early warning systems somalia & key climate risks
DESCRIPTION
Early Warning Systems in Somalia & Key Climate Risks : 2nd Arab Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction Sharm-el-Sheikh, Egypt, 14-16 September 2014 and Humanitarian Partnership Conference - Nairobi 16th - 18th September 2014TRANSCRIPT
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
Early Warning Systems in Somalia
& Key Climate Risks
2nd Arab Conference on Disaster Risk ReductionSharm-el-Sheikh, Egypt, 14-16 September 2014
andHumanitarian Partnership Conference - Nairobi
16th - 18th September 2014
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Presentation Outline
• Early warning systems in Somalia
• Key climate risks faced in Somalia
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Early Warning Systems in Somalia • Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS
NET) o since 1985 worldwide, since 1995 in Somalia
o Leading provider of information and analysis on food security• Resources for governments, international relief agencies, NGOs,
researchers, humanitarian response planers, and journalists
o To project food security outcomes in the future FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions • regarding likely events, their potential impact, and probable
responses of various actors
o Assumptions are interpreted in the context of the current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario• Typically for six months
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Early Warning Systems in Somalia
Other information collection bodies in Somalia and FEWS NET’s partners
o Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU)• A project managed by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) • A primary source for information on food security, nutrition, and
livelihoods in Somalia
o Somalia Water and Land Information Management (SWALIM) • an information management unit within FAO Somalia focusing on
water and rainfall
o Somalia Resilience Program (SomRep) • A multi-year effort by seven leading NGOs (World Vision, Oxfam,
DRC, COOPI, CARE, ADRA, and ACF) • Designed to tackle the challenge of recurrent droughts and reduce
chronic vulnerability through early action
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Early Warning Systems in Somalia
National disaster management agencies
o National Environment Research and Disaster Preparedness and Management Authority (NERAD) in Somaliland
o Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management Agency (HADMA) in Puntland
o Somali Disaster Management Agency (SDMA) in South-Central Somalia
Sources of Data and Tools : Livelihoods
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Sources of Data and Tools : Remote Sensing
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• Mapviewer (USGS)
• RFE rainfall plots
http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/fews/mapviewer/
CHIRPS – monthly: USGS/UCSB-CHG, InfraRed unbiased by climatology, added stations. 1981-present, 5Km, global 50N-50S, 5 days total.
Sources of Data and Tools : FEWS NET Data Portal
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Sources of Data and Tools : Water Requirements Satisfaction
Index (WRSI)
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Sources of Data and Tools : Regional and National Climate
Partners
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Sources of Data and Tools : Market Information
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Sources of Data and Tools : Databases
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9 Steps of Scenario Development
STEP 1: Set scenario
parameters
STEP 2: Describe and
classify current food security
STEP 3: Develop key assumptions
STEP 4: Describe impacts
on HH income sources
STEP 5: Describe impacts
on HH food sources
STEP 6: Develop response
assumptions
STEP 7: Describe and
classify projected HH food security
STEP 8: Describe and
classify projected area food security
STEP 9: Identify events which
could change the scenario
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Examples of Early Warning : Price Projections
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Key Climate Risks
• Drought
• Floods
• Cyclones
2010/11 Severe drought analysis
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Key Climate Risks: Drought
1995-1996
1996-1997
1997-1998
1998-1999
1999-2000
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-2010
2010- May 25,
2011
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Wajir District, Kenya Hiran, Somalia Middle Shabelle, Somalia Gedo, Somalia MEAN
Tota
l R
ain
fall
Apri
l 1 -
June 3
0
(mm
)
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Key Climate Risks: River Flooding• The
Shabelle River routinely breaks 12 points within 90 km – A distance between Jawhar and Balad twons
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Key Climate Risks: Cyclones2014 cyclone impacts in Jariban Town, Dangorayo, Iskusuban, and Bay Districts in
Puntland
Source: HADMA
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Apr-1
0
Jun-
10
Aug-1
0
Oct-1
0
Dec-1
0
Feb-
11
Apr-1
1
Jun-
11
Aug-1
1
Oct-1
1
Dec-1
1
Feb-
12
Apr-1
2
Jun-
12(5,000)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Excess Deaths
Early warning timeline
Source: Checchi et al, 2013
Early Warning, Famine declarations, End of Famine
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Early Warning Products