effect of price fluction of money market instruments on commodity futures prices
TRANSCRIPT
Group 1
ECONOMIC STATUS AND IMPACTS ON FUTURES PRICES
OVERVIEW
bull CMEndash Contract information- (JuneJuly 2016)
ndash Data representation- (1st April-6th May)
ndash Economic Analysis
ndash Statistical Inference- (Regression Analysis)
bull PMEXndash Contract information- (JuneJuly 2016)
ndash Data representation- (1st April-6th May)
bull TOCOMndash Contract information- (JuneJuly 2016)
ndash Data representation- (1st April-28th April)
CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE
OVERVIEW
Commodity future contracts to be analyzed
1 Wheat 7 Corn
2 Soy Bean 8 Crude Oil
3 Silver 9 SampP 500
4 Copper 10 Pound Sterling
5 Milk
6 Aluminum
SampP 500
bull Contract Unit- $250 x SampP 500 Index
bull Minimum price fluctuation 005 index points=$1250
bull Settlement Method Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
2120
41
20
16
42
20
16
43
20
16
44
20
16
45
20
16
46
20
16
47
20
16
48
20
16
49
20
16
41
02
01
6
41
12
01
6
41
22
01
6
41
32
01
6
41
42
01
6
41
52
01
6
41
62
01
6
41
72
01
6
41
82
01
6
41
92
01
6
42
02
01
6
42
12
01
6
42
22
01
6
42
32
01
6
42
42
01
6
42
52
01
6
42
62
01
6
42
72
01
6
42
82
01
6
42
92
01
6
43
02
01
6
51
20
16
52
20
16
53
20
16
54
20
16
55
20
16
56
20
16
JUNE 2016 SampP 500 Index Price
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull One of the reason for the declining SampP 500 index is the reduction of output in the retail and manufacturing sector (reduction in global demand)
bull US GDP growth forecast in the 1Q 2016 is 05 compared to 14 in the 4Q 2015ndash Reason- Decline in the inventories (-05)
bull Index for gross domestic purchases increased 03 in 1Q 2016 compared with 04 in 4Q 2015
bull Disposable personal income increased $1065 billion or 32 percent in the first quarter compared with an increase of $890 billion or 27 percent in the fourth
CORRELATION ANALYSIS
bull Historically there has been 40 correlation between the SampP 500 index and the Barclays High Yield Bonds Index
bull Data Source wwwfinanceyahoocom
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0686605
R Square 0471427
Adjusted R Square 0449403
Standard Error 143905
Observations 26
BRITISH POUNDS
bull Contract Unit- 62500 British pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$0001 per British pound increments ($625contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
137
138
139
14
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
41
20
16
42
20
16
43
20
16
44
20
16
45
20
16
46
20
16
47
20
16
48
20
16
49
20
16
41
02
01
6
41
12
01
6
41
22
01
6
41
32
01
6
41
42
01
6
41
52
01
6
41
62
01
6
41
72
01
6
41
82
01
6
41
92
01
6
42
02
01
6
42
12
01
6
42
22
01
6
42
32
01
6
42
42
01
6
42
52
01
6
42
62
01
6
42
72
01
6
42
82
01
6
42
92
01
6
43
02
01
6
51
20
16
52
20
16
53
20
16
54
20
16
55
20
16
56
20
16
JUNE 2016 Pound Currency
Price
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Brexit- Britain eyeing to leave the European Union next monthndash Consequences- sizeable losses in income and increase in the tension
and uncertainty in the economy (bearish forex market)
ndash GDP expected to shrink between 15-95
ndash Increase borrowing costs and sharp drop in equity and house prices
bull Consumer confidence index in negative figures
bull Sterling is also likely to depreciate further [in a Brexit scenario] perhaps sharply
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Bank of England cautioned there were increasing signs that uncertainty associated with the European Union referendum has begun to weigh on activity and could lead to a sharp fall in the value of the pound and to higher unemployment
CORRELATIONAL ANALYSIS
After doing the regression analysis on the price of 10Y UK Treasury bond index spot price and the Sterling Pound futures price the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0852402623
R Square 0726590231
Adjusted R Square 071470285
Standard Error 0008943103
Observations 25
Data source httpwwwinvestingcom
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
3 MONTH KIBOR
bull Contract Unit- PKR 1 Million
bull Price Quotation- 100-3MKIBOR
bull MPF- 1 basis point (001)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
926
928
93
932
934
936
938
94
3 month KIBOR
Total
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
KEROSENE
bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract
bull MPF- JPY 50Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
31000
32000
33000
34000
35000
36000
37000
38000
39000
Kerosene
Total
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
WHEAT
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- $1250 contract
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
4200
4300
4400
4500
4600
4700
4800
4900
5000
5100
5200
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
WHEAT FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots
bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks
bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian
bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons
bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production
ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516
on higher beginning stocks and imports
bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than
offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the
previous year
bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area
bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter
bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0551
R Square 0303
Adjusted R Square 0270
Standard Error 120231
Observations 23
After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound
bull MPF- ($600 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TRENDS
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
SOY BEAN FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports
and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May
bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years
bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes
bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said
bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed
bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 299033
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
SUGAR
bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs001kg
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
535
54
545
55
555
56
SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)
Series1
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
OVERVIEW
bull CMEndash Contract information- (JuneJuly 2016)
ndash Data representation- (1st April-6th May)
ndash Economic Analysis
ndash Statistical Inference- (Regression Analysis)
bull PMEXndash Contract information- (JuneJuly 2016)
ndash Data representation- (1st April-6th May)
bull TOCOMndash Contract information- (JuneJuly 2016)
ndash Data representation- (1st April-28th April)
CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE
OVERVIEW
Commodity future contracts to be analyzed
1 Wheat 7 Corn
2 Soy Bean 8 Crude Oil
3 Silver 9 SampP 500
4 Copper 10 Pound Sterling
5 Milk
6 Aluminum
SampP 500
bull Contract Unit- $250 x SampP 500 Index
bull Minimum price fluctuation 005 index points=$1250
bull Settlement Method Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
2120
41
20
16
42
20
16
43
20
16
44
20
16
45
20
16
46
20
16
47
20
16
48
20
16
49
20
16
41
02
01
6
41
12
01
6
41
22
01
6
41
32
01
6
41
42
01
6
41
52
01
6
41
62
01
6
41
72
01
6
41
82
01
6
41
92
01
6
42
02
01
6
42
12
01
6
42
22
01
6
42
32
01
6
42
42
01
6
42
52
01
6
42
62
01
6
42
72
01
6
42
82
01
6
42
92
01
6
43
02
01
6
51
20
16
52
20
16
53
20
16
54
20
16
55
20
16
56
20
16
JUNE 2016 SampP 500 Index Price
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull One of the reason for the declining SampP 500 index is the reduction of output in the retail and manufacturing sector (reduction in global demand)
bull US GDP growth forecast in the 1Q 2016 is 05 compared to 14 in the 4Q 2015ndash Reason- Decline in the inventories (-05)
bull Index for gross domestic purchases increased 03 in 1Q 2016 compared with 04 in 4Q 2015
bull Disposable personal income increased $1065 billion or 32 percent in the first quarter compared with an increase of $890 billion or 27 percent in the fourth
CORRELATION ANALYSIS
bull Historically there has been 40 correlation between the SampP 500 index and the Barclays High Yield Bonds Index
bull Data Source wwwfinanceyahoocom
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0686605
R Square 0471427
Adjusted R Square 0449403
Standard Error 143905
Observations 26
BRITISH POUNDS
bull Contract Unit- 62500 British pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$0001 per British pound increments ($625contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
137
138
139
14
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
41
20
16
42
20
16
43
20
16
44
20
16
45
20
16
46
20
16
47
20
16
48
20
16
49
20
16
41
02
01
6
41
12
01
6
41
22
01
6
41
32
01
6
41
42
01
6
41
52
01
6
41
62
01
6
41
72
01
6
41
82
01
6
41
92
01
6
42
02
01
6
42
12
01
6
42
22
01
6
42
32
01
6
42
42
01
6
42
52
01
6
42
62
01
6
42
72
01
6
42
82
01
6
42
92
01
6
43
02
01
6
51
20
16
52
20
16
53
20
16
54
20
16
55
20
16
56
20
16
JUNE 2016 Pound Currency
Price
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Brexit- Britain eyeing to leave the European Union next monthndash Consequences- sizeable losses in income and increase in the tension
and uncertainty in the economy (bearish forex market)
ndash GDP expected to shrink between 15-95
ndash Increase borrowing costs and sharp drop in equity and house prices
bull Consumer confidence index in negative figures
bull Sterling is also likely to depreciate further [in a Brexit scenario] perhaps sharply
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Bank of England cautioned there were increasing signs that uncertainty associated with the European Union referendum has begun to weigh on activity and could lead to a sharp fall in the value of the pound and to higher unemployment
CORRELATIONAL ANALYSIS
After doing the regression analysis on the price of 10Y UK Treasury bond index spot price and the Sterling Pound futures price the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0852402623
R Square 0726590231
Adjusted R Square 071470285
Standard Error 0008943103
Observations 25
Data source httpwwwinvestingcom
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
3 MONTH KIBOR
bull Contract Unit- PKR 1 Million
bull Price Quotation- 100-3MKIBOR
bull MPF- 1 basis point (001)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
926
928
93
932
934
936
938
94
3 month KIBOR
Total
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
KEROSENE
bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract
bull MPF- JPY 50Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
31000
32000
33000
34000
35000
36000
37000
38000
39000
Kerosene
Total
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
WHEAT
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- $1250 contract
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
4200
4300
4400
4500
4600
4700
4800
4900
5000
5100
5200
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
WHEAT FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots
bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks
bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian
bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons
bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production
ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516
on higher beginning stocks and imports
bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than
offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the
previous year
bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area
bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter
bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0551
R Square 0303
Adjusted R Square 0270
Standard Error 120231
Observations 23
After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound
bull MPF- ($600 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TRENDS
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
