eastern idaho officer meeting economic overview...ntl. res. & mining source: utah department of...
TRANSCRIPT
Eastern Idaho Officer Meeting
Economic OverviewNovember 6, 2015
Utah is One of the Fastest Growing
States in the CountryPercent Change in Population for States: 2012 to 2013
U.S. Rate = 0.7%
Source: U.S Census Bureau
Population Loss
NM
0.1%
UT
1.6%
AZ
1.2%
CA
0.9%
NV
1.3%
OR
0.8%
TX
1.5%
OK
0.9%
CO
1.5%
WA
1.1%
ID
1.0%
MT
1.0%
WY
1.0%
ND
3.1%
SD
1.3%
MN
0.8%
NE
0.7%
KS
0.3%
IA
0.5%
MO
0.3%
AR
0.3%
LA
0.5%
WI
0.3%
IL
0.1%IN
0.5%
OH
0.2%
FL
1.2%
TN 0.6%
KY 0.4%
MS
0.2%AL
0.3%
GA
0.8%
SC
1.1%
NC 1.0%
VA
0.9%
WV
-0.1%
PA
0.1%
NY
0.4%
ME
-0.01%
AK
0.7%
HI
1.0%
MA
0.7%
VT
0.1%
NH
0.1%
RI
0.1%
CT
0.1%
NJ
0.4%
DE
0.9%
MD
0.7%
MI
0.1%
.075% to 1.10%
0.5% to 0.9%
DC
2.1%
1.15% or more
0% to 0.4%
KS
0.3%
National Economic Conditions
Utah is One of the Fastest Growing
States in the CountryPercent Change in Population for States: 2012 to 2013
U.S. Rate = 0.7%
Source: U.S Census Bureau
Population Loss
NM
0.1%
UT
1.6%
AZ
1.2%
CA
0.9%
NV
1.3%
OR
0.8%
TX
1.5%
OK
0.9%
CO
1.5%
WA
1.1%
ID
1.0%
MT
1.0%
WY
1.0%
ND
3.1%
SD
1.3%
MN
0.8%
NE
0.7%
KS
0.3%
IA
0.5%
MO
0.3%
AR
0.3%
LA
0.5%
WI
0.3%
IL
0.1%IN
0.5%
OH
0.2%
FL
1.2%
TN 0.6%
KY 0.4%
MS
0.2%AL
0.3%
GA
0.8%
SC
1.1%
NC 1.0%
VA
0.9%
WV
-0.1%
PA
0.1%
NY
0.4%
ME
-0.01%
AK
0.7%
HI
1.0%
MA
0.7%
VT
0.1%
NH
0.1%
RI
0.1%
CT
0.1%
NJ
0.4%
DE
0.9%
MD
0.7%
MI
0.1%
.075% to 1.10%
0.5% to 0.9%
DC
2.1%
1.15% or more
0% to 0.4%
KS
0.3%
How long will interest rates stay so low?...
It’s up to the Fed
National Job Growth Improving
-900
-700
-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
8.7 Million Jobs Lost
11.9 Million
Jobs Recovered
Pa
yro
ll C
ha
ng
e 0
00
’s
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
National Employment Change
0.7%
1.0%
2.9%
2.6%
3.2%
1.8%
1.6%
2.0%
0.9%
3.3%
-11.1%
-13% -11% -9% -7% -5% -3% -1% 1% 3% 5%
Government
Other Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Ed. & Health Serv.
Prof. & Bus. Serv.
Financial Activity
Information
Trade, Trans., Utilities
Manufacturing
Construction
Ntl. Res. & Mining
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Percent Change in National Employment by Industry: Sept 2014 to Sept 2015
Total: 2.0%
National Employment Change
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; Seasonally Adjusted
Total Change in Number of Jobs by Industry in Thousands: Sept 2014 to Sept 2015
149
58
426
568
616
147
44
536
104
205
-101
-200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Government
Other Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Ed. & Health Serv.
Prof. & Bus. Serv.
