effect of price fluction of money market instruments on commodity futures prices

92
Group # 1 ECONOMIC STATUS AND IMPACTS ON FUTURES PRICES

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Page 1: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

Group 1

ECONOMIC STATUS AND IMPACTS ON FUTURES PRICES

OVERVIEW

bull CMEndash Contract information- (JuneJuly 2016)

ndash Data representation- (1st April-6th May)

ndash Economic Analysis

ndash Statistical Inference- (Regression Analysis)

bull PMEXndash Contract information- (JuneJuly 2016)

ndash Data representation- (1st April-6th May)

bull TOCOMndash Contract information- (JuneJuly 2016)

ndash Data representation- (1st April-28th April)

CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE

OVERVIEW

Commodity future contracts to be analyzed

1 Wheat 7 Corn

2 Soy Bean 8 Crude Oil

3 Silver 9 SampP 500

4 Copper 10 Pound Sterling

5 Milk

6 Aluminum

SampP 500

bull Contract Unit- $250 x SampP 500 Index

bull Minimum price fluctuation 005 index points=$1250

bull Settlement Method Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

2120

41

20

16

42

20

16

43

20

16

44

20

16

45

20

16

46

20

16

47

20

16

48

20

16

49

20

16

41

02

01

6

41

12

01

6

41

22

01

6

41

32

01

6

41

42

01

6

41

52

01

6

41

62

01

6

41

72

01

6

41

82

01

6

41

92

01

6

42

02

01

6

42

12

01

6

42

22

01

6

42

32

01

6

42

42

01

6

42

52

01

6

42

62

01

6

42

72

01

6

42

82

01

6

42

92

01

6

43

02

01

6

51

20

16

52

20

16

53

20

16

54

20

16

55

20

16

56

20

16

JUNE 2016 SampP 500 Index Price

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull One of the reason for the declining SampP 500 index is the reduction of output in the retail and manufacturing sector (reduction in global demand)

bull US GDP growth forecast in the 1Q 2016 is 05 compared to 14 in the 4Q 2015ndash Reason- Decline in the inventories (-05)

bull Index for gross domestic purchases increased 03 in 1Q 2016 compared with 04 in 4Q 2015

bull Disposable personal income increased $1065 billion or 32 percent in the first quarter compared with an increase of $890 billion or 27 percent in the fourth

CORRELATION ANALYSIS

bull Historically there has been 40 correlation between the SampP 500 index and the Barclays High Yield Bonds Index

bull Data Source wwwfinanceyahoocom

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0686605

R Square 0471427

Adjusted R Square 0449403

Standard Error 143905

Observations 26

BRITISH POUNDS

bull Contract Unit- 62500 British pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$0001 per British pound increments ($625contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

137

138

139

14

141

142

143

144

145

146

147

148

41

20

16

42

20

16

43

20

16

44

20

16

45

20

16

46

20

16

47

20

16

48

20

16

49

20

16

41

02

01

6

41

12

01

6

41

22

01

6

41

32

01

6

41

42

01

6

41

52

01

6

41

62

01

6

41

72

01

6

41

82

01

6

41

92

01

6

42

02

01

6

42

12

01

6

42

22

01

6

42

32

01

6

42

42

01

6

42

52

01

6

42

62

01

6

42

72

01

6

42

82

01

6

42

92

01

6

43

02

01

6

51

20

16

52

20

16

53

20

16

54

20

16

55

20

16

56

20

16

JUNE 2016 Pound Currency

Price

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Brexit- Britain eyeing to leave the European Union next monthndash Consequences- sizeable losses in income and increase in the tension

and uncertainty in the economy (bearish forex market)

ndash GDP expected to shrink between 15-95

ndash Increase borrowing costs and sharp drop in equity and house prices

bull Consumer confidence index in negative figures

bull Sterling is also likely to depreciate further [in a Brexit scenario] perhaps sharply

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Bank of England cautioned there were increasing signs that uncertainty associated with the European Union referendum has begun to weigh on activity and could lead to a sharp fall in the value of the pound and to higher unemployment

CORRELATIONAL ANALYSIS

After doing the regression analysis on the price of 10Y UK Treasury bond index spot price and the Sterling Pound futures price the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0852402623

R Square 0726590231

Adjusted R Square 071470285

Standard Error 0008943103

Observations 25

Data source httpwwwinvestingcom

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

3 MONTH KIBOR

bull Contract Unit- PKR 1 Million

bull Price Quotation- 100-3MKIBOR

bull MPF- 1 basis point (001)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

926

928

93

932

934

936

938

94

3 month KIBOR

Total

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

KEROSENE

bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract

bull MPF- JPY 50Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

31000

32000

33000

34000

35000

36000

37000

38000

39000

Kerosene

Total

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

WHEAT

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- $1250 contract

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

4200

4300

4400

4500

4600

4700

4800

4900

5000

5100

5200

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

WHEAT FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots

bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks

bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian

bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons

bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production

ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516

on higher beginning stocks and imports

bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than

offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the

previous year

bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area

bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter

bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0551

R Square 0303

Adjusted R Square 0270

Standard Error 120231

Observations 23

After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound

bull MPF- ($600 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TRENDS

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

SOY BEAN FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports

and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May

bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years

bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes

bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said

bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed

bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 299033

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

SUGAR

bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs001kg

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

535

54

545

55

555

56

SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)

Series1

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 2: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

OVERVIEW

bull CMEndash Contract information- (JuneJuly 2016)

ndash Data representation- (1st April-6th May)

ndash Economic Analysis

ndash Statistical Inference- (Regression Analysis)

bull PMEXndash Contract information- (JuneJuly 2016)

ndash Data representation- (1st April-6th May)

bull TOCOMndash Contract information- (JuneJuly 2016)

ndash Data representation- (1st April-28th April)

CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE

OVERVIEW

Commodity future contracts to be analyzed

1 Wheat 7 Corn

2 Soy Bean 8 Crude Oil

3 Silver 9 SampP 500

4 Copper 10 Pound Sterling

5 Milk

6 Aluminum

SampP 500

bull Contract Unit- $250 x SampP 500 Index

bull Minimum price fluctuation 005 index points=$1250

bull Settlement Method Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

2120

41

20

16

42

20

16

43

20

16

44

20

16

45

20

16

46

20

16

47

20

16

48

20

16

49

20

16

41

02

01

6

41

12

01

6

41

22

01

6

41

32

01

6

41

42

01

6

41

52

01

6

41

62

01

6

41

72

01

6

41

82

01

6

41

92

01

6

42

02

01

6

42

12

01

6

42

22

01

6

42

32

01

6

42

42

01

6

42

52

01

6

42

62

01

6

42

72

01

6

42

82

01

6

42

92

01

6

43

02

01

6

51

20

16

52

20

16

53

20

16

54

20

16

55

20

16

56

20

16

JUNE 2016 SampP 500 Index Price

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull One of the reason for the declining SampP 500 index is the reduction of output in the retail and manufacturing sector (reduction in global demand)

bull US GDP growth forecast in the 1Q 2016 is 05 compared to 14 in the 4Q 2015ndash Reason- Decline in the inventories (-05)

bull Index for gross domestic purchases increased 03 in 1Q 2016 compared with 04 in 4Q 2015

bull Disposable personal income increased $1065 billion or 32 percent in the first quarter compared with an increase of $890 billion or 27 percent in the fourth

CORRELATION ANALYSIS

bull Historically there has been 40 correlation between the SampP 500 index and the Barclays High Yield Bonds Index

bull Data Source wwwfinanceyahoocom

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0686605

R Square 0471427

Adjusted R Square 0449403

Standard Error 143905

Observations 26

BRITISH POUNDS

bull Contract Unit- 62500 British pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$0001 per British pound increments ($625contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

137

138

139

14

141

142

143

144

145

146

147

148

41

20

16

42

20

16

43

20

16

44

20

16

45

20

16

46

20

16

47

20

16

48

20

16

49

20

16

41

02

01

6

41

12

01

6

41

22

01

6

41

32

01

6

41

42

01

6

41

52

01

6

41

62

01

6

41

72

01

6

41

82

01

6

41

92

01

6

42

02

01

6

42

12

01

6

42

22

01

6

42

32

01

6

42

42

01

6

42

52

01

6

42

62

01

6

42

72

01

6

42

82

01

6

42

92

01

6

43

02

01

6

51

20

16

52

20

16

53

20

16

54

20

16

55

20

16

56

20

16

JUNE 2016 Pound Currency

Price

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Brexit- Britain eyeing to leave the European Union next monthndash Consequences- sizeable losses in income and increase in the tension

and uncertainty in the economy (bearish forex market)

ndash GDP expected to shrink between 15-95

ndash Increase borrowing costs and sharp drop in equity and house prices

bull Consumer confidence index in negative figures

bull Sterling is also likely to depreciate further [in a Brexit scenario] perhaps sharply

