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Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop Richard Waycott President & CEO Almond Board of California

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Page 1: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop

Richard Waycott

President & CEO Almond Board of California

Page 2: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

THANK YOU

Page 3: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Workshop Agenda

• Dr. Karen Klonsky – Grower Costs • John Talbot – Driving Demand means Better

Grower Returns • Bill Harp – Industry Profitability for a

Sustainable Future

Page 4: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Cost of Production Increases in Almond Production

Dr. Karen Klonsky

Specialist in Cooperative Extension Dept. of Agricultural and Resource Economics

University of California - Davis

Page 5: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

CA Almond Production Costs and US Agriculture Cost Trends

Various cost and return studies from UCCE http://coststudies.ucdavis.edu National Agricultural Statistic Service, USDA. Agricultural Prices CA Chapter of the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers. Trends in Land and Lease Values

Page 6: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Market Outlook

“The trend of almond production in California has been upward due to increased plantings. Imports of almonds and competition of other nuts are factors which influence CA almond prices. Present acreage appears to be sufficient to fulfill market needs. Therefore, caution should be exercised in making new plantings.”

Guess the year?

Page 7: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Market Outlook 1950

“The trend of almond production in California has been upward due to increased plantings. Imports of almonds and competition of other nuts are factors which influence CA almond prices. Present acreage appears to be sufficient to fulfill market needs. Therefore, caution should be exercised in making new plantings.”

Page 8: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Historic Cost and Return Studies San Joaquin Valley North

1938 1950 Yield range (lbs./acre) 200 – 2,000 1,100 – 2,000 Expected yield 1,400 1,500 Labor rate ($/hour) $.30 $.85 Labor cost ($/acre) $54 $139 Water $4.50 (18 inches) $4.00 (30 inches) Materials $23 $34 Cash overhead $9 $21 Depreciation and interest @5% $39 $54 Total cost per acre $127 $247 Land value per acre $200 $350 Trees per acre value (30 yr. life) $300 $150

Page 9: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Costs per Acre to Produce Almonds

San Joaquin Valley 2013- $4,195

Non-Cash Overhead

7%

Land 17%

Trees 9%

Cash Overhead

10%

Harvest 8% Labor

9%

Custom 5%

Fuel 3% Water 3%

Materials 21%

Pollination 8%

Other 35%

Page 10: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013

CustomPollinationMaterialsFuelLaborHarvestWaterCash OverheadTreesLandNon-Cash Overhead

2,164 2,091 2,189

2,894 2,865

3,717 3,975

4,195

Page 11: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Pollination Per Acre

24 60 60

100 113

250 280

340

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013

$ pe

r Acr

e

Page 12: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Quantity of Hives/Cost

YEAR # Of Hives COST PER HIVE

TOTAL COST

2013 2 170 340 2011 2 140 280 2006 2 125 250 2002 2.5 45.2 113 1998 2.5 40 100 1992 2 30 60 1989 2 25 50 1986 2 25 50 1980 2 12 24

Page 13: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Fertilizer and Pesticide Cost Per Acre

304 396

292

508 432

546

673

867

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013

$ pe

r Acr

e

Page 14: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Water Cost Per Acre

22

75

149

92 101

205

151 151

0

50

100

150

200

250

1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013

$ pe

r Acr

e

Page 15: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Fuel Cost per Acre

79

55 55 53 56

78

105

142

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013

$ pe

r Acr

e

Page 16: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Labor Cost per Acre

106

293

242

333 292

333

386 388

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013

$ pe

r Acr

e

Page 17: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Harvest Cost per Acre

220 223

335

286

332

284

345 345

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013

$ pe

r Acr

e

Page 18: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Almond Price per Pound

2.48 2.08

1.56 1.41

0.86 0.97 0.91 1.11

1.57

2.21

2.81

2.06 1.75

1.45 1.65 1.75

1.99

2.58

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3Price per Pound

Source: NASS 2012 California Acreage Report

Page 19: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Revenue & Cost per Acre

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013

Operating CostTotal CostRevenue

Page 20: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Price & Cost per Pound

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013

pricetotal costoperating cost

Page 21: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Prices Paid by US Farmers

(various time periods)

Page 22: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Prime Interest Rate

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Source: Federal Reserve Board

Page 23: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Diesel Prices CA and US

050

100150200250300350400450500

Jan-96

Jan-97

Jan-98

Jan-99

Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Cen

ts p

er g

allo

n California

US

Source: US Energy Information Administration. www.eia.gov

Page 24: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Indexes of prices paid by US farmers 1990-1992 = 100