Financial Activity
Information
Trade, Trans., Utilities
Manufacturing
Construction
Ntl. Res. & Mining
U.S. Unemployment Rates Dropping
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Utah Department of Workforce Services
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
5.1% in Sept
Consumption Drives Growth
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
2012 2013 2014
Fixed Investment
Inventories
Net Exports
Government
Personal Consumption
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n t
o G
DP
Gro
wth
2015
Total GDP Growth
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Consumer Confidence is Rising, but Not Robust
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
Ap
r 2
01
2
Ju
l 2
012
Oct
20
12
Jan
201
3
Ap
r 2
01
3
Ju
l 2
013
Oct
20
13
Jan
201
4
Ap
r 2
01
4
Ju
l 2
014
Oct
20
14
Jan
201
5
Ap
r 2
01
5
Ju
l 2
015
Oct
20
15
Source: U.S. CCI from The Conference Board
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Growth in Consumer Spending Remains Low
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
Personal Consumption Expenditure Yearly Percent Change
U.S. Monthly Wage Growth
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Note: Growth rate calculated using real chained 1982-1984 dollars
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
Ma
y-0
6
Sep
-06
Jan
-07
Ma
y-0
7
Sep
-07
Jan
-08
Ma
y-0
8
Sep
-08
Jan
-09
Ma
y-0
9
Sep
-09
Jan
-10
Ma
y-1
0
Sep
-10
Jan
-11
Ma
y-1
1
Sep
-11
Jan
-12
Ma
y-1
2
Sep
-12
Jan
-13
Ma
y-1
3
Sep
-13
Jan
-14
Ma
y-1
4
Sep
-14
Jan
-15
Ma
y-1
5
Sep
-15
2006-2015
Average
0.00%
Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession
Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession
Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession
Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Underemployment vs. Unemployment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
U-6 (Underemployed) U-3 (Unemployment)
Labor Force Participation Rate Lowest in Over 35 Years
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Note: Seasonally adjusted
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
195
0
195
5
196
0
196
5
197
0
197
5
198
0
198
5
199
0
199
5
200
0
200
5
201
0
201
5
Mar 2000
67.3%
Feb 1978
62.8%
Sept 2015
62.4%
%
Euro compared to U.S. Dollar
$0.80
$0.90
$1.00
$1.10
$1.20
$1.30
$1.40
$1.50
$1.6020
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
USD
PARITY
$1.37
Source: Investing.com
$1.07
US Dollar Compared to Chinese YuanInverted Scale
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
$6.00
$6.50
$7.00
$7.50
$8.00
$8.50
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
2010China allows
the yuanto rise
Aug 2015China
devalues the yuanby largest amount
in 20 years
2001China joins WTO 2005
China allows
the yuanto rise
2008China
stops the yuan’s
rise
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Oil Prices Rising But Still Below Long Term Trend$
Pe
r B
arr
el
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.002
00
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
$108
$40
Source: Baker Hughes
Active U.S. Oil Rigs
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,2002
00
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
1,931
868
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
Effective Fed Rate
12-month change in PCE price index
Unemployment Rate (right axis)
Fed Fund Rate, Inflation, and Unemployment
Sources: U.S. Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Note: PCE is total personal consumption expenditures
$0 $0 $0
Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
4 moves
25 bps
2 moves
25 bps
Median FOMC Forecast
0.25%
1.875%
2015
Federal Funds Rate Outlook
Source: American Bankers Association Analysis of Data from the Federal Reserve
0.625%
2016
Utah is One of the Fastest Growing
States in the CountryPercent Change in Population for States: 2012 to 2013
U.S. Rate = 0.7%
Source: U.S Census Bureau
Population Loss
NM
0.1%
UT
1.6%
AZ
1.2%
CA
0.9%
NV
1.3%
OR
0.8%
TX
1.5%
OK
0.9%
CO
1.5%
WA
1.1%
ID
1.0%
MT
1.0%
WY
1.0%
ND
3.1%
SD
1.3%
MN
0.8%
NE
0.7%
KS
0.3%
IA
0.5%
MO
0.3%
AR
0.3%
LA
0.5%
WI
0.3%
IL
0.1%IN
0.5%
OH
0.2%
FL
1.2%
TN 0.6%
KY 0.4%
MS
0.2%AL
0.3%
GA
0.8%
SC
1.1%
NC 1.0%
VA
0.9%
WV
-0.1%
PA
0.1%
NY
0.4%
ME
-0.01%
AK
0.7%
HI
1.0%
MA
0.7%
VT
0.1%
NH
0.1%
RI
0.1%
CT
0.1%
NJ
0.4%
DE
0.9%
MD
0.7%
MI
0.1%
.075% to 1.10%
0.5% to 0.9%
DC
2.1%
1.15% or more
0% to 0.4%
KS
0.3%
Idaho Economic Conditions
Idaho Population 8th Fastest Growing in U.S.