SOY BEAN FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports
and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May
bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years
bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes
bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said
bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed
bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 299033
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
SUGAR
bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs001kg
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
535
54
545
55
555
56
SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)
Series1
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE
OVERVIEW
Commodity future contracts to be analyzed
1 Wheat 7 Corn
2 Soy Bean 8 Crude Oil
3 Silver 9 SampP 500
4 Copper 10 Pound Sterling
5 Milk
6 Aluminum
SampP 500
bull Contract Unit- $250 x SampP 500 Index
bull Minimum price fluctuation 005 index points=$1250
bull Settlement Method Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
2120
41
20
16
42
20
16
43
20
16
44
20
16
45
20
16
46
20
16
47
20
16
48
20
16
49
20
16
41
02
01
6
41
12
01
6
41
22
01
6
41
32
01
6
41
42
01
6
41
52
01
6
41
62
01
6
41
72
01
6
41
82
01
6
41
92
01
6
42
02
01
6
42
12
01
6
42
22
01
6
42
32
01
6
42
42
01
6
42
52
01
6
42
62
01
6
42
72
01
6
42
82
01
6
42
92
01
6
43
02
01
6
51
20
16
52
20
16
53
20
16
54
20
16
55
20
16
56
20
16
JUNE 2016 SampP 500 Index Price
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull One of the reason for the declining SampP 500 index is the reduction of output in the retail and manufacturing sector (reduction in global demand)
bull US GDP growth forecast in the 1Q 2016 is 05 compared to 14 in the 4Q 2015ndash Reason- Decline in the inventories (-05)
bull Index for gross domestic purchases increased 03 in 1Q 2016 compared with 04 in 4Q 2015
bull Disposable personal income increased $1065 billion or 32 percent in the first quarter compared with an increase of $890 billion or 27 percent in the fourth
CORRELATION ANALYSIS
bull Historically there has been 40 correlation between the SampP 500 index and the Barclays High Yield Bonds Index
bull Data Source wwwfinanceyahoocom
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0686605
R Square 0471427
Adjusted R Square 0449403
Standard Error 143905
Observations 26
BRITISH POUNDS
bull Contract Unit- 62500 British pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$0001 per British pound increments ($625contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
137
138
139
14
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
41
20
16
42
20
16
43
20
16
44
20
16
45
20
16
46
20
16
47
20
16
48
20
16
49
20
16
41
02
01
6
41
12
01
6
41
22
01
6
41
32
01
6
41
42
01
6
41
52
01
6
41
62
01
6
41
72
01
6
41
82
01
6
41
92
01
6
42
02
01
6
42
12
01
6
42
22
01
6
42
32
01
6
42
42
01
6
42
52
01
6
42
62
01
6
42
72
01
6
42
82
01
6
42
92
01
6
43
02
01
6
51
20
16
52
20
16
53
20
16
54
20
16
55
20
16
56
20
16
JUNE 2016 Pound Currency
Price
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Brexit- Britain eyeing to leave the European Union next monthndash Consequences- sizeable losses in income and increase in the tension
and uncertainty in the economy (bearish forex market)
ndash GDP expected to shrink between 15-95
ndash Increase borrowing costs and sharp drop in equity and house prices
bull Consumer confidence index in negative figures
bull Sterling is also likely to depreciate further [in a Brexit scenario] perhaps sharply
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Bank of England cautioned there were increasing signs that uncertainty associated with the European Union referendum has begun to weigh on activity and could lead to a sharp fall in the value of the pound and to higher unemployment
CORRELATIONAL ANALYSIS
After doing the regression analysis on the price of 10Y UK Treasury bond index spot price and the Sterling Pound futures price the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0852402623
R Square 0726590231
Adjusted R Square 071470285
Standard Error 0008943103
Observations 25
Data source httpwwwinvestingcom
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
3 MONTH KIBOR
bull Contract Unit- PKR 1 Million
bull Price Quotation- 100-3MKIBOR
bull MPF- 1 basis point (001)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
926
928
93
932
934
936
938
94
3 month KIBOR
Total
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
KEROSENE
bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract
bull MPF- JPY 50Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
31000
32000
33000
34000
35000
36000
37000
38000
39000
Kerosene
Total
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
WHEAT
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- $1250 contract
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
4200
4300
4400
4500
4600
4700
4800
4900
5000
5100
5200
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
WHEAT FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots
bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks
bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian
bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons
bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production
ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516
on higher beginning stocks and imports
bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than
offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the
previous year
bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area
bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter
bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0551
R Square 0303
Adjusted R Square 0270
Standard Error 120231
Observations 23
After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound
bull MPF- ($600 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TRENDS
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
SOY BEAN FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports
and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May
bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years
bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes
bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said
bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed
bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 299033
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
SUGAR
bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs001kg
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
535
54
545
55
555
56
SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)
Series1
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
OVERVIEW
Commodity future contracts to be analyzed
1 Wheat 7 Corn
2 Soy Bean 8 Crude Oil
3 Silver 9 SampP 500
4 Copper 10 Pound Sterling
5 Milk
6 Aluminum
SampP 500
bull Contract Unit- $250 x SampP 500 Index
bull Minimum price fluctuation 005 index points=$1250
bull Settlement Method Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
2120
41
20
16
42
20
16
43
20
16
44
20
16
45
20
16
46
20
16
47
20
16
48
20
16
49
20
16
41
02
01
6
41
12
01
6
41
22
01
6
41
32
01
6
41
42
01
6
41
52
01
6
41
62
01
6
41
72
01
6
41
82
01
6
41
92
01
6
42
02
01
6
42
12
01
6
42
22
01
6
42
32
01
6
42
42
01
6
42
52
01
6
42
62
01
6
42
72
01
6
42
82
01
6
42
92
01
6
43
02
01
6
51
20
16
52
20
16
53
20
16
54
20
16
55
20
16
56
20
16
JUNE 2016 SampP 500 Index Price
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull One of the reason for the declining SampP 500 index is the reduction of output in the retail and manufacturing sector (reduction in global demand)
bull US GDP growth forecast in the 1Q 2016 is 05 compared to 14 in the 4Q 2015ndash Reason- Decline in the inventories (-05)
bull Index for gross domestic purchases increased 03 in 1Q 2016 compared with 04 in 4Q 2015
bull Disposable personal income increased $1065 billion or 32 percent in the first quarter compared with an increase of $890 billion or 27 percent in the fourth
CORRELATION ANALYSIS
bull Historically there has been 40 correlation between the SampP 500 index and the Barclays High Yield Bonds Index
bull Data Source wwwfinanceyahoocom
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0686605
R Square 0471427
Adjusted R Square 0449403
Standard Error 143905
Observations 26
BRITISH POUNDS
bull Contract Unit- 62500 British pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$0001 per British pound increments ($625contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
137
138
139
14
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
41
20
16
42
20
16
43
20
16
44
20
16
45
20
16
46
20
16
47
20
16
48
20
16
49
20
16
41
02
01
6
41
12
01
6
41
22
01
6
41
32
01
6
41
42
01
6
41
52
01
6
41
62
01
6
41
72
01
6
41
82
01
6
41
92
01
6
42
02
01
6
42
12
01
6
42
22
01
6
42
32
01
6
42
42
01
6
42
52
01
6
42
62
01
6
42
72
01
6
42
82
01
6
42
92
01
6
43
02
01
6
51
20
16
52
20
16
53
20
16
54
20
16
55
20
16
56
20
16
JUNE 2016 Pound Currency
Price
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Brexit- Britain eyeing to leave the European Union next monthndash Consequences- sizeable losses in income and increase in the tension
and uncertainty in the economy (bearish forex market)
ndash GDP expected to shrink between 15-95
ndash Increase borrowing costs and sharp drop in equity and house prices
bull Consumer confidence index in negative figures
bull Sterling is also likely to depreciate further [in a Brexit scenario] perhaps sharply
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Bank of England cautioned there were increasing signs that uncertainty associated with the European Union referendum has begun to weigh on activity and could lead to a sharp fall in the value of the pound and to higher unemployment
CORRELATIONAL ANALYSIS
After doing the regression analysis on the price of 10Y UK Treasury bond index spot price and the Sterling Pound futures price the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0852402623
R Square 0726590231
Adjusted R Square 071470285
Standard Error 0008943103
Observations 25
Data source httpwwwinvestingcom
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
3 MONTH KIBOR
bull Contract Unit- PKR 1 Million
bull Price Quotation- 100-3MKIBOR
bull MPF- 1 basis point (001)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
926
928
93
932
934
936
938
94
3 month KIBOR
Total
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
KEROSENE
bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract
bull MPF- JPY 50Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
31000
32000
33000
34000
35000
36000
37000
38000
39000
Kerosene
Total
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
WHEAT
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- $1250 contract
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
4200
4300
4400
4500
4600
4700
4800
4900
5000
5100
5200
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
WHEAT FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots
bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks
bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian
bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons
bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production
ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516
on higher beginning stocks and imports
bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than
offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the
previous year
bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area
bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter
bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0551
R Square 0303
Adjusted R Square 0270
Standard Error 120231
Observations 23
After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound
bull MPF- ($600 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TRENDS
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
SOY BEAN FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports
and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May
bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years
bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes
bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said
bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed
bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 299033
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
SUGAR
bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs001kg
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
535
54
545
55
555
56
SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)
Series1
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
SampP 500
bull Contract Unit- $250 x SampP 500 Index
bull Minimum price fluctuation 005 index points=$1250
bull Settlement Method Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
2120
41
20
16
42
20
16
43
20
16
44
20
16
45
20
16
46
20
16
47
20
16
48
20
16
49
20
16
41
02
01
6
41
12
01
6
41
22
01
6
41
32
01
6
41
42
01
6
41
52
01
6
41
62
01
6
41
72
01
6
41
82
01
6
41
92
01
6
42
02
01
6
42
12
01
6
42
22
01
6
42
32
01
6
42
42
01
6
42
52
01
6
42
62
01
6
42
72
01
6
42
82
01
6
42
92
01
6
43
02
01
6
51
20
16
52
20
16
53
20
16
54
20
16
55
20
16
56
20
16
JUNE 2016 SampP 500 Index Price
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull One of the reason for the declining SampP 500 index is the reduction of output in the retail and manufacturing sector (reduction in global demand)
bull US GDP growth forecast in the 1Q 2016 is 05 compared to 14 in the 4Q 2015ndash Reason- Decline in the inventories (-05)
bull Index for gross domestic purchases increased 03 in 1Q 2016 compared with 04 in 4Q 2015
bull Disposable personal income increased $1065 billion or 32 percent in the first quarter compared with an increase of $890 billion or 27 percent in the fourth
CORRELATION ANALYSIS
bull Historically there has been 40 correlation between the SampP 500 index and the Barclays High Yield Bonds Index
bull Data Source wwwfinanceyahoocom
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0686605
R Square 0471427
Adjusted R Square 0449403
Standard Error 143905
Observations 26
BRITISH POUNDS
bull Contract Unit- 62500 British pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$0001 per British pound increments ($625contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
137
138
139
14
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
41
20
16
42
20
16
43
20
16
44
20
16
45
20
16
46
20
16
47
20
16
48
20
16
49
20
16
41
02
01
6
41
12
01
6
41
22
01
6
41
32
01
6
41
42
01
6
41
52
01
6
41
62
01
6
41
72
01
6
41
82
01
6
41
92
01
6
42
02
01
6
42
12
01
6
42
22
01
6
42
32
01
6
42
42
01
6
42
52
01
6
42
62
01
6
42
72
01
6
42
82
01
6
42
92
01
6
43
02
01
6
51
20
16
52
20
16
53
20
16
54
20
16
55
20
16
56
20
16
JUNE 2016 Pound Currency
Price
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Brexit- Britain eyeing to leave the European Union next monthndash Consequences- sizeable losses in income and increase in the tension
and uncertainty in the economy (bearish forex market)
ndash GDP expected to shrink between 15-95
ndash Increase borrowing costs and sharp drop in equity and house prices
bull Consumer confidence index in negative figures
bull Sterling is also likely to depreciate further [in a Brexit scenario] perhaps sharply
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Bank of England cautioned there were increasing signs that uncertainty associated with the European Union referendum has begun to weigh on activity and could lead to a sharp fall in the value of the pound and to higher unemployment
CORRELATIONAL ANALYSIS
After doing the regression analysis on the price of 10Y UK Treasury bond index spot price and the Sterling Pound futures price the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0852402623
R Square 0726590231
Adjusted R Square 071470285
Standard Error 0008943103
Observations 25
Data source httpwwwinvestingcom
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
3 MONTH KIBOR
bull Contract Unit- PKR 1 Million
bull Price Quotation- 100-3MKIBOR
bull MPF- 1 basis point (001)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
926
928
93
932
934
936
938
94
3 month KIBOR
Total
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
KEROSENE
bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract
bull MPF- JPY 50Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
31000
32000
33000
34000
35000
36000
37000
38000
39000
Kerosene
Total
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
WHEAT
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- $1250 contract
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
4200
4300
4400
4500
4600
4700
4800
4900
5000
5100
5200
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
WHEAT FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots
bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks
bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian
bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons
bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production
ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516
on higher beginning stocks and imports
bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than
offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the
previous year
bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area
bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter
bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0551
R Square 0303
Adjusted R Square 0270
Standard Error 120231
Observations 23
After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound
bull MPF- ($600 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TRENDS
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
SOY BEAN FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports
and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May
bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years
bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes
bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said
bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed
bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 299033
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
SUGAR
bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs001kg
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
535
54
545
55
555
56
SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)
Series1
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
PRICE TREND
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
2120
41
20
16
42
20
16
43
20
16
44
20
16
45
20
16
46
20
16
47
20
16
48
20
16
49
20
16
41
02
01
6
41
12
01
6
41
22
01
6
41
32
01
6
41
42
01
6
41
52
01
6
41
62
01
6
41
72
01
6
41
82
01
6
41
92
01
6
42
02
01
6
42
12
01
6
42
22
01
6
42
32
01
6
42
42
01
6
42
52
01
6
42
62
01
6
42
72
01
6
42
82
01
6
42
92
01
6
43
02
01
6
51
20
16
52
20
16
53
20
16
54
20
16
55
20
16
56
20
16
JUNE 2016 SampP 500 Index Price
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull One of the reason for the declining SampP 500 index is the reduction of output in the retail and manufacturing sector (reduction in global demand)
bull US GDP growth forecast in the 1Q 2016 is 05 compared to 14 in the 4Q 2015ndash Reason- Decline in the inventories (-05)
bull Index for gross domestic purchases increased 03 in 1Q 2016 compared with 04 in 4Q 2015
bull Disposable personal income increased $1065 billion or 32 percent in the first quarter compared with an increase of $890 billion or 27 percent in the fourth
CORRELATION ANALYSIS
bull Historically there has been 40 correlation between the SampP 500 index and the Barclays High Yield Bonds Index
bull Data Source wwwfinanceyahoocom
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0686605
R Square 0471427
Adjusted R Square 0449403
Standard Error 143905
Observations 26
BRITISH POUNDS
bull Contract Unit- 62500 British pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$0001 per British pound increments ($625contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
137
138
139
14
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
41
20
16
42
20
16
43
20
16
44
20
16
45
20
16
46
20
16
47
20
16
48
20
16
49
20
16
41
02
01
6
41
12
01
6
41
22
01
6
41
32
01
6
41
42
01
6
41
52
01
6
41
62
01
6
41
72
01
6
41
82
01
6
41
92
01
6
42
02
01
6
42
12
01
6
42
22
01
6
42
32
01
6
42
42
01
6
42
52
01
6
42
62
01
6
42
72
01
6
42
82
01
6
42
92
01
6
43
02
01
6
51
20
16
52
20
16
53
20
16
54
20
16
55
20
16
56
20
16
JUNE 2016 Pound Currency
Price
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Brexit- Britain eyeing to leave the European Union next monthndash Consequences- sizeable losses in income and increase in the tension
and uncertainty in the economy (bearish forex market)
ndash GDP expected to shrink between 15-95
ndash Increase borrowing costs and sharp drop in equity and house prices
bull Consumer confidence index in negative figures
bull Sterling is also likely to depreciate further [in a Brexit scenario] perhaps sharply
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Bank of England cautioned there were increasing signs that uncertainty associated with the European Union referendum has begun to weigh on activity and could lead to a sharp fall in the value of the pound and to higher unemployment
CORRELATIONAL ANALYSIS
After doing the regression analysis on the price of 10Y UK Treasury bond index spot price and the Sterling Pound futures price the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0852402623
R Square 0726590231
Adjusted R Square 071470285
Standard Error 0008943103
Observations 25
Data source httpwwwinvestingcom
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
3 MONTH KIBOR
bull Contract Unit- PKR 1 Million
bull Price Quotation- 100-3MKIBOR
bull MPF- 1 basis point (001)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
926
928
93
932
934
936
938
94
3 month KIBOR
Total
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
KEROSENE
bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract
bull MPF- JPY 50Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
31000
32000
33000
34000
35000
36000
37000
38000
39000
Kerosene
Total
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
WHEAT
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- $1250 contract
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
4200
4300
4400
4500
4600
4700
4800
4900
5000
5100
5200
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
WHEAT FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots
bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks
bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian
bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons
bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production
ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516
on higher beginning stocks and imports
bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than
offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the
previous year
bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area
bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter
bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0551
R Square 0303
Adjusted R Square 0270
Standard Error 120231
Observations 23
After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound
bull MPF- ($600 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TRENDS
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
SOY BEAN FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports
and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May
bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years
bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes
bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said
bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed
bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 299033
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
SUGAR
bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs001kg
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
535
54
545
55
555
56
SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)
Series1
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull One of the reason for the declining SampP 500 index is the reduction of output in the retail and manufacturing sector (reduction in global demand)
bull US GDP growth forecast in the 1Q 2016 is 05 compared to 14 in the 4Q 2015ndash Reason- Decline in the inventories (-05)
bull Index for gross domestic purchases increased 03 in 1Q 2016 compared with 04 in 4Q 2015
