economic trends and forecast data compiled, analyzed and presented by: ryan demien tyler jensen...
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Economic Trends and Forecast
Data compiled, analyzed and presented by:Ryan DemienTyler JensenSally Smith
Presented 26 April 2006Sustainable Air QualityWashington University
Professor R. Husar
Economy Trend Data &Relevance to Sulfur Emissions
• Sulfur emissions are harmful to humans, animals and the environment
• By analyzing economy sectors and their trends sulfur emissions may be reduced
• The economy may be broken up into three main sectors relating to sulfur emissions:
1. Residential / Commercial 2. Industrial 3. Transportation
• Each of the above sectors may be described by sub-sectors
More information can be found on the website of the Bureau of Economic Analysis or, specifically, in the tables for National Income Without Capital Consumption Adjustment by Industry.
Data Sources
• The economic data for each individual sector allows for the calculation of energy and pollution efficiencies per sector.
• The three subsectors are adjusted to account for inflation.
Spending within relative sectors provides an indicator of:
1. Amounts of energy being consumed
2. Where emissions originate
Residential / Commercial Subsector
Res / Com sectors are combined as they share many subsectors that make their connection to the economy and sulfur emissions similar.
This sector includes:
1. Public Utilities2. Wholesale Trade3. Retail trade and automobile services4. Finance, insurance and real estate5. Government6. Services
Industrial Subsector
This sector includes:
1. Agriculture, forestry and fisheries2. Mining3. Contract construction4. Manufacturing (including durable goods
and nondurable goods)5. Public utilities (including electric, gas and
sanitary services)6. Government
This sector involves the production of goods or services summarized under subsectors within private sectors.
Transportation Subsector
This sector includes:
1. Means for transportation such as airports and runways, pipelines, railways, waterways, port, terminals
2. Vehicles such as cars, motorcycles and buses
3. Government4. Services
The transportation sector involves the movement of physical information, people and products.
Trend Data
A brief overview of the distribution within various economic sectors is represented by the following charts.
Each gives a specific representation of economic data collected from 1929 - 2004.
National Income by Sector
Relative Income by Sector
National Income per Capita by Sector
Res / Com Income by Sector
Industrial per Capita Income
Transportation Income by Sector
Economy Trend Data Analysis
The following graphs depict trend analysis performed for 2005 - 2050 based off of economic data provided by the BEA for 1929 - 2004.
Multiple forecasts were made using a number of different methodologies which will be explained with each graph.
National Income by Sector
Res / Com per Capita Income
Wholesale TradeWholesale Trade Income per Capita
1.0
10.0
100.0
1000.0
10000.0
100000.0
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Year
$ p
er
Ca
pit
a
Wholesale Trade Exp. Growth Forecast Projected (Recent)
Retail TradeRetail Trade & Auto Services Income per Capita
1.0
10.0
100.0
1000.0
10000.0
100000.0
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Year
$ p
er C
apit
a
Retail Trade & Auto Services Exp. Growth Forecast
Projected (Recent)
Finance, Insurance and Real Estate
FInance, Insurance and Real Estate Income per Capita
1.010.0
100.01000.0
10000.0100000.0
1000000.0
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Year
$ p
er
Ca
pit
a
Finance, Insurance and Real EstateExp. Growth ForecastProjected (Recent)
ServicesServices Income per Capita
1.0
10.0
100.0
1000.0
10000.0
100000.0
1000000.0
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Year
$ p
er
Ca
pit
a
Services Exp. Growth Forecast
CommunicationsCommunications Income per Capita
1.0
10.0
100.0
1000.0
10000.0
100000.0
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Year
$ p
er
Ca
pit
a
Communications Exp. Growth Forecast
Government (RC)Government (RC) Income per Capita
1.0
10.0
100.0
1000.0
10000.0
100000.0
1000000.0
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Year
$ p
er
Ca
pit
a
Government (RC) Exp. Growth Forecast Projected (Recent)
Industrial per Capita Income
MiningMining
1.0
10.0
100.0
1000.0
10000.0
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Year
$ P
er
Ca
pit
a
Mining Projected Projected (Recent)
ConstructionConstruction
1.0
10.0
100.0
1000.0
10000.0
100000.0
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Year
$ P
er
Ca
pit
a
Contract construction Projected Projected (Recent)
Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries
Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries
1.0
10.0
100.0
1000.0
10000.0
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Year
$ P
er
Ca
pit
a
Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries
Projected
Projected (Linearly)
ManufacturingManufacturing
1.0
10.0
100.0
1000.0
10000.0
100000.0
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Year
$ p
er
Ca
pit
a
Manufacturing Projectedl Projected (Recent)
Electric, Gas and Sanitary Services
Electric, gas, and sanitary services
1.0
10.0
100.0
1000.0
10000.0
100000.0
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Year
$ p
er
Ca
pit
a
Electric, gas, and sanitary servicesProjectedProjected Recent
Government (IN)Governement (IN)
1.0
10.0
100.0
1000.0
10000.0
100000.0
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Year
$ p
er
Ca
pit
a
Gov't (IN) Projected Projected (Recent)
Transportation per Capita Income
TransportationTransportation
1.0
10.0
100.0
1000.0
10000.0
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Year
$ p
er C
apit
a
Transportation TR Projected
Government (TR)Government
1.0
10.0
100.0
1000.0
10000.0
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Year
$ p
er C
apit
a
Gov't (TR) TR Projected Projected (Recent)
Future Work
• Extend analysis – look into projection techniques
• Elaborate on BEA data –used per capita approach, but perhaps there are other approaches
• Causalities – look into why the data resulted the way it did
• Further understand sulfur emissions and its connection to the economy and its connection to energy and emissions
Thank you!
Questions or comments?
Contact information:Ryan Demien | [email protected] Jensen | [email protected] Smith | [email protected]