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Bank of England cautioned there were increasing signs that uncertainty associated with the European Union referendum has begun to weigh on activity and could lead to a sharp fall in the value of the pound and to higher unemployment

CORRELATIONAL ANALYSIS

After doing the regression analysis on the price of 10Y UK Treasury bond index spot price and the Sterling Pound futures price the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0852402623

R Square 0726590231

Adjusted R Square 071470285

Standard Error 0008943103

Observations 25

Data source httpwwwinvestingcom

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

3 MONTH KIBOR

bull Contract Unit- PKR 1 Million

bull Price Quotation- 100-3MKIBOR

bull MPF- 1 basis point (001)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

926

928

93

932

934

936

938

94

3 month KIBOR

Total

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

KEROSENE

bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract

bull MPF- JPY 50Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

31000

32000

33000

34000

35000

36000

37000

38000

39000

Kerosene

Total

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

WHEAT

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- $1250 contract

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

4200

4300

4400

4500

4600

4700

4800

4900

5000

5100

5200

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

WHEAT FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots

bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks

bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian

bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons

bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production

ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516

on higher beginning stocks and imports

bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than

offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the

previous year

bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area

bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter

bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0551

R Square 0303

Adjusted R Square 0270

Standard Error 120231

Observations 23

After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound

bull MPF- ($600 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TRENDS

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

SOY BEAN FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports

and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May

bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years

bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes

bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said

bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed

bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 299033

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

SUGAR

bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs001kg

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

535

54

545

55

555

56

SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)

Series1

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 3: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE

OVERVIEW

Commodity future contracts to be analyzed

1 Wheat 7 Corn

2 Soy Bean 8 Crude Oil

3 Silver 9 SampP 500

4 Copper 10 Pound Sterling

5 Milk

6 Aluminum

SampP 500

bull Contract Unit- $250 x SampP 500 Index

bull Minimum price fluctuation 005 index points=$1250

bull Settlement Method Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

2120

41

20

16

42

20

16

43

20

16

44

20

16

45

20

16

46

20

16

47

20

16

48

20

16

49

20

16

41

02

01

6

41

12

01

6

41

22

01

6

41

32

01

6

41

42

01

6

41

52

01

6

41

62

01

6

41

72

01

6

41

82

01

6

41

92

01

6

42

02

01

6

42

12

01

6

42

22

01

6

42

32

01

6

42

42

01

6

42

52

01

6

42

62

01

6

42

72

01

6

42

82

01

6

42

92

01

6

43

02

01

6

51

20

16

52

20

16

53

20

16

54

20

16

55

20

16

56

20

16

JUNE 2016 SampP 500 Index Price

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull One of the reason for the declining SampP 500 index is the reduction of output in the retail and manufacturing sector (reduction in global demand)

bull US GDP growth forecast in the 1Q 2016 is 05 compared to 14 in the 4Q 2015ndash Reason- Decline in the inventories (-05)

bull Index for gross domestic purchases increased 03 in 1Q 2016 compared with 04 in 4Q 2015

bull Disposable personal income increased $1065 billion or 32 percent in the first quarter compared with an increase of $890 billion or 27 percent in the fourth

CORRELATION ANALYSIS

bull Historically there has been 40 correlation between the SampP 500 index and the Barclays High Yield Bonds Index

bull Data Source wwwfinanceyahoocom

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0686605

R Square 0471427

Adjusted R Square 0449403

Standard Error 143905

Observations 26

BRITISH POUNDS

bull Contract Unit- 62500 British pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$0001 per British pound increments ($625contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

137

138

139

14

141

142

143

144

145

146

147

148

41

20

16

42

20

16

43

20

16

44

20

16

45

20

16

46

20

16

47

20

16

48

20

16

49

20

16

41

02

01

6

41

12

01

6

41

22

01

6

41

32

01

6

41

42

01

6

41

52

01

6

41

62

01

6

41

72

01

6

41

82

01

6

41

92

01

6

42

02

01

6

42

12

01

6

42

22

01

6

42

32

01

6

42

42

01

6

42

52

01

6

42

62

01

6

42

72

01

6

42

82

01

6

42

92

01

6

43

02

01

6

51

20

16

52

20

16

53

20

16

54

20

16

55

20

16

56

20

16

JUNE 2016 Pound Currency

Price

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Brexit- Britain eyeing to leave the European Union next monthndash Consequences- sizeable losses in income and increase in the tension

and uncertainty in the economy (bearish forex market)

ndash GDP expected to shrink between 15-95

ndash Increase borrowing costs and sharp drop in equity and house prices

bull Consumer confidence index in negative figures

bull Sterling is also likely to depreciate further [in a Brexit scenario] perhaps sharply

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Bank of England cautioned there were increasing signs that uncertainty associated with the European Union referendum has begun to weigh on activity and could lead to a sharp fall in the value of the pound and to higher unemployment

CORRELATIONAL ANALYSIS

After doing the regression analysis on the price of 10Y UK Treasury bond index spot price and the Sterling Pound futures price the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0852402623

R Square 0726590231

Adjusted R Square 071470285

Standard Error 0008943103

Observations 25

Data source httpwwwinvestingcom

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

3 MONTH KIBOR

bull Contract Unit- PKR 1 Million

bull Price Quotation- 100-3MKIBOR

bull MPF- 1 basis point (001)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

926

928

93

932

934

936

938

94

3 month KIBOR

Total

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

KEROSENE

bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract

bull MPF- JPY 50Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

31000

32000

33000

34000

35000

36000

37000

38000

39000

Kerosene

Total

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

WHEAT

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- $1250 contract

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

4200

4300

4400

4500

4600

4700

4800

4900

5000

5100

5200

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

WHEAT FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots

bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks

bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian

bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons

bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production

ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516

on higher beginning stocks and imports

bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than

offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the

previous year

bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area

bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter

bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0551

R Square 0303

Adjusted R Square 0270

Standard Error 120231

Observations 23

After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound

bull MPF- ($600 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TRENDS

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

SOY BEAN FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports

and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May

bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years

bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes

bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said

bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed

bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 299033

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

SUGAR

bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs001kg

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

535

54

545

55

555

56

SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)

Series1

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 4: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

OVERVIEW

Commodity future contracts to be analyzed

1 Wheat 7 Corn

2 Soy Bean 8 Crude Oil

3 Silver 9 SampP 500

4 Copper 10 Pound Sterling

5 Milk

6 Aluminum

SampP 500

bull Contract Unit- $250 x SampP 500 Index

bull Minimum price fluctuation 005 index points=$1250

bull Settlement Method Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

2120

41

20

16

42

20

16

43

20

16

44

20

16

45

20

16

46

20

16

47

20

16

48

20

16

49

20

16

41

02

01

6

41

12

01

6

41

22

01

6

41

32

01

6

41

42

01

6

41

52

01

6

41

62

01

6

41

72

01

6

41

82

01

6

41

92

01

6

42

02

01

6

42

12

01

6

42

22

01

6

42

32

01

6

42

42

01

6

42

52

01

6

42

62

01

6

42

72

01

6

42

82

01

6

42

92

01

6

43

02

01

6

51

20

16

52

20

16

53

20

16

54

20

16

55

20

16

56

20

16

JUNE 2016 SampP 500 Index Price

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull One of the reason for the declining SampP 500 index is the reduction of output in the retail and manufacturing sector (reduction in global demand)

bull US GDP growth forecast in the 1Q 2016 is 05 compared to 14 in the 4Q 2015ndash Reason- Decline in the inventories (-05)

bull Index for gross domestic purchases increased 03 in 1Q 2016 compared with 04 in 4Q 2015

bull Disposable personal income increased $1065 billion or 32 percent in the first quarter compared with an increase of $890 billion or 27 percent in the fourth

CORRELATION ANALYSIS

bull Historically there has been 40 correlation between the SampP 500 index and the Barclays High Yield Bonds Index

bull Data Source wwwfinanceyahoocom

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0686605

R Square 0471427

Adjusted R Square 0449403

Standard Error 143905

Observations 26

BRITISH POUNDS

bull Contract Unit- 62500 British pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$0001 per British pound increments ($625contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

