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Second Quarter 2015 Earnings Release Presentation July 30, 2015

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Page 1: Earnings Release Presentation - Xcel Energyinvestors.xcelenergy.com/interactive/newlookandfeel/...Second Quarter 2015 2014 YTD 2015 2014 10 11 Economic, Sales & Customer Data 2015

Second Quarter 2015 Earnings Release Presentation

July 30, 2015

Page 2: Earnings Release Presentation - Xcel Energyinvestors.xcelenergy.com/interactive/newlookandfeel/...Second Quarter 2015 2014 YTD 2015 2014 10 11 Economic, Sales & Customer Data 2015

$0.91 $0.91$0.85$0.69

Ongoing EPS GAAP EPS

2014 2015

1 1

EPS Results

YTD 2015 ongoing earnings exclude a charge of $0.16 per share related to the Monticello extended power uprate (EPU) project

$0.39 $0.39$0.39 $0.39

Ongoing EPS GAAP EPS

2014 2015Q2

YTD

Page 3: Earnings Release Presentation - Xcel Energyinvestors.xcelenergy.com/interactive/newlookandfeel/...Second Quarter 2015 2014 YTD 2015 2014 10 11 Economic, Sales & Customer Data 2015

Improve Utility Performance

● Close ROE gap 50 bps by 2018 ● Derive 75% of revenue from MYPs

Objectives Measurable Results

Xcel Energy Strategic Plan

Drive Operational Excellence

● Manage workforce transition ● Limit annual O&M growth to 0-2%

Provide Customer Options & Solutions

● Offer more energy options ● Exceed customer expectations

Invest for the Future

● Base capital plan drives annual rate base growth of 4.7% ● Potential incremental investment in natural gas and transmission

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Page 4: Earnings Release Presentation - Xcel Energyinvestors.xcelenergy.com/interactive/newlookandfeel/...Second Quarter 2015 2014 YTD 2015 2014 10 11 Economic, Sales & Customer Data 2015

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Legislative Initiative in Minnesota

Governor signed Energy & Jobs bill into law in June 2015

Provides longer, more holistic multi-year rate plans

Ability to implement multi-year plans for up to five years

Allows for recovery of capital investments

Recovery of O&M expenses based on a price index

Distribution costs for grid modernization eligible for rider recovery

Recovery of early plant closure costs, if Commission orders closure

Interim rates for the first two years, while plan is under consideration

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Page 5: Earnings Release Presentation - Xcel Energyinvestors.xcelenergy.com/interactive/newlookandfeel/...Second Quarter 2015 2014 YTD 2015 2014 10 11 Economic, Sales & Customer Data 2015

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Legislative Initiative in Texas

Governor signed regulatory lag bill into law in June 2015

Legislation will help to reduce regulatory lag

— Ability to implement temporary rates or surcharge 155 days after rate case filing date

— Allows the addition of post-test year capital additions up to 30 days before rate case filing date

— New natural gas generation may be included in rate base as long as it is in service before the proposed effective rate date

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Page 6: Earnings Release Presentation - Xcel Energyinvestors.xcelenergy.com/interactive/newlookandfeel/...Second Quarter 2015 2014 YTD 2015 2014 10 11 Economic, Sales & Customer Data 2015

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Potential Natural Gas Investment

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Colorado Commission information meetings

— Examine the long term supply of natural gas and approaches to manage prices, including rate-basing of natural gas reserves

— Anticipate the Commission will schedule informational meetings in the third quarter 2015

Regulatory framework filing planned for fourth quarter 2015

File for potential investment in second half of 2016

Page 7: Earnings Release Presentation - Xcel Energyinvestors.xcelenergy.com/interactive/newlookandfeel/...Second Quarter 2015 2014 YTD 2015 2014 10 11 Economic, Sales & Customer Data 2015

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Renewables & Operations Highlights

Community solar gardens decision in Minnesota

Cherokee combined-cycle plant completed first fire

Monticello nuclear plant reaches 100% of EPU (671 MW) and receives final NRC approval

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Page 8: Earnings Release Presentation - Xcel Energyinvestors.xcelenergy.com/interactive/newlookandfeel/...Second Quarter 2015 2014 YTD 2015 2014 10 11 Economic, Sales & Customer Data 2015

Quarterly Ongoing EPS Change

2Q14 Ongoing

EPS

2Q15 Ongoing

EPS

$0.20

$0.30

$0.40

$0.50

$0.60

$0.39 $0.39

($0.02) ($0.02)