Percent Change: 2013 to 2014U.S. Rate = 0.7%
Source: U.S Census Bureau
Population Loss
0.7% to 0.9% (at or above U.S. rate)
0.4% to 0.6%
1.0% or more
0.0% to 0.3%
NM
-0.1%
UT
1.4%
AZ
1.5%
CA
1.0%
NV
1.7%
OR
1.1%
TX
1.7%
OK
0.6%
CO
1.6%
WA
1.3%
ID
1.3%
MT
0.9%
WY
0.2%
ND
2.2%
SD
0.9%
MN
0.6%
NE
0.7%
KS
0.3%
IA
0.5%
MO
0.3%
AR
0.3%
LA
0.4%
WI
0.3%
IL
-0.1%IN
0.4%
OH
0.2%
FL
1.5%
TN 0.8%
KY 0.3%
MS
0.1%AL
0.3%
GA
1.0%
SC
1.3%
NC 1.0%
VA
0.7%
WV
-0.2%
PA
0.0%
NY
0.3%
ME
0.1%
AK
-0.1%
HI
0.8%
MA
0.5%
VT
0.0%
NH
0.3%
RI
0.2%
CT
-0.1%
NJ
0.3%
DE
1.1%
MD
0.6%
MI
0.1%
DC
1.5%
KS
0.3%
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,0001
98
1
198
2
198
3
198
4
198
5
198
6
198
7
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population
11,317
9,389
1,634,464
Idaho Population and Components of Change
Source: Zions Bank analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data
To
tal
Po
pu
lati
on
Co
mp
on
en
ts o
f Po
pu
latio
n C
ha
ng
e
Idaho PopulationGrowth Rates
By County2013 to 2014
State Average = 1.3%
Increase of 0.4% to 0.8%
Increase of 0.0% to 0.3%
Increase of 1.4% or Greater
Increase of 0.9% to 1.3%
Population Loss
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Jerome
0.9%
Jefferson
0.6%
Idaho
0.1%
Gooding
-0.2%
Gem
1.0%
Fremont
-0.3%
Franklin
1.3%
Elmore
-0.2%
Custer
-2.2%
Clearwater
-0.5%
Washington
0.7% Clark
0.7%
Valley
2.5%
Cassia
0.8%
Twin Falls
1.3%
Caribou
0.1%
Teton
0.4%Canyon
2.1%
Shoshone
-2.3%
Camas
0.0%
Power
-1.0%
Butte
-0.2%
Payette
1.1%
Boundary
1.0%
Owyhee
-0.6%
Bonneville
1.0%
Bonner
2.2%
Nez Perce
0.2%
Boise
1.2%
Minidoka
0.1%
Blaine
0.8%
Madison
1.2%
Bingham
-0.3%Lincoln
0.2%
Benewah
0.8%
Lewis
0.3%
Bear Lake
0.3%
Lemhi
0.0%
Bannock
0.0%
Latah
0.5%
Adams
0.8%
Kootenai
2.1%
Ada
2.3%
Oneida
-2.0%
Idaho Employment Growth3rd Highest in the Nation
Percent Change in Employment for States: Sep 2014 to Sep 2015U.S. Rate = 2.0%
Note: Seasonally Adjusted
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
NM
0.8%
UT
3.7%
AZ
2.2%
CA
2.8%
NV
2.8%
OR
2.8%
TX
1.9%
OK
0.2%
CO
1.7%
WA
3.1%
ID
3.1%
MT
0.6%
WY
-0.9%
ND
-1.6%
SD
1.6%
MN
1.3%
NE
0.6%
KS
0.6%
IA
1.5%
MO
0.6%
AR
1.9%
LA
0.1%
WI
1.9%
IL
0.5%IN
2.2%
OH
0.9%
FL
3.0%
TN 1.7%
KY1.8%
MS
1.1%
AL
1.6%
GA
2.0%
SC
3.2%
NC 2.6%
VA
1.0%
WV
-1.5%
PA
0.7%
NY
1.4%
ME
1.0%
AK
-0.1%
HI
1.3%
MA
2.0%
VT
0.6%
NH
0.6%
RI
0.6%
CT
1.6%
NJ
1.0%
DE
1.7%
MD
1.7%
MI
2.0%
DC
1.4%
0.9% and below
2.1% to 2.9% (at or above the U.S. rate)
1.6% to 2.0%
3.0% or more
1.0% to 1.5%
Top States for Employment GrowthSep 2014 vs. Sep 2015
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Top 10 Sep 2014 Sep 2015 Ranking
1. North Dakota 50th
2. Texas 15th (tied)
3. Utah 1st
4. Nevada 6th (tied)
5. Delaware 19th (tied)
6. Colorado 19th (tied)
7. Florida 5th
8. North Carolina 9th
9. Oregon 6th (tied)
10. South Carolina 2nd
39. Idaho 3rd (tied)
Idaho Employment at New Highs
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
8001
99
5
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
Th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f J
ob
s
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Loss of 59,000 jobs
Gain of 77,000 jobs
Idaho Job Growth Compared to National Average
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
Year
U.S. Idaho
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Idaho Employment Gains and Losses
Sources: Bureau of Labor Staistics and Idaho Department of Labor, Total Nonfarm Seasonally Adjusted
Percent Change in Idaho Employment by Industry: Sep 2014 – Sep 2015
1.8%
4.8%
1.3%
2.8%
2.9%
4.8%
-2.2%
3.7%
5.0%
9.1%
-7.3%
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10%
Government
Other Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Ed. & Health Serv.
Prof. & Bus. Serv.
Financial Activity
Information
Trade, Trans., Utilities
Manufacturing
Construction
Ntl. Res. & MiningTotal: 3.2%
Idaho Industries Seeing GrowthTotal Change in Idaho Employment by Industry: Sep 2014 – Sep 2015
2,100
1,100
900
2,600
2,300
1,600
-200
4,900
3,000
3,500
-300
-1,500 -500 500 1,500 2,500 3,500 4,500 5,500
Government
Other Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Ed. & Health Serv.
