eda conference eco innovation
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Taranaki Technology - Smart grid and consumers - Tuesday 5th February 2013TRANSCRIPT
Solar PV: Where we are at today and the alternatives. A cost benefit
analysis of grid-tied renewable generation
By Michael Lawley
70% Off Grid: 30% On Grid
• Off grid – 3.1kW • On Grid – 3.7kW
Solar PV retail pricesSource: EcoInnovation sales invoices
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
NZ Retail Prices
Year
$NZ
Reta
il +
GST
Approximate installed price breakdown 2012 $NZ• Solar PV panels $1.5/W• Labour $1.0/W• Tracking $0.25c/W• Inverter $0.75c/W• Admin/Compliance 0.25c/W• Total $3.75/W installed
(Germany is $2.83NZ/W installed)
• 6kW installed system = $22,500 +gst
Your income on a 6kW PV array
• Annual generation 6600 kWhr• Potential savings at 25c/kWhr = $1980/year • % return = 8.8% (inflation proofed)
The above assumes you can sell at the same price you buy or can consume it all yourself.
Retailer Pricing It’s a 2 horse race
Source: SEANZ
Meridian25c per kWhr capped at 100kWh per month, with 10c per kWhr thereafter.
Contact17.5c
Trust Power 6.5c
Genesis 4-7c
Mercury 3.5c
Contact V Meridian
Contact: $1155/Annum = 5.1% ROI
Meridian: 1200 units at 25c, balance at 10c= $840/Annum = 3.7% ROI
Likely Customers – On grid solar PV
• Rest homes – consume all the power generated, no need to sell. They get best ROI >10% as operate 24/7.
• Businesses that open every day.• Schools (weekend base load only)• Retired clients with money in the bank and still 20
years to live (at home during the day).• The affluent green consumer.• Uninformed clients that want to beat the system.
What falls in price faster than Solar PV?
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
Year
$NZ
Reta
il +
GST
Answer:
2011 20120
5
10
15
20
25
30
Meridian buy back price
Year
NZ
cent
s/kW
hr
Can Solar PV make a difference? Germany Breaks World Record for
Solar Power Generation with 22GWWith highs of 23ºC and cloudless
skies on May 26, Germany produced 22GW of electricity, meeting nearly
50% of the country’s midday electricity needs.
The 50% peak is only 3% of the total annual generation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Germany_Electricity_Generation_5-25-26-2012.png
2008 per minute electricity consumption
0
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Time of day
Wat
ts19/05/2008
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12/06/2008
Inglewood high school
Summary – Solar PV
• Commercial: Match clients demand profile to PV generation profile to minimise units sold to the grid. Return typically in the range 8-10%.
• Domestic: Locate the right client match, ask why the client wants to install solar PV? Return typically in the range 3-5%.
Small Wind – Economics killed by solar PV
Small Hydro – Still the most cost effective on good sites
Enough talk – let’s hook up a solar PV system
"I’d put my money on the Sun and Solar Energy, what a source of Power! I hope we don’t have to wait until oil
and coal run out, before we tackle that.”
-Thomas Edison
Questions