Economic Indicators for Florida – An Update

Christopher McCartyUniversity of Florida Survey Research CenterBureau of Economic and Business Research

LEARN Conference, Atlanta, Georgia March 29, 2010

Acknowledgments

• Stan Smith – Bureau of Economic and Business Research

• Amy Baker– Office of Economic and Demographic

Research, The Florida Legislature

• Rebecca Rust– Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation

Indicators

• Consumer confidence

• Employment

• Housing

• Population

Consumer Confidence

What is Consumer Confidence?• Survey-based measure

• Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan – 500 completed RDD telephone interviews– Preliminary release second Friday, final release last Friday

• Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board– Approximately 3,500 completed mail out surveys– Release last Tuesday

Comparison of IndexesUniversity of Michigan Index of

Consumer SentimentConference Board Consumer

Confidence Index

Current Conditions

Overall Buying Conditions Business Conditions in Area

Current Personal Financial Condition Current Job Availability in Area

Future Expectations

Business Conditions Over Next 12 Months Business Conditions in 6 Months

Business Conditions Over Next 5 Years Job Availability in Area in 6 Months

Personal Financial Condition in 12 Months Total Family Income in 6 Months

Comparison of U.S. Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Confidence

Jan-

78

Jan-

80

Jan-

82

Jan-

84

Jan-

86

Jan-

88

Jan-

90

Jan-

92

Jan-

94

Jan-

96

Jan-

98

Jan-

00

Jan-

02

Jan-

04

Jan-

06

Jan-

08

Jan-

10

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

Consumer Sentiment Consumer Confidence

Comparison of Florida and U.S. Consumer Sentiment

Comparison of Florida (UFSRC) to U.S. (Conference Board)

Employment

Long term unemployment(Unemployed but still looking for >26 weeks)

U.S. Florida28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

31.5

37.2

Long term unemployed for 2009 as a percent of total

unemployed

Perc

ent

Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-1033

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

36

38.7

39.8

41.240.9

Long term unemployed by month for U.S. as a percent

of total unemployed

Perc

ent

Housing

• Median prices for Florida peaked at $257,800 in June 2006• Prices have fallen 49 percent from peak and are now $131,300• Previous lower median price was $130,900 in January 2010, then

$128,900 in January 2002

Source: Florida Association of Realtors

Source: Florida Association of Realtors

Median Existing Home Price Change from Peak by Florida MSA

Source: Florida Association of Realtors

Population

Annual Population Change, Florida, 1970-2009

-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

1970-1971

1972-1973

1974-1975

1976-1977

1978-1979

1980-1981

1982-1983

1984-1985

1986-1987

1988-1989

1990-1991

1992-1993

1994-1995

1996-1997

1998-1999

2000-2001

2002-2003

2004-2005

2006-2007

2008-2009

Domestic Migration to and from Florida, 1991 to 2008

-100,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

91-92

92-93

93-94

94-95

95-96

96-97

97-98

98-99

99-00

00-01

01-02

02-03

03-04

04-05

05-06

06-07

07-08

In-MigrantsOut-MigrantsNet Migrants

Can Florida rely on population growth as the main economic driver?

• Why it should– Population growth has always returned in the past– Even if growth is not as robust as it has been, a modest increase

will still be a large increase– The Baby Boomers will still be inclined to move to warmer

climates. Other popular destinations, such as North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona, face similar problems as Florida

• Why it might not– There could be a change in behavior where retirees stay put– Florida has a large supply of single family homes and

condominiums that, along with declining home ownership, may stall growth in construction even if population growth returns

– Other sectors such as agriculture face serious challenges that may put more pressure on already weak economic sectors