137

138

139

14

141

142

143

144

145

146

147

148

41

20

16

42

20

16

43

20

16

44

20

16

45

20

16

46

20

16

47

20

16

48

20

16

49

20

16

41

02

01

6

41

12

01

6

41

22

01

6

41

32

01

6

41

42

01

6

41

52

01

6

41

62

01

6

41

72

01

6

41

82

01

6

41

92

01

6

42

02

01

6

42

12

01

6

42

22

01

6

42

32

01

6

42

42

01

6

42

52

01

6

42

62

01

6

42

72

01

6

42

82

01

6

42

92

01

6

43

02

01

6

51

20

16

52

20

16

53

20

16

54

20

16

55

20

16

56

20

16

JUNE 2016 Pound Currency

Price

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Brexit- Britain eyeing to leave the European Union next monthndash Consequences- sizeable losses in income and increase in the tension

and uncertainty in the economy (bearish forex market)

ndash GDP expected to shrink between 15-95

ndash Increase borrowing costs and sharp drop in equity and house prices

bull Consumer confidence index in negative figures

bull Sterling is also likely to depreciate further [in a Brexit scenario] perhaps sharply

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Bank of England cautioned there were increasing signs that uncertainty associated with the European Union referendum has begun to weigh on activity and could lead to a sharp fall in the value of the pound and to higher unemployment

CORRELATIONAL ANALYSIS

After doing the regression analysis on the price of 10Y UK Treasury bond index spot price and the Sterling Pound futures price the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0852402623

R Square 0726590231

Adjusted R Square 071470285

Standard Error 0008943103

Observations 25

Data source httpwwwinvestingcom

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

3 MONTH KIBOR

bull Contract Unit- PKR 1 Million

bull Price Quotation- 100-3MKIBOR

bull MPF- 1 basis point (001)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

926

928

93

932

934

936

938

94

3 month KIBOR

Total

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

KEROSENE

bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract

bull MPF- JPY 50Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

31000

32000

33000

34000

35000

36000

37000

38000

39000

Kerosene

Total

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

WHEAT

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- $1250 contract

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

4200

4300

4400

4500

4600

4700

4800

4900

5000

5100

5200

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

WHEAT FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots

bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks

bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian

bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons

bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production

ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516

on higher beginning stocks and imports

bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than

offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the

previous year

bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area

bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter

bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0551

R Square 0303

Adjusted R Square 0270

Standard Error 120231

Observations 23

After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound

bull MPF- ($600 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TRENDS

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

SOY BEAN FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports

and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May

bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years

bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes

bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said

bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed

bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 299033

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

SUGAR

bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs001kg

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

535

54

545

55

555

56

SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)

Series1

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 5: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

SampP 500

bull Contract Unit- $250 x SampP 500 Index

bull Minimum price fluctuation 005 index points=$1250

bull Settlement Method Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

2120

41

20

16

42

20

16

43

20

16

44

20

16

45

20

16

46

20

16

47

20

16

48

20

16

49

20

16

41

02

01

6

41

12

01

6

41

22

01

6

41

32

01

6

41

42

01

6

41

52

01

6

41

62

01

6

41

72

01

6

41

82

01

6

41

92

01

6

42

02

01

6

42

12

01

6

42

22

01

6

42

32

01

6

42

42

01

6

42

52

01

6

42

62

01

6

42

72

01

6

42

82

01

6

42

92

01

6

43

02

01

6

51

20

16

52

20

16

53

20

16

54

20

16

55

20

16

56

20

16

JUNE 2016 SampP 500 Index Price

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull One of the reason for the declining SampP 500 index is the reduction of output in the retail and manufacturing sector (reduction in global demand)

bull US GDP growth forecast in the 1Q 2016 is 05 compared to 14 in the 4Q 2015ndash Reason- Decline in the inventories (-05)

bull Index for gross domestic purchases increased 03 in 1Q 2016 compared with 04 in 4Q 2015

bull Disposable personal income increased $1065 billion or 32 percent in the first quarter compared with an increase of $890 billion or 27 percent in the fourth

CORRELATION ANALYSIS

bull Historically there has been 40 correlation between the SampP 500 index and the Barclays High Yield Bonds Index

bull Data Source wwwfinanceyahoocom

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0686605

R Square 0471427

Adjusted R Square 0449403

Standard Error 143905

Observations 26

BRITISH POUNDS

bull Contract Unit- 62500 British pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$0001 per British pound increments ($625contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

137

138

139

14

141

142

143

144

145

146

147

148

41

20

16

42

20

16

43

20

16

44

20

16

45

20

16

46

20

16

47

20

16

48

20

16

49

20

16

41

02

01

6

41

12

01

6

41

22

01

6

41

32

01

6

41

42

01

6

41

52

01

6

41

62

01

6

41

72

01

6

41

82

01

6

41

92

01

6

42

02

01

6

42

12

01

6

42

22

01

6

42

32

01

6

42

42

01

6

42

52

01

6

42

62

01

6

42

72

01

6

42

82

01

6

42

92

01

6

43

02

01

6

51

20

16

52

20

16

53

20

16

54

20

16

55

20

16

56

20

16

JUNE 2016 Pound Currency

Price

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Brexit- Britain eyeing to leave the European Union next monthndash Consequences- sizeable losses in income and increase in the tension

and uncertainty in the economy (bearish forex market)

ndash GDP expected to shrink between 15-95

ndash Increase borrowing costs and sharp drop in equity and house prices

bull Consumer confidence index in negative figures

bull Sterling is also likely to depreciate further [in a Brexit scenario] perhaps sharply

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Bank of England cautioned there were increasing signs that uncertainty associated with the European Union referendum has begun to weigh on activity and could lead to a sharp fall in the value of the pound and to higher unemployment

CORRELATIONAL ANALYSIS

After doing the regression analysis on the price of 10Y UK Treasury bond index spot price and the Sterling Pound futures price the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0852402623

R Square 0726590231

Adjusted R Square 071470285

Standard Error 0008943103

Observations 25

Data source httpwwwinvestingcom

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

3 MONTH KIBOR

bull Contract Unit- PKR 1 Million

bull Price Quotation- 100-3MKIBOR

bull MPF- 1 basis point (001)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

926

928

93

932

934

936

938

94

3 month KIBOR

Total

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

KEROSENE

bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract

bull MPF- JPY 50Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

31000

32000

33000

34000

35000

36000

37000

38000

39000

Kerosene

Total

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

WHEAT

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- $1250 contract

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

4200

4300

4400

4500

4600

4700

4800

4900

5000

5100

5200

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

WHEAT FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots

bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks

bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian

bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons

bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production

ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516

on higher beginning stocks and imports

bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than

offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the

previous year

bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area

bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter

bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0551

R Square 0303

Adjusted R Square 0270

Standard Error 120231

Observations 23

After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound

bull MPF- ($600 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TRENDS

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

SOY BEAN FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports

and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May

bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years

bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes

bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said

bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed

bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 299033

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

SUGAR

bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs001kg

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

535

54

545

55

555

56

SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)

Series1

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 6: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

PRICE TREND

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

2120

41

20

16

42

20

16

43

20

16

44

20

16

45

20

16

46

20

16

47

20

16

48

20

16

49

20

16

41

02

01

6

41

12

01

6

41

22

01

6

41

32

01

6

41

42

01

6

41

52

01

6

41

62

01

6

41

72

01

6

41

82

01

6

41

92

01

6

42

02

01

6

42

12

01

6

42

22

01

6

42

32

01

6

42

42

01

6

42

52

01

6

42

62

01

6

42

72

01

6

42

82

01

6

42

92

01

6

43

02

01

6

51

20

16

52

20

16

53

20

16

54

20

16

55

20

16

56

20

16

JUNE 2016 SampP 500 Index Price

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull One of the reason for the declining SampP 500 index is the reduction of output in the retail and manufacturing sector (reduction in global demand)

bull US GDP growth forecast in the 1Q 2016 is 05 compared to 14 in the 4Q 2015ndash Reason- Decline in the inventories (-05)

bull Index for gross domestic purchases increased 03 in 1Q 2016 compared with 04 in 4Q 2015

bull Disposable personal income increased $1065 billion or 32 percent in the first quarter compared with an increase of $890 billion or 27 percent in the fourth

CORRELATION ANALYSIS

bull Historically there has been 40 correlation between the SampP 500 index and the Barclays High Yield Bonds Index

bull Data Source wwwfinanceyahoocom

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0686605

R Square 0471427

Adjusted R Square 0449403

Standard Error 143905

Observations 26

BRITISH POUNDS

bull Contract Unit- 62500 British pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$0001 per British pound increments ($625contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

