economic development perspectives of the area of the elbe/oder chamber union (keo)
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Economic Development Perspectives of the area of the Elbe/Oder Chamber Union (KEO) Dr. Silvia Stiller Brussels 25th June 2013. Agenda Demographic and economic perspectives Trade and Transportation Fields of action. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Economic Development Perspectives of the area of the Elbe/Oder Chamber Union (KEO)
Dr. Silvia Stiller
Brussels25th June 2013
Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) 2
Agenda
▪Demographic and economic perspectives
▪Trade and Transportation
▪Fields of action
Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) 3
KEO: 6 Polish voivodships, 7 German Federal States, region of Lüneburg, 2 Czech districts (kray), Prague
Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) 4
KEO in Europe
37.6 m inhabitants (EU: 502.5 m): 7,5 % of EU population
155.5 inhabitants per km² (EU: 116.4 per km²)
Unemployment rate 9.8 % (EU: 9.6 %)
Employment rate 50.6 % (EU: 53.5 %)
GDP: 720 Mrd. : 5,7 of EU GDP
GDP per capita 19,028 Euro (EU: 25,100 Euro) (as of 2008)
Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) 6
Sectoral structure
Large dispairites within the KEO region
different specialisation patterns: trade potential
For the future a process of structural convergences can be expected; i.e. structural patterns become more similar
Overall trend: Knowledge based structural change
Expansion of service sectors, but services and industries are closely related
Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI)
Preconditions for structural change
Crucial role of qualified person
Investments in research and development as driving forces for structural change and economic growth
Different starting points as to innovation potential
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Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) 11
Income
large income gaps per person between the regions of KEO
German regions and Praha have highest income per capita
Relatively low per capita income in Polish regions
Catching up processes which are expected to go on in the future
But: spatial polarisation, especially between cities and rural areas, might be fostered
Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI)
Catching up process, reduction of income disparities
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Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) 14
Demographic perspectives 2030
overall European trend: ageing and shrinking population
population decline by 6.4% until 2030 in KEO region
rural areas lose population
cities are attractive to immigrants
population decrease influences labour supply and economic potential
Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI)
Trade and transportation
Trade between Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic has developed very dynamically during last decades
GDP growth as driving force for cross border trade
Essential factor: cross border infrastructure and transaction
Trade volume as crucial determinant for traffic in KEO region; trade form KEO members will increase and impact on traffic; high demand
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Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) 20
GDP rises in all three countries: In Poland by 93.8 %, Czech Republic 59.3 %, Germany 32.9 (HWWI forecast)
Export growth for Poland and the Czech Republic of 201.4 % or else 146.5 %
• Export growth for Germany of 92.7 %
• Ports as centres of international trade
Trade perspectives 2030
Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI)
Port locations
Hamburg harbour is one of the biggest European ports and cargo handling develops – like in other regions - very dynamically
Port of Gdansk, outside the region, also trade centre for KEO members
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Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI)
Port locations and accessibilty:Hinterland connections and transport routes
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hinterland connections are competition factors
infrastructural bottlenecks in the hinterland
perspectives of intermodal traffic
heterogenous density of transport routes
regional variation of navigability of inland waterways
Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI)
Fields of action
Supporting knowledge-based structural change
Invesments in research and development, education
Cross-border networ
Ongoing integration of KEO in cross-border international division of labour
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Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI)
Fields of action
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Crucial factors for more intense integration and higher benefits of cross-border relationships
Reduction of transaction cost Expanding transport
infrastructure; specific needs of urban centres
Strengthen potentials of inland waterway transport
Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI)
Contact
Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI)
Dr. Silvia Stiller
Dr. Jan Wedemeier
www.hwwi.org
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