Prof. & Bus. Serv.
Financial Activity
Information
Trade, Trans., Utilities
Manufacturing
Construction
Ntl. Res. & Mining
Total: 21,500
Source: Idaho Department of Labor, Total Nonfarm Seasonally Adjusted
Idaho EmploymentChange Rates
By CountySep 2014 toSep 2015
State Rate = 3.5%
Source: Idaho Department of Labor, Seasonally Adjusted Total Employment
2.0% to 3.4%
0.0% to 1.9%
5.5% or more
3.5% to 5.4%
Below 0.0%
Jefferson
4.0%
Jerome
5.8%
Idaho
2.7%
Gooding
2.5%
Gem
2.6%
Fremont
4.3%
Franklin
1.4%
Elmore
3.4%
Custer
7.6%
Clearwater
-0.2%
Washington
1.2% Clark
18.5%
Valley
6.0%
Cassia
3.2%
Twin Falls
5.8%
Caribou
3.0%
Teton
7.0%Canyon
3.0%
Shoshone
1.0%
Camas
0.0%
Power
-7.0%
Butte
4.8%
Payette
2.6%
Boundary
4.8%
Owyhee
-2.6%
Bonneville
5.6%
Bonner
3.2%
Nez Perce
2.4%
Boise
4.7%
Minidoka
1.9%
Blaine
4.3%
Madison
3.6%
Bingham
1.3%Lincoln
3.6%
Benewah
2.3%
Lewis
1.9%
Bear Lake
1.1%
Lemhi
2.3%
Bannock
12.1%
Latah
5.6%
Adams
5.2%
Kootenai
5.3%
Ada
4.3%
Oneida
3.8%
Idaho Among the Lowest Unemployment Rates in the Country
Sep 2015 U.S. Rate = 5.1% NH
3.4%
NM
6.8%
UT
3.6%
AZ
6.3%
CA
5.9%
NV
6.7%
OR
6.2%
TX
4.2%
OK
4.4%
CO
4.0%
WA
5.2%
ID
4.2%
MT
4.1%
WY
4.0%
ND
2.8%
SD
3.5%
MN
3.8%
NE
2.9%
KS
4.4%
IA
3.6%
MO
5.3%
AR
5.2%
LA
6.0%
WI
4.3%
IL
5.4%IN
4.5%
OH
4.5%
FL
5.2%
TN 5.7%
KY5.0%
MS
6.1%AL
6.0%
GA
5.8%
SC
5.7%
NC 5.8%
VA
4.3%
WV
7.3%
PA
5.3%
NY
5.1%
ME
4.4%
AK
6.4%
HI
3.4%
MA
4.6%
VT
3.7%
RI
5.4%
CT
5.2%
NJ
5.6%
DE
4.9%
MD
5.1%
MI
5.0%
DC
6.7%
6.1% or more
4.1% to 5.0%
5.1% to 5.5% (at or above the U.S. rate)
4.0% or less
5.6% to 6.0%
Note: Seasonally Adjusted
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Idaho vs. U.S.Unemployment Rates
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
U.S. Idaho
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Idaho Unemployment
RatesBy County
Sep 2015
State Rate = 4.2%
4.2% to 7.9%
5.0% to 6.4%
3.5% or lower
3.6% to 4.1%
6.5% or greater
Source: Idaho Department of Labor
Jerome
3.4%
Jefferson
3.5%
Idaho
6.6%
Gooding
3.2%
Gem
5.2%
Fremont
3.2%
Franklin
4.9%
Elmore
6.4%
Custer
6.7%
Clearwater
7.8%
Washington
5.7% Clark
4.3%
Valley
5.8%
Cassia
3.8%
Twin Falls
3.7%
Caribou
3.8%
Teton
3.4%Canyon
4.9%
Shoshone
7.6%
Camas
4.3%
Power
4.5%
Butte
4.3%
Payette
4.9%
Boundary
5.2%
Owyhee
3.1%
Bonneville
3.6%
Bonner
6.2%
Nez Perce
3.9%
Boise
5.4%
Minidoka
3.9%
Blaine
3.6%
Madison
2.9%
Bingham
4.2%Lincoln
4.6%
Benewah
7.1%
Lewis
4.6%
Bear Lake
4.0%
Lemhi
3.3%
Bannock
4.1%
Latah
3.8%
Adams
8.9%
Kootenai
5.0%
Ada
3.1%
Oneida
3.9%
Idaho Personal Income Growth 6th Highest in the Nation
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Census Bureau
Percent Change in Personal Income : 2013-2014State Average = 3.9% NH
4.5%
NM
4.6%
UT
4.6%
AZ
4.1%
CA
4.7%
NV
3.9%
OR
5.7%
TX
5.6%
OK
3.8%
CO
5.6 %
WA
5.3%
ID
5.3%
MT
4.0%
WY
4.0%
ND
5.6%
SD
1.7%
MN
3.2%
NE
0.5%
KS
2.9%
IA
1.3%
MO
2.7%
AR
3.1%
LA
3.2%
WI
3.4%
IL
2.4%IN
2.5%
OH
3.9%
FL
4.6%
TN 3.6%
KY4.4%
MS
1.3%AL
3.1%
GA
4.4%
SC
4.3%
NC 3.5%
VA
2.6%
WV
2.9%
PA
3.4%
NY
3.7%
ME
2.9%
AK
5.7%
HI
3.8%
MA
4.2%
VT
4.0%
RI
4.3%
CT
3.0%
NJ
3.0%
DE
3.6%
MD
3.3%
MI
4.0%
DC
3.6%
3.9% to 4.4% (at or above the state average)
3.1% to 3.8%
4.5% or more
2.1% to 3.0%
2.0% or less
Idaho Median Household Income Slightly Below Nation
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Current Population Survey
2013 U.S. Rate = $51,939, 2013 Idaho Rate = $51,767
