• The geopolitics of climate change• How much how fast?• Northern India, 2036• We can fix this…• A happy tale

The geopolitics of climate change

• America• Africa• Europe• Asia

“Climate change is a threat multiplier. It will make unstable states more unstable, poor nations poorer, inequality more pronounced, and conflict more likely. And the

areas of most geopolitical risk are also most at risk of climate change.”(Chris Huhne)

How much how fast?

• Three possible scenarios for global warming• World growing hotter 0.06o C per decade• 0.3o C per decade• 0.6o C per decade

Where we are today?...........

How much how fast?

• Huge Shift in Public opinion except USA• (In 2007 “77%”, in 2009 “57%”) believing that global warming is due to

anthropogenic activities• IPCC (1988) by WMO and UNEP• 70 billion tons methane gas reserves Siberia • Industrialization and Carbon Dioxide• Circa 1800, 280ppm• In 2010, 390ppm• Late 19th century the Industrialization in North America and Japan.• Start of 20th century oil and natural gas added to the fossil fuel.• Late 1960s one part per million was added per year

East Siberian ice and methane gas

Greenhouse gasses

Co2 emission

Northern India, 2036

• Melting of Glaciers• Overfilling the Rivers Every summers• A gradual process• Indus, 90% glacier fed• Medium sized problem for India but life and death crises for Pakistan• 2036, Indus system will running empty• In the first half of 20th century 216BCM water was in Indus, but at the eve

of 1947, 98.7 BCM water was unused• Indus water treaty(1960)• Per capita water availability = 5300m3

• But it decreases to 1000m3 in 2010

We can fix this…

• A ray of hope coming to us.• Replacing fossil fuels with biofuels (Algae, 30 to 60%

oil

“some technologies are market-ready now and other are a step away”

Technologies

• Sahara Desert CSP power generating project (2009)

• What is the goal ……….?• Deep geothermal power project (2006) Basel• Les Brown a hero (Plan B 4.0 2009)

• 80% cut in CO2 by 2020.

CSP

Geothermal

A happy tale

• Climate change is unique, the only solution it has is the cooperation of nations.

• We have a single shot to handle the climate change.(Nick Mabey Director, E3G 2004)

• countries pushing for independence from foreign oil.• Bangladesh broke the deadlock• 2075 the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is 390ppm.• It is estimated that it would not be 350ppm until almost 2100.• We should turn the dial back to 280ppm as it was in the start

of industrial revolution.• And then this generation will have done its job and has saved

the civilization

References

DYER G “CLIMATE WARS THE FIGHT FOR SURVIVAL AS THE WORLD OVERHEATS” 1st South Asian One World Oxford 2011

Retrieved from• http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2011/2/10/1297340671284/Carbon-graphic-

001.jpg

• http://www.stanfordalumni.org/news/magazine/sage/201001/cooling/images/pie_chart_countries.jpg

(15-01-2012)