OVERVIEW

MANIFESTO REPORT CARD

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK

The publication of the party manifestos is always a much anticipated event in the election campaign and this time has been worth the wait as all three parties sought to respond to the realities of their polling. The documents published this week seem to indicate that the parties have finally remembered Tony Blair’s mantra that elections are only won on the broad centre-ground of politics. The Labour Party sought to reposition itself as the party of fiscal responsibility, while the Conservative Party made a number of allegedly unfunded spending commitments and sought to hide its ambition to shrink the state.

At this election the manifestos are both more and less important. More because they set out the public opening bids, common ground, red lines and potential deal breakers for coalition talks in the days, and maybe weeks, after May 7th. And less important as at this election it will be highly unlikely that any one party will achieve the votes to have the opportunity to try to implement their manifesto in full.

EDELMAN ELECTION UPDATE months days

Extending the right-to-buy, an extra £8bn a year for the NHS, 30 hours free childcare for 3-4 yr olds.

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEMSPriorities

Europe - holding an EU referendum by 2017 remains a key priority for Conservative MPs.

Red Lines?

Taking those on the minimum wage out of income tax, a key part of the Prime Minister’s efforts to cast the Conservatives as the “real party of working people”.

Surprises

An £8 p.h. Minimum Wage, zero-hours contracts banned, extending free childcare.

Priorities

The NHS – Labour will protect it and recruit thousands more GPs, nurses and homecare workers.

Red Lines?

A Budget Responsibility Lock, meaning every policy is paid for, no additional borrowing and the first line of Labour’s Budget: “This Budget cuts the deficit every year”.

Surprises

Increase the tax-free allowance to £12,500, a balanced current budget by 2017-18, new legislation to fight climate change.

Priorities

Rapid EU referendum, boost defence spending, introduce immigration points system.

UKIP

Devolution of more powers to Holyrood, overhaul transmission charging regime, increase infrastructure spending in Scotland.

SNP

Increasingly the parties will need to become more honest with the voters and indicate which policies are cast iron commitments and which are aspirations that they will amend, trade or cast aside in coalition negotiations. If multi-party government is to become the new normal for the UK political system, then the manifestos will need to evolve too.

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Jon Mitchell

OTHERS

EDELMAN ELECTION UPDATE

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Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK

Gurpreet Brar 0203 047 2466gurpreet.brar@edelman.com

POLLING REPORT

Manifestos rarely win elections - but can lose them. It is hard to recall, but heading into manifesto week in 2005 the Conservatives were close to Labour in the polls – but the Conservative manifesto went over badly and they never recovered. In 2010 as well, the Conservative manifesto coincided with a dip in their fortunes – although this effect was later obscured by the Cleggasm. And of course, Labour’s ‘longest suicide note in history’ in 1983 exacerbated (and exemplified) their problems then.

The parties both sought to use their manifestos to address their main perceived weakness: a lack of fiscal credibility for Labour and a lack of eye-catching vote-winning policies for the Conservatives. However, for both parties it was a little late in the day – with just two full weeks of campaigning left, reversing voter attitudes that have become built up over the last five years (or longer) is extremely difficult.

All parties can probably take comfort then from the lack of movement the in polls. Despite a couple of polls to the contrary, the evidence overwhelmingly suggests that Labour and the Conservatives remain deadlocked in the low-to-mid 30s. At this point, Labour will be the happier of the two parties, as the Conservatives may have expected to hold a small lead by this point – though it is very much all to play for.

Chief Whip SlipTory Chief Whip Michael Gove – who hasn’t had a happy tenure in the job – may have misheard the BBC’s Chris Gibson. Asked if it was too late for his party to win the election, he said “Yes!” before going merrily on his way.

Litterbug The digital battle continues. This week Labour turned a 2010 Lib Dem broadcast on its head, asking Nick Clegg to help clean up all the “broken promises” littering Britain.

Handbags at Dawn Election campaigns throw up unexpected developments, but perhaps none quite as strange as the son of a Polish aristocrat challenging Nigel Farage to a swordfight in Hyde Park. If he wasn’t up to the task, Janek Żyliński said, they could have a duel of words instead.

S M T W T F S

5

12

19

26

6

13

20

27

7

14

21

28

1

8

15

22

29

2

9

16

23

30

3

10

17

24

4

11

18

25

CENTRE FOR LONDON HUSTINGS

WELSH PARTY LEADERS DEBATE

RUSI DEFENCE DEBATE

Conservative Party Co-Chairman and Minister Without Portfolio Grant Shapps, Crime Prevention Minister Lynne Featherstone, Shadow Business Secretary Chuka Umunna and Leader of the Green Party Natalie Bennett are expected to attend The London Hustings hosted by Centre for London.

21

Welsh Secretary Stephen Crabb, Shadow Welsh Secretary Owen Smith, Leader of Plaid Cymru Leanne Wood, Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats Kirsty Williams, Green Party PPC Pippa Bartolotti and UKIP MEP Nathan Gill are expected to attend ITV Cymru Wales’ General Election Debate.

22

The Royal United Services Institute and Forces TV will host a televised debate on defence issues facing the United Kingdom.

24

HIGHLIGHTS & LOWLIGHTS WHAT TO WATCH FOR IN APRIL

Harry Spencer

80%

Increase the personal tax allowance to £12,500 and linking it to the minimum wage.

57%Giving tenants of housing associations the right to buy their home at a discount.

Cutting university tuition fees from £9,000 to £6,000 a year. 33%

Reducing the deficit every year and balancing the budget as soon as possible.76%

POLLING THE POLICIES

Source: YouGov 13 April 2015