bull Disposable personal income increased $1065 billion or 32 percent in the first quarter compared with an increase of $890 billion or 27 percent in the fourth
CORRELATION ANALYSIS
bull Historically there has been 40 correlation between the SampP 500 index and the Barclays High Yield Bonds Index
bull Data Source wwwfinanceyahoocom
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0686605
R Square 0471427
Adjusted R Square 0449403
Standard Error 143905
Observations 26
BRITISH POUNDS
bull Contract Unit- 62500 British pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$0001 per British pound increments ($625contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
137
138
139
14
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
41
20
16
42
20
16
43
20
16
44
20
16
45
20
16
46
20
16
47
20
16
48
20
16
49
20
16
41
02
01
6
41
12
01
6
41
22
01
6
41
32
01
6
41
42
01
6
41
52
01
6
41
62
01
6
41
72
01
6
41
82
01
6
41
92
01
6
42
02
01
6
42
12
01
6
42
22
01
6
42
32
01
6
42
42
01
6
42
52
01
6
42
62
01
6
42
72
01
6
42
82
01
6
42
92
01
6
43
02
01
6
51
20
16
52
20
16
53
20
16
54
20
16
55
20
16
56
20
16
JUNE 2016 Pound Currency
Price
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Brexit- Britain eyeing to leave the European Union next monthndash Consequences- sizeable losses in income and increase in the tension
and uncertainty in the economy (bearish forex market)
ndash GDP expected to shrink between 15-95
ndash Increase borrowing costs and sharp drop in equity and house prices
bull Consumer confidence index in negative figures
bull Sterling is also likely to depreciate further [in a Brexit scenario] perhaps sharply
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Bank of England cautioned there were increasing signs that uncertainty associated with the European Union referendum has begun to weigh on activity and could lead to a sharp fall in the value of the pound and to higher unemployment
CORRELATIONAL ANALYSIS
After doing the regression analysis on the price of 10Y UK Treasury bond index spot price and the Sterling Pound futures price the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0852402623
R Square 0726590231
Adjusted R Square 071470285
Standard Error 0008943103
Observations 25
Data source httpwwwinvestingcom
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
3 MONTH KIBOR
bull Contract Unit- PKR 1 Million
bull Price Quotation- 100-3MKIBOR
bull MPF- 1 basis point (001)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
926
928
93
932
934
936
938
94
3 month KIBOR
Total
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
KEROSENE
bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract
bull MPF- JPY 50Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
31000
32000
33000
34000
35000
36000
37000
38000
39000
Kerosene
Total
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
WHEAT
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- $1250 contract
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
4200
4300
4400
4500
4600
4700
4800
4900
5000
5100
5200
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
WHEAT FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots
bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks
bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian
bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons
bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production
ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516
on higher beginning stocks and imports
bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than
offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the
previous year
bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area
bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter
bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0551
R Square 0303
Adjusted R Square 0270
Standard Error 120231
Observations 23
After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound
bull MPF- ($600 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TRENDS
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
SOY BEAN FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports
and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May
bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years
bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes
bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said
bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed
bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 299033
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
SUGAR
bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs001kg
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
535
54
545
55
555
56
SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)
Series1
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
CORRELATION ANALYSIS
bull Historically there has been 40 correlation between the SampP 500 index and the Barclays High Yield Bonds Index
bull Data Source wwwfinanceyahoocom
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0686605
R Square 0471427
Adjusted R Square 0449403
Standard Error 143905
Observations 26
BRITISH POUNDS
bull Contract Unit- 62500 British pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$0001 per British pound increments ($625contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
137
138
139
14
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
41
20
16
42
20
16
43
20
16
44
20
16
45
20
16
46
20
16
47
20
16
48
20
16
49
20
16
41
02
01
6
41
12
01
6
41
22
01
6
41
32
01
6
41
42
01
6
41
52
01
6
41
62
01
6
41
72
01
6
41
82
01
6
41
92
01
6
42
02
01
6
42
12
01
6
42
22
01
6
42
32
01
6
42
42
01
6
42
52
01
6
42
62
01
6
42
72
01
6
42
82
01
6
42
92
01
6
43
02
01
6
51
20
16
52
20
16
53
20
16
54
20
16
55
20
16
56
20
16
JUNE 2016 Pound Currency
Price
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Brexit- Britain eyeing to leave the European Union next monthndash Consequences- sizeable losses in income and increase in the tension
and uncertainty in the economy (bearish forex market)
ndash GDP expected to shrink between 15-95
ndash Increase borrowing costs and sharp drop in equity and house prices
bull Consumer confidence index in negative figures
bull Sterling is also likely to depreciate further [in a Brexit scenario] perhaps sharply
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Bank of England cautioned there were increasing signs that uncertainty associated with the European Union referendum has begun to weigh on activity and could lead to a sharp fall in the value of the pound and to higher unemployment
CORRELATIONAL ANALYSIS
After doing the regression analysis on the price of 10Y UK Treasury bond index spot price and the Sterling Pound futures price the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0852402623
R Square 0726590231
Adjusted R Square 071470285
Standard Error 0008943103
Observations 25
Data source httpwwwinvestingcom
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
3 MONTH KIBOR
bull Contract Unit- PKR 1 Million
bull Price Quotation- 100-3MKIBOR
bull MPF- 1 basis point (001)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
926
928
93
932
934
936
938
94
3 month KIBOR
Total
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
KEROSENE
bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract
bull MPF- JPY 50Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
31000
32000
33000
34000
35000
36000
37000
38000
39000
Kerosene
Total
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
WHEAT
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- $1250 contract
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
4200
4300
4400
4500
4600
4700
4800
4900
5000
5100
5200
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
WHEAT FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots
bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks
bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian
bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons
bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production
ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516
on higher beginning stocks and imports
bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than
offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the
previous year
bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area
bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter
bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0551
R Square 0303
Adjusted R Square 0270
Standard Error 120231
Observations 23
After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound
bull MPF- ($600 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TRENDS
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
SOY BEAN FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports
and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May
bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years
bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes
bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said
bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed
bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 299033
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
SUGAR
bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs001kg
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
535
54
545
55
555
56
SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)
Series1
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
BRITISH POUNDS
bull Contract Unit- 62500 British pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$0001 per British pound increments ($625contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
137
138
139
14
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
41
20
16
42
20
16
43
20
16
44
20
16
45
20
16
46
20
16
47
20
16
48
20
16
49
20
16
41
02
01
6
41
12
01
6
41
22
01
6
41
32
01
6
41
42
01
6
41
52
01
6
41
62
01
6
41
72
01
6
41
82
01
6
41
92
01
6
42
02
01
6
42
12
01
6
42
22
01
6
42
32
01
6
42
42
01
6
42
52
01
6
42
62
01
6
42
72
01
6
42
82
01
6
42
92
01
6
43
02
01
6
51
20
16
52
20
16
53
20
16
54
20
16
55
20
16
56
20
16
JUNE 2016 Pound Currency
Price
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Brexit- Britain eyeing to leave the European Union next monthndash Consequences- sizeable losses in income and increase in the tension
and uncertainty in the economy (bearish forex market)
ndash GDP expected to shrink between 15-95
ndash Increase borrowing costs and sharp drop in equity and house prices
bull Consumer confidence index in negative figures
bull Sterling is also likely to depreciate further [in a Brexit scenario] perhaps sharply
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Bank of England cautioned there were increasing signs that uncertainty associated with the European Union referendum has begun to weigh on activity and could lead to a sharp fall in the value of the pound and to higher unemployment
CORRELATIONAL ANALYSIS
After doing the regression analysis on the price of 10Y UK Treasury bond index spot price and the Sterling Pound futures price the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0852402623
R Square 0726590231
Adjusted R Square 071470285
Standard Error 0008943103
Observations 25
Data source httpwwwinvestingcom
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
3 MONTH KIBOR
bull Contract Unit- PKR 1 Million
bull Price Quotation- 100-3MKIBOR
bull MPF- 1 basis point (001)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
926
928
93
932
934
936
938
94
3 month KIBOR
Total
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
KEROSENE
bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract
bull MPF- JPY 50Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
31000
32000
33000
34000
35000
36000
37000
38000
39000
Kerosene
Total
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
WHEAT
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- $1250 contract
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
4200
4300
4400
4500
4600
4700
4800
4900
5000
5100
5200
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
WHEAT FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots
bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks
bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian
bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons
bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production
ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516
on higher beginning stocks and imports
bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than
offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the
previous year
bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area
bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter
bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0551
R Square 0303
Adjusted R Square 0270
Standard Error 120231
Observations 23
After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound
bull MPF- ($600 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TRENDS
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
SOY BEAN FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports
and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May
bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years
bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes
bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said
bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed
bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 299033
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
SUGAR
bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs001kg
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
535
54
545
55
555
56
SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)
Series1
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
PRICE TREND
137
138
139
14
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
41
20
16
42
20
16
43
20
16
44
20
16
45
20
16
46
20
16
47
20
16
48
20
16
49
20
16
41
02
01
6
41
12
01
6
41
22
01
6
41
32
01
6
41
42
01
6
41
52
01
6
41
62
01
6
41
72
01
6
41
82
01
6
41
92
01
6
42
02
01
6
42
12
01
6
42
22
01
6
42
32
01
6
42
42
01
6
42
52
01
6
42
62
01
6
42
72
01
6
42
82
01
6
42
92
01
6
43
02
01
6
51
20
16
52
20
16
53
20
16
54
20
16
55
20
16
56
20
16
JUNE 2016 Pound Currency
Price
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Brexit- Britain eyeing to leave the European Union next monthndash Consequences- sizeable losses in income and increase in the tension
and uncertainty in the economy (bearish forex market)
ndash GDP expected to shrink between 15-95
ndash Increase borrowing costs and sharp drop in equity and house prices
bull Consumer confidence index in negative figures
bull Sterling is also likely to depreciate further [in a Brexit scenario] perhaps sharply
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Bank of England cautioned there were increasing signs that uncertainty associated with the European Union referendum has begun to weigh on activity and could lead to a sharp fall in the value of the pound and to higher unemployment
CORRELATIONAL ANALYSIS
After doing the regression analysis on the price of 10Y UK Treasury bond index spot price and the Sterling Pound futures price the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0852402623
R Square 0726590231
Adjusted R Square 071470285
Standard Error 0008943103
Observations 25
Data source httpwwwinvestingcom
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
3 MONTH KIBOR
bull Contract Unit- PKR 1 Million
bull Price Quotation- 100-3MKIBOR
bull MPF- 1 basis point (001)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
926
928
93
932
934
936
938
94
3 month KIBOR
Total
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
KEROSENE
bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract
bull MPF- JPY 50Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
31000
32000
33000
34000
35000
36000
37000
38000
39000
Kerosene
Total
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
WHEAT
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- $1250 contract
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
4200
4300
4400
4500
4600
4700
4800
4900
5000
5100
5200
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
WHEAT FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots
bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks
bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian
bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons
bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production
ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516
on higher beginning stocks and imports
bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than
offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the
previous year
bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area
bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter
bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0551
R Square 0303
Adjusted R Square 0270
Standard Error 120231
Observations 23
After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound
bull MPF- ($600 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TRENDS
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
SOY BEAN FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports
and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May
bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years
bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes
bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said
bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed
bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 299033
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
SUGAR
bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs001kg
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
535
54
545
55
555
56
SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)
Series1
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Brexit- Britain eyeing to leave the European Union next monthndash Consequences- sizeable losses in income and increase in the tension
and uncertainty in the economy (bearish forex market)
ndash GDP expected to shrink between 15-95
ndash Increase borrowing costs and sharp drop in equity and house prices
bull Consumer confidence index in negative figures
bull Sterling is also likely to depreciate further [in a Brexit scenario] perhaps sharply
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Bank of England cautioned there were increasing signs that uncertainty associated with the European Union referendum has begun to weigh on activity and could lead to a sharp fall in the value of the pound and to higher unemployment
CORRELATIONAL ANALYSIS
After doing the regression analysis on the price of 10Y UK Treasury bond index spot price and the Sterling Pound futures price the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0852402623
R Square 0726590231
Adjusted R Square 071470285
Standard Error 0008943103
Observations 25
Data source httpwwwinvestingcom
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
3 MONTH KIBOR
bull Contract Unit- PKR 1 Million
bull Price Quotation- 100-3MKIBOR
bull MPF- 1 basis point (001)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
926
928
93
932
934
936
938
94
3 month KIBOR
Total
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
KEROSENE
bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract
bull MPF- JPY 50Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
31000
32000
33000
34000
35000
36000
37000
38000
39000
Kerosene
Total
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
WHEAT
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- $1250 contract
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
4200
4300
4400
4500
4600
4700
4800
4900
5000
5100
5200
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
WHEAT FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots
bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks
bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian
bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons
bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production
ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516
on higher beginning stocks and imports
bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than
offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the
previous year
bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area
bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter
bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0551
R Square 0303
Adjusted R Square 0270
Standard Error 120231
Observations 23
After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound
bull MPF- ($600 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TRENDS
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
SOY BEAN FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports
and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May
bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years
bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes
bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said
bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed
bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 299033
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
SUGAR
bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs001kg
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
535
54
545
55
555
56
SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)
Series1
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Bank of England cautioned there were increasing signs that uncertainty associated with the European Union referendum has begun to weigh on activity and could lead to a sharp fall in the value of the pound and to higher unemployment
CORRELATIONAL ANALYSIS
After doing the regression analysis on the price of 10Y UK Treasury bond index spot price and the Sterling Pound futures price the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0852402623
R Square 0726590231
Adjusted R Square 071470285
Standard Error 0008943103
Observations 25
Data source httpwwwinvestingcom
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
3 MONTH KIBOR
bull Contract Unit- PKR 1 Million
bull Price Quotation- 100-3MKIBOR
bull MPF- 1 basis point (001)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
926
928
93
932
934
936
938
94
3 month KIBOR
Total
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
KEROSENE
bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract
bull MPF- JPY 50Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
31000
32000
33000
34000
35000
36000
37000
38000
39000
Kerosene
Total
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
WHEAT
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- $1250 contract
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
4200
4300
4400
4500
4600
4700
4800
4900
5000
5100
5200
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
WHEAT FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots
bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks
bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian
bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons
bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production
ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516
on higher beginning stocks and imports
bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than
offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the
previous year
bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area
bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter
bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0551
R Square 0303
Adjusted R Square 0270
Standard Error 120231
Observations 23
After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound
bull MPF- ($600 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TRENDS
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
SOY BEAN FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports
and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May
bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years
bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes
bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said
bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed
bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 299033
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
SUGAR
bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs001kg