NM
$42,127
UT
$62,967
AZ
$50,602
CA
$57,528
NV
$45,369
OR
$56,307
TX
$53,027
OK
$43,777
CO
$63,371
WA
$60,106
ID
$51,767
MT
$44,132
WY
$55,700
ND
$52,888
SD
$54,453
MN
$60,90
7
NE
$53774
KS
$41,485
IA
$54,85
5
MO
$50,311
AR
$39,91
9
LA
$39,622
WI
$55,258
IL
$57,196IN
$50,553
OH
$46,398
FL
$47,88
6
TN
$42,499
KY$42,158
MS
$40,850AL
$41,381
GA
$47,439
SC
$43,74
9
NC
$41,208
VA
$67,62
0
WV
$40,241
PA
$53,952
NY
$53,843
AK
$61,137
HI
$61,40
8
MA
$62,96
3
VT
$54,842
NH
$71,322
RI
$57,812CT
$67,781
NJ
$61,782DE
$52,219
MD
$65,262
MI
$48,801
DC
$60,675
$56,000 to $60,999
$51,900 to $55,999 (at or above the U.S. Rate)
$61,000 or more
$45,000 to $51,899
$44,999 or less
ME
$50,121
Second Quarter 2014U.S. 2.49%, Idaho 1.32%
Idaho Below National Average Foreclosure Rates
Note: Seasonally Adjusted
Source: Moody’s Economy.com
NM
2.92%
UT
1.06%
AZ
0.85%
CA
1.10%
NV
3.33%
OR
2.74%
TX
1.01%
CO
0.86%
WA
2.04%
ID
1.32%
MT
0.87%
WY
0.52%
ND
0.68%
SD
0.87%
MN
0.94%
NE
0.72%
KS
1.50%
IA
1.63%
MO
1.08%
WI
1.71%
IL
3.68%IN
2.54%
OH
2.88%
FL
6.91%
KY2.24%
AL
1.43%
GA
1.46%
SC
2.41%
NC 1.44%
VA
0.91%
WV
1.12%
PA
2.81%
NY
5.89%
ME
4.51%
AK
0.89%
HI
3.88
%
MA
1.95%VT
2.96%
NH
1.35%
RI
2.80%CT
3.96%
NJ
8.10%
DE
2.95%
MD
3.24%
MI
1.22%
DC
2.59%
4.00% or more
1.00% to 1.48%
1.49% to 2.48%
.99% or lower
2.49% to 3.99% (at or above national average)
AR
1.69
%
LA
2.11%
MS
1.73%
TN
1.25%OK
2.40%
Idaho Poverty Rate Lower than National Average
2013 U.S. Rate = 14.5%, 2013 Idaho Rate = 13.4%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 CPS data
NM
22.9%
UT
10.1%
AZ
22.4%
CA
15.9%
NV
17.4%
OR
15.2%
TX
18.1%
OK
14.3%
CO
11.9%
WA
11.8%
ID
13.4%
MT
13.8%
WY
12.6%
ND
10.0%
SD
9.7%
MN
12.7%
NE
11.6%
KS
13.4%
IA
11.3%
MO
13.8%
AR
18.8%
LA
18.5%
WI
10.8%
IL
13.4%IN
12.3%
OH
13.3%
FL
15.7%
TN 18.2%
KY21.3%
MS
22.5%
AL
18.2%
GA
17.5%
SC
16.3%
NC 18.3%
VA
11.1%
WV
17.3%
PA
13.0%
NY
15.6%
ME
13.5%
AK
10.3%
HI
10.8%
MA
13.2
%
VT
8.5%
NH
9.5%
RI
13.9%
CT
11.2%
NJ
11.3%
DE
15.0%
MD
10.9%
MI
14.6%
DC
20.1%
10.6% to 12.0%
12.1% to 14.4%
10.5% or less
14.5% to 18.0% (at or above the U.S. rate)
18.1% or more
Utah is One of the Fastest Growing
States in the CountryPercent Change in Population for States: 2012 to 2013
U.S. Rate = 0.7%
Source: U.S Census Bureau
Population Loss
NM
0.1%
UT
1.6%
AZ
1.2%
CA
0.9%
NV
1.3%
OR
0.8%
TX
1.5%
OK
0.9%
CO
1.5%
WA
1.1%
ID
1.0%
MT
1.0%
WY
1.0%
ND
3.1%
SD
1.3%
MN
0.8%
NE
0.7%
KS
0.3%
IA
0.5%
MO
0.3%
AR
0.3%
LA
0.5%
WI
0.3%
IL
0.1%IN
0.5%
OH
0.2%
FL
1.2%
TN 0.6%
KY 0.4%
MS
0.2%AL
0.3%
GA
0.8%
SC
1.1%
NC 1.0%
VA
0.9%
WV
-0.1%
PA
0.1%
NY
0.4%
ME
-0.01%
AK
0.7%
HI
1.0%
MA
0.7%
VT
0.1%
NH
0.1%
RI
0.1%
CT
0.1%
NJ
0.4%
DE
0.9%
MD
0.7%
MI
0.1%
.075% to 1.10%
0.5% to 0.9%
DC
2.1%
1.15% or more
0% to 0.4%
KS
0.3%
Construction
Idaho Residential Construction Activity
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
198
0
198
5
199
0
199
5
200
0
200
5
201
0
Single-Family Units Multifamily
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and U.S. Census Bureau
ID Value of New Residential Construction
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
Mil
lio
ns
Single Family Units Multi Family Units Total
Average Sales Price By RegionNew Single-Family Houses in 2005 Dollars
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce
$125,000
$175,000
$225,000
$275,000
$325,000
$375,000
$425,000
$475,000
199
5
200
0