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

Pesticides

Fuels Machinery

Fertilizer

Source: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1002

*

Page 25: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Indexes of prices paid by US farmers 1990-1992 = 100

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Farm machinery

Autos and trucks

Building materials

Source: National Agricultural Statistical Service, USDA

Page 26: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Indexes of prices paid by US farmers 1990-1992 = 100

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

Farm labor wages Family living expenses

Pesticides

Source: NASS Agricultural Prices http://www.nass.usda.gov/publications Source: National Agricultural Statistical Service, USDA

Page 27: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Workman’s Compensation RateFruit Orchards

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2008 2010 2012

18.53

15.04 14.9316.36 15.8514.70

15.18

18.3917.08

20.23

27.48

18.75 19.68

15.6214.47

17.46

20.43

18.0519.55

$/Per $100 in Payroll

Source: State Fund Base Rate January 1

Page 28: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Almond Orchard Values- Merced

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

$ pe

r Acr

e

Source: “Trends in Agricultural Land & Lease Values” CA Chapter, American Society of Farm Managers & Rural Appraisers

Page 29: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Almond Orchard Values- Stanislaus MID & TID

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

$ pe

r Acr

e

Source: “Trends in Agricultural Land & Lease Values” CA Chapter, American Society of Farm Managers & Rural Appraisers

Page 30: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Costs per Acre to Produce Almonds

San Joaquin Valley 2013- $4,540

Non-Cash Overhead

6%

Land 16%

Trees 8%

Cash Overhead

9%

Harvest 8%

Labor 9%

Custom 12% Fuel

3% Water 3%

Materials 19%

Pollination 7%

Other 32%

Page 31: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

ADVERTISEMENT

Cost and return studies for California commodities are available for downloading at :

http://coststudies.ucdavis.edu

Page 32: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Economic Update: Financial Modeling

Workshop John Talbot Vice President,

Global Market Development (ABC)

Page 33: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Factors That Influence Demand

• Historical Perspective

• Measuring Success

• Changing Market Dynamics

Page 34: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

How Do We Measure Demand?

• Demand is not simply a function of shipments, or even consumption. Demand is a consumer's willingness and desire to pay a price for a specific product

• For our purposes, the best way to look at demand is as a function of selling a certain volume at a certain price

• Therefore:

Demand = Shipments X Farm Price = Grower Revenue

Note: This is more accurately a reflection of trade demand

Page 35: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Shipments

Revenue

Farm Price

Ship

men

ts (M

lbs)

R

even

ue* (

$M)

Farm

Pric

e

• With awareness of health benefits, almond use as a snack grows • As a snack, almonds have greater upside growth potential in volume and price

With Advent of Health Positioning Demand Growth Accelerates

Page 36: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Shipments

Revenue

Farm Price

Ship

men

ts (M

lbs)

R

even

ue* (

$M)

Farm

Pric

e

• Demand pulls us through short crop correction cycles • Past 10 years are evidence of strong demand growth

Rising Price Indicates Strong Demand

Page 37: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

1. Equilibrium growth where supply, demand and pricing all gradually increase

2. One or more years of short crop 3. Market reacts (sometimes over-

reacts) and price goes up 4. Profit goes up 5. Growers invest in additional

planting 6. As crop rebounds price begins

to decline 7. Supply increases further as new

plantings mature 8. Ongoing demand growth

enables price to begin rising

Equilibrium Growth

Short Crop

Price Increase

Profit Rises

Additional Planting

Price Decline

Supply Increase

Demand Drives

Price Up

Demand Growth Fuels the Cycle

1.

The Short Crop Correction Cycle

Page 38: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Shipments

Revenue

Farm Price

Ship

men

ts (M

lbs)

R

even

ue* (

$M)

Farm

Pric

e

• Demand pulls us through short crop correction cycles • Past 10 years are evidence of strong demand growth

Rising Price + Increased Supply = Optimal Growth

Page 39: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Shipments

Revenue

Farm Price

Ship

men

ts (M

lbs)

G

row

er R

even

ue* (

$M)

Farm

Pric

e

* Grower Revenue = Shipments X Farm Price

• Increased supply + rising price = strong demand = record grower revenue

Grower Revenue Quadruples in Last 10 Years

Page 40: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Measuring Success

Page 41: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Several significant econometric studies have been conducted on the Almond Industry in the past that have shown strong returns on grower investment:

• ROI Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Crespi and Sexton - 2001

Objective: Evaluation of the economic impact of advertising and promotion spending in the US market