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
535
54
545
55
555
56
SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)
Series1
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
CORRELATIONAL ANALYSIS
After doing the regression analysis on the price of 10Y UK Treasury bond index spot price and the Sterling Pound futures price the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0852402623
R Square 0726590231
Adjusted R Square 071470285
Standard Error 0008943103
Observations 25
Data source httpwwwinvestingcom
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
3 MONTH KIBOR
bull Contract Unit- PKR 1 Million
bull Price Quotation- 100-3MKIBOR
bull MPF- 1 basis point (001)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
926
928
93
932
934
936
938
94
3 month KIBOR
Total
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
KEROSENE
bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract
bull MPF- JPY 50Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
31000
32000
33000
34000
35000
36000
37000
38000
39000
Kerosene
Total
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
WHEAT
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- $1250 contract
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
4200
4300
4400
4500
4600
4700
4800
4900
5000
5100
5200
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
WHEAT FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots
bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks
bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian
bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons
bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production
ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516
on higher beginning stocks and imports
bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than
offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the
previous year
bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area
bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter
bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0551
R Square 0303
Adjusted R Square 0270
Standard Error 120231
Observations 23
After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound
bull MPF- ($600 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TRENDS
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
SOY BEAN FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports
and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May
bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years
bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes
bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said
bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed
bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 299033
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
SUGAR
bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs001kg
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
535
54
545
55
555
56
SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)
Series1
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
3 MONTH KIBOR
bull Contract Unit- PKR 1 Million
bull Price Quotation- 100-3MKIBOR
bull MPF- 1 basis point (001)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
926
928
93
932
934
936
938
94
3 month KIBOR
Total
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
KEROSENE
bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract
bull MPF- JPY 50Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
31000
32000
33000
34000
35000
36000
37000
38000
39000
Kerosene
Total
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
WHEAT
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- $1250 contract
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
4200
4300
4400
4500
4600
4700
4800
4900
5000
5100
5200
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
WHEAT FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots
bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks
bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian
bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons
bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production
ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516
on higher beginning stocks and imports
bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than
offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the
previous year
bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area
bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter
bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0551
R Square 0303
Adjusted R Square 0270
Standard Error 120231
Observations 23
After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound
bull MPF- ($600 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TRENDS
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
SOY BEAN FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports
and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May
bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years
bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes
bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said
bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed
bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 299033
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
SUGAR
bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs001kg
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
535
54
545
55
555
56
SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)
Series1
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
3 MONTH KIBOR
bull Contract Unit- PKR 1 Million
bull Price Quotation- 100-3MKIBOR
bull MPF- 1 basis point (001)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
926
928
93
932
934
936
938
94
3 month KIBOR
Total
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
KEROSENE
bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract
bull MPF- JPY 50Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
31000
32000
33000
34000
35000
36000
37000
38000
39000
Kerosene
Total
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
WHEAT
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- $1250 contract
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
4200
4300
4400
4500
4600
4700
4800
4900
5000
5100
5200
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
WHEAT FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots
bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks
bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian
bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons
bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production
ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516
on higher beginning stocks and imports
bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than
offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the
previous year
bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area
bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter
bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0551
R Square 0303
Adjusted R Square 0270
Standard Error 120231
Observations 23
After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound
bull MPF- ($600 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TRENDS
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
SOY BEAN FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports
and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May
bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years
bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes
bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said
bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed
bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 299033
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
SUGAR
bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs001kg
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
535
54
545
55
555
56
SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)
Series1
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
926
928
93
932
934
936
938
94
3 month KIBOR
Total
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
KEROSENE
bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract
bull MPF- JPY 50Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
31000
32000
33000
34000
35000
36000
37000
38000
39000
Kerosene
Total
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
WHEAT
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- $1250 contract
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
4200
4300
4400
4500
4600
4700
4800
4900
5000
5100
5200
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
WHEAT FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots
bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks
bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian
bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons
bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production
ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516
on higher beginning stocks and imports
bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than
offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the
previous year
bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area
bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter
bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0551
R Square 0303
Adjusted R Square 0270
Standard Error 120231
Observations 23
After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound
bull MPF- ($600 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TRENDS
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
SOY BEAN FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports
and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May
bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years
bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes
bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said
bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed
bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 299033
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
SUGAR
bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs001kg
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
535
54
545
55
555
56
SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)
Series1
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
KEROSENE
bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract
bull MPF- JPY 50Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
31000
32000
33000
34000
35000
36000
37000
38000
39000
Kerosene
Total
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
WHEAT
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- $1250 contract
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
4200
4300
4400
4500
4600
4700
4800
4900
5000
5100
5200
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
WHEAT FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots
bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks
bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian
bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons
bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production
ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516
on higher beginning stocks and imports
bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than
offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the
previous year
bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area
bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter
bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0551
R Square 0303
Adjusted R Square 0270
Standard Error 120231
Observations 23
After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound
bull MPF- ($600 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TRENDS
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
SOY BEAN FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports
and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May
bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years
bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes
bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said
bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed
bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 299033
