ecoforecasts during the 2014-2017 global coral bleaching …...april 2015 may 2016 noaa coral reef...

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov

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Coral Reef Stakeholders’ Use of NOAA Coral Reef Watch Ecoforecasts During the 2014-2017

Global Coral Bleaching Event

C. Mark Eakin, Gang Liu, Jacqueline L. De La Cour, Erick F. Geiger, William J. Skirving, Scott F. Heron, Denise A. Devotta, Andrea M. Gomez, Benjamin L. Marsh, Kyle Tirak

NOAA Coral Reef Watchhttp://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov


Click to edit Master title styleMost Diverse Marine Ecosystem

Coral reefs cover only 1/10 of 1% of ocean floor …

…but are habitat for over 25% of all marine species


Click to edit Master title styleKey Messages:

• Rising temperatures are causing bleaching, disease, and death of corals

• 2014-17 was the worst bleaching ever

• Climate change is increasing bleaching frequency and intensity and will get worse

• Ecological forecasts from satellite- and climate model-based systems provide the lead time needed for resource managers to act

– Enhanced monitoring

– Reducing local stressors

– Rescuing rare corals



5

zooxanthellae

What is Coral Bleaching?

l Most of corals’ food

comes from

photosynthesis

Sco

tt R

. S

an

tos

Symbiotic

algae



6

What is Coral Bleaching?

l Most of corals’ food

comes from

photosynthesis

Symbiotic

algae

l Corals can

“bleach” due to

stress

l Corals exposed to

high temperatures

and/or high light

become stressed

l Corals eject their

algae; coral

appears “bleached”

zooxanthellae

Sco

tt R

. S

an

tos

l If stress is mild or brief,

corals recover, otherwise

they die


Click to edit Master title style“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal”– IPCC AR5, 2014

10Warmest

Years since 1880NOAA

2016

2015

2017

2018

2014

2010

2013

2005

2009

1998

2019

2014

20152016

20172018


Click to edit Master title styleCoral Reef Watch5-km Satellite-Based Products

Products use a blend of data from geostationary and polar-orbiting satellite SST


Click to edit Master title styleCoral Reef Watch 5 km Satellite-Based

Products – A Decision Support System (DSS)

Coral –

specific

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov

Sea Surface Temperature (SST)

SST Anomaly

Coral Bleaching HotSpot

Degree Heating Week

Bleaching Alert Area

Operational Since 2005



10

Daily Outlooks for a future week from an ensemble member

SST: sea surface temperatureCFS.v2: Climate Forecast System v2

Weekly Outlook for the future week

NOAA Coral Reef Watch

CFS.v2-Based Weekly Outlook

Alert Level 2

WatchWarning

Alert Level 1

90%

60%

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 20


Click to edit Master title styleForecasting Bleaching: 4-Month Bleaching Outlook


Click to edit Master title style3rd Global Bleaching: Last Half of 2014

Hawai‘i

Guam &

Marianas

S.

Florida

Marshall

Islands

NOAA Coral Reef Watch Satellite Coral Bleaching Alert Area15 September 2014

No Stress Watch Warning Alert 1 Alert 2


Click to edit Master title style3rd Global Bleaching: 2015

Hawaiʻi Caribbean

NOAA Coral Reef Watch Annual Maximum Satellite Coral Bleaching Alert Area 2015

Kiribati

Panamá

British Indian

Ocean Territory

Maldives

Southern

Red Sea

PNG and

Solomon

s

Samoas

Fiji




Western India Taiwan Vietnam Marianas KiribatiSeychelles Maldives Philippines New Caledonia Palau French PolynesiaKenya/Tanzania Réunion Thailand Fiji Flower GardensMozambique Mauritius Indonesia Micronesia YucatanMadagascar Maldives Japan Marshall Is. Saba

E. Australia Belize

NOAA Coral Reef Watch Maximum Satellite Coral Bleaching Alert Area 2016




15

Great Barrier Reef Bleaching: 2016

2016

Bleaching

2016

Heat StressHughes et al.

(2017) Global

warming and

recurrent mass

bleaching of

corals.

https://doi:10.103

8/nature21707

29%Mortality


Click to edit Master title styleGreat Barrier Reef: 2016

The lack of fish was an indication that there was “complete ecosystem collapse”

Justin Marshall, Univ. of Queensland

The Guardian 21 July 2016



Southern

Madegascar

1

7

NOAA Coral Reef Watch Annual Maximum Satellite Coral Bleaching Alert Area 2017

GBRSamoas


Niue



18

3rd Global Bleaching: June 2014 - May 2017 Heat Stress


• Longest global bleaching event ever• Over ½ exposed twice (Guam 4 of 5 years)• Most widespread ever, area > Washington State• >2/3 suffered bleaching-level heat stress• Likely most damaging on record


Click to edit Master title styleForecasting Bleaching


Click to edit Master title style2015 4-Month Bleaching Outlook: Hawai’i

20

Outlook from July, 60%


Observed 2015 Maximum Bleaching Alert Area


Click to edit Master title styleEnhanced Monitoring2015 Hawai’i Bleaching – DAR “Bleachapalooza”


Click to edit Master title styleEnhanced Monitoring: Annual Cruises to Jarvis Island

22

Outlook from January 2016, 60%

Outlook from January 2016, 90%


NOAA now conducting annual cruises



Heron Island

Northern GBR

NSW

• ~ 98% dead• < 2% bleached• < 1% “normal”

April 2015 May 2016

NOAA Coral Reef Ecosystem Program NOAA Coral Reef Ecosystem Program

Jarvis Island

Brainard et al. (2018) BAMS.

