refrigerators and Freezers in the US compared to Generation from Nuclear, Hydro, Renewables, Three Gorges Dam and ANWR (Arctic National Wildlife Refuge)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800B

illio

n k

Wh

per

yea

r

150 M Refrig/Freezers

at 1974 eff at 2001 eff

Nuclear

Conventional Hydro

3 GorgesDam

Existing Renewables

50 Million 2 kW PV Systems

Sa

ved

Use

d Use

d


Efficiency


The Value of Energy Saved and Produced. This is previous figure re-stated in dollars with generation worth $.03/kWh and savings worth $.085/kWh)

0

5

10

15

20

25

Bil

lio

n $

per

ye

ar

Dollars Saved from150 M Refrig/Freezersat 2001 efficiency

Nuclear

Conventional

Hydro

Existing Renewables

50 Million 2 kWPV Systems

3 GorgesDam

ANWR


Efficiency


3 Gorges Dam vs. added Appliances in 20103 Gorges: 18 GW x 3,500 hours/year = 63 TWh at wholesale

Source: David Fridley - LBNL

Conclusion: Optimum appliances could save 35 TWh/year, about one-half of 3 Gorges generation in 2010. Savings at retail at least twice as valuable as wholesale, so economically equivalent to the entire 3 Gorges project.

Refrigerators Air Conditioning TotalEstimated Sales 2003 - 2010 125 Million 100 Million

Today's Useper unit per year 440 kWh 360 kWh 2003-2010 sales at this efficiency 55 TWh 36 TWh 91 TWh

Least Cost Optimumper unit per year 265 kWh 233 kWh 2003-2010 sales at high efficiency 33 TWh 23 TWh 55 TWhPercent Saved 40% 35%

Savings from Least Cost Optimum 22 TWh 13 TWh 35 TWh


Efficiency


20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

Year

Ind

ex (

1972

= 1

00)

Effective Dates of National Standards

=

Effective Dates of State Standards

=

Refrigerators

Central A/C

Gas Furnaces

EER = 12

Impact of Standards on Efficiency of 3 Appliances

Source: S. Nadel, ACEEE,

in ECEEE 2003 Summer Study, www.eceee.org

75%

60%

25%


Efficiency


Annual Usage of Air Conditioning in New Homes in California

Annual drop averages 4% per year

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,00019

70

197

2

197

4

197

6

197

8

198

0

198

2

198

4

198

6

198

8

199

0

199

2

199

4

199

6

199

8

200

0

200

2

200

4

200

6

kWh

/YE

AR

Source: CEC Demand Analysis Office

1992 Federal Appliance Standard

California Title 20 Appliance Standards1976-1982

Initial California Title 24 Building Standards

Estimated Impact of 2006 SEER 12 Standards

100%

33%


Efficiency


Impact of Standards on Residential Central A/C and Roof Top A/C Units in the United States

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004Year

Ind

ex (

1972

= 1

00)

EER = 12

300 GW

200 GW


Efficiency


Estimated Power Saved Due to Air Conditioning Standards (1974 - 2002)

Peak Power for United States Air Conditioning ~ 250 GW But standards cover only residential and rooftop units ~ 200 GW

Avoided GW: 100 GW Comparisons:

– United States Nuclear Plants net capability ~ 100 GW– California Peak Load ~ 50 GW

Cooler roofs will save another 10% of 200 GW

– Flat roofs, new or replacement, should be white• To be required in 2005 California Building Standards

– Sloped roofs, new or replacement, can be colored but cool

– Each strategy saves 10%, so 20 GW total


Efficiency


Total Electricity Use, per capita, 1960 - 2001

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,0001

96

0

19

62

19

64

19

66

19

68

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

KW

h

12,000

8,000

7,000

California

U.S.

kWh


Efficiency

Energy for the Future Source: Mike Messenger, CEC Staff, April 2003

GWH Impacts from Programs Begun Prior to 2001

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

GW

H

Utility Programs: at a cost of ~1% of Electric Bill

Building Standards

Appliance Standards

~ 14% of Annual Use in California in 2001


Efficiency


Electricity Efficiency and Renewables in CaliforniaGoals of California Energy Action Plan 2003

California kWh per capita is already flat compared to U.S. climbing 2%/yr. New California goal is to reduce kWh per capita by 1/2% to 1% each year Renewable Portfolio Standard: add 1% of renewables per year Additional peak reduction of 1% per year by Demand Response when power

is expensive or reliability is a problem

In total, goals aim to reduce electricity growth, increase renewables, and grow demand response


Efficiency


The Transition to a Sustainable Future

Past investments in efficiency have reduced growth and saved money In addition, future investments could significantly reduce world

energy demand and carbon emissions We now turn our discussion from electricity to primary energy Additional details will be available in Energy Efficiency and Climate

Change, Rosenfeld, et.al., in The Encyclopedia of Energy, Elsevier, 2004


Efficiency


World Primary Energy Consumption1980 to 2001

Source: EIA

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Qu

ad

s (

10^

15

BT

Us

)

