ecodreams-s: modelling the impact of climate change on milk performance in organic dairy farms in...
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ecoDREAMS-S: Modelling the impact of climate change on milk
performance in organic dairy farms in Spain
Alejandro Ruete, Antoni Velarde, Isabel Blanco-Penedo
Swedish Species Information Centre , Sweden
Animal Welfare Subprogram, IRTA, Catalonia
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Heat stress, why it matters?
• Poor Animal welfare
• Restriction of farm efficiency
– reproductive behaviour & conception (Villagómez et al., 2000)
– Changes in milk quality (Bertocchi et al., 2014)
– Increased mortality risk (Vitali et al., 2009)
Slide 1
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Heat stress - Organic farming, why it matters?
• Organic cows can better capture farm conditions by the interconnection environment-animal health-food quality
Slide 2
• Different breeds under organic management in Spain (select traits that suit better in organic)
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Heat stress - Organic farming, why it matters?
• Matrix of farms with different management practices
– Tactical management: Annual decisions e.g. crop rotation planning,
fertilization planning, herd structure planning
– Operational management: Some farms have permanently outdoors
the cows
• Less metabolically challenged cows ?
• Organic farmers are also own dairy producers!
Slide 3
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The study: heat stress in organic dairy farms in Spain
Introduction
• 35% of the total census of organic dairy farms in Spain.
• Geographical distribution:
– GREEN SPAIN MODEL (Atlantic, Oceanic, continental Mediterranean and mountain climate)
Slide 4
http://www.impro-dairy.eu/
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Data source
• Primary data source (farm visits): welfare assessment (ABM,
resources)
• Cow Test-day milk records retrieved from the Spanish Milk
Recording Scheme (CONAFE) from January 2012 to October
2013
• Meteorological data (for THI index calculation) retrieved
from AEMET (State Meteorological Agency) for the same
period
Slide 5
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EcoDREAMS-Spain: Ecological Dairy cows Response to Environmental And
Management Stress- Spain)
• Empirical modeling
– causality and
– effet sized infered with regressions
• Programming language used: JAGS thrugh R
Slide 6
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• Response variables
– Individual Milk yield
– Individual milk composition (fat, protein)
– Somatic Cell Counts (SCC)
Level N
Farms 26
Parities 2013
Cows 1504
Measurements 15283
EcoDREAMS-Spain
Slide 7
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• Explanatory variables
– Days in lactation (DIM)
– Temperature-humidity index (THI)
– Housing and building conditions (stall type and warm or
outdoor climate)
– Cow genetics
Slide 8
EcoDREAMS-Spain
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MilkYield = γf * DIMβ * e-ρ * DIM + δ * THI OR + logitTHI logitTHI = 1 - (1/ 1+e(-THI + inf))
Model ΔDIC Note
Null 0
Woods 1967 (DIM) 2828
Woods + Farms 2828
Woods + THI 2866 Logit Cr=83
Woods + δTHI 2867 Cr=80, δ (+)
Linear 2802
Linear + δTHI 2925 δ (+)
EcoDREAMS-Spain
Slide 9
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Days in LactationSlide 10
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THI Slide 11
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Further steps and needs
• Environment & Animal Welfare
• Management tools tailored to farm-specific conditions-(identifying the best options for buffering against climatic extremes for the future about animal welfare)
Slide 12
• Take “cow signals”= welfare challenge=predictors • Earlier detection, better prognostic (predictive models)
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Many Thanks for your attention!
Eskerrik asko!!
Acknowledgement: Grant request to Alejandro Ruete