Results: Promoting almonds has returned growers a 7:1 ratio for every dollar spent

• ROI Analysis, Naval Postgraduate School, Gates – June 2004 Objective: Analyze links between marketing investments by ABC to Attitude, Awareness and

Usage measurements and eventually to almond shipping and pricing data. Results: The AAU factors of awareness, liking and health perceptions have a statistically

significant relationship to almond usage

Historical ROI Analysis

Page 42: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

ABC Marketing $ Per Capita Consumption Shipments AwarenessAlmond Liking Health Perceptions Purchases Per Month

Index

US Marketing Metrics

Page 43: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

ABC Marketing $ Per Capita Consumption Shipments AwarenessAlmond Liking Health Perceptions Purchases Per Month

Index

Baseline ABC Spending $8M

US Marketing Metrics

Page 44: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

ABC Marketing $ Per Capita Consumption Shipments AwarenessAlmond Liking Health Perceptions Purchases Per Month

Index

US Marketing Metrics

Page 45: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

ABC Marketing $ Per Capita Consumption Shipments AwarenessAlmond Liking Health Perceptions Purchases Per Month

Index

US Marketing Metrics

Page 46: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

ABC Marketing $ Per Capita Consumption Shipments AwarenessAlmond Liking Health Perceptions Purchases Per Month

Index

US Marketing Metrics

Page 47: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

ABC Marketing $ Per Capita Consumption Shipments AwarenessAlmond Liking Health Perceptions Purchases Per Month

Index

US Marketing Metrics

Page 48: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

ABC Marketing $ Per Capita Consumption Shipments AwarenessAlmond Liking Health Perceptions Purchases Per Month

Index

US Marketing Metrics

Page 49: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

ABC Marketing $ Per Capita Consumption Shipments AwarenessAlmond Liking Health Perceptions Purchases Per Month

Index

US Marketing Metrics

Page 50: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

North America EU3 China India S. Korea

Opportunity Assessment X X X X X

Positioning/Segmentation analysis X X X X X

Shipment and trans-shipment analysis X X X X X

Per capita consumption X X X X X

Attitudes, Awareness and Usage X X X X X

Advertising Effectiveness X X X X n/a

Retail Sales Volume and Value X X Unavailable Unavailable In Consideration

New CPG Product Introductions X X X X X

US menu trends X n/a n/a n/a n/a

ABC uses a variety of analytical tools to assess opportunities and barriers, measure program success, market performance, and consumer demand

ABC Uses Rigorous Program Analysis Approach

Page 51: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Future Growth • 80% expected to come from US, China and India • 70% expected to be in Snacking category

588

208

125 121

46 45 44 26 24 0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

USA China India Germany Korea Russia Canada UK France

Established Markets Emerging Markets +7.1% CAGR* +17.0% CAGR* M

illio

ns P

ound

s

* 2010 to 2013 compound average growth

Size/Growth of Target Markets

Page 52: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

New Market Dynamics – What is Changing?

Page 54: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Lots of Interest in Healthy Snacking

Page 55: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Global Product Launches with Healthy Positioning

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Protein Snacks

Fruit Snacks

Veggie Snacks

Yogurt Snacks

Gluten Free Snacks

Products With Healthy Positioning on the Rise

Page 56: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

The healthy snacking category is highly competitive with heavy advertising spending by large CPG brands

Notes: Almond Board of California reported as Nielsen reported estimated spending for 2012. Source: Nielsen AdViews 2012.

AdViews estimated advertising spend by brand/product

Total 2012 $USD

Chobani Yogurt and Chobani champions $44 million

Sun Chips $20 million

Chex Mix Snacks $15 million

Kashi TLC granola bars $27 million

Nature Valley bars – oat and dark chocolate $20 million

Aggressive Spending Targeted at Our Consumers

Page 57: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

The humble chickpea is having a heyday as demand for hummus sky rockets

• Background: Long a staple of Middle Eastern cuisine, hummus is earning a growing following among Americans seeking more-healthful snacks. The chickpea dip is low in fat and high in protein.

• Investment: Sabra who has increased revenue from $16 million to $800 million in just six years invests heavily in advertising, PR and innovation.

• Results: IRI Sales show "refrigerated flavored spreads"—a segment dominated by hummus—totaled $530 million at U.S. food retailers last year, up 11% from a year earlier and a 25% jump over 2010

• Return to grower: Growing demand for hummus has pushed up prices for chickpeas, spurring farmers in the heart of tobacco country to increase production. The average price that farmers received for chickpeas was 35 cents a pound last year, a 40% increase in the last 5 years.