20-year annual growth was 1.7%


Efficiency


United States Energy Consumption 1949 to 2001Source: Table 1.5 Annual Energy Review; data for 2001 is preliminary

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1949

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

Qu

adri

llio

n B

tus


Efficiency


Energy Consumption Per Person 1949 to 2001Source: Table 1.5 Annual Energy Review; data for 2001 is preliminary

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1949

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

Mill

ion

Btu

s


Efficiency


Energy Consumption Per $ of Gross Domestic Product 1949-2001Source: Table 1.5 Annual Energy Review; data for 2001 is preliminary

0

5

10

15

20

25

1949

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

Th

ou

san

d B

tus

per

Ch

ain

ed 1

992

Do

llar


Efficiency


Annual Rate of Change in Energy/GDP for the United States International Energy Agency (IEA) and EIA (Energy Information Agency)

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

IEA data EIA data

- 2.7%Average = - 0.7%- 3.4%


Efficiency


Annual Rate of Change in Energy/Gross State Product for California(Sources: EIA and California Department of Finance)

-7.0%

-6.0%

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

Average = -1.0% -4.5% -3.9%


Efficiency


Annual Rate of Change in Energy/GDP for Europe IEA (Energy/Purchasing Power Parity) for European Union and

Western Europe EIA (Energy/Market Exchange Rate)

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

IEA data EIA data

- 1.2% Average = - 1.3% - 1.4%


Efficiency


Annual Rate of Change in Energy/GDP for China IEA (Energy/Purchasing Power Parity) and EIA (Energy/Market Exchange Rate)

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

IEA data EIA data

- 4.8% Average = - 5.0% - 5.3%


Efficiency


Annual Rate of Change in Energy/GDP for the World IEA (Energy/Purchasing Power Parity) and EIA (Energy/Market Exchange Rate)

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

IEA data EIA data

note: Russia not included until 1992 in IEA data and 1993 in EIA data

- 1.3% - 1.3%Average = - 0.7%


Efficiency


Energy Intensity By Geographic Region 1980 to 2001 (Btus/$US 1995) from EIA data

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

year

Btu

s/$

US

(19

95)

Africa Central & South America

Far East & Oceania North America

Western Europe world total without EE and USSR

North America

World

Europe


Efficiency


Energy Intensity By Geographic Region plus China 1980 to 2001 (Btus/$US 1995) from EIA data

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

year

Btu

s/$

US

(19

95)

Africa Central & South America

Far East & Oceania North America

Western Europe world total without EE and USSR

China


Efficiency


TW Power Demand in IPCC Base CaseCompared To Other Cases

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

19

80

19

90

20

00

20

10

20

20

20

30

20

40

20

50

20

60

20

70

20

80

20

90

21

00

21

10

Base Case Assumptions = IS 92a

Improved efficiency case = IS 92a with E/GDP at -2%/yr

EIA International Energy Outlook 2003

Like Improved Case starting with World at current EU E/GDP

1990 to 2000 Actuals from EIA

- 0.8% until 2020then - 1.0% = - 2.0 % from 2000 until 2100

Av

era

ge

TW

α α =

α = Annual change in E/GWP


Efficiency


0

10

20

30

40

50

The “Conservation Bomb”(World Primary Power or Energy)

TW

a

2000 2100

= -2%/yr

= -3%/yr = -4%/yr

6 billion people @ 2 kW = 12 TW

10 billion people @ 5 kW = 50 TW

Year

= Annual % growth in Energy/GDP

Qu

ad

s/y

r

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

= -1%/yr

GWP = $ 25 Trillion

GWP = $ 250 Trillion


Efficiency


Primary Energy Demand of The Developing World at 5 KW per personWith Efficiency and GDP per capita equal to Western Europe

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

year

Qu

ads

4.5 Billion people @ 1 KW

8 Billion people @ 5 KW

8 Billion people @ 2 kW

Current World Demand ~ 13 TWa

TWa

20

10

40

30

α = - 1.4% / year

α = - 1.0% / year extra


Efficiency


Primary Energy Demand of The Developing plus Developed World at 5 KW per person

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

year

Qu

ads

4.5 Billion people @ 1 KW



Current World Demand ~ 13 TWa

TWa

20

10

40

30

α = - 1.4% / year

α = - 1.0% / year extra


Efficiency


Green House Gas Intensity (GHG/GDP indexed, 2000=1)

y = 6E+24e-0.0285x

R2 = 0.9799

y = 3E+16e-0.019x

R2 = 0.9625

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.619

75

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

Gre

en H

ou

se G

as E

mis

sio

ns

per

Un

it G

DP

(in

dex

ed,

2000

=1)

Administration Goal in 2012

21 year trend (1980 - 2001)

Recent trend (1997 - 2001)

efficiency energy for the future sustainable development, step 1 reduce worldwide energy intensity...

Documents