200
5
201
0
U.S. Northeast Midwest South West
20
14
Western Region Shows Greater Change in Average Sales Price
New Single-Family Homes
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
196
5
197
0
197
5
198
0
198
5
199
0
199
5
200
0
200
5
201
0
United States West
20
14
Utah is One of the Fastest Growing
States in the CountryPercent Change in Population for States: 2012 to 2013
U.S. Rate = 0.7%
Source: U.S Census Bureau
Population Loss
NM
0.1%
UT
1.6%
AZ
1.2%
CA
0.9%
NV
1.3%
OR
0.8%
TX
1.5%
OK
0.9%
CO
1.5%
WA
1.1%
ID
1.0%
MT
1.0%
WY
1.0%
ND
3.1%
SD
1.3%
MN
0.8%
NE
0.7%
KS
0.3%
IA
0.5%
MO
0.3%
AR
0.3%
LA
0.5%
WI
0.3%
IL
0.1%IN
0.5%
OH
0.2%
FL
1.2%
TN 0.6%
KY 0.4%
MS
0.2%AL
0.3%
GA
0.8%
SC
1.1%
NC 1.0%
VA
0.9%
WV
-0.1%
PA
0.1%
NY
0.4%
ME
-0.01%
AK
0.7%
HI
1.0%
MA
0.7%
VT
0.1%
NH
0.1%
RI
0.1%
CT
0.1%
NJ
0.4%
DE
0.9%
MD
0.7%
MI
0.1%
.075% to 1.10%
0.5% to 0.9%
DC
2.1%
1.15% or more
0% to 0.4%
KS
0.3%
Exports
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Idaho Net International Exports
$3,559
$2,122$1,967
$2,096
$2,915
$3,260
$3,721
$4,704
$4,988
$3,880
$5,150
$5,899$6,113
$5,784
$5,136
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
Mil
lio
ns
of
Do
lla
rs
Idaho Exports: Top 5 Industries
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,5002
00
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
Mil
lio
ns
of
Do
lla
rs
Computers & Electronics Food Chemicals Primary Metal Mfg Agricultural Products
Idaho Exports Sectors with Significant Changes: 2004-2014
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
CommodityShare of Total
2004
Share of Total
2014
Change in Share
2004-2014
Percent Change
2004-2014
Food & Kindred
Products8.4% 15.1% 6.7% 217%
Primary Metal
Manufacturing0.2% 5.8% 5.6% 4650%
Transportation
Equipment1.4% 4.6% 3.1% 465%
Wood Products 0.7% 3.5% 2.8% 768%
Machinery 3.9% 2.5% -1.3% 16%
Paper 4.6% 2.5% -2.1% -5.0%
Computers &
Electronics65.5% 43.9% -21.6% 18%
2014 Idaho Merchandise Exports to Top Ten Purchasing Countries
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
$125
$151
$194
$280
$301
$386
$473
$482
$495
$1,412
$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600
United Kingdom
Hong Kong
Malaysia
Japan
Mexico
Singapore
Taiwan
China
South Korea
Canada
Millions of Dollars
2014 Idaho Merchandise Exports of Top Ten Export Industries
Source: Foreign Trade Division, U.S. Census Bureau
$129
$130
$141
$179
$235
$269
$296
$343
$773
$2,257
$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500
Paper
Machinery
Minerals
Wood Products
Transportation Equipment
Agricultural Products
Primary Metal Mfg
Chemicals
Food
Computers & Electronics
Millions of Dollars
Source: International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
2014 Top Purchasing Countries by Export Industry
Source: International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
2014 Top Purchasing Countries by Export Industry
Source: International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
2014 Top Purchasing Countries by Export Industry
Source: International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
2014 Top Purchasing Countries by Export Industry
Source: International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
2014 Top Purchasing Countries by Export Industry
Source: International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
2014 Top Purchasing Countries by Export Industry
