eco 101 ch.12 interest rates, money and inflation(1)

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  • 8/13/2019 ECO 101 Ch.12 Interest Rates, Money and Inflation(1)

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    The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2009

    Ch12. Interest rates, money and inflation

    Dr.Agim Mamuti

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    The McGraw-Hill Companies, 20091

    Money

    Money Any generally accepted means of payment for delivery of goods or

    settlement of debt. It is the medium of exchange.

    Barter economy has no medium of exchange - goods are simply swapped for other

    goods

    Unit of account is the unit in which prices are quoted and accounts are kept

    Store of value Money is available for future purchases.

    Token money

    has a value as money that greatly exceeds its cost of production orvalue in consumption.

    IOU ("I owe you)money is a medium of exchange based on the debt of a private bank.

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    Modern bankingBank reserves

    cash in the bank to meet possible withdrawals by depositorsReserve ratio

    ratio of reserves to deposits.

    Banks assets mainly loans to firms and households, but also financial securities

    such as bills and bonds, issued by governments and firms

    Banks liabilities mainly sight and time deposits

    Sight deposits

    Where a depositor can withdraw money on sight with no notice (suchas cheque accounts)

    Time deposits pay higher interest rates and need a period of notice before

    withdrawing money

    Banks make profits through the interest rate spreadthe amount by

    which interest rates on loans exceed interest rates on deposits

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    Measures of money

    Liquidity is the ease with which an asset canbe turned into money

    The money supply consists of a spectrum ofliquidity: M0 (wide monetary base)= all cash + banks deposits

    with the Bank of England

    M1 = M0 + sight deposits of banks

    M3 = M1 + other bank deposits

    M4 (broad money) = M3 + building society deposits

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    Interest rates and monetary policy

    Central bank

    responsible for:

    printing money

    setting interest rates

    acting as banker to commercial banks and the

    government

    In the UK, the Bank of England fulfils these

    roles

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    Three ways in which the central bank MAYinfluence money supply:

    Reserve requirements

    central bank sets a minimum ratio of cash reserves todeposits that commercial banks must meet

    Discount rate

    the interest rate that the central bank charges when thecommercial banks want to borrow

    setting this at a penalty rate may encourage commercialbanks to hold more excess reserves

    Open market operations

    actions to alter the monetary base by buying or sellingfinancial securities in the open market

    The bank and the money supply

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    Lender of last resort

    The lender of last resort lends to bankswhen financial panic threatens the financialsystem.

    The Bank will therefore always lend to thebanking system if the financial system is underthreat

    this function can be used by the Bank when

    the financial system is not under threat toaffect the money supply

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    The demand for money

    Focus on three determinants of desired money holdings

    interest rates price level

    real income

    Assume that money pays no interest and bonds are all

    the other assets that pay interest How do people split their assets between money and bonds?

    Holding money means not earning interest from holding bondsinstead

    The cost of holding money is the interest given up by holding

    money rather than bonds.

    People hold money only if there is a benefit to offset thiscost

    So what is the benefit?

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    The demand for money

    The demand for money is a demand for real money

    balances M/P.

    Transactions motive

    payments and receipts are not perfectly synchronized:

    so money is held to finance known transactions

    depends upon income and payment arrangements

    Precautionary motive

    because of uncertainty:

    people hold money to meet unforeseen contingencies

    depends upon the (nominal) interest rate

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    The demand for money

    Asset motive

    In deciding in which assets to hold wealth to bespent at some distant date, a wise portfolio ofassets will include

    some high-earning assets such as company shares

    but are potentially risky

    Plus some safer assets with a return that is lower

    on average but less volatile

    Holding some wealth in interest-bearing bankaccounts is part of a well-diversified portfolio

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    In summary, the demand for money

    depends upon the motive for holding money

    people want money for purchases - transactions

    demand

    people want money as a precaution -

    precautionary demand

    people want money to buy assets - asset demand

    The demand for money

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    How much money will

    people hold?

    People will equate the MC and MBof holding moneyE

    Higher prices

    If all prices and wages doublewith interest rates unaltered - MCstays the same

    Real income unaltered so MBschedule is unaffected

    Desired holding of real moneyremains L

    People hold twice as muchnominal money M when prices Pdouble.

    Real income and real money M/Pare unaffected.

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    Money market equilibrium

    Real money holdings

    MD

    Other things being equal,the demand for real moneybalances will be lower when

    the opportunity cost (the rateof interest) is relatively high.

    The position of thisschedule depends uponreal income and the pricelevel.

    When money supply is L0, money market equilibriumoccurs when the rate of interest is at r0.

    L0

    r0

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    Monetary policy

    Interest rates are the instrument of monetarypolicy

    The monetary instrument is the variable over

    which a central bank exercises day-to-day control

    The Bank of England has operationalindependence from government to set interest

    rates But the Chancellor has decided the Banks ultimate

    objective is to set interest rates to try to keep inflationclose to 2 per cent a year

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    InflationThe rate at which the generallevel of prices for goods andservices is rising, and,subsequently, purchasing poweris falling.

    As inflation rises, every dollar will

    buy a smaller percentage of agood. For example, if the inflationrate is 2%, then a $1 pack of gumwill cost $1.02 in a year.

    Most countries' central banks willtry to sustain an inflation rate of2-3%.

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    Committing to low inflation

    Central Bank independence is a usefulcommitment to tight monetary policy and

    low inflation

    Institutional commitment has succeeded in

    keeping inflation in many countries in

    recent years.