137

138

139

14

141

142

143

144

145

146

147

148

41

20

16

42

20

16

43

20

16

44

20

16

45

20

16

46

20

16

47

20

16

48

20

16

49

20

16

41

02

01

6

41

12

01

6

41

22

01

6

41

32

01

6

41

42

01

6

41

52

01

6

41

62

01

6

41

72

01

6

41

82

01

6

41

92

01

6

42

02

01

6

42

12

01

6

42

22

01

6

42

32

01

6

42

42

01

6

42

52

01

6

42

62

01

6

42

72

01

6

42

82

01

6

42

92

01

6

43

02

01

6

51

20

16

52

20

16

53

20

16

54

20

16

55

20

16

56

20

16

JUNE 2016 Pound Currency

Price

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Brexit- Britain eyeing to leave the European Union next monthndash Consequences- sizeable losses in income and increase in the tension

and uncertainty in the economy (bearish forex market)

ndash GDP expected to shrink between 15-95

ndash Increase borrowing costs and sharp drop in equity and house prices

bull Consumer confidence index in negative figures

bull Sterling is also likely to depreciate further [in a Brexit scenario] perhaps sharply

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Bank of England cautioned there were increasing signs that uncertainty associated with the European Union referendum has begun to weigh on activity and could lead to a sharp fall in the value of the pound and to higher unemployment

CORRELATIONAL ANALYSIS

After doing the regression analysis on the price of 10Y UK Treasury bond index spot price and the Sterling Pound futures price the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0852402623

R Square 0726590231

Adjusted R Square 071470285

Standard Error 0008943103

Observations 25

Data source httpwwwinvestingcom

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

3 MONTH KIBOR

bull Contract Unit- PKR 1 Million

bull Price Quotation- 100-3MKIBOR

bull MPF- 1 basis point (001)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

926

928

93

932

934

936

938

94

3 month KIBOR

Total

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

KEROSENE

bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract

bull MPF- JPY 50Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

31000

32000

33000

34000

35000

36000

37000

38000

39000

Kerosene

Total

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

WHEAT

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- $1250 contract

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

4200

4300

4400

4500

4600

4700

4800

4900

5000

5100

5200

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

WHEAT FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots

bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks

bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian

bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons

bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production

ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516

on higher beginning stocks and imports

bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than

offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the

previous year

bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area

bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter

bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0551

R Square 0303

Adjusted R Square 0270

Standard Error 120231

Observations 23

After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound

bull MPF- ($600 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TRENDS

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

SOY BEAN FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports

and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May

bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years

bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes

bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said

bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed

bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 299033

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

SUGAR

bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs001kg

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

535

54

545

55

555

56

SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)

Series1

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 7: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull One of the reason for the declining SampP 500 index is the reduction of output in the retail and manufacturing sector (reduction in global demand)

bull US GDP growth forecast in the 1Q 2016 is 05 compared to 14 in the 4Q 2015ndash Reason- Decline in the inventories (-05)

bull Index for gross domestic purchases increased 03 in 1Q 2016 compared with 04 in 4Q 2015

bull Disposable personal income increased $1065 billion or 32 percent in the first quarter compared with an increase of $890 billion or 27 percent in the fourth

CORRELATION ANALYSIS

bull Historically there has been 40 correlation between the SampP 500 index and the Barclays High Yield Bonds Index

bull Data Source wwwfinanceyahoocom

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0686605

R Square 0471427

Adjusted R Square 0449403

Standard Error 143905

Observations 26

BRITISH POUNDS

bull Contract Unit- 62500 British pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$0001 per British pound increments ($625contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

137

138

139

14

141

142

143

144

145

146

147

148

41

20

16

42

20

16

43

20

16

44

20

16

45

20

16

46

20

16

47

20

16

48

20

16

49

20

16

41

02

01

6

41

12

01

6

41

22

01

6

41

32

01

6

41

42

01

6

41

52

01

6

41

62

01

6

41

72

01

6

41

82

01

6

41

92

01

6

42

02

01

6

42

12

01

6

42

22

01

6

42

32

01

6

42

42

01

6

42

52

01

6

42

62

01

6

42

72

01

6

42

82

01

6

42

92

01

6

43

02

01

6

51

20

16

52

20

16

53

20

16

54

20

16

55

20

16

56

20

16

JUNE 2016 Pound Currency

Price

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Brexit- Britain eyeing to leave the European Union next monthndash Consequences- sizeable losses in income and increase in the tension

and uncertainty in the economy (bearish forex market)

ndash GDP expected to shrink between 15-95

ndash Increase borrowing costs and sharp drop in equity and house prices

bull Consumer confidence index in negative figures

bull Sterling is also likely to depreciate further [in a Brexit scenario] perhaps sharply

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Bank of England cautioned there were increasing signs that uncertainty associated with the European Union referendum has begun to weigh on activity and could lead to a sharp fall in the value of the pound and to higher unemployment

CORRELATIONAL ANALYSIS

After doing the regression analysis on the price of 10Y UK Treasury bond index spot price and the Sterling Pound futures price the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0852402623

R Square 0726590231

Adjusted R Square 071470285

Standard Error 0008943103

Observations 25

Data source httpwwwinvestingcom

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

3 MONTH KIBOR

bull Contract Unit- PKR 1 Million

bull Price Quotation- 100-3MKIBOR

bull MPF- 1 basis point (001)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

926

928

93

932

934

936

938

94

3 month KIBOR

Total

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

KEROSENE

bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract

bull MPF- JPY 50Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

31000

32000

33000

34000

35000

36000

37000

38000

39000

Kerosene

Total

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

WHEAT

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- $1250 contract

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

4200

4300

4400

4500

4600

4700

4800

4900

5000

5100

5200

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

WHEAT FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots

bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks

bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian

bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons

bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production

ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516

on higher beginning stocks and imports

bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than

offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the

previous year

bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area

bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter

bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0551

R Square 0303

Adjusted R Square 0270

Standard Error 120231

Observations 23

After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound

bull MPF- ($600 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TRENDS

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

SOY BEAN FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports

and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May

bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years

bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes

bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said

bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed

bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 299033

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

SUGAR

bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs001kg

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

535

54

545

55

555

56

SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)

Series1

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 8: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

CORRELATION ANALYSIS

bull Historically there has been 40 correlation between the SampP 500 index and the Barclays High Yield Bonds Index

bull Data Source wwwfinanceyahoocom

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0686605

R Square 0471427

Adjusted R Square 0449403

Standard Error 143905

Observations 26

BRITISH POUNDS

bull Contract Unit- 62500 British pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$0001 per British pound increments ($625contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

137

138

139

14

141

142

143

144

145

146

147

148

41

20

16

42

20

16

43

20

16

44

20

16

45

20

16

46

20

16

47

20

16

48

20

16

49

20

16

41

02

01

6

41

12

01

6

41

22

01

6

41

32

01

6

41

42

01

6

41

52

01

6

41

62

01

6

41

72

01

6

41

82

01

6

41

92

01

6

42

02

01

6

42

12

01

6

42

22

01

6

42

32

01

6

42

42

01

6

42

52

01

6

42

62

01

6

42

72

01

6

42

82

01

6

42

92

01

6

43

02

01

6

51

20

16

52

20

16

53

20

16

54

20

16

55

20

16

56

20

16

JUNE 2016 Pound Currency

Price

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Brexit- Britain eyeing to leave the European Union next monthndash Consequences- sizeable losses in income and increase in the tension

and uncertainty in the economy (bearish forex market)

ndash GDP expected to shrink between 15-95

ndash Increase borrowing costs and sharp drop in equity and house prices

bull Consumer confidence index in negative figures

bull Sterling is also likely to depreciate further [in a Brexit scenario] perhaps sharply

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Bank of England cautioned there were increasing signs that uncertainty associated with the European Union referendum has begun to weigh on activity and could lead to a sharp fall in the value of the pound and to higher unemployment

CORRELATIONAL ANALYSIS

After doing the regression analysis on the price of 10Y UK Treasury bond index spot price and the Sterling Pound futures price the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0852402623

R Square 0726590231

Adjusted R Square 071470285

Standard Error 0008943103

Observations 25

Data source httpwwwinvestingcom

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

3 MONTH KIBOR

bull Contract Unit- PKR 1 Million

bull Price Quotation- 100-3MKIBOR

bull MPF- 1 basis point (001)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

926

928

93

932

934

936

938

94

3 month KIBOR

Total

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

KEROSENE

bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract

bull MPF- JPY 50Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

31000

32000

33000

34000

35000

36000

37000

38000

39000

Kerosene

Total

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

WHEAT

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- $1250 contract

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

4200

4300

4400

4500

4600

4700

4800

4900

5000

5100

5200

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

WHEAT FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots

bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks

bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian

bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons

bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production

ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516

on higher beginning stocks and imports

bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than

offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the

previous year

bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area

bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter

bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0551

R Square 0303

Adjusted R Square 0270

Standard Error 120231

Observations 23

After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound

bull MPF- ($600 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TRENDS

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

SOY BEAN FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports

and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May

bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years

bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes

bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said

bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed

bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 299033

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

SUGAR

bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs001kg

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

535

54

545

55

555

56

SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)

Series1

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 9: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