Case Study: Hummus

Page 58: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Established Markets

Emerging Markets

Almonds are developing a strong global presence in an increasingly dynamic global marketplace with extensive cultural, trade and regulatory differences

NORTH AMERICA Canada U.S.

EUROPE UK, France, Germany

ASIA China, India, S. Korea

SOUTH AMERICA Brazil

Exploratory Markets

Global Marketplace

Page 59: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

• ABC’s health positioning and consumer marketing efforts have had a significant impact on growing almond demand

• Not every detail of every market can be measured but overall there is a positive ROI for our marketing investment

• We have a model and approach to growing demand that is working

• Our market is becoming more competitive and the challenges more complex

HOWEVER,

Conclusions – The Approach is Working

Page 60: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Economic Update: Economics of

Growing Almonds

Bill Harp Almond Grower

Page 61: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

CYs 2010 – 2012: Grower Return all Regions by Bill Harp, an Almond Grower

CY 2010 CY 2011 CY 2012 Average

Yield Per Acre 2,200 2,658 2,385 2,414 Bearing Acres 740,000 760,000 790,000 763,333 Total Reported Production 1,628,192,255 2,020,387,592 1,884,028,757 1,844,202,868

Total Paid Weight: 1,610,062,409 1,979,975,964 1,847,507,894 1,812,515,422

Total Paid Weight/Acre: 2,176 2,605 2,339 2,373

Grower Price/Lb: $1.79 $1.99 $2.58 $2.12

Paid Grower Revenue/Acre: $3,895 $5,184 $6,035 $5,038

Growing Costs/Acre per UC Davis Studies: $2,543 $2,675 $3,021 $2,746

Net Estimated Grower Cost: $2,543 $2,675 $3,021 $2,746

Net Grower Return/Acre: $1,352 $2,509 $3,014 $2,291

Grower Return for Entire State

Page 62: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Non-Cash Overhead

6%

Land 16%

Trees 8%

Cash Overhead 9%

Harvest 8% Labor

9% Fuel 3%

Materials 22%

Pollination 7%

Custom 12%

Other 44%

Standard Cultural Costs at 76% of $3,975 = $3,021

Costs per Acre to Produce Almonds San Joaquin Valley 2012- $3,975

From Dr. Karen Klonsky’s (of UC Davis) presentation on almond costs trends

Page 63: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013

CustomPollinationMaterialsFuelLaborHarvestCash OverheadTreesLandNon-Cash Overhead

2,164 2,091

2,189

2,894 2,865

3,717

3,975

4,540

Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds

From Dr. Karen Klonsky’s (of UC Davis) presentation on almond costs trends

Page 64: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Almond Grower ROA Definition

• The yearly return of one bearing acre divided by the market value of one bearing acre

Grower Return $

Market Value $

Grower Return = Revenue - Cost

$2,291

$23,000 9.96%

Average CY 2010-2012 ROA

Page 65: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Almond Grower ROA Target Range

• Almond Grower ROA Target Range1

– 10-20% Yearly Return on Assets (excluding asset appreciation) – Only 5-10% ROA after taxes, so reasonable – Supported by the expectations of other growers’ knowledge of

the risks associated with Almonds Orchards based on at least a 20-25 year life

1. Grower’s Perspective: As an independent California Almond Grower and Investor, my opinion of an acceptable (“fair and reasonable”) Almond Grower ROA is as follows.

Page 66: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Projection of Bearing Acreage Increase based Known & Estimated Plantings and Removals

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Actual

Forecasted Bearing Acres 760,000 780,000 794,797 803,733 844,733 885,733 926,733

Acres Planted 3 years prior: (as originally Reported) 22,832 18,623 14,960 35,000 35,000 35,000

Adj. Planted Acreage: 60% more than Orig. Reported 36,696 29,797 23,936 56,000 56,000 56,000

Expected Removals (average of 2004-2011) 16,696 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000

Net Increase in Bearing Acres (estimated) vs prior year: 20,000 14,797 8,936 41,000 41,000 41,000

Acres Planted and are Standing as of 2011 that are more than 20 years old (1990 or earlier planting): 110,337 Acres Planted and are Standing as of 2011 that are more than 17 to 20 years old (1991-1993 plantings): 38,584

Average Net Increase in Bearing Acres 2004-2012: 26,250 acresLargest Net Increase in Bearing Acres from one crop year to the next: 40,000 acres (In 2008 & 2009 Crop Years).

