economic modeling with emission constraints 2007 ... · economic modeling with emission constraints...

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Sunil Talati, President Mandhir Sahni, Senior Energy Analyst PwrSolutions Inc. Economic Modeling with Emission Constraints 2007 PowerWorld Client Conference New Orleans, Louisiana October 25-26, 2007

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Page 1: Economic Modeling with Emission Constraints 2007 ... · Economic Modeling with Emission Constraints 2007 PowerWorld Client Conference New Orleans, Louisiana October 25-26, 2007. 2

Sunil Talati, President Mandhir Sahni, Senior Energy Analyst

PwrSolutions Inc.

Economic Modeling with Emission Constraints2007 PowerWorld Client Conference

New Orleans, LouisianaOctober 25-26, 2007

Page 2: Economic Modeling with Emission Constraints 2007 ... · Economic Modeling with Emission Constraints 2007 PowerWorld Client Conference New Orleans, Louisiana October 25-26, 2007. 2

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OrganizationPowerWorld Applications

Economic Modeling of Emission Constraints

Overview

Our Vision

Development Outline – Proposed Approach

Development Outline - Benefit Matrix

Development Outline – End Product

Economic Assessment Module

Overview

Conceptual Flow Diagram

Bench-Marking Results & Live Demonstration

Page 3: Economic Modeling with Emission Constraints 2007 ... · Economic Modeling with Emission Constraints 2007 PowerWorld Client Conference New Orleans, Louisiana October 25-26, 2007. 2

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PowerWorld ApplicationsStrategic/Economic consulting for transmission & generation planningFuturistic Locational Marginal Pricing (LMP) based studies to asses:– Financial Feasibility of planned generation projects– Price Signals for siting purposes– Decisions on acquisition of Transmission Congestion Rights

(TCR)/Firm Transmission Rights (FTR)

Transmission Assessment Studies – Approximate 200 such studies spanning ERCOT, NYISO, NE-ISO, CAISO, SPP, PJM, WECC & MISO regions conductedMarket Accessibility Studies

Page 4: Economic Modeling with Emission Constraints 2007 ... · Economic Modeling with Emission Constraints 2007 PowerWorld Client Conference New Orleans, Louisiana October 25-26, 2007. 2

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PowerWorld ApplicationsSoftware Capability:

Automated PowerWorld-based power flow & contingency, Available Transfer Capability (ATC), generation interconnection and transmission planning modules

In-house, automated hourly-LMP forecasting software with transmission model & SCOPF in PowerWorld

Performance evaluation of LMP-forecasting module by historical benchmarking for various energy markets , more prominently PJM

Computing Capability:Dedicated in-house parallel processing computing facility for multiple year round analysis

Page 5: Economic Modeling with Emission Constraints 2007 ... · Economic Modeling with Emission Constraints 2007 PowerWorld Client Conference New Orleans, Louisiana October 25-26, 2007. 2

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Economic Modeling of Emission Constraints – Overview

Department of Energy (DOE) – Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR), Phase I awarded under Electricity System Reliability ModelCollaborative effort between PwrSolutions & PowerWorld CorporationIssues development seeks to address:

Quantitative Assessment of impact of new technologies on:• Economic performance of National Grid• Environmental performance of National Grid• Reliability performance of National Grid• Security-related performance of National Grid

Page 6: Economic Modeling with Emission Constraints 2007 ... · Economic Modeling with Emission Constraints 2007 PowerWorld Client Conference New Orleans, Louisiana October 25-26, 2007. 2

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Economic Modeling of Emission Constraints – Our Vision

Phase I ObjectivesConnect/Link model nomenclature for all applicable data

sources – Access to NEMS

Extension of existing integrated model:

– Include emission limits associated with operation of specific units

– Include economic value of emission limits

– Include transient or dynamic transmission interchange

– Include variation of transmission interchange based on LMP

Development of user-friendly Graphical User Interface (GUI)

for non-technical entities

Page 7: Economic Modeling with Emission Constraints 2007 ... · Economic Modeling with Emission Constraints 2007 PowerWorld Client Conference New Orleans, Louisiana October 25-26, 2007. 2

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Development Outline – Proposed ApproachP

roposedW

ork PlanData Directory Integration

Model Integration

Model Updates

Model Extension

Study Specific Modules

Page 8: Economic Modeling with Emission Constraints 2007 ... · Economic Modeling with Emission Constraints 2007 PowerWorld Client Conference New Orleans, Louisiana October 25-26, 2007. 2

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Development Outline – Benefit Matrix

Municipalities

Counties

Cities

Consulting Companies

Large Industrial Customers

Power Marketers

Utility Companies

ISOs / RTOs

State PUCs

Federal Agencies

Reliability Assessment

Module

Security Assessment

Module

Environmental Assessment

Module

Economic Assessment

Module

Page 9: Economic Modeling with Emission Constraints 2007 ... · Economic Modeling with Emission Constraints 2007 PowerWorld Client Conference New Orleans, Louisiana October 25-26, 2007. 2

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Development Outline – End ProductEnd-product envisioned encompasses the following capabilities:

Economic Assessment Module

Environmental Assessment Module

Reliability Assessment Module

Security Assessment Module

Easy to use front-end user interface

Demonstrate performance on PJM market

Obtain comprehensive understanding of NEMS – Model compatibility with NEMS

Page 10: Economic Modeling with Emission Constraints 2007 ... · Economic Modeling with Emission Constraints 2007 PowerWorld Client Conference New Orleans, Louisiana October 25-26, 2007. 2

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Economic Assessment Module - Flow Diagram

Hourly Unit CommitmentCALL

POWERWORLD

LASTHOUR

?

- DISPATCH COST- PLANT O/P- CLOSED/OPEN- BUS# & ID-TIME PERIOD

HOURLY LMPS

NO. YES. BUS LMPGEN LMPZONAL LMP

Transmission Contingency List

Hourly Power Transactions

Hourly Loads ForRelevant Regions

Transmission Model

Forced Outage Information

UC Data in PowerWorld Format

PROCESS TO BE REPEATED FOR ALL HOURS

RUNSCOPF/PRI. LP

O/PRESULTS

IN .txt

Hourly Environmental Data

Page 11: Economic Modeling with Emission Constraints 2007 ... · Economic Modeling with Emission Constraints 2007 PowerWorld Client Conference New Orleans, Louisiana October 25-26, 2007. 2

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Economic Assessment Module – Preliminary Bench-marking

Apr06 Monthly Average LMP

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

Beaver Valley MetEd Western Hub ConeMaugh Three MileIsland

PenElec Homer City

LMP Actual

Backcast

Comparative plot between Actual and Back-cast LMP

values at significant points in PJM system for April 2006

Page 12: Economic Modeling with Emission Constraints 2007 ... · Economic Modeling with Emission Constraints 2007 PowerWorld Client Conference New Orleans, Louisiana October 25-26, 2007. 2

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Hou

rly Un

it Com

mitm

ent

Win

d Resou

rce Integration

Page 13: Economic Modeling with Emission Constraints 2007 ... · Economic Modeling with Emission Constraints 2007 PowerWorld Client Conference New Orleans, Louisiana October 25-26, 2007. 2

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SCO

PF Execu

tion M

odule