BRITISH POUNDS

bull Contract Unit- 62500 British pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$0001 per British pound increments ($625contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

137

138

139

14

141

142

143

144

145

146

147

148

41

20

16

42

20

16

43

20

16

44

20

16

45

20

16

46

20

16

47

20

16

48

20

16

49

20

16

41

02

01

6

41

12

01

6

41

22

01

6

41

32

01

6

41

42

01

6

41

52

01

6

41

62

01

6

41

72

01

6

41

82

01

6

41

92

01

6

42

02

01

6

42

12

01

6

42

22

01

6

42

32

01

6

42

42

01

6

42

52

01

6

42

62

01

6

42

72

01

6

42

82

01

6

42

92

01

6

43

02

01

6

51

20

16

52

20

16

53

20

16

54

20

16

55

20

16

56

20

16

JUNE 2016 Pound Currency

Price

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Brexit- Britain eyeing to leave the European Union next monthndash Consequences- sizeable losses in income and increase in the tension

and uncertainty in the economy (bearish forex market)

ndash GDP expected to shrink between 15-95

ndash Increase borrowing costs and sharp drop in equity and house prices

bull Consumer confidence index in negative figures

bull Sterling is also likely to depreciate further [in a Brexit scenario] perhaps sharply

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Bank of England cautioned there were increasing signs that uncertainty associated with the European Union referendum has begun to weigh on activity and could lead to a sharp fall in the value of the pound and to higher unemployment

CORRELATIONAL ANALYSIS

After doing the regression analysis on the price of 10Y UK Treasury bond index spot price and the Sterling Pound futures price the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0852402623

R Square 0726590231

Adjusted R Square 071470285

Standard Error 0008943103

Observations 25

Data source httpwwwinvestingcom

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

3 MONTH KIBOR

bull Contract Unit- PKR 1 Million

bull Price Quotation- 100-3MKIBOR

bull MPF- 1 basis point (001)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

926

928

93

932

934

936

938

94

3 month KIBOR

Total

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

KEROSENE

bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract

bull MPF- JPY 50Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

31000

32000

33000

34000

35000

36000

37000

38000

39000

Kerosene

Total

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

WHEAT

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- $1250 contract

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

4200

4300

4400

4500

4600

4700

4800

4900

5000

5100

5200

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

WHEAT FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots

bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks

bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian

bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons

bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production

ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516

on higher beginning stocks and imports

bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than

offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the

previous year

bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area

bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter

bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0551

R Square 0303

Adjusted R Square 0270

Standard Error 120231

Observations 23

After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound

bull MPF- ($600 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TRENDS

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

SOY BEAN FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports

and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May

bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years

bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes

bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said

bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed

bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 299033

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

SUGAR

bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs001kg

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

535

54

545

55

555

56

SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)

Series1

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 10: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

PRICE TREND

137

138

139

14

141

142

143

144

145

146

147

148

41

20

16

42

20

16

43

20

16

44

20

16

45

20

16

46

20

16

47

20

16

48

20

16

49

20

16

41

02

01

6

41

12

01

6

41

22

01

6

41

32

01

6

41

42

01

6

41

52

01

6

41

62

01

6

41

72

01

6

41

82

01

6

41

92

01

6

42

02

01

6

42

12

01

6

42

22

01

6

42

32

01

6

42

42

01

6

42

52

01

6

42

62

01

6

42

72

01

6

42

82

01

6

42

92

01

6

43

02

01

6

51

20

16

52

20

16

53

20

16

54

20

16

55

20

16

56

20

16

JUNE 2016 Pound Currency

Price

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Brexit- Britain eyeing to leave the European Union next monthndash Consequences- sizeable losses in income and increase in the tension

and uncertainty in the economy (bearish forex market)

ndash GDP expected to shrink between 15-95

ndash Increase borrowing costs and sharp drop in equity and house prices

bull Consumer confidence index in negative figures

bull Sterling is also likely to depreciate further [in a Brexit scenario] perhaps sharply

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Bank of England cautioned there were increasing signs that uncertainty associated with the European Union referendum has begun to weigh on activity and could lead to a sharp fall in the value of the pound and to higher unemployment

CORRELATIONAL ANALYSIS

After doing the regression analysis on the price of 10Y UK Treasury bond index spot price and the Sterling Pound futures price the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0852402623

R Square 0726590231

Adjusted R Square 071470285

Standard Error 0008943103

Observations 25

Data source httpwwwinvestingcom

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

3 MONTH KIBOR

bull Contract Unit- PKR 1 Million

bull Price Quotation- 100-3MKIBOR

bull MPF- 1 basis point (001)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

926

928

93

932

934

936

938

94

3 month KIBOR

Total

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

KEROSENE

bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract

bull MPF- JPY 50Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

31000

32000

33000

34000

35000

36000

37000

38000

39000

Kerosene

Total

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

WHEAT

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- $1250 contract

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

4200

4300

4400

4500

4600

4700

4800

4900

5000

5100

5200

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

WHEAT FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots

bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks

bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian

bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons

bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production

ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516

on higher beginning stocks and imports

bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than

offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the

previous year

bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area

bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter

bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0551

R Square 0303

Adjusted R Square 0270

Standard Error 120231

Observations 23

After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound

bull MPF- ($600 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TRENDS

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

SOY BEAN FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports

and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May

bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years

bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes

bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said

bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed

bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 299033

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

SUGAR

bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs001kg

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

535

54

545

55

555

56

SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)

Series1

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 11: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Brexit- Britain eyeing to leave the European Union next monthndash Consequences- sizeable losses in income and increase in the tension

and uncertainty in the economy (bearish forex market)

ndash GDP expected to shrink between 15-95

ndash Increase borrowing costs and sharp drop in equity and house prices

bull Consumer confidence index in negative figures

bull Sterling is also likely to depreciate further [in a Brexit scenario] perhaps sharply

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Bank of England cautioned there were increasing signs that uncertainty associated with the European Union referendum has begun to weigh on activity and could lead to a sharp fall in the value of the pound and to higher unemployment

CORRELATIONAL ANALYSIS

After doing the regression analysis on the price of 10Y UK Treasury bond index spot price and the Sterling Pound futures price the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0852402623

R Square 0726590231

Adjusted R Square 071470285

Standard Error 0008943103

Observations 25

Data source httpwwwinvestingcom

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

3 MONTH KIBOR

bull Contract Unit- PKR 1 Million

bull Price Quotation- 100-3MKIBOR

bull MPF- 1 basis point (001)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

926

928

93

932

934

936

938

94

3 month KIBOR

Total

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

KEROSENE

bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract

bull MPF- JPY 50Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

31000

32000

33000

34000

35000

36000

37000

38000

39000

Kerosene

Total

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

WHEAT

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- $1250 contract

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

4200

4300

4400

4500

4600

4700

4800

4900

5000

5100

5200

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

WHEAT FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots

bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks

bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian

bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons

bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production

ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516

on higher beginning stocks and imports

bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than

offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the

previous year

bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area

bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter

bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0551

R Square 0303

Adjusted R Square 0270

Standard Error 120231

Observations 23

After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound

bull MPF- ($600 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TRENDS

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

SOY BEAN FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports

and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May

bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years

bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes

bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said

bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed

bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 299033

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

SUGAR

bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs001kg

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

535

54

545

55

555

56

SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)

Series1

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 12: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Bank of England cautioned there were increasing signs that uncertainty associated with the European Union referendum has begun to weigh on activity and could lead to a sharp fall in the value of the pound and to higher unemployment

CORRELATIONAL ANALYSIS

After doing the regression analysis on the price of 10Y UK Treasury bond index spot price and the Sterling Pound futures price the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0852402623

R Square 0726590231

Adjusted R Square 071470285

Standard Error 0008943103

Observations 25

Data source httpwwwinvestingcom

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

3 MONTH KIBOR

bull Contract Unit- PKR 1 Million

bull Price Quotation- 100-3MKIBOR

bull MPF- 1 basis point (001)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

926

928

93

932

934

936

938

94

3 month KIBOR

Total

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

KEROSENE

bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract

bull MPF- JPY 50Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

31000

32000

33000

34000

35000

36000

37000

38000

39000

Kerosene

Total

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

WHEAT

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- $1250 contract

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

4200

4300

4400

4500

4600

4700

4800

4900

5000

5100

5200

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

WHEAT FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots

bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks

bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian

bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons

bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production

ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516

on higher beginning stocks and imports

bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than

offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the

previous year

bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area

bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter

bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0551

R Square 0303

Adjusted R Square 0270

Standard Error 120231

Observations 23

After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound

bull MPF- ($600 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TRENDS

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

SOY BEAN FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports

and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May

bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years

bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes

bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said

bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed

bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 299033

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

SUGAR

bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs001kg

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

535

54

545

55

555

56

SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)