Projected Bearing Acres 2012 - 2017

Estimated PlantingsAlready Reported Plantings

Page 67: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

810,000

831,464

849,890

871,905

740,000

760,000

780,000

800,000

820,000

840,000

860,000

880,000

900,000

920,000

FY 13/14 FY14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17

BEARING ACREAGE PROJECTIONS

Opinion IOpinion IIOpinion IIIABC PROJECTIONAVG PROJECTION

Compared to 926,733

Comparison to previous Projections

Almond Bearing Acreage Projections CY 2013/2014 – 2016/2017 - Almond Board Staff

Page 68: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

California Almond Demand History

Period whenTarget ROA

3 Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 Year Achieved

'09-'11 '07-'11 '02 - '11 '97 - '11 '04 - '07

Actual Demand GrowthDomestic 10.2% 8.4% 9.0% 10.0% 4.8%Export 12.1% 14.7% 9.5% 9.2% 8.2%

Total 11.5% 12.7% 9.3% 9.3% 7.0%

Recent Crop Year Demand Growth Averages

Actual 2012 Crop Year Shipment Growth = -1.7% Actual 2011 Crop Year Demand Growth = 13.9%

Page 69: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

It Appears Future Demand/Shipment Growth will be Restricted by Acreage Growth

UnrestrictedConservative

2,400 2,500 2,600 2,700 Demand Growth

Projected Demand GrowthDomestic 1.8% 2.6% 3.3% 4.1% 6.5%Export 2.5% 3.3% 4.1% 4.9% 6.3%

Total 2.0% 2.8% 3.6% 4.3% 6.3%(6.3% CAGR)

= Demand Growth Forecast based on Research & Recent History = Actual Avg. 2008 - 2010 = Deloitte 2011 Study = Assumes Industry must carry-out 13% of Total Supply each year.

2012 - 2017 Demand Growth based on Projected Bearing Acres

Acres @ Random Yield/Acre Averages 2012 - 2017Restricted Growth Based on Projected Bearing

Page 70: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Acreage Restricted Supply (Available to Ship) vs. Conservative Unrestricted Demand Growth @ 6.3% CAGR

1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000 2,100 2,200 2,300 2,400 2,500 2,600 2,700 2,800

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Poun

ds (

in 0

00’s)

Crop Year

Demand @ 2,400 @ 2,500 @ 2,600 @2,700

Actual Forecast

Available Supply at Yield/Acre Scenario

Acreage Restricted Supply = Net Edible Production + carry-in supply – (less: required carryout supply) Required carryout = 13% of Total Supply for a given CY.

2012 Shipments 1.87 Billion pounds

Page 71: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

1,809

1,935

1,978

2,030

2,109

2,188

2,267

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

FY 13/14 FY14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17 FY 17/18 FY 18/19 FY 19/20

PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS

Opinion I Opinion II Opinion IIIABC PROJECTION AVG PROJECTION

Almond Production Projections (millions of net pounds)

CY 2013/2014 – 2019/2020

Compared to 1,898 MM #s in previous graph

Page 72: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Almond Production Projections with Drought Implications (millions of net pounds) CY 2013/2014 – 2016/2017

1,813

1,925 1,925

1,987

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

FY 13/14 FY14/15 FY 15/16 FY 16/17

PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS W/DROUGHT IMPLICATIONS

ABC PROJECTION

AVG PROJECTION

Opinion I

Opinion II

Opinion III

Page 73: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

2.48

2.08

1.56 1.41

0.86 0.97 0.91 1.11

1.57

2.21

2.81

2.06

1.75 1.45

1.65 1.75 1.99

2.58

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3Price per Pound

2013 ???

Almond Price per Pound

Source: NASS 2010 California Acreage Report

Page 74: Economic Update: Financial Modeling Workshop...Cost per Acre to Produce Almonds 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1986 1992 1998 2002 2006 2011 2013 Custom Pollination

Outlook for 2013-2017 • Optimism for Grower Returns for 2013-20171:

– 10-20% Grower ROAs are possible with projected almond supply and demand fundamentals, but costs are higher and “break-even” price per pound is higher

– Growers need to stay informed, aware, and involved to support our capable

Almond Handlers and they need to know their costs

– Growers should review monthly information and reports from the Almond Board, they should understand how the Almond Board staff/marketing committee programs operate to build the type of demand that contributes to higher prices levels which are needed to achieve adequate ROA

– Growers should research and study Almond Market Dynamics and apply principles to practice on a regular basis

– Supply Management is the new “Reserve” as long as demand is strong

1. Grower’s Perspective: As an independent California Almond Grower and Investor,