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
SUGAR
bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs001kg
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
535
54
545
55
555
56
SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)
Series1
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
KEROSENE
bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract
bull MPF- JPY 50Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
31000
32000
33000
34000
35000
36000
37000
38000
39000
Kerosene
Total
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
WHEAT
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- $1250 contract
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
4200
4300
4400
4500
4600
4700
4800
4900
5000
5100
5200
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
WHEAT FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots
bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks
bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian
bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons
bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production
ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516
on higher beginning stocks and imports
bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than
offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the
previous year
bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area
bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter
bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0551
R Square 0303
Adjusted R Square 0270
Standard Error 120231
Observations 23
After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound
bull MPF- ($600 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TRENDS
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
SOY BEAN FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports
and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May
bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years
bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes
bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said
bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed
bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 299033
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
SUGAR
bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs001kg
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
535
54
545
55
555
56
SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)
Series1
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
PRICE TREND
31000
32000
33000
34000
35000
36000
37000
38000
39000
Kerosene
Total
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
WHEAT
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- $1250 contract
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
4200
4300
4400
4500
4600
4700
4800
4900
5000
5100
5200
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
WHEAT FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots
bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks
bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian
bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons
bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production
ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516
on higher beginning stocks and imports
bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than
offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the
previous year
bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area
bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter
bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0551
R Square 0303
Adjusted R Square 0270
Standard Error 120231
Observations 23
After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound
bull MPF- ($600 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TRENDS
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
SOY BEAN FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports
and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May
bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years
bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes
bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said
bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed
bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 299033
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
SUGAR
bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs001kg
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
535
54
545
55
555
56
SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)
Series1
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
WHEAT
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- $1250 contract
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
4200
4300
4400
4500
4600
4700
4800
4900
5000
5100
5200
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
WHEAT FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots
bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks
bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian
bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons
bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production
ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516
on higher beginning stocks and imports
bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than
offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the
previous year
bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area
bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter
bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0551
R Square 0303
Adjusted R Square 0270
Standard Error 120231
Observations 23
After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound
bull MPF- ($600 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TRENDS
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
SOY BEAN FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports
and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May
bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years
bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes
bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said
bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed
bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 299033
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
SUGAR
bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs001kg
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
535
54
545
55
555
56
SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)
Series1
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
PRICE TREND
4200
4300
4400
4500
4600
4700
4800
4900
5000
5100
5200
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
WHEAT FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots
bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks
bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian
bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons
bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production
ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516
on higher beginning stocks and imports
bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than
offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the
previous year
bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area
bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter
bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0551
R Square 0303
Adjusted R Square 0270
Standard Error 120231
Observations 23
After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound
bull MPF- ($600 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TRENDS
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
SOY BEAN FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports
and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May
bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years
bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes
bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said
bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed
bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 299033
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
SUGAR
bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs001kg
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
535
54
545
55
555
56
SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)
Series1
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots
bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks
bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian
bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons
bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production
ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516
on higher beginning stocks and imports
bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than
offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the
previous year
bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area
bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter
bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0551
R Square 0303
Adjusted R Square 0270
Standard Error 120231
Observations 23
After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound
bull MPF- ($600 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TRENDS
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
SOY BEAN FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports
and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May
bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years
bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes
bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said
bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed
bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 299033
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
SUGAR
bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs001kg
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
535
54
545
55
555
56
SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)
Series1
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516
on higher beginning stocks and imports
bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than
offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the
previous year
bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area
bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter
bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0551
R Square 0303
Adjusted R Square 0270
Standard Error 120231
Observations 23
After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound
bull MPF- ($600 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TRENDS
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
SOY BEAN FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports
and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May
bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years
bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes
bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said
bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed
bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 299033
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
SUGAR
bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs001kg
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
535
54
545
55
555
56
SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)
Series1
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0551
R Square 0303
Adjusted R Square 0270
Standard Error 120231
Observations 23
After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound
bull MPF- ($600 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TRENDS
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
SOY BEAN FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports
and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May
bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years
bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes
bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said
bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed
bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 299033
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
SUGAR
bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs001kg