Series1

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 13: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

CORRELATIONAL ANALYSIS

After doing the regression analysis on the price of 10Y UK Treasury bond index spot price and the Sterling Pound futures price the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0852402623

R Square 0726590231

Adjusted R Square 071470285

Standard Error 0008943103

Observations 25

Data source httpwwwinvestingcom

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

3 MONTH KIBOR

bull Contract Unit- PKR 1 Million

bull Price Quotation- 100-3MKIBOR

bull MPF- 1 basis point (001)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

926

928

93

932

934

936

938

94

3 month KIBOR

Total

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

KEROSENE

bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract

bull MPF- JPY 50Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

31000

32000

33000

34000

35000

36000

37000

38000

39000

Kerosene

Total

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

WHEAT

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- $1250 contract

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

4200

4300

4400

4500

4600

4700

4800

4900

5000

5100

5200

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

WHEAT FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots

bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks

bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian

bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons

bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production

ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516

on higher beginning stocks and imports

bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than

offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the

previous year

bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area

bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter

bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0551

R Square 0303

Adjusted R Square 0270

Standard Error 120231

Observations 23

After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound

bull MPF- ($600 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TRENDS

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

SOY BEAN FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports

and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May

bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years

bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes

bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said

bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed

bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 299033

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

SUGAR

bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs001kg

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

535

54

545

55

555

56

SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)

Series1

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 14: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

3 MONTH KIBOR

bull Contract Unit- PKR 1 Million

bull Price Quotation- 100-3MKIBOR

bull MPF- 1 basis point (001)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

926

928

93

932

934

936

938

94

3 month KIBOR

Total

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

KEROSENE

bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract

bull MPF- JPY 50Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

31000

32000

33000

34000

35000

36000

37000

38000

39000

Kerosene

Total

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

WHEAT

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- $1250 contract

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

4200

4300

4400

4500

4600

4700

4800

4900

5000

5100

5200

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

WHEAT FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots

bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks

bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian

bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons

bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production

ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516

on higher beginning stocks and imports

bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than

offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the

previous year

bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area

bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter

bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0551

R Square 0303

Adjusted R Square 0270

Standard Error 120231

Observations 23

After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound

bull MPF- ($600 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TRENDS

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

SOY BEAN FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports

and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May

bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years

bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes

bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said

bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed

bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 299033

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

SUGAR

bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs001kg

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

535

54

545

55

555

56

SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)

Series1

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 15: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

3 MONTH KIBOR

bull Contract Unit- PKR 1 Million

bull Price Quotation- 100-3MKIBOR

bull MPF- 1 basis point (001)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

926

928

93

932

934

936

938

94

3 month KIBOR

Total

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

KEROSENE

bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract

bull MPF- JPY 50Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

31000

32000

33000

34000

35000

36000

37000

38000

39000

Kerosene

Total

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

WHEAT

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- $1250 contract

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

4200

4300

4400

4500

4600

4700

4800

4900

5000

5100

5200

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

WHEAT FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots

bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks

bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian

bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons

bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production

ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516

on higher beginning stocks and imports

bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than

offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the

previous year

bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area

bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter

bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0551

R Square 0303

Adjusted R Square 0270

Standard Error 120231

Observations 23

After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound

bull MPF- ($600 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TRENDS

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

SOY BEAN FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports

and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May

bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years

bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes

bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said

bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed

bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 299033

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

SUGAR

bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs001kg

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

535

54

545

55

555

56

SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)

Series1

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 16: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

926

928

93

932

934

936

938

94

3 month KIBOR

Total

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

KEROSENE

bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract

bull MPF- JPY 50Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

31000

32000

33000

34000

35000

36000

37000

38000

39000

Kerosene

Total

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

WHEAT

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- $1250 contract

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

4200

4300

4400

4500

4600

4700

4800

4900

5000

5100

5200

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

WHEAT FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots

bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks

bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian

bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons

bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production

ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516

on higher beginning stocks and imports

bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than

offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the

previous year

bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area

bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter

bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0551

R Square 0303

Adjusted R Square 0270

Standard Error 120231

Observations 23

After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound

bull MPF- ($600 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TRENDS

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

SOY BEAN FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports

and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May

bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years

bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes

bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said

bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed

bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 299033

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

SUGAR

bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs001kg

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

535

54

545

55

555

56

SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)

Series1

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 17: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

KEROSENE

bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract

bull MPF- JPY 50Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

31000

32000

33000

34000

35000

36000

37000

38000

39000

Kerosene

Total

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

WHEAT

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- $1250 contract

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

4200

4300

4400

4500

4600

4700

4800

4900

5000

5100

5200

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

WHEAT FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots

bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks

bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian

bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons

bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production

ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516

on higher beginning stocks and imports

bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than

offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the

previous year

bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area

bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter

bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0551

R Square 0303

Adjusted R Square 0270

Standard Error 120231

Observations 23

After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound

bull MPF- ($600 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TRENDS

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

SOY BEAN FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports

and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May

bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years

bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes

bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said

bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed

bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 299033

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

SUGAR

bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs001kg

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

535

54

545

55

555

56

SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)

Series1

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 18: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

KEROSENE

bull Contract Unit- 50 kl (approximately 13210 US gallons) contract

bull MPF- JPY 50Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

31000

32000

33000

34000

35000

36000

37000

38000

39000

Kerosene

Total

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

WHEAT

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- $1250 contract

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

4200

4300

4400

4500

4600

4700

4800

4900

5000

5100

5200

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

WHEAT FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots

bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks

bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian

bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons

bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production

ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516

on higher beginning stocks and imports

bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than

offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the

previous year

bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area

bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter

bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0551

R Square 0303

Adjusted R Square 0270

Standard Error 120231

Observations 23

After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound

bull MPF- ($600 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TRENDS

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

SOY BEAN FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports

and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May

bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years

bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes

bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said

bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed

bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 299033

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

SUGAR

bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs001kg

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

535

54

545

55

555

56

SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)

Series1

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 19: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

PRICE TREND

31000

32000

33000

34000

35000

36000

37000

38000

39000

Kerosene

Total

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

WHEAT

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- $1250 contract

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

4200

4300

4400

4500

4600

4700

4800

4900

5000

5100

5200

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

WHEAT FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots

bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks

bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian

bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons

bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production

ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516

on higher beginning stocks and imports

bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than

offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the

previous year

bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area

bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter

bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0551

R Square 0303

Adjusted R Square 0270

Standard Error 120231

Observations 23

After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound

bull MPF- ($600 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TRENDS

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

SOY BEAN FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports

and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May

bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years

bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes

bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said

bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed

bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 299033

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

SUGAR

bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs001kg

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

535

54

545

55

555

56

SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)

Series1

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 20: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

WHEAT

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- $1250 contract

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

4200

4300

4400

4500

4600

4700

4800

4900

5000

5100

5200

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

WHEAT FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots

bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks

bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian

bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons

bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production

ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516

on higher beginning stocks and imports

bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than

offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the

previous year

bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area

bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter

bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0551

R Square 0303

Adjusted R Square 0270

Standard Error 120231

Observations 23

After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound

bull MPF- ($600 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TRENDS

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

SOY BEAN FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports

and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May

bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years

bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes

bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said

bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed

bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 299033

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

SUGAR

bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs001kg

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

535

54

545

55

555

56

SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)

Series1

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 21: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

PRICE TREND

4200

4300

4400

4500

4600

4700

4800

4900

5000

5100

5200

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

WHEAT FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots

bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks

bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian

bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons

bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production

ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516

on higher beginning stocks and imports

bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than

offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the

previous year

bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area

bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter

bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0551

R Square 0303

Adjusted R Square 0270

Standard Error 120231

Observations 23

After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound

bull MPF- ($600 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TRENDS

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

SOY BEAN FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports

and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May

bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years

bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes

bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said

bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed

bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 299033

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

SUGAR

bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs001kg

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

535

54

545

55

555

56

SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)

Series1

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 22: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Wheat futures saw less affected moves as speculators trimmed thenet short by 17922 lots

bull This still leaves speculators short by 88241 lots after the rapidsell-down in wheat two weeks

bull Forecast for 2016-17 wheat production upped by 4m tons to 717mtons citing the improving outlook in the European Union andRussian

bull Wheat end stocks were seen rising to 218m tons amp prospects forthe world Corn crop were upgraded by 5m tons to 998m tonswhile ideas for consumption were cut by 5m tons

bull The revised 2015-16 corn numbers will cancel out a downgrade tocarry-in stocks due to lower South American production

ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516

on higher beginning stocks and imports

bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than

offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the

previous year

bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area

bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter

bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0551

R Square 0303

Adjusted R Square 0270

Standard Error 120231

Observations 23

After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound

bull MPF- ($600 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TRENDS

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

SOY BEAN FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports

and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May

bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years

bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes

bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said

bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed

bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 299033

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

SUGAR

bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs001kg

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

535

54

545

55

555

56

SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)

Series1

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 23: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

ECONOMIC ANALYSISbull US wheat supplies for 201617 are projected up 6 percent from 201516

on higher beginning stocks and imports

bull All wheat production is projected at 1998 million bushels down 3percent- Reason of Decline Itrsquos due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than

offsets increased yields- The all wheat yield is projected at 467 bushels per acre up 7 percent from the

previous year

bull The survey based forecast for 201617 winter wheat production is upwith higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area

bull Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions andyields are projected higher for Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter andWhite Winter

bull Spring wheat for 201617 is projected to decline 16 percent on lowerarea as well as a return to trend yield which is below last yearrsquos level

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0551

R Square 0303

Adjusted R Square 0270

Standard Error 120231

Observations 23

After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound

bull MPF- ($600 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TRENDS

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

SOY BEAN FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports

and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May

bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years

bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes

bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said

bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed

bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 299033

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

SUGAR

bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs001kg

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

535

54

545

55

555

56

SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)

Series1

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 24: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0551

R Square 0303

Adjusted R Square 0270

Standard Error 120231

Observations 23

After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement prices of Corn and the settlement prices of Wheat the following observations were made

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound

bull MPF- ($600 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TRENDS

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

SOY BEAN FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports

and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May

bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years

bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes

bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said

bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed

bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 299033

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

SUGAR

bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs001kg

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

535

54

545

55

555

56

SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)

Series1

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 25: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 60000 pounds (~ 27 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per pound

bull MPF- ($600 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TRENDS

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

SOY BEAN FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports

and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May

bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years

bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes

bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said

bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed

bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 299033

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

SUGAR

bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs001kg

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

535

54

545

55

555

56

SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)

Series1

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 26: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

PRICE TRENDS

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

SOY BEAN FUTURES

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports

and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May

bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years

bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes

bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said

bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed

bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 299033

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

SUGAR

bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs001kg

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

535

54

545

55

555

56

SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)

Series1

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 27: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybeans closed at near the highest closing level since August 2014ndash Reason It was because of demand due to higher than projected exports

and lower production in South America according to USDArsquos World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for May

bull Hedge funds lifted their net long in soybeans to the highest level for over two years

bull Speculators are still negative in corn but they are only short by 30909 lots after slashing bearish bets at the fastest pace since the start of 2015

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes

bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said

bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed

bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 299033

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

SUGAR

bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs001kg

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

535

54

545

55

555

56

SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)

Series1

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 28: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Soybean futures soared as the US Department of Agricultureforecast falling US and world stocks thanks to lower SouthAmerican production and heavy US crushing volumes

bull The outlook for soybeans remains bearish in the long-termdespite a recent price rally Rabobank said

bull Soybean futures have gained about 14 since the start of themonth prompting Rabobank to upgrade its short term priceforecasts for the oilseed

bull But the bank warns that long-term bearish fundamentals stillremain in place and will ultimately push prices lower

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 299033

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

SUGAR

bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs001kg

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

535

54

545

55

555

56

SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)

Series1

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 29: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Milk and theSettlement Price of Soybean the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 299033

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

SUGAR

bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs001kg

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

535

54

545

55

555

56

SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)

Series1

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 30: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

SUGAR

bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs001kg

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

535

54

545

55

555

56

SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)

Series1

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 31: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

SUGAR

bull Contract Unit- 10 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs001kg

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

535

54

545

55

555

56

SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)

Series1

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 32: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

535

54

545

55

555

56

SUGAR FUTURE (PMEX)

Series1

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 33: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 34: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

PLATINUM

bull Contract Unit- 500 g contract (approximately 1608 troy ounces)

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 35: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

Platinum

Total

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 36: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 1000 barrels

bull MPF- $001per barrel

bull Settlement Method-Deliverable

bull Tick value is 10

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 37: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

PRIZE TREND

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-A

pr

2-A

pr

3-A

pr

4-A

pr

5-A

pr

6-A

pr

7-A

pr

8-A

pr

9-A

pr

10

-Ap

r

11

-Ap

r

12

-Ap

r

13

-Ap

r

14

-Ap

r

15

-Ap

r

16

-Ap

r

17

-Ap

r

18

-Ap

r

19

-Ap

r

20

-Ap

r

21

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

23

-Ap

r

24

-Ap

r

25

-Ap

r

26

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

28

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

30

-Ap

r

1-M

ay

2-M

ay

3-M

ay

4-M

ay

5-M

ay

6-M

ay

Crude oil

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 38: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Crude Oil Production in the United States is expected to be 911552 BBLD1K by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations

bull Future estimation of Crude Oil Production in the United States to stand at 906926 in 12 months time

bull In the long-term the United States Crude Oil Production is projected to trend around 731400 BBLD1K in 2020 according to econometric models

bull Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 39: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

bull Crude falls slightly as OPEC April production surges to 8-year high

bull On the NYME crude oil for June delivery has decreased in value as energy traders continued to react to sharp declines in domestic production and a surprising draw in crude inventories last week

bull On Friday though OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Report for May that crude oil production last month rose by 188000 barrels per day to average 3244 million bpd according to secondary sources

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 40: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

bull It came among considerable increases in Iran Iraq and Angola partially offset by declines in Nigeria and Kuwait Saudi Arabia the largest producer in the 13-member cartel saw its production fall slightly by 8000 bpd to 10125 million bpd Overall OPEC production reached its highest level since the peak of the Financial Crisis

bull Still the value of OPECs Reference Basket moved higher for the 3rd consecutive month gaining $321barrel to $3786 OPEC credited an accelerated decline of US crude production a weaker dollar a wave of supply disruptions worldwide and forecasts for a sharp fall in non-OPEC production for the latest price gains

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 41: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0685732771

R Square 0470229433

Adjusted R Square 0445002263

Standard Error 1839060966

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the price of dollar and the settlement price of crude oil the following observations were made

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 42: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

CORN

bull Contract Unit- 5000 bushels (~ 136 Metric Tons)

bull Price Quotation- Cents per bushel

bull MPF- 14 of one cent per bushel ($1250 per contract)

bull Settlement method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 43: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

PRICE TREND

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

SE

TT

LE

D P

RIC

E

DATE

CORN

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 44: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull In the result of its end-of-March plunge from 2145 to 1992 in reaction to a USDA report about Corn area plantings for the forthcoming harvest season CORN has recovered all of the decline largely because of potential foreign demand from China and Brazil

bull The April up-move exhibits very bullish form and indicates that upon a sustained climb above 2150 CORN should follow through and next accelerate toward 221030

bull Any weakness into the 207050 area should be used to add to long positions

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 45: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

CONTbull Corn prices have been moving lower for over 3 years so farmers have

hopes for a turn to the upside

bull With some increase in corn acreage anticipated the US average yield will become the focus of the corn market as the planting and growing season progresses

bull With planted acreage of 90 million acres as suggested by USDA analysts acreage harvested for grain would likely be near 825 million acres

bull An average yield near our calculated trend value of 1662 bushels per acre would result in a crop near 13712 billion bushels and likely keep corn supplies in a modest surplus for another year and keep prices near current levels

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 46: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

CONT

bull Projected plantings of the 8 major crops would decline by 55 million acres (22 percent) in 201617 but that corn acreage would increase by two million acres (23 percent) to a total of 90 million acres

bull The USDA projected a 2016 US average corn yield of 168 bushels per acre at last weeks Outlook Forum just slightly below the 2015 average of 1684 bushels

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 47: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0550581242

R Square 0303139704

Adjusted R Square 0269955881

Standard Error 1138968208

Observations 23

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of wheat and the settlement price of corn the following observations were made

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 48: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 49: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

CRUDE OIL

bull Contract Unit- 100 barrels

bull MPF- $001barrel

bull Settlement method- Cash Settlement in Pakistani Rupees

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 50: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 CRUDE OIL

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 51: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 52: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

RUBBER

bull Contract Unit- 5000 kg (5 tonnes) contract

bull MPF- JPY 500Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 53: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

Rubber

Total

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 54: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

ALUMINUM

bull Contract Unit- 55116 pounds (equivalent to 25 metric tons)

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$000001 per pound

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 55: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