Utah is One of the Fastest Growing
States in the CountryPercent Change in Population for States: 2012 to 2013
U.S. Rate = 0.7%
Source: U.S Census Bureau
Population Loss
NM
0.1%
UT
1.6%
AZ
1.2%
CA
0.9%
NV
1.3%
OR
0.8%
TX
1.5%
OK
0.9%
CO
1.5%
WA
1.1%
ID
1.0%
MT
1.0%
WY
1.0%
ND
3.1%
SD
1.3%
MN
0.8%
NE
0.7%
KS
0.3%
IA
0.5%
MO
0.3%
AR
0.3%
LA
0.5%
WI
0.3%
IL
0.1%IN
0.5%
OH
0.2%
FL
1.2%
TN 0.6%
KY 0.4%
MS
0.2%AL
0.3%
GA
0.8%
SC
1.1%
NC 1.0%
VA
0.9%
WV
-0.1%
PA
0.1%
NY
0.4%
ME
-0.01%
AK
0.7%
HI
1.0%
MA
0.7%
VT
0.1%
NH
0.1%
RI
0.1%
CT
0.1%
NJ
0.4%
DE
0.9%
MD
0.7%
MI
0.1%
.075% to 1.10%
0.5% to 0.9%
DC
2.1%
1.15% or more
0% to 0.4%
KS
0.3%
Generational Population
Data
Source: dadaviz.com analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data
U.S. Generational Distribution by County
Source: dadaviz.com analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data
U.S. Generational Distribution by State
UT GenerationalPopulationBy County
As of July 1, 2014
Baby Boomers (Ages 50-69)
Box Elder
Cache Rich
Weber
Tooele
Salt Lake
Morgan
Summit Daggett
Utah
WasatchDuchesne
Uintah
Juab
Sanpete
Carbon
EmeryGrand
Millard
Piute
Garfield
Sevier
Wayne
San Juan
Iron
Beaver
Washington Kane
Davis
Source: dadaviz.com analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data
Generation Y (Ages 15-29)
Generation Z (Ages 0-14)
Generation X (Ages 30-49)
ID GenerationalPopulationBy County
As of July 1, 2014
Jerome
Jefferson
Idaho
Gooding
Gem
Fremont
Franklin
Elmore
Custer
Clearwater
WashingtonClark
Valley
CassiaTwin Falls
Caribou
TetonCanyon
Shoshone
Camas
Power
Butte
Payette
Boundary
Owyhee
Bonneville
Bonner
Nez Perce
Boise
Minidoka
Blaine
Madison
Bingham
Lincoln
Benewah
Lewis
Bear Lake
Lemhi
Bannock
Latah
Adams
Kootenai
Ada
Oneida
Generation Y (Ages 15-29)
Generation Z (Ages 0-14)
Generation X (Ages 30-49)
Baby Boomers (Ages 50-69)
Source: dadaviz.com analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data
Utah is One of the Fastest Growing
States in the CountryPercent Change in Population for States: 2012 to 2013
U.S. Rate = 0.7%
Source: U.S Census Bureau
Population Loss
NM
0.1%
UT
1.6%
AZ
1.2%
CA
0.9%
NV
1.3%
OR
0.8%
TX
1.5%
OK
0.9%
CO
1.5%
WA
1.1%
ID
1.0%
MT
1.0%
WY
1.0%
ND
3.1%
SD
1.3%
MN
0.8%
NE
0.7%
KS
0.3%
IA
0.5%
MO
0.3%
AR
0.3%
LA
0.5%
WI
0.3%
IL
0.1%IN
0.5%
OH
0.2%
FL
1.2%
TN 0.6%
KY 0.4%
MS
0.2%AL
0.3%
GA
0.8%
SC
1.1%
NC 1.0%
VA
0.9%
WV
-0.1%
PA
0.1%
NY
0.4%
ME
-0.01%
AK
0.7%
HI
1.0%
MA
0.7%
VT
0.1%
NH
0.1%
RI
0.1%
CT
0.1%
NJ
0.4%
DE
0.9%
MD
0.7%
MI
0.1%
.075% to 1.10%
0.5% to 0.9%
DC
2.1%
1.15% or more
0% to 0.4%
KS
0.3%
AGRICULTURE
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting as a Percentage of U.S. GDP
2014
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
12.9%
2.2%
3.8%
8.2%
12.0%
20.2%
4.6%
2.9%
5.8%
6.0%
12.0%
3.7%
1.7%
2.6%
1.2%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
Government
Other Services
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Agriculture
U.S. Farm Productivity IncreasesWhile Number of Farms Decrease
Source: United States Department of Agriculture
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,0001
95
0
195
4
195
9
196
4
196
9
197
4
197
8
198
2
198
7
199
2
199
7
200
2
200
7
201
1
Number of Farms Productivity
Contribution to US Agriculture IndustryBy State
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Note: Data unavailable for Delaware and Rhode Island