Ecological impacts of the

2015/16 El Niño in the central

equatorial Pacific

Jarvis Island


Click to edit Master title styleWhat Can Managers Do?

Thailand

NOAA Coral Reef Watch Maximum Satellite Coral Bleaching Alert Area 2016

Thursday 26 May 2016

Adressing Bleaching Impacts Locally


Click to edit Master title style2. Reduce Local StressorsAdressing Bleaching LocallyLocal managers can:

• Reduce bleaching• Reduce light stress

Small yet economically important effect

Quicksilver Connections


Click to edit Master title styleAdressing Bleaching LocallyLocal managers can:

• Reduce bleaching• Reduce light stress• Cool reefs,

increase mixing Von Herzen et al. 2010, Ocean Sciences Posters

After 24 hours of cooling



Local managers can:

• Reduce bleaching• Reduce light stress

• Cool reefs, increase mixing

• Increase survival• Improve water quality

• Reduce disease prevalence

• Aid recovery• Coral restoration• Encourage recruitment• Protect ecosystem functions (herbivory)

photo from coralrestoration.org

2. Reduce Local StressorsWork Locally to Help Reefs Recover

photo from coralrestoration.org



Local managers can:

• Reduce bleaching• Reduce light stress• Cool reefs,

increase mixing

2. Reduce Local Stressors2. Reduce Local StressorsRadical Environmental Intervention: Scaling Up



Large Scale Environmental Engineering

• Reduce light stress• Cool reefs

Radical Environmental Intervention: Scaling Up


Click to edit Master title styleUS National Academy of Sciences Study: A Research Review of Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs

https://www.nap.edu/catalog/25424/a-decision-framework-for-interventions-to-increase-the-persistence-and-resilience-of-coral-reefsGoogle: “National Academy coral study”

https://www.nap.edu/catalog/25424/a-decision-framework-for-interventions-to-increase-the-persistence-and-resilience-of-coral-reefs


Click to edit Master title style2015 4-Month Bleaching Outlook: Hawai’i

31





Click to edit Master title styleAdressing Bleaching Locally2015 Hawai’i Bleaching – DAR “Ark”


Click to edit Master title styleKey Messages:

• 2014-17 3rd Global Coral Bleaching Event– Worst bleaching and mortality ever

• NOAA CRW’s ability to forecast bleaching enabled resource managers and decision makers to:– Enhance monitoring

– Reduce local stressors

– Rescue rare corals



37

Thank you from the

NOAA Coral Reef Watch Team!!

William Skirving (ReefSense)

Andrea Gomez

(CUNY & NOAA-CREST)

Erick Geiger (CICS-UMD)

Ben Marsh (ReefSense)

Mark Eakin (NOAA/NESDIS)

Rob Warner

(NOAA/NOS)William Hernandez Lopez

(CUNY & NOAA-CREST)

Gang Liu (CICS-UMD)Jacquie De La Cour (CICS-UMD)

Roxana Vasile (ReefSense)

Scott Heron (U. Queensland)

Funding from:


Click to edit Master title styleThank You

Coral Reef Stakeholders’ Use of NOAA Coral Reef Watch Ecoforecasts During the 2014-2017 Global Coral Bleaching Event

C. Mark Eakin, Gang Liu, Jacqueline L. De La Cour, Erick F. Geiger,William J. Skirving, Scott F. Heron, Denise A. Devotta, Andrea M. Gomez, Benjamin L. Marsh, Kyle Tirak


@CoralReefWatch

CoralReefWatch

CoralReefWatch.NOAA.Gov


Click to edit Master title styleBack-to-Back GBR Bleaching

29%Mortality

22%Mortality

Over ½ of GBR

Corals Lost



SST

TimeWeek-0 Week-12

Bleaching threshold

(MMMSST+1ºC)

Maximum Monthly Mean SST

Climatology (MMMSST)

Degree Heating Weeks

( HotSpot value duration )

12 weeks

1°C

b ca d

HotSpots: instantaneous stresscumulative

measure of

thermal stress

intensity and

duration

during the

most-recent

12-week period

≥ 4 DHWs significant coral bleaching is expected

≥ 8 DHWs widespread bleaching and mortality are expected40


Satellite Coral Bleaching Thermal Stress Monitoring



41After D. Wachenfeld, GBRMPA


Click to edit Master title styleFuture Warming

Models show most coral reefs with severe bleaching annually by 2050Reefs at Risk Revisited, 2011

ecoforecasts during the 2014-2017 global coral bleaching …...april 2015 may 2016 noaa coral reef...

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