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
535
54
545
55
555
56
SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)
Series1
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound
bull MPF- ($600 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TRENDS
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
SOY BEAN FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports
and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May
bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years
bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes
bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said
bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed
bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 299033
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
SUGAR
bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs001kg
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
535
54
545
55
555
56
SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)
Series1
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
PRICE TRENDS
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
SOY BEAN FUTURES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports
and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May
bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years
bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes
bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said
bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed
bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 299033
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
SUGAR
bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs001kg
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
535
54
545
55
555
56
SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)
Series1
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports
and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May
bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years
bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes
bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said
bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed
bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 299033
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
SUGAR
bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs001kg
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
535
54
545
55
555
56
SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)
Series1
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes
bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said
bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed
bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 299033
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
SUGAR
bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs001kg
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
535
54
545
55
555
56
SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)
Series1
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 299033
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
SUGAR
bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs001kg
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
535
54
545
55
555
56
SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)
Series1
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
SUGAR
bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs001kg
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
535
54
545
55
555
56
SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)
Series1
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
SUGAR
bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs001kg
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
535
54
545
55
555
56
SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)
Series1
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
535
54
545
55
555
56
SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)
Series1
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
PLATINUM
bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
3400
3450
3500
3550
3600
3650
3700
Platinum
Total
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels
bull MPF- $001per barrel
bull Settlement Method-Deliverable
bull Tick value is 10
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
PRIZE TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1-A
pr
2-A
pr
3-A
pr
4-A
pr
5-A
pr
6-A
pr
7-A
pr
8-A
pr
9-A
pr
10
-Ap
r
11
-Ap
r
12
-Ap
r
13
-Ap
r
14
-Ap
r
15
-Ap
r
16
-Ap
r
17
-Ap
r
18
-Ap
r
19
-Ap
r
20
-Ap
r
21
-Ap
r
22
-Ap
r
23
-Ap
r
24
-Ap
r
25
-Ap
r
26
-Ap
r
27
-Ap
r
28
-Ap
r
29
-Ap
r
30
-Ap
r
1-M
ay
2-M
ay
3-M
ay
4-M
ay
5-M
ay
6-M
ay
Crude oil
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations
bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time
bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models
bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high
bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week
bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis
bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0685732771
R Square 0470229433
Adjusted R Square 0445002263
Standard Error 1839060966
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
CORN
bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)
bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel
bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)
bull Settlement method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
PRICE TREND
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
SE
TT
LE
D P
RIC
E
DATE
CORN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil
bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030
bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have
hopes for a turn to the upside
bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses
bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres
bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
CONT
bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres
bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0550581242
R Square 0303139704
Adjusted R Square 0269955881
Standard Error 1138968208
Observations 23
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
CRUDE OIL
bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels
bull MPF- $001barrel
bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
RUBBER
bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract
bull MPF- JPY 500Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
Rubber
Total
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
ALUMINUM
bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
PRICE TREND
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1-A
pr-
16
2-A
pr-
16
3-A
pr-
16
4-A
pr-
16
5-A
pr-
16
6-A
pr-
16
7-A
pr-
16
8-A
pr-
16
9-A
pr-
16
10
-Ap
r-1
6
11
-Ap
r-1
6
12
-Ap
r-1
6
13
-Ap
r-1
6
14
-Ap
r-1
6
15
-Ap
r-1
6
16
-Ap
r-1
6
17
-Ap
r-1
6
18
-Ap
r-1
6
19
-Ap
r-1
6
20
-Ap
r-1
6
21
-Ap
r-1
6
22
-Ap
r-1
6
23
-Ap
r-1
6
24
-Ap
r-1
6
25
-Ap
r-1
6
26
-Ap
r-1
6
27
-Ap
r-1
6
28
-Ap
r-1
6
29
-Ap
r-1
6
30
-Ap
r-1
6
1-M
ay-1
6
2-M
ay-1
6
3-M
ay-1
6
4-M
ay-1
6
5-M
ay-1
6
6-M
ay-1
6
Aluminium
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health
bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers
bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution
Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact
Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300
Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800
Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300
Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400
2013 2016 Percentage Change
Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58
Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2
SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8
Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14
Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6
Total 156744 160888 uarr 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Globex Volume Units
Globex Volume Units
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0707248209
R Square 050020003
Adjusted R Square 0479375031
Standard Error 1811328792
Observations 26
After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
MILK
bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)
bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)
bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)
bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
PRIZE TREND
115
12
125
13
135
14
145
Ax
is T
itle
SETTLED PRICE
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically
bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US
bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets
bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo
bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0779
R Square 0608
Adjusted R Square 0591
Standard Error 253433
Observations 26
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
RICE
bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons
bull MPF- Rs 1KG
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SE
TT
LE
ME
NT
PR
ICE
DATE
CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
SOY BEAN
bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg
bull MPF- JPY 250Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
45000
45200
45400
45600
45800
46000
46200
46400
46600
Soy Bean
Total
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
COPPER
bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds
bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound
bull Settlement Method- Deliverable
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
PRICE TREND
195
2
205
21
215
22
225
23
Copper
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011
bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets
bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation
bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state
bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF
bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0533034524
R Square 0284125803
Adjusted R Square 0250036556
Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
SILVER
Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces
Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce
MPF- $0001 per troy ounce
Settlement Method-Deliverable
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
PRICE TREND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets
bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general
bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future
bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 077398989
R Square 059906035
Adjusted R Square 0581628192
Standard Error 0602450019
Observations 25
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
COTTON
bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds
bull MPF- $05Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwpmexcompk
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May
SETTLED PRICE
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
AZUKI (RED BEAN)
bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)
bull MPF- JPY 800Contract
bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
PRICE TREND
Data source httpwwwtocomorjp
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
Azuki (Red Bean)
Total
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp
bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm
bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg
bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices
bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm
bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28
bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d
bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879
bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880
bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu
bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
REFERENCES
bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml
bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
INFLATION RATE
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK
1020000
1025000
1030000
1035000
1040000
1045000
1050000
1055000
1060000
1065000
Industrial production index