2014 Contribution State 2014 Ranking
16.6% California 1st
5.5% Texas 3rd
3.7% Washington 7th
2.1% Idaho 16th
1.9% Oregon 19th
1.6% Colorado 24th
1.0% Arizona 31st
1.0% New Mexico 32nd
0.4% Utah 39th
0.4% Wyoming 40th
0.2% Nevada 45th
Agriculture Real Value Added to State GDP Top 10 States
Per Capita
$421.88
$3,285.67$3,250.21
$2,402.86
$2,173.14
$1,728.40$1,722.44
$1,220.23
$873.80 $849.09$777.88
$0.00
$500.00
$1,000.00
$1,500.00
$2,000.00
$2,500.00
$3,000.00
$3,500.00
Un
ite
d S
tate
s
Neb
ras
ka
So
uth
Dak
ota
Iow
a
No
rth
Dak
ota
Ida
ho
Kan
sas
Mo
nta
na
Ark
an
sa
s
Wy
om
ing
Min
ne
so
ta
2014
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Note: Data unavailable for Delaware and Rhode Island
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Note: Data unavailable for Delaware and Rhode Island
$421.88
$172.96 $162.14
$132.95
$114.12$102.50 $98.09 $83.48
$78.72 $63.88 $57.00
$0.00
$50.00
$100.00
$150.00
$200.00
$250.00
$300.00
$350.00
$400.00
$450.00
Un
ite
d S
tate
s
Uta
h
Vir
gin
ia
We
st
Vir
gin
ia
Ma
ryla
nd
New
Ham
psh
ire
New
Yo
rk
Neva
da
Ma
ssa
ch
use
tts
Ne
w J
ers
ey
Co
nn
ec
ticu
t
2014
Agriculture Real Value Added to State GDP Bottom 10 States
Per Capita
2012 Production Value of Agricultural Products Sold
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture; 2014 Census Survey
Value State
$42,627,472,000 California
$25,375,581,000 Texas
$9,120,749,000 Washington
$7,801,446,000 Idaho
$7,780,874,000 Colorado
$4,883,674,000 Oregon
$3,732,113,000 Arizona
$2,550,147,000 New Mexico
$1,816,147,000 Utah
$1,689,416,000 Wyoming
$764,144,000 NevadaTotal Value:
$108,141,763,000
U.S. Agricultural Products Sold as a Percentage of Total Market Value
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture; 2012 Census Survey
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting as a Percentage of Idaho GDP
2014
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
13.4%
2.1%
3.3%
8.4%
9.4%
17.8%
1.9%
2.9%
7.8%
6.0%
12.7%
4.1%
1.6%
1.5%
7.0%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0%
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Idaho Market Value of Agricultural Products Sold
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture; 2012 Census Survey
Note: Total slightly higher than individual amounts shown due to information withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations
(In Thousands of Dollars)
Idaho Top 10 Agricultural Exports2013
Source: United States Department of Agriculture
Note: Top 10 exports comprise about 98% of Idaho total exports
Ranking ProductShare of Total Export Market
1st Other plant products 22.4%
2nd Wheat 20.6%
3rd Dairy products 17.5%
4th Vegetables, processed 9.6%
5th Beef and veal 7.0%
6th Vegetables, fresh 5.3%
7th Feeds and fodder 5.2%
8th Other animal products 4.0%
9th Grain products, processed 3.9%
10th Hides and skins 2.7%
Idaho Economic Indicators2014 - 2016
Source: Moody’s Analytics
5.5
3.2
8.7
3.7
2.3
1.3
3.6
5.5
5.0
3.8
3.3
1.4
2.7
6.5
5.5
4.8
2.6
1.3
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0
Gross State Product
Home Prices
Personal Income
Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Employment
Population
2014 2015f 2016f
e = estimate f = forecast
Robert Spendlove
Economic and Public Policy Officer
Email:
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