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Economic Uncertainty and Fertility in Europe
EU-FER
Daniele Vignoli
Università degli Studi di Firenze
Total Fertility Rate 2000-2013
The Great Recession in Europe
EU-FER 2/11
Source: Eurostat data
Beginning of
Great Recession
1,00
1,20
1,40
1,60
1,80
2,00
2,20
Nordic Europe
Western Europe, UK, IE
European Union (27 countries)
German-speaking
Central and Eastern Europe
Southern Europe
Gaps in Knowledge and Objective
The economic uncertainty–fertility nexus is far from being understood
• theoretical premises weak
• empirical findings contradictory
• most of our empirical knowledge reflects the pre-crisis era
EU-FER AIM: To generate new knowledge on if, how, and under what
circumstances economic uncertainty matters for fertility in
Europe, adopting a cross-country comparative approach
EU-FER 3/11
Meta-Analysis of European
Research Findings
High external
validity
Cross-Country Controlled
Laboratory Experimentation
High internal
validity
Micro-Level Longitudinal
Research
High external
validity
EU-FER 4/11
Methodology: Towards Convergent Validity
Meta-Analysis of Previous Research
• Quantitative assessment of the effect of interest across
several research works
• A meta-analysis on the topic will allow us to evaluate:
how much previous findings depend on the definition and
measurement of uncertainty
whether the link between economic uncertainty and fertility
varies across space and has changed over time
EU-FER 5/11
Laboratory Experimentation
Group 1: Manipulation of conditions
of uncertainty (e.g., mock newspaper
stories and media clips)
Group 2: Control
Colors symbolize any
differentiating attribute
among the individuals
(e.g., person-specific
risk aversion)
Random
assignment
EU-FER 6/11
Outcome variable: Fertility intentions
Cross-Country Laboratory Experimentation
EU-FER 7/11
Preliminary agreements have been established
with fully functioning labs in:
• Italy
• France
• Germany
• Poland
• Sweden
• UK
Micro-Level Longitudinal Research
• The nature: Which uncertainty matters?
• The time: “Uncertainty” or “persistent uncertainty”?
• The couple: Are there gender-specific effects of uncertainty on fertility?
• The macro-micro interaction: What is the impact of the Great
Recession on fertility?
Methods and data: application of appropriate statistical methods to very
recent data sources (e.g., GGP; EU-SILC; long panels such as G-SOEP
or Understanding Societies)
EU-FER 8/11
Project Impact
• New theoretical and empirical insights about how economic
uncertainty affects fertility derived from both observationally and
experimentally based evidence
• To set the stage for a new development in family demography
by demonstrating the potential of a laboratory experimentation study
EU-FER 9/11
Sample of Publications
On economic uncertainty and family dynamics:
Vignoli, Tocchioni, Salvini (2016) Uncertain Lives. Insights into the role of job precariousness in union
formation, Demographic Research 35: 253-282
Vignoli, Rinesi, Mussino (2013) A Home to Plan the First Child? Fertility Intentions and Housing Conditions in
Italy, Population, Space and Place 19: 60-71
Vignoli, Drefahl, De Santis (2012) Whose job instability affects the likelihood of becoming a parent in Italy? A tale of two
partners, Demographic Research 26: 41-62
On meta-analysis in family demography:
Matysiak, Styrc, Vignoli* (2014) The Educational Gradient in Marital Disruption: A Meta-analysis of European Research
Findings, Population Studies 68: 197-215
Matysiak, Vignoli* (2008) Fertility and women‟s employment: A meta-analysis, European Journal of Population 24: 363-
384
On fertility intentions and fertility intention/realization nexus:
Mencarini, Vignoli, Gottard (2015) Fertility intentions and outcomes. Implementing the Theory of Planned Behavior with
graphical models, Advances in Life Course Research 23: 14-28
Regniér-Loilier, Vignoli* (2011) Fertility Intentions and Obstacles to their Realization in France and Italy, Population-E
66: 361-390
On modelling fertility and labour market careers:
Gottard, Mattei, Vignoli* (2015) The relationship between education and fertility in the presence of a time-varying frailty
component, Journal of Royal Statistical Society A 178: 863-881
Matysiak, Vignoli* (2013) Diverse Effects of Women‟s Employment on Fertility: Insights From Italy and
Poland, European Journal of Population 29: 273-302
* Names listed in alphabetical order
EU-FER 10/11
The proportion of research articles employing experimental design in top-ranked journals in economics, political science, and sociology (three-year
moving average). Abbreviations: AER, American Economic Review; ECON, Econometrica; AJPS, American Journal of Political Science; APSR, American
Political Science Review, AJS, American Journal of Sociology; ASR, American Sociological Review.
