eastern region aviation overview fred mcmullen regional aviation meteorologist 631-244-0125...
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Eastern Region Aviation OverviewEastern Region Aviation Overview
Fred McMullen
Regional Aviation Meteorologist
www.erh.noaa.gov
631-244-0125
Fred McMullen
Regional Aviation Meteorologist
www.erh.noaa.gov
631-244-0125
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OrganizationOrganization
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CWSUs
Full Support of NAS
VAACs and
MWOs
WFOs
NCEP/AWC
Eastern Region BreakdownEastern Region Breakdown
Central Weather Service UnitsCentral Weather Service Units
Eastern Region BreakdownEastern Region Breakdown
• 23 Weather Forecast Offices
• 4 Central Weather Service Units
• 133 TAFs four times daily
• 11 Airports are 30 hour TAFs
• Site Specific Amendment Criteria at
– BWI, CLT, DCI, EKN, and IAD
• 23 Weather Forecast Offices
• 4 Central Weather Service Units
• 133 TAFs four times daily
• 11 Airports are 30 hour TAFs
• Site Specific Amendment Criteria at
– BWI, CLT, DCI, EKN, and IAD
Eastern Region BreakdownEastern Region Breakdown
• Airport Weather Warnings issued at 7 locations
– ALY, BOS, BUF, CAE, ILM, MYR, PVD
• Criteria varies from airport to airport:
– Surface wind gusts >40 knots
– Onset of freezing rain
– Cloud to ground lightning within 5 miles of the airport
– Thunderstorms with >½ inch hail
– Onset of heavy snow
• Airport Weather Warnings issued at 7 locations
– ALY, BOS, BUF, CAE, ILM, MYR, PVD
• Criteria varies from airport to airport:
– Surface wind gusts >40 knots
– Onset of freezing rain
– Cloud to ground lightning within 5 miles of the airport
– Thunderstorms with >½ inch hail
– Onset of heavy snow
Regional Aviation DutiesRegional Aviation Duties• Liaison between NWS Headquarters and Weather Forecast
Offices
• Liaison between NWS Headquarters and Central Weather Service Units
• Review feedback between WFOs and Aviation community
• Collaborate with FAA, other NWS Regional Headquarters, and Aviation Weather Center
• Formulate Policy
• Quality Control
• Coordinate Sub-Regional Aviation Workshops
• Facilitate establishment of new TAFs and Airport Weather Warnings
• Improve Aviation Verification Numbers
• Liaison between NWS Headquarters and Weather Forecast Offices
• Liaison between NWS Headquarters and Central Weather Service Units
• Review feedback between WFOs and Aviation community
• Collaborate with FAA, other NWS Regional Headquarters, and Aviation Weather Center
• Formulate Policy
• Quality Control
• Coordinate Sub-Regional Aviation Workshops
• Facilitate establishment of new TAFs and Airport Weather Warnings
• Improve Aviation Verification Numbers
CWSU ImprovementsCWSU Improvements• AWIPS Remote Display (ARD)
• AvnFPS TAF monitoring program
• Chat software
• Web recording software
• Conference calls with WFOs
• Work TAFs
• AWIPS Remote Display (ARD)
• AvnFPS TAF monitoring program
• Chat software
• Web recording software
• Conference calls with WFOs
• Work TAFs
Collaboration = ConsistencyCollaboration = Consistency
• Daily conference calls between CWSU New York, WFOs New York City and Philadelphia.
• Preliminary TAFs generated and collaborated for Dulles and Boston between CWSUs and WFOs.
• CWSU New York and Atlanta daily conference calls with Delta Meteorologists
• Daily conference calls between CWSU New York, WFOs New York City and Philadelphia.
• Preliminary TAFs generated and collaborated for Dulles and Boston between CWSUs and WFOs.
• CWSU New York and Atlanta daily conference calls with Delta Meteorologists
CWSU ZDC – WFO SterlingCWSU ZDC – WFO Sterling
VerificationVerification
• NWS Goals FY 2009
– Probability of Detection (POD) 0.64
– False Alarm Rate (FAR) 0.36
• Eastern Region FY 2008
– POD 0.65
– FAR 0.33
• NWS Goals FY 2009
– Probability of Detection (POD) 0.64
– False Alarm Rate (FAR) 0.36
• Eastern Region FY 2008
– POD 0.65
– FAR 0.33
Albany Aviation On DemandAlbany Aviation On Demand
• Near teal time feedback• Near teal time feedback
Albany Aviation VerificationAlbany Aviation Verification
• Creates historical database
• Six hour verification
• Conduct research on specific events
• Daily backup
• Creates historical database
• Six hour verification
• Conduct research on specific events
• Daily backup
VerificationVerification
FutureFuture
New York City 2040?New York City 2040?
Experimental Digital ServicesExperimental Digital Services• Ceiling Grids• Ceiling Grids
Click HereClick Here
Digital Aviation Forecasts
Digital Aviation Forecasts
Experimental Digital ServicesExperimental Digital Services
Visibility GridsVisibility Grids
Weather Impacted Traffic Index(WITI)
Weather Impacted Traffic Index(WITI)
• CCFP
• TAF
• Metars
• Near real time verification of aviation forecast and impacts
• CCFP
• TAF
• Metars
• Near real time verification of aviation forecast and impacts
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Date
NAS Wx Index (NCWD/METAR), WITI-FA (4-hr Lookahead CCFP/TAF), and their "Delta", Last 30 Days
NWX (WITI)
WITI-FA 4hr
Delta
NAS Weather Index (WITI) vs. Combined WITI-FA and Delta (“forecast goodness”)
Negative delta = Under-forecast of traffic impact
Positive delta = Over-forecast of traffic impact
30-day period ending 11/12/2008
NWX = 100 is a “normally-impacted ” day
Delta > +/-50 may indicate a forecast “issue”
November 12, 2008 21
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Eastern Region TWITI and TWITI_FA, Normalized, Last 7 Days
Delta TWITI_FA
TWITI
TWITI_FA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 0 1 2 3 4 5
AAR
Hour, Z
BOS, Nov 8, 2008 Arrival Rates
Actual arrivals
Arr rate based on METAR
Arr rate based on 4hr TAF
Scheduled arrivals
OEP Airports AnalysisOEP Airports Analysis
Under-forecast at BOS (actual ceilings, 600-700 Ft, lower than forecast ceilings, 1300-1500 Ft) – however, no impact on operations due to low traffic demand on a Sunday
Terminal WITITerminal WITI