($0.02) ($0.01) ($0.01) ($0.01) $0.01 $0.02 $0.06

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The $0.02 adverse impact of weather is incorporated in electric margins

Page 9: Earnings Release Presentation - Xcel Energyinvestors.xcelenergy.com/interactive/newlookandfeel/...Second Quarter 2015 2014 YTD 2015 2014 10 11 Economic, Sales & Customer Data 2015

YTD Ongoing EPS Change

YTD 2014 Ongoing

EPS

YTD 2015 Ongoing

EPS

$0.40

$0.50

$0.60

$0.70

$0.80

$0.90

$1.00

$1.10

$1.20

$1.30

$0.91 $0.85

($0.06) ($0.04)

($0.04) ($0.03) ($0.03) ($0.02) ($0.01) $0.01

$0.11 $0.05

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The $0.07 adverse impact of weather is incorporated in electric and natural gas margins

Page 10: Earnings Release Presentation - Xcel Energyinvestors.xcelenergy.com/interactive/newlookandfeel/...Second Quarter 2015 2014 YTD 2015 2014 10 11 Economic, Sales & Customer Data 2015

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ROE Results – Ongoing Earnings

9.40%8.24%

10.50% 9.80%7.92% 8.72%

NSP-M NSP-W PSCo SPS TotalRegulated

XcelEnergy

● Xcel Energy anticipates the full-year 2015 ROE’s for NSP-M, Total Regulated and Xcel Energy will be higher than the Twelve Month Ended ROE’s reported in the table above, due to the timing of regulatory reserves associated with the Minnesota rate case during 2014

● Ongoing earnings exclude a $129 million pre-tax charge for the Monticello EPU project ● GAAP ROEs are 6.42% (NSP-M), 10.07% (NSP-W), 9.05% (Xcel Energy), and 8.10% (Regulated)

Twelve Months Ended 06/30/2015

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2014 Rate Base

PSCo 43%

NSP-M 42%

NSP-W 5%

SPS 10%

Page 11: Earnings Release Presentation - Xcel Energyinvestors.xcelenergy.com/interactive/newlookandfeel/...Second Quarter 2015 2014 YTD 2015 2014 10 11 Economic, Sales & Customer Data 2015

EPS Results by Operating Company

PSCo $ 0.19 $ 0.18 $ 0.41 $ 0.41 NSP-Minnesota 0.15 0.15 0.32 0.37 SPS 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.09 NSP-Wisconsin 0.02 0.02 0.07 0.07 Equity earnings 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 Regulated utility 0.42 0.42 0.90 0.96 Holding company and other (0.03) (0.03) (0.05) (0.05)

Total Ongoing diluted EPS $ 0.39 $ 0.39 $ 0.85 $ 0.91

Loss on Monticello LCM/EPU Project - - (0.16) -

Total GAAP diluted EPS $ 0.39 $ 0.39 $ 0.69 $ 0.91

Second Quarter

2015 2014

YTD

2015 2014

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Page 12: Earnings Release Presentation - Xcel Energyinvestors.xcelenergy.com/interactive/newlookandfeel/...Second Quarter 2015 2014 YTD 2015 2014 10 11 Economic, Sales & Customer Data 2015

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Economic, Sales & Customer Data

2015 YTD W/A Electric Sales Growth

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* Pilot 3-year decoupling for residential and small C&I beginning January 2016

-1.2%-0.6% -0.7%

-1.3%-1.9%

-0.4%-0.5%

0.6%0.3%

-0.8%

2015 Q2 W/A Electric Sales Growth

1.0%0.9%

0.3%0.7%

1.3%

4.4%3.5%

4.2%

5.5%

3.7% 4.0%

2015 Q2 YoY Customer Growth June Unemployment

NSP-M * NSP-W PSCo SPS Xcel Energy NSP-M * NSP-W PSCo SPS Xcel Energy

NSP-M * NSP-W PSCo SPS Xcel Energy NSP-M * NSP-W PSCo SPS Xcel Energy Nat’l Avg.