Source: Jackson and Cox 2013
EU-FER 11/11
An Innovation in Demographic Research
EU-FER
Economic Uncertainty and Fertility in Europe
Daniele Vignoli
Università degli Studi di Firenze
Advisory Board
Name Affiliation Discipline
Dr. Prof. Hans-Peter Blossfeld European University Institute Sociologist
Dr. Prof. Fabrizia Mealli University of Florence Econometrician and Statistician
Dr. Prof. Sven Steinmo European University InstituteExperimental Political
Economist
Interdisciplinarity: Research team needs to draw on insights from demography, sociology, social psychology, economics, statistics
Theory of Planned Behaviours
Theory of Planned Behaviours
Source: Mencarini, Vignoli, Gottard (2014). Advances in Life Course Research.
EU-FER Team
• Post-doc 1: he/she will work on the realization of lab experiments
(i.e. production of the experimental protocol, conduction of
experiments, experimental data analysis, journal articles)
Background: Social Psychology (experimental method)
• Post-doc 2: he/she will be in charge of micro-level research
(i.e. data harmonization and management, statistical
modelling, journal articles)
Background: Sociology or Family Demography
• Post-doc 3: he/she will be mainly responsible of carrying out the
meta-analysis. Then, he/she will collaborate with the other two
post-docs on the statistical and econometric techniques.
Background: Statistics or Econometrics
Experimental Situations
• Two different possibilities:
real situation experiments (based on manipulating the
framing of the real situation as a crisis)
vignette experiments (completely hypothetical situations)
Vignette Study
• In a vignette study all participants will respond to the question
on childbearing intentions being in the same identical
(hypothetical) situation but the treatment of interest
Example: Imagine to be a 30-years old men, living in
a cohabiting couple, …
• Demographic and socio-economic characteristics of
respondents can be controlled for in the statistical analyses
• Risk aversion is the reluctance of a person to prefer an option
with an uncertain payoff rather than another option with a more
certain, but possibly lower, expected payoff
• “Would you describe yourself as someone who tries to avoid risks
or someone who is willing to take risks?”
The question allows a single answer on a scale from 0 to 10.
• Clearly the use of lotteries represents a much more powerful
method to control for person-specific risk aversion compared to a
single question
The Question on “Risk Aversion” in the G-SOEP
• Holt & Laury (2002 – AER): Individuals are generally asked to
decide between two options, one “risky” and one “safe”
• The total number of safe options taken is a measure of the
individual risk aversion
• Generally individuals are classified as “Risk averse”, “Risk
Neutral”, and “Risk prone”
• The fact that participants will be paid off according to how much
they win ensures the credibility of results
How Risk Aversion Measured in the Lab
Lab Experiments Recruitment Strategy
• “…I believe that the growth in the earning power of women during the last
hundred years in developed countries is a major cause of both the large
increase in labor force participation of married women and the decline in
fertility” (Becker 1974).
• “I shall try to show that the motivations underlying the „second transition‟
are clearly different from those supporting the first transition, with individual
autonomy and female emancipation more central to the second than to the
first” (Lesthaeghe 1995: 18).
Female Employment as a Cause of Low Fertility?
“For this group, nothing is lost by
having children because they have no
opportunity to succeed in the
mainstream economy.”
McDonald 2000: 10
• How economic uncertainties relate to fertility depends on the life course
stage a person is in and on the expectations (s)he has with respect to
the future career
• Women with limited labor market prospects might also respond to an
unfavorable labor market situation by having children
“Therefore those in subgroups with
the poorest prospects of successful
careers are more likely to seek
parenthood.”
Friedman et al. 1994: 385
Uncertainty Reduction Framework
The Historical View
Thomas Malthus
(1766-1834)
Hajnal Line TFR in European countries 1960-2000
0
1
2
3
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
France
Denmark
UK
Germany (West)
Italy
Ron Lesthaeghe
Dirk van de Kaa
Source: Council of EuropeSource: Szoltysek (2009) Source: Swedish Statistica Office
Gary Becker
0
1
2
3
4
5
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930
0
25
50
GDP in 1000 SK
TFR
TFR and GDP/per capita, Sweden 1890-1930
Oil Price
ShockOil Price
Shock
Oil Price
Shock
Total Fertility Rate 1900-2000
Great
Depression
Great
DepressionGreat
Depression
Sweden
0
1
2
3
4
5
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
0
1
2
3
4
5
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
0
1
2
3
4
5
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
France Germany
Source: INSEE, Swedish Statistical Office, German Statistical Office, BiB
Note: only West Germany after 1945
The Historical View
Economic Uncertainty and Low Fertility
• Economic uncertainty, unemployment, labor market restructuring
and the fertility decline in Eastern Europee.g. Eberstadt 1994; Witte and Wagner 1995; Ranjan 1999; Kharkarova and Andreev 2000; Kohler
and Kohler 2001; Kohler et al 2002; Perelli-Harris 2008
• Youth unemployment, difficulties to enter the labor market, and
delayed parenthood in Southern Europe
e.g. Adsera 2004; McDonald 2000; De la Rica and Iza 2005; Gonzalez and Jurado-Guerro 2006
• Globalization as a characteristic of contemporary societies – the
class of „precariat“– and driving force of low fertility in Europee.g. Mills 2003; Blossfeld et. al. 2006, 2007; Standing 2011
1,00
1,20
1,40
1,60
1,80
2,00
2,20
Nordic Europe
Western Europe, UK, IE
European Union (27 countries)
Central and Eastern Europe
German-speaking
Southern Europe
Total Fertility Rate 2000-2014
The “Great Recession” in Europe
Source: Eurostat data
Beginning of
Great Recession
Birth Timing: Accelerated Postponment?