PRICE TREND

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1-A

pr-

16

2-A

pr-

16

3-A

pr-

16

4-A

pr-

16

5-A

pr-

16

6-A

pr-

16

7-A

pr-

16

8-A

pr-

16

9-A

pr-

16

10

-Ap

r-1

6

11

-Ap

r-1

6

12

-Ap

r-1

6

13

-Ap

r-1

6

14

-Ap

r-1

6

15

-Ap

r-1

6

16

-Ap

r-1

6

17

-Ap

r-1

6

18

-Ap

r-1

6

19

-Ap

r-1

6

20

-Ap

r-1

6

21

-Ap

r-1

6

22

-Ap

r-1

6

23

-Ap

r-1

6

24

-Ap

r-1

6

25

-Ap

r-1

6

26

-Ap

r-1

6

27

-Ap

r-1

6

28

-Ap

r-1

6

29

-Ap

r-1

6

30

-Ap

r-1

6

1-M

ay-1

6

2-M

ay-1

6

3-M

ay-1

6

4-M

ay-1

6

5-M

ay-1

6

6-M

ay-1

6

Aluminium

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 56: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull The domestic aluminum industry is growing and has the potential to be an even bigger bright spot for US manufacturing But subsidized production in China which is leading to unfair and illegal trade practices threatens the industryrsquos continued health

bull Much of this future growth potential is threatened for one key reason ndash the persistent and dramatic overproduction of aluminum in China which is distorting the market and hurting global producers

bull Eight US based smelters have either closed or curtailed since 2015 meaning only 2 smelters remain fully operational in the United States today ndash the lowest level of production since World War II

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 57: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

ECONOMIC ANALYSISUS Aluminum Industry Economic Contribution

Jobs (FTE) WagesBenefits Economic Impact

Direct 160888 $ 12105994500 $ 75083608300

Supplier 260557 $ 18679386600 $ 62503284800

Induced 291459 $ 15085209100 $ 48570732300

Total 712904 $ 45870590200 $ 186157625400

2013 2016 Percentage Change

Alumina RefiningPrimary Aluminum 12787 5379 darr 58

Secondary ProductionAlloying 11538 11747 uarr 2

SheetPlateFoilExtrusionsCoatings 62465 67155 uarr 8

Foundries 36484 41552 uarr 14

Metal Service Centers 23142 24633 uarr 6

Total 156744 160888 uarr 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 58: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Globex Volume Units

Globex Volume Units

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 59: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0707248209

R Square 050020003

Adjusted R Square 0479375031

Standard Error 1811328792

Observations 26

After doing the regression analysis on the settlement price of Aluminum (dependent) and the settlement price of USD index (independent) the following observations were made

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 60: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

MILK

bull Contract Unit- 200000 lbs of Class III Milk ( ˜ 90 metric tons)

bull Price Quotation- Dollars per hundredweight (cwt)

bull MPF- $001 per cwt (= $2000 per contract)

bull Settlement Method-Financially Settled

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 61: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

PRIZE TREND

115

12

125

13

135

14

145

Ax

is T

itle

SETTLED PRICE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 62: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull A dip of prices of Milk futures is also a resultant of lowered downcattle export from the US Reports Suggests that the inventory levelsof the dealer are substantially very high historically

bull Decrease of 38 Million GDP from the Agriculture has affectiveinfluence to Diary at US

bull With ongoing and improved method of production leads to attract theimporters to European and Australian Markets

bull Extensive growth of Cheese inventory level leads to state in Marketthat ldquo Do Cheese What the World Needsrdquo

bull Recent rally at the Soy bean prices has also a resultant to this pricedecrease

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 63: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

REGRESSION ANALYSISAfter doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of Soybean andthe Settlement Price of Milk the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0779

R Square 0608

Adjusted R Square 0591

Standard Error 253433

Observations 26

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 64: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 65: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

RICE

bull Contract Unit- 25 Metric Tons

bull MPF- Rs 1KG

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 66: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

3300

3350

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SE

TT

LE

ME

NT

PR

ICE

DATE

CONTRACT JULY 2016 RICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 67: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 68: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

SOY BEAN

bull Contract Unit- 25000 kg

bull MPF- JPY 250Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 69: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

45000

45200

45400

45600

45800

46000

46200

46400

46600

Soy Bean

Total

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 70: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

COPPER

bull Contract Unit- 25000 pounds

bull Minimum Price Fluctuation-$00005 per pound

bull Settlement Method- Deliverable

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 71: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

PRICE TREND

195

2

205

21

215

22

225

23

Copper

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 72: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copper prices fell by more than a quarter in 2015 Copper has been on a downtrend after hitting $10000 per metric ton in the beginning of 2011 LME (London Metals Exchange) copper prices have fallen in every year since 2011

bull Global sentiments should also impact copper prices We might see a spillover from geopolitical tensions onto risk assets

bull Growing demand from China ndash responsible for 46 of the global trade in the metal ndash is crucial for the copper market which is set to experience another year of oversupply albeit smaller than 2015s 350000+ tones surplus which was the largest in several years

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 73: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Copperrsquos future prediction could depend on the prevailing demand and supply situation

bull The trends in global refined copper consumption are also progressing to an alarming state

bull Copper prices declines 339 to 2078 as traders worried Chinese growth as well as warning from the IMF

bull In contrast to the oil unplanned outages the run rate for copper disruptions is lagging behind our 800kt allowance for the year 2016 is shaping up to be a ldquolowrdquo disruption year in line with 2004 and 2013

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 74: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of copper and the Settlement Price of crude oil the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0533034524

R Square 0284125803

Adjusted R Square 0250036556

Standard Error 0049668817Observations 23

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 75: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

SILVER

Contract Unit- 5000 troy ounces

Price Quotation- US Cents per troy ounce

MPF- $0001 per troy ounce

Settlement Method-Deliverable

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 76: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

PRICE TREND

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 77: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver futures are up about 85 percent this year making it stand out among other commodities and financial markets

bull Silver has positive supply and demand factors working in its favor for 2016 and the bank forecasts an average fourth quarter price of $17 an ounce Silver mine supply is falling as low commodity prices caused miners to limit production of metals in general

bull The white metal had gained 81 percent or $114 as of March 30 Thatrsquos less than goldlsquos 1484-percent rise since the start of 2016

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 78: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

bull Silver hit its highest point in 2016 on March 17 when it reached $1590 That was the day after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to leave interest rates unchanged which positively impact on silver prices in future

bull The key factors that affect the volatility of silver are fluctuating industrial demand and store of value demand geo-political uncertainties rising crude oil prices depreciating dollar direction of gold prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 79: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

bull After doing the Regression Analysis on the Settlement price of silver and the Settlement Price of USD $ the following observations were made

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 077398989

R Square 059906035

Adjusted R Square 0581628192

Standard Error 0602450019

Observations 25

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 80: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

PMEXPakistan Mercantile Exchange

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 81: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

COTTON

bull Contract Unit- 5000 Pounds

bull MPF- $05Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 82: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwpmexcompk

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 2-May 3-May 4-May 5-May 6-May

SETTLED PRICE

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 83: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

TOCOMTokyo Commodity Exchange

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 84: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

AZUKI (RED BEAN)

bull Contract Unit- 2400 kg (80 bags)

bull MPF- JPY 800Contract

bull Settlement method-Physically Delivered Futures Transaction

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 85: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

PRICE TREND

Data source httpwwwtocomorjp

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Azuki (Red Bean)

Total

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 86: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

REFERENCESbull httpwwwinvestopediacomaskanswers06usdollarcorrelationasp

bull httpwwwfederalreservegoveconresdatadefaulthtm

bull httpsresearchstlouisfedorg

bull httpswwwcommercegoveconomicindicators

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=^GSPC+Historical+Prices

bull httpwwwbeagovnewsreleasesnationalgdp2016gdp1q16_advhtm

bull httpwwwmarketwatchcomstorythe-morning-that-first-quarter-gdp-died-2016-03-28

bull httpfinanceyahoocomqhps=JNKampa=03ampb=1ampc=2016ampd=04ampe=06ampf=2016ampg=d

bull httpwwwibtimescoukeu-referendum-imf-warns-brexit-could-lead-sizeable-losses-income-1559879

bull httpwwwinvestingcomanalysisconsumer-spending-fails-to-excite-dollar-bulls-200129880

bull httpwwwscaisrumichedu

bull httpsdatascaisrumichedufetchdocphpdocid=548554

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 87: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

REFERENCES

bull httpwwwtocomorjpguideyoukouazuki_redbeanindexhtml

bull httpwwwpmexcompkproductsinterestphp

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 88: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 89: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

INFLATION RATE

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 90: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

INDUSTRY PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index

Page 91: Effect of price fluction of money market instruments on Commodity futures prices

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX UK

1020000

1025000

1030000

1035000

1040000

1045000

1050000

1055000

1060000

1065000

Industrial production index