Page 13: Earnings Release Presentation - Xcel Energyinvestors.xcelenergy.com/interactive/newlookandfeel/...Second Quarter 2015 2014 YTD 2015 2014 10 11 Economic, Sales & Customer Data 2015

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Xcel Energy W/A Electric Sales Growth

1.3%

0.1%

-0.4%

0.1%0.1%0.2%

1.7%

0.5%

-1.3%

C&I Total Residential

2013 2014 YTD 2013 2014 YTD 2013 2014 YTD

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YTD = Six months ended June 30, 2015

Page 14: Earnings Release Presentation - Xcel Energyinvestors.xcelenergy.com/interactive/newlookandfeel/...Second Quarter 2015 2014 YTD 2015 2014 10 11 Economic, Sales & Customer Data 2015

Key Assumption Changes Earnings Driver Previous Current W/A Electric Sales Increase 1.0% Increase 0.5% W/A Natural Gas Sales Increase 0% to 1.0% Decrease 2.0%

2015 Ongoing Earnings Guidance

Ongoing EPS Guidance Range: $2.00 – $2.15

Sensitivities Earnings Driver Sensitivity EPS Retail Electric Sales 100 bps +/- $0.04 O&M Expense 100 bps +/- $0.03

Assumes a 35% ETR and 508 million shares outstanding

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Page 15: Earnings Release Presentation - Xcel Energyinvestors.xcelenergy.com/interactive/newlookandfeel/...Second Quarter 2015 2014 YTD 2015 2014 10 11 Economic, Sales & Customer Data 2015

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Appendix

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Page 16: Earnings Release Presentation - Xcel Energyinvestors.xcelenergy.com/interactive/newlookandfeel/...Second Quarter 2015 2014 YTD 2015 2014 10 11 Economic, Sales & Customer Data 2015

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YTD W/A Electric Sales Growth

-1.8%

-3.4%

0.3%

0.8%

-1.1%

0.3%

-0.6%

2.3%

0.0%

-0.8%

0.6%

-0.5%

NSP-M NSP-W SPS

Residential C&I Total

PSCo

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Page 17: Earnings Release Presentation - Xcel Energyinvestors.xcelenergy.com/interactive/newlookandfeel/...Second Quarter 2015 2014 YTD 2015 2014 10 11 Economic, Sales & Customer Data 2015

Opco ROE Sensitivities

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Opco Jurisdiction 2014

Rate Base ($ millions)

Revenue Requirement ($ millions)

EPS

NSPM

MN Electric $7,047 $57 +/- $0.073 MN Gas $453 $4 +/- $0.005 ND Electric $454 $4 +/- $0.005 ND Gas $48 $0 +/- $0.000 SD Electric $474 $4 +/- $0.005

PSCo CO Electric $6,277 $55 +/- $0.070 CO Gas $1,661 $14 +/- $0.018

SPS TX Electric $1,507 $13 +/- $0.016 NM Electric $587 $5 +/- $0.006

NSPW WI Electric $906 $7 +/- $0.010 WI Gas $98 $1 +/- $0.001

Sensitivity to 100 bps change in ROE

● Assumes authorized equity ratio, a 35% ETR, and 508 million shares outstanding

● Rate base figures obtained from our jurisdictional regulatory filings

Page 18: Earnings Release Presentation - Xcel Energyinvestors.xcelenergy.com/interactive/newlookandfeel/...Second Quarter 2015 2014 YTD 2015 2014 10 11 Economic, Sales & Customer Data 2015

Financing Plan for 2015

Issuer Security Amount (millions)

Timing Tenor Coupon

Hold Co Senior Unsecured $250 Completed 2 Yr 1.20%

Hold Co Senior Unsecured $250 Completed 10 Yr 3.30%

PSCo First Mortgage Bonds $250 Completed 10 Yr 2.90%

NSP-W First Mortgage Bonds $100 Completed 9 Yr 3.30%

NSP-M First Mortgage Bonds $600 Second Half N/A N/A

SPS First Mortgage Bonds $200 Second Half N/A N/A

Financing plans are subject to change, depending on capital expenditures, internal cash generation, rating agency views, market conditions, and other factors

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Page 19: Earnings Release Presentation - Xcel Energyinvestors.xcelenergy.com/interactive/newlookandfeel/...Second Quarter 2015 2014 YTD 2015 2014 10 11 Economic, Sales & Customer Data 2015

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Upcoming 2015 Third Quarter Events

CFA “investMNt” Conference: Aug. 5 Barclays Kohler Conference: Aug. 19-21 Barclays Conference: Sept. 9 Wolfe Research Conference: Sept. 30

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