Source: Own computations based on Eurostat 2013 & national statistical offices
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44
Change in f
ert
ility
rate
(%
)
2005-8
2008-11
European Union
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44
Change in f
ert
ility
rate
(%
)2005-8
2008-11
SPAIN
Changes in age-specific fertility three years before (2005-8) and three years
into the recession (2008-11)
Micro Evidence: Gaps in Research
1) Individuals differ in the extent to which they feel, tolerate, and react
to, uncertainty
2) Studies mainly relied exclusively on unemployment as an operational
definition of economic uncertainty
3) It may be the persistence in an unstable condition which have the
most severe consequences on fertility decisions
4) Gender- and context-specific explanations have often been
overlooked
5) A failure to control for unobserved individual characteristics leads
to a selection bias of the estimated effects
EU-FER Work Plan
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
Development of detailed project time-schedule
Recruitment of research team
Preparation of the protocol of lab experiments, set up, and participants' recruitment
Acquisition of papers for meta-analysis and construction of meta-sample
Acquisition of data sets and preliminary data management
Conduction of meta-analysis
Conduction of the lab experiments
Data management for the preparation micro-level quantitative analyses
Descriptive analyses
Analysis of laboratory experiments' results
Micro-level research: index construction, model implementation and estimation
Development of working papers
Dissemination of findings through international conferences
Production and dissemination of policy briefs
Finalization of research articles and submission of scientific papers to journals
Final scientific book
Meetings with international collaborators and the Advisory Board
1) on: protocol and set up of the lab experiments
2) on: discussion of the experiment's results and prospects of the project
Open workshops
1) on: state-of-the-art and descriptive findings
2) on: persistency, causality issues, gender, socio-economic and contextual differentials
Final project workshop
PREPARATORY WORK
META-ANALYSIS, LAB EXPERIMENTS AND MICRO-LEVEL RESEARCH
DISSEMINATION AND PUBLICATION
MEETINGS AND WORKSHOPS
1st year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year 5th year
EU-FER Budget
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5Total
(Y1-Y5)
PI 39,238 40,415 41,628 42,877 44,163 208,321
Senior Staff 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 50,000
Post docs 120,000 123,600 127,308 131,127 135,061 637,096
Students
Other
i. Total Direct Costs for Personnel 169,238 174,015 178,936 184,004 189,224 895,417
Travel 15,000 25,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 100,000
Equipment 5000 3000 8,000
Consumables
Publications (incl. Open Access fees) 5,000 9,000 11,000 25,000
Laboratory experiments 270,000 270,000
Other (data and software, meeting costs) 7,000 7,000 3,000 3,000 5,000 25,000
ii. Total Other Direct Costs 27,000 305,000 28,000 32,000 36,000 428,000
196,238 479,015 206,936 216,004 225,224 1,323,417
49,060 119,754 51,734 54,001 56,306 330,854
13,000 7,000 5,000 2,000 8,000 35,000
258,298 605,769 263,670 272,005 289,530 1,689,272
258,298 605,769 263,670 272,005 289,530 1,689,272
Cost Category
Personnel
Other goods
and services
Direct
Costs
A - Total Direct Costs (i + ii)
B - Indirect Costs (overheads) 25% of Direct Costs
C2 - Other direct costs with no overheads
C1 - Subcontracting Costs (No overheads)
Total Costs of project (A + B+ C)
Total Requested EU Contribution
EU-FER Budget
PI
Senior Staff
Postdocs
Students
Lab experiments
Travel
Equipment
Publications, etc.
Other
Overheads
Subcontracting Costs
€ 112 € 120 € 124 € 127 € 126
€ 150
€ 23
€ 23
€ 21 € 24 € 30€ 34
€ 73
€ 36€ 38 € 39
€ 8
€ 2
€ 5 € 2€ 8
€ 0
€ 50
€ 100
€ 150
€ 200
€ 250
€ 300
€ 350
€ 400
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
K e
uro
Subcontracting Costs
Overhead
Other Direct Costs
Laboratory experiments
Personnel